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Global Climate Change:. Separating the Science From the Fiction. by Jim Kelley. The Natural Greenhouse. Visible Light. Visible Light. Heat. Natural Greenhouse. The Greenhouse Effect Actually Makes It Too Warm. Stratosphere. Troposphere. Natural Greenhouse (Theory). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Global Climate Global Climate Change:Change:
by by
Jim KelleyJim Kelley
Separating the ScienceSeparating the ScienceFrom the FictionFrom the Fiction
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley V
isible Light
Visible Light
Heat
Heat
The Natural GreenhouseThe Natural Greenhouse
NaturalNaturalGreenhouseGreenhouse
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
StratosphereStratosphere
TroposphereTroposphere
6 to 12 miles6 to 12 miles
TemperatureTemperature 57ºF 140ºF
Natural GreenhouseNatural Greenhouse(Theory)(Theory)
Natural GreenhouseNatural Greenhouse+Weather+Weather
(Observed}(Observed}
The Greenhouse Effect Actually Makes It Too WarmThe Greenhouse Effect Actually Makes It Too Warm
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Hot Humid Air Rises and Condenses
Evaporation Removes HeatEvaporation Removes Heat
Precipitation Releases Heat and Causes Further Rising
Cool, DryAir Sinks
Weather Moves Heat Up and Poleward
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Anecdotal Information, Anecdotal Information, Especially About Weather, Especially About Weather, Is Notoriously Unreliable!Is Notoriously Unreliable!
Point #1Point #1
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
““Things are more like Things are more like they are today than they'vethey are today than they've
ever been before”ever been before”
Dwight David EisenhowerDwight David Eisenhower
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #2Point #2
Armageddon Armageddon Is Not Is Not AlwaysAlwaysJust Around Just Around the Cornerthe Corner
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
You Are Here…Always
How Often Have You SeenHow Often Have You SeenA Figure Like This?A Figure Like This?
Time
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Because Depending on the Because Depending on the Time Window of the ObservationsTime Window of the Observations
You Could Be Here You Could Be Here
TimeTime
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
……Or Here Or Here
TimeTime
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
…Or Almost Anywhere Or Almost Anywhere
TimeTime
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
In the Case of Global Climate Change,In the Case of Global Climate Change,The Most Important, Often Unasked The Most Important, Often Unasked Question Is: Question Is:
Would We Expect the Climate to be Would We Expect the Climate to be Constant over Long Periods of Time?Constant over Long Periods of Time?
All The Evidence From GeologyAll The Evidence From GeologySays the Answer is Says the Answer is ““No.”No.”
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #3Point #3The Climate is Always ChangingThe Climate is Always Changing
The Questions Today are:The Questions Today are:
“ “How and Why Is It Changing Now”How and Why Is It Changing Now”And And
““Is the Current Change Unusual?”Is the Current Change Unusual?”
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Once People Went Outside toOnce People Went Outside toFind the Answer to these QuestionsFind the Answer to these Questions
These Days it is Popular These Days it is Popular In Climate Science to UseIn Climate Science to Use
Computer Models Computer Models (called GCM’s or (called GCM’s or
General Circulation ModelsGeneral Circulation Modelsor, incorrectly, Global Climate Models)or, incorrectly, Global Climate Models)
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #4 Point #4
Most Models Have Most Models Have Trouble ReproducingTrouble Reproducing
the Current Situation, the Current Situation, Much Less ForecastingMuch Less Forecasting
the Futurethe Future
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
R. Wood, Nature, 1 May 2008
Three Models’ “Predictions “of Three Models’ “Predictions “of Future Temperature in EuropeFuture Temperature in Europe
These are not Predictions,They are Scenarios
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #5Point #5There are Problems There are Problems
With the DataWith the DataThat Indicate That Indicate
Warming,Warming, Even in Even in the U.S.the U.S.
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1934
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1-5ºC1-5ºC
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
What About theWhat About the““Hockey Stick”?Hockey Stick”?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Original “Hockey Stick” Figure, 1998Original “Hockey Stick” Figure, 1998Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(º
C)
(ºC
)
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Of Course….You Are HereOf Course….You Are Here
Michael Mann (Penn State)Michael Mann (Penn State)And His Hockey StickAnd His Hockey Stick
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1000AD 1500AD 1900AD1000AD 1500AD 1900ADTem
pera
ture
Ch
an
ge º
CTem
pera
ture
Ch
an
ge º
C
MedievalMedievalWarm PeriodWarm Period
Little Little Ice AgeIce Age
Figure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelFigure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelOn Climate Change On Climate Change Climate ChangeClimate Change, 1995, 1995
11
00
-1-1
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
A Few Observations about Global Climate Prediction:
1.The Longer the Work Goes On,The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.
2. Climate Modeling, Using General Circulation Models (GCM’s)Is Hard Work.
3. The Role of the Ocean, Which May Be The Single Most Important Factor, Is the Least Well Understood.
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
A Few Observations about Global Climate Prediction:
1.The Longer the Work Goes On,The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.
Early models which did not includea Realistic Ocean predicted the meltingof all Polar Ice, with a Sea Level rise of 60-70 meters.
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
A Few Observations about Global Climate Prediction:
1. The Longer the Work Goes On, The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.
Subsequent models with a more Realistic Ocean, but no Biosphere Predicted Melting only West Antarctic Ice with a Sea Level Rise of 6-7 meters
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
A Few Observations about Global Climate Prediction:
1. The Longer the Work Goes On, The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.
Current Models Predict Sea Level Rise of 18-59 cm (6-23 inches)with a Doubling of Atmospheric CO2.
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Domingues, et al., Nature, 19 June 2008
Se
a L
eve
l Ris
e (m
m) 60 mm in 43 years = 5.5”/century
Satellite Data
Thermal Expansion
The Most Recent Estimates—Last June
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
In a More Recent Paper, Tad Pfeffer and Colleagues Showed that it is Physically Impossible to Get More than 800mm of Sea Level Rise inThis Century Even if Glaciers Flowed 40 Times Faster thanThey are Today
W.T. Pfeffer (U. Colorado), et al., Science, 5 September 2008
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Argo FloatsMeasure theUpper 2000mOf the Ocean
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
In This month’s Physics Today, Roger Pielke Sr. Discusses
Recent Changes in the Heat Content of the Upper 700 m of the Ocean
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
So What About So What About Carbon Dioxide (COCarbon Dioxide (CO22)? )?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Gas NameGas Name Chemical FormulaChemical Formula Percent VolumePercent Volume
NitrogenNitrogen NN22 78.08%78.08% OxygenOxygen OO22 20.95%20.95%**WaterWater HH22OO 0 to 4%0 to 4% ArgonArgon ArAr 0.93%0.93%**Carbon Carbon DioxideDioxide COCO22 0.0380%0.0380% NeonNeon NeNe 0.0018%0.0018% HeliumHelium HeHe 0.0005%0.0005%**MethaneMethane CHCH44 0.00017%0.00017% HydrogenHydrogen HH22 0.00005%0.00005%**Nitrous OxideNitrous Oxide NN22OO 0.00003%0.00003%*Ozone*Ozone OO33 0.000004%0.000004%
* variable gases* variable gases Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
Composition of the Earth’s AtmosphereComposition of the Earth’s Atmosphere
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleyThe Keeling Curve The Keeling Curve
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
““Climate Sensitivity”Climate Sensitivity”Is how much TemperatureIs how much Temperature
Rise you get when you doubleRise you get when you doubleCarbon Dioxide aboveCarbon Dioxide abovepre-industrial levels.pre-industrial levels.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the Climate Sensitivity was 1.5 to 4.5 °C,Climate Sensitivity was 1.5 to 4.5 °C,
The IPCC Fourth Assessment report (February 2007)The IPCC Fourth Assessment report (February 2007)estimates it to be 2-4.5 ºCestimates it to be 2-4.5 ºC
With a most likely value of 3ºCWith a most likely value of 3ºC
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleyLowenstein and Dimicco (SUNY, Binghamton) Science, 29 September 2006Lowenstein and Dimicco (SUNY, Binghamton) Science, 29 September 2006
Nahcolite, Soda AshNahcolite, Soda AshNaHCONaHCO33
Only Occurs at COOnly Occurs at CO22
Concentrations > 1125 ppmConcentrations > 1125 ppm
Piceance Creek Basin, ColoradoPiceance Creek Basin, Colorado
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
This Presence of Nahcolite in theThis Presence of Nahcolite in theGreen River Formation IndicatesGreen River Formation Indicates
That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, The Level of Atmospheric COThe Level of Atmospheric CO2 2
Was At Least 3 Times the Current LevelWas At Least 3 Times the Current Level
This Presence of Nahcolite in theThis Presence of Nahcolite in theGreen River Formation IndicatesGreen River Formation Indicates
That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, The Level of Atmospheric COThe Level of Atmospheric CO2 2
Was At Least 3 Times the Current LevelWas At Least 3 Times the Current Level
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
~20 to 35 ºC ~20 to 35 ºC (68 to 95 ºF)(68 to 95 ºF)
in Wyoming and Coloradoin Wyoming and Colorado
This Curves Shows theThis Curves Shows theTemperatures in theTemperatures in the
Geological Past as Cooler Geological Past as Cooler Or Warmer than the PresentOr Warmer than the Present
0 to 23 ºC0 to 23 ºC(32 to 74 ºF)(32 to 74 ºF)
In Wyoming TodayIn Wyoming Today
00 1.81.8
6565
225225
57057010001000
20002000300030004000400046004600
Million
Years
Ag
oM
illion
Years
Ag
o
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
One Big Question is:One Big Question is:Does a Rise in CODoes a Rise in CO22 Cause Cause
Temperature to RiseTemperature to RiseOr is it the Other Way Around?Or is it the Other Way Around?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Data From Antarctica at the End of the Ice Age 9 Data From Antarctica at the End of the Ice Age 9
Caillon, Caillon, et al.et al., , ScienceScience, 14 March 2003 , 14 March 2003
235 240 245 250235 240 245 250
280280
260260
240240
220220
200200Carb
on
Dio
xid
e,
pp
mC
arb
on
Dio
xid
e,
pp
m
Tem
pera
ture
pro
xy,
Ar
Tem
pera
ture
pro
xy,
Ar
CoCo22 Lags LagsTemperatureTemperatureBy 800 yearsBy 800 years
Thousands of years agoThousands of years ago
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
N. Pearson and Martin R. Palmer, Nature 406, 695-699 (17 August 2000)
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years
Age (mya)
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400CO2(ppmv)
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
Incre
ase in
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(%
)
Richard Lindzen (MIT), Proc. Erice Meeting, 2005
Increasing CO2 ChangesClimate Logarithmically,Not Linearly
Doubling CO2 ChangesThe Atmosphere by only 2%
Linear Change
Logarithmic Change
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
It is Difficult to Compare the RoleIt is Difficult to Compare the RoleOf Water Vapor to Other Of Water Vapor to Other
Greenhouse Gases but the Greenhouse Gases but the Effects are Roughly:Effects are Roughly:
Water Vapor Water Vapor 36-70% 36-70%Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide 9-26% 9-26%MethaneMethane 4-9% 4-9%Ozone Ozone 3-7% 3-7%
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
What About What About The Sun?The Sun?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
%Change
S=Solar IrradianceS=Solar Irradiance
T=Global TemperatureT=Global Temperature
Peter Foukal (Heliophysics, Inc.) EOS, June 2003Peter Foukal (Heliophysics, Inc.) EOS, June 2003
In 2003 Peter Foukal Suggested that PerhapsIn 2003 Peter Foukal Suggested that PerhapsOne Half of Earth Warming Could be Caused One Half of Earth Warming Could be Caused
by the Warming of the Sunby the Warming of the Sun
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 19801880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
14.314.3
14.214.2
14.114.1
14.014.0
13.913.9
13.813.8
13.713.7
13.613.6
+0.2+0.2
+0.1+0.1
0.00.0
-0.1-0.1
-0.2-0.2
-0.3-0.3
-0.4-0.4
-0.5-0.5Tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)Tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)S
ola
r Win
d A
ctiv
ity (a
-a in
dex
Sola
r Win
d A
ctiv
ity (a
-a in
dex
Global Temperature vs. Solar Wind StrengthGlobal Temperature vs. Solar Wind Strength
Mathiesen, Mathiesen, Global Warming,Global Warming, Fig 6.5 Fig 6.5
KrakatoaKrakatoa
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Le Mouél, et al., EPSL 232, 273 (2005), ElsevierSee, Pasotti, Science, 11 January, 2008
Cosmic Ray Flux and Solar Irradiance vs. Climate
Magnetic Field StrengthSolar IrradianceGlobal Temperature
“AnomalousWarming”
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(K
) 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
Scafetta, N. (Duke), and West, B., (U.S. Army Research Office}Physics Today, March 2008
Global Temperature Anomaly and Total Solar Irradiance
Temperature compared to
1890-1910
TemperatureFiltered
2 Solar Cycle Models
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20001880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
14.314.3
14.214.2
14.114.1
14.014.0
13.913.9
13.813.8
13.713.7
13.613.6
Tem
pera
ture
(ºC)
Tem
pera
ture
(ºC)
Mathiesen, Mathiesen, Global Warming,Global Warming, Fig 6.4 Fig 6.4
77
66
55
44
33
22
11
00
Glo
bal C
arb
on
Em
issio
ns (
GT/Y
rG
lob
al C
arb
on
Em
issio
ns (
GT/Y
rGlobal Temperature vs. Carbon EmissionsGlobal Temperature vs. Carbon Emissions
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleySolanski, Solanski, et. al.et. al. (Max-Plank Inst), (Max-Plank Inst), NatureNature, 28 October 2004, 28 October 2004
We Know That for the Past 65 Years We Have We Know That for the Past 65 Years We Have Been in an Unusually Active Period For Sunspots, Been in an Unusually Active Period For Sunspots,
Which Increases Outgoing Solar EnergyWhich Increases Outgoing Solar Energy
8080
6060
4040
2020
00Su
nsp
ot
Nu
mb
er
Su
nsp
ot
Nu
mb
er
10001000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20001200 1400 1600 1800 2000
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
One of the Lines of Evidence for the Sun’s Role Comes from
Apparent Climate Change on Mars
ErosionOf thePolar
Ice Cap
OdysseyImages, JPL
1999 2001
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Richard Lindzen (MIT), Proc. Erice Meeting, 2005
1965 1970 1975 1980 19851965 1970 1975 1980 1985
5050
4040
3030
200200
100100
00
Su
nsp
ot
Nu
mb
er
No.
of
Rep
ub
lican
sIn
th
e U
.S.
Sen
ate
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Two Weeks Ago, in the 7 NovemberTwo Weeks Ago, in the 7 NovemberIssue of Issue of Science Science MagazineMagazine
A Team of Investigators Reported on A Team of Investigators Reported on A Stalagmite From a Cave in ChinaA Stalagmite From a Cave in China
Which Recorded the Strength of the Which Recorded the Strength of the Chinese Monsoon for 1810 yearsChinese Monsoon for 1810 years
Wanxiang CaveWudu County
Gansu ProvinceZhang, P., Zhang, P., et al., et al.,
ScienceScience7 November7 November2008, p. 9402008, p. 940
DACP MWP LIA
CWPWet
Dry
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWPWet
Dry
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Longxi Drought Record
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWPWet
Dry
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWPWet
Dry
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
Tang MingSong
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWPWet
Dry
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
Retreat
European Glaciers
Advance
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWP
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
Warm
Chinese Temperature (Model)Cool
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
Tem
pera
ture
ºC
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWP
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
Warm
Mann Temperature (Hockey Stick Model)Cool
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
An
om
aly
ºC
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
DACP MWP LIA
CWP
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)
Chinese Monsoon Intensity
Solar Modulation
1000
500
0
Sola
r Mod
ula
tion
Fu
nctio
n (M
eV
))
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Is It Really Is It Really GlobalGlobal Warming? Warming?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Change In Temperature1958-2000
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Remember that the OceanIs 1000 Times More Important That the Atmosphere inDetermining the Earth’s Climate
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #6Point #6 Climate Change Climate Change
Of the Predicted MagnitudeOf the Predicted MagnitudeIs Not UnusualIs Not Unusual
Nor UnprecedentedNor Unprecedented
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger Pielke, Jr.
Professor in the Environmental Studies Professor in the Environmental Studies Program and a Fellow of the Cooperative Program and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES). Environmental Sciences (CIRES). (University of Colorado At Boulder). (University of Colorado At Boulder).
Roger Pielke, Sr., Senior Research Scientist CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder and Professor Emeritus Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Roger Pielke, Sr.Roger Pielke, Sr.Points OutPoints Out
That The TypicalThat The TypicalPattern of ClimatePattern of Climate
Change is Change is Rapid WarmingRapid Warming
Followed by Followed by Slow CoolingSlow Cooling
At AllAt AllTime ScalesTime Scales
0 thousand years ago 1500 thousand years ago 150
30,000 years ago 45,00030,000 years ago 45,000
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
15ºC in 100-1000 years = 1.5º- 15ºC per Century15ºC in 100-1000 years = 1.5º- 15ºC per CenturyCurrent warming is at about 0.5ºC over theCurrent warming is at about 0.5ºC over the
last centurylast century
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the Climate Sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average Climate Sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average
surface temperature is projected to increase surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100,
with a most likely figure of 3ºCwith a most likely figure of 3ºC
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Wally BroeckerWally Broecker
Newberry Professor ofNewberry Professor ofEarth & Environmental SciencesEarth & Environmental Sciences
Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryLamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia University Columbia University
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Wally Broecker’s Ocean “Conveyer Belt””
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Locations of the World’s Marine Science Centers
?
?? ?
?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
In December 2005, Harry Bryden, et al.,
(National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, U.K.)
Nature, Claimed to have shown a 30% Decrease
in the MOC, Leading to a Spate of Newspaper Articles
About an Impending New Ice Age in Europe
In December 2005, Harry Bryden, et al.,
(National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, U.K.)
Nature, Claimed to have shown a 30% Decrease
in the MOC, Leading to a Spate of Newspaper Articles
About an Impending New Ice Age in Europe
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
It has since been shown (Science, 23 August 2007)
by the same authors, Bryden et al., that the Change Reported was
part of a Natural Fluctuation and That the MOC had Speeded Back Up.
The Name of Dr. Bryden’sResearch Program is RAPID
(Rapid Climate Change Program)
It has since been shown (Science, 23 August 2007)
by the same authors, Bryden et al., that the Change Reported was
part of a Natural Fluctuation and That the MOC had Speeded Back Up.
The Name of Dr. Bryden’sResearch Program is RAPID
(Rapid Climate Change Program)
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
European readers should be reassuredthat the Gulf Stream's existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.
European readers should be reassuredthat the Gulf Stream's existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.
C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601
Real questions exist about conceivable changes in
the ocean circulation and its climate consequences.
However, such discussions are not helped by hyperbole and
alarmism. The occurrence of a climate
state without the Gulf Stream any
time soon — within tens of millions of years — has a
probability of little more than zero.
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Keeleyside, et al., Nature, 1 May 1008
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Smith, et al,., Science, 10 August 2007
North Atlantic Temperatures
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
What about the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
(the IPCC), winner of the2007 Nobel Peace Prize shared with
Al Gore?
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
Point #7Point #7Climate WarmingClimate Warming
Is not all BadIs not all Bad
e.g.,e.g.,Every Year 5 Times as Many PeopleEvery Year 5 Times as Many PeopleDie from the Cold as Die of the HeatDie from the Cold as Die of the Heat
Recommended readingRecommended reading““Cool It”, by Bjorn LomborgCool It”, by Bjorn Lomborg
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What Can We What Can We Do About It?Do About It?
This is Called This is Called ““Adaptation”Adaptation”
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A Word About Time ScalesA Word About Time Scales
If you Stopped Pumping COIf you Stopped Pumping CO2 2 todaytodayHow Long would it take the AtmosphereHow Long would it take the Atmosphere
To Recover to Pre-Industrial levels?To Recover to Pre-Industrial levels?
Compare Ozone Reducing Gases, CFC’s, etc.Compare Ozone Reducing Gases, CFC’s, etc.And Carbon DioxideAnd Carbon Dioxide
Point #8We’re Going to do the Experiment
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The Montreal Accord was ratified in 1987The Montreal Accord was ratified in 1987Ozone depletion was predicted to have a timeOzone depletion was predicted to have a time
scale of order 100 years. scale of order 100 years. We are now seeing a flattening out of a stillWe are now seeing a flattening out of a still
rising curverising curve
1987 2008 2037 1987 2008 2037 20872087
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For Greenhouse Warming, the comparable For Greenhouse Warming, the comparable Time Scale is of order 1000 yearsTime Scale is of order 1000 years
The Kyoto accord took effect The Kyoto accord took effect in February, 2005in February, 2005
2005 2008 2500 2005 2008 2500 3005 3005
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Status of the Kyoto AccordStatus of the Kyoto AccordAs of December 2006As of December 200620072007
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So What Are We Doing So What Are We Doing About Developing AlternateAbout Developing Alternate
Energy Technology?Energy Technology?
Not Much. At Least in the Federal GovernmentNot Much. At Least in the Federal GovernmentIn the Carter Administraton UnderstoodIn the Carter Administraton Understood
The Importance of this Work.The Importance of this Work.Later Administrations, Republican Later Administrations, Republican
And Democratic, including Clinton-And Democratic, including Clinton-GoreGoreHave Not.Have Not.
Industry is Doing Much More.Industry is Doing Much More.
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20002000
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001975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Total Government Energy R&D InvestmentTotal Government Energy R&D Investment
USUS
JapanJapan
GermanyGermany
Clery, Clery, ScienceScience, 9 Feb. 2007, p. 782, 9 Feb. 2007, p. 782
CarterCarter
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Al Gore says He was Inspired byAl Gore says He was Inspired byRoger Revelle.Roger Revelle.
Roger was an Roger was an important contributor important contributor
to the Greenhouse Gas Ideato the Greenhouse Gas IdeaIn the late ’50’sIn the late ’50’s
Gore’s Contact with RogerGore’s Contact with RogerAmounted to a CoupleAmounted to a Couple
Of Lectures in the RequiredOf Lectures in the RequiredFreshman Science ClassFreshman Science Class
……He Got a “D” in the ClassHe Got a “D” in the Class
Ashok KhoslaTaught the Course
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The whole aim of practical politicsis to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)by menacing it with an endless seriesof hoblgoblins, all of them imaginary.
Henry Louis Mencken
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Richard Lindzen (MIT), Proc. Erice Meeting, 2005
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Finally, a little personal perspective…Finally, a little personal perspective…
When I’m at work,When I’m at work, I dress like thisI dress like this
And my office And my office Looks like thisLooks like this
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O. I. F.O. I. F.““Oceanography Oceanography
is Fun”is Fun”
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This is the This is the Way We Have DoneWay We Have Done
Oceanography Oceanography in the Pastin the Past
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Working on aWorking on aRolling DeckRolling DeckFor Months For Months
At SeaAt Sea
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You Learn a LotYou Learn a LotAbout the OceanAbout the Ocean
And And How She BehavesHow She Behaves
And RespondsAnd Responds
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Some People’sSome People’sIdea ofIdea of
OceanographyOceanographyIn 2008In 2008
A Ship?A Ship?What’s a Ship?What’s a Ship?
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““Even When All the Experts AgreeEven When All the Experts AgreeThey May Well be Mistaken”They May Well be Mistaken”
Bertrand RussellBertrand Russell
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"Only an insignificant fraction of scientists deny the global warming crisis. The time for debate is over. The science is settled."
…Al Gore, 1992Anyone who says “the science is settled”
reveals his complete ignorance of thefundamental nature of Science…Science is
always provisional!…J.C.K., 2008
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1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20081990 2008
Incontrovertible Evidence of Global Warming
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So if you really want to be prepared…So if you really want to be prepared…
Thank You!Thank You!