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GlobalChemicalsManufacturingShi6stotheAppalachianBasin
TheShaleRevolu,on3.0
TomGellrichTopLineAnaly2cs
©2015TopLineAnaly2cs.Allrightsreserved.
Oct11,2017UAcaSummitV–CantonOH
1973EnergyShock
SourceEIA
3.2xIncrease
1979EnergyShock
SourceEIA
2.0xIncrease
Manufacturing
30%-
2008–2012ShaleShock
3.8xDecrease
SourceEIANaturalGas
Manufacturing
30%+
NorthAmericanAdvantage
Source:WorldbankPinkSheetAveragenaturalgasprices$/MBtu
20164Q
$2.5 $4.6
$6.9$3.0
2008
$10.3 $11.4
$14.4$1.3
NaturalGas
ShaleGasDisappoin2ngGlobalExperience
• Europe–bannedoruneconomic– FranceGermanyScotlandoutrightbans– Polanduneconomic
• SouthAfricagiantKarooBasin’stechnicallyrecoverableshalegasresourcedowngraded30xfrom390tcfto13tcf
• Brazilhighlyan2cipatedValedoJuruáfieldnowbanned• SaudiArabiawithalltheresourcestechnical,economicand
governmentfinallylookingtobringonfirstShaleGasfield• China’sshalegasdepositsdroppedby6%in2016,asnonew
shalegasdepositswerefound
ShaleGasdrivestheChemicalIndustry
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
ChemicalFeedstock
Methane
EthanePropane
Fuel
TypicalShaleGas
Source: Typical Shale Gas: Western Marcellus Shale Gas: Chesapeake Investor Presentation 2011
EthyleneEconomics
Source:NYMEXFeb2nd20152.3xDelta
EthyleneCost US ChinaNaturalGascosts $/MMBTU 2.6CrudeOilcosts $/BBL 54Equivalent $/ton 128 521Ra2oforonetonethylene 1.29 2.98EthaneFeedstockcosts $/ton 165 1552Catalyst+Other $/ton 2 2ByProductCredits $/ton 108 1102U2li2es $/ton 94 127DirectCosts $/ton 167 172TotalethyleneCost $/ton 321 750 Typicalethylenemargin 2.50% Transferpriceforethylene $/ton 329 769
Source:NYMEXSep2015
ChangesinGlobalIndustry
• M&A:Axiall(GeorgiaGulf+PPGChlor-Alkali)• JV:PPTGlobalChem+MarubeniCorp• Doublingdownoninvestments:LyondellBasell• Reloca2ngexis2ngplantstoU.S.:USMethanol• MiddleEastinvestmentinU.S.:SABIC• Commercializa2onofnewtechnologies:PDHBDH• European+Asianshutdowns:TotalCarling• IncreasedNAinvestments:Formosa• Non–GulfCoastU.S.investment:Shell• U.S.Ethaneexports:Ineos• U.S.BackwardIntegra2on:BASF
“duetoU.S.shalegas”
GlobalChemicalShin
“Thefeedstockcostfornewcrackersin[SaudiArabia]willbearound$6/MBtuasthere’snotenoughethaneavailability…thiscostwillbemuchhigherthantheUSgasprice,whichiscurrentlyat$3.50-4.00/MBtu”
– JamalMalaikah,PresidentandCOO,Na2onalPetrochemicalIndustrialCo(NATPET),Apr2013
GameOver
InvestmentShin
CancelsAl-KaraanaQatar$6.3BCracker1/2015ApprovesBeaverCounty$5B+Cracker6/2016
Startsupw/DowChemical$20BSadara8/2016Announcesw/ExxonMobil$10BGulfCoast6/2016
U.S.ChemicalConstruc2onInvestment
Source:ACCanalysisofCensusBureaudata
$Billions
50%ofallmanufacturinginvestment
ChemicalIndustryU.S.Investments2012to2022
• $164billionincapitalinvestment– 264projects– 70millionmetrictonsofchemicals
• Jobs:– 738,000permanent– 316,000temporary
• $301billionincreaseeconomicoutput• $106billionincreaseinchemicalshipments
Source:AmericanChemistryCouncilMarch2016
60%foreign
50%capacity+
Howdoestranslateinglobaltradeandothermanufacturing
• Lowcostchemicalsandplas2csgointoeverything
• UShasincreasinglaborpool,EuropeandChinahavedecreasinglaborpool
• UShaslongestablishedmanufacturingknowhow,technicaleduca2onandacceptanceofmanufacturingasriseofthemiddleclass
• UShasuntappedinfrastructureofbrownfieldabandonedrustbeltsites
• Costtoexportfinishedproductsisverylow–shipsgobackemptyonenneedingballast
AppalachianBasinPlas2cs
Logis2csAdvantage- LocalShaleGas- LocalcustomerdemandLegacyAdvantage- Technicalknowledge- Equipmentsuppliers
Source:ShellGraphic
AppalachianBasinLogis2cs
Ethaneadvantage$12/Bbl• M.Belvieuprice5/16/17$26/Bbl• CosttransportviaATEX$14/Bbl
PolyethyleneLLDPEadvantage$0.07/lb• Texasspot5/12/17$0.60/lb• Costrailtransport$0.07/lb
Workingcapitalimpactofinventoryinpipeline/railnotfactoredin
AppalachianBasinEthane
0
200
400
600
800
MarinerE
ATEX
Shell
Rejectedby2020
Rejectedfuture
MarinerW
5.5ConceivableWorldScaleCrackers
1.0Shell2.5Rejectedby20201.3Rejectedfuturegrowth0.7MarinerE
2.3UnlikelyPotenAalWorldScaleCrackers
0.5MarinerW1.8ATEX
1,000sBbl
Worlddemandisfor4to5newglobalscalecrackersperyear
AppalachianStorageHub
• Keyenablinginfrastructure– Storageplusinterconnectedpipelines– NGLs– Chemicalbuildingblocks
• Liquiditywin/winsuppliers/customers• Déjàvu:keydriverbehindU.S.GulfCoastgrowth• Minimizesanother‘Katrina’economicimpact• Reducesriskfornewchemicalplants• NumerousbillsinCongressandDOEsupport• MountainNGLmovingaheadrapidly
AppalachianBasin
• Shellbroketheice– Valida2onofloca2on– Demonstratevaluetothepublic– Localcommunitysupport– Buildoutof‘ecosystem’
• SuppliersandLaborpool• Voca2onaland2yeardegreeprograms• Upgradeofroad,railandbargeinfrastructure
• Nextprojectwillbemucheasier• Shellisnotdoneyet…
NolargeflatsitesintheAppalachianBasin
• Requirescrea,vethinking–canbemanaged
• Acquireandcombinemul2plesites• Repurposeandmoveexis2ngsiteholderstoother
loca2ons• Investincrea2ngflatland• Separateeleva2ons,forseparatepurposes:
– OfficeandLabs– RawMaterial– FinishedGoods– Truckpark– Cracker– Polyethyleneunit
NositesinUSGulfCoast>50neleva2on
Theriskofhurricanesandfloodingisfarlessmanageable.PetrochemicalindustryisasmuchdrivenbyriskasitisbyROI
Katrina,Harvey,Nate
• Onceinathousandyears?Twiceinadecade?• Harveyforcesshutdownof54%USethylene
IHSMarkitSep5,2017
• ‘HurricaneHarveyHasCrippledtheFounda2onofU.S.Plas2cProduc2on’FortuneSep2,2017
• Na2onalimpact“U.S.industrialoutputplunged0.9percentinAugust…HurricaneHarvey'sdamagetotheoilrefining,plas2csandchemicalsindustries”FederalReserveSept15,2017
Katrina,Harvey,Nate
• CostofCrackershutdown– Controlledshutdown+hurricaneoverfacility+cleanup+repair+tes2ng+startup=18days
– 10%ofcapacitys2llofflineat24days– 18daysisalossof5%ofannualproduc2on– Replacedequipment+over2me+outsourcedaddi2onallabor+disposalofoffspecproduc2on=$?
– Longtermlossofcustomers$?– Netbo�omlinenega2veeasilyinto8figuresperfacility
• Sameoutsourcedworkforcealreadystretchedwithnewcrackers,maintenanceonexis2ngcrackers,nowonclean-upandrepairfromHarvey
• Addi2onalworkforceshortagesduetodemandforHarveyresiden2al+retail+commercialrecoveryefforts
• Crackerexpansionssloweddownun2lgrounddries
HarveyEnvironmentalImpact
CHEMICAL AMOUNT(kg)
Sulfurdioxide 98,380
VolaAleorganiccarboncompounds,unspecified 67,575
Carbonmonoxide 52,180
Butane 38,667
Nitrogenoxides 34,348
Isopentane 23,582
Ethylene 16,343
Propane 11,582
Pentene 11,020
Isobutane 11,003
2-Methylpentane 9,524
Pentane 5,482
Propene 5,349
Ethane 5,039
2,2-Methylbutene 4,626
Methane 3,900
1,3-Butadiene 3,519
Hexane 3,175
trans-2-Hexene 2,494
Cyclohexane 2,358
trans-2-Butene 2,277
Butene 1,973
3-Methylhexane 1,859
Hydrogensulfide 1,842
2-cis-Butene 1,814
Toluene 1,769
Isobutylene 1,350
2,2,3-Trimethylpentane 1,270
Methylcyclohexane 1,224
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane 1,179
1-Butene 1,043
Xylene 998
Cyclopentane 680
Heptane 680
Benzene 566
2,2,5-Trimethylhexane 500
Isoprene 500
1,cis-2,trans-3-Trimethylcyclopentane 500
Cyclopentene 454
Source:Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
Source: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality August 27-30, 2017
Arkema‘supplychaineffect’
• ArkemaCrosbyTXproducesorganicperoxides
• Organicperoxidesarepolymeriza2onini2ators
• Arkemaisleadingproducer,withCrosbyTXtheirflagshipfacility
• Floodingofthefacilitycausedlossofrefrigera2on• Monthsofinventorydecomposed• Shortagepolymeriza2onini2atorscauseshortagesofpolymer• Onefacilityinahighlyintegratedindustrycanhavearipple
effecttoen2resupplychain
Harvey…acalltoac2on?
• ImpliesashintoAppalachianBasin• AppalachianBasinisalreadycostadvantaged• Storagehubprovidescri2calelementtoreducerisk
• Shellisleadingtheway,proac2velyengagingthecommunity,brininginsuppliers,developingapipelineoftrainedworkers
• Harveyisjustanotherelementincreasingthea�rac2venessoftheAppalachianBasin
ChemicalIndustryDrivestheNextWave
Shal
e G
as
Ethane
Methane
Propane
Butane
Ammonia
Methanol
Ethylene
Propylene
N-Butylene
Isobutylene
MarketSectors
ApparelandAccessories
BeveragesandTobaccoProducts
Chemicals
ComputerandElectronics
FabricatedMetalProducts
FoodandKindredProducts
LeatherandAlliedProducts
Machinery,ExceptElectrical
NonmetalicMineralProducts
Paper
PetroleumandCoalProducts
Pharmaceu2cals
Plas2csandRubberProducts
PrimaryMetalManufacturing
PrintedMa�erandRelatedProducts
Tex2leandFabrics
Tex2leMillProducts
Transporta2onEquipment
WoodProducts
ProductCategories
Fer2lizers
Adhesives/Sealants
AlkydResins
Solvents
CorrosionInhibitors
Tex2les
Inks,Adhesives
Shampoos,Detergents,Soaps
Paints
Coa2ngs
Pipes,Hoses,WireCoa2ng
Coolant,An2freeze
Films,Packaging,Bo�les
PaintRemover
Plas2cs
TiresandRubber
LubricantAddi2ves
Solvent,IndustrialCleaners
>98%
Source:PwCandTopLineAnaly2cs
NextWaveSh
ale
Gas
Ethane
Methane
Propane
Butane
Ammonia
Methanol
Ethylene
Propylene
N-Butylene
Isobutylene
Source:PwCandTopLineAnaly2cs
Polyethylene
EDC
EPDM
Ethanol
Alpha Olefins
Vinyl Acetate
Ethylene Glycol
Ethanolamine
Ethyl Oxylates
Glycol Ether
Chloro Ethanes
Polyvinyl Chloride
ShaleGasConclusions
• TheU.S.ShaleGasrevolu2onhascausedaGlobalChemicalIndustryrevolu2on
• ChemicalsandmanufacturedproductscanbeproducedfarcheaperinNA
• Implica2onsaredisrup2veandofferopportunity
• AppalachianBasinisthenewfron2er
• Leaderslead,isyourorganiza2onmobilized?
TopLineAnaly2csWeassistcompaniesinaddressingthechallengesandopportuni2estocompeteinthechanginglandscapebroughtonbytheshalegasrevolu2on
TomGellrich www.TopLineAnaly2cs.com 267-205-1263
Ques2ons?