Global Challenges for the 21 st Century Dr. Hongjoo Hahm World Bank Office Croatia Challenge 1: Scarcity of Resources 4 (Constant Birth Rate Scenario) 5 Population In the next 40 years, the global population will grow by almost 2.5 billion and more than half of those will live in developing countries Source: UNPD 2007 World Population 1950 2050 (Medium Case) 6 7 8 9 10 Washington Post IIIIII 11 Washington Post 12 Gapminder Fertility vs. Income per capita 13 14 15 Gapminder Fertility vs. Girls Education 16 17 World Urban Population Source: UNHSP/Basics1/02 In 1950, of worlds population from developing countries In 1950, 68% of worlds population from developing countries In 2010, 85% of world population from developing countries In 2008, one-half 50%of the worlds people lived in cities By 2050, two-thirds 66% of the worlds people will live in cities 18 An Urban World URBAN DEVELOPING URBAN DEVELOPED RURAL POPULATION IN BILLIONS IIIIII 19 Global Population Density by 2015 Source: Poverty Mapping Urban Rural Population Database, United Nations FAO, 2005 IIIIII 20 Urbanization: Mega-Cities IIIIII Map source:Megacities today Cover just 2% of the Earths land surfaceCover just 2% of the Earths land surface 75% of industrial wood use75% of industrial wood use 60% of human water use60% of human water use Nearly 80% of all human produced carbon emissionsNearly 80% of all human produced carbon emissions Megacities tomorrow By 2025 more than 300 cities worldwide will have more than 1 million peopleBy 2025 more than 300 cities worldwide will have more than 1 million people The struggle to achieve an environmentally sustainable economy for the 21st century will be won or lost in the world's urban areasThe struggle to achieve an environmentally sustainable economy for the 21st century will be won or lost in the world's urban areas Source: www3.sympatico.ca/truegrowth/demographics.htm 21 22 Global Population: Rising Demand for Resources Too Many (especially in developing world) Too Old (especially in developed world) Too Urban (globally) Global Migration 23 Population and Human Development Needs Of 6.5 billion people in the world today 1.6 billion lack basic energy services 2.5 billion use wood, dung or other biomass to cook their food 2.6 billion people lack access to clean water and sanitation By 2050, almost 2.5 billion people will be born. Is there enough to go around? IIIIII 24 Resources 25 Scarce resources 26 27 Global Water Scarcity UNEP IIIIII 28 IIIIII 29library/mixed/Irrigation.JPGIIIIII 30 University of California How Much? How Much? 1 kg of lettuce 174 liters 1 kg of tomatoes 174 liters 1 kg of potatoes 180 liters 1 kg of wheat 188 liters 1 kg of carrots 250 liters 1 kg of apples 370 liters 1 kg of chicken 6,170 liters 1 kg of pork 12,340 liters IIIIII 31 - 1/3 of arable land used for cattle grazing. - 1/3 of methane produced by cows - 1/3 of grain produced used for cow fodder One kilogram of grain-fed beef needs at least 22,710 liters of water IIIIII 32 33 the greenhouse gas emissions arising every year from the production and consumption of cheeseburgers is roughly the amount emitted by 6.5 million to 19.6 million SUVs 34 "In a world where an estimated one in every six people goes hungry every day, the politics of meat consumption are the politics of meat consumption are increasingly heated, since meat production is an inefficient use of grain ... Continued growth in meat output is dependent on feeding grains to animals, creating competition for grain between affluent meat eaters and the world's poor. Worldwatch Institute IIIIII 35 36 Keeping Up? Keeping Up? Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows: LTG 30 year update 2004 IIIIII 37 Losing Focus on Food Production Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; International Rice Research Institute; US Department of Agriculture; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; via the World Bank. Via the New York Times IIIIII 38 Food vs. Energy Source: Commodity Research Bureau IIIIII 39 The Times The Times March 7, 2008 Rush for bio fuels threatens starvation on a global scale In 2010, more than 1/3 of US corn acreage was earmarked for bio ethanol IIIIII 40 Estimated growth in fertilizer use IIIIII 41 Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal 42 43 Deforestation Forest cover 1996 Forests Likely to Survive Without Human Assistance Source: Bryant. D., Nielsen. D. and Tangeley. L. (1997) IIIIII 44 Satellite image of Global Burning with inset of Indonesia taken 2009 *Source: ATSR Fire Atlas, European Space Agency 45 Primary energy consumption 46 Primary Energy Consumption 47 Fossil fuel use Source: EIA 48 Peak Oil IIIIII 49 Proven oil reserves 50 World Oil Consumption 51 Asia-Pacific Oil Consumption Source: University of Cambridge 52 Proven Gas Reserves 53 World gas consumption 54 Coal production and consumption 55 Hydrocarbon energy and CO2 56 57 GapMinder C02 output per capita vs. Income per capita 58 59 Options for change 60 Challenge 2: Climate Change 61 Climate Change 62 Carbon concentration in the atmosphere today is higher than it has been at any point in the last 66,000 years New Scientist IIIIII 63 64 o C per decade ( ) Source: IPCC AR4 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 Ecological Footprint 1996 and Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2004 IIIIII 73 So. What do we do? 74 Global Challenges of 21 st Century The biggest challenge ahead is how to manage water resources faced with competition and climate change to meet rising food needs while protecting the access of poor and vulnerable people. Kevin Watkins. Lead Author - Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water crisis IIIIII 75 Adapting to a changing world Any one of these challenges alone is cause for global action. In combination they exacerbate existing threats and create new ones. Development strategies must take into account all factors facing the world today. The need to act now is imperative IIIIII 76 77 Coming soon.? Significantly increased global migration Growth of urban agriculture Eco cities Retro fitting/climate proofing infrastructure Increased seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers Increased frequency of extreme weather events Prioritized environmental flows Declining/increasing hydro power potential Improved watershed management IIIIII 78 Pricing of embedded water in food/products Rising cost pressure on carbon intensive pumping and treatment methods Mass desalination Efficiency gains/loss reduction Large scale domestic & industrial rainwater catchment Increased water re-use Increased politicisation Heightened regional/national tensions Coming soon.? IIIIII 79 Global Challenges for the 21 st Century Dr. Hongjoo Hahm World Bank Office Croatia