Global Challenges and Water Security: Threats and Opportunities presented by Dr. Ismail Serageldin as the GWP annual lecture

Global Challenges And water Security:

Threats and Opportunities

Ismail SerageldinGWP – Stockholm 4 September 2010

Outline

• Prologue:• Global Challenges:

– Climate Change– Hunger– Health

• The Water Dimension:– How Scarce Is Water?– How Much For Agriculture?– Water And Sanitation– On Reform

• Actions To Take• Envoi

Prologue

1995:

“The wars of this century have been for Oil, but the wars of the next century will be for water…”

Ismail SerageldinStockholm – 6 August 1995

“…unless we change the way we manage water!”


1996:

1996:GWP

"Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend."

— Albert Camus(1913-1960)

2010 1996

2020

1996

2010

“…unless we change the way we manage water!”


A Global Consensus was formed

UN Millennium Summit 2000

The MDGs

Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empower

women4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other

diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for

development

But Our Distorted Values Continue To Prevail … For now!

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Distorted Values

With >1 Billion Persons Hungry

18

Military Spending is 14X more than Development Assistance…

21

22

23

Books Or Bombs?

Yet

• Do you know what astonished me most in the world? The inability of force to create anything.

• In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind.

– Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

Obvious Reminders…• No security without peace• No peace without justice• No justice without equity• No equity without inclusion

Enormous GAPS between Rich and poor… And GROWING in most countries

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## 31

$2.20 / day $0.90 / day

Extreme Insensitivity…

Modern Luxury

Modern Luxury

Modern Luxury

Modern Excess!

Solid Gold $4.8m Toilet

Source: Japan Times 4 October 2009

That while some 2 billion people do not have proper sanitation!

But, despite that, we shall succeed!

Global Challenges

Global Challenges

• Climate Change

• Hunger

• Health

Global Challenges

• Climate Change

• Hunger

• Health

Climate ChangeThe Most serious Issue Facing Humanity

GHG emissions are a key contributor

Hurricane Bonnie

Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”?

NO!

Should we be concerned?

YES!

Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

How serious is the problem?

VERY!

Sea Level Rise

Last 30 Years: 1.8 mm / yr

Last 10 Years: 3.1 mm / yr

The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of salts

Reaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts

Impact on Nile Delta

Queuing for water… The new realities

Climate Change and

Food Security:

Changes in Length of

growing period 2000-2005

Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15

Extreme Variability : Africa’s Burden

Kenya: Annual Rainfall Variation about the Average

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and

Desertification

Drought

Ecosystem Collapse

So why do people deny the issue?

Why do governments refuse to act?

Lobbying Congress

• Between 2003 and 2008 Lobbyists against climate change increases from 320 to 1600

• Meantime, environmental lobbyists increased from 55 to 160

• So anti-climate change lobby deployed 3 lobbyists per legislator and 10 times more than environmentalists lobbyists.

CopenhagenDecember 2009

We need urgent action on bothMitigation

&Adaptation

Mitigation: Reducing Emissions

Global Challenges

• Climate Change

• Hunger

• Health

HUNGER!Over one billion persons today!

Over One Billion persons are chronically malnourished!

Drought

Drought Devastates Agriculture

We observe…

• Floods in Pakistan

• Droughts in Russia

• Hurricanes hitting the Carribean and the USA

We observe…



• Hurricanes hitting the Carribean and the USA

Droughts and Floods?

Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist

We observe…



• Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

Hurricanes and floods

in USA

All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on

food production

The Food on which we all depend

That leads to More Hunger

Wheat Global Production and Consumption

(Millions of tons)

Years Produced Russia Consumed Stocks

• 2006-07 596 45 616 131• 2007-08 611 49 617

125• 2008-09 683 64 643

166• 2009-10 680 62 652

187• 2010-11 646 45 665

175Source: USDA 2010

World Food Price Index(Source: BBC 3 September 2010)

98

176152

191

2003 201020092008

700 July-August

480 June

So… TODAY

• Russia bans food exports• Food prices are rising sharply (But

still less than 2008)• Mozambique has food riots• China calls on its farmers to produce

more vegetables• FAO calls a special meeting about the

rising food crisis

The food price crisis exposed the weakness and fragility of the current world system

Reform Policies And Markets: Where is fair trade?

• Distorted Trade: OECD subsidies and the Doha Round

• Shortfalls in production, drought in Australia and elsewhere, low global food stocks …against rising demand for food and feed

• Add the switching to biofuels:





Prices spiked and Countries slapped on export bans!

Not Just for Food

Increasing demand for feed





Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008

food price spike

It is wrong to burn the food of the

poor to drive the cars of the rich!

We must move to second generation biofuels

We need more food production

Global Challenges

• Climate Change

• Hunger

• Health

Let’s look at income and health

Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade

(Thousands)

Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

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Policy Counts!


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Policy Counts!

Key Actions for Public health

• Vaccination• Control of infectious diseases

• Healthier mothers and babies

• Clean drinking water

• Overall hygiene

Clean water and sanitation are crucial for this agenda!

The Water Dimension

The Water Dimension

• How scarce is water?

• How much for agriculture?

• Health: water and sanitation

• Reform

The Water Dimension




• Reform

How Scarce Is Water?

Fresh water is precious

Fresh Water Is Only 2.5% of All Water

Only 2.5% is fresh water

97.5% is salt water

Two thirds of that is locked in Glaciers and Ice Caps

2/3 of the remaining part is lost to Evapotranspiration

That leaves only 40,700 KM3 Potentially Available to people

Of that 20% are too remote

Of the accessible part 3/4 come as floods and are not readily useable

With dams, etc. Total water available to humans sustainably is about 12,500 km3

Of the 80% or 32,900 km3 accessible

1/4 available sustainably

3/4 floods

8,2004,300Dams, etc.

12,500 km3

Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km3

Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km3

• About 35% directly used by people

• About 19% used instream (to dilute pollution, sustain fisheries, maintain wetlands, etc)

• Therefore, more than 50% or 6,250 km3 is currently used

Per Capita Availability Shows Huge Variation

Country/region Water availability

North America > 10,000 m3/year

Egypt <1,000

Jordan <200

Syria’s water table has been decliningone meter every year for the past 30 years!

Regional per capita availability of water is declining

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

World

Asia

MENA

‘000 m3

Current Mismanagement

Fragmentation by Use

In each country at least 6, and sometimes as much as twenty,

agencies are involved with water management

International fragmentation

About 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries, highlighting the need for collaboration in water

management

Water Use And The Environment

Rising Water Use

In The 20th Century,

Population Grew Three-fold,

But

Water Use Grew Six-fold!

Human Activity Has Had an Impact on Both the

Hydrological Cycle and the Quality of Water

Three Gorges Construction

Storage Capacity in cu.m. / person

USA 7000

Australia 5000

So. Africa 700

Ethiopia 25

Kenya 4

Resulting problems

• Unsustainable environmental practices

• Much waste, especially in agriculture• Poor do not have access to clean

water and sanitation – and pay more than rich for the little they get

• Polluters and users are not paying the social and environmental cost

The Yellow river did not reach the sea 220 days in 1997!

In the last 100 years 50% of the world’s wetlands have been lost to

development.

Freshwater fish are going extinct at five times the rate of

marine fish species

Pollution

On Average, the Poor Pay 20 Times Per Unit of

Water What the Rich Pay!

Quality and Quantity of Water:Pollution

Reduces Available/useable water

Pollution!

Water Quality

• Water quality is as important as water quantity and must be factored in

• Many polluters do not pay the cost of their pollution

• Society bears the cost directly (treatment facilities to clean the water) and indirectly (disease, opportunities lost to reuse the water)

Fundamental Principles

• User Pays

• Polluter pays

The Water Dimension




• Reform

How Much for Agriculture?

Estimated Global Water Withdrawals

22%

6%

7%65%

AGRICULTUREMUNICIPAL

INDUSTRY

RESERVOIR LOSSES

MENA Water Withdrawals

AGRICULTURE

MUNICIPALINDUSTRY

Source World Bank WDI 2002

5 %6 %

89 %

Minimum water needs per Person

5

20

1510

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

liters/day

Drinking

sanitaion

bathing

cooking

total

Minimum total water needs per Person

0

100

200

300

400

500 (Liters/day)

Domestic Food Production

One Calorie = One Liter

Underground water is being mined at unsustainable rates

and 10% of world grain production

depends on unsustainable aquifer withdrawals.

Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries

• Today accounts for– 40% of all crop production– 60% of cereals

• Over the next 30 years, to meet the demands of a larger world population, we must increase:– arable irrigated land by 22%, and– water withdrawals by 14%

Water Use Efficiency

Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture is Low

Many Transfers

• From main Source to Irrigation System (T-1)

• From Irrigation to local canal (T-2)• From Local canal to field (T-3)• From Field to plant (T-4)• Plant uptake (T-5)

Water Use Efficiency = (T-1) x (T-2) x (T-3) x (T-4) x (T-5)

Water Use Efficiency = 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8

= 0.33

Water Use Efficiency = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9

= 0.59

Changing the Way We Manage Water

Workable Approaches

More crop per drop!

RAINFED IRRIGATED SUPPLEMENTAL IRRIGATION

0.3

0.8

2.2

Crop yield per unit of waterwheat kg/cu.m

Source: ICARDA

Increasing Water Use Efficiency

• Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt)

• Better management of the System (less losses)

• More efficient delivery techniques• More appropriate cropping patterns• Precision farming on water use

Water is re-used multiple times













Selecting The Most Appropriate Cropping Patterns





Precision Farming





The Water Dimension




• Reform

Ancient Times• Ca 2500 BC: Flush toilets were first used in the Indus

Valley Civilization. The cities of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro had a flush toilet in almost every house, attached to a sophisticated sewage system.

• Ca 1800 BC: Flush toilet constructed at Knossos on Minoan Crete

• Ca 1400 BC: Flush toilets used in the Minoan city of Akrotiri

• Ca 850 BC: Flush toilets in Bahrain Island.• 1st to 5th centuries AD: Flush toilets were used

throughout the Roman Empire. Examples include those at Vindolanda on Hadrian's Wall in Britain.

• With the fall of the Roman Empire, the technology was lost in the West.

Ancient Times: Latrine At Knossos

Roman Public Toilets, Ca. 315 AD

1206: The Arab inventor Al-Jazari,

• 1206: The Arab inventor, Al-Jazari, invented a hand washing device incorporating the flush mechanism now used in modern flush toilets.

• His device features an automaton by a basin filled with water. When the user pulls the lever, the water drains and the automaton refills the basin.

Rediscovery In The West

• 1596: Sir John Harington published A New Discourse of a Stale Subject, Called the Metamorphosis of Ajax, describing a forerunner to the modern flush toilet installed at his house at Kelston.

• The design had a flush valve to let water out of the tank, and a wash-down design to empty the bowl. The Ajax was not taken up on a wide scale in England, but was adopted in France under the name Angrez.

Royal Rejection• Sir john Harrington

installed one of his flush toilets for his godmother Elizabeth I of England at Richmond Palace,

• She refused to use it because it made too much noise.

Elizabeth I(1533-1601)

Evolving to the modern Design• 1738: A flush toilet was invented by J. F. Brondel.• 1775: Alexander Cummings invented the S-trap• 1777: Samuel Prosser patented the 'plunger closet'.• 1778: Joseph Bramah invented a hinged valve or

'crank valve' that sealed the bottom of the bowl, and a float valve system for the flush tank. His design was used mainly on boats.

• 1819: Albert Giblin invented siphon discharge system.• 1852: J. G. Jennings invented a wash-out design with

a shallow pan emptying into an S-trap.• 1857: The first American patent for a toilet, the

'plunger closet', was granted.

1860: Royal Monopoly!• An early watercloset

on the European continent was imported from England. It was installed in the rooms of Queen Victoria in castle Ehrenburg (Coburg, Germany)

• she was the only one who was allowed to use it. Victoria

(1819-1901)

The Crystal Palace• The first popularized

water closets were exhibited at The Crystal Palace and these became the first public toilets.

• They had attendants dressed in white and customers were charged a penny for use.

• This is the origin of the phrase "To spend a penny".

1880s: Thomas Crapper & “crap”

• Although he was not the original inventor, Crapper popularized the siphon system for emptying the tank,

• Some of Crapper's designs were made by Thomas Twyford.

• The similarity between Crapper's name and the much older word crap is a coincidence. Thomas Crapper

(1836-1910)

The Modern Toilet Is Born• 1885: Thomas Twyford built the first one-piece

china toilet using the flush-out siphon design by J. G. Jennings.

• 1906: William Elvis Sloan invented the Flushometer, which used pressurized water directly from the supply line for faster recycle time between flushes. The original Royal Flushometer is still in use today in public restrooms worldwide.

• 1907: Thomas MacAvity Stewart of Saint John, New Brunswick patented the vortex-flushing toilet bowl, which creates a self cleansing effect.

Clean Water and Sanitation is one of the best

Health investments that we can make

Sanitation does NOT have to be the water-borne type we all got

used to!

Costs will be minimal compared to gains and future

losses avoided

All Actors Must Participate

Sustainable development does not mean that people will live

worse…

RECALL:Sustainable development does not mean that people will live

worse…


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Policy Counts!

The Water Dimension




• Reform

The Water Dimension




• Reform

On Reform

Reforms

• IWRM• More efficient use of water• Promoting P4• New water (Alternative

sources)• Regional and international

cooperation

Reforms



cooperation

Reforms



cooperation

P4: People Public Private Partnerships

• Putting people first

• Mobilizes stakeholders and involves them in the design and implementation of the PPP

• Recognizes community action

Reforms



cooperation

New Water Sources(US cents /cu.m)

• Reduce demand = 10 - 70 • leakage repair = 10 - 70• Desalination = 20 - 40

– (brackish water)• Wastewater reuse = 10 – 50

– (Only for irrig. & some industry)• Desalination = 50 – 90

– (sea water)

Source World Bank est. 2003 in WB,from scarcity through reform to Security, for WWF3, Kyoto Japan 2003, p.13

Using Treated Wastewater

Sorghum and Topinambur irrigated with Treated Wastewater in Sorbulak area, Kazakhstan – Courtesy ICARDASorghum and Topinambur irrigated with Treated Wastewater in Sorbulak area, Kazakhstan – Courtesy ICARDA

Reforms



cooperation

Reforms



cooperation

Essential Questions

• Always ask: – Who pays?– Who benefits?

• Always trace the shifting and

incidence of taxation and subsidies

Questions on Dams

How To Deal With Water Conflicts?

Recognize the domain:Nature deals with Basins

• Avoid fragmentation• Look at all the cleavages: & Involve

all stakeholders• Focus on joint management and

quality improvement rather than quantity allocation first

• Build on trust• Keep process going

Innovate! Unleash the Creativity of the

Various Actors!

It Can Be Done!

Actions to Take

Strategic Approach

• Public Education• Behavioral change• Address priorities• Immediate improvements• Mitigation vs. remedial actions• Harness new technologies• Link global and local

Strategic Approach


Consumption

Destruction

Waste & Pollution

Poverty & Social Marginalization

Dialogue & Cooperation

No More Wars!

Strategic Approach


More crop per drop!

Strategic Approach


Immediate Improvements

Strategic Approach

• Public Education• Behavioral change• Address priorities• Immediate improvements• Mitigation AND Adaptation• Harness new technologies• Link global and local

Strategic Approach


New technologies

• Nano technologies• Remote sensing• Biotechnology

And much more…

Strategic Approach


Think of creating Water Markets

Locally: Users and rights holders within one water administration district

(basin)

Globally: Better international trade regime

for agricultural commodities (virtual water)

Strategic Approach


Envoi

## 320

Dare to dream!

Dare to be bold!

## 321

We can do things differently…

We Can Make It Happen

322

## 323

We Can Succeed

Antarctica

Bring in the Bulldozers!

Money!

1963

I Have A Dream…

“I have a dream that my …children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”.

Dreams can be realized!

“The Audacity Of Hope”

“ Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it is the only thing that ever has”.

– Margaret Mead

Working All Together

There is so much we can do for a whole generation

For The Whole World…

With your help…

It can be done!

Our Team

Limited size, limited resources

The Opposition

Large size, unlimited resources

But we will surprise the World!

Thank You

The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for

any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of

these pictures

Documents

Global Challenges and Water Security: Threats and Opportunities presented by Dr. Ismail Serageldin as the GWP annual lecture