Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Global Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Energy Future
Arun Majumdar, ARPA-E
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Production
Consumption
Mill
ion
bar
rels
per
day
USA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Source: Energy Information Administration
Geographical & Resource Constraints for Oil
$1B/day
Consumption
Production
Production
Population Density
Energy Use
Energy use and population do not correlate
Transportation
• Vehicle Efficiency
• Alternative Fuels (Biofuels, Natural Gas)
• Electrification
20 40 60 80 100 112
OPEC Middle East
Other OPEC
Other Conventional Oil
FSU
Venezuela Heavy Oil
Deep Water
Arctic
EOR
Sugarcane EtOH
Oil Sands (Mining)
Oil Sands (In-situ)
GTL
CTL
Corn EtOH
Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (MBOE/d)
Tota
l Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($
/BO
E) 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Analysis based on information from IEA, DOE and interviews with super-majors
Production Cost, per barrel
Biofuels in a Petroleum Context
Marginal Conventional Oil
Oil Shale
Profit Margin
Batteries for Electrical Energy Storage for Transportation (BEEST)
Electric cars with longer range and lower life-cycle cost than gasoline cars: Subsidy-free business
Chicago
St. Louis
300 miles
Lithium-Oxygen
Metal-Air Magnesium-Ion
Lithium-Sulfur
Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery
All Electron Battery
BEEST Competition
Double the energy density
One third the cost
BEEST Targets
World Record 400 Wh/kg
Natural Gas Transportation LNG for Long-Haul Trucking
CNG for Bus, Car and Short-Haul Truck Fleets
CNG for Passenger Cars: High-Density, Low-Pressure, Low-Cost NG Storage for Home Refilling
Low-Cost NG to Liquid Fuel Chemical Conversion
Stationary Energy Systems
• Supply or Generation (Efficiency, GHG Impact)
• Demand or Use (Efficiency)
• Grid Infrastructure
Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals
42: Average age of a transformer – 2 years more than its lifetime
Aging Grid Infrastructure
Clean and Inexpensive Electricity Scaling without subsidies
Sunshot
2020
15-20¢
4-10¢
NGCC
10-15¢
Clean Coal
6-13¢
Nuclear
10-15¢
Geothermal
5 cents/kWh
5-20¢
Wind
15
SunShot $8.00
$1.70
$0.80
$0.40
$0.50
$1.88
$0.72
$0.76
$0.40
$0.22 $0.12
$0.10
0
2
4
6
8
$1/W
Target
$1/W
Inst
alled
Syst
em
s P
rice (
$/W
)
$3.80/W
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
$
WattµManufacturing Cost
Efficiencyh µ JSC ×VOC ×FF
Effi
cie
ncy
Barriers-based investments: Cell and module efficiency
Wafer-Based Si Thin Film
Grid-Scale Storage (GWh level)
MIT-24M Target: $60/kWh
Power Electronics
8000 lbs, 60 Hz Distribution Transformer Silicon Carbide IGBT; 15 kV, 100 A; 50 kHz from Cree Inc. Potentially 100 lbs transformer
Temperature
Scal
e
800-1500 oC
ThermoFuels
Conversion efficiency > 10%
<100 oC
Increase EV range by ~ 40%
Building thermals
High Energy Advanced Thermal Storage (HEATS)
>600 oC
Increase in efficiency > 50% compared to current systems
Grid level storage using heat pumps
Base load Solar and Peaking High-Temp Nuclear
Ravi Prasher (ex-Intel, ASU)
A:B = A + B ΔH, ΔS; T = ΔH/ΔS
Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative Thermodevices (BEETIT)
Dr. Ravi Prasher (ex-Intel, ASU)
10X away from theoretical limit
ADMA Products, Inc, PNNL, Texas A&M Thermal Diodes High Performance
Thermoelectric Cooler
Sheetak
Buildings Matter
Buildings use 72% of nation’s electricity and 55% of its natural gas.
Buildings construction/renovation contributed 9.5% to US GDP and employs
approximately 8 million people. Buildings’ utility bills totaled $370 Billion in 2005.
Source: Buildings Energy Data Book 2007
By 2030, Business as Usual • 16% growth in electricity
demand • Additional 200 GW of
electricity at cost of $500-1000B, or $25-50B/yr
Buildings Can Provide Grid-Level Storage
Senate Testimony: Google “Majumdar Testimony” http://energy.senate.gov/public/_files/MajumdarTestimony022609.pdf
Gap
• Lack of Measurements & Policies
Requiring it
• Fragmentation of industry & process
Analysis of 121 LEED-Rated Buildings
Low-to-Medium Energy Use Intensity Buildings
Measured to Design Ratio
Towards Zero-Net Energy
M. Frankel, “The Energy Performance of LEED Buildings,”presented at the Summer Study on Energy
Efficient Buildings, American Council of Energy Efficiency Economy, Asilomar Conference Center, Pacific
Grove, CA, August 17-22, 2008.
Building codes are for Design Performance, NOT based on Measured Performance.
First Challenge: Measured Performance
Bad
Good
The Spread EUI in kBTU/sq.ft.-yr
Heating & Cooling in a US campus 2006年度UPENN逐月总冷量和热量
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月
GJ 冷量
热量
Heating and Cooling Load
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
MJ/m2
cooling load
heating load
Heating and Cooling Load
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
MJ/m2
cooling load
heating load
UPenn Campus
Second Challenge: Fragmentation of Industry and Process
Courtesy: World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Report on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, July 2008
Need to:
• Integrate process & communities
• Integrate building system
• Align incentives
Policy Innovation:
National Standards Based on Measured Energy and Indoor Environmental Quality Performance
26
• Interior volume refrigerator increased by 22%.
• Total cost of ownership decreased 3x.
• Energy use decreased more than 4x.
Current Learning Curve (Assured Path)
Scale in Size or Volume
Cost ($)/Performance
Deployment
Appliance Standards, CAFE, Clean Energy Standards (80% clean energy by 2035) to Create Demand Pull
R&D for Breakthrough Technologies to Create New Learning Curves
US Markets Businesses Consumers US Gov’t
Global Markets
Manufacturing/Scaling Innovations
Technology Innovations
R&D from DOE Applied Energy Programs DOE
>$1-10B <$10M (2-5 yrs)
$10-100M (5-10 yrs)
$100M-1B (>10 yrs)
Low-Cost Long-Term Capital (>20 years)
Project Size & Time
DOE RD&D
Private Sector