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Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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GlobalCarbonBudget20171
CorinneLeQuéré1,RobbieM.Andrew2,PierreFriedlingstein3,StephenSitch4,JuliaPongratz5,AndrewC.2Manning6,JanIvarKorsbakken2,GlenP.Peters2,JosepG.Canadell7,RobertB.Jackson8,ThomasA.Boden9,3PieterP.Tans10,OliverD.Andrews1,VivekK.Arora11,DorotheeC.E.Bakker6,LeticiaBarbero12,13,Meike4Becker14,15,RichardA.Betts16,4,LaurentBopp17,FrédéricChevallier18,LouiseP.Chini19,PhilippeCiais18,5CatherineE.Cosca20,JessicaCross20,KimCurrie21,ThomasGasser22,IanHarris23,JudithHauck24,Vanessa6Haverd25,RichardA.Houghton26,ChristopherW.Hunt27,GeorgeHurtt19,TatianaIlyina5,AtulK.Jain28,7EtsushiKato29,MarkusKautz30,RalphF.Keeling31,KeesKleinGoldewijk32,ArneKörtzinger33,Peter8Landschützer5,NathalieLefèvre34,AndrewLenton35,36,SebastianLienert37,38,IvanLima39,Danica9
Lombardozzi40,NicolasMetzl34,FrankMillero41,PedroM.S.Monteiro42,DavidR.Munro43,JuliaE.M.S.10Nabel5,Shin-ichiroNakaoka44,YukihiroNojiri44,X.AntonioPadín45,AnnaPeregon18,BenjaminPfeil14,15,11DenisPierrot12,13,BenjaminPoulter46,47,GregorRehder48,JanetReimer49,ChristianRödenbeck50,Jörg12
Schwinger51,RolandSéférian52,IngunnSkjelvan51,BenjaminD.Stocker53,HanqinTian54,Bronte13Tilbrook35,36,IngridT.vanderLaan-Luijkx55,GuidoR.vanderWerf56,StevenvanHeuven57,NicolasViovy18,14NicolasVuichard18,AnthonyP.Walker58,AndrewJ.Watson4,AndrewJ.Wiltshire16,SönkeZaehle50,Dan15
Zhu181617
1TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch,UniversityofEastAnglia,NorwichResearchPark,18NorwichNR47TJ,UK19
2CICEROCenterforInternationalClimateResearch,Oslo,Norway203CollegeofEngineering,MathematicsandPhysicalSciences,UniversityofExeter,ExeterEX44QF,UK21
4CollegeofLifeandEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofExeter,ExeterEX44RJ,UK225MaxPlanckInstituteforMeteorology,Hamburg,Germany23
6CentreforOceanandAtmosphericSciences,SchoolofEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofEast24Anglia,NorwichResearchPark,NorwichNR47TJ,UK25
7GlobalCarbonProject,CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,GPOBox1700,Canberra,ACT2601,Australia268DepartmentofEarthSystemScience,WoodsInstitutefortheEnvironment,andPrecourtInstitutefor27
Energy,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA94305,USA289ClimateChangeScienceInstitute,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,OakRidge,TN37831,USA29
10NationalOceanic&AtmosphericAdministration,EarthSystemResearchLaboratory(NOAA/ESRL),30Boulder,CO80305,USA31
11CanadianCentreforClimateModellingandAnalysis,ClimateResearchDivision,Environmentand32ClimateChangeCanada,Victoria,BC,Canada33
12CooperativeInstituteforMarineandAtmosphericStudies,RosenstielSchoolforMarineand34AtmosphericScience,UniversityofMiami,Miami,FL33149,USA35
13NationalOceanic&AtmosphericAdministration/AtlanticOceanographic&MeteorologicalLaboratory36(NOAA/AOML),Miami,FL33149,USA37
14GeophysicalInstitute,UniversityofBergen,5020Bergen,Norway3815BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,5007Bergen,Norway3916MetOfficeHadleyCentre,FitzRoyRoad,ExeterEX13PB,UK40
17LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique,InstitutPierre-SimonLaplace,CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X,41DépartementdeGéosciences,EcoleNormaleSupérieure,24rueLhomond,75005Paris,France42
18LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel’Environnement,InstitutPierre-SimonLaplace,CEA-CNRS-43UVSQ,CEOrmedesMerisiers,91191GifsurYvetteCedex,France44
19DepartmentofGeographicalSciences,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,Maryland20742,USA4520PacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Seattle,46
WA98115,USA4721NationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearch(NIWA),Dunedin9054,NewZealand48
22InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),2361Laxenburg,Austria49
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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23NCAS-Climate,ClimaticResearchUnit,UniversityofEastAnglia,NorwichResearchPark,Norwich,1NR47TJ,UK2
24AlfredWegenerInstituteHelmholtzCentreforPolarandMarineResearch,Postfach120161,275153Bremerhaven,Germany4
25CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,GPOBox1700,Canberra,ACT2601,Australia526WoodsHoleResearchCentre(WHRC),Falmouth,MA02540,USA6
27OceanProcessAnalysisLaboratory,UniversityofNewHampshire,Durham,NH03824,USA728DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,UniversityofIllinois,Urbana,IL61821,USA8
29InstituteofAppliedEnergy(IAE),Minato-ku,Tokyo105-0003,Japan930KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,InstituteofMeteorologyandClimateResearch/Atmospheric10
EnvironmentalResearch,82467Garmisch-Partenkirchen,Germany1131UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography,LaJolla,CA92093-0244,USA1232PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,TheHague/BilthovenandUtrechtUniversity,13
Utrecht,TheNetherlands1433GEOMARHelmholtzCentreforOceanResearchKiel,DüsternbrookerWeg20,24105Kiel,Germany1534SorbonneUniversités(UPMC,UnivParis06),CNRS,IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN/IPSLLaboratory,7525216
Paris,France1735CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,POBox1538,Hobart,Tasmania,Australia18
36AntarcticClimateandEcosystemCooperativeResearchCentre,UniversityofTasmania,Hobart,19Australia20
37ClimateandEnvironmentalPhysics,PhysicsInstitute,UniversityofBern,Bern,Switzerland2138OeschgerCentreforClimateChangeResearch,UniversityofBern,Bern,Switzerland22
39WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution(WHOI),WoodsHole,MA02543,USA2340NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,ClimateandGlobalDynamics,TerrestrialSciencesSection,24
Boulder,CO80305,USA2541DepartmentofOceanSciences,RSMAS/MAC,UniversityofMiami,4600RickenbackerCauseway,26
Miami,FL33149,USA2742OceanSystemsandClimate,CSIR-CHPC,CapeTown,7700,SouthAfrica28
43DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicSciencesandInstituteofArcticandAlpineResearch,29UniversityofColorado,CampusBox450,Boulder,CO80309-0450,USA30
44CenterforGlobalEnvironmentalResearch,NationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES),16-231Onogawa,Tsukuba,Ibaraki305-8506,Japan32
45InstitutodeInvestigaciónesMariñas(CSIC),Vigo36208,Spain3346NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter,BiosphericScienceLaboratory,Greenbelt,Maryland20771,USA34
47DepartmentofEcology,MontanaStateUniversity,Bozeman,MT59717,USA3548LeibnizInstituteforBalticSeaResearchWarnemünde,18119Rostock,Germany36
49SchoolofMarineScienceandPolicy,UniversityofDelaware,Newark,DE19716,USA3750MaxPlanckInstituteforBiogeochemistry,P.O.Box600164,Hans-Knöll-Str.10,07745Jena,Germany38
51UniResearchClimate,BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,5007Bergen,Norway3952CentreNationaldeRechercheMétéorologique,Unitemixtederecherche3589Météo-France/CNRS,40
42AvenueGaspardCoriolis,31100Toulouse,France4153CREAF,CerdanyoladelVallès,08193Catalonia,Spain42
54SchoolofForestryandWildlifeSciences,AuburnUniversity,602DucanDrive,Auburn,AL36849,USA4355DepartmentofMeteorologyandAirQuality,WageningenUniversity&Research,POBox47,6700AA44
Wageningen,TheNetherlands4556FacultyofScience,VrijeUniversiteit,Amsterdam,TheNetherlands46
57EnergyandSustainabilityResearchInstituteGroningen(ESRIG),UniversityofGroningen,Groningen,47TheNetherlands48
58EnvironmentalSciencesDivision&ClimateChangeScienceInstitute,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,49OakRidge,Tennessee,USA50
Correspondenceto:CorinneLeQuéré([email protected])51
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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Abstract1
Accurateassessmentofanthropogeniccarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsandtheirredistribution2
amongtheatmosphere,ocean,andterrestrialbiosphere–the‘globalcarbonbudget’–is3
importanttobetterunderstandtheglobalcarboncycle,supportthedevelopmentofclimate4
policies,andprojectfutureclimatechange.Herewedescribedatasetsandmethodologyto5
quantifythefivemajorcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandtheiruncertainties.CO26
emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)arebasedonenergystatisticsandcementproduction7
data,respectively,whileemissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC),mainlydeforestation,arebased8
onland-coverchangedataandbookkeepingmodels.TheglobalatmosphericCO2concentrationis9
measureddirectlyanditsrateofgrowth(GATM)iscomputedfromtheannualchangesin10
concentration.TheoceanCO2sink(SOCEAN)andterrestrialCO2sink(SLAND)areestimatedwith11
globalprocessmodelsconstrainedbyobservations.Theresultingcarbonbudgetimbalance(BIM),12
thedifferencebetweentheestimatedtotalemissionsandtheestimatedchangesinthe13
atmosphere,ocean,andterrestrialbiosphere,isameasureofourimperfectdataand14
understandingofthecontemporarycarboncycle.Alluncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.Forthe15
lastdecadeavailable(2007-2016),EFFwas9.4±0.5GtCyr-1,ELUC1.3±0.7GtCyr-1,GATM4.7±0.116
GtCyr-1,SOCEAN2.4±0.5GtCyr-1,andSLAND3.0±0.8GtCyr-1,withabudgetimbalanceBIMof0.617
GtCyr-1indicatingoverestimatedemissionsand/orunderestimatedsinks.Foryear2016alone,the18
growthinEFFwasapproximatelyzeroandemissionsremainedat9.9±0.5GtCyr-1.Alsofor2016,19
ELUCwas1.3±0.7GtCyr-1,GATMwas6.1±0.2GtCyr-1,SOCEANwas2.6±0.5GtCyr-1andSLANDwas20
2.7±1.0GtCyr-1,withasmallBIMof-0.3GtC.GATMcontinuedtobehigherin2016comparedto21
thepastdecade(2007-2016),reflectinginpartthehigherfossilemissionsandsmallerSLANDfor22
thatyearconsistentwithElNiñoconditions.TheglobalatmosphericCO2concentrationreached23
402.8±0.1ppmaveragedover2016.For2017,preliminarydataindicatearenewedgrowthinEFF24
of+2.0%(rangeof0.8%to3.0%)basedonnationalemissionsprojectionsforChina,USA,and25
India,andprojectionsofGrossDomesticProductcorrectedforrecentchangesinthecarbon26
intensityoftheeconomyfortherestoftheworld.For2017,initialdataindicateanincreasein27
atmosphericCO2concentrationofaround5.3GtC(2.5ppm),attributedtoacombinationof28
increasingemissionsandrecedingElNiñoconditions.Thislivingdataupdatedocumentschanges29
inthemethodsanddatasetsusedinthisnewglobalcarbonbudgetcomparedwithprevious30
publicationsofthisdataset(LeQuéréetal.,2016;2015b;2015a;2014;2013).Allresults31
presentedherecanbedownloadedfromhttps://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017. 32
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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1 Introduction1
Theconcentrationofcarbondioxide(CO2)intheatmospherehasincreasedfromapproximately2
277partspermillion(ppm)in1750(JoosandSpahni,2008),thebeginningoftheIndustrialEra,to3
402.8±0.1ppmin2016(DlugokenckyandTans,2016;Fig.1).TheatmosphericCO2increase4
abovepreindustriallevelswas,initially,primarilycausedbythereleaseofcarbontothe5
atmospherefromdeforestationandotherland-usechangeactivities(Ciaisetal.,2013).While6
emissionsfromfossilfuelsstartedbeforetheIndustrialEra,theyonlybecamethedominant7
sourceofanthropogenicemissionstotheatmospherefromaround1920andtheirrelativeshare8
hascontinuedtoincreaseuntilpresent.Anthropogenicemissionsoccurontopofanactivenatural9
carboncyclethatcirculatescarbonbetweenthereservoirsoftheatmosphere,ocean,and10
terrestrialbiosphereontimescalesfromsub-dailytomillennia,whileexchangeswithgeologic11
reservoirsoccuratlongertimescales(Archeretal.,2009).12
Theglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedherereferstothemean,variations,andtrendsinthe13
perturbationofCO2intheatmosphere,referencedtothebeginningoftheIndustrialEra.It14
quantifiestheinputofCO2totheatmospherebyemissionsfromhumanactivities,thegrowthrate15
ofatmosphericCO2concentration,andtheresultingchangesinthestorageofcarbonintheland16
andoceanreservoirsinresponsetoincreasingatmosphericCO2levels,climatechangeand17
variability,andotheranthropogenicandnaturalchanges(Fig.2).Anunderstandingofthis18
perturbationbudgetovertimeandtheunderlyingvariabilityandtrendsofthenaturalcarbon19
cyclearenecessarytounderstandtheresponseofnaturalsinkstochangesinclimate,CO2and20
land-usechangedrivers,andthepermissibleemissionsforagivenclimatestabilizationtarget.21
ThecomponentsoftheCO2budgetthatarereportedannuallyinthispaperincludeseparate22
estimatesfortheCO2emissionsfrom(1)fossilfuelcombustionandoxidationandcement23
production(EFF;GtCyr-1)and(2)theemissionsresultingfromdeliberatehumanactivitiesonland24
leadingtoland-usechange(ELUC;GtCyr-1);andtheirpartitioningamong(3)thegrowthrateof25
atmosphericCO2concentration(GATM;GtCyr-1),andtheuptakeofCO2(the‘CO2sinks’)in(4)the26
ocean(SOCEAN;GtCyr-1)and(5)onland(SLAND;GtCyr-1).TheCO2sinksasdefinedhereconceptually27
includetheresponseoftheland(includinginlandwatersandestuaries)andocean(including28
coastsandseawardedge)toelevatedCO2andchangesinclimate,rivers,andotherenvironmental29
conditions,althoughinpracticenotallprocessesareaccountedfor(seeSection2.7).Theglobal30
emissionsandtheirpartitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandlandareinrealityinbalance,31
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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howeverduetoimperfectspatialand/ortemporaldatacoverage,errorsineachestimateanddue1
tosmallertermsnotincludedinourbudgetestimate(discussedinSection2.7),theirsumdoes2
notnecessarilyadduptozero.Weintroducehereabudgetimbalance(BIM),whichisameasureof3
themismatchbetweentheestimatedemissionsandtheestimatedchangesintheatmosphere,4
landandocean.Thisisanimportantchangeinthecalculationoftheglobalcarbonbudget.With5
thischange,thefullglobalcarbonbudgetnowreads:6
!"" + !$%& = ()*+ + ,-&.)/ + ,$)/0 + 12+. (1)
GATMisusuallyreportedinppmyr-1,whichweconverttounitsofcarbonmassperyear,GtCyr-1,7
using1ppm=2.12GtC(Table1).WealsoincludeaquantificationofEFFbycountry,computed8
withbothterritorialandconsumptionbasedaccounting(seeSect.2).Equation(1)partlyomitsthe9
netinputofCO2totheatmospherefromthechemicaloxidationofreactivecarbon-containing10
gasesfromsourcesotherthanthecombustionoffossilfuels(discussedinSect.2.7).11
TheCO2budgethasbeenassessedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)inall12
assessmentreports(Ciaisetal.,2013;Denmanetal.,2007;Prenticeetal.,2001;Schimeletal.,13
1995;Watsonetal.,1990),andbyothers(e.g.Ballantyneetal.,2012).TheIPCCmethodologyhas14
beenadaptedandusedbytheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP,www.globalcarbonproject.org),which15
hascoordinatedacooperativecommunityeffortfortheannualpublicationofglobalcarbon16
budgetsuptoyear2005(Raupachetal.,2007;includingfossilemissionsonly),year200617
(Canadelletal.,2007),year2007(publishedonline;GCP,2007),year2008(LeQuéréetal.,2009),18
year2009(Friedlingsteinetal.,2010),year2010(Petersetal.,2012b),year2012(LeQuéréetal.,19
2013;Petersetal.,2013),year2013(LeQuéréetal.,2014),year2014(Friedlingsteinetal.,2014;20
LeQuéréetal.,2015b),year2015(Jacksonetal.,2016;LeQuéréetal.,2015a),andmostrecently21
year2016(LeQuéréetal.,2016).Eachofthesepapersupdatedpreviousestimateswiththelatest22
availableinformationfortheentiretimeseries.23
Weadoptarangeof±1standarddeviation(σ)toreporttheuncertaintiesinourestimates,24
representingalikelihoodof68%thatthetruevaluewillbewithintheprovidedrangeiftheerrors25
haveaGaussiandistribution.Thischoicereflectsthedifficultyofcharacterisingtheuncertaintyin26
theCO2fluxesbetweentheatmosphereandtheoceanandlandreservoirsindividually,27
particularlyonanannualbasis,aswellasthedifficultyofupdatingtheCO2emissionsfromland-28
usechange.Alikelihoodof68%providesanindicationofourcurrentcapabilitytoquantifyeach29
termanditsuncertaintygiventheavailableinformation.Forcomparison,theFifthAssessment30
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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ReportoftheIPCC(AR5)generallyreportedalikelihoodof90%forlargedatasetswhose1
uncertaintyiswellcharacterised,orforlongtimeintervalslessaffectedbyyear-to-yearvariability.2
Our68%uncertaintyvalueisnearthe66%whichtheIPCCcharacterisesas‘likely’forvaluesfalling3
intothe±1σinterval.Theuncertaintiesreportedherecombinestatisticalanalysisofthe4
underlyingdataandexpertjudgementofthelikelihoodofresultslyingoutsidethisrange.The5
limitationsofcurrentinformationarediscussedinthepaperandhavebeenexaminedindetail6
elsewhere(Ballantyneetal.,2015;Zscheischleretal.,2017).7
Allquantitiesarepresentedinunitsofgigatonnesofcarbon(GtC,1015gC),whichisthesameas8
petagramsofcarbon(PgC;Table1).UnitsofgigatonnesofCO2(orbilliontonnesofCO2)usedin9
policyareequalto3.664multipliedbythevalueinunitsofGtC.10
Thispaperprovidesadetaileddescriptionofthedatasetsandmethodologyusedtocomputethe11
globalcarbonbudgetestimatesfortheperiodpreindustrial(1750)to2016andinmoredetailfor12
theperiod1959to2016.Wealsoprovidedecadalaveragesstartingin1960includingthelast13
decade(2007-2016),resultsfortheyear2016,andaprojectionforyear2017.Finallyweprovide14
cumulativeemissionsfromfossilfuelsandland-usechangesinceyear1750,thepreindustrial15
period,andsinceyear1870,thereferenceyearforthecumulativecarbonestimateusedbythe16
IPCC(AR5)basedontheavailabilityofglobaltemperaturedata(Stockeretal.,2013).Thispaperis17
updatedeveryyearusingtheformatof‘livingdata’tokeeparecordofbudgetversionsandthe18
changesinnewdata,revisionofdata,andchangesinmethodologythatleadtochangesin19
estimatesofthecarbonbudget.Additionalmaterialsassociatedwiththereleaseofeachnew20
versionwillbepostedattheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP)website21
(http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget),withfossilfuelemissionsalsoavailable22
throughtheGlobalCarbonAtlas(http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org).Withthisapproach,weaim23
toprovidethehighesttransparencyandtraceabilityinthereportingofCO2,thekeydriverof24
climatechange.25
2 Methods26
Multipleorganizationsandresearchgroupsaroundtheworldgeneratedtheoriginal27
measurementsanddatausedtocompletetheglobalcarbonbudget.Theeffortpresentedhereis28
thusmainlyoneofsynthesis,whereresultsfromindividualgroupsarecollated,analysedand29
evaluatedforconsistency.Wefacilitateaccesstooriginaldatawiththeunderstandingthat30
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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primarydatasetswillbereferencedinfuturework(SeeTable2for‘Howtocite’thedatasets).1
Descriptionsofthemeasurements,models,andmethodologiesfollowbelowandindepth2
descriptionsofeachcomponentaredescribedelsewhere.3
Thisisthe12thversionoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandthesixthrevisedversionintheformatofa4
livingdataupdate.ItbuildsonthelatestpublishedglobalcarbonbudgetofLeQuéréetal.(2016).5
Themainchangesare:(1)theinclusionofdatatoyear2016(inclusive)andaprojectionforthe6
globalcarbonbudgetforyear2017;(2)theuseoftwobookkeepingmodelstoassessELUC(instead7
ofone),(3)theuseofDynamicGlobalVegetationModels(DGVMs)toassessSLAND,(4)the8
introductionofthebudgetimbalanceBIMasthedifferencebetweentheestimatedemissionsand9
sinks,thusremovingtheassumptioninpreviousglobalcarbonbudgetsthatthemain10
uncertaintiesareprimarilyonthelandsink(SLAND),andrecognisinguncertaintiesintheestimate11
ofSocean,particularlyondecadaltime-scales,(5)theadditionofatablepresentingthemajor12
knownsourcesofuncertainties,and(6)theexpansionofthemodeldescriptions.Themain13
methodologicaldifferencesbetweenannualcarbonbudgetsaresummarisedinTable3.14
2.1 CO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)15
2.1.1 Emissionsestimates16
TheestimatesofglobalandnationalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuels,includinggasflaringand17
cementproduction(EFF),reliesprimarilyonenergyconsumptiondata,specificallydataon18
hydrocarbonfuels,collatedandarchivedbyseveralorganisations(Andresetal.,2012).Weuse19
fourmaindatasetsforhistoricalemissions(1751-2016):20
1. GlobalandnationalemissionestimatesfromCDIACforthetimeperiod1751-2014(Boden21
etal.,2017),asitistheonlydatasetthatextendsbackto1751bycountry.22
2. OfficialUNFCCCnationalinventoryreportsfor1990-2015forthe42AnnexIcountriesin23
theUNFCCC(UNFCCC,2017),asweassessthesetobethemostaccurateestimatesand24
areperiodicallyreviewed.25
3. TheBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy(BP,2017),toprojecttheemissionsforwardto26
2016toensurethemostrecentestimatespossible.27
4. TheUSGeologicalSurveyestimatesofcementproduction(USGS,2017),toestimate28
cementemissions.29
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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Inthefollowingweprovidemoredetailsineachdatasetandadditionalmodificationsthatare1
requiredtomakethedatasetconsistentandusable.2
CDIAC:TheCDIACestimateshavebeenupdatedannuallytoincludethemostrecentyear(2014)3
andtoincludestatisticalrevisionstorecenthistoricaldata(UN,2017).Fuelmassesandvolumes4
areconvertedtofuelenergycontentusingcountry-levelcoefficientsprovidedbytheUN,and5
thenconvertedtoCO2emissionsusingconversionfactorsthattakeintoaccounttherelationship6
betweencarboncontentandenergy(heat)contentofthedifferentfueltypes(coal,oil,gas,gas7
flaring)andthecombustionefficiency(MarlandandRotty,1984).8
UNFCCC:EstimatesfromtheUNFCCCnationalinventoryreportsfollowtheIPCCguidelines(IPCC,9
2006),buthaveaslightlylargersystemboundarythanCDIACbyincludingemissionscomingfrom10
carbonatesotherthanincementmanufacture.WereallocatethedetailedUNFCCCestimatesto11
theCDIACdefinitionsofcoal,oil,gas,cement,andothertoallowconsistentcomparisonsover12
timeandbetweencountries.13
BP:ForthemostrecentperiodwhentheUNFCCC(2016)andCDIAC(2015-2016)estimatesarenot14
available,wegeneratepreliminaryestimatesusingtheBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy15
(Andresetal.,2014;Myhreetal.,2009).WeapplytheBPgrowthratesbyfueltype(coal,oil,gas)16
toestimate2016emissionsbasedon2015estimates(UNFCCC),andtoestimate2015and201617
basedon2014estimates(CDIAC).BP'sdatasetexplicitlycoversabout70countries(96%ofglobal18
emissions),andfortheremainingcountriesweusegrowthratesfromthesub-regionthecountry19
belongsto.Forthemostrecentyears,flaringisassumedconstantfromthemostrecentavailable20
yearofdata(2015forcountriesthatreporttotheUNFCCC,2014fortheremainder).21
USGS:EstimatesofemissionsfromcementproductionarebasedonUSGS(USGS,2017),applying22
theemissionfactorsfromCDIAC(MarlandandRotty,1984).TheCDIACcementemissionsare23
knowntobehigh,andarelikelytobereviseddownwardsnextyear(Andrew,2017).Some24
fractionoftheCaOandMgOincementisreturnedtothecarbonateformduringcement25
weatheringbutthisisomittedhere(Xietal.,2016).26
Countrymappings:ThepublishedCDIACdatasetincludes256countriesandregions.Thislist27
includescountriesthatnolongerexist,suchastheUSSRandYugoslavia.Wereducethelistto22028
countriesbyreallocatingemissionstothecurrentlydefinedterritories,usingmass-preserving29
aggregationordisaggregation.ExamplesofaggregationincludemergingEastandWestGermany30
Embargountil13November2017,9:30CET(Bonntime);inpressinthejournalEarthSystemScienceDataDiscussionshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-2017-123
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tothecurrentlydefinedGermany.Examplesofdisaggregationincludereallocatingtheemissions1
fromformerUSSRtotheresultingindependentcountries.Fordisaggregation,weusetheemission2
shareswhenthecurrentterritoriesfirstappeared,andthushistoricalestimatesofdisaggregated3
countriesshouldbetreatedwithextremecare.4
Globaltotal:OurglobalestimateisbasedonCDIAC,andthisisgreaterthanthesumofemissions5
fromallcountries.Thisislargelyattributabletoemissionsthatoccurininternationalterritory,in6
particular,thecombustionoffuelsusedininternationalshippingandaviation(bunkerfuels).The7
emissionsfrominternationalbunkerfuelsarecalculatedbasedonwherethefuelswereloaded,8
butwedonotincludetheminthenationalemissionsestimates.Otherdifferencesoccur1)9
becausethesumofimportsinallcountriesisnotequaltothesumofexports,and2)becauseof10
inconsistentnationalreporting,differingtreatmentofoxidationofnon-fuelusesofhydrocarbons11
(e.g.assolvents,lubricants,feedstocks,etc.),and3)changesinfuelstored(Andresetal.,2012).12
2.1.2 UncertaintyassessmentforEFF13
Weestimatetheuncertaintyoftheglobalemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryat±5%(scaled14
downfromthepublished±10%at±2σtotheuseof±1σboundsreportedhere;Andresetal.,15
2012).Thisisconsistentwithamoredetailedrecentanalysisofuncertaintyof±8.4%at±2σ16
(Andresetal.,2014)andatthehigh-endoftherangeof±5-10%at±2σreportedbyBallantyneet17
al.(2015).Thisincludesanassessmentofuncertaintiesintheamountsoffuelconsumed,the18
carbonandheatcontentsoffuels,andthecombustionefficiency.Whileweconsiderafixed19
uncertaintyof±5%forallyears,theuncertaintyasapercentageoftheemissionsisgrowingwith20
timebecauseofthelargershareofglobalemissionsfromemergingeconomiesanddeveloping21
countries(Marlandetal.,2009).Generally,emissionsfrommatureeconomieswithgood22
statisticalprocesseshaveanuncertaintyofonlyafewpercent(Marland,2008),whiledeveloping23
countriessuchasChinahaveuncertaintiesofaround±10%(for±1σ;Greggetal.,2008).24
Uncertaintiesofemissionsarelikelytobemainlysystematicerrorsrelatedtounderlyingbiasesof25
energystatisticsandtotheaccountingmethodusedbyeachcountry.26
Weassignamediumconfidencetotheresultspresentedherebecausetheyarebasedonindirect27
estimatesofemissionsusingenergydata(Durantetal.,2011).Thereisonlylimitedandindirect28
evidenceforemissions,althoughthereisahighagreementamongtheavailableestimateswithin29
thegivenuncertainty(Andresetal.,2014;Andresetal.,2012),andemissionestimatesare30
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consistentwitharangeofotherobservations(Ciaisetal.,2013),eventhoughtheirregionaland1
nationalpartitioningismoreuncertain(Franceyetal.,2013).2
2.1.3 Emissionsembodiedingoodsandservices 3
CDIAC,UNFCCC,andBPnationalemissionstatistics‘includegreenhousegasemissionsand4
removalstakingplacewithinnationalterritoryandoffshoreareasoverwhichthecountryhas5
jurisdiction’(Rypdaletal.,2006),andarecalledterritorialemissioninventories.Consumption-6
basedemissioninventoriesallocateemissionstoproductsthatareconsumedwithinacountry,7
andareconceptuallycalculatedastheterritorialemissionsminusthe‘embodied’territorial8
emissionstoproduceexportedproductsplustheemissionsinothercountriestoproduce9
importedproducts(Consumption=Territorial–Exports+Imports).Consumption-basedemission10
attributionresults(e.g.DavisandCaldeira,2010)provideadditionalinformationtoterritorial-11
basedemissionsthatcanbeusedtounderstandemissiondrivers(HertwichandPeters,2009)and12
quantifyemissiontransfersbythetradeofproductsbetweencountries(Petersetal.,2011b).The13
consumption-basedemissionshavethesameglobaltotal,butreflectthetrade-drivenmovement14
ofemissionsacrosstheEarth'ssurfaceinresponsetohumanactivities.15
Weestimateconsumption-basedemissionsfrom1990-2015byenumeratingtheglobalsupply16
chainusingaglobalmodeloftheeconomicrelationshipsbetweeneconomicsectorswithinand17
betweeneverycountry(AndrewandPeters,2013;Petersetal.,2011a).Ouranalysisisbasedon18
theeconomicandtradedatafromtheGlobalTradeandAnalysisProject(GTAP;Narayananetal.,19
2015),andwemakedetailedestimatesfortheyears1997(GTAPversion5),2001(GTAP6),and20
2004,2007,and2011(GTAP9.2),covering57sectorsand141countriesandregions.Thedetailed21
resultsarethenextendedintoanannualtime-seriesfrom1990tothelatestyearoftheGross22
DomesticProduct(GDP)data(2015inthisbudget),usingGDPdatabyexpenditureincurrent23
exchangerateofUSdollars(USD;fromtheUNNationalAccountsmainAggregratesdatabase;UN,24
2016)andtimeseriesoftradedatafromGTAP(basedonthemethodologyinPetersetal.,2011b25
).Weestimatethesector-levelCO2emissionsusingtheGTAPdataandmethodology,include26
flaringandcementemissionsfromCDIAC,andthenscalethenationaltotals(excludingbunker27
fuels)tomatchtheemissionestimatesfromthecarbonbudget.Wedonotprovideaseparate28
uncertaintyestimatefortheconsumption-basedemissions,butbasedonmodelcomparisonsand29
sensitivityanalysis,theyareunlikelytobesignificantlydifferentthanfortheterritorialemission30
estimates(Petersetal.,2012a).31
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2.1.4 Growthrateinemissions1
Wereporttheannualgrowthrateinemissionsforadjacentyears(inpercentperyear)by2
calculatingthedifferencebetweenthetwoyearsandthencomparingtotheemissionsinthefirst3
year:(EFF(t0+1)-EFF(t0))/EFF(t0)×100%yr-1.Weapplyaleap-yearadjustmenttoensurevalid4
interpretationsofannualgrowthrates.Thisaffectsthegrowthratebyabout0.3%yr-1(1/365)and5
causesgrowthratestogoupapproximately0.3%ifthefirstyearisaleapyearanddown0.3%if6
thesecondyearisaleapyear.7
TherelativegrowthrateofEFFovertimeperiodsofgreaterthanoneyearcanbere-writtenusing8
itslogarithmequivalentasfollows:9
1
!""6!""67
= 6(9:!"")
67 (2)
Herewecalculaterelativegrowthratesinemissionsformulti-yearperiods(e.g.adecade)by10
fittingalineartrendtoln(EFF)inEq.(2),reportedinpercentperyear.11
2.1.5 Emissionsprojections12
Togaininsightonemissiontrendsforthecurrentyear(2017),weprovideanassessmentofglobal13
fossilfuelandindustryemissions,EFF,bycombiningindividualassessmentsofemissionsforChina,14
USA,India(thethreecountrieswiththelargestemissions),andtherestoftheworld.Althoughthe15
EUinaggregateemitsmorethanIndia,neitherofficialforecastsnormonthlyenergystatisticsare16
availablefortheEUasawhole.Inconsequence,weuseGDPprojectionstoinfertheemissionsfor17
thisregion.18
Our2017estimateforChinauses:(1)estimatesofcoalconsumption,production,importsand19
inventorychangesfromtheChinaCoalIndustryAssociation(CCIA)andtheNationalEnergy20
AgencyofChina(NEA)forJanuarythroughJune(CCIA,2017;NEA,2017)(2)estimated21
consumptionofnaturalgasandpetroleumforJanuarythroughJunefromNEA(CCIA,2017;NEA,22
2017)and(3)productionofcementreportedforJanuarythroughAugust(NBS,2017).Usingthese23
data,weestimatethechangeinemissionsforthecorrespondingmonthsin2017comparedto24
2016assumingnochangeintheenergyandcarboncontentofcoalfor2017.Wethenusea25
centralestimateforthegrowthrateofthewholeyearthatisadjusteddownsomewhatrelativeto26
thefirsthalfoftheyear,toaccountforaslowingtrendinindustrialgrowthobservedsinceJuly27
andqualitativestatementsfromtheNEAsayingthattheyexpectoilandcoalconsumptiontobe28
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relativelystableforthesecondhalfoftheyear.Themainsourcesofuncertaintyarefrom1
inconsistenciesbetweenavailabledatasources,incompletedataoninventorychanges,the2
carboncontentofcoalandtheassumptionsforthebehaviourfortherestoftheyear.Theseare3
discussedfurtherinSect.3.2.1.4
FortheUSA,weusetheforecastoftheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)foremissions5
fromfossilfuels(EIA,2017).Thisisbasedonanenergyforecastingmodelwhichisrevised6
monthly,andtakesintoaccountheating-degreedays,householdexpendituresbyfueltype,7
energymarkets,policies,andothereffects.Wecombinethiswithourestimateofemissionsfrom8
cementproductionusingthemonthlyU.S.cementdatafromUSGSforJanuary-June,assuming9
changesincementproductionoverthefirstpartoftheyearapplythroughouttheyear.Whilethe10
EIA’sforecastsforcurrentfull-yearemissionshaveonaveragebeenreviseddownwards,onlynine11
suchforecastsareavailable,soweconservativelyusethefullrangeofadjustmentsfollowing12
revision,andadditionallyassumesymmetricaluncertaintytogive±2.7%aroundthecentral13
forecast.14
ForIndia,weuse(1)coalproductionandsalesdatafromtheMinistryofMines,CoalIndiaLimited15
(CIL,2017;MinistryofMines,2017)andSingareniCollieriesCompanyLimited(SCCL,2017),16
combinedwithimportsdatafromtheMinistryofCommerceandIndustry(MCI,2017)andpower17
stationstocksdatafromtheCentralElectricityAuthority(CEA,2017),(2)oilproductionand18
consumptiondatafromtheMinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGas(PPAC,2017b),(3)naturalgas19
productionandimportdatafromtheMinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGas(PPAC,2017a),and20
(4)cementproductiondatafromtheOfficeoftheEconomicAdvisor(OEA,2017).Themainsource21
ofuncertaintyintheprojectionofIndia’semissionsistheassumptionofpersistentgrowthforthe22
restoftheyear.23
Fortherestoftheworld,weusethecloserelationshipbetweenthegrowthinGDPandthe24
growthinemissions(Raupachetal.,2007)toprojectemissionsforthecurrentyear.Thisisbased25
onasimplifiedKayaIdentity,wherebyEFF(GtCyr-1)isdecomposedbytheproductofGDP(USDyr-261)andthefossilfuelcarbonintensityoftheeconomy(IFF;GtCUSD-1)asfollows:27
!"" = (<=×?"" (3)
TakingatimederivativeofEquation(3)andrearranginggives:28
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13
1
!""
6!""67
= 1
(<=
6(<=
67+
1
?""
6?""67
(4)
wheretheleft-handtermistherelativegrowthrateofEFF,andtheright-handtermsarethe1
relativegrowthratesofGDPandIFF,respectively,whichcansimplybeaddedlinearlytogivethe2
overallgrowthrate.3
Thegrowthratesarereportedinpercentbymultiplyingeachtermby100.Aspreliminary4
estimatesofannualchangeinGDParemadewellbeforetheendofacalendaryear,making5
assumptionsonthegrowthrateofIFFallowsustomakeprojectionsoftheannualchangeinCO26
emissionswellbeforetheendofacalendaryear.TheIFFisbasedonGDPinconstantPPP7
(purchasingpowerparity)fromtheIEAupto2014(IEA/OECD,2016)andextendedusingtheIMF8
growthratesfor2015and2016(IMF,2017).InterannualvariabilityinIFFisthelargestsourceof9
uncertaintyintheGDP-basedemissionsprojections.Wethususethestandarddeviationofthe10
annualIFFfortheperiod2006-2016asameasureofuncertainty,reflectinga±1σasintherestof11
thecarbonbudget.Thisis±1.1%yr-1fortherestoftheworld(globalemissionsminusChina,USA,12
andIndia).13
The2017projectionfortheworldismadeofthesumoftheprojectionsforChina,USA,India,and14
therest.Theuncertaintyisaddedinquadratureamongthethreeregions.Theuncertaintyhere15
reflectsthebestofourexpertopinion.16
2.2 CO2emissionsfromlanduse,land-usechangeandforestry(ELUC)17
Land-usechangeemissionsreportedhere(ELUC)includeCO2fluxesfromdeforestation,18
afforestation,logging(forestdegradationandharvestactivity),shiftingcultivation(cycleofcutting19
forestforagriculture,thenabandoning),andregrowthofforestsfollowingwoodharvestor20
abandonmentofagriculture.Onlysomelandmanagementactivitiesareincludedinourland-use21
changeemissionsestimates(Table4a).SomeoftheseactivitiesleadtoemissionsofCO2tothe22
atmosphere,whileothersleadtoCO2sinks.ELUCisthenetsumofallanthropogenicactivities23
considered.Ourannualestimatefor1959-2016isprovidedastheaverageofresultsfromtwo24
bookkeepingmodels(Sect.2.2.1):theestimatepublishedbyHoughtonandNassikas(2017;25
hereafterH&N2017)extendedhereto2016,andtheaverageoftwosimulationsdonewiththe26
BLUEmodel(“bookkeepingoflanduseemissions”;Hansisetal.,2015).Inaddition,weuseresults27
fromDGVMs(seeSect.2.2.3andTable4a),tohelpquantifytheuncertaintyinELUC,andtoexplore28
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theconsistencyofourunderstanding.Thethreemethodsaredescribedbelow,anddifferences1
arediscussedinSect.3.2.2
2.2.1 Bookkeepingmodels3
Land-usechangeCO2emissionsanduptakefluxesarecalculatedbytwobookkeepingmodels.4
BotharebasedontheoriginalbookkeepingapproachofHoughton(2003)thatkeepstrackofthe5
carbonstoredinvegetationandsoilsbeforeandafteraland-usechange(transitionsbetween6
variousnaturalvegetationtypes,croplandsandpastures).Literature-basedresponsecurves7
describedecayofvegetationandsoilcarbon,includingtransfertoproductpoolsofdifferent8
lifetimes,aswellascarbonuptakeduetoregrowth.Additionally,itrepresentspermanent9
degradationofforestsbylowervegetationandsoilcarbonstocksforsecondaryascomparedto10
theprimaryforestsandforestmanagementsuchaswoodharvest.11
Thebookkeepingmodelsdonotincludelandecosystems’transientresponsetochangesin12
climate,atmosphericCO2andotherenvironmentalfactors,andthecarbondensitiesarebasedon13
contemporarydatareflectingstableenvironmentalconditionsatthattime.Sincecarbondensities14
remainfixedovertimeinbookkeepingmodels,theadditionalsinkcapacitythatecosystems15
provideinresponsetoCO2-fertilizationandotherenvironmentalchangesisnotcapturedbythese16
models(Pongratzetal.,2014;seeSection2.7.3).17
TheH&NandBLUEmodelsdifferin(1)computationalunits(country-levelvsspatiallyexplicit18
treatmentofland-usechange),(2)processesrepresented(seeTable4a),and(3)carbondensities19
assignedtovegetationandsoilofeachvegetationtype.AnotablechangeofH&Noverthe20
originalapproachbyHoughtonetal.(2003)usedinearlierbudgetestimatesisthatnoshifting21
cultivationorotherback-andforth-transitionsatalevelbelowcountrylevelareincluded.Onlya22
declineinforestareainacountryasindicatedbytheForestResourceAssessmentoftheFAOthat23
exceedstheexpansionofagriculturalareaasindicatedbyFAOisassumedtorepresenta24
concurrentexpansionandabandonmentofcropland.Incontrast,theBLUEmodelincludessub-25
grid-scaletransitionsatthegridlevelbetweenallvegetationtypesasindicatedbytheharmonized26
land-usechangedata(LUH2)dataset(Hurttetal.,inprep.).Furthermore,H&Nassumeconversion27
ofnaturalgrasslandstopasture,whileBLUEallocatespastureproportionallyonallnatural28
vegetationthatexistinagridcell.ThisisonereasonforgenerallyhigheremissionsinBLUE.H&N29
addcarbonemissionsfrompeatburningbasedontheGlobalFireEmissionDatabase(GFED4s;van30
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derWerfetal.(2017)),andpeatdrainage,basedonestimatesbyHooijeretal.(2010)tothe1
outputoftheirbookkeepingmodelforthecountriesofIndonesiaandMalaysia.Peatburningand2
emissionsfromtheorganiclayersofdrainedpeatsoils,whicharenotcapturedbybookkeeping3
methodsdirectly,needtobeincludedtorepresentthesubstantiallylargeremissionsand4
interannualvariabilityduetosynergiesofland-usechangeandclimatevariabilityinSouthEast5
Asia,inparticularduringEl-Niñoevents.SimilarlytoH&N,peatburninganddrainage-related6
emissionsarealsoaddedtotheBLUEestimatebasedonGFED4s(vanderWerfetal.,2017),7
addingthepeatburningfortheGFEDregionofequatorialAsia,andthepeatdrainagefor8
SoutheastAsiafromHooijeretal(2010).9
Thetwobookkeepingestimatesusedinthisstudyalsodifferwithrespecttotheland-cover10
changedatausedtodrivethemodels.H&NbasetheirestimatesdirectlyontheForestResource11
AssessmentoftheFAOwhichprovidesstatisticsonforest-coverchangeandmanagementat12
intervalsoffiveyears(FAO,2015).Thedataisbasedoncountries’self-reporting,someofwhich13
includesatellitedatainmorerecentassessments.Changesinlandcoverotherthanforestsare14
basedonannual,nationalchangesincroplandandpastureareasreportedbytheFAOStatistics15
Division(FAOSTAT,2015).BLUEusestheharmonizedland-usechangedataLUH2(Hurttetal.,in16
prep.)whichdescribeslandcoverchange,alsobasedontheFAOdata,butdownscaledata17
quarter-degreespatialresolution,consideringsub-grid-scaletransitionsbetweenprimaryforest,18
secondaryforest,cropland,pastureandrangeland.ThenewLUH2dataprovidesanewdistinction19
betweenrangelandsandpasture.Thisisimplementedbyassumingrangelandsaretreatedeither20
allaspastures,orallasnaturalvegetation.Thesetwoassumptionsarethenaveragedtoprovide21
theBLUEresultthatisclosesttotheexpectedrealvalue.22
TheestimateofH&Nwasextendedherebyoneyear(to2016)byaddingtheanomalyoftotal23
peatemissions(burninganddrainage)fromGFED4soverthepreviousdecade(2006-2015)tothe24
decadalaverageofthebookkeepingresult.Asmallcorrectiontotheir2015valuewasalsomade25
basedontheupdatedpeatburningofGFED4s.26
2.2.2 DynamicGlobalVegetationModels(DGVMs)27
Land-usechangeCO2emissionshavealsobeenestimatedusinganensembleof12DGVM28
simulations.TheDGVMsaccountfordeforestationandregrowth,themostimportant29
componentsofELUC,buttheydonotrepresentallprocessesresultingdirectlyfromhuman30
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activitiesonland(Table4a).AllDGVMsrepresentprocessesofvegetationgrowthandmortality,1
aswellasdecompositionofdeadorganicmatterassociatedwithnaturalcycles,andincludethe2
vegetationandsoilcarbonresponsetoincreasingatmosphericCO2levelsandtoclimatevariability3
andchange.Somemodelsexplicitlysimulatethecouplingofcarbonandnitrogencyclesand4
accountforatmosphericNdeposition(Table4a).TheDGVMsareindependentfromtheother5
budgettermsexceptfortheiruseofatmosphericCO2concentrationtocalculatethefertilization6
effectofCO2onplantphotosynthesis.7
TheDGVMsusedtheHYDEland-usechangedataset(KleinGoldewijketal.,inpress.;Klein8
Goldewijketal.,2017),whichprovidesannual,half-degree,fractionaldataoncroplandand9
pasture.ThesedataarebasedonannualFAOstatisticsofchangeinagriculturalareaavailableto10
2012(FAOSTAT,2015).Fortheyears2015and2016,theHYDEdatawereextrapolatedbycountry11
forpasturesandcroplandseparatelybasedonthetrendinagriculturalareaovertheprevious512
years.Somemodelsalsouseanupdateofthemorecomprehensiveharmonisedland-usedataset13
(Hurttetal.,2011),thatfurtherincludesfractionaldataonprimaryvegetationandsecondary14
vegetation,aswellasallunderlyingtransitionsbetweenland-usestates(Hurttetal.,inprep.).15
Thisnewdatasetisofquarterdegreefractionalareasoflandusestatesandalltransitions16
betweenthosestates,includinganewwoodharvestreconstruction,newrepresentationof17
shiftingcultivation,croprotations,managementinformationincludingirrigationandfertilizer18
application.Theland-usestatesnowincludetwodifferentpasture/grazingtypes,and5different19
croptypes.WoodharvestpatternsareconstrainedwithLandsatforestlossdata.20
DGVMsimplementland-usechangedifferently(e.g.anincreasedcroplandfractioninagridcell21
caneitherbeattheexpenseofgrasslandorshrubs,orforest,thelatterresultingindeforestation;22
landcoverfractionsofthenon-agriculturallanddifferbetweenmodels).Similarly,model-specific23
assumptionsareappliedtoconvertdeforestedbiomassordeforestedarea,andotherforest24
productpoolsintocarbon,anddifferentchoicesaremaderegardingtheallocationofrangelands25
asnaturalvegetationorpastures.26
TheDGVMmodelrunswereforcedbyeither6hourlyCRU-NCEPorbymonthlyCRUtemperature,27
precipitation,andcloudcoverfields(transformedintoincomingsurfaceradiation)basedon28
observationsandprovidedona0.5°x0.5°gridandupdatedto2016(Harrisetal.,2014;Viovy,29
2016).TheforcingdataincludebothgriddedobservationsofclimateandglobalatmosphericCO2,30
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whichchangeovertime(DlugokenckyandTans,2017),andNdeposition(asusedinsomemodels;1
Table4a).2
TwosetsofsimulationswereperformedwiththeDGVMs.Thefirstforcedinitiallywithhistorical3
changesinlandcoverdistribution,climate,atmosphericCO2concentration,andNdeposition,and4
thesecond,asfurtherdescribedbelow,withatime-invariantpreindustriallandcoverdistribution,5
allowingthemodelstoestimate,bydifferencewiththefirstsimulation,thedynamicevolutionof6
biomassandsoilcarbonpoolsinresponsetoprescribedland-coverchange.ELUCisdiagnosedin7
eachmodelbythedifferencebetweenthesetwosimulations.Weonlyretainmodeloutputswith8
positiveELUCduringthe1990s.UsingthedifferencebetweenthesetwoDGVMsimulationsto9
diagnoseELUCmeanstheDGVMsaccountforthelossofadditionalsinkcapacity(around0.3GtC10
yr-1;seeSection2.7.3),whilethebookkeepingmodelsdonot.11
2.2.3 UncertaintyassessmentforELUC12
DifferencesbetweenthebookkeepingmodelsandDGVMmodelsoriginatefromthreemain13
sources:thelandcoverchangedataset,thedifferentapproachesusedinmodels,andthe14
differentprocessesrepresented(Table4a).WeexaminetheresultsfromtheDGVMmodelsand15
ofthebookkeepingmethodtoassesstheuncertaintyinELUC.16
TheELUCestimatefromtheDGVMsmulti-modelmeanisconsistentwiththeaverageofthe17
emissionsfromthebookkeepingmodels(Table6).Howevertherearelargedifferencesamong18
individualDGVMs(standarddeviationataround0.5-0.6GtCyr-1;Table6),betweenthetwo19
bookkeepingmodels(averageof0.5GtCyr-1),andbetweenthecurrentestimateofH&Nandits20
previousmodelversion(Houghtonetal.,2012)asusedinpastGlobalCarbonBudgets(LeQuéré21
etal.2016;averageof0.3GtCyr-1).Giventhelargespreadinnewestimatesweraiseour22
assessmentofuncertaintyinELUCto±0.7GtCyr-1(from0.5GtCyr-1)asasemi-quantitative23
measureofuncertaintyforannualemissions.Thisreflectsourbestvaluejudgmentthatthereisat24
least68%chance(±1σ)thatthetrueland-usechangeemissionlieswithinthegivenrange,forthe25
rangeofprocessesconsideredhere.Priorto1959,theuncertaintyinELUCwastakenfromthe26
standarddeviationoftheDGVMs.WeassignlowconfidencetotheannualestimatesofELUC27
becauseoftheinconsistenciesamongestimatesandofthedifficultiestoquantifysomeofthe28
processesinDGVMs.29
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2.2.4 Emissionsprojections1
WeprovideanassessmentofELUCfor2017byaddingtheanomalyoffireemissionsin2
deforestationareas,includingthosefrompeatfires,fromGFED4s(vanderWerfetal.,2017)over3
thelastyearavailable.Emissionsareestimatedusingactivefiredata(MCD14ML;Giglioetal.4
(2003)),whichareavailableinnear-realtime,andcorrelationsbetweenthoseandGFED4s5
emissionsforthe2001-2016periodfor12thecorrespondingmonths.EmissionsduringJanuary-6
OctobercovermostofthefiresseasonintheAmazonandSoutheastAsia,wherealargepartof7
theglobaldeforestationtakesplace.8
2.3 GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)9
2.3.1 GlobalgrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration10
TherateofgrowthoftheatmosphericCO2concentrationisprovidedbytheUSNationalOceanic11
andAtmosphericAdministrationEarthSystemResearchLaboratory(NOAA/ESRL;Dlugokencky12
andTans,2017),whichisupdatedfromBallantyneetal.(2012).Forthe1959-1980period,the13
globalgrowthrateisbasedonmeasurementsofatmosphericCO2concentrationaveragedfrom14
theMaunaLoaandSouthPolestations,asobservedbytheCO2ProgramatScrippsInstitutionof15
Oceanography(Keelingetal.,1976).Forthe1980-2016timeperiod,theglobalgrowthrateis16
basedontheaverageofmultiplestationsselectedfromthemarineboundarylayersiteswithwell-17
mixedbackgroundair(Ballantyneetal.,2012),afterfittingeachstationwithasmoothedcurveas18
afunctionoftime,andaveragingbylatitudeband(MasarieandTans,1995).Theannualgrowth19
rateisestimatedbyDlugokenckyandTans(2017)fromatmosphericCO2concentrationbytaking20
theaverageofthemostrecentDecember-Januarymonthscorrectedfortheaverageseasonal21
cycleandsubtractingthissameaverageoneyearearlier.Thegrowthrateinunitsofppmyr-1is22
convertedtounitsofGtCyr-1bymultiplyingbyafactorof2.12GtCperppm(Ballantyneetal.,23
2012).24
Theuncertaintyaroundtheannualgrowthratebasedonthemultiplestationsdatasetranges25
between0.11and0.72GtCyr-1,withameanof0.61GtCyr-1for1959-1979and0.19GtCyr-1for26
1980-2016,whenalargersetofstationswereavailable(DlugokenckyandTans,2017).Itisbased27
onthenumberofavailablestations,andthustakesintoaccountboththemeasurementerrors28
anddatagapsateachstation.Thisuncertaintyindecadalchangeiscomputedfromthedifference29
inconcentrationtenyearsapartbasedonameasurementerrorof0.35ppm.Thiserrorisbased30
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onoffsetsbetweenNOAA/ESRLmeasurementsandthoseoftheWorldMeteorological1
OrganizationWorldDataCentreforGreenhouseGases(NOAA/ESRL,2015)forthestartandend2
points(thedecadalchangeuncertaintyisthe 2 0.35DDE F (10GH)IJassumingthateach3
yearlymeasurementerrorisindependent).4
WeassignahighconfidencetotheannualestimatesofGATMbecausetheyarebasedondirect5
measurementsfrommultipleandconsistentinstrumentsandstationsdistributedaroundthe6
world(Ballantyneetal.,2012).7
Inordertoestimatethetotalcarbonaccumulatedintheatmospheresince1750or1870,weuse8
anatmosphericCO2concentrationof277±3ppmor288±3ppm,respectively,basedonacubic9
splinefittoicecoredata(JoosandSpahni,2008).Theuncertaintyof±3ppm(convertedto±1σ)is10
takendirectlyfromtheIPCC’sassessment(Ciaisetal.,2013).Typicaluncertaintiesinthegrowth11
rateinatmosphericCO2concentrationfromicecoredataareequivalentto±0.1-0.15GtCyr-1as12
evaluatedfromtheLawDomedata(Etheridgeetal.,1996)forindividual20-yearintervalsover13
theperiodfrom1870to1960(BrunoandJoos,1997).14
2.3.2 Growthrateprojection15
WeprovideanassessmentofGATMfor2017basedontheobservedincreaseinatmosphericCO216
concentrationattheMaunaLoastationforJanuarytoSeptember,andmonthlyforecastsfor17
OctobertoDecemberupdatedfromBettsetal.(2016).Theforecastusesastatisticalrelationship18
betweenannualCO2growthrateandseasurfacetemperatures(SSTs)intheNiño3.4region.The19
forecastSSTsfromtheGLOSEAseasonalforecastmodelwasthenusedtoestimatemonthlyCO220
concentrationsatMaunaLoathroughoutthefollowingcalendaryear,assumingastationary21
seasonalcycle.TheforecastCO2concentrationsforJanuarytoAugust2017wereclosetothe22
observations,soupdatingthe2017forecastbysimplyaveragingtheobservedandforecastvalues23
isconsideredjustified.GrowthatMaunaLoaiscloselycorrelatedwiththeglobalgrowth(r=0.95)24
andisusedhereasaproxyforglobalgrowth.25
2.4 OceanCO2sink26
EstimatesoftheglobaloceanCO2sinkSOCEANarefromanensembleofglobalocean27
biogeochemistrymodels(GOBM)thatmeetobservationalconstraintsoverthe1990s(seebelow).28
Weuseobservation-basedestimatesofSOCEANtoprovideaqualitativeassessmentofconfidencein29
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thereportedresults,andtoestimatethecumulativeaccumulationofSOCEANoverthepreindustrial1
period.2
2.4.1 Observation-basedestimates3
WeusetheobservationalconstraintsassessedbyIPCCofameanoceanCO2sinkof2.2±0.4GtC4
yr-1forthe1990s(Denmanetal.,2007)toverifythattheGOBMsprovidearealisticassessmentof5
SOCEAN.Thisisbasedonindirectobservationsandtheirspread:ocean/landCO2sinkpartitioning6
fromobservedatmosphericO2/N2concentrationtrends(ManningandKeeling,2006;updatedin7
KeelingandManning2014),anoceanicinversionmethodconstrainedbyoceanbiogeochemistry8
data(MikaloffFletcheretal.,2006),andamethodbasedonpenetrationtimescaleforCFCs9
(McNeiletal.,2003).Thisestimateisconsistentwitharangeofmethods(Wanninkhofetal.,10
2013).AllGOBMsfallwithin90%confidenceoftheobservedrange,or1.6to2.8GtCyr-1forthe11
1990s.12
WeusetwoestimatesoftheoceanCO2sinkanditsvariabilitybasedoninterpolationsof13
measurementsofsurfaceoceanfugacityofCO2(pCO2correctedforthenon-idealbehaviourof14
thegas;Pfeiletal.,2013).WerefertotheseaspCO2-basedfluxestimates.Themeasurementsare15
fromtheSurfaceOceanCO2Atlasversion5,whichisanupdateofversion3(Bakkeretal.,2016)16
andcontainsquality-controlleddatato2016(seedataattributionTableA2).TheSOCATv5were17
mappedusingadata-drivendiagnosticmethod(Rödenbecketal.,2013)andacombinedself-18
organisingmapandfeed-forwardneuralnetwork(Landschützeretal.,2014).TheglobalpCO2-19
basedfluxestimateswereadjustedtoremovethepreindustrialoceansourceofCO2tothe20
atmosphereof0.45GtCyr-1fromriverinputtotheocean(Jacobsonetal.,2007),perour21
definitionofSOCEAN.Severalotherfluxproductsareavailable,buttheyshowlargediscrepancies22
withobservedvariabilitythatneedtoberesolved.HereweusedthetwopCO2-basedflux23
productsthathadthebestfittoobservationsfortheirrepresentationoftropicalandglobal24
variability(Rödenbecketal.,2015).25
WefurtheruseresultsfromtwodiagnosticoceanmodelsofKhatiwalaetal.(2013)andDeVrieset26
al.(2014)toestimatetheanthropogeniccarbonaccumulatedintheoceanpriorto1959.Thetwo27
approachesassumeconstantoceancirculationandbiologicalfluxesoverthepreindustrialperiod,28
withSOCEANestimatedasaresponseinthechangeinatmosphericCO2concentrationcalibratedto29
observations.Theuncertaintyincumulativeuptakeof±20GtC(convertedto±1σ)istakendirectly30
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fromtheIPCC’sreviewoftheliterature(Rheinetal.,2013),orabout±30%fortheannualvalues1
(Khatiwalaetal.,2009).2
2.4.2 GlobalOceanBiogeochemistryModels(GOBM)3
TheoceanCO2sinkfor1959-2016isestimatedusingeightGOBM(Table4b)thatmeet4
observationalconstraintsforthemeanoceansinkinthe1990s.TheGOBMrepresentthephysical,5
chemicalandbiologicalprocessesthatinfluencethesurfaceoceanconcentrationofCO2andthus6
theair-seaCO2flux.TheGOBMareforcedbymeteorologicalreanalysisandatmosphericCO27
concentrationdataavailablefortheentiretimeperiod,andmostlydifferinthesourceofthe8
atmosphericforcingdata,spinupstrategies,andintheresolutionoftheoceanicphysical9
processes(Table4b).GOBMsdonotincludetheeffectsofanthropogenicchangesinnutrient10
supply,whichcouldleadtoanincreaseoftheoceansinkofuptoabout0.3GtCyr-1overthe11
industrialperiod(Duceetal.,2008).Theyalsodonotincludetheperturbationassociatedwith12
changesinriverorganiccarbon,whichisdiscussedSect.2.7.13
TheoceanCO2sinkforeachGOBMisnolongernormalisedtotheobservationsasinprevious14
globalcarbonbudgets(e.g.LeQuéréetal.2016).Thenormalisationwasmostlyintendedto15
ensureSLANDhadarealisticmeanvalueasitwaspreviouslyestimatedfromthebudgetresidual.16
Withtheintroductionofthebudgetresidual(Eq.1)alltermscanbeestimatedindependently.17
RathertheoceanicobservationsareusedintheselectionoftheGOBM,byusingonlytheGOBM18
thatproduceanoceanicCO2sinkoverthe1990sconsistentwithobservations,asexplained19
above.20
2.4.3 UncertaintyassessmentforSOCEAN21
TheuncertaintyaroundthemeanoceansinkofanthropogenicCO2wasquantifiedbyDenmanet22
al.(2007)forthe1990s(seeSect.2.4.1).Toquantifytheuncertaintyaroundannualvalues,we23
examinethestandarddeviationoftheGOBMensemble,whichaveragesbetween0.2and0.3GtC24
yr-1during1959-2017.WeestimatethattheuncertaintyintheannualoceanCO2sinkisabout±25
0.5GtCyr-1fromthecombineduncertaintyofthemeanfluxbasedonobservationsof±0.4GtCyr-261andthestandarddeviationacrossGOBMsofupto±0.3GtCyr-1,reflectingboththeuncertainty27
inthemeansinkfromobservationsduringthe1990’s(Denmanetal.,2007;Section2.4.1)andin28
theinterannualvariabilityasassessedbyGOBMs.29
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Weexaminetheconsistencybetweenthevariabilityofthemodel-basedandthepCO2-basedflux1
productstoassessconfidenceinSOCEAN.Theinterannualvariabilityoftheoceanfluxes(quantified2
asthestandarddeviation)ofthetwopCO2-basedproductsfor1986-2016(wheretheyoverlap)is3
±0.35GtCyr-1(Rödenbecketal.,2014)and±0.36GtCyr-1(Landschützeretal.,2015),compared4
to±0.27GtCyr-1forthenormalisedGOBMensemble.Thestandarddeviationincludesa5
componentoftrendanddecadalvariabilityinadditiontointerannualvariability,andtheirrelative6
influencediffersacrossestimates.TheestimatesgenerallyproduceahigheroceanCO2sinkduring7
strongElNiñoevents.TheannualpCO2-basedfluxproductscorrelatewiththeoceanCO2sink8
estimatedherewithacorrelationofr=0.75(0.49to0.84forindividualGOBMs),andr=0.789
(0.46to0.80)forthepCO2-basedfluxproductsofRödenbecketal.(2014)andLandschützeretal.10
(2015),respectively(simplelinearregression),withtheirmutualcorrelationat0.70.The11
agreementisbetterfordecadalvariabilitythanforinterannualvariability.Theuseofannualdata12
forthecorrelationmayreducethestrengthoftherelationshipbecausethedominantsourceof13
variabilityassociatedwithElNiñoeventsislessthanoneyear.Weassessamediumconfidence14
leveltotheannualoceanCO2sinkanditsuncertaintybecauseitisfbasedonmultiplelinesof15
evidence,andtheresultsareconsistentinthattheinterannualvariabilityintheGOBMsanddata-16
basedestimatesareallgenerallysmallcomparedtothevariabilityinthegrowthrateof17
atmosphericCO2concentration.18
2.5 TerrestrialCO2sink19
Theterrestriallandsink(SLAND)isthoughttobeduetothecombinedeffectsoffertilisationby20
risingatmosphericCO2andNdepositiononplantgrowth,aswellastheeffectsofclimatechange21
suchasthelengtheningofthegrowingseasoninnortherntemperateandborealareas.SLANDdoes22
notincludegrosslandsinksdirectlyresultingfromland-usechange(e.g.regrowthofvegetation)23
asthesearepartofthenetlanduseflux(ELUC),althoughsystemboundariesmakeitdifficultto24
attributeexactlyCO2fluxesonlandbetweenSLANDandELUC(Erbetal.,2013).25
Newtothe2017GlobalCarbonBudget,SLANDisestimatedfromthemulti-modelmeanofthe26
DGVMs(Table4a).AsdescribedinSect.2.2.3,DGVMsimulationsincludeallclimatevariabilityand27
CO2effectsoverland.TheDGVMsdonotincludetheperturbationassociatedwithchangesin28
riverorganiccarbon,whichisdiscussedSect.2.7.WeapplythreecriteriaforminimumDGVM29
realismbyincludingonlythoseDGVMswith(1)steadystateafterspinup,(2)whereavailable,net30
landfluxes(SLAND–ELUC)thatisacarbonsinkoverthe1990sbetween-0.3and2.3GtCyr-1,within31
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90%confidenceofconstraintsbyglobalatmosphericandoceanicobservations(Keelingand1
Manning,2014;Wanninkhofetal.,2013),and(3)globalELUCthatisacarbonsourceoverthe2
1990s.3
ThestandarddeviationoftheannualCO2sinkacrosstheDGVMsaveragesto±0.8GtCyr-1forthe4
period1959to2016.WeattachamediumconfidenceleveltotheannuallandCO2sinkandits5
uncertaintybecausetheestimatesfromtheresidualbudgetandaveragedDGVMsmatchwell6
withintheirrespectiveuncertainties(Table6).7
2.6 Theatmosphericperspective8
Theworld-widenetworkofatmosphericmeasurementscanbeusedwithatmosphericinversion9
methodstoconstrainthelocationofthecombinedtotalsurfaceCO2fluxesfromallsources,10
includingfossilandland-usechangeemissionsandlandandoceanCO2fluxes.Theinversions11
assumeEFFtobewellknown,andtheysolveforthespatialandtemporaldistributionoflandand12
oceanfluxesfromtheresidualgradientsofCO2betweenstationsthatarenotexplainedby13
emissions.14
Threeatmosphericinversions(Table4c)usedatmosphericCO2datatotheendof2016(including15
preliminaryvaluesinsomecases)toinferthespatio-temporalCO2fluxfield.Wefocushereonthe16
largestandmostconsistentsourcesofinformation(namelythetotalCO2fluxoverlandregions,17
andthedistributionofthetotallandandoceanCO2fluxesforthemid-highlatitudenorthern18
hemisphere(30°N-90°N),Tropics(30°S-30°N)andmid-highlatituderegionofthesouthern19
hemisphere(30°S-90°S)),andusetheseestimatestocommentontheconsistencyacrossvarious20
datastreamsandprocess-basedestimates.21
Atmosphericinversions22
ThethreeinversionsystemsusedinthisreleasearetheCarbonTrackerEurope(CTE;vanderLaan-23
Luijkxetal.,2017),theJenaCarboScope(Rödenbeck,2005),andCAMS(Chevallieretal.,2005).24
SeeTable4cforversionnumbers.ThethreeinversionsarebasedonthesameBayesianinversion25
principlesthatinterpretthesame,forthemostpart,observedtimeseries(orsubsetsthereof),26
butusedifferentmethodologies(Table4c).Thesedifferencesmainlyconcerntheselectionof27
atmosphericCO2data,theusedpriorfluxes,spatialbreakdown(i.e.gridsize),assumed28
correlationstructures,andmathematicalapproach.Thedetailsoftheseapproachesare29
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documentedextensivelyinthereferencesprovidedabove.Eachsystemusesadifferenttransport1
model,whichwasdemonstratedtobeadrivingfactorbehinddifferencesinatmospheric-based2
fluxestimates,andspecificallytheirdistributionacrosslatitudinalbands(Stephensetal.,2007).3
ThethreeinversionsuseatmosphericCO2observationsfromvariousflaskandinsitunetworks,as4
detailedinTable4c.TheyprescribeglobalEFF,whichisscaledtothepresentstudyforCAMSand5
CTE,whileCarboScopeusesCDIACextendedafter2013usingtheemissiongrowthrateofthe6
presentstudy.Inversionresultsforthesumofnaturaloceanandlandfluxes(Fig.8)aremore7
constrainedintheNorthernhemisphere(NH)thanintheTropics,becauseofthehigher8
measurementstationsdensityintheNH.Resultsfromatmosphericinversions,similartothe9
pCO2-basedoceanfluxproducts,needtobecorrectedfortheriverfluxes.Theatmospheric10
inversionsprovidenewinformationontheregionaldistributionoffluxes.11
2.7 Processesnotincludedintheglobalcarbonbudget12
ThecontributionofanthropogenicCOandCH4totheglobalcarbonbudgethasbeenpartly13
neglectedinEq.1andisdescribedinSect.2.7.1.Thecontributionofanthropogenicchangesin14
riverfluxesisconceptuallyincludedinEq.1inSOCEANandinSLAND,butitisnotrepresentedinthe15
processmodelsusedtoquantifythesefluxes.ThiseffectisdiscussedinSect.2.7.2.Similarly,the16
lossofadditionalsinkcapacityfromreducedforestcoverismissinginthecombinationof17
approachedusedheretoestimatebothlandfluxes(ELUCandSLAND)anditspotentialeffectis18
discussedandquantifiedinSect.2.7.3.19
2.7.1 ContributionofanthropogenicCOandCH4totheglobalcarbonbudget20
AnthropogenicemissionsofCOandCH4totheatmosphereareeventuallyoxidizedtoCO2and21
thusarepartoftheglobalcarbonbudget.ThesecontributionsareomittedinEq.(1),butan22
attemptismadeinthissectiontoestimatetheirmagnitude,andidentifythesourcesof23
uncertainty.AnthropogenicCOemissionsarefromincompletefossilfuelandbiofuelburningand24
deforestationfires.ThemainanthropogenicemissionsoffossilCH4thatmatterfortheglobal25
carbonbudgetarethefugitiveemissionsofcoal,oilandgasupstreamsectors(seebelow).These26
emissionsofCOandCH4contributeanetadditionoffossilcarbontotheatmosphere.27
InourestimateofEFFweassumed(Sect.2.1.1)thatallthefuelburnedisemittedasCO2,thusCO28
anthropogenicemissionsandtheiratmosphericoxidationintoCO2withinafewmonthsare29
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alreadycountedimplicitlyinEFFandshouldnotbecountedtwice(sameforELUCand1
anthropogenicCOemissionsbydeforestationfires).AnthropogenicemissionsoffossilCH4arenot2
includedinEFF,becausethesefugitiveemissionsarenotincludedinthefuelinventories.Yetthey3
contributetotheannualCO2growthrateafterCH4getsoxidizedintoCO2.Anthropogenic4
emissionsoffossilCH4represent15%oftotalCH4emissions(Kirschkeetal.,2013)thatis0.0615
GtCyr-1forthepastdecade.Assumingsteadystate,theseemissionsareallconvertedtoCO2by6
OHoxidation,andthusexplain0.06GtCyr-1oftheglobalCO2growthrateinthepastdecade,or7
0.07-0.1GtCyr-1usingthehigherCH4emissionsreportedrecently(Schwietzkeetal.,2016).8
OtheranthropogenicchangesinthesourcesofCOandCH4fromwildfires,biomass,wetlands,9
ruminantsorpermafrostchangesaresimilarlyassumedtohaveasmalleffectontheCO2growth10
rate.11
2.7.2 Anthropogeniccarbonfluxesinthelandtooceanaquaticcontinuum 12
Theapproachusedtodeterminetheglobalcarbonbudgetreferstothemean,variations,and13
trendsintheperturbationofCO2intheatmosphere,referencedtothepreindustrialera.Carbonis14
continuouslydisplacedfromthelandtotheoceanthroughtheland-oceanaquaticcontinuum15
(LOAC)comprisingfreshwaters,estuariesandcoastalareas(Baueretal.,2013;Regnieretal.,16
2013).Asignificantfractionofthislateralcarbonfluxisentirely‘natural’andisthusasteadystate17
componentofthepreindustrialcarboncycle.Weaccountforthispreindustrialfluxwhere18
appropriateinourstudy.However,changesinenvironmentalconditionsandlandusechange19
havecausedanincreaseinthelateraltransportofcarbonintotheLOAC–aperturbationthatis20
relevantfortheglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedhere.21
TheresultsoftheanalysisofRegnieretal.(2013)canbesummarizedintwopointsofrelevance22
fortheanthropogenicCO2budget.First,theanthropogenicperturbationhasincreasedthe23
organiccarbonexportfromterrestrialecosystemstothehydrosphereatarateof1.0±0.5GtCyr-241,mainlyowingtoenhancedcarbonexportfromsoils.Second,thisexportedanthropogenic25
carbonispartlyrespiredthroughtheLOAC,partlysequesteredinsedimentsalongtheLOACand26
toalesserextent,transferredintheopenoceanwhereitmayaccumulate.Theincreaseinstorage27
ofland-derivedorganiccarbonintheLOACandopenoceancombinedisestimatedbyRegnieret28
al.(2013)at0.65±0.35GtCyr-1.WedonotattempttoincorporatethechangesinLOACinour29
study.30
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TheinclusionoffreshwaterfluxesofanthropogenicCO2affectstheestimatesof,andpartitioning1
between,SLANDandSOCEANinEq.(1)incomplementaryways,butdoesnotaffecttheotherterms.2
ThiseffectisnotincludedintheGOBMsandDGVMsusedinourglobalcarbonbudgetanalysis3
presentedhere.4
2.7.3 Lossofadditionalsinkcapacity 5
TheDGVMsimulationsnowusedtoestimateSLANDarecarriedoutwithafixedpreindustrialland-6
cover.Hence,theyoverestimatethelandsinkbyignoringhistoricalchangesinvegetationcover7
duetolanduseandhowthisaffectedtheglobalterrestrialbiosphere’scapacitytoremoveCO28
fromtheatmosphere.Historicalland-coverchangewasdominatedbytransitionsfromvegetation9
typesthatcanprovidealargesinkperareaunit(typically,forests)tootherslessefficientin10
removingCO2fromtheatmosphere(typically,croplands).Theresultantdecreaseinlandsink,11
calledthe‘lossofsinkcapacity’,iscalculatedasthedifferencebetweentheactuallandsinkunder12
changingland-coverandthecounter-factuallandsinkunderpreindustrialland-cover.13
Here,weprovideaquantitativeestimateofthistermtobeusedinthediscussion.Ourestimate14
usesthecompactEarthsystemmodelOSCAR(Gasseretal.,2017)whoselandcarboncycle15
componentisdesignedtoemulatethebehaviourofTRENDYandCMIP5complexmodels.Weuse16
OSCARv2.2.1(anupdateofv2.2inwhichminorchanges)inaprobabilisticsetupidenticaltothe17
oneofArnethetal.(2017)butwithaMonteCarloensembleof2000simulations.Foreach,we18
calculateseparatelySLANDandthelossofadditionalsinkcapacity.Wethenconstraintheensemble19
byweightingeachmembertoobtainadistributionofcumulativeSLANDover1850-2005closeto20
theDGVMsusedhere.Fromthisensemble,weestimatealossofadditionalsinkcapacityof0.4±21
0.3GtCyr-1onaverageover2005-2014,andbyextrapolationof20±15GtCaccumulated22
between1870and2016.23
3 Results24
3.1 Globalcarbonbudgetmeanandvariabilityfor1959–201625
Theglobalcarbonbudgetaveragedoverthelasthalf-centuryisshowninFig.3.Forthistime26
period,82%ofthetotalemissions(EFF+ELUC)werecausedbyfossilfuelsandindustry,and18%by27
land-usechange.Thetotalemissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere(45%),ocean(23%)28
andland(32%).Allcomponentsexceptland-usechangeemissionshavegrownsince1959,with29
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importantinterannualvariabilityinthegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationandinthe1
landCO2sink(Fig.4),andsomedecadalvariabilityinallterms(Table7).2
3.1.1 CO2emissions 3
GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryhaveincreasedeverydecadefromanaverage4
of3.1±0.2GtCyr-1inthe1960stoanaverageof9.4±0.5GtCyr-1during2007-2016(Table7and5
Fig.5).Thegrowthrateintheseemissionsdecreasedbetweenthe1960sandthe1990s,from6
4.5%yr-1inthe1960s(1960-1969),2.8%yr-1inthe1970s(1970-1979),1.9%yr-1inthe1980s7
(1980-1989),andto1.1%yr-1inthe1990s(1990-1999).Afterthisperiod,thegrowthratebegan8
increasingagaininthe2000satanaveragegrowthrateof3.3%yr-1,decreasingto1.8%yr-1for9
thelastdecade(2007-2016),andto+0.4%yr-1during2014-2016. 10
Incontrast,CO2emissionsfromland-usechangehaveremainedrelativelyconstantataround1.311
±0.7GtCyr-1overthepasthalf-century,inagreementwiththeDGVMensembleofmodels.12
However,thereisnoagreementonthetrendoverthefullperiod,withtwobookkeepingmodels13
suggestingoppositetrendsandnocoherenceamongDGVMs(Fig.6).14
3.1.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland15
ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2levelincreasedfrom1.7±0.1GtCyr-1inthe1960sto4.7±16
0.1GtCyr-1during2007-2016withimportantdecadalvariations(Table7).Bothoceanandland17
CO2sinksincreasedroughlyinlinewiththeatmosphericincrease,butwithsignificantdecadal18
variabilityonland(Table7),andpossiblyintheocean(Fig.7).19
TheoceanCO2sinkincreasedfrom1.0±0.5GtCyr-1inthe1960sto2.4±0.5GtCyr-1during2007-20
2016,withinterannualvariationsoftheorderofafewtenthsofGtCyr-1generallyshowingan21
increasedoceansinkduringlargeElNiñoevents(i.e.1997-1998)(Fig.7;Rödenbecketal.,2014).22
Notetheloweroceansinkestimatecomparedtopreviousglobalcarbonbudgetreleasesisdueto23
thefactthatoceanmodelsarenolongernormalisedtoobservations.Althoughthereissome24
coherenceamongtheGOBMsandpCO2-basedfluxproductsregardingthemean,thereispoor25
agreementforinterannualvariabilityandtheoceanmodelsunderestimatedecadalvariability26
(Sect.2.4.3andFig.7,alsoseenewdata-baseddecadalestimateofDeVriesetal.(2017)).27
TheterrestrialCO2sinkincreasedfrom1.4±0.7GtCyr-1inthe1960sto3.0±0.8GtCyr-1during28
2007-2016,withimportantinterannualvariationsofupto2GtCyr-1generallyshowinga29
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decreasedlandsinkduringElNiñoevents,overcompensatingtheincreaseinoceansinkand1
responsiblefortheenhancedgrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationduringElNiñoevents2
(Fig.6).ThelargerlandCO2sinkduring2007-2016comparedtothe1960sisreproducedbyallthe3
DGVMsinresponsetocombinedatmosphericCO2increase,climateandvariability,consistent4
withconstraintsfromtheotherbudgetterms(Table6).5
ThetotalCO2fluxesonland(SLAND–ELUC)constrainedbytheatmosphericinversionsshowin6
generalverygoodagreementwiththeglobalbudgetestimate,asexpectedgiventhestrong7
constrainsofGATMandthesmallrelativeuncertaintyassumedonSOCEANandEFFbyinversions.The8
totallandfluxisofsimilarmagnitudeforthedecadalaverage,withestimatesfor2007-2016from9
thethreeinversionsof1.8,1.4and2.3GtCyr-1comparedto1.7±0.7GtCyr-1fromtheDGVMs10
and2.3±0.7GtCyr-1forthetotalfluxcomputedwiththecarbonbudgetconstraints(Table6).11
3.1.3 Budgetimbalance12
Thecarbonbudgetimbalance(BIM;Eq.1)quantifiesthemismatchbetweentheestimatedtotal13
emissionsandtheestimatedchangesintheatmosphere,landandoceanreservoirs.Themean14
budgetimbalancefrom1959to2016isverysmall(0.07GtCyr-1)andshowsnotrendoverthefull15
timeseries.Althoughtheprocessmodels(GOBMsandDGVMs)havebeenselectedtomatch16
observationalconstraintsinthe1990s,theyareindependentoftheestimatedemissionsfrom17
fossilfuelsandindustry,andthereforethenear-zeromeanandtrendinthebudgetimbalanceis18
anindirectevidenceofacoherentcommunityunderstandingoftheemissionsandtheir19
partitioningonthosetimescales(Fig.4).However,thebudgetimbalanceshowssubstantial20
variabilityoftheorderof±1GtCyr-1,particularlyoversemi-decadaltimescales,althoughmostof21
thevariabilityiswithintheuncertaintyoftheestimates.Theimbalanceduringthe1960s,early22
1990s,andinthelastdecade,suggestthateithertheemissionswereoverestimatedorthesinks23
wereunderestimatedduringtheseperiods.Thereverseistrueforthe1970sandaround1995-24
2000(Fig.3).25
Wecannotattributethecauseofthevariabilityinthebudgetimbalancewithouranalysis,onlyto26
notethatthebudgetimbalanceisunlikelytobeexplainedbyerrorsorbiasesintheemissions27
alonebecauseofitslargesemi-decadalvariabilitycomponent,avariabilitythatisuntypicalof28
emissions(Fig.4).ErrorsinSLANDandSOCEANaremorelikelytobethemaincauseforthebudget29
imbalance.Forexample,underestimationoftheSLANDbyDGVMshasbeenreportedfollowingthe30
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eruptionofMountPinatuboin1991possiblyduetomissingresponsestochangesindiffuse1
radiation(Mercadoetal.,2009),andDGVMsaresuspectedtooverestimatethelandsinkin2
responsetothewetdecadeofthe1970s(Sitchetal.,2003).Decadalandsemi-decadalvariability3
intheoceansinkhasbeenalsoreportedrecently(DeVriesetal.,2017;Landschützeretal.,2015),4
withthepCO2-basedoceanfluxproductssuggestingasmallerthanexpectedoceanCO2sinkinthe5
1990sandalargerthanexpectedsinkinthe2000s(Fig.7),possiblycausedbychangesinocean6
circulation(DeVriesetal.,2017)notcapturedincoarseresolutionGOBMsusedhere(Dufouret7
al.,2013).8
3.1.4 Regionaldistribution 9
Fig8showsthepartitioningofthetotalsurfacefluxesexcludingemissionsfromfossilfuelsand10
industry(SLAND+SOCEAN–ELUC)accordingtothemulti-modelaverageoftheprocessmodelsinthe11
oceanandonland(GOBMsandDGVMs),andtothethreeatmosphericinversions.Thetotal12
surfacefluxesprovideinformationontheregionaldistributionofthosefluxesbylatitudebands13
(Fig.8).TheglobalmeanCO2fluxesfromprocessmodelsfor2007-2016is4.1±1.0GtCyr-1.Thisis14
comparabletothefluxesof4.6±0.5GtCyr-1inferredfromtheremainderofthecarbonbudget15
(EFF–GATMinEquation1;Table7)withintheirrespectiveuncertainties.ThetotalCO2fluxesfrom16
thethreeinversionsrangebetween4.1and5.0GtCyr-1,consistentwiththecarbonbudgetas17
expectedfromtheconstraintsontheinversions.18
IntheSouth(southof30°S),theatmosphericinversionsandprocessmodelsallsuggestaCO2sink19
for2007-2016around1.3-1.4GtCyr-1(Fig.8),althoughinterannualtodecadalvariabilityisnot20
fullyconsistentacrossmethods.TheinterannualvariabilityintheSouthislowbecauseofthe21
dominanceofoceanareawithlowvariabilitycomparedtolandareas.22
IntheTropics(30°S-30°N),boththeatmosphericinversionsandprocessmodelssuggestthe23
carbonbalanceinthisregionisclosetoneutralonaverageoverthepastdecade,withfluxesfor24
2007-2016rangingbetween–0.5and+0.5GtCyr-1.Boththeprocessmodelsandtheinversions25
consistentlyallocatemoreyear-to-yearvariabilityofCO2fluxestotheTropicscomparedtothe26
North(northof30°N;Fig.8),thisvariabilitybeingdominatedbylandfluxes.27
IntheNorth(northof30°N),theinversionsandprocessmodelsarenotinagreementonthe28
magnitudeoftheCO2sink,withtheensemblemeanoftheprocessmodelssuggestingatotal29
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northernhemispheresinkfor2007-2016of2.3±0.6GtCyr-1,belowtheestimatesfromthethree1
inversionsthatestimateasinkof2.7,3.0and4.1GtCyr-1(Fig.8).Themeandifferencecanonly2
partlybeexplainedbytheinfluenceofriverfluxes,whichisseenbytheinversionsbutnot3
includedintheprocessmodels;thisfluxintheNorthernHemispherewouldbelessthan0.45GtC4
yr-1becauseonlytheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxesneedstobeaccountedfor.The5
CTEandJenaCarboScopeinversionsarewithintheonestandarddeviationoftheprocessmodels6
forthemeansinkduringtheiroverlapperiod,whiletheCAMSinversiongivesahighersinkinthe7
Norththantheprocessmodels,andacorrespondinglyhighersourceintheTropics.8
DifferencesbetweenCTE,CAMS,andJenaCarboScopemayberelatede.g.todifferencesin9
interhemisphericmixingtimeoftheirtransportmodels,andotherinversionsettings(Table4c).10
Separateanalysishasshownthattheinfluenceofthechosenpriorlandandoceanfluxesisminor11
comparedtootheraspectsofeachinversion.Incomparisontothepreviousglobalcarbonbudget12
publication,thefossilfuelinputsforCarboScopechangedtoloweremissionsintheNorth13
comparedtoCTEandCAMS,resultinginasmallerNorthernsinkforCarboScopecomparedtothe14
previousestimate.DifferencesbetweenthemeanfluxesofCAMSintheNorthandtheensemble15
ofprocessmodelscannotbesimplyexplained.Theycouldeitherreflectabiasinthisinversionor16
missingprocessesorbiasesintheprocessmodels,suchasthelackofadequateparameterizations17
forforestmanagementintheNorthandforforestdegradationemissionsinTropicsforthe18
DGVMs.TheestimatedcontributionoftheNorthanditsuncertaintyfromprocessmodelsis19
sensitivebothtotheensembleofprocessmodelsusedandtothespecificsofeachinversion.20
3.2 Globalcarbonbudgetforthelastdecade(2007–2016)21
Theglobalcarbonbudgetaveragedoverthelastdecade(2007-2016)isshowninFig.2.Forthis22
timeperiod,88%ofthetotalemissions(EFF+ELUC)werefromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),and23
12%fromland-usechange(ELUC).Thetotalemissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere24
(44%),ocean(22%)andland(28%),witharemainingunattributedbudgetimbalance(5%).25
3.2.1 CO2emissions26
GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustrygrewatarateof1.8%yr-1forthelastdecade27
(2007-2016),slowingdownto+0.4%yr-1during2014-2016.China’semissionsincreasedby+3.8%28
yr-1onaverage(increasingby+1.7GtCyr-1duringthe10-yearperiod)dominatingtheglobal29
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trends,followedbyIndia’semissionsincreaseby+5.8%yr-1(increasingby+0.30GtCyr-1),while1
emissionsdecreasedinEU28by2.2%yr-1(decreasingby-0.23GtCyr-1),andintheUSAby1.0%yr-21(decreasingby-0.19GtCyr-1).Inthepastdecade,emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry3
decreasedsignificantly(atthe95%level)in26countries.22ofthesecountrieshadpositive4
growthinGDPoverthesametimeperiod,representing20%ofglobalemissions(Austria,Belgium,5
Bulgaria,CzechRepublic,Denmark,France,Hungary,Ireland,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,6
Macedonia,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Romania,Serbia,Slovakia,Sweden,Switzerland,United7
Kingdom,USA).8
Incontrast,thereisnoapparenttrendinCO2emissionsfromland-usechange(Fig.6),thoughthe9
dataisveryuncertain.10
3.2.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland11
ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationwasinitiallyconstantandthenincreased12
duringthelaterpartofthedecade2007-2016,reflectingasimilarconstantlevelfollowedbya13
decreaseinthelandsink,albeitwithlargeinterannualvariability(Fig.4).Duringthesameperiod,14
theoceanCO2sinkappearstohaveintensified,aneffectwhichisparticularlyapparentinthe15
pCO2-basedfluxproducts(Fig.7)andisthoughttooriginateatleastinpartintheSouthernOcean16
(Landschützeretal.,2015).17
3.2.3 Budgetimbalance18
Thebudgetimbalancewas0.6GtCyr-1onaverageover2007-2016.Althoughtheuncertaintiesare19
largeineachterm,thesustainedimbalanceoveradecadesuggestsanoverestimationofthe20
emissionsand/oranunderestimationofthesinks.Suchalargeimbalanceisunlikelytooriginate21
fromtheemissionsalonebecauseitwouldindicatesustainedbiasinemissionsovera10-year22
periodthatisaslargeasthe1-sigmauncertainty.Anorigininthelandand/oroceansinkismore23
likely,giventhelargevariabilityofthelandsinkandthesuspectedunderestimationofdecadal24
variabilityintheoceansink.25
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3.3 Globalcarbonbudgetforyear20161
3.3.1 CO2emissions 2
PreliminaryglobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustrybasedonBPenergystatisticsare3
foremissionsremainingnearlyconstantbetween2015and2016at9.9±0.5GtCin2016(Fig.5),4
distributedamongcoal(40%),oil(34%),gas(19%),cement(5.6%)andgasflaring(0.7%).5
Comparedtothepreviousyear,emissionsfromcoaldecreasedby–1.7%,whileemissionsfrom6
oil,gas,andcementincreasedby1.5%,1.5%,and1.0%,respectively.Allgrowthratespresented7
areadjustedforleapyear,unlessstatedotherwise.8
Emissionsin2016were0.2%higherthanin2015,continuingthelowgrowthtrendsobservedin9
2014and2015.ThisgrowthrateisasprojectedinLeQuéréetal.(2016)basedonnational10
emissionsprojectionsforChinaandtheUSA,andprojectionsofgrossdomesticproductcorrected11
forIFFtrendsfortherestoftheworld.Thespecificprojectionfor2016forChinamadelastyearof12
–0.5%(rangeof–3.8%to+1.3%)isveryclosetotherealisedgrowthrateof–0.3%.Similarly,the13
projectedgrowthfortheUSof–1.7%(rangeof–4.0%to+0.6%)isveryclosetotherealised14
growthrateof–2.1%,andtheprojectedgrowthfortherestoftheworld(ROW)of+1.0%(range15
of–0.4%to2.5%)matchestherealisedrateof1.3%.16
In2016,thelargestabsolutecontributionstoglobalCO2emissionswerefromChina(28%),the17
USA(15%),theEU(28memberstates;10%),andIndia(6.7%).Thepercentagesarethefractionof18
theglobalemissionsincludingbunkerfuels(3.1%).Thesefourregionsaccountfor59%ofglobal19
CO2emissions.Growthratesforthesecountriesfrom2015to2016were–0.3%(China),–2.1%20
(USA),–0.3%(EU28),and+4.5%(India).Theper-capitaCO2emissionsin2016were1.1tCperson-121
yr-1fortheglobe,andwere4.5(USA),2.0(China),1.9(EU28)and0.5(India)tCperson-1yr-1forthe22
fourhighestemittingcountries(Fig.5e).23
TerritorialemissionsinAnnexBcountries(developedcountriesaspertheKyotoProtocolwhich24
initiallyhadbindingmitigationtargets)decreasedby–0.2%yr-1onaverageduring1990-2015.25
Trendsobservedforconsumptionemissionswerelessmonotonic,with0.7%yr-1growthover26
1990-2007anda–1.2%yr-1decreaseover2007-2015(Fig.5c).Innon-AnnexBcountries27
(emergingeconomiesandlessdevelopedcountriesaspertheKyotoProtocolwithnobinding28
mitigationcommitments)territorialemissionsgrewat4.6%yr-1during1990-2015,while29
consumptionemissionsgrewat4.5%yr-1.In1990,65%ofglobalterritorialemissionswere30
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emittedinAnnexBcountries(32%innon-AnnexB,and2%inbunkerfuelsusedforinternational1
shippingandaviation),whilein2015thishadreducedto37%(60%innon-AnnexB,and3%in2
bunkerfuels).Forconsumptionemissions,thissplitwas68%in1990and42%in2015(32%to3
58%innon-AnnexB).Thedifferencebetweenterritorialandconsumptionemissions(thenet4
emissiontransferviainternationaltrade)fromnon-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountrieshasincreased5
fromnearzeroin1990to0.3GtCyr-1around2005andremainedrelativelystableafterwardsuntil6
thelastyearavailable(2015;Fig.5).Theincreaseinnetemissiontransfersof0.28GtCyr-17
between1990and2015compareswiththeemissionreductionof0.5GtCyr-1inAnnexB8
countries.Theseresultsshowtheimportanceofnetemissiontransferviainternationaltradefrom9
non-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountries,andthestabilisationofemissionstransferwhenaveragedover10
AnnexBcountriesduringthepastdecade.In2015,thebiggestemittersfromaconsumption11
perspectivewereChina(23%oftheglobaltotal),USA(16%),EU28(12%),andIndia(6%).12
TheglobalCO2emissionsfromland-usechangeareestimatedas1.3±0.5GtCin2016,asforthe13
previousdecadebutwithlowconfidenceintheannualchange.14
3.3.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland 15
ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationwas6.1±0.2GtCin2016(2.89±0.09ppm;Fig.16
4;DlugokenckyandTans,2017).Thisiswellabovethe2007-2016averageof4.7±0.1GtCyr-1and17
reflectsthelargeinterannualvariabilityinthegrowthrateofatmosphericCO2concentration18
associatedwithElNiñoandLaNiñaevents.19
TheestimatedoceanCO2sinkwas2.6±0.5GtCyr-1in2016,onlymarginallyabove2015according20
totheaverageoftheoceanmodelsbutwithlargedifferencesamongestimates(Fig.7).21
TheterrestrialCO2sinkfromthemodelensemblewas2.7±1.0GtCin2016,nearthedecadal22
average(Fig.4)andconsistentwithconstraintsfromtherestofthebudget(Table6).23
Thebudgetimbalancewas–0.3GtCin2016,indicatingasmalloverestimationoftheemissions24
and/orunderestimationofthesinkforthatyear,withlargeuncertainties.25
3.4 Globalcarbonbudgetprojectionforyear201726
3.4.1 CO2emissions 27
Emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)for2017areprojectedtoincreaseby+2.0%(rangeof28
0.8%to+3.0%;Table8;(Jacksonetal.,2017;Petersetal.,2017)).Ourmethodcontainsseveral29
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assumptionsthatcouldinfluencetheestimatebeyondthegivenrange,andassuch,ithasan1
indicativevalueonly.Withinthegivenassumptions,globalemissionswouldincreaseto10.0±0.52
GtC(36.8±1.8GtCO2)in2017.3
ForChina,theexpectedchangebasedonavailabledataasof19September2017(seeSect.2.1.4)4
isforanincreaseinemissionsof+3.5%(rangeof+0.7%to+5.4%)in2017comparedto2016.This5
isbasedonestimatedgrowthincoal(+3%;themainfuelsourceinChina),oil(+5.0%)andnatural6
gas(+11.7%)consumptionandadeclineincementproduction(–0.5%).Theuncertaintyrange7
considersthespreadbetweendifferentdatasources,andvariancesoftypicalrevisionsofChinese8
dataovertime.Theuncertaintyinthegrowthrateofcoalconsumptionalsoreflectsuncertaintyin9
theevolutionofenergydensityandcarboncontentofcoal.10
FortheUSA,theEIAemissionsprojectionfor2017combinedwithcementdatafromUSGSgivesa11
decreaseof–0.4%(rangeof–2.7to+1.9%)comparedto2016.12
ForIndia,ourprojectionfor2017givesanincreaseof+2.0%(rangeof0.2%to+3.8%)over2016.13
Fortherestoftheworld(includingEU28),theexpectedgrowthfor2017is+1.9%(rangeof0.3%14
to+3.4%).ThisiscomputedusingtheGDPprojectionfortheworldexcludingChina,USA,and15
Indiaof3.0%madebytheIMF(IMF,2017)andadecreaseinIFFof–1.1%yr-1whichistheaverage16
from2007-2016.Theuncertaintyrangeisbasedonthestandarddeviationoftheinterannual17
variabilityinIFFduring2007-2016of±1.0%yr-1andourestimateofuncertaintyintheIMF’sGDP18
forecastof±0.5%.ApplyingthemethodtotheEU28individuallywouldgiveaprojectionof–0.2%19
(rangeof–2.0%to+1.6%)forEU28and+2.3%(rangeof+0.5%to+4.0%)fortheremaining20
countries,thoughtheuncertaintiesgrowwiththelevelofdisaggregation.21
Emissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC)for2017areprojectedtoremaininlinewithorslightly22
lowerthantheir2016levelof1.3GtC,basedonactivefiredetectionsbyOctober.23
3.4.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland 24
The2017growthinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)isprojectedtobe5.3GtCwith25
uncertaintyaround±1GtC(2.5±0.5ppm).CombiningprojectedEFF,ELUCandGATMsuggestsa26
combinedlandandoceansink(SLAND+SOCEAN)ofabout6GtCfor2017.Althougheachtermhas27
largeuncertainty,theoceanicsinkSOCEANhasgenerallylowinterannualvariabilityandislikelyto28
remainclosetoits2016valueofaround2.6GtC,leavingaroughestimatedlandsinkSLANDof29
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around3.4GtC,nearitsdecadalaverage(Table6).Thisbehaviourofthesinkisexpecteddueto1
theElNiño-neutralconditionsthatprevailedduring2017,instarkcontrasttothestrongElNiño2
conditionsin2015and2016thatreducedthelandsink.3
3.5 Cumulativesourcesandsinks4
Cumulativehistoricalsourcesandsinkshavebeenrevisedcomparedtothepreviousglobalcarbon5
budgets.Thisversionoftheglobalcarbonbudgetusestwoupdatedbookkeepingmodelsinstead6
ofonebookkeepingmodelonly,usestwooceansinkdata-productsinsteadofonedata-product7
only,andusesmultipleDGVMsforthelandsinkinsteadofderivingthelandsinkfromtheresidual8
oftheotherterms.Asaresultofthesemethodologicalchanges,thecumulativeemissionsand9
theirpartitioningissignificantlylarger(byabout50GtC)thanourpreviousestimates.Thislarge10
differencehighlightstheuncertaintyinreconstructinghistoricalemissionsourcesandsinks,and11
thisisnotedthroughthelargeuncertaintyassociatedwitheachterm.12
Cumulativefossilfuelandindustryemissionsfor1870-2016were420±20GtCforEFFand,with13
therevisedbookkeepingmodels,180±60GtCforELUC(Table9),foratotalof600±65GtC.The14
cumulativeemissionsfromELUCareparticularlyuncertain,withlargespreadamongindividual15
estimatesof135GtC(Houghton)and225GtC(BLUE)forthetwobookkeepingmodelsandarange16
of70to230GtCforthetwelveDGVMs.Theseestimatesareconsistentwithindirectconstraints17
frombiomassobservations(Lietal.,2017),butgiventhelargespreadabestestimateisdifficult18
toascertain.19
Withtherevisedmethodology,emissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere(245±5GtC),20
ocean(145±20GtC),andtheland(185±55GtC).Theuseofnearlyindependentestimatesfor21
theindividualtermsshowsacumulativebudgetimbalanceof20GtCduring1870-2016,which,if22
correct,suggestsemissionsaretoohighbythesameproportionorthelandoroceansinksare23
underestimated.TheimbalanceoriginateslargelyfromthelargeELUCduringthemid1920sand24
themid1960swhichisunmatchedbyagrowthinatmosphericCO2concentrationasrecordedin25
icecores(Fig.3).Theknownlossofadditionalsinkcapacityofabout15GtCduetoreducedforest26
coverhasnotbeenaccountedinourmethodandfurtherexacerbatesthebudgetimbalance27
(Section2.7.3).28
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Cumulativeemissionsthroughtoyear2017increaseto610±65GtC(2235±240GtCO2),with1
about70%contributionfromEFFandabout30%contributionfromELUC.Cumulativeemissionsand2
theirpartitioningfordifferentperiodsareprovidedinTable9.3
Giventhelargerevisionincumulativeemissions,anditspersistentuncertainties,wesuggest4
extremecautionisneededifusingourupdatedcumulativeemissionestimatetodeterminethe5
“remainingcarbonbudget”tostaybelowgiventemperaturelimit(Rogeljetal.,2016).Wesuggest6
estimatingtheremainingcarbonbudgetbyintegratingscenariodatafromthecurrenttimeto7
sometimeinthefutureasproposedrecently(Millaretal.,2017).8
4 Discussion9
Eachyearwhentheglobalcarbonbudgetispublished,eachcomponentforallpreviousyearsis10
updatedtotakeintoaccountcorrectionsthataretheresultoffurtherscrutinyandverificationof11
theunderlyingdataintheprimaryinputdatasets.Theupdateshavegenerallybeenrelatively12
small(Fig.9).Howeverthisyear,weintroducedamajormethodologicalchangetoassessboth13
SOCEANandSLANDdirectlyusingmultipleprocessmodelsconstrainedbyobservations,andtokeep14
trackofthebudgetimbalanceseparately.WealsousemultiplebookkeepingestimatesforELUC.15
Therefore,theupdatecomparedtopreviousyearshasledtomoresubstantialrevisions,16
particularlyconcerningthemeanSOCEAN,thevariabilityofSLAND,andthetrendsinELUC(Fig.9).17
Thebudgetimbalanceprovidesameasureofthelimitationsinobservations,inunderstandingor18
fullrepresentationofprocessesinmodels,and/orintheintegrationofthecarbonbudget19
components.Themeanglobalbudgetimbalanceisclosetozeroandthereisnotrendoverthe20
entiretimeperiod(Fig.4).However,thebudgetimbalancereachesasmuchas±2GtCyr-1in21
individualyears,and±0.6GtCyr-1inindividualdecades(Table7).Suchlargebudgetimbalance22
limitsourabilitytoverifyreportedemissionsandlimitsourconfidenceintheunderlying23
processesregulatingthecarboncyclefeedbackswithclimatechange(Petersetal.,2017).24
Anothersemi-independentwaytoevaluatethecarbonbudgetresultsisprovidedthroughtheuse25
ofatmosphericandoceanicCO2dataindata-products(atmosphericinversionsandpCO2-based26
oceanfluxproducts).Thecomparisonshowsafirst-orderconsistencybetweenpCO2-baseddata-27
productsandprocessmodelsbutwithsubstantialdiscrepancies,particularlyfortheallocationof28
themeansurfacefluxesbetweenthetropicsandtheNorthernhemisphere,andforhighlighting29
underestimateddecadalvariabilityinSOCEAN.Understandingthecausesofthesediscrepanciesand30
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37
furtheranalysisofregionalcarbonbudgetswouldprovideadditionalinformationtoquantifyand1
improveourestimates,ashasbeenshownbytheprojectREgionalCarbonCycleAssessmentand2
Processes(RECCAP;Canadelletal.,2012-2013).3
TohelpimprovetheGlobalCarbonBudgetcomponents,weprovidealistofthemajorknown4
uncertaintiesforeachcomponent,definedasthoseuncertaintiesthathavebeenademonstrated5
effectofatleast0.3GtCyr-1(Table10).WeidentifiedmultiplesourcesofuncertaintiesforELUC,6
includingintheland-coverandland-usechangestatistics,representationofmanagement7
processes,andmethodologies.TherearealsomultiplesourcesofuncertaintiesinSLAND,mostly8
relatedtotheunderstandingandrepresentationofprocesses,andinSOCEAN,particularlyrelatedto9
representingtheeffectsofvariableoceancirculationinmodelsashighlightedbyrecent10
observations.Finally,thequalityoftheenergystatisticsandoftheemissionsfactorsarelargest11
sourcesofuncertaintiesforEFF.TherearenodemonstrateduncertaintiesinGATMlargerthan0.312
GtCyr-1,althoughtheconversionofthegrowthrateintoaglobalannualfluxassuming13
instantaneousmixingthroughouttheatmosphereintroducesadditionalerrorsthathavenotyet14
beenquantified.Multipleothersourcesofuncertaintieshavebeenidentified(i.e.incement15
emissions)thatcouldadduptosignificantcontributionsbutareunlikelytobethemainsourcesof16
thebudgetimbalance.17
Therearemanymoreuncertaintiesaffectingtheannualestimatescomparedtothemeanand18
trend,someofwhichcouldbeimprovedwithbetterdata.Ofthevarioustermsintheglobal19
budget,onlytheemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryandthegrowthrateinatmosphericCO220
concentrationarebasedprimarilyonempiricalinputssupportingannualestimatesinthiscarbon21
budget.pCO2-basedfluxproductsfortheoceanCO2sinkprovidenewwaystoevaluatethemodel22
results,buttherearestilllargediscrepanciesamongestimates.Giventhegrowingrelianceon23
processmodelsandpCO2-basedfluxproductsinourGlobalCarbonBudget,itiscriticalthatdata-24
basedmetricsaredevelopedandusedtoinformtheselectionofmodelsandtheimprovementof25
theirprocessrepresentationinthelongterm.26
5 Dataavailability27
Thedatapresentedherearemadeavailableinthebeliefthattheirwidedisseminationwillleadto28
greaterunderstandingandnewscientificinsightsofhowthecarboncycleworks,howhumansare29
alteringit,andhowwecanmitigatetheresultinghuman-drivenclimatechange.Thefree30
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38
availabilityofthesedatadoesnotconstitutepermissionforpublicationofthedata.Forresearch1
projects,ifthedataareessentialtothework,orifanimportantresultorconclusiondependson2
thedata,co-authorshipmayneedtobeconsidered.Fullcontactdetailsandinformationonhow3
tocitethedataaregivenatthetopofeachpageintheaccompanyingdatabase,andsummarised4
inTable2.5
TheaccompanyingdatabaseincludestwoExcelfilesorganisedinthefollowingspreadsheets6
(accessiblewiththefreeviewerhttp://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=10):7
FileGlobal_Carbon_Budget_2017v1.0.xlsxincludesthefollowing:8
1. Summary9
2. Theglobalcarbonbudget(1959-2016);10
3. GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandcementproductionbyfueltype,andtheper-capita11
emissions(1959-2016);12
4. CO2emissionsfromland-usechangefromtheindividualmethodsandmodels(1959-2016);13
5. OceanCO2sinkfromtheindividualoceanmodelsandpCO2-basedproducts(1959-2016);14
6. TerrestrialCO2sinkfromtheDGVMs(1959-2016);15
7. Additionalinformationonthecarbonbalancepriorto1959(1750-2016).16
FileNational_Carbon_Emissions_2017v1.0.xlsxincludesthefollowing:17
1. Summary18
2. TerritorialcountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(1959-2016)fromCDIAC,19
extendedto2016usingBPdata;20
3. TerritorialcountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(1959-2016)fromCDIACwith21
UNFCCCdataoverwrittenwhereavailable,extendedto2016usingBPdata;22
4. ConsumptioncountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryandemissionstransfer23
fromtheinternationaltradeofgoodsandservices(1990-2015)usingCDIAC/UNFCCCdata24
(worksheet3above)asreference;25
5. Emissionstransfers(Consumptionminusterritorialemissions;1990-2015);26
6. Countrydefinitions;27
7. Detailsofdisaggregatedcountries;28
8. Detailsofaggregatedcountries.29
NationalemissionsdataarealsoavailablefromtheGlobalCarbonAtlas(globalcarbonatlas.org).30
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6 Conclusions1
TheestimationofglobalCO2emissionsandsinksisamajoreffortbythecarboncycleresearch2
communitythatrequiresacombinationofmeasurementsandcompilationofstatisticalestimates3
andresultsfrommodels.Thedeliveryofanannualcarbonbudgetservestwopurposes.First,4
thereisalargedemandforup-to-dateinformationonthestateoftheanthropogenicperturbation5
oftheclimatesystemanditsunderpinningcauses.Abroadstakeholdercommunityreliesonthe6
datasetsassociatedwiththeannualcarbonbudgetincludingscientists,policymakers,businesses,7
journalists,andthebroadersocietyincreasinglyengagedinadaptingtoandmitigatinghuman-8
drivenclimatechange.Second,overthelastdecadewehaveseenunprecedentedchangesinthe9
humanandbiophysicalenvironments(e.g.changesinthegrowthoffossilfuelemissions,ocean10
temperatures,andstrengthofthesink),whichcallformorefrequentassessmentsofthestateof11
theplanet,andbyimplication,abetterunderstandingofthefutureevolutionofthecarboncycle.12
Boththeoceanandthelandsurfacepresentlyremovealargefractionofanthropogenic13
emissions.Anysignificantchangeinthefunctionofcarbonsinksisofgreatimportancetoclimate14
policymaking,astheyaffecttheexcessCO2remainingintheatmosphereandthereforethe15
compatibleemissionsforanyclimatestabilisationtarget.Betterconstraintsofcarboncycle16
modelsagainstcontemporarydatasetsraisethecapacityforthemodelstobecomemore17
accurateatfutureprojections.Thisallrequiresmorefrequent,robust,andtransparentdatasets18
andmethodsthatcanbescrutinizedandreplicated.Thispapervia‘livingdata’willhelptokeep19
trackofnewbudgetupdates.20
Acknowledgments.Wethankallpeopleandinstitutionswhoprovidedthedatausedinthis21
carbonbudget;C.Enright,W.Peters,andS.Shufortheirinvolvementinthedevelopment,use22
andanalysisofthemodelsanddata-productsusedhere;F.Joos,S.KhatiwalaandT.DeVriesfor23
providinghistoricaldata;andA.Kirkfortechnicalsupport.WethankE.Dlugokenckywhoprovided24
theatmosphericCO2measurementsusedhere;C.Landa,C.BernardandS.JonesoftheBjerknes25
ClimateDataCentreandtheICOSOceanThematicCentredatamanagementattheUniversityof26
Bergen,whohelpedwithgatheringinformationfromtheSOCATcommunity,andallthose27
involvedincollectingandprovidingoceanographicCO2measurementsusedhere,inparticularfor28
thenewoceandataforyear2016(seeTableA2).ThisisNOAA-PMELcontributionnumber4728.29
Wethanktheinstitutionsandfundingagenciesresponsibleforthecollectionandqualitycontrol30
ofthedataincludedinSOCAT,andthesupportoftheInternationalOceanCarbonCoordination31
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40
Project(IOCCP),theSurfaceOceanLowerAtmosphereStudy(SOLAS),andtheIntegratedMarine1
Biogeochemistry,EcosystemResearch(IMBER)programme.Long-termsupportfortheCRUTS2
datasetiscurrentlyprovidedbytheUKNationalCentreforAtmosphericScience(NCAS),aNERC3
collaborativecentre.4
Finally,wethankallfunderswhohavesupportedtheindividualandjointcontributionstothis5
work(seeAppendixTableA1),aswellasM.Heimann,H.Dolman,andthemanyresearcherswho6
haveprovidedfeedbackduringtheGCPcommunityconsultationheldatthe10thInternationalCO27
ConferenceinInterlaken,Switzerland.8
9
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41
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45
Tables6
Table1.Factorsusedtoconvertcarboninvariousunits(byconvention,Unit1=Unit2.7conversion).8
Unit1 Unit2 Conversion Source
GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) ppm(partspermillion)a 2.12b Ballantyneetal.(2012)
GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) PgC(petagramsofcarbon) 1 SIunitconversion
GtCO2(gigatonnesofcarbondioxide) GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) 3.664 44.01/12.011inmassequivalent
GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) MtC(megatonnesofcarbon) 1000 SIunitconversionaMeasurementsofatmosphericCO2concentrationhaveunitsofdry-airmolefraction.‘ppm’isan9abbreviationformicromole/mol,dryair.10bTheuseofafactorof2.12assumesthatalltheatmosphereiswellmixedwithinoneyear.Inreality,only11thetroposphereiswellmixedandthegrowthrateofCO2concentrationinthelesswell-mixedstratosphere12isnotmeasuredbysitesfromtheNOAAnetwork.Usingafactorof2.12makestheapproximationthatthe13growthrateofCO2concentrationinthestratosphereequalsthatofthetroposphereonayearlybasis.14 15
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Table2.Howtocitetheindividualcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedhere.1
Component Primaryreference
Globalemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),
totalandbyfueltype
Bodenetal.,(2017)
Nationalterritorialemissionsfromfossilfuelsand
industry(EFF)
CDIACsource:Bodenetal.,(2017)
UNFCCC(2017)
Nationalconsumption-basedemissionsfromfossilfuels
andindustry(EFF)bycountry(consumption)
Petersetal.(2011b)updatedasdescribedinthispaper
Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC) averagefromHoughtonandNassikas(2017)andHansiset
al.,(2015),bothupdatedasdescribedinthispaper
GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM) DlugokenckyandTans(2017)
OceanandlandCO2sinks(SOCEANandSLAND) ThispaperforSOCEANandSLANDandreferencesinTable5
forindividualmodels.
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Table3.Mainmethodologicalchangesintheglobalcarbonbudgetsincefirstpublication.Unlessspecifiedbelow,themethodologywasidenticaltothat1describedinthecurrentpaper.Furthermore,methodologicalchangesintroducedinoneyeararekeptforthefollowingyearsunlessnoted.Emptycellsmean2therewerenomethodologicalchangesintroducedthatyear.3
Publicationyeara Fossilfuelemissions LUCemissions Reservoirs Uncertainty&otherchangesGlobal Country(territorial) Country(consumption) Atmosphere Ocean Land
2006Raupachetal.(2007)
Splitinregions
2007Canadelletal.(2007)
ELUCbasedonFAO-FRA2005;constantELUCfor2006
1959-1979datafromMaunaLoa;
dataafter1980fromglobalaverage
Basedononeoceanmodeltunedto
reproducedobserved1990ssink
±1σprovidedforallcomponents
2008(online) ConstantELUCfor2007 2009LeQuéréetal.(2009)
SplitbetweenAnnexBandnon-AnnexB
Resultsfromanindependentstudy
discussed
Fire-basedemissionanomaliesusedfor2006-
2008
Basedonfouroceanmodelsnormalisedtoobservationswithconstantdelta
FirstuseoffiveDGVMstocomparewithbudget
residual
2010Friedlingsteinetal.(2010)
ProjectionforcurrentyearbasedonGDP
Emissionsfortopemitters
ELUCupdatedwithFAO-FRA2010
2011
Petersetal.(2012b) SplitbetweenAnnexB
andnon-AnnexB
2012LeQuéréetal.(2013)Petersetal.(2013)
129countriesfrom1959
129countriesandregionsfrom1990-2010basedon
GTAP8.0
ELUCfor1997-2011includesinterannualanomaliesfrom
fire-basedemissions
Allyearsfromglobalaverage
Basedon5oceanmodelsnormalisedto
observationswithratio
TenDGVMsavailableforSLAND;Firstuseoffour
modelstocomparewithELUC
2013LeQuéréetal.(2014)
250countriesb 134countriesandregions1990-2011basedon
GTAP8.1,withdetailedestimatesforyears1997,2001,2004,and2007
ELUCfor2012estimatedfrom2001-2010average
Basedonsixmodelscomparedwithtwodata-productstoyear2011
CoordinatedDGVMexperimentsforSLANDand
ELUC
Confidencelevels;cumulativeemissions;budgetfrom1750
2014LeQuéréetal.(2015b)
ThreeyearsofBPdata
ThreeyearsofBPdata
Extendedto2012withupdatedGDPdata
ELUCfor1997-2013includesinterannualanomaliesfrom
fire-basedemissions
Basedonsevenmodels Basedontenmodels Inclusionofbreakdownofthesinksinthreelatitudebandsandcomparisonwith
threeatmosphericinversions
2015LeQuéréetal.(2015a)Jacksonetal.(2016)
ProjectionforcurrentyearbasedJan-Augdata
NationalemissionsfromUNFCCC
extendedto2014alsoprovided
Detailedestimatesintroducedfor2011basedonGTAP9
Basedoneightmodels Basedontenmodelswithassessmentofminimum
realism
ThedecadaluncertaintyfortheDGVMensemblemeannowuses±1σofthedecadal
spreadacrossmodels2016LeQuéréetal.(2016)
TwoyearsofBPdata
Addedthreesmallcountries;CHN
emissionsfrom1990fromBPdata(this
releaseonly)
PreliminaryELUCusingFRA-2015shownforcomparison;
useoffiveDGVMs
Basedonsevenmodels Basedonfourteenmodels
Discussionofprojectionforfullbudgetforcurrentyear
2017(thisstudy) Projectionincludes
India-specificdata
Averageoftwobookkeepingmodels;useof
twelveDGVMs
Basedoneightmodelsthatmatchtheobservedsinkforthe1990s;nolongernormalised
Basedonfifteenmodelsthatmeetthreecriteria
(seeSect.2.5)
Landmulti-modelaveragenowusedinmaincarbonbudget,withthecarbonimbalancepresented
separately;newtableofkey
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uncertaintiesaThenamingconventionofthebudgetshaschanged.Uptoandincluding2010,thebudgetyear(CarbonBudget2010)representedthelatestyearofthedata.From2012,1thebudgetyear(CarbonBudget2012)referstotheinitialpublicationyear.2bTheCDIACdatabasehasabout250countries,butweshowdatafor219countriessinceweaggregateanddisaggregatesomecountriestobeconsistentwithcurrent3countrydefinitions(seeSect.2.1.1formoredetails).4
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Table4a.Comparisonoftheprocessesincluded(Y)ornot(N)inthebookkeepingandDynamic1GlobalVegetationModelsfortheirestimatesofELUCandSLAND.SeeTable5formodelreferences.2Allmodelsincludedeforestationandforestregrowthafterabandonmentofagriculture(orfrom3afforestationactivitiesonagriculturalland).4
bookkeepingmodels
DGVMs
H&N2
007
BLUE
CABLE
CLAS
S-CT
EM
CLM4.5(BG
C)
DLEM
ISAM
JSBA
CHj
JULES
LPJ-G
UESS
j
LPJ
LPX-Be
rn
OCN
ORC
HIDE
E
Orchide
e-MICT
SDGV
M
VISITj
ProcessesrelevantforELUC
Woodharvestandforestdegradationa Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N Nd Y Y N N
Shiftingcultivation/subgridscaletransitions Nb Y Y N Y N N N N Nd N N N N
Croplandharvest Yi Yi N L N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y
Peatfires Y Y N N Y N N N N N N N N N
Fireasamanagementtool Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N
Nfertilization Yi Yi N N N Y Y N N Y Y N N N
Tillage Yi Yi N Yf N N N N N N N Yh Yh N
Irrigation Yi Yi N N N Y Y N N N N N N N
Wetlanddrainage Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N
Erosion Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N SouthEastAsiapeatdrainage Y Y N N N N N N N N N N N N
Grazingandmowingharvest Yi Yi N N N N Y N Y N N N N N
ProcessesrelevantalsoforSLAND
Firesimulation USonly N N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y YClimateandvariability N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
CO2fertilisation Ng Ng Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YCarbon-nitrogeninteractions,includingNdeposition
Ni Ni Y Ne Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y Ne N Yc N
aReferstotheroutineharvestofestablishedmanagedforestsratherthanpoolsofharvestedproducts.5bNoback-andforth-transitionsbetweenvegetationtypesatthecountry-level,butifforestlossbasedonFRA6exceededagriculturalexpansionbasedonFAO,thenthisamountofarea7cLimited.NitrogenuptakeissimulatedasafunctionofsoilC,andVcmaxisanempiricalfunctionofcanopyN.Does8notconsiderNdeposition.9dAvailablebutnotactiveforcomparabilitybetweenthetwoLUforcings.10eAlthoughC-Ncycleinteractionsarenotrepresented,themodelincludesaparameterizationofdown-reguationof11photosynthesisasCO2increasestoemulatenutrientconstraints(Aroraetal.,2009)12fTillageisrepresentedovercroplandsbyincreasedsoilcarbondecompositionrateandreducedhumificationoflitter13tosoilcarbon.14gBookkeepingmodelsincludeeffectofCO2-fertilizationascapturedbyobservedcarbondensities,butnotasaneffect15transientintime.16h20%reductionofactiveSOCpoolturnovertimeforC3cropand40%reductionforC4crops17iProcesscapturedimplicitlybyuseofobservedcarbondensities.18jThreeDGVMswereexcludedfromtheELUCestimateduetoaninitialpeakofELUCemissionscausedbyacoldstartof19shiftingcultivationin1860.2021
22
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Table4b.ComparisonoftheprocessesincludedintheGlobalOceanBiogeochemistryModelsfor1theirestimatesofSOCEAN.SeeTable5formodelreferences.23
CCSM
-BEC
CSIRO
NorESM
-OC
MITgcm-
REcoM2
MPIOM-
HAMOCC
NEMO-PISCE
S(CNR
M)
NEMO-PISCE
S(IP
SL)
NEMO-
Plan
kTOM5
Atmosphericforcing NCEP JRA55
CORE-I(spinup)/NCEPwithCORE-IIcorrections
JRA55 ERA-20C NCEP NCEP NCEP
Initialisationofcarbonchemistry GLODAP GLODAP+spin
up1000+years
GLODAPv1+spinup1000
years
GLODAP,thenspin-up116
years(2cyclesJRA55)
frompreviousmodelruns
with>1000yrsspinup
spinup3000yearsoffline+300yearsonline
GLODAPfrom1948onwards
GLODAP+spinup30years
Physicaloceanmodel
POPVersion1.4.3 MOM5 MICOM MITgcm65n MPIOM NEMOv2.4-
ORCA1L42NEMOv3.2-ORCA2L31
NEMOv2.3-ORCA2
Resolution 3.6olon,0.8to1.8olat
1ox1owithenhanced
resolutionatthetropicsand
highlatS.Ocean;50levels
1°lon,0.17to0.25lat;51isopycnic
layers+2bulkmixedlayer
2°lon,0.38-2°lat,30levels
1.5o;
40levels
2°lon,0.3to1°lat
42levels,5matsurface
2olon,0.3to1.5olat;31
levels
2olon,0.3to1.5olat;31
levels
4
5
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Table4c.Comparisonoftheinversionsetupandinputfieldsfortheatmosphericinversions.See1Table5forreferences.2
3
a(CarbontrackerTeam,2017;GLOBALVIEW,2016)4b(vanderVeldeetal.,2014)5 6
CarbonTrackerEurope(CTE)
JenaCarboScope CAMS
Versionnumber CTE2017-FT s85oc_v4.1s v16r1
Observations
Atmosphericobservations
Hourlyresolution(well-mixed
conditions)OBSPACKGLOBALVIEWplusv2.1
&NRTv3.3a
Flasksandhourly(outliersremovedby2-
sigmacriterion)
Dailyaveragesofwell-mixedconditions-OBSPACK
GLOBALVIEWplusv2.1a&NRTv3.2.3,WDCGG,RAMCESand
ICOSATC
Priorfluxes
Biosphereandfires
SiBCASA-GFED4sb Zero ORCHIDEE(climatological),GFEDv4&GFAS
Ocean OceaninversionbyJacobsonetal.(2007)
pCO2-basedoceanfluxproductoc_v1.5(updateofRödenbecketal.,
2014)
Landschützeretal.(2015)
Fossilfuels EDGAR+IER,scaledtoCDIAC
CDIAC(extendedafter2013withGCPtotals)
EDGARscaledtoCDIAC
Transportandoptimization
Transportmodel
TM5 TM3 LMDZv5A
Weatherforcing
ECMWF NCEP ECMWF
Resolution(degrees)
Global:3°x2°,Europe:1°x1°,NorthAmerica:
1°x1°
Global:4°x5° Global:3.75°x1.875°
Optimization EnsembleKalmanfilter Conjugategradient(re-ortho-normalization)
Variational
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Table5.Referencesfortheprocessmodels,pCO2-basedoceanfluxproducts,andatmospheric1inversionsincludedinFigs.6-8.Allmodelsandproductsareupdatedwithnewdatatoendofyear22016.3
Model/dataname Reference ChangefromLeQuéréetal.(2016)
Bookkeepingmodelsforland-usechangeemissions
BLUE Hansisetal.(2015) Notapplicable(notusedinpreviouscarbonbudgets)
H&N HoughtonandNassikas(2017)
updatedfromHoughtonetal.(2012);keydifferencesincludeRevisedland-usechangedatatoFAO2015,revisedvegetationcarbondensities,IndonesianandMalaysianpeatburninganddrainageadded,removalofshiftingcultivation
Dynamicglobalvegetationmodels
CABLE Haverdetal.,(2017)OptimisationofplantinvestmentinRubisco-vselectrontransport-limitedphotosynthesis;temperature-dependentonsetofspringrecoveryinevergreenneedle-leaves
CLASS-CTEM MeltonandArora(2016)Asoilcolourindexisnowusedtodeterminesoilalbedoasopposedtosoiltexture.Soilalbedostillgetsmodulatedbyotherfactorsincludingsoilmoisture.
CLM4.5(BGC) Olesonetal.(2013) Nochange
DLEM Tianetal.(2015) Considerationoftheexpansionofcroplandandpasture,comparedwithnopastureexpansioninpreviousversion.
ISAM Jainetal.(2013) Nochange
JSBACH Reicketal.(2013)aAdaptedthepre-processingoftheLUHdata;scalingcropandpasturestatesandtransitionswiththedesertfractionsinjsbachinordertomaintainasmuchoftheprescribedagriculturalareasaspossible.
JULESb Clarkeetal.(2011)c NoChange
LPJ-GUESS Smithetal.(2014)d
LUH2withlanduseaggregatedtoLPJ-GUESSlandcoverinputs,shiftingcultivationbasedonLUH2grosstransitionsmatrix,andwoodharvestbasedonLUH2areafractionsofwoodharvest;αareductionby15%
LPJe Sitchetal.(2003)f Nochange
LPX-Bern Kelleretal.,(2017) Updatedmodelparametervalues(Kelleret.al.2017)duetoassimilationofobservationaldata.
OCN ZaehleandFriend(2010)g usesr293,includingminorbugfixes;useoftheCMIP6Ndepositiondataset(Hegglinetal.inprep)
ORCHIDEE Krinneretal.(2005)h improvedwaterstress,newsoilalbedo,improvedsnowscheme
ORCHIDEE-MICT Guimberteauetal.(2017)newversionofORCHIDEEincludingfires,permafrostregionscouplingbetweensoilthermicsandcarbondynamics,managedgrasslands
SDGVM Woodwardetal(1995)i UsesKattgeetal.(2009)Vcmax~leafNrelationships(withoxisolrelationshipforevergreenbroadleaves)
VISIT Katoetal.(2013)jLUH2isappliedforland-use,woodharvest,andland-usechange.SensitivityofsoildecompositionparametersfromLloydandTaylor(1994)aremodified.
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Globaloceanbiogeochemistrymodels
CCSM-BEC Doneyetal.(2009) ChangeinatmosphericCO2concentrationk
CSIRO Lawetal.(2017) PhysicalmodelchangefromMOM4toMOM5andatmosphericforcingfromJRA-55
MITgcm-REcoM2 Haucketal.(2016) 1%ironsolubilityandatmosphericforcingfromJRA-55
MPIOM-HAMOCCl Ilyinaetal.(2013) CyanobacteriaaddedtoHAMOCC(Paulsenetal.,2017)
NEMO-PISCES(CNRM) Séférianetal.(2013) Nochange
NEMO-PISCES(IPSL) AumontandBopp(2006) Nochange
NEMO-PlankTOM5 Buitenhuisetal.(2010)m Nochange
NorESM-OC Schwingeretal.(2016) Nochange
pCO2-basedfluxoceanproducts
Landschützer Landschützeretal.(2016) Nochange
JenaCarboScope Rödenbecketal.(2014) Updatedtoversionoc_1.5
Atmosphericinversions
CarbonTrackerEurope(CTE)
vanderLaan-Luijkxetal.(2017)
Minorchangesintheinversionsetup
JenaCarboScope Rödenbecketal.(2003) Priorfluxes,outlierremoval,changesinatmosphericobservationsstationsuite
CAMSn Chevallieretal.(2005) Changefromhalf-hourlyobservationstodailyaveragesofwell-mixedconditions
aSeealsoGolletal.(2015).1bJointUKLandEnvironmentSimulator.2cSeealsoBestetal.(2011).3dToaccountforthedifferencesbetweenthederivationofSWRADfromCRUcloudinessandSWRADfromCRU-NCEP,4thephotosythesisscalingparameterαawasmodified(-15%)toyieldsimilarresults.5eLund-Potsdam-Jena.6fComparedtopublishedversion,decreasedLPJwoodharvestefficiencysothat50%ofbiomasswasremovedoff-site7comparedto85%usedinthe2012budget.Residuemanagementofmanagedgrasslandsincreasedsothat100%of8harvestedgrassentersthelitterpool.9gSeealsoZaehleetal.(2011).10hComparedtopublishedversion,revisedparametersvaluesforphotosyntheticcapacityforborealforests(following11assimilationofFLUXNETdata),updatedparametersvaluesforstemallocation,maintenancerespirationandbiomass12exportfortropicalforests(basedonliterature)and,CO2down-regulationprocessaddedtophotosynthesis.13iSeealsoWoodward&Lomas(2004)andWalkeretal.(2017).Changesfrompublicationsincludesub-dailylight14downscalingforcalculationofphotosynthesisandotheradjustment.15jSeealsoItoandInatomi(2012).16kPrevioussimulationsusedatmosphericCO2concentrationfromtheIPCCIS92ascenario.Thishasbeenre-runusing17observedatmosphericCO2concentrationconsistentwiththeprotocolusedhere.18lLastincludedinLeQuéréetal.(2015)19mWithnonutrientrestoringbelowthemixedlayerdepth.20nSeealsoSupplementaryMaterial(Chevallier,2015;Hourdinetal.,2006).212223
24
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Table6.ComparisonofresultsfromthebookkeepingmethodandbudgetresidualswithresultsfromtheDGVMsandinverseestimatesfor1differentperiods,lastdecadeandlastyearavailable.AllvaluesareinGtCyr-1.TheDGVMuncertaintiesrepresent±1σofthedecadalorannual2(for2016only)estimatesfromtheindividualDGVMs,fortheinversemodelsallthreeresultsaregivenwhereavailable.34
Mean(GtCyr-1)
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2007-2016 2016
Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC)
Bookkeepingmethods 1.4±0.7 1.1±0.7 1.2±0.7 1.3±0.7 1.2±0.7 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.7
DGVMs 1.3±0.5 1.2±0.5 1.2±0.4 1.2±0.3 1.2±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.4±0.8
Terrestrialsink(SLAND)
Residualsinkfromglobalbudget(EFF-ELUC-GATM-SOCEAN)
1.8±0.9 1.8±0.9 1.5±0.9 2.6±0.9 3.0±0.9 3.6±1.0 2.4±1.0
DGVMsa 1.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.5 2.9±0.8 3.0±0.8 2.7±1.0
Totallandfluxes(SLAND–ELUC)
Budgetconstraint(EFF-GATM-SOCEAN)
0.4±0.5 0.7±0.6 0.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.3±0.7 1.1±0.7
DGVMs 0.1±0.9 1.2±0.8 0.7±0.7 1.2±0.5 1.7±0.8 1.7±0.7 1.3±1.0
Inversions(CTE/JenaCarboScope/CAMS)*
—/—/— —/—/— —/—/0.2 —/0.6/1.3 1.4/1.1/1.9 1.8/1.4/2.3 0.0/0.0/2.2
*Estimatesarecorrectedforthepreindustrialinfluenceofriverfluxes(Sect.2.7.2).SeeTables4c&5forreferences.5
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Table7.DecadalmeaninthefivecomponentsoftheanthropogenicCO2budgetfordifferentperiods,andlastyearavailable.Allvaluesarein1GtCyr-1,anduncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.UnlikepreviousversionsoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,theterrestrialsink(SLAND)isnow2estimatedindependentlyfromthemeanofDGVMmodels.Thereforethetablealsoshowsthebudgetimbalance(BIM),whichprovidesa3measureofthediscrepanciesamongthenearlyindependentestimatesandhasanuncertaintyexceeding±1GtCyr-1.Apositiveimbalance4meanstheemissionsareoverestimatedand/orthesinksaretoosmall.5 Mean(GtCyr-1)
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2007-2016 2016
Emissions
Fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF) 3.1±0.2 4.7±0.2 5.5±0.3 6.3±0.3 7.8±0.4 9.4±0.5 9.9±0.5
Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC) 1.4±0.7 1.1±0.7 1.2±0.7 1.3±0.7 1.2±0.7 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.7
Partitioning
GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2
concentration(GATM)
1.7±0.1 2.8±0.1 3.4±0.1 3.1±0.1 4.0±0.1 4.7±0.1 6.1±0.2
Oceansink(SOCEAN) 1.0±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.4±0.5 2.6±0.5
Terrestrialsink(SLAND) 1.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.5 2.9±0.8 3.0±0.8 2.7±1.0
Budgetimbalance
BIM=EFF+ELUC-(GATM+SOCEAN+SLAND) (0.4) (–0.6) (–0.4) (0.1) (0.0) (0.6) (–0.3)
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Table8.Comparisonoftheprojectionwithrealisedemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF).1The‘Actual’valuesarefirstestimateavailableusingactualdata,andthe‘Projected’valuesrefers2toestimatemadebeforetheendoftheyearforeachpublication.Projectionsbasedonadifferent3methodfromthatdescribedhereduring2008-2014areavailableinLeQuéréetal.,(2016).All4valuesareadjustedforleapyears.56
World China USA India RestofWorld
Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual
2015a–0.6%
(–1.6to0.5)0.06%
–3.9%(–4.6to–1.1)
–0.7%–1.5%
(–5.5to0.3)–2.5% – –
1.2%(–0.2to2.6)
0.7%
2016b–0.2%
(–1.0to+1.8)+0.18%
–0.5%(–3.8to+1.3)
–0.3%–1.7%
(–4.0to+0.6)–2.1% – –
+1.0%(–0.4to+2.5)
0.6%
2017c+2.0%
(+0.8to+3.0)–
+3.5(+0.7to+5.4)
––0.4%
(–2.7to+1.0)–
+2.0%(+0.2to+3.8)
–+1.9%
(0.3to+3.4)–
aJacksonetal.(2016)andLeQuéréetal.(2015a).bLeQuéréetal.,(2016).cThisstudy.7 8
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1
Table9.CumulativeCO2emissionsfordifferenttimeperiodsingigatonnesofcarbon(GtC).All2uncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.ELUCandSOCEANhavebeenrevisedtoincorporatemultiple3estimates(Section3.5),andunlikepreviousversionsoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,theterrestrial4sink(SLAND)isnowestimatedindependentlyfromthemeanoftheDGVM.Thereforethetable5alsoshowsthebudgetimbalance,whichprovidesameasureofthediscrepanciesamongthe6nearlyindependentestimates.Itsuncertaintyexceeds±60GtC.Themethodusedheredoesnot7capturethelossofadditionalsinkcapacityfromreducedforestcover,whichisabout15GtCand8wouldexacerbatethebudgetimbalance(seeSection2.7.3).Allvaluesareroundedtothe9nearest5GtCandthereforecolumnsdonotnecessarilyaddtozero.10
UnitsofGtC 1750-2016 1850-2005 1959-2016 1870-2016 1870-2017a
Emissions
Fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF) 420±20 320±15 345±15 420±20 430±20
Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC) 225±75 180±60 75±40 180±60 180±60
Totalemissions 645±80 500±60 415±45 600±65 610±65
Partitioning
GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)
b270±5 200±5 185±5 245±5 250±5
Oceansink(SOCEAN) 160±20 145±20 95±20 145±20 150±20
Terrestrialsink(SLAND)c 205±55 155±45 135±35 190±45 190±55
Budgetimbalance
BIM=EFF+ELUC-(GATM+SOCEAN+SLAND) (15) (0) (0) (20) (20)
aUsingprojectionsforyear2017(Sect.3.3).11bAsmallchangewasintroducedfromLeQuéréetal.(2016)tobeconsistentwiththeannualanalysis,wherebythe12growthinatmosphericCO2concentrationiscalculatedfromthedifferencebetweenconcentrationsattheendofthe13year(deseasonalised),ratherthanaveragedovertheyear.14cAssumingSLANDincreasesproportionallytoGATMpriorto1860whentheDGVMestimatesstart.15 16
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Table10.MajorknownsourcesofuncertaintiesineachcomponentoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,1definedasinputdataorprocessesthathaveademonstratedeffectofatleast0.3GtCyr-1.23
Sourceofuncertainty Timescale(years) Location Status Evidence
Emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF;Section2.1)
energystatistics annualtodecadal mainlyChina seeSect.2.1 (Korsbakkenetal.,2016)
carboncontentofcoal decadal mainlyChina seeSect.2.1 (Liuetal.,2015)
Emissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC;section2.2)
land-coverandland-usechangestatistics
continuous global seeSect.2.2 (Houghtonetal.,2012)
sub-grid-scaletransitions annualtodecadalglobal;inparticular
tropicsseeTable5 (Wilkenskjeldetal.,2014)
vegetationbiomass annualtodecadalglobal;inparticular
tropicsseeTable5 (Houghtonetal.,2012)
woodandcropharvest annualtodecadal global seeTable5 (Arnethetal.,2017)
peatburninga multi-decadaltrend global;SEAsia seeTable5 (vanderWerfetal.,2010)
lossofadditionalsinkcapacity
multi-decadaltrend globalnotincluded;Section2.7.3
(GitzandCiais,2003)
Atmosphericgrowthrate(GATM)ànodemonstrateduncertaintieslargerthan±0.3GtCyr-1,b
Oceansink(SOCEAN)
variabilityinoceaniccirculationc
semi-decadaltodecadal
global;inparticularSouthernOcean
seeSect.2.4.2 (DeVriesetal.,2017)
anthropogenicchangesinnutrientsupply
multi-decadaltrend global notincluded (Duceetal.,2008)
Landsink(SLAND)
strengthofCO2fertilisation multi-decadaltrend global seeSect.2.5 (Wenzeletal.,2016)
responsetovariabilityintemperatureandrainfall
annualtodecadalglobal;inparticular
tropicsseeSect.2.5 (Coxetal.,2013)
nutrientlimitationandsupply
multi-decadaltrend global seeSect.2.5 (Zaehleetal.,2011)
responsetodiffuseradiation
annual global seeSect.2.5 (Mercadoetal.,2009)
aAsresultofinteractionsbetweenland-useandclimate4bTheuncertaintiesinGATMhavebeenestimatedas±0.2GtCyr-1,althoughtheconversionofthegrowthrateintoa5globalannualfluxassuminginstantaneousmixingthroughouttheatmosphereintroducesadditionalerrorsthathave6notyetbeenquantified.7cCouldinpartbeduetouncertaintiesinatmosphericforcing(Swartetal.,2014) 8
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FigureCaptions1
2
Figure1.SurfaceaverageatmosphericCO2concentration,deseasonalised(ppm).The1980-20173
monthlydataarefromNOAA/ESRL(DlugokenckyandTans,2017)andarebasedonanaverageof4
directatmosphericCO2measurementsfrommultiplestationsinthemarineboundarylayer5
(MasarieandTans,1995).The1958-1979monthlydataarefromtheScrippsInstitutionof6
Oceanography,basedonanaverageofdirectatmosphericCO2measurementsfromtheMauna7
LoaandSouthPolestations(Keelingetal.,1976).TotakeintoaccountthedifferenceofmeanCO28
betweentheNOAA/ESRLandtheScrippsstationnetworksusedhere,theScrippssurfaceaverage9
(fromtwostations)washarmonisedtomatchtheNOAA/ESRLsurfaceaverage(frommultiple10
stations)byaddingthemeandifferenceof0.542ppm,calculatedherefromoverlappingdata11
during1980-2012.Themeanseasonalcycleisalsoshownfrom1980(inpink).12
13
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
Time (yr)
Atm
osph
eric
CO2 c
once
ntra
tion
(ppm
)
Seasonally corrected trend:
Monthly mean:
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Keeling et al., 1976)NOAA/ESRL (Dlugokencky & Tans, 2017)
NOAA/ESRL
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1
Figure2.Schematicrepresentationoftheoverallperturbationoftheglobalcarboncyclecaused2
byanthropogenicactivities,averagedgloballyforthedecade2007-2016.Thearrowsrepresent3
emissionfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF);emissionsfromdeforestationandotherland-use4
change(ELUC);thegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)andtheuptakeofcarbon5
bythe‘sinks’intheocean(SOCEAN)andland(SLAND)reservoirs.Thebudgetimbalance(BIM)isalso6
shown.AllfluxesareinunitsofGtCyr-1,withuncertaintiesreportedas±1σ(68%confidencethat7
therealvaluelieswithinthegiveninterval)asdescribedinthetext.Thisfigureisanupdateofone8
preparedbytheInternationalGeosphereBiosphereProgrammefortheGCP,usingdiagrams9
createdwithsymbolsfromtheIntegrationandApplicationNetwork,UniversityofMaryland10
CenterforEnvironmentalScience(ian.umces.edu/symbols/),firstpresentedinLeQuéré(2009).11
12
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1
2
Figure3.CombinedcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetillustratedinFig.2asafunctionof3
time,foremissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF;grey)andemissionsfromland-usechange4
(ELUC;brown),aswellastheirpartitioningamongtheatmosphere(GATM;purple),land(SLAND;5
green)andoceans(SOCEAN;darkblue).Thepartitioningisbasedonnearlyindependentestimates6
fromobservations(forGATM)andfromprocessmodelensemblesconstrainedbydata(forSOCEAN7
andSLAND),anddoesnotexactlyadduptothesumoftheemissions,resultinginabudget8
imbalancewhichisreflectedinthedifferencebetweenthebottomredlineandthesumofthe9
ocean,landandatmosphere.AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1.GATMandSOCEANpriorto1959are10
basedondifferentmethods.EFFareprimarilyfromBodenetal.(2017),withuncertaintyofabout11
±5%(±1σ);ELUCarefromtwobookkeepingmodels(Table2)withuncertaintiesofabout±50%;12
GATMpriorto1959isfromJoosandSpahni(2008)withuncertaintiesequivalenttoabout±0.1-0.1513
GtCyr-1,andfromDlugokenckyandTans(2017)from1959withuncertaintiesofabout±0.2GtC14
yr-1;SOCEANpriorto1959isaveragedfromKhatiwalaetal.(2013)andDeVries(2014)with15
uncertaintyofabout±30%,andfromamulti-modelmean(Table5)from1959withuncertainties16
ofabout±0.5GtCyr-1;SLANDisamulti-modelmean(Table5)withuncertaintiesofabout±0.9GtC17
yr-1.Seethetextformoredetailsofeachcomponentandtheiruncertainties.18
Time (yr)
CO
2 flux
(GtC
yr−
1 )
Emissions
Partitioning
Fossil fuels and industry
Land−use change
Ocean
Land
Atmosphere
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020−12
−8
−4
0
4
8
12
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1
Figure4.Componentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandtheiruncertaintiesasafunctionoftime,2
presentedindividuallyfor(a)emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),(b)emissionsfrom3
land-usechange(ELUC),(c)thebudgetimbalancethatisnotaccountedforbytheotherterms,(d)4
growthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM),and(e)thelandCO2sink(SLAND,positive5
indicatesafluxfromtheatmospheretotheland),(f)theoceanCO2sink(SOCEAN,positiveindicates6
afluxfromtheatmospheretotheocean).AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1withtheuncertainty7
boundsrepresenting±1σinshadedcolour.DatasourcesareasinFig.3.Theblackdotsin(a)show8
valuesfor2015and2016thatoriginatefromadifferentdatasettotheremainderofthedata(see9
text).Thedashedlinein(b)identifiesthepre-satelliteperiodbeforetheinclusionofpeatland10
burning.11
12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12(a) Fossil fuels and industry
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2
0
2
4
6
8
10(d) Atmospheric growth
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
yr−
1 )
(b) Land−use change
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
CO
2 par
titio
ning
(GtC
yr−
1 )
(e) Land sink
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
CO
2 flux
(GtC
yr−
1 )
Time (yr)
(c) Budget imbalance
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2
0
2
4
6
8
10(f) Ocean sink
Time (yr)
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1
Figure5.CO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryfor(a)theglobe,includinganuncertaintyof2
±5%(greyshading),theemissionsextrapolatedusingBPenergystatistics(blackdots)andthe3
emissionsprojectionforyear2017basedonGDPprojection(reddot),(b)globalemissionsbyfuel4
type,includingcoal(salmon),oil(olive),gas(turquoise),andcement(purple),andexcludinggas5
flaringwhichissmall(0.6%in2013),(c)territorial(solidline)andconsumption(dashedline)6
emissionsforthecountrieslistedinAnnexBoftheKyotoProtocol(salmonlines;mostlyadvanced7
economieswithemissionslimitations)versusnon-AnnexBcountries(greenlines);alsoshownare8
theemissionstransferfromnon-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountries(lightblueline)(d)territorialCO29
emissionsforthetopthreecountryemitters(USA-olive;China-salmon;India-purple)andfor10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12a
Global
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
5
CO2 e
miss
ions
(GtC
yr−
1 )
Coal
Oil
Gas
Cement
b
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Time (yr)
Annex B
Non−Annex B
Emissions transfers
c
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
CO2 e
miss
ions
(GtC
yr−
1 )
China
USA
EU28
India
d
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Time (yr)Per c
apita
em
issio
ns (t
C pe
rson
−1 y
r−1 )
India
USA
China
EU28
Global
e
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theEuropeanUnion(EU;turquoiseforthe28memberstatesoftheEUasof2012),and(e)per-1
capitaemissionsforthetopthreecountryemittersandtheEU(allcoloursasinpanel(d))andthe2
world(black).In(b-e),thedotsshowthedatathatwereextrapolatedfromBPenergystatistics3
for2014and2015.AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1excepttheper-capitaemissions(e),whicharein4
tonnesofcarbonperpersonperyear(tCperson-1yr-1).Territorialemissionsareprimarilyfrom5
Bodenetal.(2017)exceptnationaldatafortheUSAandEU28for1990-2014,whicharereported6
bythecountriestotheUNFCCCasdetailedinthetext;consumption-basedemissionsareupdated7
fromPetersetal.(2011a).SeeSect.2.1.1fordetailsofthecalculationsanddatasources.8
9
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1
Figure6.CO2exchangesbetweentheatmosphereandtheterrestrialbiosphereasusedinthe2
globalcarbonbudget(blackwith±1σuncertaintyingreyshading),for(a)CO2emissionsfrom3
land-usechange(ELUC),showingalsoindividuallythetwobookkeepingmodels(twobluelines)and4
theDGVMmodelresults(green)andtheirmulti-modelmean(olive).Thedashedlineidentifies5
thepre-satelliteperiodbeforetheinclusionofpeatlandburning;(b)LandCO2sink(SLAND)with6
individualDGVMs(green);(c)TotallandCO2fluxes(bminusa)withindividualDGVMs(green)and7
theirmulti-modelmean(olive),andatmosphericinversions(CAMSinpurple,JenaCarboScopein8
violet,CTEinsalmon;seedetailsinTable5).In(c)theinversionswerecorrectedforthe9
preindustriallandsinkofCO2fromriverinput,byremovingasinkof0.45GtCyr-1(Jacobsonetal.,10
2007),butnotfortheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxes(seeSect.2.7.2).11
12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
CO
2 (GtC
yr−
1 )
(a) Land−use change emissions
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CO
2 (GtC
yr−
1 )
(b) Land sink
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Time (yr)
CO
2 (GtC
yr−
1 )
(c) Total land
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1
2
Figure7.Comparisonoftheanthropogenicatmosphere-oceanCO2fluxshowingthebudgetvalues3
ofSOCEAN(black;with±1σuncertaintyingreyshading),individualoceanmodels(blue),andthetwo4
oceanpCO2-basedfluxproducts(Rödenbecketal.(2014)insalmonandLandschützeretal.(2015)5
inpurple;seeTable5).BothpCO2-basedfluxproductswereadjustedforthepreindustrialocean6
sourceofCO2fromriverinputtotheocean,whichisnotpresentintheoceanmodels,byaddinga7
sinkof0.45GtCyr-1(Jacobsonetal.,2007),tomakethemcomparabletoSOCEAN.Thisadjustment8
doesnottakeintoaccounttheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxes(seeSect.2.7.2). 9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
1
2
3
4
Time (yr)
CO
2 (GtC
yr−
1 )
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1
2
Figure8.CO2fluxesbetweentheatmosphereandthesurface(SOCEAN+SLAND–ELUC)bylatitude3
bandsforthe(a)North(northof30°N),(b)Tropics(30°S-30°N),and(c)South(southof30°S).4
Estimatesfromthecombinationoftheprocessmodelsforthelandandoceansareshown5
(turquoise)with±1σofthemodelensemble(ingrey).Resultsfromthethreeatmospheric6
inversionsarealsoshown(CAMSinpurple,JenaCarboScopeinviolet,CTEinsalmon;references7
andversionnumberinTable5).Whereavailabletheuncertaintyintheinversionsarealsoshown.8
Positivevaluesindicateafluxfromtheatmospheretothelandand/orocean.9
10
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1
2
Figure9.ComparisonofglobalcarbonbudgetcomponentsreleasedannuallybyGCPsince2006.3
CO2emissionsfrom(a)fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),and(b)land-usechange(ELUC),aswellas4
theirpartitioningamong(c)theatmosphere(GATM),(d)theland(SLAND),and(e)theocean(SOCEAN).5
Seelegendforthecorrespondingyears,andTable3forreferences.Thebudgetyearcorresponds6
totheyearwhenthebudgetwasfirstreleased.AllvaluesareinGtCyr-1.Greyshadingshowsthe7
uncertaintyboundsrepresenting±1σofthecurrentglobalcarbonbudget.8
9
10
11
12
13
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12(a) Fossil fuels and industry
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7(c) Atmospheric growth
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
Time (yr)
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
yr−
1 )
(b) Land−use change
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CO
2 par
titio
ning
(GtC
yr−
1 ) (d) Land sink
2006200720082009
2010201120122013
2014201520162017
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
1
2
3
4
Time (yr)
(e) Ocean sink
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TableA1.Fundingsupportingtheproductionofthevariouscomponentsoftheglobalcarbon1budget(seealsoacknowledgements).2
Funderandgrantnumber(whererelevant) authorinitialsAustralia,IntegratedMarineObservingSystem(IMOS) BT
AustralianNationalEnvironmentScienceProgram(NESP) JGC,VH
ECH2020EuropeanResearchCouncil(ERC)(QUINCY;grantno.647204). SZ
ECH2020ERCSynergygrant(IMBALANCE-P;grantno.ERC-2013-SyG-610028) DZ
ECH2020projectCRESCENDO(grantno.641816) PF,RS
ECFP7projectHELIX(grantno.603864) PF,RAB,SS
EUFP7projectLUC4C(grantno.603542) PF,MK,SS
FrenchInstitutNationaldesSciencesdel’Univers(INSU)andInstitutPaulEmileVictor(IPEV),SorbonneUniversités(UPMC,UnivParis06)
NM
GermanfederalMinistryforEducationandResearch(BMBF) GR,AK,SVH
GermanFederalMinistryofTransportandDigitalInfrastructure(BMVI) AK,SVH
GermanResearchFoundation’sEmmyNoetherProgramme(grantno.PO1751/1-1) JEMSN,JP
IRD,RIIntegratedCarbonObservationSystem(ICOS) NL
JapanNationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES),MinistryofEnvironment(MOE) SK,YN
NASALCLUCprogramme(grantno.NASANNX14AD94G) AJ
NetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch(NWO)Venigrant(016.Veni.171.095) IvdLL
NewZealandNationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearch(NIWA)CoreFunding KC
NorwegianResearchCouncil,NorwegianEnvironmentalAgency IS
NorwegianResearchCouncil(ICOS245927) BP,MB
NorwegianResearchCouncil(grantno.229771) JS
SouthAfricaCouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch,DepartmentofScienceandTechnology(DST)
PMSM
RIIntegratedCarbonObservationSystem(ICOS) AW,GR,AK,SVH,IS,BP,MB
SwissNationalScienceFoundation(grantno.200020_172476) SL
UKBEIS/DefraMetOfficeHadleyCentreClimateProgramme(grantno.GA01101) RAB
UKNaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(SONATA:grantno.NE/P021417/1) CLQ,OA
UKNERC,EUFP7,EUHorizon2020 AW
USADepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofScienceandBERprg.(grantno.DE-SC0000016323) ATJ
USANationalOceanographicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)OceanAcidificationProgram(OAP)NA16NOS0120023
CWH
USANationalScienceFoundation(grantno.OPP1543457) DRM
USANationalScienceFoundation(grantno.AGS12-43071) AKJ
Computingresources
GrandÉquipementNationaldeCalculIntensif(allocationx2016016328),France NV
Météo-France/DSIsupercomputingcentre RS
NetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch(NWO)(SH-312-14) IvdL-L
NorwegianMetacenterforComputationalScience(NOTUR,projectnn2980k)andtheNorwegianStorageInfrastructure(NorStore,projectns2980k)
JS
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UEAHighPerformanceComputingCluster,UK ODA,CLQ
1
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TableA2AttributionoffCO2measurementsfortheyear2016includedinSOCATv5(Bakkeretal.,2016)toinformoceanpCO2-basedflux1products.2
3Vessel Regions No.ofsamples Principalinvestigators Numberof
datasets
AllureoftheSeas NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 71744 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 36
AtlanticCartier NorthAtlantic 44302 Steinhoff,T.;Körtzinger,A.;Becker,M.;Wallace,D. 12
AuroraAustralis SouthernOcean 43885 Tilbrook,B. 2
BenguelaStream NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 137902 Schuster,U.;Watson,A.J. 21
CapBlanche NorthPacific,TropicalPacific 17913 Cosca,C.;Alin,S.;Feely,R.;Herndon,J. 3
CapSanLorenzo NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 9126 Lefèvre,N. 3
Colibri NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 27780 Lefèvre,N. 6
Equinox NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 97106 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 35
F.G.WaltonSmith NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 43222 Millero,F.;Wanninkhof,R. 16
Finnmaid NorthAtlantic 34303 Rehder,G.;Glockzin,M. 3
G.O.Sars Arctic,NorthAtlantic 109125 Skjelvan,I. 13
GAKOA(149W60N) NorthPacific 488 Cross,J.;Mathis,J.;Monacci,N.;Musielewicz,S.;Maenner,S.;Osborne,J. 1
GordonGunter NorthAtlantic,TropicalAtlantic 59310 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 13
HenryB.Bigelow NorthAtlantic 61021 Wanninkhof,R. 13
Investigator SouthernOcean,TropicalPacific 108721 Tilbrook,B. 3
LaurenceM.Gould SouthernOcean 26150 Sweeney,C.;Takahashi,T.;Newberger,T.;Sutherland,S.C.;Munro,D. 5
MarionDufresne SouthernOcean 3214 Metzl,N.;LoMonaco,C. 1
NewCentury2 NorthAtlantic,NorthPacific,TropicalPacific 25222 Nakaoka,S. 15
NukaArctica NorthAtlantic 47392 Becker,M.;Olsen,A.;Omar,A.;Johannessen,T. 12
Polarstern Arctic,NorthAtlantic,SouthernOcean,TropicalAtlantic 164407 vanHeuven,S.;Hoppema,M. 5
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RogerRevelle IndianOcean,SouthernOcean,TropicalPacific 93689 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 8
RonaldH.Brown NorthPacific,TropicalPacific 52267 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 8
S.A.AgulhasII SouthernOcean 27851 Monteiro,P.M.S.;Joubert,W.R.
SarmientodeGamboa NorthAtlantic,SouthernOcean,TropicalAtlantic 16122 Padin,X.A. 2
Savannah NorthAtlantic 2803 Cai,W.-J.;Reimer,J.J. 1
SEAlaska(56N134W) NorthPacific 271 Cross,J.;Mathis,J.;Monacci,N.;Musielewicz,S.;Maenner,S.;Osborne,J. 1
Skogafoss NorthAtlantic 22541 Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D. 4
Tangaroa SouthernOcean 118997 Currie,K. 7
ThomasG.Thompson NorthPacific,TropicalPacific 14656 Alin,S.;Cosca,C.;Herndon,J.;Feely,R. 1
TransFuture5 NorthPacific,TropicalPacific,SouthernOcean 23087 Nakaoka,S.;Nojiri,Y. 21
UNHGulfChallenger NorthAtlantic 2984 Hunt,C.W. 3
1
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