Global BRT (Bus Rapid Transit ) Market

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Brief summary of research findings from Frost & Sullivan's study focused on global BRT market

Text of Global BRT (Bus Rapid Transit ) Market

  • 1. Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and Advanced BRT SolutionsGlobalNA5E-18 March 2012

2. Research Team AnalystAnalystBharani LakshminarasimhanRyan CarmichaelResearch Analyst, Automotive & TransportationResearch Analyst, Automotive & Transportation+91 44 66814122bharanil@frost.comProgram Director+1.416.490.1274 ryan.carmichael@frost.comStrategic Review Committee LeaderSandeep KarSarwant SinghGlobal Director, Automotive & TransportationPartner, Automotive & Transportation+1.416.490.7796 sandeep.kar@frost.comN5AE-18+44 207 915 7843 sarwant.singh@frost.com2 3. Contents SectionSlide NumbersExecutive Summary6Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed20BRT Systems Market Overview and Definition26Bus Rapid Transit Systems Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis30a. BRT Standard32b. BRT Bus Standard33c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard34d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis35e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs37f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT39Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems41a. Market Drivers and Restraints b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems47c. Global BRT Vehicle MarketValue Chain AnalysisN5AE-1842503 4. Contents SectionSlide NumbersTotal Market Measurements51a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast52b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast54c. Global BRT Vehicle Bus Length Configuration Forecast56d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise57Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market Regional Profiles59a. Latin America60b. China68c. India75d. Europe84e. North America92f. Rest of World99BRT Systems Need Evaluation and Analysis108a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis N5AE-18109 1114 5. ContentsSectionSlide NumbersBRT systems Design, Development and Implementation process114a. BRT Evolution115b. BRT System Design and Implementation116c. Service Design118d. Operational Model119e. BRT Cost Structure120f. BRT Financing Models121g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT122h. Integrated Mobility123BRT Vehicle Analysis125Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion133a. Key Research Findings134b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook135AppendixN5AE-181375 6. Executive SummaryN8CF-186 7. Executive SummaryKey Findings1Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle purchase and replacement demand as well.2The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market.3Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018. Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018.4Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018.5By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines across the world.Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.N5AE-187 8. Executive SummaryBRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT Bus Rapid Transit is Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers in Both Developed and Developing World Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011Full BRT BRT Lite Busways Conventional Services Informal Services Non Regulated Operators Taxi Like ServicesOn-Board Fare Collection Poor Customer Service Often subsidized operations Segregated Bus Ways On-Board fare collection Standard vehicles and stations Segregated bus ways Pre-board fare collection and verification Higher Quality Stations Clean vehicle Technology Open BRT system with no cap on operators Integrated Routes (Feeder routes connecting the central trunk line) Closed, high quality Stations Flexible frequencies Variable services(All Stop and Express)Evolution of BRT Services Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisN5AE-188 9. Executive SummaryGlobal BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018North AmericaChina-IndiaExisting BRT with expansion plans New BRT systems in the planning phaseLatin America Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisN5AE-189 10. Executive SummaryVoice of Customer Research for Overall Public Experience in Relation to Transport Mode Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher share of individual transport 100%Share Individual Transport90%Car focused cities15 480%2 3 4 5 621713 3870%924 23 20 60%1011115 1750%1 2121413Public transport focused cities616840%22 18 10 730%14 15 169121718191920% 0%10%20%30%40%50%Share Public Transport n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index))JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities N5AE-18120 2122 23 24Total New York Seattle Los Angeles San Francisco Mexico City Rio de Janeiro Copenhagen London Paris Frankfurt Moscow Dubai Cairo Johannesburg Beijing Shanghai Seoul Tokyo New Delhi Kuala Lumpur Singapore Jakarta Sydney 10 11. Executive SummaryVoice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public Transit 1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region: In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between the two modes is the smallest. Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public transport Reasons for Frustration Reasons for Frustration Individual Transport Public Transport OvercrowdingTraffic11% 4% 32%53%TotalSpeedOther9% 3% 22%TrafficSpeedOtherNo frustrationsNo frustrations10% 4% 30%65%56%AmericasEMEA12% 4% 42%42%APAC14% 11% 12%14% 12% 13%14% 9% 11%31%24%29%32%37%37%TotalAmericasEMEA13% 11% 13% 37% 26%APACQ28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip?Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system. N5AE-1811 12. Executive SummaryComparison with Other Transit Solutions BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011 Light RailBRTConventional Bus5Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3]Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus] 4Route Flexibility [1], [4], [5]Capital Expenditure [1], [4.5], [5]3 21Environmental Footprint [5], [4], [2]Network (Distance) [2], [4], [5]0Passenger Information System [5], [4.5], [2] Total Ratings: Light Rail 34BRT 39 Conventional Bus - 29 N5AE-18Flexible Frequency [5], [5], [2] Off Vehicle Fare Collection [5], [4.5], [2]Journey experience [5], [4.5], [2]Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 12 13. Executive SummaryIntegrated Mobility The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation OptionsUrban Transportation PuzzleUrban RailSubways and heavy metro systems are available in city centers in urban areas. Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000 pphpd.BRTConventional Bus SystemsIdeal capacity of 10,00015,000 pphpd to bridge the gap.Car Sharing Bike Sharing Bicycle Walking Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000 pphpd. Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity.Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd) N5AE-18Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 13 14. Executive SummaryGlobal BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian, North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018Europe 800North America600600 400200 CAGRUnit ShipmentsCAGR400200 17 %China2000 150017.8 %CAGR100002011201850005.8 %020112018 15002011IndiaCAGR1000Latin America 300022.1 %5004000CAGRRest of World020112000150020186.9 %10001000 CAGR02011201820185.6 %500 02011 Base Year, End Year N5AE-182018Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 14 15. Executive SummaryGlobal BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018 Altenate FuelDiesel4,0002018 Regional Shares 7,874 3,000 14.9 %4,341 6.8 %20.4 % 2,000 85.1 % 8.0 %26.0 %93.2 %1,000 74.0 % 35.3 % 59.5 % 40.5 %02011 79.6 %13.0 %Latin AmericaNorth America87.0 %92.0%64.7 %EuropeChinaIndiaRest of World2018Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors. North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis technologies. N5AE-1815 16. BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service Compared to Direct Service BRT ApplicabilityLength ConfigurationDirect Servi