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Global and U.S. electric vehicle trends
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§ Global electric vehicle (EV) trends§ Sales, EV production volume growth, EV cost parity timing§ Top global EV markets§ Automaker announcements§ EV industrial competitiveness by country§ Canada EV sales - top
§ U.S. trends§ Policy developments§ National and leading EV markets
§ Zero-emission heavy-duty commercial freight vehicles§ More complex technology, policy space
Overview
§ Annual global EV sales surpassed 2 million/year in 2018 (5 million cumulative)§ Mostly the sales are in China, Europe, and the U.S.
§ These markets have policy, incentives, charging infrastructure, local action
Global electric vehicle growth
3
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ann
ual e
lect
ric v
ehic
le s
ales Rest of world
JapanChinaSwedenNetherlandsFranceUnited KingdomGermanyNorwayCanadaUnited States
Source: www.EV-volumes.com
§ Annual global EV production surpassed 2 million/year in 2018§ There are now 10 automaker groups selling over 80,000 EVs per year
§ Battery production: 5 companies supplying batteries over 200,000 EVs per year
Global electric vehicle growth
4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Elec
tric
veh
icle
s sa
les Other companies
General MotorsHyundai-KiaVolkswagenSAICGeely-VolvoBMWRenault-NissanBAICBYDTesla
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
20112012201320142015201620172018
EV s
ales
by
batte
ry s
uppl
ier
Other companiesFarasis EnergyHefei GuoxuanGS YuasaAESCSATBSSamsung SDIBYDLG ChemCATLPanasonic
Electric vehicle sales by automaker Electric vehicle sales by battery supplier
Sources: EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ and ICCT https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-electric-vehicle-industry
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Vehi
cle
pric
e
Conventional BEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300
Volume and innovation drive EV costs down
5
§ Battery cost reductions enable electric vehicle cost parity§ Parity points shown below for cars: 2024-2029 for 150-300-mile electric range§ Parity points for crossovers and SUVs tend to be several years later
BEV (250 mile)BEV (200 mile)BEV (150 mile)
ConventionalBEV (300 mile)
Based on ICCT, 2019. Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030. https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost
Top EV markets have a complete policy package
6
San FranciscoLos Angeles
Shanghai
BeijingSan Jose
Shenzhen
London
Oslo
AmsterdamStockholm
Paris
Tokyo
Hangzhou
Tianjin Qingdao
Wuhan
New York
Bergen
Seattle
San Diego Kyoto
GuangzhouChangsha
ChongqingZhengzhou
Based on total electric vehicles sales through 2017 See Hall, Cui, & Lutsey, 2018. http://www.theicct.org/publications/EV-capitals-of-the-world-2018
§ 44% of world’s EVs are in just 25 markets in China, Europe, Japan, US§ Each market benefits from regulations, incentives, infrastructure, model availability§ These areas are striving to overcome all the prevailing electric vehicle barriers
§ Automaker announcements by 2025: § Hundreds of new EV models, over $200b in investments, and 15m EVs/year§ Vehicle deployment would lead to higher volume than required by regulations
Automakers increasingly share all-electric vision
7Based on company announcements for plug-in vehiclesReport: https://www.theicct.org/publications/modernizing-regulations-electrification
China
Europe
U.S.
NissanRenault
Mitsubishi
Toyota
Volkwagen
Chonging Changan
BAIC
GeelyGeneral Motors
TeslaMercedes
BMWDongfeng
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Automakerannouncements
by 2025Government regulations
(adopted and strongest proposals under consideration)
Elec
tric
veh
icle
sal
es
Industrial competitiveness
Canada EV sales in global context, top EV models, vehicle sales and production statistics
8
§ Canada is the 8th largest EV market, with over 40,000 sales in 2018§ Annual EV sales growth rate for Canada over 2014-2018 has increased each year
Annual EV growth: Worldwide and in Canada
9
Source: www.EV-volumes.com
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018El
ectr
ic v
ehic
le s
ales Canada
+124%
+76%
+56%+33%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Elec
tric
veh
icle
sal
es
Rest of worldSwedenSouth KoreaCanadaFranceJapanUnited KingdomGermanyNorwayUnited StatesChina
§ Canada’s EV market largely depends on imports§ 97% of Canada EV sales were imports (53% from U.S.)§ 70% of U.S. EV sales were made in the U.S.§ Fifteen top-selling EV models in Canada and U.S. (90% of EV sales)
Canada and U.S. electric vehicle sales
10* denotes plug-in hybrid; Data are calendar year 2018 salesSources: ICCT; EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/
Canada sales United States salesRank Model Sales Assembly Rank Model Sales Assembly1 Tesla Model 3 6,300 U.S. 1 Tesla Model 3 139,700 U.S.2 Nissan Leaf 5,700 U.S. 2 Toyota Prius Prime* 27,600 Japan3 Mitsubishi Outlander* 5,300 Japan 3 Tesla Model X 24,700 U.S.4 Chevrolet Volt* 4,300 U.S. 4 Tesla Model S 24,500 U.S.5 Toyota Prius Prime* 3,500 Japan 5 Chevrolet Volt* 18,300 U.S.6 Chevrolet Bolt 2,500 U.S. 6 Honda Clarity PHEV* 18,200 Japan7 Ford Fusion Energi* 1,900 Mexico 7 Chevrolet Bolt 18,000 U.S.8 Tesla Model X 1,600 U.S. 8 Nissan Leaf 14,700 U.S.9 Chrysler Pacifica* 1,400 Canada 9 Ford Fusion Energi* 8,100 Mexico10 Hyundai Ioniq PHEV* 1,400 S. Korea 10 Chrysler Pacifica* 7,100 Canada11 Volkswagen e-Golf 1,200 Germany 11 BMW i3* 6,100 Germany12 Tesla Model S 1,100 U.S. 12 BMW X5* 4,400 U.S.13 Kia Soul 1,100 S. Korea 13 BMW 530e* 4,300 Germany14 Honda Clarity PHEV* 800 Japan 14 Mitsubishi Outlander* 4,200 Japan15 Hyundai Ioniq BEV 500 S. Korea 15 Kia Niro* 3,400 S. Korea
§ Canada is a global auto manufacturing leader and a top auto market§ 2 million vehicles produced, $50+ billion in annual auto and supplier exports in 2018§ Canada’s limited EV production puts its auto industry at risk in a global EV transition
Canada’s role in the long-term EV transition is unclear
11
RankIndustry metrics: 2018 production and exports Market metricsVehicle production
Vehicle export value
Automotive parts export value
Electric vehicle production Vehicle sales Electric vehicle sales
1 China (25.5 m) Germany ($167 b) Germany ($67 b) China (1,078,000) China (24.7 m) China (1,104,000)2 U.S. (11 m) Japan ($108 b) U.S. ($46 b) U.S. (335,000) U.S. (17.3 m) U.S. (358,000)3 Japan (9.2 m) Mexico ($74 b) Japan ($36 b) Germany (205,000) Japan (4.4 m) Norway (73,000)4 Germany (5.1 m) U.S. ($67 b) China ($35 b) Japan (181,000) Germany (3.4 m) Germany (66,000)5 India (4.7 m) Canada ($45 b) Mexico ($30 b) S. Korea (84,000) India (3.4 m) U.K. (60,000)6 S. Korea (4 m) U.K. ($44 b) S. Korea ($20 b) France (59,000) U.K. (2.4 m) Japan (53,000)7 Mexico (3.9 m) Spain ($42 b) France ($16 b) U.K. (50,000) France (2.2 m) France (46,000)8 Spain (2.8 m) S. Korea ($40 b) Czech Rep. ($15 b) Sweden (28,000) Brazil (2.1 m) Canada (43,000)9 Brazil (2.7 m) Belgium ($38 b) Italy ($15 b) Nether. (13,000) Canada (2 m) S. Korea (32,000)10 France (2.3 m) France ($34 b) Poland ($14 b) Slovakia (13,000) Russia (1.8 m) Sweden (29,000)11 Thailand (2.2 m) Italy ($23 b) Spain ($12 b) Mexico (12,000) S. Korea (1.6 m) Nether. (27,000)12 Canada (2 m) Slovakia ($22 b) Canada ($11 b) Canada (9,000) Spain (1.3 m) Belgium (13,000)13 Russia (1.7 m) Thailand ($19 b) Thailand ($9 b) Spain (8,000) Mexico (1.2 m) Spain (12,000)14 U.K. (1.6 m) Turkey ($18 b) Romania ($8 b) Austria (7,000) Australia (0.9 m) Switzerland (9,000)15 Iran (1.5 m) Sweden ($14 b) U.K. ($7 b) India (1,000) Indonesia (0.9 m) Austria (9,000)
Global 91.6 million $1,730 billion $412 billion 2,090,000 91.6 million 2,090,000Canada share 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 0.4% 2.2% 2.0%
Vehicles include passenger cars and light trucksSources: ICCT; EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/; International Trade Center; International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
Canada0.4%
Turkey
United Kingdom3.2%
Czech
South Korea2.1%
Mexico0.3%Spain
0.3%
Brazil
France2.6%
Thailand
Slovakia1.2%
Sweden12%
Neth.8.5%
ItalyAustria1.0%0
20
40
60
80
0 1 2 3 4
Elec
tric
veh
icle
pro
duct
ion
(thou
sand
per
yea
r)
Light-duty vehicle production (million per year)
§ Canada’s limited EV production puts its auto industry at risk in a global EV transition§ Compared to 2.3% global EV share, Canada’s lags with 0.4% of auto production being electric
§ Canada’s EV production is from ~9,000 Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrids produced in 2018§ Other major auto producing countries (S. Korea, UK, France) are keeping pace§ Other non-major auto producing countries (Netherlands, Sweden) are becoming leaders
Canada’s EV production lags the global trend
12Sources: EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/; International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers; ICCT https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-electric-vehicle-industry ; Larger manufacturing companies not shown: China, U.S., Germany, Japan
Global trend: 2.3% electric vehicles
Trends in the U.S.Overall federal/state policy developments, top EV markets, and underlying factors
13
§ Federal government proposes revoking post-2020 CO2 standards and state authority on emission standards
§ 60% of the U.S. market is in states or cities that oppose federal rollback
U.S. vehicle policy developments
14Source: Slowik (2019): https://www.theicct.org/publications/state-city-clean-car-20190419
§ Cumulative U.S. electric vehicle sales have passed 1 million
U.S. electric vehicle sales: National
15
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Elec
tric
sha
re o
f new
veh
icle
s
Elec
tric
veh
icle
sal
es
Electric vehicle sales Share of new vehicles
Source: www.EV-volumes.com
§ Most EV sales are in markets with some combination of the following: ZEV regulation, incentives, extensive charging, city/utility promotions§ Nearly two-thirds of EV sales are in ZEV regulation states (CA, OR, Northeast)
U.S. electric vehicle sales: Local markets
16
Riverside
Dallas
Phoenix
Atlanta
Denver
Houston
New York
St. Louis
Miami
Chicago
Seattle
Portland
Las VegasNashville
Minneapolis
Austin
Kansas City
San Antonio
Salt Lake City
Detroit
Charlotte
Memphis
Washington
Pittsburgh
Boston
Orlando
Columbus
Richmond
Birmingham
Sacramento
Cincinnati
San Diego
Los AngelesOklahoma City
New Orleans
Indianapolis
San Jose
Jacksonville
Raleigh
Buffalo Providence
Milwaukee
Louisville
Philadelphia
Tampa
Baltimore
Cleveland
Hartford
Virginia BeachSan Francisco
Electric vehicle share0% - 0.5% 0.5% - 1% 1% - 1.5% 1.5% - 2% 2% - 3% 3% - 4% 4% - 5% 5% - 10% > 10%
Source: Slowik (2019) updates from Slowik and Lutsey (2018): https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
§ Most EV sales are in markets with policy, incentives, charging, local action
U.S. electric vehicle sales: Underlying factors
17
0% 10% 20%San Jose
San FranciscoSan Diego
Los AngelesSacramento
SeattlePortland
RiversideWashington
BostonDenverAustin
PhoenixSalt Lake City
HartfordRaleigh
New YorkAtlanta
Las VegasBaltimore
MinneapolisChicago
PhiladelphiaRichmond
MiamiProvidenceColumbusNashville
Kansas CityIndianapolis
TampaJacksonville
DallasCincinnatiCharlotte
BuffaloLouisville
MilwaukeeSt. Louis
PittsburghHouston
DetroitOrlando
San AntonioMemphis
ClevelandVirginia Beach
BirminghamOklahoma City
New Orleans
Electric vehicle share of new vehicles
0 800 1,600 2,400
Public and workplace charge points per million
population
Public Level 2
Public DC fast
Workplace
0 20 40
Models available (at least 20 sales)
0 3,500 7,000
Consumer incentives
Purchase incentives
HOV incentives
Other incentives
0 20 40Promotion actions
StateCityUtility
0% 10% 20%San Jose
San FranciscoSan Diego
Los AngelesSacramento
SeattlePortland
RiversideWashington
BostonDenverAustin
PhoenixSalt Lake City
HartfordRaleigh
New YorkAtlanta
Las VegasBaltimore
MinneapolisChicago
PhiladelphiaRichmond
MiamiProvidenceColumbusNashville
Kansas CityIndianapolis
TampaJacksonville
DallasCincinnatiCharlotte
BuffaloLouisville
MilwaukeeSt. Louis
PittsburghHouston
DetroitOrlando
San AntonioMemphis
ClevelandVirginia Beach
BirminghamOklahoma City
New Orleans
Electric vehicle share of new vehicles
0 800 1,600 2,400
Public and workplace charge points per million
population
Public Level 2
Public DC fast
Workplace
0 20 40
Models available (at least 20 sales)
0 3,500 7,000
Consumer incentives
Purchase incentives
HOV incentives
Other incentives
0 20 40Promotion actions
StateCityUtility
0% 10% 20%San Jose
San FranciscoSan Diego
Los AngelesSacramento
SeattlePortland
RiversideWashington
BostonDenverAustin
PhoenixSalt Lake City
HartfordRaleigh
New YorkAtlanta
Las VegasBaltimore
MinneapolisChicago
PhiladelphiaRichmond
MiamiProvidenceColumbusNashville
Kansas CityIndianapolis
TampaJacksonville
DallasCincinnatiCharlotte
BuffaloLouisville
MilwaukeeSt. Louis
PittsburghHouston
DetroitOrlando
San AntonioMemphis
ClevelandVirginia Beach
BirminghamOklahoma City
New Orleans
Electric vehicle share of new vehicles
0 800 1,600 2,400
Public and workplace charge points per million
population
Public Level 2
Public DC fast
Workplace
0 20 40
Models available (at least 20 sales)
0 3,500 7,000
Consumer incentives
Purchase incentives
HOV incentives
Other incentives
0 20 40Promotion actions
StateCityUtility
0% 10% 20%San Jose
San FranciscoSan Diego
Los AngelesSacramento
SeattlePortland
RiversideWashington
BostonDenverAustin
PhoenixSalt Lake City
HartfordRaleigh
New YorkAtlanta
Las VegasBaltimore
MinneapolisChicago
PhiladelphiaRichmond
MiamiProvidenceColumbusNashville
Kansas CityIndianapolis
TampaJacksonville
DallasCincinnatiCharlotte
BuffaloLouisville
MilwaukeeSt. Louis
PittsburghHouston
DetroitOrlando
San AntonioMemphis
ClevelandVirginia Beach
BirminghamOklahoma City
New Orleans
Electric vehicle share of new vehicles
0 800 1,600 2,400
Public and workplace charge points per million
population
Public Level 2
Public DC fast
Workplace
0 20 40
Models available (at least 20 sales)
0 3,500 7,000
Consumer incentives
Purchase incentives
HOV incentives
Other incentives
0 20 40Promotion actions
StateCityUtility
Source: Slowik (2019) updates from Slowik and Lutsey (2018): https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
EV share of new sales
Charging infrastructure
(per million)EV models available
Consumer incentives ($)
Local policy actions
Zero-emission trucks New electric and fuel cell trucks, cost analysis
18
19
Zero-emission commercial freight truck developments
§ Very promising developments across major truck classes
Gross vehicle weight class (U.S.)
Source: Hall (2019) updates from Moultak, Lutsey, Hall (2017) https://www.theicct.org/publications/transitioning-zero-emission-heavy-duty-freight-vehicles
Eforce EF18 SZM
Eforce EV26Thor ET-One
Volvo FL Electric
BYD Day Cab
emoss EMS 18 Serie
emoss EMS 16 Series
emoss EMS 12 Series
BYD Class 6 Truck
Cummins AEOS
emoss EMS 10 Series
Mitsubishi FUSO eCanterTevva eTruck
Tesla SemiNikola Two
Freightliner eCascadia
Lion Lion8
Freightliner eM2 106
Mercedes-Benz eActros
MAN eTGM
Volvo VNR
Volkswagen e-Delivery
Peterbilt e220
Thor MDV
Hyundai XCient
Nikola OneToyota Beta
Kenworth T680
Dongfeng Special Vehicle4
5
6
7
8
9
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Range (miles)
BEV in production (2019)
BEV announced
FCEV in production (2019)
FCEV announced
Class 8 straight truck(15+ tonnes)
Class 8 tractor trailer(15+ tonnes)
Class 6(8.8 to 11.8 tonnes)
Class 7(11.8 to 15 tonnes)
Class 5(7.3 to 8.8 tonnes)
Class 4(6.3 to 7.3 tonnes)
Eforce EF18 SZM
Eforce EV26Thor ET-One
Volvo FL Electric
BYD Day Cab
emoss EMS 18 Serie
emoss EMS 16 Series
emoss EMS 12 Series
BYD Class 6 Truck
Cummins AEOS
emoss EMS 10 Series
Mitsubishi FUSO eCanterTevva eTruck
Tesla SemiNikola Two
Freightliner eCascadia
Lion Lion8
Freightliner eM2 106
Mercedes-Benz eActros
MAN eTGM
Volvo VNR
Volkswagen e-Delivery
Peterbilt e220
Thor MDV
Hyundai XCient
Nikola OneToyota Beta
Kenworth T680
Dongfeng Special Vehicle4
5
6
7
8
9
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Range (miles)
BEV in production (2019)
BEV announced
FCEV in production (2019)
FCEV announced
Class 8 straight truck(15+ tonnes)
Class 8 tractor trailer(15+ tonnes)
Class 6(8.8 to 11.8 tonnes)
Class 7(11.8 to 15 tonnes)
Class 5(7.3 to 8.8 tonnes)
Class 4(6.3 to 7.3 tonnes)
20
Zero-emission commercial freight tractor-trailers
§ Very promising, but complex regulation, policy, infrastructure questions remain
Source: Hall (2019) updates from Moultak, Lutsey, Hall (2017) https://www.theicct.org/publications/transitioning-zero-emission-heavy-duty-freight-vehicles
$-
$0.40
$0.80
$1.20
$1.60
$0
$400,000
$800,000
$1,200,000
$1,600,000
2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030Diesel Battery electric Hydrogen fuel cell
Life
time
cost
per
mile
Life
time
tota
l cos
t of o
wne
rshi
p
Vehicle Fuel Maintenance Infrastructure Lifetime cost per mile
21
§ Electric vehicle growth§ Growth: 60%+ annual growth rate, 2 million EVs per year and growing§ Battery innovation and scale enables mainstream market in years ahead§ Industry commitments showing order of magnitude higher scale is underway
§ Policies for the transition to electric vehicles§ Top EV markets around the world show us a complete policy package§ Reducing CO2 emissions at triple the historical rate needed to decarbonize transport§ As EV cost parity is reached, policies including durable polluter-pay taxation,
regulation, infrastructure support, and consumer campaigns remain critical§ We could proceed with similar steps for zero-emission trucks in the years ahead
Conclusions
More infoICCT electric vehicle page:
http://theicct.org/electric-vehiclesWorld electric vehicle capital report:
http://www.theicct.org/publications/EV-capitals-of-the-world-2018U.S. city electric vehicle report: https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030:https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost
AcknowledgementsAnalysis and data collection by Pete Slowik, Dale Hall, Marissa Moultak, HongyangCui, Mikhail Grant, Sandra Wappelhorst, Huan Zhou, Mike Nicholas, Nic Lutsey
