2nd FAO/World Bank Expert Group Meeting on Investing in Agriculture and natural resources Management in the Context of Climate Change

East Asia and the Pacific Region, 14-16 May 2012, Bangkok

Global and regional food security situation and future prospects, and

emerging issues

Hiroyuki Konuma

FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific

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3 Source: FAO SOFI, 2010

Food prices are high and volatile

Food prices are high and volatile (still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)

Question

Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of growing future population?

5

6

7 Source: FAO SOFI 2010

8

India, 237.7, (44%)

China, 130.4, (24%)

Pakistan, 43.4, (8%)

Bangladesh, 41.7, (8%)

Indonesia, 29.9, (5%)

Philippines, 13.2, (2%)

Others , 49.8, (9%)

91 percent of undernourished in Asia and the Pacific live in just 6 countries

91% of Asia and the Pacific’s undernoulished population live in just 6 countries

Proportion of undernourished population in Asia-Pacific region remains 16% ,far from MDG target of 10% to be

achieved by 2015)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2009 2010

ProportionSource: FAO SOFI 2010

10

GDP growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Developing country growth (right-axis)

High-income growth (right-axis)

Developing country GDP (left-axis)

High-income GDP (left-axis)

$2004 billion Percent per annum

Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model.

11

World population

Source: UN, 2011

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1200019

5019

5519

6019

6519

7019

7519

8019

8519

9019

9520

0020

0520

1020

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

4020

4520

5020

5520

6020

6520

7020

7520

8020

8520

9020

9521

00

developed Sub-Saharan AfricaNothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and CaribbSouth Asia Eastern Asiapercentage annual growth rate (right scale)

millions

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Urbanization

Source: UN, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Rural Urban

billions

13

Food consumption (Kcal/person/day)

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050

Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia East Asia

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Changes in the composition of diets

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Near East and North Africa

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Latin America and Caribbean

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

South Asia

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

East Asia

Cereals Roots & tubersMeat Dairy Veg oils SugarOthers

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Industrial countries

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Subsaharan Africa

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

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Global production in 2050

Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year

• one more billion tons of cereals (45%)

• 196 more million tons of meats (76%)

• 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%)

• 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%)

• 429 more million tons of fruits (68%)

• 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)

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Past and projected increases in global production

56

317

170

24

77

60

0 100 200 300 400

developed countries

developing countries

world

percent

2005/07-2050 (projected)

1961-2005/07 (observed)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

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Sources of production growth

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

world developing developed

(percent)

Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050

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Is there enough land?

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed countries

sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America Near East / North Africa

South Asia East Asia

Arable land in use, 2005/07

Additional land projected to be in use, 2050

million ha

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

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Increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water

use

10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, Bangkok Source: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011

Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production

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Area equipped for irrigation (million ha)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961 2005/07-2007 -2050

annual growth (% p.a.)World 142 302 322 1.8 0.1Developed 38 68 69 1.5 0Developing 103 235 253 1.9 0.2Sub-Saharan 3 6 7 1.9 0.5 Latin America 8 20 23 2.1 0.3Near East/North Africa 15 31 34 1.9 0.2South Asia 37 90 93 2.1 0.1East Asia 40 88 96 1.6 0.2

million ha

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Is there enough yield potential?

• Yield growth: avg 0.8% per year to 2050 compared to 1.7% in the past decades

• Yield potentials - bridgeable yield gaps

- room for intensification

- technology could increase potentials

- R&D most needed for food-security sensitive crops, eg millet, sorghum, R&T, pulses, plantains

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Yields need to increase

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1961/63 2005/07 2050

cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1961/63 - 2005/07 2005/07 - 2050

cereals (growth % per year)

soybeans (growth % per year)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Uncertainties ( uncertain factors influencing future food security)

• Volatile crude oil prices

• Impact of climate changes

• Bio-fuel development

• etc……. 24

Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

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“worse case” 2080 scenario:

• less harvested area, up to -39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)

• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa

Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)

Source: IPCC (2007)

Uncertainty: climate change

The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America

Number of Disasters

Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

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Bio-fuels and other utilizations

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030

mill

ion

tons

other uses bio-fuel

cerealsexcl rice

sugar oilcrops starchy roots

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed

Conclusion • Resources may be sufficient for 9.2 billion people,

but – huge investment agricultural research and

infrastructure is required to increase productivity – and access to food by the poor remains an issue

which requires targeted approach;

• Yields increases may be attained, but natural resources management needs to be improved substantially, to counteract overuse, degradation and competition among different uses (land, water)

• Crude oil price, bio-fuel development and climate changes are major sources of uncertainty

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Conclusion (cont..) If this is a credible outlook, policies need to: • foster agricultural productivity in sustainable manner in order to

ease the balance between demand and supply • Improve natural resource management substantially, especially for

land and water. • harmonize policy between food security and bio-energy

development. • improve and disseminate technologies that reduce carbon emissions

and the environmental impact of agriculture • Promote agricultural adaptation to climate changes and mitigate

risks • improve safety nets and risk management with a special focus to

vulnerable population, in order to mitigate the variability of quantities and prices

• promote Blue Economy towards sustainable management of oceans and coasts, protection of marine ecosystems, and coastal livelihood developmet

• improve the functioning of markets and price transmission, in order to reduce price volatility and ensure that scarcity signals are orienting producers and consumers

FAO’s Regional Priority Framework for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2019

A. Strengthening food and nutritional security.

B. Fostering agricultural production and rural development

C. Enhancing equitable, productive and sustainable natural resource management and utilization.

D. Improving capacity to respond to food and agricultural threats and emergencies

E. Coping with the impact of climate change on agriculture and food and nutritional security.

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• International policy coordination

• Investing in agriculture and natural resource management

• Joint effort , partnership and working together

Thank you 33