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May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Global and EU context of Biofuels and Biomass
Biofuelwatchwww.biofuelwatch.org.uk
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council, UK
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Summary of presentation• Climate Change• Key issues for campaigners• Policy and Legislation problems• Sustainability criteria• Demand reduction and policy
strategies (transport sector)• Biomass, forestry• Gaian System issues
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Climate Change is No 1 global issue
• Global food crisis, energy costs, peak oil, economic/credit crucial too
Current trends
90% reductions- industrialised
countries
• Have less than 10 years to start (UK Stern review etc)
• Solutions will need to be social, political and technical
GHGs
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
‘Positive’ climate feedbacks –not on political radar
• IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically conservative.– Are constrained by what is politically and
economically acceptable.– Are also some two years out of date when
published.
• Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging science during last 2 years
• UK All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
US / EU Biofuel Policy –going off the graph
EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)
2010 2020
US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors– car manufacturers avoid more efficient vehicles – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Technology for or against climate, ecology and people?
• Humanity cannot afford false solutions • Climate Change is Complex
– Life and Earth are part of a whole system– must consider systemic view
• Sound science essential• Evidence based approach essential• New technologies must be subject to
thorough scrutiny/review on social, human and ecological impacts
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Agrofuels –no public policy debate
• Even current 1% EU penetration has taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of implementation
• Yet, there has been no consistent or complete scientific and policy scrutiny
• Bypassed by Governments and industry
• Public policy debate is urgently needed – moratorium is needed to facilitate this
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Emission reduction• "it would obviously be insane if we had a
policy to try and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of biofuels that's actually leading to an increase in the greenhouse gases from biofuels."
Prof Bob Watson, UK DEFRA chief scientist, March 2008
• Descending the emissions curve is crucial, BUT it is not everything –we must understand the other impacts in the whole system
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
What are key issues for NGOs?
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balancesIndirect, Land Use Change (LUC), N2O, CO2
• Environmental impacts:Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,
water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals
• Social impacts:Poverty, land grabbing, land conflicts, human
rights, labour, food security and sovereignty
• The concerns and calls from many organisations in the Global South
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Hundreds of NGOs in Latin America, Asia
and Africa have spoken out against large-scale biofuel
monocultures.
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
From African BN document• “In Uganda, there is an apparent failure to
recognise that by encouraging a favourable climate for agrofuels, foreign companies focussed on export are likely to take over the direction of biofuel production” Timothy Byakola, Uganda
• “The most fertile lands, with best access to water are being targeted, even though these lands are already being used for food production by small-scale farmers”Abdallah Mkindee, Tanzania
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
From African BN document• “There seems to be a lack of clarity over
whether investment and targets are aimed at production of biofuels for the Zambian market or for export. It seems that companies such as D1 Oils may be promoting biofuels as a domestic energy strategy, in order to open the door to amenable legislation, while really intending to focus biofuel production on the export market”. Matonga Mundia, Zambia
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Sawit Watch, Indonesian NGO• “Palm oil for biofuels increases social
conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia…It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the
Earth Nigeria• “It is a push by industry to make
another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to do increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces”
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Landless Movement of Brazil (MST)
• “We can't call this a ‘bio-fuels program’. We certainly can't call it a ‘bio-diesel program’. Such phrases use the prefix ‘bio-‘ to subtly imply that the energy in question comes from ‘life’ in general. This is illegitimate and manipulative. We need to find a term in every language that describes the situation more accurately, a term like agro-fuel. This term refers specifically to energy created from plant products grown through agriculture.”
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
from a declaration by Latin American NGOs
• “We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty…We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa. “
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based
– fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions
–Feedstock transport, shipping, ports–Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Agriculture/Land Use already 30-40% of global GHGs
• Deforestation, agriculture and peat
From Stern Report
The Land Use risk
Exporting emissions from
Northern transport to Southern
agriculture and land use
Also applies to Northern
agriculture(set aside etc)
Agriculture
Land Use & Conversion
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Agrofuel LUC will create further massive emissions
• A one-off GHG hit that takes many years to repay
‘Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food-based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States
creates a ‘biofuel carbon debt’ by releasing 17 to 840 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions these biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels.’
• Fargione and Searchinger papers, Science, February 2008
• Peatland rainforest -> Palm Oil: 840 years to repay
• But Palm Oil plantations only 25 years lifetime
Massive destruction beyond N2O - Agrofuels are
accelerating climate change
Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia
Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Some US examplesDirect land use change• Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to
corn – 48 years C debt (Searchinger et al, Science, February 2008) – EU/UK set aside / wheat, OSR
• corn/soy rotation to continuous cornIndirect land use change• deforestation for grazing / pasture / feed
lands displaced by sugar cane / soya(Brazil)
• deforestation for new soy to “replace” soy no longer exported by the United States
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
N20 needs further study• microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O • Underestimated (IPCC) - Crutzen• oilseed rape biodiesel, for example,
is up to 70% worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also corn ethanol)
• UK and EU Biofuels GHG calculations in scientific doubt
• Nitrogen pollution – Baltic, Gulf of Mexico
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
EU/UK Government figures NOW in complete scientific doubt
• From LowCVPpresentation to UK Bioenergy conference Sept 2007
Corn Ethanol -50%Oil Seed rape
biodiesel -70%
LUC
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Climate Impacts of Agrofuels –not on political radar until recently
• N2O and LUC GHG science only just emerging (although predicted for years)
• ‘Green fuel’ greenwash campaign by technologists, Government and Industry
• California - Low Carbon Fuel Standard Program – LUC data being presented
• UK – Gallagher/RFA review yet to report
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Food vs Fuel• Lester Brown has warned since 2006• UN FAO, September 2007
– “Developing countries face serious social unrest as they struggle to cope with soaring food prices”
• UN FAO, February 2008– “We will have a significant gap … in food aid… ,
and we will need an extra half billion dollars just to meet existing assessed needs.“
• UK UN/Brown summit, April 2008– Biofuels highlighted as a key issue
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Food crisis is not just biofuels …
• IFPRI estimate that a biofuel moratorium NOW would reduce food prices by 20% in 1 year (UN FAO)– ‘shock’ to food prices (Beddington)
• Commodity Speculation• Climate change, poor harvests and
droughts• Increasing meat consumption –
India, China
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Urgent IssuesEU/UK Wheat Ethanol Surge
EU Focus has been on biodiesel
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
East Europe Production Capacity (million litres ethanol)
18AmochimRomania
Starch36Cargill Polska (Wroclaw)
Cereals: 50% wheat, 40% maize, barley, rye; 10% molasses
100Akwawit (Leszno)Poland
Rye, wheat, triticale31BiofutureLithuania
12Jaunpagastas (Riga)Latvia
Cereals, maize40Györ Distillery (Györ)
Cereals, maize75Hungrana (Szabadegyhaza)Hungary
Sugar beet20Agroetanol TTD (Dobrovice)Czech Republic
Maize10Euro Ethyl GmbH (Silistra)Bulgaria
FeedstockPCCompanyMS
From www.ebio.org
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
East Europe Production Capacity under construction
Wheat75Slovnafta (Bratislava)Slovenia
Corn138 EnviralSlovakia
Cereals100BioetanLithuania
Maize 30 kt90First Hungarian Bioethanol Kft(Elsö Magyar BioethanolTermelökst)
Maize175Hungrana Kft. Hungary
Cereals, maize 70Ethanol Energy (Vrdy)
Cereals100Korfil a.s. (Vrdy)
Sugar beet720 Ktonnes
60 Agroetanol TTD (Dobrovice)
Cereals (possibly sugar as well)
100 PLP (Trmice)Czech Republic
13Crystal Chemicals
Maize30Euro Ethyl GmbH (Silistra)Bulgaria
FeedstockPCCompanyMS
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
UK Legislation RTFO• Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO)• Parliament disquiet, Oct 2007
– No sustainability criteria until 2011 – For : 10 (LAB – de facto whip)– Against/Abstain : 5 (CON) and 2 (LibDem)
• MPs called for moratorium (January + May)• UK Biofuel law came in on April 15th 2008
– 2.5% biofuel at he pump (5% by 2010)– In midst of global food crisis– Against warnings of senior scientists / policy makers– With UK Gallagher review outstanding– UK ministers - Darling/Wicks/Brown/Alexander all urging
caution– LOW PUBLIC CONFIDENCE
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
• Confusion–Renewables Directive
•10% by volume biofuels by 2020
–Fuel Quality Directive (FQD)•could force up to 26-28% BFs
–UK / France / Germany •all talking of capping targets (ie not above 5% or 7%)
EU Legislation
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Immature discipline• Driven by interests of industry and
government– Where are NGO stakeholders?
• Enforcement – How can agricultural system and supply chains
across planet be audited?
Many omissions• Direct and indirect GHGs (leakage)
– Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuelsmoves into new areas
• Direct and indirect environmental impactsDeforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,
water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals
Sustainability criteria (1)
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Sustainability criteria (2)• Direct and indirect social impacts
Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour, food security and sovereignty
• Macro impacts through commodity price shifts not handled– Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price
• US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price– EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices
causes palm oil expansion• Start times (holes in a leaky buckets)
– UK RTFO writes off peat land converted before 2005
– EU : No GHG target until 2013 for plantations before 2008
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
GHG Calculators• Largely look at processing side not
agriculture side• Weighted to favour industry
–Default values often weighted in favour of poor GHG biofuels
• Direct and In-direct land use change (LUC) not understood or covered
• Ditto N2O
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
US Legislation• Energy Bill 20% biofuel by 2020• 25%-33% corn crop diverted (for less
than 4% ethanol)• Bush-Lula agreement• 2nd generation fuels over-hyped
• This week: McCain (and 22 Republican senators) calling for US ethanol targets to be cut back
• Obama has voiced concern
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Why did we take the wrong path with biofuels?
• The ‘Green Fuel’ line over spun by scientists, government and industry
• Environmentalists, Voices from the Global South not listened to
• Government policies driven by:–Being seen ‘to do something’–Energy security NOT climate security
• All the above are lessons for future
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Second generation BFs etc• Technology will not deliver
– in time (very complex technology)– in quantity (scalability issues)– EU targets
April 2008: In the view of the European Environmental Agency Scientific Committee the land required to meet the 10 % target exceeds this available [EU arable] land area even if a considerable contribution of second generation fuels is assumed.
• Cellulosic technology – negative energy return (Patzek, Pimental etc)– GHG balances – wishful thinking?
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Second generation BFs etc• Must be evaluated at complete system
level– Water / soil depletion?– What is most efficient way to harvest solar
energy?– Biodiversity impacts– GM fuel crops next to food crops – difficult to
sell to EU citizens
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
National/EU legislation/policy for demand reduction
• Strict/robust vehicle efficiency• Public transport investment
– Modal shift
• Sustainable planning– Reduce journeys
• Big investment into True renewables– Marine / big wind / cheap PV / Desert solar? – Electric vehicles and electric storage
technologies / HVDC grid
• Needs political will/courage
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Desert Solar or CSP –Concentrated Solar Power
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles
Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ?
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Agrofuel Moratorium calls• George Monbiot, April 2007, UK Guardian• Southern and Northern NGOs (over 150),
July 2007 – No EU Imports, Large scale mono cultures
• Jean Ziegler, UN, October 2007– Food crisis : ‘crime against humanity’
• African NGOs (30), November 2007 – No global targets, no more African dev.
• UK MPs – Environmental Audit Committee– Suspend EU/UK targets
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Forest Biomass• Sustainability issues
–Production ecological/sustainable forestry
–Localised (reduce feedstock transport emissions)
–Scale – avoid monoculture and biodiversity loss
–Scale – too much localised production competes for agricultural land
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Biomass CHP – bad examples• UK – South Wales
–350 mW power plant–Timber imports from Russia, Canada,
Brazil?
• Liquid biofuel for CHP–Same problems as transport biofuels–Germany –OSR (high N2O) replaced by Palm Oil
(deforestation)
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Biodigestion• AD of waste and manure beneficial
–Eg Sweden
• Growing energy crops specially –Diverting food crops–Displacing food growing land–Scale
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Agroenergy/fuels and land useAgrofuels play into ….• climate tipping point•
• food security tipping point
• land rights critical threshold•
• ecological vs industrial agriculture critical thresholds
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
How should land be used?• Food > Feed > Energy (warmth) > Fuel • To store and sink carbon vs. land use
change (LUC)
Food > C-Sink > Feed > Energy > Fuel
• Control/ownership by indigenous people or by corporates
• Ecological and community agriculture vs. Industrial agriculture model, monocultures, corporate supply chains, pricing, GMOs etc
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Ecological restoration and re-forestation (ER/F)
Carbon storage for future
• Good for biodiversity
• ‘ER/F’ sequesters 2-9 more carbon than annual biofuel crops
• Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen, Science, August 2007
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Recent Publicationshttp://www.grain.org/seedling_files/seed-07-07-en.pdfhttp://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/ABN_Agro.pdfhttp://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/agrofuels_reality_check.pdf
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Recent Publications 2http://www.oxfam.org/en/files/bn_biofuelling_poverty_0711.pdfhttp://tinyurl.com/3c7esp (Greenpeace)http://tinyurl.com/3archk (FoEE)
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Conclusions• Moratorium on targets, imports and
large scale agrofuels is needed NOW–Stop rainforest/ecological catastrophe–Stabilise food supply, prevent starvation–Enhance the evidence base–Real public policy debate – with NGO
and Southern stakeholders–Looks at BFs in context of whole climate
issue–Look at the better ways forward
May 2008 Global and EU context for Biofuels
Conclusions• Agrofuels/agroenergy must be
considered in context of other tipping points re: food security, land use, agricultural models
• Small scale essential–Supporting local communities
• Ecological, biodiverse agriculture essential
• Land use for carbon sinking