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Glen Weisbrod & Chandler Duncan
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
Susan Moses, SJ Moses & Associates
TRB Annual Conference, January 2014
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LandDevelopment
EconomicDevelopment
TransportationInfrastructure
Technology & Demographic Change
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The American economy is changing.
High growth industries have specific location requirementsand clustering patterns.
High growth clusters concentrate travel demand andincreasingly strain resources.
To sustain growth industries, needs for supportinginfrastructure must be addressed.
Failure to provide sufficient capacity for high growthindustry clusters has a cost.
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High Tech, High Growth Sectorsare important to the US economy
US R&D Leadership:Biotech, Computer/Software
Highest Growth Rate
Source of Exports and Inward Investment
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Sector$ Output Growth
(Top Six)Employment Growth
(Top Six)
Professional, technical services X X
Financial Services X X
Software – Information Service X X
Construction X X
Retail X
Wholesale & warehousing X
Health care services X
Education X
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Jones Lang Lasalle, High-technology Office Outlook, United States, 2012.
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(Values represent Location Quotients; a value of 1.0 means that the study area has the statewide averageconcentration of the given industry, 2.0 means the area has double the state average concentration and 0.5means it has half of the state average concentration of the given industry.)
Source: Massachusetts Office of Labor and Workforce Development, 2011 data
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Cluster Key Industries Setting
Boston area: Kendall Square biotech; IT; internet; social media Urban
Boston area: 128 Corridor software; hardware, pharmaceuticals Suburban
San Francisco area: Silicon Valley software; internet; IT, social media Suburban
San Francisco: Midtown/SOM social media/gaming; internet; biotech Urban
Atlanta area: Medline health; biotech Suburban
Chicago area: Deerfield pharmaceuticals; headquarters Suburban
Denver Technology Center IT; telecom.; software Suburban
Seattle area: South Lake Union health; biotech; internet Urban
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Evolution: from pharma & computer clusters featuredin 1982 Congressional studyto today’s biotech & software clusters
Reasons for clustering (agglomeration):
Access to broad, skilled workforce (“urbanization” economies)
Access to research universities (“localization” economies”)
Land and wage premiums paid
Support high productivity & high growth, but…
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Congestion
High Growthin a Defined
Area
TransportationSystem
Capacity isLimited Limited Ability
to Spread Out
Reduced Labor Market Access
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Rt.128 Massachusetts
Denver Tech Ctr
Silicon Valley
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Rt.128 MassachusettsDenver Tech Ctr
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Industry ClusterCommuting Trips at
Peak
Peak V/C onRoutes Accessing
Cluster
% Increase inAuto Delay2010-2040
2010 2040 2010 2040
Cambridge Kendall 50,000 69,000 At capacity 1.4 27%
128 Corridor 24,000 26,000 At capacity 1.3 39%
Silicon Valley 39,000 56,000 At capacity 1.4 45%
SF Midtown/SOM 102,000 116,000 At capacity 1.5 20%
Atlanta Medline 64,000 97,000 At capacity 1.2 22%
Deerfield, IL 27,000 41,000 At capacity 1.5 39%
Denver Tech Ctr 9,000 10,000 At capacity 1.5 **
Seattle S Lake Union 14,000 18,000 At capacity 1.5 53%
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Industry Cluster
Access Routes Lanes Needed (2 way Free Flow)
MajorHighways
at Site
LanesAvailable
today
AddedLanes
Neededtoday
Total LanesNeeded by
2040
WideningFeasible?
Cambridge Kendall 2 8 +8 +10 No
128 Corridor 2 12 +4 +6 Partially
Silicon Valley 2 14 +2 +4 Partially
Atlanta Medline 2 18 +6 +10 No
Deerfield , IL 2 12 +2 +6 Partially
SF Midtown/SOM 1 10 +4 +6 No
Denver Tech Cr 2 16 0 +8 No
Seattle S Lake Union 2 16 +4 +10 No
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Private Fleets – bring workers from central cityand elsewhere in the metro area (stopgap action)
Public Investment
Google San FranciscoDeerfield, IL (Chicago Area)
Biogen CambridgeDenver Tech Center
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Industry Cluster
Transit ExpansionPlanned or Proposed
PrivateShuttles inExistence
Housing forMillennials
PlannedBus
ServiceFixed
Guideway
Cambridge Kendall Yes Yes Yes Yes
128 Corridor Yes Yes
Atlanta Medline Yes Yes Yes
Deerfield , IL Yes Yes Yes
Denver Tech Ctr Yes Yes
Seattle S Lake Union Yes Yes Yes
Silicon Valley Yes Yes Yes
SF Midtown/SOM Yes Yes Yes
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Baby Boomers aging
Millennial generation: values
Densification & condo booms
Urban “buzz”
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Cambridge Kendall Square San Francisco (Google office)
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Failure to provide sufficient public transportationcapacity for high growth clusters will have a cost
Lost productivity via either higher cost or lowergrowth
Direct effect on clusters: $32 billion of income390,000 to 480,000 jobs by 2040
Multiplier effects are greatest for R&D (3 – 4x)
Other types of clusters not counted
Report on the APTA web sitehttp://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/TransitHighGrowthClustersUS-Final2013-1124.pdf
Report summary & links:see top of EDR Group web sitewww.edrgroup.com
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