Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Energy and Water Resrouces of Indus Basin

7/30/2019 Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Energy and Water Resrouces of Indus Basin

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Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on

Energy

Outcomes and Recommendations

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal


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Pro ect Brief

Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on IndusDependent Water Resources and Energy

September 2009 to

Knowledge

June 2010

Collaboration of

ICIMOD and IUCN

Su orted b ADB

Screening

Focus on Indus basin


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Pro ect Outcomes

Gap analysis on the state of knowledge Stakeholder analysis and partnerships

Rapid climate and impact screening

Practical Mountain Glacier and Downstream Water

Risk Management Framework & Adaptation Guide

Proposal for potential climate change adaptation

Phase II ( Poster)


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Knowled e Platform

uploading ofcurrently 231papers/ reports/documents (status26 J ne 2010collection remainon-going as part of

Please send us your reports, articles, etc to make it more comprehensive


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Observed trendsAnnual Precipitation Deviation

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

adin

achi

ani

bad

hhor

hah

idan

bad

npur

un

di

ndin

lpur

ibbi

ltan

etta

bad

hore

han

lkot

bad

erat

inar

rree

wer

aku

l

bad

rosh

-600.0

-500.0

-400.0

-300.0

BKar Ji

Hyder C

Nawab P

adi

Jaco

bKha

No

kk

Dal

ba

Bahawal M Q

Faisa

lLa

D.I. S

i

Islam C

Parac

hM

Pes

h

Muza

ffar

Cities

Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

(summer and

Summer Precipitation Deviation

50.0

100.0

extent winter)

South North

-250.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

.

Badin

Karachi

Jiwani

Hyderabad

Chhor

Nawabshah

Padidan

Jacobabad

Khanpur

Nokkundi

Dalbandin

Bahawalpur

Sibbi

Multan

Quetta

Faisalabad

Lahore

D.I.K

han

Sialkot

Islamabad

Cherat

Parachinar

Murree

Peshawer

Kakul

Muzaffarabad

Drosh

Cities

the northern

Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

Winter Precipitation Deviation

0.0

50.0

100.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

Badin

Karachi

Jiwani

Hyderabad

Chhor

Nawabshah

Padidan

Jacobabad

Khanpur

Nokkundi

Dalbandin

Bahawalpur

Sibbi

Multan

Quetta

Faisalabad

Lahore

D.I.

Khan

Sialkot

Islamabad

Cherat

Parachinar

Murree

Peshawer

Kakul

Muzaffarabad

Drosh

CitiesDeviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

(Rasul et al., 2010)


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Observed trends

Area-Weighted Annual Maximum Temperatureanomaly

Change Rate = 0.185C per decade

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

(oC)

years

-0.5

0.0

0.5

ratureAnomaly

-1.5

-1.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Temp

(PMD, 2009)


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Observed trends

(Bhutiyani et al., 2009)


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U wards movements ofIsotherms

On theaverage, the30C isotherm

has nowmoved at 580m above its

location inearly 1980s.

(Rasul et a., 2008)


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Heat waves

Heat Waves Frequency over Northern Areas(when Max Temp > 35 Degrees) (consecutive 10 Days or above)

No. of heat

Northern

Longer

heat waves



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Pro ected Tem eratureChanges

Pakistan (For A2 Scenario (a) and A1B Scenario (b) based on Ensembleof 13 GCMs)

(Syed et al., 2009)


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Chan es in the Indus basin(Precipitation)

-



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Chan es in the Indus basin(Temperature)

-



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Projected Change

-Pro ections

Re ionPrecipitation

(mm/Decade)

Temperature

(C/Decade)

low trend

A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1

Upper Indus +4.8 +2.7 -1.5 +0.79 +0.65 +0.35

significant

trend

NorthernPunjab &

Upper NWFP+8.1 +6.1 -0.1 +0.02 -0.35 -0.03

Central /

Temperaturetrends higher

SouthernPunjab &

Lower NWFP

-3.1 -1.97 -0.5 +0.71 +0.63 +0.07

High

for NorthernPakistan

Balochistan. . - . . . .

South-EasternSindh

+7.3 +5.2 -0.01 +0.03 -0.21 +0.10

Sindh & Lower

Balochistan -2.87 -1.13-0.0

9 +0.55 +0.59 +0.07 (Rasul et al., 2010)


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Summar(based on Literature)

Basin Trend Projection Uncertainty

Upper Decreasingtemperatureduringmonsoon Increasingprecipitationand BothtrendsandprojectionsareIndus season;increasingtemperatureinspring

andwinter;increasedprecipitation;morerainfallthansnow;Glaciersmainlyretreating,someadvancing

temperature. showingincreasingtrendsforprecipitation.Fortemperaturehowevertheyshowdifferenttrends.

Lower

Indus

Temperaturehasdecreased,whileprecipitationhasincreased.Noglaciers.

Bothprecipitationandtemperatureareprojectedtoincrease.

Trendsandprojectionsshowdifferenttrendsinthecaseoftemperature.

Kabul Indicationsarethatmeanannual Currentmodelsindicate IngeneralthereisagreementtemperaturesinAfghanistanareincreasing.Meanrainfalloverthesameperiodhasdecreasedslightly,mainlyduetodecreasesinspringprecipitation.

significantwarmingacrossallregionsofAfghanistanandconditionsareexpectedtobecomedrier.Inadditionglaciers

betweenthedifferentstudies

Glaciersare

retreating.

This

combination

offactorshasledtoaprolongeddroughtinrecentyears.

aregradually

disappearing.

Jhelum, Decreasingannualprecipitationand Bothtemperatureand TrendsuptodateandtheChenab,

Beas,

Ravi,

Satluj

warmingtrendoverall,leadingtodrierconditionsintheareas.Glaciersaremostlyretreating.

precipitationareexpectedtoincrease.

projectionsintothefuturearenotinagreement


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Summar Observed trendBasin Trend

temperatureinspringandwinter;increasedprecipitation;morerainfallthansnow.Glaciersmainlyretreating,someadvancing

ower n us emperature as ecrease ,w eprec p tat on as ncrease . oglaciers.

Kabul IndicationsarethatmeanannualtemperaturesinAfghanistanareincreasing.Meanrainfalloverthesameperiodhasdecreasedslightly,mainlyduetodecreasesinspringprecipitation.Glaciersareretreating.Thiscombinationoffactorshasledtoaprolongeddroughtinrecentyears.

Jhelum,Chenab, Decreasingannualprecipitationandwarmingtrendoverall,leadingSatluj

. .


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Summar Pro ectionBasin Projection

.

LowerIndus Bothprecipitationandtemperatureareprojectedtoincrease.Kabul Currentmodelsindicatesignificantwarmingacrossallregionsof

Afghanistanandconditionsareexpectedtobecomedrier.Inadditionglaciersaregraduallydisappearing.

Jhelum,Chenab,

Beas,Ravi,Satluj

Bothtemperatureandprecipitationareexpectedtoincrease.


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Summar UncertaintBasin Uncertainty

precipitation.Fortemperaturehowevertheyshowdifferenttrends.

ower n us ren san pro ect onss ow erenttren s nt ecaseotemperature.

Kabul Ingeneralthereisagreementbetweenthedifferentstudies

Jhelum,Chenab,

Beas,Ravi,SatlujTrendsuptodateandtheprojectionsintothefuturearenotinagreement


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No change in Tarbela inflow(1961-2004; Ali et al., 2009)

Decreasing runoff in Hunza riverbetween 1961 and 2000 in spring(46%) and summer (35%; Fowlerand Archer, 2006)

Decreasing runoff in Hunza riverbetween 1961 and 2000 in spring(46%) and summer (35%; Fowlerand Archer, 2006)

Kabul

Significant decreasing trend inKabul river (1961-2004; Ali etal., 2009)

Significant decreasing trend inKabul river (1961-2004; Ali etal., 2009)

No trend observed in Shyok(1961-2000; Fowler andArcher, 2006)

Chenab

Indus

No flow trend in Mangla inflows(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)

No trend in flow at Kalabagh(1922-2002; Ali et al., 2009)

Satluj

BeasRavi

Increasing trend in Chenab(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)Increasing trend in Chenab(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)

IndusPlain

Significant reduction at Kotri(different authors)Significant reduction at Kotri(different authors)

Flow changes


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Glaciers in the CentralKarakorum thickening andadvancing, while glaciers in the

Glaciers in the CentralKarakorum thickening andadvancing, while glaciers in the

The glacier area in Afghanistanand surrounding countriesdecreased by nearly 40% over

the ast 40 ears Zonn, 2002

The glacier area in Afghanistanand surrounding countriesdecreased by nearly 40% over

the ast 40 ears Zonn, 2002Kabul

adjacent areas to the North andWest continue to diminish(Hewitt, 2005)

adjacent areas to the North andWest continue to diminish(Hewitt, 2005)

Jhelum

Chenab

Upper

Indus

BeasRavi

The vast majority of the studieson different glaciers in theWestern Himalayas showretreating snouts and decreasing

glacial mass balances (UNEP,

The vast majority of the studieson different glaciers in theWestern Himalayas showretreating snouts and decreasing

glacial mass balances (UNEP,at u

IndusPlain

Glacier dynamics


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Glacier information

Qin 2002Qin 2002

52,850 km2

20052005


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Knowled e a s

the Indus river basin Status

Dynamics mass balance!

Comprehensive modelling of impact on waterresources Data availability and quality

Uncertainty of predictions: conflicting results


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Ra id screenin 1

en ca on o r s s assoc a e o e par cu arintervention

Assessment of potential risk management and

Existing


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Ra id screenin 2

f r k r nin

Potential climate hazards/stresses

Vulnerability of the project objectivesPreliminary assessment of risk management options

Verification of above steps + 3 steps for field screening Detailed assessment of existing/potential risk


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Ra id screenin 3

ro ec s oun ry

Punjab Irrigated Agricultural Investment Program Pakistan

Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program Pakistan

New Bong Escape Hydropower Project Pakistan

Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program Pakistan

Small to Medium-Sized Hydropower Development Project Afghanistan

nergy ec or eve opmen nves men rogram g an s an

Field Screening


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Ra id screenin 4 Details in Screening report

Project Remarks

1 2 3

001-2010:X

The project is particularly affected by the looming water crisis.

Agricultural

Investment

water supply in the canals has reduced in the last ten years

(Mahmood-ul-Hassan, personal communication). For this reason

the project includes several adaptation options in on-farm watermanagement, groundwater management and institution reforms,

which are all believed to increase the resilience of the farmers in

the command area of LBDC. In terms of flooding there is a large

.

design of the structures is based on the assumption that Thein

dam will have a beneficial impact on floods of high magnitude. For

this reason the design floods are reduced and currently only the

1:50 years flood is being considered for the design of the barrage.

Overall, it is clear, that the main issue for this project is water

availability followed far behind by riverine and flash floods.


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Risk Management and AdaptationRisk Management and Adaptation Project ScreeningProject Screening

ep azar assessmenazar assessmen project vulnerable to any climate hazards?)Step A1: Determine the basin in which the project is located;Step A2: Identify the hazard level for this basin.

Step B Vulnerability assessmentVulnerability assessment Q2: Vulnerabilities (Are the interventions

objectives vulnerable to variations inclimate?)Step B1: Determine the development field;Step B2: Identify the different impacts of the respective hazards on theproject;

tep : ss gn t e appropr ate eve s to t e t ree components ovulnerability;Step B4: Determine the level impact on the society and the strategicimportance;Step B5: Determine the appropriate vulnerability level.

Step C1: on the basis of the hazard and vulnerability levels, determine the appropriate risk level;Step C2: Determine the appropriate action and validate this recommendation..

and adaptation options

and adaptation options

Step D1: Identify potential options;Step D2: Rate the different options;

intervention already take climate hazardsinto consideration?

AndQ6: Risk management options (What risk

mana ement o tions are to be

RecommendationRecommendationStep E

ep : ummar ze a op ons.implemented? What options could be

implemented in addition?)


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Prime Ministers Committee onClimate Change (PMCCC)

Prime Ministers Committee onClimate Change (PMCCC)

Ministry of Foreign AffairsMinistry of Foreign Affairs Development Banks

Bilateral DonorsMinistry of Food and AgricultureMinistry of Food and Agriculture

Int. Funding AgenciesInt. Funding AgenciesFederal MinistriesFederal Ministries

Task Force on ClimateChange

(PC-TFCC)

Task Force on ClimateChange

(PC-TFCC)

UN Agencies

Ministry of Water and PowerMinistry of Water and Power

Ministry of LivestockMinistry of Livestock

--

Ministry of EducationMinistry of EducationWWF

ICIMOD Oxfam

SDPI

.organisations/INGOs/NGOs

.organisations/INGOs/NGOs

Ministry of HealthMinistry of Health

LEAD-Pak

Technical Advisory Panel

(TAP)

Technical Advisory Panel

(TAP)

SCOPE

IUCN RSPsRelevant Provincial

Line Departments

Relevant Provincial

Line Departments

n stry o nv ronmentn stry o nv ronment

NARC/PARCNARC/PARC WAPDAWAPDA

NDMANDMA

GCISCGCISC PMD PMD

NIONIOPFIPFI SUPARCOSUPARCO

PCRETPCRET

Pak-EPAPak-EPAMember TAPMember TAP

LegendLegend

PIDEPIDEPAECPAEC

HDIPHDIP

CIITCIIT

AEDBAEDB

PCRWRPCRWR

AgriculturalAgricultural

PIDPID

Research/Data collectionResearch/Data collection

Member PC-TFCCMember PC-TFCC

Direction/SupervisionDirection/Supervision

GovernmentGovernmentAcademic InstitutionsAcademic Institutions

MitigationMitigation AdaptationAdaptation

ENERCONENERCONun vers esun vers es n . un ngn . un ng

NGO/INGONGO/INGO

Private sectorPrivate sector Private sectorPrivate sector

Stakeholderlandscape

Stakeholderlandscape


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Recommendations

Build capacity of relevant national institutions to adequately monitor andpro ec e mpac s o c ma e c ange ownsca ng o c ma e c ange

scenarios to sub-basin level, transboundary assessment of glacier dynamicsand water resources modeling of the Indus river and its tributaries);

Identify appropriate adaptation options suitable for the water and energy

sector and different locations in the Indus basin through enhanced researchase, p o s u es an n egra e p ann ng approac es;

Make water and energy programmes and projects climate proof through the

application of suitable tools to identify vulnerabilities and threats and with thehelp of the adaptation options identified above;

Support the creation of a favourable environment for the implementation of

climate change adaptation activities through awareness creation, policydialogue. Poster


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Thank ou

Documents

Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Energy and Water Resrouces of Indus Basin