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GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs). Varina Delrieu Bartlett School of Planning / CASA. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs)impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs)
Varina Delrieu Bartlett School of Planning / CASA
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
ABSTRACT
My research explores the impacts Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) have on urban communities by exploring changes in socio-demographic profile, accessibility and deprivation over time.
I am interested in sustainable development and want to know to what extent we can visually explore issues such as social-cohesion/exclusion, sustainable mobility and affordability.
I use GIS to spatially analyse data at the smallest spatio-temporal scale and look at ways that the results can be mapped to help urban planners evaluate and appraise an MUTP.
The MUTPs under study are two inter-urban railways; Channel Tunnel Rail Link ‘High-Speed 1’ and 2 hubs (Ashford and Ebbsfleet) in the UK, and KCRC West Rail Extension and 2 hubs (Tuen Mun and Yuen Long) in Hong Kong , so as to explore the effects of context on the impacts.
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Research Aims & Objectives
• Overview of contextual and theoretical frameworks
• Hypotheses & Research Questions in brief
• Outline of my Methodology
• Work Flowchart
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Background to MUTP and Impact Studies
• Planning Frameworks (UK & Hong Kong)
• Sustainability Challenges
• Overview of IT Planning Support Systems
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Two main indicator toolkits: literature review:
Accessibility: GIS and key research themes
Deprivation Indices: GIS and key research themes
• Emerging Issues Analysis
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Hypotheses and Research Questions
• Case-Studies: CTRL & WestRail
• Quantitative Datasets
• Qualitative Datasets
• Spatial Analytical techniques
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Coding and implementing a GIS toolkit
• Spatial analysis
• Visualisation and mapping outputs
• Creation of impact indicators
• Error Checking and Testing the toolkit
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Pattern recognition and interpretation
• Testing the hypotheses and answering the research questions
• Lessons for decision-makers
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH:
Introduction
Contextual Framework
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
GIS Toolkits
Analysis & Discussion
Summary & Conclusion
• Potential uses for the toolkit
•Theoretical and technical Critiques
• Areas for future research
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
RESEARCH FLOWCHART
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
The OMEGA Centre, BSP
Research Context:
Study of Decision-making in Planning, Appraising and Evaluating MUTPs and their Impacts.
This project critically examines thirty international experiences in the planning, appraisal and evaluation of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) and their impacts in the Developed World. Its overall aim is to ascertain what constitutes a ´successful mega urban transport project´ in the context of our fast changing world where visions of sustainable development are increasingly coming to the fore as a basis for assessing future development.
MUTP Definition: MUTPs are confined to post-1990 completed road, rail, bridge, tunnel or projects combining these types of links, costing in excess of US$500m (at 1990 prices), located either within urban areas or having a significant impact on urban and metropolitan development.
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
AIMTo create a toolkit that explores AccessibilityAccessibility, Deprivation IndicesDeprivation Indices and Demographic ProfilesDemographic Profiles as key indicators of socio-economic and change.
Utilising a range of datasets with spatial and temporal variables, the GIS will assess the effects of the MUTP and short- and long-term costs and benefits.
The synthesis of the toolkits’ outputoutput will provide a broader understanding of changes, and must be easily communicable to a wide user-group, such as policy-makers, planners and urban developers so as to play a role in the planning, appraisal and evaluation of MUTPs.
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
OBJECTIVES1. To identify and derive impact indicators from aggregated datasets across different
contexts
2. To clarify if ‘context is everything’ or what - if any - generic lessons for decision makers can be identified
3. To contribute to the OMEGA Centre’s question ‘What constitutes a successful MUTP?’ by discussion of the impacts, costs and benefits potentially derived from assessment of my case-studies
4. To discern what are the strengths and weaknesses in using GIS as a tool to reach the above objectives
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 1: GIS and the CONTEXT of the MUTP
• Hypothesis 1:
“Context is everything”
• Question 1a:
How can we develop GIS-based tools that enhance knowledge of a range of impacts when planning a large urban project, given the breadth of diversity in the projects’ contexts?
• Question 1b:
What is the degree of correlation between outcomes of decisions made for similar infrastructure projects in different context and how these can be compared and visualised?
• Question 1c:
How can qualitative Pre-Hypothesis Narrative Pattern Analysis data and Hypothesis-led questionnaire data from project stakeholder interviews be incorporated into a ‘map’ of the project in a meaningful way so as to enrich the quantitative datasets?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 2: GIS and the IMPACTS of the MUTP
What is an ‘impact’?
First Order: Direct changes, cost or benefit to the natural / built environment and population caused by the project itself
Second Order: Indirect changes, cost or benefit to the natural / built environment and population, where the MUTP can be considered the most influential catalyst for the changes; i.e. outcomes attributed to first order impacts
* Ability to assess impacts is affected by SCALE, both in a geographical, and cost vs. benefit sense
• Hypothesis 2:
“GIS can draw out spatial patterning that indicates socio-economic process that can be considered impacts of MUTPs”
• Question 2:
What spatially-embedded
i) Social ii) Economic iii) Physical variables produce the most reliable and comparable indicators of the impacts of key-decisions across a wide
scope of mega transport projects?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 3: GIS and MUTP SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES • Hypothesis 3:
“Accessibility Measures and Deprivation Indices can together provide a means to explore sustainability challenges such as social cohesion / exclusion, sustainable mobility and affordability”
• Sub-Hypothesis 3a:
“MUTPs improve social cohesion between pre-existing communities around an MUTP”• Sub-Hypothesis 3b:
“MUTPs induce social exclusion between the pre-existing communities and the newly developed communities around an MUTP”
• Questions 3a: Can aspects of sustainability through which an MUTP can be judged, be spatially analysed, especially as these are
expected to be weighted differently in terms of their importance in different spatio-temporal contexts (this refers closely to the change in the sustainability agenda over a Project’s lifespan)?
• Question 3b:
What factors can be considered to advance social exclusion?• Question 3c:
By which indices can we measure ‘affordability’ against?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
DATAFLOWCHART
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 2 Contextual Framework: OVERVIEW OF I.T. SUPPORT SYSTEMS IN MEGA
URBAN AND TRANSPORT PLANNING
2.2 How are I.T. and digital mapping tools assisting decision-makers?
Planning support / decision-making systems in local and national urban and transport planning
Planning support / decision-making systems in non-UK urban & transport planning (some focus on Hong Kong)
GIS-T: Geographical Information Systems for Transport
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 2 Contextual Framework: BACKGROUND TO MEGA URBAN TRANSPORT
PROJECTS AND IMPACT STUDIES
2.3 History of definitions, topics, developments, key papers and concepts, regarding planning, appraising and evaluating MUTPs Includes planning frameworks in the UK and Hong Kong
What constitutes a ‘successful’ MUTP, in the past, now and in the future…?
Sustainability challenges: spatio-temporal and politically contextual significance to my research i.e. Social Cohesion/Exclusion, Affordability and Sustainable Mobility
RPG9a (1995)
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework:THEORY AND APPLICATIONS OF THE TWO MAIN
INDICATOR TOOLKIT AREAS
2.1.1 Accessibility [network / economic]
2.1.2 Deprivation Indices [locational / social]
How these are important potential key spatial impact indicators of socio-economic change in urban communities post-MUTP?
Refer to research questions and hypotheses
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
[ adapted Murray et al. 1998: fig.1]
Ebbsfleet resident’s Home
MUTP: High Speed 1 – Domestic Service
Place of Work
Fastrack bus, cycling or walking (car?)
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Accessibility measures: perspectives and components What is Accessibility?
Transportation component Land-use component Temporal component Individual component
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
3.3 Accessibility measures: perspectives and components Measures: descriptions, examples, strengths and shortcomings:
Transport Infrastructure-based accessibility measures
Location-based accessibility measures:• Distance • Contour / Cumulative Opportunities • Potential accessibility / Gravity-based measures • Adapted Potential accessibility measure
Person-based accessibility measures
Utility-based accessibility measures
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
3.4 Accessibility studies and spatial / technological toolkits: an overview of methodology and research techniques
GIS, Accessibility and Transportation NetworksIntra-Urban Public Transportation* Inter-Urban (High-Speed) Rail Transportation
GIS, Accessibility and Land Use
GIS, Accessibility and Person-based measures
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Accessibility & GIS:
Flowchart of a suggested GIS process to measure accessibility (Liu and Zhu 2004b:50)
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Accessibility & GIS: transportation data
Digitising topological data for GIS:Kent Thameside Bus Network:(Access to the CTRL)Changes over time?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework:ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Accessibility & GIS: Public transportation on the periphery of Glasgow
[ Illustration of Easterhouse accessibility: O’Sullivan 2000 et al: Fig.9]
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Accessibility & GIS: changes following the construction of a new Mass Rapid Transit Line in Singapore
[ Illustration of 2D & 3D maps: Lui & Zhu 2003: Fig.6]
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Accessibility & GIS: Confidence Ellipses, Kernel Density Estimators and Shortest Path Networks: a study in analytical techniques
[Schönfelder & Axhausen 2003]
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework:
ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
3.5 GIS / spatial technology and accessibility measures: Discussion
How successfully can I adopt aspects of these approaches to explore the issues of socio-economic impacts and sustainability?
Scales of analysis; are there any cost and benefits of spatial, temporal or attribute data resolution?
How convincing and thorough were any geo-statistics and spatial analyses?
Level of programming and integration with the GIS
A summary of the prevalent shortcomings
How helpful are these approaches and techniques to assess MUTP impacts?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework:
ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
3.6 Access & Accessibility and Key Research Themes:
Accessibility as a social social impact indicator
Accessibility as an economiceconomic impact indicator
Accessibility and sustainability sustainability
Loosely based upon Preston and Raje (2007)
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Pennycook et al. 2001
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: ACCESSIBILITY: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
Criteria for choosing the most ‘suitable’ accessibility measure:
Aim of the evaluation
Availability and quality of the primary datasets
Interpretability and communication for end-users
Paths for further research
Articulation with hypothesis of impacts of MUTPs
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: DEPRIVATION INDICES:
THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
(Relative) Deprivation (UK); measured by the government since 1981
• ‘Carstairs Scores’ 1981 & 1991: 4 variables in Census dataset• Index of Deprivation 2000 (ID2000): released at Small Area level• Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 (IMD2004) – updated and
expanded from ID2000. Released at Super Output Area lower level • Indices of Deprivation 2007 (ID 2007): released Dec 07
Deprivation relates to the lack of a resource which is needed for a basic standard of life. There are many different types of deprivation and people can be deprived of one or more of these resources.
Kent County Council website 2007
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 3 Theoretical Framework: DEPRIVATION INDICES:
THEORY AND APPLICATIONSSeven ‘domains’: (Domain Weight)
• Income deprivation (22.5%)
• Employment deprivation (22.5%)
• Health deprivation and disability (13.5%)
• Education, skills and training deprivation (13.5%)
• Barriers to housing and services (9.3%)
• Crime (9.3%)
• Living Environment deprivation (9.3%)
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
4.1 Where are the case studies and why were they chosen:Case-study 1: Channel Tunnel Rail Link (High-Speed 1) hubs
Digimap Edina datasets
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 1a: CTRL hub Ebbsfleet: Thameside Gateway
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 1a: CTRL hub Ebbsfleet: Kent Thameside
www.gravesham.gov.uk/media/images/r/j/KTDevelopmentMapLarge_1.gif
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 1a: CTRL hub Ebbsfleet Masterplan(s):
www.ebbsfleetvalley.com
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 1b: CTRL hub Ashford Masterplan to 2031:
Identified as one of four major 'growth areas' for the South East in the Government’s Sustainable Communities Plan.
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Where are the case studies and why were they chosen: Case-study 2: Hong-Kong KCRC WestRail Extension
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 2a: WestRail Hub Yuen Long District
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Case-study 2b: WestRail Hub Tuen Mun District
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Census 1996
Forrester et al (2004)
Deprivation in Hong Kong SAR:
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
6.1.4 Boundaries: how to select and define the spatial & conceptual boundaries?
6.2 The importance of context: socio-economic, cultural, political, spatial and temporal: how are these impacting on the case-studies? Is context explaining some of the emerging issues but not others? Are there unanticipated emerging issues?
6.3 Spatio-temporal datasets data sources / issues / processing
6.4 Socio-economic datasets data sources / issues / processing
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
4.3 GIS datasets: Geographical extent
Spatial Data collected for SE / E England and London
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Road and train infrastructure data; (2006) From OS:
Strategi (1:250,000 )
Meridian 2 (1:50,000)
4.3 GIS datasets: Geographical extent
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Polygons of the smallest Census areas for 4 decades
4.3 GIS datasets: Spatio-Temporal extent
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
4.3 Non-spatial digital datasets: Census tabular data
Census tables from the last 4 decades: (some only at 10% sample level)
Census datasets: collected for 1971-2001
5 Main classes of data• Total population and Age• Household:
Composition
AmenitiesTenure
• Socio-Economic classification• Economic Activities & employment
Industry
Occupation•Travel
Car / Van ownership
Distance to work
Means of travel
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Where are the case studies and why were they chosen: Demographic profiles for socio-economic context of the 4 hubs:
Population density
Migration (long-term)
Soc-Ec classification
Employment levels
No of children
No of cars / household
Travel to Work
Ratio of owner occupiers
( + Accessibility level )
( + Deprivation Index )
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Qualitative Datasets:
Enriching the depth of contextual information for the hubs
Hypothesis-Led Interviews:More traditional method of data capture via interviews with key
stakeholders, to test hypotheses we have regarding how and why MUTPs develop as they do.
‘Hybrid’ InterviewsA combination of the above two techniques, where the Pre-
Hypothesis section in conducted first, so as not to pollute the interviewee with hypotheses.
Pre-hypothesis Narrative Pattern Analysis: Interviews with key stakeholders to tell us their ‘story’ of their experience of the project. Anecdotes are filtered and patterns drawn out to potentially discover unexpected yet significant patterns of outcomes in the project’s development.
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
DATAFLOWCHART
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 5: THE G.I.S. TOOLKITS
5.1 Research methodology & technical processes and analyses:a) Coding and implementing an integrated GIS toolkit (VBA /C++) b) spatial analytical techniques: MESDA, dynamic shift-share / GWR?c) visualisation and mapping outputsd) creation of impact indicators: generic / context specific
Need to design a robust framework for dealing with aggregate datasets
5.2 Error checking and testing of the tools
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 6: DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL ASSESSMENT
6.1 Pattern recognition and interpretation; making sense of the data: visualising changes over time and space for impacts, costs and benefits
6.2 How do methods respond to research questions and prove or disprove the hypotheses?
6.3 How do the tools respond to emerging issues in section 5?
6.4 How does the toolkit aid the evaluation of potential key spatial-temporal, socio-economic & environmental impact indicators, sustainability challenges facing the planning of MUTPs
6.5 Generic lessons for decision-makers – is context everything?
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
Section 7: CONCLUSIONS
7.1 How can these tools assist in the decision-making process during the following stages, i.e. through indicators:a) planning?b) appraisal (pre-project)?c) evaluation of outcomes (post-project), including impact studies?
7.2 Potential implementation and use of the toolkit in planning sector
7.3 Critiques a) Conceptual / theoreticalb) Technical
7.4 Areas for future research
Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder
TIMETABLE FOR 2007-08 SESSION
1. Completion of the secondary aspect of the theoretical framework “Deprivation Indices” [c10,000 words]
2. Overview of I.T. Support Systems in Mega Urban & Transport Planning [c4,000 words]
3. Background to Mega Urban Transport Projects & impact studies [c4,000 words]
4. Commencement of the coding of the GIS toolkits [VBA ArcObjects]
5. Identify significant dataset shortcomings and rectify
6. Field-trip: Hong Kong University Jan-March 2009: Data collection