GIS and Crime · 2020-04-13 · GIS and crime GIS helps crime analysis in many ways. The foremost...
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GIS and Crime The more we map, the more we know?
GIS and Crime · 2020-04-13 · GIS and crime GIS helps crime analysis in many ways. The foremost use is to visualize crime occurrences. This allows law enforcement agencies to understand
GIS and crimeGIS helps crime analysis in many ways. The foremost use is to visualize crime occurrences. This allows law enforcement agencies to understand where crime is occurring as well as to determine if there are any spatial patterns.
Therefore, GIS and crime mapping have the potential to improve the quality of life through the reduction of crime.
Is crime a geographic phenomena?
Depends on whom you speak to.One sub-discipline within criminology, environmental criminology, says yes.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Although the first formal laying out of environmental criminology was in 1971 (C. Ray Jeffrey), it wasn’t until the 1980’s that it became a major field in criminology. The current environmental criminology approach was developed in the 1980s, by Paul and Patricia Brantingham [from SFU], putting focus of criminological study on environmental or context factors that can influence criminal activity. These include space (geography), time, law, offender, and target or victim. These five components are a necessary and sufficient condition, for without one, the other four, even together, will not constitute a criminal incident (Brantingham & Brantingham: 1991). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_criminology
Models of Urban Crime. Aggregate Criminal Spatial Behaviour. Offender – Victim – Location Interactions. Routine Activities. Rational Choice Theory. Criminal Pattern Theory. While routine activity theory gives us a model to predict if a crime has all the right ingredients to occur, and rational choice theory gives us some insight into what an offender is thinking when they decide to commit the crime, criminal pattern theory helps us understand where the offence will occur. http://www.geo-comm.com/geolynx_crimeanalyst.html for image of clocks http://www.cityofno.com/pg-50-1.aspx
A Model to predict if all the ingredients are present for a crime to occur. What is the role of GIS? It obviously can play a significant role since place, the offender and the target/victim all occur somewhere and have demographic and socio-economic characteristics that can be explored using a GIS. Understanding the "Triangle of Crime" There are three major components that are necessary for the completion of any given crime: the criminal, the victim and the opportunity. Without all three of these components, no crime can occur. The Criminal Unfortunately, the number of criminals is staggering. There are currently more than 175,000 inmates in the custody of the California Department of Corrections. This does not include those being held at the county or municipal level. In Los Angeles County alone, that figure exceeds 20,000. Also to be considered are the many individuals on parole or probation. Incarceration can sometimes serve as a training ground for criminals. Inmates may share information on police response procedures, how to select victims, how to commit crimes, and how to avoid detection. Upon release, many criminals return to the streets. Unfortunately for society, when one criminal is identified and taken off of the streets, there are many more to step up and replace him. Most criminals are calculating and leave their homes with a specific crime and method in mind to achieve their goals. Many will act upon impulse as the situation presents itself. In the Triangle of Crime, eliminating the criminal from the equation is realistically impossible. The Victim For every crime committed, there is a victim. It is very common for a criminal to have multiple victims. There are direct victims, such as those robbed at gunpoint, and indirect victims. An example of indirect victims are those who suffer higher insurance rates due to fraud. The number of potential victims is even larger than the number of criminals. The Opportunity Opportunity is the third component of the Triangle of Crime, and the one we have the most control over in our quest to reduce crime. The opportunity to commit a crime is what we as victims present to a criminal. Criminals, while either calculating or acting on impulse, must have an opportunity in order to commit a crime. There are simple steps that can be taken to reduce the opportunities presented to criminals. The steps include: not leaving items of value in the passenger compartment of your vehicle where they can be seen from outside; parking your vehicle in the garage at night; checking that all windows and doors are locked before leaving home; installing hardware in sliding glass windows and doors to keep them from moving vertically or horizontally when closed; making sure that exterior doors are of solid core construction and have deadbolts; installing an alarm system and posting alarm company signs in front of your home; avoiding the use of ATMs at night; walking in pairs (street robbers rarely approach multiple victims); and using a steering wheel locking device in your car as a visible deterrent to avoid theft. See, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Routine_activity_theory
Why is crime a geographic phenomena?
Routine activity theory (RAT):based on the activities of people:
offenders and victimsundertaken on a routine basis:
leave for school/work in the morning, lock up the store at night, go grocery shopping around lunch time, etc.
RAT predicts that:residential homes are burglarized during weekdays in the daytime, commercial properties are burglarized during the weekend and nighttime hours.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This topic is explored over the next few slides.
Why is crime a geographic phenomena?
This theoretical framework also incorporates variables such as:
the presence of children, renting versus owning, married versus single, Income,etc.
to capture the activities of people.
This highlights the temporal and socio-economic aspects of routine activities, but we also need to consider the spatial aspect.
Routine Activity Theory
If we are to assume that routine activities affect the time of the criminal event, we only need to look at those activities to see that they are spatial. Residential and commercial areas are not randomly located, different areas have different magnitudes of renting/owning, age composition of the resident population, etc.
Recognizing that socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics of people are not random across space, it is obvious that routine activities are also not random across space.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The map shows the heterogeneous distribution of crime, the demographic component (most crimes are committed by people between the ages of 14 to 24), and the temporal component (which is strongly related to people’s routine activities—going to work, shopping, out at night for drinking, etc.)
Routine Activity Theory
Brantingham and Brantingham (1991) introduced nodes of activity. These nodes are our places or residence, work/school, and leisure. Criminal victimization may occur at these nodes, or along the paths connecting them. Transportation cultures greatly affect the spatial distribution of criminal victimization.
In a "walking culture" where people work and live closely, there may be a lot of criminal activity occurring between the nodes, but in a "car culture" such as living in the suburbs and working downtown, criminal victimization will occur primarily at the nodes.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Based on this, it would be interesting to compare walkability scores with different types of crime incidents.
gym
home
work
friends
shops
Crime Activity
Routine activity and JTC
Presenter
Presentation Notes
So, consider this for a person living downtown, where all of the activities are connected by walking, versus someone living in Surrey where modes of transportation (skytrain, buses, cars) connect all of the activities.
Models of Urban Crime. Aggregate Criminal Spatial Behaviour. Offender – Victim – Location Interactions. Routine Activities. Rational Choice Theory. Criminal Pattern Theory. While routine activity theory gives us a model to predict if a crime has all the right ingredients to occur, and rational choice theory gives us some insight into what an offender is thinking when they decide to commit the crime, criminal pattern theory helps us understand where the offence will occur. http://www.geo-comm.com/geolynx_crimeanalyst.html for image of clocks http://www.cityofno.com/pg-50-1.aspx
Rational Choice TheoryMost offenders make a (fairly) rational decision to commit an offence.
What are the rewards against the chances of getting caught?The rewards and likelihood of capture vary by time and place. (Arguments: death penalty)
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Presentation Notes
Crime reduction strategies concentrate on tactics that increase the effort and risks for the offender while reducing their rewards e.g. modify the crime environment Crime specific Do you think that most criminals think things through before committing the crime? Most studies have found that the death penalty does not deter crime.
Offenders are influenced by the daily activities and routines of their lives.
They will tend to concentrate in areas that are known to them.In their day-to-day activities, they will be watching for targets that have no guardians or place managers.
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Presentation Notes
Sourced from: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-561-m/2004004/4053763-eng.htm About 30% of reported violent crime incidents in 2001 occurred in 3% of NCAs, and 30% of reported property crime incidents occurred in 7% of NCAs High-crime = NCAs falling into the highest 25% of violent crime rate neighbourhoods; lower-crime = remaining 75%. Rate per 1,000 residential and employed population.
Environmental CriminologyRoutine activity theory gives us a model to predict if a crime has all the right ingredients to occur, and
rational choice theory gives us some insight into what an offender is thinking when they decide to commit the crime, while
criminal pattern theory helps us understand where and when the offence will occur.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The interaction between offenders and victims must occur at some point in space and time. It has an inherently spatial dimension The crime must happen somewhere. How can that somewhere be mapped and anlayzed?
Environmental Criminology
Environmental criminology--a reflection that the geographical distribution of offences, of victimization and offender residence- is not a random process.
The geographical concentration of crime and criminality parallels other skews in criminological data. For example, the fact that a relatively small number of
persistent offenders commita very disproportionate number of crimes.
Environmental CriminologyThe two central concerns of environmental criminology are explaining:
the spatial distribution of offences andthe spatial distribution of offenders.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Knowing land use can then tell you where offences are more likely to occur, and offenders likely to work / play, etc. This was evident in the analyses you did looking at the Ottawa crime statistics. The spacing of the commercial b&e’s was tied to the landuse (wherein commercial areas are scattered about the landscape, unlike residiential areas that are composed of large swatchs of land).
Environmental CriminologyCrimes are human phenomena; therefore, their distribution across space is not random.
Several factors, from the lure of potential targets to simple geographic convenience for an offender, influence where criminal events occur. Therefore, an understanding of where and why crimes occur can improve attempts to fight crime.
Vancouver’s crimes
80,000 property crimes committed in Vancouver in 1996 assigned to the closest street address. The geographic pattern is obvious,
a reflection of the population density of Vancouver.[A more recent map.]
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Note the clear appearance of parks / golf courses in the map.
Vancouver crimes Increases in the number of calls for police service (over
60,000 per month), and in crime in general, have led to a greater need to sort, organize, analyze, and disseminate data.
As a result, criminal justice agencies have been turning to GIS. The previous map, displaying over 80,000 calls for service on property crime, could not have feasibly been done on paper.
Vancouver crimes
GIS allows for the inclusion of roads, bus routes, bus stops, and rapid, making network analysis of crime possible on levels not achievable previously.
Paul and Patricia Brantingham of SFU Criminology have shown that Skytrain stations and MacDonald's restaurants in Vancouver are hotspots for crime, if located in ‘depressed’ neighbourhoods.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
See this thesis for details: https://summit.sfu.ca/item/17735
D. Kim Rossmo: Geographic Profiling
Use the geographic locations of serial criminal offences to determine the most probable neighbourhood in which the offender resides (typically serial murder, sexual assault, arson, and robbery).
Use a combination of geographic crime site information and the profile of serial criminals in their selection of a target victim and location. The output--a map representing the probability density of the offender's place of residence.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Rossmo was one of the first to have identified the Pickton murders as serial murders, but the VPD did not believe in his work. It took many years / deaths before they finally took his profile seriously. He also had a lawsuit against the VPD for firing him: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Rossmo
Geographic profiling does not actually solve crimes--it is simply a powerful tool. By using the geographic nature of serial criminal events and known offender residences, detectives can narrow their search to the most probable offender. If the serial offender is "new", geographic profiling narrows the area that detectives need to monitor.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
https://www.txstate.edu/gii/geographic-profiling/overview.html as written by Kim Rossmo.
What is the geography of serial crime?
Offenders generally do not want to commit a crime too close to home. They wish to distance the crime they commit from their home in order to deceive police. They also, however, like to commit crimes in areas that are familiar to them: escape routes need to be known. Crudely put, the offender places a buffer around their residence and then chooses their target using a distance decay function such as the gravity model.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The donut theory.
CommuterMarauder
87% of serial sexual offenders were found to be Marauders
Commuter - Street Offences 26%Marauder - Convenience Stores 18%, Other Shops 25%, Service (GAS) Stations 17%
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Two broad classes of offenders—those who travel outside of their area of comfort to commit a crime, and those that stick closer to home.
Profiling: Demographic Analysis
Research has theorized that when offenders travel to commit crimes (called commuters) that they often travel to neighborhoods/areas that are similar to those that they live in. (Marauders commit crimes in their own neighbourhoods.)
Research has shown that burglars will commit crimes in neighborhoods similar to their own so that they will fit in and not look out of place when they look for victims.
Can this information be used to help focus profile results?
GIS and crime analysisCrime follows a geographic pattern. Since there is a pattern to criminal events, we have the ability to model and, possibly, predict crime--so, GIS is a valuable tool that can identify problem areas, produce maps for officers to use in the field, keep track of particular offenders, and assist in solving crimes.
Crime analysis: Definition
The qualitative and quantitative study of crime and law enforcement information in combination with socio-demographic and spatial factors to apprehend criminals, prevent crime, reduce disorder, and evaluate organizational procedures.
Crime analysis model
Administrative CA
Strategic CA
Tactical CA
Intelligence and Criminal Investigative Analysis
High
Low
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Presentation Notes
Think about this relative to all analyses / fields of research – how the level of aggregation affects what you can do with the data and to whom the results are relevant to. Almost all organizations have hierarchical organizations, and the granularity of information required typically decreases as you move up that hierarchy.
Crime analysis: Applications
Intelligence analysis: the study of 'organized' criminal activity in order to assist investigative personnel in linking people, events and property (e.g., social network analysis).
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Figures from http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/ showing a high school dating network and a corporate email communications network. Mention the organized crime agency of BC that uses GIS and SNA to track organized crime.
Criminal investigative analysis: the study of serial criminals, victims and / or crime scenes as well as physical, socio-economic, psychological, and geographic characteristics to develop patterns that will assist in linking together and solving current serial criminal activities (aka profiling).
Tactical crime analysis: the study of recent criminal incidents and potential criminal activity by examining characteristics such as how, when, and where the activity has occurred in order to assist in problem solving by developing patterns and trends, identifying leads / suspects, and clearing cases.
Strategic crime analysis: the study of crime and law enforcement information integrated with socio-economic and spatial factors to determine long term 'patterns' of activity, to assist in problem solving, as well as to research and evaluate responses and procedures.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Relating back to the crime analysis model.
Crime analysis
Administrative crime analysis: the presentation of interesting findings of crime research and analysis based on legal, political, and practical concerns to inform audiences within law enforcement administration, city government, and citizens.
Early 1800’s Social Theorists: Single symbol point and graduated area maps
1900’s New York City Police Department and others: Single symbol point maps, “pin maps”
1920-30’s Urban sociologists at the University of Chicago: Graduated area maps of crime and delinquency
1960-60’s First computer-generated maps of crime
1980’s Desktop computers available for (limited quality) mapping; Environmental Criminology Theory
1990’s Desktop GIS and integration with law enforcement systems and data; government funding, etc.
Some new approaches
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Risk-based policing is based somewhat on the commonly used multicriteria methods in GIS. http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com/risk-based-policing.html
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Presentation Notes
Tables scanned from the Risk-based Policing text. So, you can see that it is both the density and (relatively close) proximity to banks that is considered as a risk factor for robbery in Brooklyn.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Tables scanned from the Risk-based Policing text. Subway entrances are another factor, both in density and proximity (very close); similar to the findings of the Brantinghams in Vancouver.
A Model to predict if all the ingredients are present for a crime to occur. What is the role of GIS? Understanding the "Triangle of Crime" There are three major components that are necessary for the completion of any given crime: the criminal, the victim and the opportunity. Without all three of these components, no crime can occur. The Criminal Unfortunately, the number of criminals is staggering. There are currently more than 175,000 inmates in the custody of the California Department of Corrections. This does not include those being held at the county or municipal level. In Los Angeles County alone, that figure exceeds 20,000. Also to be considered are the many individuals on parole or probation. Incarceration can sometimes serve as a training ground for criminals. Inmates may share information on police response procedures, how to select victims, how to commit crimes, and how to avoid detection. Upon release, many criminals return to the streets. Unfortunately for society, when one criminal is identified and taken off of the streets, there are many more to step up and replace him. Most criminals are calculating and leave their homes with a specific crime and method in mind to achieve their goals. Many will act upon impulse as the situation presents itself. In the Triangle of Crime, eliminating the criminal from the equation is realistically impossible. The Victim For every crime committed, there is a victim. It is very common for a criminal to have multiple victims. There are direct victims, such as those robbed at gunpoint, and indirect victims. An example of indirect victims are those who suffer higher insurance rates due to fraud. The number of potential victims is even larger than the number of criminals. The Opportunity Opportunity is the third component of the Triangle of Crime, and the one we have the most control over in our quest to reduce crime. The opportunity to commit a crime is what we as victims present to a criminal. Criminals, while either calculating or acting on impulse, must have an opportunity in order to commit a crime. There are simple steps that can be taken to reduce the opportunities presented to criminals. The steps include: not leaving items of value in the passenger compartment of your vehicle where they can be seen from outside; parking your vehicle in the garage at night; checking that all windows and doors are locked before leaving home; installing hardware in sliding glass windows and doors to keep them from moving vertically or horizontally when closed; making sure that exterior doors are of solid core construction and have deadbolts; installing an alarm system and posting alarm company signs in front of your home; avoiding the use of ATMs at night; walking in pairs (street robbers rarely approach multiple victims); and using a steering wheel locking device in your car as a visible deterrent to avoid theft.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A map showing the results of a risk-based analysis of motor vehicle theft in Colorado Springs. This could be used by the police to target where patrols should more frequently occur.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A map showing the risk-based analysis results for gun violence in Newark, NJ. Again, the police can use this map in planning patrols and begin crime-reduction policies.
Examples of crime maps
Maps produced by a student fromMansfield University’s Mapping Technology program.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Just some examples of crime maps http://geoggeol.mansfield.edu/what-can-i-study/mapping-technology/ Not the best maps since the larger population areas (mainly on the coasts) are de-emphasized relative to the lower population but extensive geographically mid-wwestern states.
Relate this back to the maps you worked on in the CrimeStat lab. Taken from the CrimeStat manual.
The CIA has used Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to integrate counter-narcotics field operation
information related to Plan Colombia (e.g., eradication spraying areas, locations of raided coca labs, hostile fire on
aircraft)
New Jersey Parolees
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Presentation Notes
The costs of incarceration in the United States are often associated with specific neighbourhoods. In many neighbourhoods the costs can rise to the milliions of dollars per year—it would be far cheaper to provide welfare to the people than to put them in jail. Also see, for example, https://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/raceinc.html
Some examples of crime maps and software developed over the years.
Burglary hot spots for the City of Houston in relation to community garden locations
surrounded by a 2 mile radius circle
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Using our geocoded crime data for Houston, a series of raster grids were created by crime type using Spatial Analyst with a ¼ mile grid size. The resulting grid was symbolized as a surface in ArcGIS and exported as an image overlay (KML) using Arc2Earth. Heat maps such as this became very population in the 20 years.
CrimeView USA Community is a browser-based community policing application that enables community members to access crime data in their neighborhoods quickly and easily via the Internet.
Law enforcement analytics allows crime analysts to uncover criminal activity and deploy resources effectively. With Centrifuge you can seamlessly integrate disparate data, explore the data using dynamic relationship mapping and profile criminal activity using Centrifuge charts, time lines, tables and maps.
Visual Network Analytics provides the ability to visualize disparate sources of data using relationship maps which reveal meaningful insights using connections between people, phone calls, addresses, property or other forms of data.
GIS and crimeGIS has now become integrated in all aspects of policing—from tracking serial criminals to mapping hotspots to managing Departmental resources.The use of GIS and other geospatial technologies will only increase as the world becomes ever-more geospatially-enabled.
