Gilgit Baltistan's Energy Economics

8/2/2019 Gilgit Baltistan's Energy Economics

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

S.No. Content Page No.

I Table of contents 2

II List of tables 3

III List of figures 3-41 Abstract 5

2 Introduction 5

3 World population forecasting 6-7

a. Energy demand Analysis 8

b. Growth Rate based Method 9

c. Elastic based demand forecasting 9

d. Specific consumption Method 9

e. Ratio or intensity Method 9

f. Scheer Formula for estimating the generation 10

g. Belgium Formula 10

4 World Energy Demand 10-11

5 Regional Energy use 11-13

6 Energy Demand Management 14

7 Economic Analysis of Energy investment 14-16

8 Pakistan Energy Demand Forecasting and SupplyDemand Gap

16-26

9 Energy and Economic Growth 2610 Energy Crisis in Pakistan 26-27

a. Gilgit-Baltistan Population forecasting 28-29

b. Energy Demand of Gilgit-Baltistan 29-33

c. Blue-print of Energy Demand-Supply Gap 34-35

Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis 35-37

11. Conclusion 37

12. Bibliography 38-43


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List of Tables

S.No. Description PageNo.

1 World Energy Demand Calculations 112 Regional Energy use (kwh/capita) 12

3 US Electricity by source and weightage average cost perkwh

13

4 Projected US Electricity generation by source 13

5 The minimum and Maximum Values used in thecalculation of the 2010 Energy Development Index.

14

6 level of electrification in various regions 16

7 Province wise potential of hydroelectricity in Pakistan 20

8 Pakistan Energy Demand Calculation.(1947-2011) 219 Pakistan Company wise Energy Sources 27

10 Pakistan Energy Supply Mix 27

11 District wise Population of Gilgit-Baltistan (2011) 28

12 Hydropower Projects in Gilgit-Baltistan (2011) 30

13 GB, identified hydroelectricity sites and capacities. 31

14 GB Energy Demand Calculation 32

List of FiguresS.No Description Page

No.

1 World Population (2006-2010) 6

2 Region wise population growth rate 7

3 Countries having negative population growth rates 7

4 GDP Growth Rate by Region 8

5 World Net Energy Demand (1804-2050) 12

6 Pakistan Population growth trend (1947-2050) 17

7 Pakistan Population growth rate (2000-2011) 17

8 GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010). 18

9 Energy Supply Mix (2007) 18

10 Energy Consumption Mix (2007) 18

11 Per Capita Energy Consumption 19

12 Pakistan Net Energy Demand (1947-2050) 22

13 Pakistan Energy Demand based on discrete wattage (1947-2050)

23

14 Pakistan Energy demand, on different wattage and firmsupply (1947-2050) 23


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15 Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-2011) 24

16 Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011) 24

17 Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand scenario.(1997-2010) 25

18 Energy Deficit scenario (1947-2050) 25

19 Energy Deficit (1947-2050) 2620 Gilgit-Baltistan, showing Population, administrative set up

and area29

21 GB per capita energy consumption& Comparison withNational Standard.

30

22 GB, District wise firm energy 31

23 Region wise installed capacity of energy 32

24 GB Energy supply and demand scenario 32

25 GB Demand Supply histogram 33

26 Blue print of energy in GB based on 200W/C/D 3327 Blue print of energy in GB based on 302W/C/D 34

28 Blue print of energy in GB based on 608W/C/D 34


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ENGINEERING ECONOMICSAbstractPower consumption is an indicator of development of any country.So in order to provide adequate sustenance to destitute masses, supply to our

industries, booming the shattered economy from dominos to dynamos, to bring allbarren lands under cultivation, help improving environmental conditions we have tocapture and optimize energy resources.

The energy growth rate should increase with the growth of population. By dint ofrising of oil prices in the world oil market for sustainable development renewableenergy resources have to exploit and potential sites should be explored well in timeprior facing the music of energy crisis. Pakistan despite having enormous coalreserves and potential sites for harnessing environmentally friendly hydroelectricitysources has become an energy deficit country and relying on imported furnace oil,and rapidly depleting gas reserves. Utilization of non conventional energy resourceslike wind, solar, photovoltaic, biomass, geothermal, agricultural residue, tidal energy,ethane gas (C2H6) etc. is imperative for sustainable development.

1. Introduction

World population is increasing exponentially but the energy resources arediminishing with respective to population growth rate. World energy economicsindicates that energy consumption is the barometer of economic growth of anycountry. Regional population statistics depicts that population of South Asian

countries, African continent are increasing by leaps and bound. Despite having onechild policy chinas population is shooting up and after next thirty years India willsupersede China. China is exploiting its manpower and despite having lower energyconsumption its economy is growing considerably. There is a tendency among thecountries of the world for a correlation between income growth and growth in energyconsumption. Although the correlation is not perfect but some relationship holdsgood for many countries. The ratio of energy consumption to GDP is defined as theenergy intensity of the economy. The GDP grows through the increase in populationand results in an increase in energy consumption also. Therefore, growth of GDPvirtually parallels that of energy consumption.

Per capita energy consumption of Pakistan during 2011, is only 124Watt/capita/day,in comparison to 682.40W/c/d of India, 1516W/c/d of China and 10381.2W/c/d ofUSA. An exerted effort in the realm of improvement of living standard of people isimperative. The lower per capita energy consumption represents negative differentialin the quality of life of Pakistani people. We have to provide clean, reliable, economicenergy at eighty four times the current availability to every one of 187.343 millionPakistanis.Uplifting of socio-economic condition calls for energy. Thermal:hydro ratio has to bereversed and coal reserve has to be exploited and potential sites has to be exploredfor harnessing environmentally friendly energy.

1. World Population Forecasting


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Population statistics indicates that Friday, 13 November, 2026, has particularsignificance as according to Von Foerster et al (1960), the world populationP can be described by the expression,

( 99.011 )87.2026(10*79.1 TP

Where T is the time series 0 AD. The constant 2026.87 represents the dateat which P goes to infinity and corresponds to the above mentioned date. Dr.M.J Hall mentioned that despite publishing 1960, above equation has provedto be reasonably accurate. For 1989 the expression gives 4.9* 109, close tothe estimated world population of 5.2*109. For 2000, the equation gives6.88*109, compared with the estimates 6.2*109. The calculation shows worldpopulation in 2011 is 7 billion, where as in 2025 it will be 8 billion, in 2043 itwill be 9 billion and in 2083 it will touch the mark of 10 billion that are in closeproximity to the estimated figures.

Fig: 1, World Population (2006-2010)

Statistics show that population of Asian and African regions are increasing

exponentially where as population growth rate of other continents are slightly underpermissible control. Population of China, India and Pakistan etc. is increasing byleaps and bounds.

6300

6400

6500

6600

6700

6800

6900

20062007

20082009

2010

6545.88444

6623.57196

6700.76588

6776.91747

6853.01941

World Population (Millions)


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Fig: 2, Region wise population growth rate

Fig: 3 Countries having negative population growth rates

Source: CIA World Fact Book.

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Percentage

Population Growth by Region (Compound annual growth rates)

1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 2008-2035

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Bulgaria

MarshallIslands

Spain

Bahamas,The

Tonga

BritishVirginIslands

Ireland

Barbados

Jamaica

Korea,North

Montserrat

Croatia

SaintKittsandNevis

Latvia

Montenegro

Romania

Samoa

Venezuela

Iceland

Kyrgyzstan

AntiguaandBarbuda

Greece

PuertoRico

Haiti

Anguilla

Countries having negative population growth

rates (%)


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Fig: 4, GDP Growth Rate by Region

The demands for basic amenities of life like energy, water etc. is perpetually increasingrapidly, driven by the rising population and the continuing expansion of urban conurbations,which themselves account for 90 percent of population growth. Such abrupt growth causesincreases in demand for food supplies which stimulates an expansion of irrigatedagriculture, establishment of industrial units, and production of energy, which encourages

further energy development there by compounding the problems of matching demand forenergy with supply. Energy being one of the fundamental rights of every body can not bedenied and only 65% of world population has an access to energy and the remaining 35 %is still deprived from the basic amenities like energy. In this respect we can quote Eritrea,Haiti, Ethiopia and democratic republic of Congo. So concrete steps have to take byindividual country and international organizations that may help boost up economic growth,consequently every country will transform into a welfare state and the world may changeinto an omen of peace and tranquility. The world energy usage width chart shows thatpercentage of oil is 37%, coal 25%, gas 23%, nuclear 6%, biomass 4%, hydro 3%, solarheat 0.5%, wind 0.3%, geothermal 0.2%, biofuels 0.2% and solar photovoltaic 0.04%.

(a). Energy Demand Analysis.Energy economics being one of the vibrant fields of applied economics has tangibleapplication in the economic study of any country, industry, organization or institutionat large. In a broad spectrum a macro level analysis is beneficial to understand thegeneral and global issues and policy directions. According to (S.C Bhattacharyya P;77), Energy demand is not homogeneous across different uses and therefore thedemand determinants and behavioral factors influencing them vary from one sectorto another.

Macro demand analysis contains certain short comings by dint of thatdisaggregated demand analysis with or without macro demand analysis is

1990-2008

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%10.0%

OECD

NorthAmerica

UnitedStates

Europe

Pacific

Japan

Non-OECD

E.Europe/Eurasia

Russia

Asia

China

India

M

iddleEast

Africa

Latin

America

Brazil

World

Europea

nUnion

Real GDP Growth by Region Compound Average Annual Growth Rates)

1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 2008-2035


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imperative and hence the final energy demand has to be broken down into discretesectors and sub sectors,such as transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, industry and non energy

uses. It is also imperative to note that energy demand proportionally varies from onecountry to another depending on the degree of industrialization and stage of

economic development of the country. During calculating the energy demand thecaptive power that is the self generation of industries should also be taken intoaccount, like wise the consumption of energy for international air and water transportshould be excluded since this consumption is considered as export. In energyeconomics following energy demand forecasting methods are used:

(b). Growth Rate based Method.t

t rEE )1(0

Where, r is the growth rate in demand and E0 is the demand in year 0then Et is the net energy in a time period t.This is the most simple and widely used method in energy economics.

. Elastic-based demand forecastingWe use the following formula:

t

t

t

t

t

I

I

EC

EC

e

Where, t= time periodEc = energy consumption

I = driving variable of energy consumption such as GDP, value added, price,income etc. = change in variable.

(d). Specific consumption MethodUAE *

Where, A = level of activityU = energy required per unit of activity.

. Ratio or intensity MethodEnergy intensity is defined as follows:

Q

EEI

Where, E = energy demand,EI = energy intensityQ = Out put.


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(f). Scheer Formula for estimating the Generation Requirement

UCG 1010 log15.0log

15.0

10

UG

C

Where:G = Annual growth in generation (per cent)U = Per capita generationC = constant = 0.02 ( Population growth rate) + 1.330

(g). Belgium Formula

tKME

465.06.0 )2(

Where: E = electricity consumption

M= index of manufacturing of production,t = time for which consumption is to be projectedK = adjustment factor.

4-World Energy DemandAccording to IEA report, global power demand will surge 2.2% annually through 2035.World population has been calculated by Von Foersters formula up to the calendar year2026, beyond that it has been estimated based on recognized growth rate throughexponential growth formula and compared with actual available data of world populationstatistics. The estimated values are in close proximity to the actual values, nevertheless

it is an established fact that, at one side on account of better health facilities, less mortalityrate, encouraging fertility rate, long life expectancy and increasing tendency of polygamy inselected regions of the world due to lack of knowledge population is increasingconsiderably, but on the other hand concrete measures are being taken to keep thepopulation in the affordable controlled numbers through initiating special programs.The dichotomy has to be smashed abruptly and both tactical and strategic planning hasto be launched world wide through dialogue processes other wise the populationexplosion may jeopardize all adroit and justifiable strenuous efforts to cape the inordinategrowth rate and the resources, what ever we kept augmenting will be diminished withinshorter time period. Researches show that per capita energy consumption changes fromcountry to country with the passage of time there will be a quantum leap in every sector and

sub sector of energy consumption. Socio-economic development and industrialization mayalso propel the energy demand further. Energy intensity of specific target countries depictsthe scenario as under:

The energy intensity is the ratio of primary energy consumption over gross domesticproduct measured in constant US $ at purchasing power parities, i.e. mathematically givenby:


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WORLD POPULATION and Net Energy Demand

Year No Calculated by Actual Growth Projected Energy Net EnergyVon

Foerster's Rate Population Demand @ Demand growth@

Formula % Pn=(1+r)^tn*po 0.302KW/Capita/day2.2% per annum(MW)

(Exponential growth) i.e. 0.000302MW/capita/day En=(1+r)^t*Eo

1804 1 847777593 100000000 100000000 30200 30864

1900 96 1480906640 120000000 0.167 140802550.4 42522 343482

1927 27 1876775527 1600000000 0.925 2051570525 619574 1114981

1950 23 2431944831 2000000000 0.200 2094052622 632404 1043194

1955 5 2599386521 2550000000 0.216 2577618884 778441 867921

1960 5 2791733905 2800000000 0.089 2812522341 849382 947016

1965 5 3015002774 3000000000 0.067 3010013342 909024 1013514

1970 5 3277318390 3300000000 0.091 3315027298 1001138 1116217

1975 5 3589929712 3700000000 0.108 3720043290 1123453 12525911980 5 3968871399 4000000000 0.075 4015022517 1212537 1351915

1985 5 4437814039 4500000000 0.111 4525055617 1366567 1523650

1989 4 4901631733 4700000000 0.043 4708005108 1421818 1551127

1990 1 5033228241 4850000000 0.031 4851500000 1465153 1497386

1995 5 5814398427 5300000000 0.085 5322538240 1607407 1792174

1999 4 6639990102 5700000000 0.070 5716016850 1726237 1883233

2000 1 6884589358 6200000000 0.081 6205000000 1873910 1915136

2006 1 6545884440 0.053 6549343284 1977902 2021416

2007 1 6623571960 0.012 6624348835 2000553 2044566

2008 1 6700765880 0.012 6701537819 2023864 2068389

2009 1 6776917470 0.011 6777678986 2046859 2091890

2010 1 6853019410 0.011 6853780429 2069842 2115378

2011 1 7000000000 0.021 7001469806 2114444 2160962

Table: 1 World Energy Demand Calculations

Country

Electricity

consumption

(MWH/yr)

Year

of

Data

Source Population As of

Average power percapita (watts per

person)

World 17,109,665,000 2007 EIA[3] 6,464,750,000 2005 301.92

Electric power per capita [ in watt ] = Total population electricity consumption [ in MWH/yr ]*1,000,000/(365.2524)/population.Electric power per capita [ in watt ] = Total population electricity consumption [ in MWH/yr ]*114.077116 /population.1 MWH/yr = 1,000,000 Wh/(365.25*24)h = 114.077116 Watt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption#cite_note-tonto.eia.doe.gov-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption#cite_note-tonto.eia.doe.gov-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt


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Fig: 5, World Net Energy Demand (1804-2050)

Regional energy use (kWh/capita & TWh) and growth 1990-2008 (%)

Region

kWh/capita Population (million) Energy use (1,000 TWh)

1990 2008 Growth 1990 2008 Growth 1990 2008 Growth

USA 89,021 87,216 - 2 % 250 305 22 % 22.3 26.6 20 %

EU-27 40,240 40,821 1 % 473 499 5 % 19 20.4 7 %

Middle East 19,422 34,774 79 % 132 199 51 % 2.6 6.9 170 %

China 8,839 18,608 111 % 1,141 1,333 17 % 10.1 24.8 146 %

Latin America 11,281 14,421 28 % 355 462 30 % 4 6.7 66 %

Africa 7,094 7,792 10 % 634 984 55 % 4.5 7.7 70 %

India 4,419 6,280 42 % 850 1,140 34 % 3.8 7.2 91 %

Others* 25,217 23,871 nd 1,430 1,766 23 % 36.1 42.2 17 %

The World 19,422 21,283 10 % 5,265 6,688 27 % 102.3 142.3 39 %

Source: IEA/OECD, Population OECD/World Bank

Table: 2

y = 910931ln(x) - 405335

R = 0.9087

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

1804

1950

1965

1980

1990

2000

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

World Net Energy Demand (MW)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Easthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Easthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Worldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Worldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Worldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Easthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States


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Extrapolation of Results

2008 US Electricity Generation by Source & Weighted Average Cost per kWh

Energy Source % of Total Cost per kWh Weighted Average Cost

Nuclear 19.7% $0.04 $0.008Hydro 6.1% $0.03 $0.002

Coal 48.7% $0.04 $0.022

Natural Gas 21.4% $0.10 $0.022

Petroleum 1.1% $0.10 $0.001

Other Renewables 3.0% $0.15 $0.005

100% $0.059

Table: 3, US Electricity by source and weightage average cost per kwh

Taking these results further we calculate a weighted average energy cost per kWhfor the US of $0.059. If we were to double the amount of nuclear energy by replacingexisting coal capacity, the weighted average energy cost per kWh would be $0.058,a cost reduction of 1.7%. Tripling nuclear would yield $0.057, or a 3.5% costreduction. This does not take into account the intangible costs we would save byreducing coal emissions by about 40% (80% if nuclear was tripled). There would alsobe 40% less coal required (80% if nuclear was tripled), thereby reducing the impactof coal

Projected US Electricity Generation by Source & Weighted Average Cost per kWh by

Doubling Nuclear Energy

Energy Source % of Total Cost per kWh Weighted Average Cost

Nuclear 39.4% $0.04 $0.015

Hydro 6.1% $0.03 $0.002

Coal 29.0% $0.04 $0.013

Natural Gas 21.4% $0.10 $0.022

Petroleum 1.1% $0.10 $0.001

Other Renewables 3.0% $0.15 $0.005

100% $0.058 [change of -1.7%]

Table:4, Projected US Electricity generation by source

Unfortunately, the only way to reduce the per kWh energy cost in the US further is byreplacing peak production currently supplied by petroleum and natural gas plants.These plants satisfy peak demand because they can be fired up and powered downquickly. As with most things in life, there is a high cost associated with thisconvenience. Since nuclear energy is typically a base load generation source, thereare not many ways to reduce peak demand usage of natural gas with nuclear energycapacity.

The conservative primary energy per capita demand of 200watt= 0.0002 MW per

capita has been used in the initial estimate followed by a flate 2.2% per annum surgeof demand. International Energy outlook (IEO), 2011 indicates that world energy


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consumptioby increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increaseattributed to China and India.

Table 5: The minimum and Maximum Values used in the calculation of the 2010 Energy

Development Index.

Indicator Minimum Value (Country)

Maximum

Value (Country)

(toe) (kwh) (toe) (kwh)

per capita commercial energyconsumption 0.03 348.90 2.88 33494.40

(Eritrea) (Libya)

Per capita electricity consumptionin residential sector

0.001 11.63 0.08 930.40

(Haiti) (Venezuela)

Share of modern fuels in totalresidentialSector energy use (%)

1.40% 1.40% 100% 100%

(Ethiopia)

(Yemen,Lebanon,

Syria, Iran)

Share of population with accessto electricity (%)

11.10% 11.10% 100% 100%(DemocraticRepublic of

Congo)(Jordan,Lebanon)

S.C Bhattacharyya, (Energy Economics,P:135), writes that share of non OECDeconomies in the global energy demand will cross that of the OECD by 2030, it willaccount for 63% of the global energy demand followed by Asian developing

countries with a share of 38% of the global energy demand.

2. Energy Demand ManagementEnergy system primarily comprises of both supply-side and demand sideactivities. During early days when the energy price s were cheap, the focuswas on the supply-side that reversed considerably when the oil pricesincreased and governments have to work at the entire gamut of the problem.The demand side management,(DSM), consists of:

o Load Management: changing the size or timings of the demand,o Energy conservation: technical efficiency improvement,o Fuel substitution: changing oil by gas or biomass,o Load building: loading building implies developing load for strategic

purposes which could help manage the system better.

3. Economic Analysis of Energy Investment.Projects pertaining commercial energy share following features:

Capital intensiveness Asset specifity Long-life of assets Long gestation period.

The unit energy cost can be calculated by using the following formula:


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yearperconsumedusuallyEnergy

CostannualTotal

kwhSay

CostEenergyUnit

,,,,

,,

/,$

,,

PfP

MOC

ins

anan

*8760*

)(

Where,

ins

ins

an

P

OutputEnergyAnnualPf

factorPlantPf

factorplantandkwincapacityinstalledP

incapitalinvestedforrepaymentannualAC

*8760

,,

,,

,,,,,,

,$,,,,,,

We can easily calculate the unit cost of a power plant having capacity of say 20kw,plant cost of $40,000, expected life of 10 years, O&M cost at the rate of 3% of capitalcost, real discount rate of 10 per annum and plant factor of 25%.

I. Annunitized capital cost (Can) =

1)1(

)1(n

n

anr

rrPVC =

1)1(

)1(n

n

anr

rrCC =

6510$1)1.01(

)1.01(1.040000

10

10

II. Total amount cost = Can + Annual O&M Cost. = 6510 + 0.03+40000

i. (3% of capital cost)= 6510+1200 = $ 7710.

III. Unit Cost =

PfCapacityInstalled

CostAnnualTotalCostUnit

*8760,*,

,,,

Unit cost = kwh/176.0$25.0*8760*20

7710

Unit cost = 0.176 /( 60*60) = $/0.0000489KW as KWH = KW *H

perkwhice

usedhoursWattageEnergyofCost

,Pr*1000

,*,, =

perKWHice

KWH

,Pr

If the device does not list wattage but it does list amperes then we can multiply theamps times the voltage to get the watts, e.g.2.5 amps * 240 volts = 600watts.

Table: Capital costs and other relevant information for electricity generations.Source: AEOutlook 2010.

Prof. Dr. M.J. Hall, has mentioned that Gordon (1983) developed a general equation

for the total cost, C (106 US$ at 1982 prices), in terms of installed capacity, M,(MW), and the available head, H (m):


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82.0

H

MKC

Where, K = is a constant the recommended values of which are given as under:

Condition Minimum Average Maximum

Scheme with H< 350m 9.90 16.50 23.00

Scheme with H>350m 17.00 28.30 40.00

Small hydro H< 10MW 6.40 10.70 15.00

Table 6: level of electrification in various regions

Region Populationwithoutelectricity

(Million)

Electrification rate (%)

Overall Urban Rural

North Africa 2 98.90 99.60 98.20

Sub Saharan Africa 587 28.50 57.50 11.90

Africa 589 40.00 66.80 22.70

China and East Asia 195 90.20 96.20 85.50

South Asia 614 60.20 88.40 48.40

Developing Asia 809 77.20 93.50 67.20

Middle East 21 89.10 98.50 70.60

Developing countries 1453 72.00 90.00 58.40Transition economies and OECD 3 99.80 100.0 99.50

Global Total 1456 78.2 93.40 63.20

Source: WEO (2009),

4. Pakistan Energy Demand Forecasting and Supply-Demand Gap.Throwing a birds eye view on the world population statistics it can be construed thatPakistan is at serial number sixth in the more populous countries of the world where

as its population is growing at the rate of 1.57% per annum. The population growthtrend is depicted as under:


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Fig: 6, Pakistan Population growth trend (1947-2050)

When we see the list of richer countries of the world then Pakistan falls in the list oflow income countries, and from the prospect of energy consumption its per capitadaily consumption is merely 438.261KWH/capita per day. When Pakistan came intobeing in 1947, its population was just 315million that has now grew up to 187.343million in sixty four years that is almost 83.19% bulging out, and by the end of 2100the projected population will be 748.407 million, despite the strenuous efforts ofsubsequent governments as the population growth rate has lowered from2.17%(2000) to 1.57% (2011).

Fig: 7, Pakistan Population growth rate (2000-2011)

Statistics shows that the birth rate 32.11.1000 population (2000) has decreased to24.81/1000 population (2011) and death rate per 1000 population has alsodecreased as 9.51/1000 population(2000) to 6.92/1000 population (2011). Due tobetter health cover the life expectancy at birth has increased for 61.07years (2000)to65.63 years (2011). The GDP growth rate is also encouraging as it is moving upfrom 3.10% (2000) to 4.8% (2011), with a positive trend of GDP per capita (PPP),US$2000(2000) by US$2500(2011).

y = 2E+07x0.6717

R = 0.9636

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000300000000

350000000

400000000

1947

1961

1972

1990

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

PopulationinNos

.

Population Trend of Pakistan (1947-2050)

2.17 2.11 2.06 2.01 1.98 2.032.09

1.832 1.95

1.59 1.57

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Population Growth Rate (%)


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Fig: 8, GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010).

Researches show that if Pakistan is to register itself in the rank of countries ofeconomically moderate stable countries then its economic growth should be 6.5 to7.0 % during the next 15 years, i.e. when the projected population will be 255736063in 2030. The total electricity consumption during 2005 was 67.05 billion kWh, andduring 2008 it was 68.55billion kWh. The energy supply mix indicates that natural

gas (48.5%), is the top most rank followed by oil(30%), then comes hydro electricity(12.6%) and coal (7.3%), where as supply of LPG, nuclear etc. is juts 1.50% of thetotal mass cake.

Fig: 9, Energy Supply Mix (2007) Fig: 10, Energy Consumption Mix (2007)

Pakistan has an identified potential of 60,000 MW hydro electricity and the coalreserves of Pakistan is estimated to 183 billion tons while the present percentagerate of excavation is only 3.20 billion tons annually. Mand, Mubarak writes, These

energy deposits can generate 50,000MW, of electricity and 100million barrels of oilevery year for the next 500years. This energy reserve is 100 times the energyreserve in the Middle East, Iran, and Iraq combined. As per EIA, InternationalEnergy Statistics Pakistan domestic gas production is 1400(billion cubic feet)(2010)and consumption of the same quantity, where as the proved reserve is 30 billioncubic feet, and total production of oil is 58.36 (thousand barrels per day) (2009), andnet consumption of 397 (thousands barrels per day) (2009), and we have to import338.64 (thousand barrels per day),where as the proved reserve is only 0.34 (billionbarrels), where as a big chunk of state exchequer is consumed in importing oil andgas.

Pakistan is one of the sixth populous countries of the world as depicted below.

3.1

4.8

3.3

5.5 6.16.6 6.6

5.3

2.7

4.3 4.8

0

5

10

1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP-Real Growth Rate (%)

Natural

Gas

48%Oil

30%

Hydroe

clectrici

ty

13%

Coal

7%

LPG,Nu

clear et

c

2%

Pakistan Energy Supply Mix (2007)

44%

31%

14%

6% 5%

Pakistan Energy Consumption

Mix (2007)

Residential Industries

Agriculture Commercial

others


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As per IEA (2011), sources per capita energy consumption of Pakistan is on lowerside compared to other countries having enormous population as given below.

Fig: 11, Per Capita Energy Consumption

Pakistan in one of the richest resource countries in the world. But the entireresources are either not being exploited or misused. The vision of water for food anddevelopment is bleak. Projects of national interests have been capped due to interprovincial politics. On the other side major water projects were initiated withouttaking the affectees to confidence. Thorough planning and technical feasibility is

seldom carried out. Keeping the enormous water resources in the Gilgit-Baltistan ofPakistan our development rate, power capacity, and food reserve conditions areprecarious. No dam after Tarbela (1965) has been constructed rather all precioustime has been spent on ifs and buts of construction of both Kalabagh and Basha-Diamer dams. It is indeed injustice with the poor masses of the country. If we takethe world statistics 335 dams having height more than 60 meters and 35 numberdams of height more than 150m are under construction. In our neighboring countries,China, India and Iran, the statistics is 103, 23 and 43 numbers respectively. The eraof persistent injection of poison of self-centrism and provincial prejudices into thebody politics of the unfortunate beloved country should be ceased now. PresentGovernment deserves all appreciations for breaking the ice and initiating raising ofMangla dam by 30 feet, construction of Satpara dam, Gomal Zum dam, Mirani damand Diamer-Basha dam. The intention of the President on construct of bothKalabagh and Basha dams is worth commendable and encouraging. Both theopponents and proponents of Kalabagh dam are having cock fights. It is high time tobanish such melee, which is undermining the very fabric of our sovereignty. They aretwisting the hydrological statistics through fudging figures in their own favors forpolitical gains. It is not a political game but an issue of national importance, nationalinterest should be supreme, and our existence is with the nation. On the other handthe think thank of the country should not only stuck to Kalabagh dam (KBD) but alsoferret out other potential sites for our water resource development.

Water is renewable resource unlike oil, gas etc. Why dont we use the peculiartopography of Gilgit-Baltistan and utilize the God gifted resources in publico-

10381.2

1516682.4 1008.7

1421.9608.2

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

USA China India Indonessia Brazil Pakistan

USA China India Indonessia Brazil Pakistan Per Capita

Energy Consumption (in Watt as of 2011)


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probono. We have the technology of inflatable dam, which is widely in practice inJapan, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway etc. This type of flood barrier isused for controlling water levels during flood season. The flood barrier consisting ofthree huge balloons made of rubberized cloth, which fills with water and air whenflood is imminent. The inflatable dam is maximum 60 minutes and that of drainage is

180 minutes where as thickness of fabric is 16mm with minimum tire span of 35years and probability of its failure is 1:10,000 years. This is an advanced form ofdesign and construction. Despite that it is cost effective. Consultants can beengaged on design and construct approach. We can construct such dams atfollowing reaches of the Indus:-(1) Sermik, (2) Mehdiabad (3) Gole (4) Nar, (5) Kharfocho, (6) Katzara, (7) Tungus,(8) Yulbo, (9) Bunji, (10) Rakhiot, (11) Basha, (12) Dasu,(13) pattan, (14) Thakot,(15)Azadpattan, (16) Kohala etc. Where as is Gilgit-Baltistan this type of dam can beconstructed on several reaches of following tributaries of the mighty Indus: (a) RiverShyoke (b) River Shigar (c) River Hunza, (d) River Ghizer, (e) River Gilgit, (f) RiverAstore. Furthermore northern parts of Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa and Kashmir may be

other potential sites.The significant benefit of inflatable dam is that we can adjust the height as per ourown requirements. We can store flood water and required water is releasedharnessing enormous amount of electricity and release the stored water during leanperiod for irrigation purposes. This will help reduce sedimentation problem. Massivefloods are partly due to deforestation on the upper reaches of rivers; the leaf canopyof forests can retain 10-20% of rainfall and divert 50% of water underground.Province wise hydro electricity potential is as under:

S.No. Province Total Hydel Potential (MW)

1 Punjab 5895.82

2 Sind 178.05

3 Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa 186981.40

4 Baluchistan 0.50

5 Azad Kashmir 4635.80

6 Gilgit-Baltistan 60,000.00

Total 89408.27

Table:7, Province wise potential of hydroelectricity in Pakistan.

From power engineering we can easily calculate the wattage of any hydel stationwhen we have a specific hydraulic data of, 15meter head, 15cumecs, 80% plantefficiency then,

)(8.9 KWQHP

QKWQP 6.117)(,8.0*15*8.9

Total units generated for one hour=?P 117.6 * 15 *24 = 42336 kWh

Power generated per day = KW176424

42336

Power capacity of the country =95,000,000,000 KWH

Total Power capacity = (3958333.333)/3600= 1099.54 MW, during 2008.


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Energy Demand CalculationsYear Projected Firm Energy Deficit

Population Supply Demand (MW), @ as per

Pn=(1+r)^t*po (MW) (0.124)KW/Capita/day Residential

(Exponential

growth) (0.000124) MW/capita 124W/c/d1947 31500000 30 3906.00 -3876.00

1951 33999000 30 4215.88 -4185.88

1959 42158760 119 5227.69 -5108.69

1961 42978000 119 5329.27 -5210.27

1964 46846020 636 5808.91 -5172.91

1970 55278304 1331 6854.51 -5523.51

1972 65321000 1331 8099.80 -6768.80

1980 80998040 3000 10043.76 -7043.76

1981 84254000 3000 10447.50 -7447.50

1990 107002580 7000 13268.32 -6268.32

1994 119842890 9100 14860.52 -5760.52

1998 130580000 14618 16191.92 -1573.922003 150167000 17974 18620.71 -646.71

2004 163682030 19522 20296.57 -774.57

2005 178413413 19580 22123.26 -2543.26

2006 172381870 19550 21375.35 -1825.35

2007 175495080 19850 21761.39 -1911.39

2008 178479390 19850 22131.44 -2281.44

2009 181457280 19850 22500.70 -2650.70

2010 184404790 19850 22866.19 -3016.192011 187342700 19850 23230.49 -3380.49

Table: 8, Pakistan Energy Demand Calculation.(1947-2011)


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Fig: 12, Pakistan Net Energy Demand (1947-2050)

From the figure above it can be construed that during 2011 Pakistan estimatedpopulation is 187,34,2700, with 1.568% per annum and energy demand as per worldaverage @ 302watt per capita per day is 56577 MW, and against the firm supply is19850MW only. GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), is US$1050 and GNIgrowth rate is 4.8%. As per research of Azam Amjad Chaudry, the elasticity ofdemand for electricity with respect to per capita income is approximately 0.69, whichimplies that a 1% increase in per capita income will lead to a 0.69% increase in thedemand for electricity. Keeping that rate in view the growth will be 7.25% of GDP(US$ 1051) and energy demand will be 23230 MW, @ of0.124KW/Capita/day,[email protected]/Capita/day,56577.49MW,@0.302KW/Capita/day,and 113941.83MW @ 0.6082KW/capita/day, for the calendar year 2011.

y = 28.649ln(x) + 1925.6

R = 0.9698

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

20002020

2040

2060

Net Energy Demand of Pakistan (1947-2050) in MW


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Fig: 13, Pakistan Energy Demand based on discrete wattage (1947-2050)

Fig: 14, Pakistan Energy demand, on different wattage and firm supply (1947-2050)

0.00

50000.00

100000.00

150000.00

200000.00

250000.00

1947

1959

1964

1972

1981

1994

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

PAKISTAN ENERGY DEMAND SCENARION 2011

"124w/c/d, 200w/c//d,302w/c/d,608.2w/c/d"

0.00

20000.00

40000.00

60000.00

80000.00

100000.00

120000.00

1947

1951

1959

1961

1964

1970

1972

1980

1981

1990

1994

1998

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

MWs

Pakistan Energy Demand and Firm Supply Scenarion based on

discrete per capita energy consumptions (1947-2011)


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Fig: 15, Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-2011)

Fig: 16, Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011)

30 30 119 119636

1331 1331

3000 3000

7000

9100

12800

19500

y = 220.95x2 - 1754.6x + 2823.8

R = 0.9652

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1947 1951 1959 1961 1964 1970 1972 1980 1981 1990 1994 1998

AxisTitle

Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-1998)

-1573.92

-646.71-774.57

-2543.26

-1825.35 -1911.39

-2281.44

-2650.70

-3016.19

-3380.49

-4000.00

-3500.00

-3000.00

-2500.00

-2000.00

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pakistan Energy Crisis Scenarion (1998-2011) in MWs based

on 124W/c/day


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Fig: 17, Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand scenario.(1997-2010)

Fig: 18, Energy Deficit scenario (1947-2050)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PowerinMW

Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand Scenario in MW

(1997-2010)

y = -9.1339x2 + 221.01x - 5288.2

R = 0.945

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

1947

1961

1972

1990

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

Energy Deficit (1947-2050) in MW based on the existing

19855 MW is not increased & per capita energy demand

growth is 0.69% of GNI that remains constt. @ 6% after 2011

i/c the line losses @ 17%


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Fig: 19, Energy Deficit (1947-2050)

5. Energy and Economic GrowthPakistan being the sixth populous country of the world and having highest populationgrowth rate among SAARC countries more migration from village to cities andincrease stress on environment, recovery phase from the damages done by October,

2005, Kashmir earthquake, devastating Pakistan flood damages of August, 2010,global economic recession, energy crisis and the war against terror had furtherdevastated the economy and stunted growth. There is a strong correlation betweenGNP and energy consumption and economic growth. The energy-out put ratios for anumber country also show common trend that till gaining industrial maturity energy-output ratios, goes up in the early stages of economic growth that declines slightlyand ultimately settles down considerably. The considerable increase may beattributed to industrialization, urbanization and substitution of commercial for noncommercial fuel. Researches show that energy saving in the developing countriescan not be achieved unless GNP is proportionately reduced pari passu with energyconsumption. Jamal Nasir, writes in the daily Dawn, on Oct.10, 2011, that power

shortages are believed to be the biggest constraint to growth costing the economy 3-4 percent current addition of 3000MW in national grid, and many new projects tocome on line next year.

6. Energy Crisis in PakistanEnergy is life line for economic growth of any country. Energy is the propeller ofindustrial and agricultural sector. The energy mix supply indicates that we use 43%of energy generated by oil, 38% from natural gas and 10% HNP, and coal just 5%.Despite having fourth largest coal reserve in the world we are still importing over 2.5million tons on annual basis. The gas reserve is unfortunately depleting by dint ofthat power shortage is expected to be little over 5250MW by 2010. Gas and energyshortages are attributed to shutting down certain businesses. Pakistan current(2011), capacity is around 21000MW of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of

y = 15.563x2 - 1775.5x + 7950

R = 0.9299

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

1947

1961

1972

1990

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

Energy deficit (1947-2050) in MW based on the existing

firm supply of 19855 MW without line losses


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rest is thermal fueled primarily by gas and oil. Per capita energy consumption ofPakistan is estimated 14million BTU (=0.0003528ktoe=4103.4kwh=4.1034mwh=2.57544boe ) to put it in perspective the worldaverage per capita energy use is about 65million BTU (=1.91*107Wh = 19.055 MWH=0.001638ktoe=11.9574boe=19051.50KWH= 6.86*10

10Joul =6.86*10

10Watt) and the American

average of 352 MBTU (= 0088704ktoe = 64.75392boe = 103171.2kwh).Energy access in Pakistan is only 60% and 40% of the Pakistani households aredeprived from energy on the other hand renewable energy resources such as hydro,wind, solar are perhaps underutilized and under developed today as Pakistan hasample potential to exploit these resources.The installed capacity (2011) is 21000MW, and the dependable capacity is19855MW having thermal: hydel ration of 71:29, and break up is as under:

S.No Power producer Hydel (MW) Thermal(MW) Total (MW)

1 WAPDA 6461 4811 112722 KESC 1756 17563 IPPs 75104 PAEC 462 462

Total 6461 14539 21000

Table:9, Pakistan Company wise Energy Sources

Category wise installed capacity is as under:S.No Category Capacity (MW) Percentage1 Fossil Fuel 14077 67.03%2 Hydro 6461 30.77%3 Nuclear 462 2.20%

Total 21000 100Table:10, Pakistan Energy Supply Mix

Hydel electricity generated by WAPDA varies between two extremes i.e. between2414 MW and 6761MW depending upon the hydrological parameters during the timeseries of hydrological year.

Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisisReal problems

Non construction of hydro-electric dam after Tarbela (1965) Rising up of oil prices after Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, Politicizing IPPs,

Non exploiting existing coal and gas reserves Non exploration of potential hydel project sites Establishment of Nuclear Power Plant and NSG limitations,

Import of energy and geo-political condition, Political cases against IPPs and RPPs. Import of gas from Iran and Tajikistan (CASA-100) and international politics. Political instability in the country.

Strategies to cope up electricity Crisis

Establishment of IPPs(Imported Power Plants) after 1993,


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Hiring Rental Power Plants (RPPs) including Power ship from Turkey- a costlysolution.

Import of electricity from Tajikistan, Import of gas from Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan Construction of Nuclear Power plant-Chashma-II,III & IV

Speeding up construction of Thar Coal Power Plant Exploiting the hydel resources Reversing the thermal: hydel ratio. Hammering out political difference for construction of more dams. Finalization of negotiation for funding the identified and feasible hydel

projects. Capacity building of power companies to overcome line losses problems etc. The wattage of per capita energy consumption should be in line with the world

average that should be increased gradually.

7.GILGIT-BALTISTANGilgit-Baltistan is one of the defacto provinces of Pakistan.Gilgit-Baltistans population during 1980 census was 870346 and according to 1998census it was 970347 after that no census has been carried out, hence keeping the1.5504% growth rate the estimated population is 1883410. Over all area of GilgitBaltistan is 72971 sq.Km, which is equivalent to Khyber-Pakhtonkhwa province ofPakistan and equivalent to Netherland,Gilgit-Baltistan comprises of seven districts namely, Gilgit, Ghizer, Hunza/Nagar,Diamer, Astore, Skardu and Ghanche. Gilgit-Baltistan is administratively divided intotwo divisions which, in turn, are divided into seven districts, including the twoBaltistan districts of Skardu and Ghanche, and the five Gilgit districts of Gilgit,Ghizer, Diamer, Astore, and Hunza-Nagar. The main political centers are the townsof Gilgit and Skardu.

Division District Area(km)

Population(1998)

Population(Estimated)

(2011)

Headquarters

Baltistan Ghanche 9,400 88,366 188341 Khaplu

Skardu 18,000 214,848 470852 Skardu

Gilgit Gilgit 19292 383,324 320180 Gilgit

Diamir 10,936 131,925 282511 Chilas

Ghizar 9,635 120,218 263677 Gahkuch

Astore 8,657 71,666 150673 Gorikot

Hunza-Nagar

8000 207175 Aliabad,Sikandarabad

Gilgit-Baltistantotals

7districts

72,971 970,347 18,83,408 Gilgit

Table: 11, District wise Population of Gilgit-Baltistan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skardu_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanche_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghizer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astore_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skarduhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanche_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanche_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khapluhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khapluhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skardu_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skarduhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skarduhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghizer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gahkuchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gahkuchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astore_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astore_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorikothttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorikothttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliabadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikandarabadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikandarabadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliabadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorikothttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astore_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gahkuchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghizer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skarduhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skardu_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khapluhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanche_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skarduhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunza-Nagar_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astore_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghizer_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanche_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skardu_Districthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltistan


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Fig: 20, Gilgit-Baltistan, showing Population, administrative set up and area

8. Energy Demand of Gilgit-BaltistanGilgit -Baltistan has not been connected to the national grid as yet, despite havingenormous potential of hydroelectricity. Keeping the natural terrain and waterresources in view, the renewable cheap energy can easily be harnessed, that can betransmitted to national grid at reasonable costs. The run off water can not onlyproduce hydroelectricity but they can also prolong the aging life of Tarbela that isperpetually being silted up. Construction of Kalabgh dam at the down stream ofTarbela has also been an apple of discord among political parties and provinces thatis indeed a hard nut to crack. Sind and Baluchistan provinces have their reservationsover water right issues and the Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa has objections over water

logging and inundation of patches of its fertile fields, in deed the Manningsroughness factor always pinches the apprehensions of technical experts of theprovince. Oil and gas reserves are depleting and the coal reserve of Thar is notbeing utilized to its full capacity, sources of other renewable energies do not fulfill theenergy demand of the country so the only option left is to generate electricity throughharnessing the potential sites of Gilgit-Baltistan. The identified potential of Gilgit-Bltistan is 60,000 MW. Federal Government has kicked off the physical work onDiamer-Basha dam having power capacity of 4500MW, and construction of Bunjidam having generation capacity of 7500MW is in the pipeline where as 12MWSatpara dam project and 28MW Nalter projects have been completed. Constructionof all financially viable and technically feasible hydropower schemes of Gilgit-

Baltistan should be initiated to compensate the energy shortage of the country that issyphoning off hundreds of thousands of dollar in importing furnace oil etc.

19292 1404111772 8000 5400

211246000

320180

282511

263677

207175

150673

470852

188341

12 2

1 1

43

1

34

2 2

54

8 8 8

6 6

30

14

1 1 1 1 1 1 10

5

10

15

20

25

30

350

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Gilgit Diamer Ghizer Hunza/Nagar Astore Skardu GancheGilgit-Baltistan at a glance

Area Population Sub Div Tehsil U.Council M.C.


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Gilgit-Baltistan has the water reservoir having identified potential sites of producing60, 000 MW of hydroelectricity due to glacial deposits, run off of Indus and itstributaries. Out of 60,000 MW, 40,000MW can be generated through runoff riverwater while remaining 20, 000MW can be constructed on tributaries of Shyok, Indus,

Shigar, Hunza,Ghizer and Astore rivers. Due to financial constraints and nonestablishment of heavy industries the per capita energy consumption is on lower sidethat is depicted in the following histogram.

Installed Capacity Per Capita (kW per thousand)

Fig: 21, GB per capita energy consumption& Comparison with National Standard.

Table: 12, Hydropower Projects in GILGIT-BALTISTAN (2011)

Project Location Capacity(MW)

Completiondate

Under 50 MW:

In operation 111.732

Under construction 31.5

Projects in ADP 33.8

Planned (2016) 266.3

Total MW 443.332

National Major Projects:

Skardu ShigarRiver/Skardu

4,000 -

Diamer/Bhasha Indus/Diamer 4,500 2019-2020

Bunji Indus/Gilgit 7,300 2019-2020

Yulbo Indus/Skardu 3,000 -

Rakhiot Indus river 670 -

Tangus Indus river 625 -

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Gilgit

Skardu

Ghizer

Diamer

Astore

Ghanche

GB

Pakistan

Installed capacity per capita(kW per thousand)

Ins talled capacity per capita (kW per thousand)


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Altit Hunza river 250 -

DojianTangusGhowari

HarpoBashoShagharthangHanzelSalling/YougoTormik

AstoreIndus RiverShyoke River

Indus RiverBashoKachoraGhizer RiverShyok RiverIndus River

353500

30

302830

400040002457

-

Total NationalProjects (MW)

40,000

Table: 13, GB, identified hydroelectricity sites and capacities.

Fig:22, GB, District wise firm energy

As hydel energy is dependent on stream flow, the percentile discharges fluctuatesduring its time series, so the plant capacity is badly affected during lean period that

has to be supplemented by thermal energy. Total installed capacity of Gilgit-Baltistanis 117.85 MW out of which 14.32 MW is thermal energy.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

Gilgit H/Nagar Ghizer Diamer Astore Skardu Ghanche

Commercial Energy Capacity of Gilgit-Baltistan

(Hydel/Thermal/Total) in MW


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Fig: 23, Region wise installed capacity of energy

Gilgit region has the total capacity of 65.84MW, Diamer 21.16MW, where as Baltistanregion has gross capacity of 30.85MW.

9. Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Forecast

Year

ProjectedPopulationPn=(1+r)^t*po(Exponentialgrowth)

EnergyDemand (MW), @(0.124)KW/Capita/day(0.000124) MW/capita

EnergyDemand (MW), @(0.2)KW/Capita/day(0.0002) MW/capita

Deficitas perResidential124W/c/d

1980 870346 107.92 174.07 -97.92

1981 898571 111.42 179.71 -101.42

1982 927712 115.04 185.54 -105.04

1983 957798 118.77 191.56 -108.77

1984 988859 122.62 197.77 -112.62

1985 1020928 126.60 204.19 -86.60

1986 1054036 130.70 210.81 -90.70

1987 1088219 134.94 217.64 -94.94

1988 1123510 139.32 224.70 -99.32

1989 1159945 143.83 231.99 -103.83

1990 1197562 148.50 239.51 -108.501991 1236399 153.31 247.28 -113.31

1992 1276496 158.29 255.30 -118.29

1993 1317892 163.42 263.58 -123.42

1994 1360632 168.72 272.13 -128.72

1995 1404757 174.19 280.95 -134.19

1996 1450313 179.84 290.06 -105.84

1997 1497347 185.67 299.47 -111.67

1998 1545906 191.69 309.18 -117.69

1999 1569567 194.63 313.91 -120.63

2000 1593591 197.61 318.72 -123.61

2001 1617983 200.63 323.60 -126.632002 1642748 203.70 328.55 -129.70

58.32

18.74

26.47

7.522.42 4.38

65.84

21.16

30.85

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Gilgit Region Diamer Region Baltistan Region

Region Wise Energy Capacity of Gilgit-Baltistan

(Hydel/Thermal/Total)(MW)


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2003 1667891 206.82 333.58 -132.82

2004 1693420 209.98 338.68 -135.98

2005 1719340 213.20 343.87 -139.20

2006 1745656 216.46 349.13 -142.46

2007 1772375 219.77 354.47 -145.77

2008 1799503 223.14 359.90 -149.142009 1827046 226.55 365.41 -152.55

2010 1855011 230.02 371.00 -156.02

2011 1883404 233.54 376.68 -159.54

Table: 14, Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand and Deficit Calculation (1980-2011)

Fig: 24, GB Energy supply and demand scenario

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

2044

2048

MWs

Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Scenario

@ 124W,200W,302W,6082W/c/d Vs Firms Supply

(1980-2050)


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Fig: 25, GB Demand Supply histogram

As 95% of energy consumers are residential utilization so the per capita energyconsumption has been taken as 124Watt/capita/day. Keeping that unprecedentedwattage the deficiency during 2011 is 159.54MW.

Fig: 26, Blue print of energy in GB based on 200W/C/D

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Vs Firm Supply

@ 124 Watt /capita/day (1998-2011)

43.54

13.64 8.66 14.36 6.822.95

7.9

72.8560.06 55.37

98.68

39.65 34.70 43.69

-29.31-46.42 -46.71

-84.32

-32.85-11.75

-35.79

-100

-50

0

50

100

150


Chemistry of Distt wise Energy(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of

2011 based on 200Watt per capita per day.


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:


10. Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis

Real problems Financial constraints in construction of hydro power plants, Lack of capacity of departments Non linkage with the national grid line, Rising of oil prices Non existence of gas lines Geographical location Geo-political limitations. Non industrialization, Meager potential of energy consumption. Less revenue receipt due to lower load factor for repayment to the IPPs.

43.5413.64 8.66 14.36 6.8

22.957.90

98.94 87.30 81.48

145.49

58.20 46.5664.02

-55.40-73.66 -72.82

-131.13

-51.40-23.61

-56.12

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200


Blue Print of Distt wise Energy as per World

Average(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of 2011

based on 302Watt per capita per day.

43.54 13.64 8.66 14.36 6.8 22.95 7.90

206.42 177.92165.37

295.11

118.23 97.56 130.12

-162.88 -164.28 -156.71

-280.75

-111.43 -74.61 -122.22

-400

-200

0

200

400


Blue Print of Distt wise Energy As Per Pakistan

Average(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of 2011

based on 608.2Watt per capita per day.


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Affordable energy cost for the consumers in case of power purchased fromIPPs.

GOP may not permit any subsidy under present policy. Non interconnection of GB with the national grid. NEPRAs role in GB. Capacity building of the power utility. Tendency of high electricity pilferage.

Strategies to cope up electricity Crisis

An integrated energy policy of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) should be formulated,

Capacity building of Gilgit-Baltistan Water and Power department toinvestigate new potential sites, construction of hydel stations and to overcomeline losses problems etc.

GB should be linked up with the national grid,

GB government should initiate dialogue with other provinces for selling out thesurplus energy, as now the energy is a provincial subject.

Construction of peak hour storage tanks

Pumping of water back in to the storage tank during peak hour

Enforcement of efficient energy usage laws

Construction of energy efficient houses and offices

Conducting feasibility study for ferreting out the ways and means ofconstructing inflatable dams on all rivers of Gilgit-Baltistan,

Conducting feasibility study to exploit renewable energy resources like wind,solar, geothermal, biomass etc.

Establishment of regional grid in Gilgit-Baltistan to interlink all the powerpotential sites.

Investment in the field of Captive Power & Energy Banking. Industry andhydro power development may take place simultaneously.

The main purpose to club hydro power development with other industrieswould enable the private investors to offer affordable tariff.

Power Projects through IPPs would be viablefor mega projects on Indus River through PPIB/WAPDA.

Commencement of physical work on high voltage transmission line byWAPDA for interconnection to the national grid may take place

simultaneously,


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Project through IPPs can be developed simultaneously at the identified sitesnear Bunji and Diamar-Basha projects to supply power to WAPDA duringimplementation of these vital projects.

Rigorous planning should be made to provide energy wattage equivalent to

world average i.e. 302watt /capita/day for establishment of industries in Gilgit-Baltistan.

In order to optimize the capacities of all existing hydroelectric power stationspenstock pipes should be laid in series instead of parallel.

During summer time there is possibility of constructing hydel station at eachand every stream of Gilgit-Baltistan, at nominal construction cost ofUS$2.0million/MW, and an average production cost of 3-4 US cent per unit(kwh), that should be exploited and other stations having muddy watercontaining silt and sand particles that are detrimental for safety of turbinerunner, shaft, etc. should be closed.

11. ConclusionConsumption of energy indicates the economic growth. Population is growingand energy generation rate is lagging behind the population growth rate,consequently there are resource constraints. Existing both conventional andnon conventional energy resources should be exploited and dependency ofthermal energy generation should be minimized. Pakistan despite havingenormous hydel potential in Gilgit-Baltistan(60,000MW) and Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa(18698MW), and coal reserves (50,000 MW), located in

Tharparkar Sind, is still dependent on costly and environmentally unfeasibleand economically un viable, less lucrative for investment ,furnace oil, thatdefective planning has to be streamlined while formulating energy policy.Energy shortage is on one side causing unrest and even creating law andorder situation and on the other side is badly affecting the economic growth.The capital cost for construction of hydro electricity is 2.3-2.5US$/kwh, andcost of power generation is nominal-3-4US cents/kwh, capital cost of gas is 3-5 US$/kwh and generation cost is 7-8US$/kwh, capital cost of furnace oil is1.5-1.6US$/kwh but the cost to be incurred on power generation is 9-10US$/kwh, but coal gasified power capital cost is only 1US$/kwh and powerproduction cost will be 2-3 US cents/kwh.

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