Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC National Hurricane Center ... · Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida JANUARY 1984 United States Departlrent of

NOM Technical MeIrorandum NWS NHC

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABUIATION

ATIANrIC TROPICAL CYCLONFS 1983

Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC

National Hurricane Center

Miami, Florida

JANUARY 1984

United States Departlrent of COOIrerce/National Oceanic & AtIrospheric Administration/National Weather Service

INIRODUCI'ION

This is the tenth re[X>rt of an annual series prepared by the

National Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of surmarized data

on Atlfffitic tropical cyclones. It will not duplicate the narrative overview

of the hurricane season and the description of individual stoD11S, which will

continue to be published in the Monthl y ~ther Review.

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service I

ffi3.terials have been furnished by the NOM Satellite Field Service Station

Miami Office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,

all Hurricanes). A new feature in this report is the inclusion of Proba-

bility Forecasts issued with advisories on landfalling United States

tropical stonns and hurricanes

O~IVE FO~ TEx:::HNI QUFS

The folla.ving tropical cyclone prediction m::Jdels were used at the

National Hurricnae Center for forecasting m:Jtion on an operational basis:

1.

NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968). A step.vise screening

regression m:x1el using predictors derived fran the current

and 24-hour old 1000, 700, and 500 mb data, and includes

persistence during the early forecast periods

2.

SANBAR (Sanders and Burpee, 1968). A filtered barotropic

IOOdel using input data derived iran the 1000 to 100 mb

pressure weighted winds. The m:>del requires use of "bogus"

data in data-void areas. The system was Irodified by Pike

1972) so that the initial wind field near the storm would

conform to the current storm mJtion.

3.

HURRAN (Hope and NeUIIBnn, 1970). An analog system using as

a data base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical stOnYlS and

hurricanes dating back to 1886.

4. CLIPER (Neunann, 1972). Stepwise multiple screening regression

using the predictors derived frail clinatology an persistence.

5.

NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A mJdified stepNise

multiple screening regression system which combines the NHC-67

concept and the CLIPER system into a single mJdel

6. NBC-73 (Neurrann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the

NHC-72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and MaS (nroel

output statistics) nethods to introduce ~ (National Meteoro-

logical Center) nUlrerical prognostic data into the prediction

equations.

7 NtvC MFM MODEL (Hovernale, 1975). A ten-level baroclinic m)(1el

which uses a nDving fine ~sh (MFM) grid nested within the

coarser ~ fixed grid primitive equation (PE) nroel.

In addition, o~rational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity

changes in knots at l2-hourly intervals out to 72 hours are generated by a

pr~ram naIIffi SHlFOR (~tatistical !!urricane Intensity E:Qgcasts). Generation

of the forecast equations was done by multiple screening regression techniques

using historical tropical cyclone data as input. Results over the past

several years have sha..m that SHlFOR and official intensity forecasts have

canparable skill scores.

The National Hurricnae Center uses the above ITr::>dels as guidance

The hurricane forecaster also makesin the formulation of its forecasts.

extensive use of analyses and prognoses prcx1uced by NM:::: and RCIM (Regional

Center for Tropical Meteorology) in Miami

VERIFICATION

Verification statistics for the 1983 season are shown in Table 1.

2

The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the operational

initial positia1 and that deten11ined during post analysi-,? (best track position)

The forecast displacement error is the vector difference between the forecast

displacement and the actual displacement computed fram best-track positions.

Landfall prediction errors for the official forecasts are given in Tables 2a

and 2b. These are defined as the distance fran the predicted landfall point,

na.de 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point. In

cases where a stann either crossed an island or nade landfall when predicted

to relIain offshore, the error was designated as tre distance fran the landfall

point to the nearest point on the forecast track.

Tropical cyclone warning lead tbres for United States landfalling

stO:l:1nS are given in Table 3a. A surmary of warning lead tiIrEs for the period

1970-1983 for hurricanes only and for both tropical storms and hurricanes is

given in Table 3b. The length of tine between the issuance of tile warnings

and the time that the center crossed the cmst, as determined iran the "best"

track", was taken as the warning lead tirre. A more complete discussion of

the verification of tropical cyclone warning lead tlires, as well as verifi-

cations for individual storms fram 1970-1977, can be found in the 1977

Arulual Data and Verification Tabulation (Lawrence, Hebert, and Staff, 1979).

DATA S1:.M-1ARIFS~-

A summary of 1983 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is

given in Table 4. Tracks of 1983 nanro stonns are shown in Figure 1

The best track, initial, and forecast positions for the 1983

storms are in Table 5, along with initial position and forecast errors, and

sto:rrn average errors

1

Table 6 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations

used operationally at the National Hurricane Center duriJ:}g 1983. Fixes are

in chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance

penetrations, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar. The legend

precedes the initial table.

Supplenentary Vortex Data Messages which replaced Vortex Profi;les

in the 1977 Annual Data Tabulation are given in Table 7. A diagram of the

paths flown in obtaining these Data Messages is given in Figure 2. The

symbolic cooe for interpreting the Data Messages is given as Appendix A,

Table 8 is an aerial reconnaissance sUImary for the 1983 season.

Graphs of the lowest central pressure versus tine for 1983 tropical

cyclones are presented in Figure 3.

Daily GOES-5 satellite photographs of 1983 nanro tropical cyclones

are sh~ in Figure 4.

Appendix B gives the probability forecas~s and forecast tracks

issued for 1983 1andfa11ing United States tropical storms and hurricanes.

A~.E[x;EMENTS

Main contributors were: Mr. Frank Marques who helped list the

center fixes in chronological order; Mr. Miles Lawrence, who computed the

verification statistics; f'ils Joan David, who drafted the track chart and

pressure/tilre graphs; and Mrs. Teresa Barker, who typed the tables, and

nEnuscript.

4

REFERENCES

Hope, J. R., and C. J. NeurrBnn, 1970: "An Operational Technique forRelating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to PastTracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. ~8, No. 23, pp. 925-933.

Hoverna1e, J. B., andR. E. Livezey, 1977: "Three-YearPerfonIBnceCharacteristics of the t'M::: Hurricane Mcde1," Preprint§ .11 thTechni~l C~~~erence on HU!:~!cane~ ~ Tropical Meteorology ,Miami Beach, Arner. Meteor. Soc., pp. 122-125.

lawrence, M. B., P. J. Hebert, and Staff, NHC, 1979: "Annual !Eta andVerificaton Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1977,"~ Technical MEm:>randUl!! M'v'S NHC-8, 46 pp.

Miller,

B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique forForecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methoos," funthlyWeather B~, Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548.

Neum:mn, C. J., 1972: "An Alternative to the HURRAN Tropical CycloneForecast System," ~ Technical MeIr¥Jrandurn NWS SR-62, 24 pp.

--, J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical Methodof Canbining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone PredictionSystems," roM Technical ~randum NWS S~-63, 32 pp.

--, and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Predictionof Tropical Cyclone Motion (NHC- 73) ," NQM Tecl-Ulical Merroran~~NWS SR-69, 34 pp.

--, 1979: "A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Modelsfor the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion," NOM Tech!l~~lnerorandum NWS NHC-ll, 26 pp.

Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction byAdjustJrent of the Initial Wind Field," NOAA Technical Mem:)randurnNWS SR-66.16 pp.

SanderR, F., anrl R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experlirents in Barotropic Hurricane'l'rack Forecasting," Journal £f Appli~ Meteorology, Vol. 7, No.3,pp. 313-323.

Carter, T. Michael, 1983: "Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions:A User I s Guide for Local ~ision Makers," NOM National Weather

Service Headquarters, 25 pp.

5

LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND APPENDICES

Figure 1. Tracks of 1983 tropical cyclones.

Figure 2a.

Figure 2b.

Flight pattern" A" flown in obtaining Supplarentary Vortex DataMessages.

Flight Pattern "A" (rmified) flcy..m in obtaining SupplarentaryVortex Data Messages.

Figure 3. Lowest pressure vs. time, 1983 tropical cyclones.

Figure 4. Daily satellite photographs of 1983 tropical cyclones.

Table 1. Verification of 1983 tropical stonn and hurricane forecasts.Figures in parentheses are the number of cases.

Table 2a. Landfall prediction errors for 1983 tropical stonllS and hurricanes.

Table .2b. Fourteen-year sUImIary of errors in tiE prediction of the point oflandfall of Atlantic tropical StOnllS and hurricanes duriny theperiod 1970-1983.

Table 3a. Warning lead times for 1983 landfalling United States tropicalstorms and hurricanes.

Table 3b. Surmary of warning lead tine for hurricanes only and all tropicalcyclones for the period 1970-1983.

4. Summary of 1983 tropical cyclone statistics.

5.

Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial positionerror and forecast errors for 1983 tropical cyclones.

Table 6. Center fix paB.i:tiom and intensity evaluations for 1983 tropicalcyclones.

Table 7. SupplerTEntary Vortex Data Messages, 1983 Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Appendix A. Code for SupplenEntary Vortex Data Messages of Table 7.

Table 8. Tropical cyclone reconnaissance sUlm1ary for 1983 hurric~e season.

Appendix B. Probability Forecasts issued for 1983 landfalling United StatesTroJ?ical StOl1T1S and Hurricanes.

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1431 GMT 8/17/83978 MB

14.e1 GMT 8/18/8397.e MB

1431 GMT 8/25/831.013 MB

16.0.0 GMT 8/23/831.012 MB

17.01 GMT 8/24/831.011 MBBARRY

16~1 GMT 8/28/83986 MB

17~1 GMT 8/26/831~11 MB

17~1 GMT 8/27/831~~2 MB

FIGURE 4. DAILY SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS OF 1983 TROPICAL CYCLONES.

12

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1831 GMT 9/3~/831.015 MB

2~~1 GMT 1~/1/831~18 MB

Figure 4 continued.

13

Table 1. Verification of 1983 tropical stann aI¥l hurricane forecasts.

Disp1a<BlEI1t eJ:rorS ( n.mi. )Forecast ~ic:xl ( lX>Urs )12 24 48Technique

InitialIX>Si tionerror (n.mi.) 72

10(43)

41(41

83(31

203(16)

415(9)

Official(I of cases)

NfK:: 67 11(40)

46(38)

101(30)

320(16)

770(9)

NEK:: 72 11(40)

37(38)

84(30 )

215(16)

585(9)

HURRAN 9(24)

51(31

137

(IS)359(9)

988(4)

CLIPER 10(43)

41(41

89(31)

191(16)

461(9)

l'H:: 7 3 11(19)

47(18)

93(13)

189(6)

442(4)

SANMR 11(20)

45(19)

83(14)

223(6)

390(3)

13(8)

MFM 54(8)

95(5)

166(2)

-(0)

i,+;

14

Table 2a..

IaOOfal1 prediction errors for 1983 tropical stoDlE am hurrimnes.

Following is a list of landfall prediction errors for tropical stOD11S and hurricanesduring 1983. Each error represents the distance (in nautical miles) fran the pre-dicted landfall l;X)int determined fran the "Official" forecast issued 24 hours priorto landfall to the actual landfall l;X)int deternrined fran the Best Track. Onlytropical stOD11S and hurricanes are included. In sare cases the stOIm crossed anisland when predicted to pass offshore. In such cases, the perpendicular distancefran the landfalll;X)int to the forecast track is taken as the landfall predictionerror.

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Iardfall

IBtejTjJre ( z )of

IamfallStann Nal1E

I.aIKlfallForecastError (n.mi.) ~tion aId RelBrks

8/18/07ZALICIA Hurricane 35 25 miles south~st ofGalveston, Texas.

Bl\RRY 8/28/11ZHurricane 83 Mexico -30 miles southof BrC1O'msville, Texas .

(No landfallaJANrAL

9/30/12ZDEAN Tropical Stann 22 Eastern shore ofVirginia, south ofWallops Island.

Table 2b. Fourteen-year SUIIIIarY of errors in the prOOiction of the {X>ints of 1aI¥ifallof Atlantic trq>ical stanIS aId hurricnaes during the ~icxl1970-1983.

unital States Iarxlfalls All IaIx]falls

1983 Mean 24 Hour Landfall PredictionError (number of cases) 29

(2)47(3)

14 year average 1970-1983 38 n.mi.(23)

50 n.mi.(58)

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CycloneNunrer

M:l!Xil1UJII1Sustained wiIxl

(kt)

~tPressure

(MB)

u.s. Danage(Millions of $)

DeatlJS1 IBtes2ClassNaIIe

1

Alicia 15-21 AUGH 100 962 200 21

2 23-29 AUGBarry H 70 986 Minor 1

Chantal 10-15 SEP3 H 65

4 ~an T 27-30 SEP 55 999 Minor

1 T: Tropical Stonn (winds 34-63 knots)

(winds 64 knots or higher)

H:

Hurricane

2The day starts at 0000 GTr.

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LEx:;END FOR TABLE 6

Key to Observational Unit and Resolution

OBSERVAT1CJoW. UNIT

R8:X)nnaissan~

AF AirForre=

N)M Natia1al ~IlCXJra~c arxl At:m>SplJeric J\dministration=

Satellite

OOES-5 ~tiCX1ary ~tional atviromEntal Satellite=

Radar

GI.S-R = G:llveston, Texas National ~theor serviCE Radar

lake C11arles, lDuisiana National ~ther Servi~ RadarI.aI-R =

BIt:wllSVille, Texas N:ltiCX1al ~ther Servi~ Radar~R =

R.EroIJ_mOO

~mai5~

~vigational ~cy ~teJrol<XJical J\ccuracy. (ExaD1;>le -5/5).

Satellite

Classification <:x>nfi~*, location am calfi~**resolution (kIn).

,

visible or infrarro,

*1 = carpletely rertain as to current intensity nmrer usErl.2 = tatpted to vary up or doAJn by 1/2 T or S nmrer.3 = might vary up or doAJn by 1 T or S nunrer, or nvre.

**1 = ~1 defilm eye with certain picture rejistration.2 = ~11 defilm eye with uncertain picture rejistration.3 = ~1 defilm circulation <Enter with certain picture rejistration.4 = ~11 defilm circulation <Enter with ~in picture rejistration.5 = IXX>r1y defilm circulation <Enter with ~ picture rejistration.6 = IXX>r1y defilm circulation <Enter with ~in picture r6Jistration.

(Exanple -1,1, VSBL 1 = classification <X>nfidenCE 1,1cx:ation <X>nfidenCE 1,visible picture with 1 kilaleter resolution.)

= classificatim CX>nfi~ 2, l<x:ation CX)Il£idence 5,infrarErl picture with 8 kilaiEter resolution.)

(Exanple -2,5, m 8

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~~

ON

~--~

~~

~N

~O

NN

~O

~~

~O

N~

~O

N~

~~

~~

OO

OO

N~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

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NN

NN

~~

~~

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3-001--'-'"0

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OO

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~M

OO

MO

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~-O

-~O

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NO

OO

~M

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N~

~-O

~N

~~

~O

O~

~~

~-N

~~

~~

O-M

ON

~~

~~

~O

O---N

OO

O

OO

OO

O

NN

NO

OO

OO

O

"g&I

~C...C0V-D«I

.Q~.-

...I-<0~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

~~

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~oooooo

NN

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0Z>C

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NN

""""""""N"'~

"""'"

34

Table 7. Supplementary vortex messages, 1983 tropical cyclones

ALICIA

URNT12 KMI 161333AF963 0303 ALICIA OB 04 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE80280 80914 80013 82219 1303760276 60916 60012 62219 1303945274 40918 40009 42120 1104930272 30919 30005 32421 1405915271 10921 10002 12421 19021CC2271 C0924 COO02 C2421 161200MF059 07030 AZ27015272 10927 10007 12220 0203230272 30931 30010 32120 0103645270 40933 40012 42319 3602460270 60937 60013 62418 3601780270 80940 80014 82420 0201500270 00943 00014 02420 01014MF036 29030

URNT12 KMIA 161525AF963 0303 ALICIA OB 08 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00253 00924 00015 02416 2801880257 80925 80014 82220 2404060261 60926 60012 62221 2404245265 40927 40009 42221 2704530267 30926 30007 32321 2805315269 10926 '. 10003 12422 29042CC271 C0925 COOOl C2322 161414MF053 20030 AZ27015273 10924 10004 12322 1503430275 30925 30006 32220 1103845278 40927 40011 42219 0904160281 60927 60013 62219 0903480284 80927 80015 82219 1002300287 00926 00016 02219 14012MF041 33045

35

Table 7 continued

ALICIA

URNT12 KMIA 161705AF963 0303 ~LICIA OB 12 MIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00270 00943 00014 02517 0201480269 80939 80013 82319 3302660269 60936 60012 62320 3403945270 40933 40009 42121 3205130270 30930 30007 32321 3403615271 10927 10000 12222 33011CC272 C0926 COOOO C2221 161604

MF051 26045 AZ27015272 10922 10006 12322 1802530271 30920 30009 32221 1904245270 40917 40013 42119 1704560270 60915 60014 62218 1603580270 80912 80015 82316 1703200270 00908 00016 02317 19022MF045 10045

URNT12 KMIA 161903AF963 0303 ALICIA OB 16 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE80282 80927 80013 82220 0004960278 60929 60009 62220 0705645276 40930 40006 42120 0605430274 30930 30003 32421 0504515273 10928 10997 12321 05028CC273 C0927 C0997 C2221 161746

MF056 36060 AZ27015269 10927 10007 12221 2703030267 30925 30009 32220 2403445264 40924 40011 42320 2502360263 60923 60012 62519 2302680/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////

MF034 16030

36

Table 7 continued.

ALICIA

URNT12 KMIA 161945AF963 0303 ALICIA OB 19 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//1/ 8//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////45265 40926 40010 42220 2304130268 30928 30006 32321 2404915270 10928 10003 12321 25045cc272 C0928 C0997 C2321 161845MF049 18030 AZ27015/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////30276 30923 33312 30808 1703345278 40921 43314 40806 1503860279 60919 63316 60706 1303380281 80918 83316 80704 1301900283 00915 03317 01152 13036MF038 05045OUTBOUND LEG FLOWN AT FL 100

URNT12 KMIA 162350 CORAF866 0403 ALICIA OB 05 CORSUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80275 80915 80013 82320 1603860275 60920 60010 62222 1504545275 40924 40006 42323 1504630275 30927 30002 32424 1506015275 10929 10998 12524 14035CC274 C0932 C0991 c2626 162224MF060 09030 Al///15275 10934 10994 12525 0703630274 30938 30005 32323 0105445274 40940 40006 42222 3504960274 60942 60008 62322 3504180274 80947 80010 82422 3503300274 00950 00011 02421 35018MF054 27030

KMIA

37

Table 7 continued.

ALICIA

URNT12 KMIA 170132 CORAF866 0403 ALICIA OB 09 CORSUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00257 00932 00010 02424 2802780261 80932 80010 82523 2602860264 60931 60009 62521 2403145266 40931 40008 42521 2403630268 30931 30004 32222 2404915272 10931 10998 12424 23041CC275 C0933 C0990 c2626 170028MF055 18020 AlIII15277 10933 10002 12323 0906230279 30934 30006 32323 0805445282 40933 40010 42222 1005060285 60933 60011 62323 0803880289 80933 80012 82321 0802700291 00932 00013 02424 11033MF062 36015

KMIA

URNT12 KMIA 170309AF866 0403 ALICIA OB 13 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60281 60943 63145 60906 0303345279 40941 43125 40908 0304030278 30938 33095 30909 0303215277 10936 13034 10909 03032CC275 C0933 C3002 C1310 170201MF045 27035 Al///15275 10930 13067 11010 1903430275 30927 33111 30909 2004245275 40924 43139 40808 1803060275 60921 63146 60707 1703080275 80918 83164 80807 1603200275 00914 03177 00805 16024MF042 09030

38

Tab1e 7 continued.

ALICIA

URNT12 KMIA 170448 CORAF866 0403 ALICIA OB 17 COR!SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00292 00933 03173 00805 1203380289 80935 83162 80808 0904160285 60934 63138 61006 1004245282 40934 43125 41106 1004430280 30934 33097 31007 0804415278 10934 13030 11110 09057CC276 C0935 C3003 C1310 170400MF057 36015 Al///15273 10935 13069 11210 2502130270 30935 33101 30909 2703145269 40935 43125 40908 2503160266 60935 63140 60707 2603780/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF037 18060

KMIA

URNT12 KMIA 170603AF866 0403 ALICIA OB 20 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60266 60933 63133 60808 2603245269 40935 43115 40909 2603430271 30935 33080 31010 2703915274 10935 13027 11310 26036CC276 C0936 c2992 C1410 170501MF039 18030 Al///15277 10932 13093 10808 1604930278 30930 33133 30808 1702845280 40927 43145 40808 1403660281 60926 63147 60707 1304180283 80925 8//// 8//// 1502400285 00922 03178 00804 13029MF049 09015 LAST REPORT ETA KBIX 17/0620Z 08 01-20 TO KMIA

39

Table 7 continued

IV\RRY

URNI'12 KMIA 232355 OOR02AF985 05XX INVEST OB 12SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////45/// 4//// 4//// 4//// /////30/// 3//// 3//// 3//// /////15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////OC266 C0761 COOll C2423 232232MF062 14015 AZ///15263 10761 10014 12523 2402630260 30761 30015 32121 2104145259 40761 40018 42121 2202860255 60761 60018 62222 2202580/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF041 18030

CORO2

KMIA

URNI'12 KMIA 240133 CORAF985 0504 CYCLONE DB 16 CORSUPPLEMENrARY VDRI'EX DATA MESSAGE

00111 01111 0111101111 1111180111 81111 81111 81111 1111160111 61111 61111 61111 1111145111 41111 41111 41111 1111130267 30756 30016 32321 1904615267 10759 10012 12222 18056OC267 C0760 CO010 C2622 240012MF056 05008 AZ31015266 10764 10013 12422 3403730266 30767 30015 32322 3302845266 40769 40016 42422 3501960266 60772 60016 62521 3302280266 80775 80017 82523 3202100266 00779 00017 02523 33015MF037 27015

KMIA

)\j

40

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 240304AF985 0504 CYCLONE OB 20 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00257 00761 00018 02219 2303880258 80759 80018 82220 2202760260 60759 60018 62120 2204845262 40761 40016 42221 2005530265 30763 30015 32424 2903215268 10762 10014 12323 29055CC271 C0763 CO010 C2423 240222MF055 18015 AlIII15274 10764 10014 12423 0903430276 30764 30015 32321 1002645279 40765 40017 42322 1002560111 61111 61111 61111 1111180111 81111 81111 81111 1111100111 01111 01111 01111 11111MF034 36015

URNT12 KMIA 240742AF964 0604 BARRY OB 06 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80269 80779 80018 824// 3300960269 60775 60016 62424 3201845271 40772 40016 42424 3401730272 30770 30015 32322 3202415274 10767 10013 12323 33017CC276 C0765 COOIO C2423 240628MF025 27030 Al///15276 10762 10014 12322 1803030275 30759 30017 32222 1905345275 40756 40017 42222 1603660275 60754 60018 62222 1703580275 80750 80019 82322 1802700275 00746 00019 02320 16016MF053 09030

41

Table 7 continued

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 241020AF964 0604 ~ OB 10 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00260 00765 00020 02220 2003680263 80766 80019 82221 2202760267 60770 60017 62323 2601345269 40769 40017 42323 2601730272 30770 30016 32323 2801415276 10767 10014 12323 20017CC280 C0766 CO011 C2525 240905MFO17 21015 Al///15284 10765 10016 12323 1202830287 30766 30017 32323 1202845290 40766 40018 42322 1002160292 60765 60019 62423 1002080296 80765 80019 82422 1101700298 00765 00019 02323 11016MFO32 36022

URNT12 KMIA 241240AF964 0604 ~ OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00280 00785 00018 02423 3002380279 80781 80018 82424 3202060279 60776 60017 62422 3302045278 40773 40016 42423 3202730277 30772 30013 32424 3202815280 10767 10012 12424 34010CC281 C0765 COOII C2626 241131MF028 27030 Al///15278 10770 10014 12525 3201530278 30773 30014 32525 3102645277 40775 40015 42623 2904160276 60779 60018 62422 3500880276 80782 80018 82424 3401600275 00786 00018 02424 36015MF041 25045

42

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 241635AF963 0704 ~ OB 06 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80282 80786 80018 82420 3502560283 60782 60018 62419 3602845283 40778 40016 42322 36029

30283 30776 30015 32422 3602915283 10773 10013 12523 02026CC281 C0771 COO13 C2523 241505MF032 27035 AZ32015282 10768 10016 12321 1603930282 30766 30017 32221 1603245282 40763 40018 42321 1802760282 60759 60019 62220 1702780281 80756 80020 82319 1702400281 00752 00020 02414 18016MF039 08025

,4'

URNT12 'MIA 241930AF963 0704 BARRY OB 10 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00296 07772 00019 02321 1002580294 80772 80018 82321 1002260291 60772 60017 62421 1202345288 40772 40017 42320 1302730286 30773 30015 32321 1203515283 10775 10013 12322 12031cc281 C0776 CO011 c2423 241752MF037 03005 AZ32015280 10773 10012 12221 1802830277 30773 30015 32220 1803045274 40774 40017 42220 2101260271 60775 60018 62321 1901380268 80775 80018 82321 1902200265 00776 00019 02321 19029MF030 14025

43

Tab1e 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 242031AF963 0704 BARRY OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00282 07761 00019 02320 1703580282 80764 80018 82320 1703760281 60768 60017 62320 1704045281 40771 40016 42220 1803830281 30774 30015 32220 1804115281 10777 10012 12320 16051CC279 C0781 CO011 C2523 242053MF051 06025 AI///15282 10782 10012 12523 0902030282 30786 30013 32422 0302645282 40788 40014 42522 0402460282 60791 60015 62422 0102480282 80796 80016 82421 0102500282 00800 00017 02521 35018MF026 29030

URNT12 KMIA 250148AF866 0704 BARRY OB 07 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00287 00802 00016 02523 0502480286 80798 80016 82522 0202160285 60795 60015 62423 0202345284 40792 40014 42423 0202230283 30790 30012 32423 0102215282 10787 10011 12424 01011cc282 C0784 CO011 C2524 242348MF024 31100 Al///15281 10781 10014 12323 1903530282 30779 30015 32323 1702745283 40777 40016 42322 1701860282 60774 60017 62322 1802380282 80771 80018 82321 1701900282 00766 00019 02421 18016MF035 09015

l1LL

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 250334AF866 0804 ~ OB 13 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00298 00785 00018 02422 1002780295 80785 80018 82422 0902460292 60785 60016 62423 0802545288 40783 40015 42423 1002930286 30784 30014 32423 1103415285 10785 10013 12423 12027cc281 C0789 CO012 C2524 250206MF034 36030 AZ///15279 10789 10013 12423 2900430276 30790 30015 32423 2800945274 40790 40015 42322 2200560271 60790 60017 62322 20018

80269 80790 80017 82322 2500900265 00790 00018 02221 26017MF018 18060

URNTI2 KMIA 250541AF866 0804 BARRY OB 19 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00282 00772 00018 02421 1702480282 80776 80018 82423 1502660282 60779 60017 62423 1502745282 40782 40016 42423 1503030282 30786 30015 32424 1403015282 10788 10015 12424 15024CC280 C0795 COO12 C2525 250423MF030 09030 AZ///15280 10799 10011 12523 0101530281 30801 30013 32423 0202245280 40804 40014 42423 3602460/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF024 27045POSITION W OF 45NM PT OVR LAND LAST REPORT OBS 01-19 TO KMIA.ETA KBIX 25/0710Z

45

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 251108 CORAF969 0904 BARRY OB 06 COR KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00297 00801 00011 02623 1001780293 80801 80011 82621 1102360290 60801 60010 62524 1101745287 40801 40009 42624 1302530285 30802 30007 32624 1501615282 10802 10007 12524 17020CC279 C0802 COO07 C2525 250815MF025 01045 Al///15277 10801 10010 12524 1801330277 30799 30011 32524 1802245277 40796 40011 42624 1802560276 60793 60011 62523 1701980277 80790 80008 82522 1502700279 00785 00012 02521 13012MF025 09045CENTER APPEARS TO BE OVR LAND AT 1045

URNT12 KMIA 261945AF972 1204 ~ OB 07 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////45/// 4//// 4//// 4//// /////30/// 3//// 3//// 3//// /////15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////CC252 c0879 COO13 C2522 261830MFO17 36080 Al///15252 10878 10013 12622 1701330257 30878 30013 32522 1301345260 40879 40013 42522 1501560263 60879 60013 62622 1301280265 80879 80012 82623 1401700269 00878 00013 02623 14016

46

Table 7 continued

BARRY

URNTI2 KMIA 262218AF972 1204 6A5RY 06 10 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00251 00897 00014 02522 3001180251 80893 80014 82522 3201560251 60889 60013 62622 3202045252 40887 40012 42422 3502730252 30884 30012 32421 3302015257 10882 10012 12421 26004CC257 c0881 COOII C2522 262042MF027 27045 Al///15257 10876 10013 12422 1501630257 30873 30013 32421 1701745257 40871 40014 42421 1602060257 60868 60014 62521 1801680257 80864 80014 82522 1301100257 00861 00015 02521 15012MF020 09045

URNT12 KMIA 270021AF972 1204 BARRY OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00274 00883 00013 02622 1301780270 80881 80013 82622 1402060267 60881 60013 62522 1501845264 40882 40012 42522 1401130261 30885 30011 32522 1300915/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////CC252 C0885 COOll C2521 262302 if

MF020 36080 Al///15250 10885 10012 12321 2101430245 30884 30012 32421 2401645243 40884 40012 42521 2800560241 60885 60013 62521 2701080237 80885 80013 82521 2100900234 00885 00013 02521 09010MFO16 18030BROAD AREA OF CALM SFC WND FROM 35-100NM TO S OF CNTR

47

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 270300AF972 1204 BARRY OB 18 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00252 00870 00013 02522 1101680252 80874 80013 82421 1800960252 60876 60013 62421 1801245251 40879 40013 42421 1402130251 30883 30013 32322 1601715250 10887 10012 12321 16013CC250 C0891 COO09 C2422 270215MF028 09020 AlIII15253 10891 10011 12322 0900930255 30892 30011 32522 1001645257 40892 40012 42522 1201860260 60892 60012 62522 1202080264 80891 80012 82523 1402300267 00891 00014 02523 13031MF031 02100

URNT12 KMIA 270803AF985 1304 ~ OB 04 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00271 00904 00014 02524 1002480266 80905 80013 82623 0902260262 60905 60012 62523 0802645259 40905 40011 42524 0803030256 30905 30010 32525 03040151/1 111/1 111/1 111/1 11111CC253 C0905 COO09 C2523 270625MF040 36018 AZ27015257 10905 10011 12424 1103630261 30904 30012 32423 1201945111 41111 41111 41111 1111160267 60904 60012 62422 1402680111 81111 81111 81111 1111100271 00904 00013 02423 13028MF036 36015

48

Tab1e 7 continued

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 271003AF985 1304 BARRY OB 08 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80270 80908 80012 82524 1202860267 60909 60012 62523 1003045263 40911 40011 42524 0802830259 30911 30010 32524 0602615257 10910 1//// 12524 07012CC256 C0907 COO09 C2524 270827MF030 35060 AZ27015257 10904 10010 12525 1801430257 30902 30010 32524 1702145257 40900 40011 42524 1702460256 60897 60012 62424 1602180256 80892 80013 82523 1502300255 00888 00013 02522 16023MF024 09045

URNTI2 KMIA 271320AF963 1404 BARRY OB 04 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60268 60914 60011 62222 1303745266 40916 40011 42322 1402330262 30915 30009 32222 1002015260 10915 10010 12221 99005CC258 C0914 COO09 C2322 271146MF037 01060 AZ26015256 10914 10010 12322 22028

30253 30913 30012 32320 1902045251 40914 40012 42220 1902260248 60914 60012 62220 2101280245 80914 80013 82318 2001000242 00914 00014 02219 99005MF028 16015

49

Table 7 continued

BARRY

,.URNT12 KMIA 271544AF963 1404 ~ OB 08 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00259 00906 00013 02322 1802380269 80909 80012 82420 1801960260 60912 60012 62421 1902345261 40915 40012 42422 1902030261 30917 30011 32323 1802315261 10920 10009 12523 17016cc260 C0921 COO09 C2523 271433MF023 08025 AZ26015/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /1///30264 30920 38006 31715 1001445/11 4/111 41111 41111 /1/1160268 60917 63179 60902 0902280271 80915 83186 80900 0901700274 00913 03195 00851 09020MFI/I 1//1/ .

OUT BOUND OBS MISSING DUE TO CLIMB

URNTI2 KMIA 271948AF977 1504 BARRY OB 05 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

00277 00928 00019 02524 0702780274 80928 80014 82624 1101360271 60930 60013 62624 0701445268 40929 40013 42624 07017

30267 30928 30012 32624 0701415258 10927 10007 12524 17018CC256 C0932 COO02 C2623 271829

MF055 36010 AlIII151/1 111/1 1IIII 1IIII IIIII30251 30931 32418 31715 2702645248 40931 42508 41814 2701860245 60931 62501 61614 2700780242 80930 82513 81813 2601000239 00930 02522 01714 24016MF026 18030

50

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 272200AF977 1504 BARRY OB 09 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY-.VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00257 00915 02514 01715 1501780257 80917 82509 81815 1402060257 60921 62501 61815 1501545256 40923 42493 41816 1701930256 30926 32488 31916 1602415257 10932 12466 12515 10033CC256 C0934 c2428 C2515 272036MF033 09015 AZIII15//1 111/1 111/1 1/1/1 1111130255 30937 32456 31917 0304145257 40943 42473 41717 3603660257 60945 62490 61814 0203680257 80948 82499 81717 01Q3400255 00952 02507 01916 01028MF041 27030

URNT12 KMIA 280029AF977 1504 BARRY OB 13 KMIA--SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00239 00932 02509 01812 2401580242 80935 82509 81813 2201560246 60937 62503 61714 2101945248 40937 42498 41616 2302130251 30937 32491 31815 2002815252 10938 12451 11916 18028CC257 C0940 C0999 C2423 272304MF066 09005 Al///15260 10939 12465 12115 1204130262 30939 32481 31818 1202745265 40940 42490 42016 1102960267 60941 62497 61817 0902680270 80941 82502 81915 1001800272 00940 02509 01914 10020MF041 36015

51

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 280155AF977 1504 BARRY OB 17 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

00/// all// all// all// /////80257 80958 83156 81206 3402760256 60955 63139 60807 3403845255 40951 43129 41008 0803430255 30948 33117 30908 3503015255 10945 13095 11207 36036CC256 C0942 C3088 C1505 280024MF038 27060 AZ///15257 10938 13117 11304 1503530257 30935 33142 31203 1302845258 40931 43147 41105 1501460257 60929 63156 61106 1401980257 80927 83159 81006 1401500257 00923 03165 01005 16016MF035 09015

URNT12 KMIA 280340AF977 1504 BARRY OB 22 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00273 00943 03169 01204 0701380260 80942 83162 81204 0902060267 60943 63154 61204 0702245264 40945 43149 41304 0902230261 30945 33140 31203 1003515258 10947 13130 11305 11028CC255 C0947 C3078 C1211 280231MF047 36010 AZ///15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////30258 30942 33134 31304 1303645261 40941 43147 41303 1202260262 60940 63157 61204 1502280265 80937 83163 81105 1502300267 00935 03167 01105 15023MF036 36030

52

Table 7 continued.

BARRY

URNT12 KMIA 280849AF963 1604 BARRY OB 06 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00265 00943 00012 02321 1302980262 80946 80011 82321 1302760261 60949 60010 62320 1403545111 41111 41111 41111 IIIII30258 30955 31111 31111 0804615111 11111 11111 11111 IIIIICC253 C0957 C3075 C1610 280626MF073 05011 AzIII15251 10960 13115 10808 3404130248 30960 31111 30806 IIIII45245 40960 43124 40807 IIIII60243 60959 63135 60906 IIIII80240 80959 83147 80705 IIIII00237 00957 03156 00702 IIIIIMF041 21015HVY R DURING OUTBOUND LEG DOPPLER RADAR ATTENUATED


00/// all// all// all// all//80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// II/II60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////45265 40961 43141 40906 1002930260 30962 33122 31008 0903715256 10964 13083 11110 12040CC256 C0965 C3037 C1407 281312MF040 04015 AZ///15251 10969 13096 108// 3600730249 30966 33132 308// 2602945246 40964 43137 409// 2803560244 60964 63147 608// 2601980242 80964 83147 808// 2601100238 00965 03153 008// 25018MF035 18045HAIL -HVY R -OCNL LTG OUTBOUND TO SOUTH

53

Table 7 continued.

BARRY


00/// all// all// all// /////80256 80956 83168 808// 1402960256 60958 63140 610// 1303245255 40962 43131 408// 1303830254 30964 33107 310// 1505015/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////CC254 C0969 C3004 C16// 281501MF050 04030 AZ///15256 10969 13079 111// 1204930258 30967 33131 309// 1304145260 40965 43145 410// 1203360262 60963 63153 609// 1203080264 80960 83162 810// 1403000266 00957 03171 010// 13023MFU49 03015MDT TURB -HAIL -HVY RAND OCNL LTG

54

Table 7 continued.

CHANTAL

URNT12 KMIA 091506AF969 01XX INVEST OB 15 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// II/II80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// II/II60255 60670 60018 62520 0101245256 40668 40018 42521 3101030256 30666 30019 32521 0201515256 10663 10019 12422 36016CC256 C0660 COO19 C2322 091420MFO16 27015 AZ///15256 10658 10019 12422 2000830256 30654 30019 32421 1801245256 40651 40019 42420 2000860256 60648 60019 62420 1901180/// 8//// 8//// 8//// II/II00/// all// all// all// II/IIMFO1209030

URNT12 KMIA 091623AF969 01XX INVEST OB 18 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00/// all// all// all// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////60265 60660 60018 62520 0700945263 40660 40019 42520 0600830261 30660 30019 32421 0600715259 10660 10019 12420 02007CC258 C0660 COO19 C2421 091516MFO09 36060 AZ///15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////30/// 3//// 3//// 3//// /////45/// 4//// 4//// 4//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF/// /////

55

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 101942AF967 0305 CYCLONE OB 10 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

00111 01111 01111 01111 1111180111 81111 81111 81111 1111160111 61111 61111 61111 1111145111 41111 41111 41111 1111130111 31111 31111 31111 11111151/1 111/1 111/1 111/1 11111CC309 C0641 COO08 C2411 101837MFIII 11111 AzIII15313 10640 10011 12222 0802230315 30640 30013 32323 0702345317 40641 40014 42323 0701660319 60642 60015 62424 1001780323 80642 80015 82423 1001700325 00643 00016 02523 05017MF023 3606030 KT SFC WINDS EXTEND APPROX 20NM N OF CNTR

URNT12 KMIA 102149AF967 0305 CYCLONE OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00308 00660 00016 02423 3501480309 80655 80015 82321 3400760309 60651 60015 62523 3400745309 40648 40014 42323 3200830309 30646 30014 32222 3101915310 10643 10013 12423 31019CC311 C0638 COO06 C2424 102053MF040 27006 AZ///15308 10638 10013 12222 3002930306 30638 30013 32221 2601845303 40638 40014 42221 2601860/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF029 1801525 KT SFC WINDS EXTEND 40NM S OF CNTR

56

Table 7 continued

CHANTAL

URNT12 KMIA 111333AF977 0405 CHANTAL OB 10 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

00337 00644 00016 02220 3301280334 80635 80015 82315 0203260334 60631 60015 62217 0203145333 40622 40013 42322 0303130331 30617 30011 32422 0101715329 10614 10009 12322 02029CC324 C0612 C0996 C2524 111229MF050 27005 AZ///15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////30/// 3//// 3//// 3//// /////45/// 4//// 4//// 4//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF/// /////

57

Table 7 continued.

DEAN

URNT12 KMIA 290434 CORAF969 0307 DEAN OB 08 COR KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00344 00690 00011 02220 1802380345 80694 80009 82221 1803060345 60698 60008 62221 1802645345 40701 40007 42221 1802330345 30704 30006 32222 1501815344 10707 10004 12222 20016CC344 C0710 COO03 C2422 290030MF030 09080 AZ33015347 10709 10006 12222 1102430350 30708 30007 32320 0902045353 40707 40008 42221 1101960356 60710 60010 61919 0305880359 80713 80012 81918 0405200362 00713 00014 01919 05046MF058 36060

URNT12 KMIA 290632AF969 0307 DEAN OB 13 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00328 00714 00011 02120 3101680331 80714 80010 82219 3101260334 60714 60008 62221 2801745337 40714 40007 42222 2801230339 30713 30005 32323 3300615342 10713 10005 12322 34007CC346 C0712 COO05 C2322 29d514MFO17 18060 AZ33015346 10716 10006 12121 3602930346 30720 30008 32020 0404045346 40722 40009 42119 0204060346 60725 60010 62019 0503480346 80729 80012 82020 0303300346 00733 00013 02019 04023MF040 27030

58

Table 7 continued.

DEAN

URNT12 KMIA 291523 COR 02NOAA2 0407 ~ OB 15 COR 02 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00345 00734 00013 01918 3602580346 80731 80013 82018 3503060347 60727 60011 62217 3404045348 40724 40010 42020 3302230350 30722 30009 32220 3251215/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////CC352 C0720 COO08 C2119 291401MF040 26060 AZ300

15/// 1//// 1//// 1//// /////30/// 3//// 3//// 3//// /////45/// 4//// 4//// 4//// /////60/// 6//// 6//// 6//// /////80/// 8//// 8//// 8//// /////00/// all// all// all// /////MF/// /////NO OUTBOUND DATA CLIMBING OUT OF PATTERN

LAST REPORT OBS 01-15 TO KMIA ETA KMIA 29/17002

URNT12 KMIA 300953AF866 0707 DEAN OB 04 KMIASUPPLEMENTAR~RTEX DATA MESSAGE00351 00748 00013 01616 3001180358 80747 80013 81616 2600860362 60747 60012 61616 2401745365 40750 40011 41717 2501930367 30751 30010 31717 2401915373 10753 10009 11818 24012CCIII CIIII CIIII CIIII 11/1/MFO19 II/II AzIII15111 11111 111/1 11111 11/1/30/11 311/1 31111 31111 111114511/ 41111 4111/ 41111 111116011/ 61111 61/11 61111 III/I80111 81//1 8//11 811/1 //11100111 0//1/ 0111/ 01//1 //111MFIII 11111NEGATIVE RADAR PRESENTATION SUSPECT CENTER OVERLAND NEAR 37. 5N 75. 8W BASED ON DOPPLER TRENDTOWARD CENTER

S9

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESS.AGE

MANOP HEADING (Completed bymonitnrs only)

UR__'2 --

~

MISSION IDENTIFIER AND OBSERVATION NUMBER (Completed by tll~ht meteorotoQtst and monitor)

AF

s~prJ,.E_~~"T~RY_~QRTEX DATA MESSAGE LE<£ND(La ~ Ia (La La l.g ~) I (iHHH) TTT dT d) (ddl II)

00 0 0 000/0 = INDICATORS FOR DATA COLLECTED

APPROX 100NM FROM SYSTEM CENTER

80/8 = I NOI CATORS FOR OATA COL.L.ECTEO IAPPROX 80NM FROM SYSTEM CENTER

60/6 = I NOI CATORS FOR OATA COL.L.ECTEO


80 8 8 8

60 6 6 6-

45/4 = I NDI CATORS FOR DATA COLLECTED


30/3 = INDICATORS FOR DATA COLLECTED


15/1 = INDICATOR~ FOR DATA COl.l.ECTEDAPPROX ISNM FROM SYSTEM CENTER

cclc = INDICATORS FOR DATA COl.LECTEDAT THE SYSTEM CENTER

45 4 4 4

30 3 3 3

15

( YY~g)

cc c c c( f f f) (BBRRRI (ddd)

MF AZ

~LoLo) (LoLoLoLo) (i HHH) TTTdTd) (ddfff)J 5 1

30 3 3 J

ddd = TRUE DI RECTI ON I N TENS OF

DEGREES OF STORM MOTION

MF = INDICATOR FOR MAX FI.IGiT L.EVEL.

'WI NO OBSERVED

AZ = I NOCATOR FOR TRUE DI RECTI ON OF

STORM MOTION

4S 4 4 4

60 6 6 6

80 8 8 8- .00 0 0 0

fff = SPEED OF WIND IN KNOTS

dd = TRUE DIRECTION OF FLI GlT L.EVELWIND SPEED IN TENS OF DEGREES

BBRRR :: BEARI NG 'Be) AND RANCE' RRRIFROM CENTER OF MF

VV<x;gg = ZULU DATE/TI ME OF CENTER DATA

TTTdTd = TEMP!DEWPOINT IN DEGREES

CELSI US;ADD 50 FOR NEGATI VEVALUES

(f f f) (BBRRR)

MFREMARKS (End at me..age) iHHH; PRESSURE HEIGiT DATA IN RECCO

FORMAT

La La Ia = LATI TUDE IN DEGREES/TEN :::jHS

a Lo Lv 10= LONGI TUDE I N [)F"'.REF~/rENTHS

/; ,p~T~__U~~OWN/UNORTAI NARIE

SAMPLE MESSAGE

mre FOR SUPPLE1'1ENrARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE.-

PREPARED BY TRAN5MI 551 ON TI ME:

A\',S F~RM 820',IAR 82

PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE

URNT 12 KMI A 241703AF966 0411 f"REDERIC 08 14SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE00l7B 00B99 03107 00908 36027BOl77 B0895 83100 80908 350426017B 6089\ 63092 60807 3605245177 408B7 430BB 40907 3507030178 30B83 33070 30908 3608B1517B 10880 13000 11010 35108CC177 COB76 C3947 CI811 241647MF148 27003 AZ31015177 IOB72 13000 11010 1812030178 30B68 33070 31009 1709645176 40862 430B8 40909 1606060177 60856 63093 60906 1705060177 60854 83102 60906 1704800178 006S0 03106 00905 16031MFI45 09005REMARKS LAST REPORT 08S 01 THRU 14TO KMIA ETA K81 X 241930ZAP~IXA .

Table 8. Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance St:Inm2ry for 1983

1. Requirements Levied Atlantic Eastern Pacific Central Pacific

TO, Storms, HurricanesInvestsTotal

112 539 0

600

60-151 - 5

2.

Requirements Accomplished

25/ 2-41/21

19/10/0

85/24

14/022/0010

11/047 I 0

3.

53rd WRS (Cyclone/Invest)920th WRGOAO54th wasTotalKis8ions Flown

53th was920th waGOAO54th wasTotal

4.

Flyina Time

53th was920th WRGOAO54tb wasTotal

5. Observations Horizontal 1338 61Vertical

62

APPEmIXB

ADVISORY NUMBER 1 TROPICAL S'IORM ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAl..x::E IN HURRICANE PROrOCrION PIANNI~ BY

GOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

CHAOCES OF CENI'ER OF ALICIA PASSIl.;x:; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THROlK;H 1 PM CI:Jr THU AIX; 18, 1983

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENI'... TIMES cor

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES1 PM WE lAMWED IPMWED

THRU THRU THRU1 AM WED IPMWED IPMTHU

XIIX 1 2X 1 21 1 32 2 33 2 23 2 23 2 34 2 15 2 24 2 27 3 27 3 47 4 22 5 31 3 3X 2 3X X 2

COASTALIOCATIONS

'IUl'ALTfffiU1~'lliU

THRU1 PM WE

XXXXX144769411XXXX

ST MARKS FLAPAIJ\CHlCOIA FLPANPMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLM)BlLE ALGULFroRr MSBURAS LANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORr ARI'HUR TXGALVFS'ION TXPORT 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBROONSVILLE , TXSCYroLAMARINAMEXTAMPlCO MEXTUXPANMEXVERACRUX MEX

233578

111214151716151410

752

X MEANS LFBS THAN ONE PERCENT

63

APPEmIXBCONI'INUill

ADVISORY NUMBER 2 TROPICAL STORM ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN fillRRICANE PRarFrrION PIANNING BY


CHAOCES OF CENrER OF ALICIA PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THRQI:x;H 7 PM CIJr THO AOO 18 1983

CHAr'X:::FS EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr... TIMES crJr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES7 PM WE 7 AM WED 7 PM WED

THRU THRU THRU7 AM WED 7PMWED 7PMTHU

X X 2X 1 1X 1 21 1 22 1 32 2 23 1 23 2 24 2 25 2 24 2 27 2 27 4 28 4 23 4 41 3 3X 2 3X X 2

'I'arALTHRU7PMTHU

2234679

1014151817151511

752

THRU7PM'IUE

XXXXX13366

10621XXXX

COASTAL~TIONS

STMARKSFJ;.APAIACHlCOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLIvX)BlLE ALGULFPORT MSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORT ARTHUR TXGALVES'roN TXPORr 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBR~SVILLETXSO'IOIAMARINAMEXTAMPlCO MEX'IUXPANMEXVERACRUZ MEX

X MEANS LFSS THAN ONE PERCENT

64

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 3 TROPICAL STORM ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PROl'OC'l'ION PIANNIOO BY

OOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

CHAOCES OF CENrER OF ALICIA PASSIt-K; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED u:x:ATIONS THRoo:;H 1 AM CIJr FRI AUG 19 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMES ClJI'

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES1 AM WED lPMWED lAMTHU

THRU THRU THRU1 PM WED lAMTHU lAMFRI

X X 2X 1 11 X 31 1 32 2 23 1 33 2 24 2 24 2 23 1 25 1 28 2 38 3 2

'rorALTHRUlAMFRI

COASTALlCX:::ATIONSAPALACHICOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLmBILE ALGULFroRT MSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORT ARTHUR TX

GALVES'lON TXPORT 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRG"I"NSVILLE TX

THRU1 AM WED

xxxxX1257

1311

43

2245689

131519191716

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENI'

65

APpEN)IX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 4 TROPICAL S'I'ORM ALICIA PROB.n.BILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PRarECrION PLl\NNI~ BY


CHAliI::ffi OF CENrER OF ALICIA PASSIt'l:; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THRoo:;H 7 AM crJr FRI AUG I 9 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CENr... TlMFS CIJr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIFS7 AM WED 7PMWED 7AMTHU

THRU THRU TlffiU7 PM WED 7AMTHU 7AMFRI

X X 1X X 2X 1 2X 1 2X 1 31 2 32 2 42 3 33 3 34 3 25 2 23 2 22 1 14 1 26 3 26 3 3

TOrALTHRU7AMFRI

THRU7 AM WED

XXXXXXX1237

111712

42

COASTAL

~TIONSTAMPA FLCEDAR KEY FLST MARKS FL

APALACHlCOLA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOLA FL

t-UBlLE ALGULFPORT MSBURAS LANE1V ORLEANS LA

NE1V IBERIA LAPORr ARTHUR TX

GALVES'lON TXPORT 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TX

BRrnNSVILLETX

12334689

1112161821191514

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENr

66

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 5 HURRICANE ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PR~ION PIANNIlIK; BY

GOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAIS

CHAOCFS OF CENI'ER OF ALICIA PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED I.£:cATIONS TlffiO{x:;H 1 PM CD!' FRI AOO 19 1983

CHAf\X::ES EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMES CI1l'

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIFB1 PM WED lAMTHU IPMTHU

THRU THRU THRUlAMTHU IPMTHU IPMFRI

XII1 X 21 1 32 2 22 1 33 2 23 1 2X 1 X1 1 X1 1 X5 2 14 2 2

'lUI'ALTHRUIPMFRI

mASTALUAATIONSPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLM)BILE ALGULFPORT MSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAGALVFS'ION TXroRT ARI'HUR TXroRT 0 mNOOR TXmRPUS cmuSTI TXBRaVNSVILLE TX

TfffiU1 PM WED

XXXX12

1035232393

235679

163625251711


67

APPEm1X B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 6 HURRICANE ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PR~ION PLANNIOO BY

GOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAlS

CHAOCFS OF CENI'ER OF ALICIA PASSIOO WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED UXATIONS THRoo:;H 7 PM mr FRI A[.K; 19 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMFS CDT

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES7 PM WED 7AMTHU 7PMTHU

THRU TfffiU THRU7AMTHU 7PMTHU 7~FRI

X X 1X 1 11 1 21 1 2X 1 22 2 23 2 11 X XX X X1 X X3 1 14 1 2

'!'OrALTHRU7mFRI

THRU7 PM WED

XXXX117

26462712

2

COASTAL~TIONSPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLmBlLE ALGULFroRrMSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORr ARTHUR TX

GALVESTON TXPORT 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRa'JNSVILLETX

124447

1327462817

9

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE Pfficmr

68

APPFmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 7 HURRICANE ALICIA PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAl':x:::E IN HURRICANE PR~ION PLANNI1.x; BY


~ OF cmrER OF ALICIA PASSIlIX; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THROlK:;H 1 AM crJr SAT AIX; 20 1983

CHAOCFS EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMES crJr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIESlAMTHU IPMTHU lAMFRI

THRU THRU THRUIPMTHU lAMFRI 1 AM SAT

XIIX 1 21 1 21 1 21 1 32 2 2X 1 XX X X1 X X2 1 14 2 1

TOTALTfffiU1 AM SAT

23446

112551342010

COASTALIOCATIONSPENSACOIA FLf..DBlLE ALGULFroRT MSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORI' ARTHUR TXGALVFS'ION TXPORT 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRrnNSVlUE TX

THRU1AMTHU

XXXX15

24513316

3

X MFANS LFSS THAN ONE PERCFNr

69

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13'.\.-.10V r /1"", , ,,- ,--, , ..', ~

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: .".~. ,I ,."...

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: : 16 AUG. 1983 ... 06Z .

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,,*':"~)~- ~ 0

~-~. -..'. tROP..DEP~ESSION .--TROP STORM-HURRICANE

., ,'.. EXTRATROPICAL

(!)'OOOOGMT, , .e.1200 GMT'

90W

jf~-":~~:_'-~~:::~~, c z

;MO~__A~'~ -\...HEW' 4

314 :

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Ov : :0 .. '\ .. .'" .~~ 15~: .~~: :.'C- ". ~'

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.15 : : 16 AUG. 1983 :...: : OOZ :.'.. ..'.1 ; ...,... ' l.

,: .:.: :

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HURRICANE ALICIA.15-21 AUGUST 1983 .

.9.0.

r

+8~

7

MTX~ 5'~ ~ .;:MOp__~~.- -\. -.STM

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;~=-:'-~2ur. z 8~Nf:wr5...

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5

.£JI.S V15 Pr C .'7 -.

..'1 .Cli 16; ~: :' ;:' ..'5 q,: .,' :

..."" ~ ::}~~ 1'4: ! T. S. ALICIA

: : 15 AUG. 1983 :"".. .: '82 :".. .;"'" '" .'.'. "" ..: : ...

: : :.:..: ...: .: :

t~w 9~W J~.:~~.: k...n -) :

"T'~-40 8S---

"" : .,~ "'" .; ,~ ~ \ :'" ..ro. :

...o-e_-- : ."~~ 114 j i T. S. ALICIA;

: : 16 AUG. 1983 :" '.(, .."" : : 12Z :

I,' ."'f..""'..""""""'" .'.i'...'.." :...8 ..... .. .........: .

95W 90W UA

.R .:..

;,

-,""'0_.. .0

~10

~"'" . ' . ,...~ -.'\. ."'0" :

: ,- :....

~~~OJ ~ i HUR. ALICIA= : 17 AUG. 1983

1':". : 12Z.3'.f' ...'.. '.' '.'.. '.".'. .".'."'.'.'. ., f f.

..: =

....95- 90-

: : ~-

95W

t,,"

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4 2, 17 ,~.,.

I\

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28 :, ...'\. 0'" :CII ..() ., ., ,,' :17 .,... .C .~ .

i ~..' ~--.Qi ~ 9 f ~ HUR. ALICIA

: : 17 AUG. 1983.: OOZ'. .'."..I .'" .: ' ..: ..'. .

': :....

.:: .........95W 90W

......

NEW'

.54 1- ~ IBURA.,'b 6-'- ~,~..t-. ,'\' ; 1. "t,-~ .........: .:.......: :( : : HUR.ALIC

I I : :11AUG.198~, : 18Z MS

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, " :.. : 17 AUG. 1983, : ."""'" . 06.'" ' z 1

: ..: .' """ " :: !

.!

; :

..: :95W :: 90W

: -~~ "'\71

119

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-: ,~~_..: HUR. AL'C'J.18 AUG.1983

OOZ: .'.'.'

\ ',1

,.y~ 1 90WQ~W

( :

3

APPENDIXB

ADVISORY NUMBER 1 TROPICAL S'IQRM BARRY PROB.l\BILITIES FORGUIDAra IN HURRICANE PRorECrIOO PLANNING BY


Clw..x;ES OF CENTER OF BARRY PASSIl'l; WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED ~TIONS THRoo:;H 8 PM Ear FRI AtK; 26 1983

!

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENT. ..TIMES mr

ADDITIONAL PROBl\BILITIES8mWED 8AMTHU 8PMTHU

THRU THRU THRU8AMTHU 8PMTHU 8PMFRI

2 1 23 2 34 2 25 2 25 2 35 3 33 3 42 3 52 4 42 3 51 4 51 4 51 3 5X 1 5X X 4X X 3

'!UrALTlffiU8PMFRI

mASTALUXATIONSMARATHON FLMIAMI FLW PAlM BFACH FLFr PIERCE FLccx::OA BEACH FLDAY'roNA BFACH FLJACKSONVILLE FLSAVANNAH GACHARLrn'ION SCMYRTLE BEACH SCWIIMIOOION NCrvlJREHFAD CITY NCCAPE HATrERAS NCNORFOLK VAOCEAN CITY MDATI.J\NrIC CITY NJ

THRU8 PM WED

X13331xxxxxxxxxx

59

11121312101010101010

9643

X MFANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENr

72

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 2 TROPICAL S'roRM BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PR~ION PIANNIr-I; BY

GOVER!':.1ENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAI.S

~ OF CENrER OF BARRY PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILF$ OFLISTED ~TIONS THRoo:;H 2 AM EIJr SAT AUG 27 1983

CHAOCFS EXPRESSED IN PER CENr ...TIMFS Em'

ADDITIONAL PROB.Z\BILITIFS2AMTHU 2PMTHU 2AMFRI

THRU THRU THRU2PMTHU 2AMFRI 2 AM SAT

'rorALTlffiU2 N-1 SAT

COASTALIiAATIONS

THRU2AMTHU

ATLANl'IC mAST PROBABILITIESMARATHON FL XMAIAMIFL 1W PAlM BFACH FL 2FT PIERCE FL 3CCXX)A BEACH FL 3DAYTONA BEACH FL 2JACKSONVILLE FL 1SAVANNAH GA XCHARLFS'roNSC 1MYRTLE BEACH SC XWIIMI~N OC XMJREHFAD CITY' NC XCAPE HATl'ERAS OC XOORFOLK VA XOCEAN CITY MD XATIANrIC CITY' NJ XNEW YORK CITY' NY XI'-UNI'AUK porNI' NY XPROVIDEr-K::E RI XNANIUCKErMA X

1234443434332XXXXXXX

122233334343321XXXXX

32332344344555332212

57

1012121211111111111110

7432212

GULF COAST PROMBILITIESKEY WEST FL XMARCO ISIAND FL XFTMYERSFL XVENICE FL XT/lMPA FL XCEDAR KEY FL XST MARKS FL XAPAIACHICOIA FL XPANAMA CITY FL XPENSACOIA FL Xl'-UBILE AL XGULFroRT MS XBURAS IA X

1222221XXXXXX

122232121XXXX

2333345443222

4777887653222

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

73

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBffi 3 TROPICAL S'I'ORM BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PRC1l'Ft::rION PLANNI!';x; BY


CHAOCES OF CENI'ER OF BARRY PASSIt-:K; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED I.(X::'ATIONS THROI:.x;H 8 AM ED!' SAT AUG 27 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMES EIJI'

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIFS8AMTHU 8PMTHU 8AMFRI

THRU THRU THRU8 PM THU 8 AM FRI 8 AM SAT

'IUl'ALTHRU8 AM SAT

COASTALI.(X:::ATIONS

THRU8AMTHU

IAT 30N IDN 77WMARATHON FLMIAMI FLW PAlM BFACH FLFr PIERCE FLCCXX>A BFACH FLDAYroNA BFACH FLJACKSONVIUE FLSA" 'ANNAB GACHARLFS'illN SCMYRTLE BFACH SCWIIMINGroN OCMJREHFAD CITY OCCAPE HA'ITERAS NCOORFOLKVAOCEAN CITY MDATIANrIC CITY NJ

47X123432221XXXXXX

X1134454454432XXX

X133333322333321X

X4333223334444422

4768

11131313121112121110

9632

GULF COAST PROBl\BILITIES

KEY WEST FLMARCO ISLAND FLFrMYERSFLVENICE FLTAMPA FLCEDARKEYFLST MARKS FLAPAIACHICOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FL

12222311XX

1233322111

xxxX1XXXXX

3444444442

5899

1097653

X MEANS LFSS THAN ONE PERcmr

74

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 5 TROPICAL S'IORM BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUID~ IN HURRICANE PRarECrION PIANNIOO BY


CHAOCffi OF CENrER OF BARRY PASSIr-x} WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED urATIONS THROUGH 2 PM E[JI' SAT AUG 27 1983

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN pm CENr. ..TIMFS EDI'

ADDITIONAL PROMBILITIES2PMTHU 2AMFRI 2PMFRI

THRU THRU THRU2AMFRI 2PMFRI 2 PM SAT

'rorALTHRU2 PM SAT

COASTALIOCATIONS

TlffiU2PMTHU

11025404634131XXXXXX

42xxxx34311xxx

321XX12322111X

21xxxx14444432

11244311

MARATHON FLMI~ FLW PAlM BEACH FLFT PIERCE FL<XCOA BEACH FLDAy"1IQNA BFAaI FLJACKSONVILLE FLSAVANNAH GACHARLESTON SCMYRl'LE BEAm scWIIMIOOION ~MOREHEAD CITY ~CAPE HATI'ERAS ~OORFOLK VA

GULF COAST PROBABILITIES

KEY WFST FLMARCO ISLAND FLFTMYERSFLVENICE FLTAMPA FLCEDAR JEI' FKSTMARKSFLAPAIACHICOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLr-DBILE ALGULF'PORT MSBURAS IANE.W ORLEANS IANE.W IBERIA IAroRT ARTHUR TXGALYFaS'illN TX

11016172317

321XXXXXXXX

4433237652XXXXXXX

32111123323221XXX

2111X233454555422

112222111

X MEANS LESS 'rHAN ONE PERCENT

75

05

6065929765

42

0

712635

4397776

422

APpEN)IX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 6 TROPICAL S'IORM BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROrK'TION PLANNING BY

GOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAlS ,\?

~ OF CENrER OF B.Z\RRY PASSIr-:x::; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THRoo:;H 8 PM ill!' SAT Am 27 1983

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENr... T~ EDr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES8PMTHU 8AMFRI 8PMFRI


rorALTHRU8 PM SAT

611244761442111

864322

COASTAL~TIONSMARATHONFLMIAMIFLW PAlM BEACH FLFT PIERCE FLaxx)A BEACH n.DAY'roNA BEACH FLJACKSONVILLE FLSAVANNAH GACHARLFB'illN SCMYRTLE BEACH SCWIIMImI'ON OCI'-K)REHFAD CITY OCCAPE HATrERAS OC

OORFOLKVA

THRU8PMTHU

17

24476144171XXXXXX

22xxxX25311xxx

21XXXX1322111X

11XXXX12332212

GULF COAST PROBABILITIES

KEY WEST FLMAROJ ISU\ND FLf~ MYERS FLVENICE FLTN-1PA FLCEDAR KEY FL

ST MARKS FLAPAIACHIOJIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSAOJIA FLMJBILE ALGULFPORT MS

BURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA LAPORT ARI'HUR TXGALVES'ION TXPORT 0 CONOOR TX

OJRPUS ClffiISTI TXBR~SVIIJ..ETX

11118223126

852XXXXXXXXXXX

2321x17994211XXXXXXX

2XX1X1223554542XXXXX

111X1X12244656665433

615212432281818161311111110

865433

X MEANS LFBS THAN ONE PERCENT

76

APPEM>IX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 7 TROPICAL S'roRM BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDANCE IN HURRICNAE PRarErrION PIANNIOO BY

mVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAIS

~ OF CENrER OF Bl\RRY PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS ~()lX:;H 2 AM Em SUN AI:.x; 28 1983

CHAOCFS EXPRESSED IN PER CENr. ..TIMES EIJr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES2AMFRI 2PMFRI 2 AM SAT

THRU THRU TlffiU2 PM FRI 2 AM SAT 2 AM SUN

THRU2 AM FRI

1691XXXXXXXXXX

'!OrALTHRU2 AM SUN

21171311111210

866544

3564342XXXXXX

1233333211XXX

1134555655544

COASTALI.£aTIONSAPAIACHlCOlA. FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOlA. FLfvt)BlLE ALGULFPORT MSBURAS lA.NEW ORLEANS lA.NEW IBERIA lA.ffiRT ARTHUR TXGALVFS'roN TXffiRT 0 C()Nt-l)R TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRa'VNSVILLETX

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

77

APPENDIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 12 TROPICAL DEPRffiSION BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PRarfr:rION PIANNING BY

GOVERNMENT AND DI~TER OFFIC~

CHAOCES OF CENI'ER OF BARRY PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS 'l'HR()lK;H 1 AM crJr M)N AtK; 29 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER crnr... T~ COT

COASTALlOCATIONSST MARKS FL

APAIACHlCOLA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOLA FLl'-:K)BlLE ALGULFPORTMSBURAS LANEW ORLEANS LA

NEW IBERIA LAPORT ARTHUR TXGAL VES'ION TXPORT 0 CONmR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBROtlNSVII.J.E TX

THRU1 AM SAT

XXXXXX1XXXXXXX

THRU1 m SAT

XX111244434424

THRU1 N-1 SUN

X1X12233445566

THRU1 AM MaN

22233423344444

TfffiU1 AM l'JX)N

233568

1010111113131214

X MFANS LFSS THAN ONE PERCENr

I"

78

APPEHJIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 13 TROPICAL DEPRESSION Bl\RRY PROMBILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PR~ION PIANNIK; BY

GO~ AND DISASTER OFFICIAIS

CHAOCES OF CENTER OF B.n.RRY PASSIt-K; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED lOCATIONS THROmH 8 AM Em' mN AUG 29 1983

CHAOCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENI'... TIMES EIJI'

ADDITIONAL PROBl\BILITIES8~ SAT 8 EM SAT 8 ~ SUN

TfffiU TfffiU TfffiU8 PM SAT 8AMSUN 8~mN

XII1 1 11 1 22 1 22 2 23 2 35 3 24 3 34 4 32 4 53 4 52 5 51 5 52 6 4

'IUI'AL

THRU8 AM mN

234568

1110111112121112

COASTALlikATIONSST MARKS FLAPAIACHICOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSACOIA FLr-DBILE ALGULFroRTMSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORT ARTHUR TXGALVES'ION TXPOR'f 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS aiRISTI TX~SVIU.ETX

THRU8 AM SAT

XXXXXx1xxxxxxx

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCFNr

79


ADVISORY NUMBER 13 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE P~ION PIANNIr-K; BY

GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIAlS

~ OF CENI'ER OF BARRY PASSIl'l:; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS TIffiOlK:;H 8 AM ErJr fIoUN AlK; 29 1983

CHAOCFS EXPRESSED IN PER CENr. ..TlMFS EIJr

ADDITIONAL PROMBILITIES8AM SAT 8 ~ SAT 8 AM SUN

THRU THRU THRU8 PM SAT 8 AM SUN 8 AM t.lX)N

X 1 11 1 11 1 22 1 22 2 23 2 35 3 24 3 34 4 32 4 53 4 52 5 51 5 52 6 4

'TOTAL

THRU8 AM MaN

234568

1110111112121112

THRU8 AM SAT

xxxxxx1xxxxxxx

COASTALlOCATIONSST MARKS FLAPAI.ACHlCOIA FLPANAMA CITY FLPENSNXJIA FL[\I)BlLE ALGULFPORI' MSBURAS IANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAroRI' ARTHUR TXGALVFS'ION TXroR'r 0 CONOOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRa'JNSVILLE TX

X MEANS LFSS THAN ONE PERCFNr

79


ADVISORY NUMBER 14 'IROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PRarECrION PLANNII'K; BY


CHAOCES OF CENrER OF BARRY PASSIt-l3 WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED lOCATIONS THRO{x;H 2 PM EI:Yr M)N AlK:; 29 1983

~ EXPRffiSED IN PER CENI'... TIMES E:[YI'

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIffi2 PM SAT 2AMSUN 2PMSUN

THRU THRU THRU2 AM SUN 2 PM SUN 2 PM mN

XII1 1 11 2 22 1 22 2 23 3 26 3 38 3 29 3 29 4 2

12 3 1

'lUI'ALTHRU2 IM I\IDN

23567y

1214161617

COASTALUx::ATIONSPEN'SACOIA FLmBILE ALGULFPORT MS

BURAS LANEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORT ARTHUR TX

GALVFS'ION TXPORI' 0 CONNOR TXCORPUS cmuSTI TXBRC1IJNSVIIJ..ETX

THRU2 PM SAT

XXX111X1211

X MFANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

80


ADVISORY NUMBER 16 TROPICAL S'roRM B.Z\RRY PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICNE PRorFCrION PLANNI~ BY


~ OF CENrER OF MRRY PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILFB OFLISTED lCCATIONS THRO(K;H 1 AM crJr TUE At):; 30 1983

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr... TIMES cor

Addi tional Probabili ties1 AM SUN 1 PM SUN 1 AM r-DN

THRU THRU THRU1 PM SUN 1 AM r-DN 1 AM 'roE

2 1 X4 3 X8 1 X8 1 X

11 1 X7 1 X

rorALTIffiUlAM'IUE

COASTALux:ATIONSNE.W IBERIA IAroRr ARTHUR TXGALVFS'roN TXroRr 0 CONNJR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRaVNSVILLE TX

THRU1 AM SUN

113

111017

48

12202225

X MFANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

81

APPmDIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 17 TROPICAL S'IORM BARRY PROBl\BILITIES FORGUID~ IN HURRICANE PROI'EL'TION PIANNI~ BY


CHAOCES OF CENrER OF BARRY PASSIr-l:; WITHIN 65 MILFB OFLISTED UXATIONS 'I'HR(){X;H 7 AM CI:Yr WE AOO 30 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CFNr. ..TIMES CDr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES7 AM SUN 7PMSUN 7AMK)N

THRU THRU THRU7 PM SUN 7AMr.DN 7AM'IUE

'IOTALTHRU7AM'IUE

COASTALux::ATIONSNEW ORLEANS IANEW IBERIA IAPORT ARTHUR TX

GAL VFS'ION TXPORT 0 CONNOR TXCORPUS CHRISTI TXBRavNSVILLETX

'I'lffiU7AM SUN

X27

18261911

1362255

12111X1

xxxxxxx

27

1421292417


82

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t\~ : 24 AUG '983

121

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..:'4 AUG 1983i OOl

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APPEM)IXB

ADVISORY NUMBER 5 'IROPICAL S'illRM DEAN PROB.Z\BILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PROrEx:;rION PIANNI~ BY

GOVERNMENI' AND DISASTER OFFICIAffi

QiAOCES OF CENTER OF DEAN PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED urATIONS THR()lK;H 2 PM mr SAT ~ 1 1983

CHANCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENr. ..TIMES mr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES2 PM THU 2AM FRI 2 PM FRI

THRU THRU THRU2 AM FRI 2 PM FRI 2 PM SAT

X X 2X X 3X 1 4X 2 41 2 52 3 52 5 36 3 35 4 36 3 35 3 44 3 44 3 42 4 44 3 33 3 41 3 4X 2 3X 1 3X 1 2X 1 2X X 2X 1 4X 1 2X X 2

'!UrALTHRU2 PM SAT

23568

1011131314131111101010

854332532

COASTAL~TIONSDAY'IONA BFJ\CH FLJACKSONVILLE FLSAVANNAH GACHARLESTON SCMYRTLE BFJ\CH SCWIIMImTON OCr-DREHFl\D CITY NCCAPE HATrERAS OC

NORFULKVACCFAN CITY MDATLANI'IC CITY NJNEW' YORK CITY NYmNrAUK FOINr NYPROVID~ RINANI'UCKErMAHYANNIS MABOSTON MAPORrIAND MEBAR HARBOR MEEASTPORT MEST JOHN NBr-Dl'CION NBYARfIIUill'f! NSHALIFAX NSSABLE ISLAND NS

TIfF2PM

XXXXXx11121XXXXXXXXXXXXXX


85

~U

'lliU

APPmoIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 6 'IROPICAL S'IORM DEAN PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PROI'FCI'ION PLANNI~ BY


QiAOCES OF CENI'ER OF DEAN PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED ~TIONS 'I'HR0{x;H 8 PM EI:Yr SAT ocr 1 1983

CHAOCES ~RFSSED IN PER CENr... TIMES Em

ADDITIONAL PROMBILITIES8PMTHU 8AMFRI 8PMFRI


X 1 2X 1 3X 2 41 3 43 3 44 4 37 2 34 2 15 3 25 2 34 3 42 3 42 3 41 2 41 3 41 2 4X 2 4X 1 3X X 3X X 2X X 2X 1 2X X 2

'IarALTHRU8 PM SAT

COASTAL~TIONSDAY'roNA BEACH FLJACKSONVILLE FLSAVANNAH GACHARLESTON SCMYRTLE BEACH SC

WIIMINGI'ON OCM)REHEAD CITY OCCAPE HA'ITERAS OC

OORFOLKVAOCEAN CITY MDATLANI'IC CITY NJNEiJ YORK CITY NYM)NrAUK roINr NYPROVID~ RINANl'lJCKErMAHYANNIS MAroSTON MAroRTIAND MEBAR HAROOR MEEASTroRTMEST JOHN NBYARlvI)UTH NSHALIFAX NS

THRU8PMTHU

XXXXX13

11651XXXXXXXXXXXX

3468

10121518161512

997876432232


86

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 7 TROPICAL S'IORM DEAN PROB.Z\BILITIESFOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICNAE PRQrocrION PLANNIt-K:;

BY GOVERl\lII1ENr AND DISASTEROFFICIAIS

CHAOCES OF CENI'ER OF DFAN PASSIl\K; WITHIN 65 MILES OFLISTED ~TIONS THRCXJGH 2 AM Em SUN ocr 2 1983

~ EXPRESSED IN PER CENr ...TIMFS EDI'

ADDITIONAL PROMBILITIES2AMFRI 2PMFRI 2 AM SAT

THRU THRU TiffiU2PMFRI 2 AM SAT 2AMSUN

X X 2X 1 2X 1 41 2 42 3 43 4 47 3 37 2 22 2 X5 2 27 2 35 3 42 3 51 3 41 2 41 2 41 2 4X 2 4X 1 3X X 3X X 2X X 2X X 3X X 2X X 2X X 3X 1 2X X 2X X 2X X 2X X 2

'rorALTHRU2 AM SUN

23579

1214172117151210

877764322322332222

THRU2AMFRI

XXXXx116

1783xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

COASTAL~TIONSC(XX)A BEACH FLDAY'IONA BEACH FLJACKSONVILLE F1LSAVANNAH GACHARLFS'roN SCMYRTLE BEACH SXWIu..u~N OC!\DREHFAD CITY OCCAPE HATrERAS OC

OORFOLKVAOCEAN CITY MDAY.LANrIC CITY NJ~ YORK CITY NY!\DNI'AUK ffiINI' NYPROVIDE}iK::E RINANIUCKErMAHYANNIS MAOOS'roN MAffiRTIAND MEBAR HAROOR ME

FASTPORT MEST JOHN NBYARf./rorH NSHALIFAX NSTAMPA FLCEDAR KEY FLSTMARKSFLAPAIACHlCOIJ\ FLPANN-1A CITY FLPENSACOIJ\ FL!\DBlLE AL

X MFANS LFSS THAN ONE PERCFNr

87


ADVISORY NUMBER 8 TROPICAL S'roRM DEAN PROBABILITIES FORGUIDAOCE IN HURRICANE PRarEr:rION PIANNIIil:; BY


CHAOCFB OF CENI'ER OF DFAN PASSIt-K:; WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED I1::x:::ATIONS 'I'HR(){X;H 8 AM EDT SUN ~ 2 1983

CHAOCES EXPRESSED IN PER CENI'... TIMFS Em'

ADDITIONAL PROB.Z\BILITI~8AMFRI 8PMFRI 8 AM SAT

TIffiU THRU THRU8PMFRI 8 AM SAT 8AMSUN

1 2 X3 1 X5 1 X3 1 X1 X X1 X X1 X X5 1 X7 2 X3 3 X3 2 X2 2 X2 2 X2 2 X1 1 X

'rorALTHRU8 AM SUN

COASTALIa::ATIONSCHARLES'ION SCMYRTLE BFACH SCWIIMImroN OCl\'K)REHFAD CITY OCCAPE HATI'ERAS OC

OORFOLK VAOCEAN CITY MDATLANrIC CITY NJNEW YORK CITY NYl\'K)NI'AUK POINI' NYPROVID~ RINANIUCKETMAHYANNIS MAOOS'roN MAPORTIAND ME

THRU8AMFRI

X128

22312911

21XXXXX

358

122332301711

754442


88

APPEmIX B continued

ADVISORY NUMBER 9 TROPICAL S'IORM DEAN PROan.BILITIFSFOR GUIDAOCE IN HURRICNAE P~ION PLANNI~

BY GOVERNMENr AND DISASTER OFFICIAU;

CHAOCRS OF CENI'ER OF DFAN PASSI~ WITHIN 65 MILFS OFLISTED IOCATIONS THR()lx:;H 2 PM EIJr SUN OCT 2 1983

CHAOCffi EXPRESSED IN PER CENr... TIMES mr

ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES2 PM FRI 2 AM SAT 2 PM SAT

THRU THRU THRU2 AM SAT 2 PM SAT 2PMSUN

X X XX X XX X XX X Xx x xX X XX X X

TCYrAL

THRU2 PM SUN

COASTAL~TIONSWIIMIl';x:;roN OCr..DREHFAD CITY OCCAPE HATI'ERAS OC

OORFOLK VAOCEAN CITY MDATLANrIC CITY NJNE.W YORK CITY NY

THRU2PMFRI

13

357539

51

13

357539

51

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCmr

89

Documents

Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC National Hurricane Center ... · Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida JANUARY 1984 United States Departlrent of