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GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
1 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
2 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
NEPSE Struggling at Channel Resistance
Nepse had witnessed bullish sentiment before election but market is reluctant to go higher on
the first trading day following Election Day. Upon the victorious result gained by left alliance,
political and economic scenario is expected to be stable in the coming years. However on
Sunday market didn’t perform exceptionally to the election results as expected by many. In the
first trading hour, the benchmark index spiked to reach 1556 but it slid to stay neutral around
1536 levels. This indicates there are many investors betting on the downside as many there
are betting on the upside.
Based on market conditions after elections in the past market have reasons to go up. On its
way to north, Nepse has to face several hurdles. Immediate hurdle lines up at 1550 which was
tested on Sunday. Upon the breakout of this level, Nepse will find another ceiling at 1585. After
surpassing these levels major concern is at 1675, which is a significant resistance for the local
bourse. From this point and beyond, all the levels will be a major resistance for the Nepse.
Above 1675, important resistance will be 1750 which will be followed by 1888, all time high.
On the downside, immediate significant support lines up at 1500. If broken, markets will open
door to 1460. Upon breaking this level, market is certain to test 1300. Nepse is below 6-day
simple moving average while it is well above 21-day simple moving average. ADX indicator
which gauzes the trend of the market is bullish regarding the trend of Nepse. Average true
range (ATR) is down trending which signals decreasing volatility within Nepse. Stochastic
indicator is pulling back from overbought territory indicating increased selling pressure.
Among the various sectors traded on Nepse, hydropower sector seems to lead the entire
market. Hydropower index has made fresh 7-month high while other sectors have not made
these kinds of highs.
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
3 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Market Glance
Indices 26th Nov 6th Dec % Change
NEPSE Summary: 26th Nov to 6th Dec,2017
NEPSE Index 1,514.34 1536.54 1.47%
NEPSE High 1,537.67
Sensitive 319.15 323.67 1.42%
NEPSE Low 1,513.74
Float 108.87 110.42 1.42%
NEPSE Close 1,536.54
Sensitive Float 97.09 98.35 1.30%
Average Turnover per Day
683,079,195
Total Turnover 597,514,072 692,620,650 15.92%
Average Shares Traded per Day
1,273,644
Total Traded Shares 1,083,588 1,271,880 17.38%
Average Transactions per Day
6,034
Total Transactions 5,710 5,889 3.13%
Total Scrips Traded 155 166 7.10%
Total Market Cap (Rs. Mill)
1,759,129.52 1,785,489.18 1.50%
Float Market Cap (Rs.Mill) 590,875.88 599,531.19 1.46%
NEPSE Top 5 Companies by Traded Shares
NEPSE Top 5 Companies by Turnonver
1 Nepal Bank Limited 603,606
1 Butwal Power Company Limited 366,787,148
2 Butwal Power Company Limited 511,696
2 Chilime Hydropower Company Limited
290,488,639
3 Nepal Credit And Commercial Bank Ltd 467,396
3 Standard Chartered Bank Limited 230,603,743
4 Janata Bank Nepal Ltd. 417,557
4 Nepal Bank Limited 223,043,607
5 Chilime Hydropower Company Limited 310,225
5 Nepal Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 199,933,565
NEPSE Top 5 Companies by No. of Transactions
NEPSE Top 5 Companies by Market CAP
1 Himalayan Power Partner Ltd. 2,392
1 Nepal Doorsanchar Company 134,250,000,000
2 Nepal Grameen Bikas Bank Ltd. 2,266
2 Nabil Bank 93,890,877,200
3 Chilime Hydropower Company Ltd 1,774
3 Standard Chartered Bank 84,921,164,360
4 Butwal Power Company Limited 1,626
4 Everest Bank 72,121,069,005
5 Standard Chartered Bank Limited 1,584
5 Nepal Investment Bank 71,940,969,689
In the review period, NEPSE rose by 22.2 points (1.47%) from 1514.34 on 26th November,
closing at 1,536.54 on 6th December. Sensitive index, which gauzes the performance of ‘A’
class stocks increased 1.42 % to close at 323.67. Float index also rose by 1.42% closing at
110.42 while sensitive float index increased by 1.30%. All major indicator like turnover, traded
shares, transaction volumes and market capitalization shown positive growth in the review
period. The major reason to support the market up was the sentiment of market participants
linked to the federal and legislative election going on in the country.
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
4 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Top Fortnight News
1. NRB directs the Commercial Banks to follow NFRS – NRB issued a circulars mandating the
Commercial Banks to prepare and report the financial statement as per Nepal Financial Reporting
Standards (NFRS) from the financial year 2074/75. NFRS is the new accounting standards framed by
the Accounting Standards Board Nepal which is converged with IFRS. However, full compliance of
NFRS could be a challenge to banks now.
2. NRB to exit from NEPSE – NRB which holds 34.6 percent ownership in NEPSE, has decided to sell
off its holding through the auction process; proposal yet to be decided by the Board of NEPSE.
3. NEPSE on homework to prepare margin lending procedure – After the SEBON statement
regarding the margin trading facility, directing NEPSE to come up with the procedure, NEPSE held
the meeting with Brokers to discuss about the margin trading procedures and prepare to discuss
with the investors on the same. NEPSE will then finalise the margin lending procedures, which will
come into implementation after approval from SEBON.
4. Banks Falling NPL rate amid rising lending money despite slow growth of deposits – The
annual average NPL of commercial bank decreased to 1.67 percent in FY 2016/17 from 3.16 percent
in FY 2015/16. In the first quarter of FY 2017/18, it was 1.77 percent. On the other side, Banks have
again been aggressively expanding their loans despite the slowed down deposit growth. As per data
by Nepal Bankers' Association (NBA), the lending of commercial banks rose by Rs. 14 billion in a
week between November 10 and November 17 compared to a deposit growth by Rs. 8 billion.
5. BFI’s to identify 7 risks – BFI’s are now obliged to consider two more risks – ‘market risk’ and
‘other risk’ as part of their risk management efforts along with credit risk, operational risk, liquidity
risk, interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk. Institutions are required to have necessary policy
and procedure for the management of market risks resulting from the volatility in the indicators like
price and interest rates. Other risk includes reputation risk, strategic risk and anti-money
laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT).
6. Nepal has $46 billion climate investment opportunities by 2030; IFC analysis – As per the
report entitled ‘Climate Investment Opportunities in South Asia' published by International Finance
Corporation (IFC), Nepal offers climate investment opportunities worth $46.1 billion by the year
2030 in key sectors like large hydro, transport infrastructure, smart agriculture, green building etc.
7. White paper on reducing trade deficit – Government is preparing the ‘white paper’ to address
the country’s disquieting rate of imports, falling remittance and revenue collection. A white paper is
a government report issued to describe the status of a situation or crisis, together with remedial
measures.
8. World Bank approved $80m credit for Nepal Livestock Sector Innovation Project - The
development objectives of the project are to increase productivity, enhance value addition, and
improve climate resilience of smallholder farms and agro-enterprises in selected livestock value-
chains in Nepal. The credit will mature in 38 years, with a grace of 6 years.
9. ADB to provide $150m loan assistance – Asian Development Bank (ADB) has decided to provide
loan assistance of $150m at interest rate of 1% p.a. for the implementation of Regional Urban
Development Project. (Source: Himalayan Times and MyRepublica)
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
5 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Major Fortnight Corporate Events
IPO / Right News
1. Sanima Equity Fund worth Rs.1.2 arba collected Rs.1.22 arba from 20,000 applicants by closing date.
2. Neco Insurance 50% right shares added in SEBON pipeline for approval; receive Grade 3 by ICRA Nepal.
3. ICRA Nepal assigned “[ICRANP] IPO Grade 4+”, indicating below average fundamentals to the proposed 50% rights issue of Asian Life Insurance Company Limited.
4. ICRA Nepal Limited has assigned an “[ICRANP] IPO Grade 4” rating to the proposed IPO of Shiva Shree Hydropower Limited, indicating below average fundamentals.
5. Deva Bikas Bank Limited (DBBL) 40% right share has been added in SEBON pipeline for approval.
6. Nepal Seva Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Ltd. 180,000 units of IPO shares under Preliminary Review; NMB Capital Ltd. is the Issue Manager.
7. NCC Bank Ltd. 50% right shares under Preliminary Review.
Proposed Bonus/Right/Cash Dividend
S.N Ticker Bonus Right Cash
S.N Ticker Bonus Right Cash
1 LGIL 12.82% 0.67%
5 MNBBL 20% 1.05%
2 UMHL 5%
6 SBBLJ 20% 4.5%
3 GFCL 10.19% 0.536%
7 GDBL 25%
4 SBI 15.42% 0.81% 8 NNLB 20% 250%
Existing Auction
Ordinary
S.N Ticker Units Opening Date Closing Date LTP Issue Manager Status
1 KEBL 12587.00 5/12/2017 15/12/2017 312 Global IME Capital Limited Open
2 KADBL 14565.00 1/12/2017 12/12/2017 237 Global IME Capital Limited Open
Promoter
1 NGBBL 145572.00 28/11/2017 28/12/2017 723 NIBL Capital Market Limited Open
2 BOKL 6158067.00 8/12/2017 15/12/2017 418 Nabil Investment Banking Limited
Open
3 NCCB 444622.00 14/11/2017 18/12/2017 367 NIBL Capital Market Limited Open
IPO/Right Share under Preliminary Review
S.N Name of Company Ratio Units Issue Manager Date of Application
1 NCC Bank Limited 2:1 23,395,291 Sunrise Capital 20/08/2074
2 Nepal Seva Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Ltd. IPO 180,000 NMB Capital 07/08/2074
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
6 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Other news and Events (Source: Sharesansar)
NMB Bank Limited has been honored with ‘Bank of the Year 2017’ award.
NB Insurance Company Limited (NIBL) has changed its name into IME General Insurance
Limited (IGI)
First Microfinance Development Bank Limited (FMDBL) has changed its name into First Micro
Finance Laghu Bitta Bittiya Sanstha.
Nabil Bank’s CEO Mr. Sashin Joshi resigned; Mr. Upendra Prasad Paudyal has been nominated
as the director of the company.
Mr. Janak Sharma Poudel has been appointed as the CEO of Global IME Bank Limited.
Mr. Tulasi R Gautam has been appointed as new CEO of ICRA Nepal.
Mr. Ashish Rai appointed as new Managing Director of Unilever Nepal Limited (UNL).
Gurans Life Insurance Company Limited has appointed Narayan Kumar Bhattarai as the new
CEO. Mr. Saurabh Dugad appointed as Board Member from Promoter Shareholder Group.
Mr. Ramesh Prasad Joshi has been appointed as new CEO of Sindhu Bikas Bank Limited.
Butwal Power Company Limited (BPCL) partnering with three Chinese companies for
hydropower development in Nepal.
NMB Bank has launched Visa Platinum Credit Card, feature include EMV chip technology,
which is an international standard for authenticating card transactions, providing a faster,
more convenient and secure way of transaction, along with global acceptance.
Transaction in Australian Dollar now possible through Citizen Bank International Limited;
opened account in State Bank of India in Sydney, Australia.
‘Nepal Chamber Expo’ organized by Nepal Chamber of Commerce (NCC) on 30th November,
concluded on 4th December, Monday; received more than 50,000 visitors and recorded
transactions worth Rs 40 million till Sunday.
Upcoming Fortnight Corporate Events
AGM/SGM
S.N Ticker AGM Book Closure Date AGM Date Special Agenda
1 TNBL 11th 12/6/2017 12/23/2017 10% Bonus Share and 5% Cash Dividend
2 GFCL 23rd 12/11/2017 12/22/2017 10.19% Bonus Share and 0.536% Cash Dividend
3 SICL 13th 12/8/2017 12/22/2017 29% Bonus share and 1.52% cash Dividend
4 UMHL AGM 12/8/2017 12/22/2017 5% Cash Dividend
5 HPPL 5th 12/6/2017 12/21/2017
6 MEGA Special 1/20/2017 12/19/2017 Merger with Tourism Development Bank Limited
7 SRBL 10th 10/30/2017 12/18/2017 15% Bonus Share
8 HDL 17th 12/1/2017 12/15/2017 21.05% cash dividend
9 SKBBL 16th 11/26/2017 12/15/2017 25% Bonus Share and 1.31% Cash Dividend
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
7 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
10 LBL 17th 11/27/2017 12/14/2017 10% Bonus Share and 0.53% Cash Dividend, Merger
11 SHL 43rd 11/20/2017 12/14/2017 6.05 % Cash Dividend and 15% Bonus Share
12 NMFBS 4th 12/1/2017 12/13/2017 20% Bonus Share and 15% Cash Dividend
13 NBBL 8th 11/29/2017 12/11/2017 45.60% Bonus Share and 2.40% Cash Dividend, 1:1 right share
Upcoming Auction
Ordinary Shares
S.N Symbol Units Opening Date Closing Date LTP Issue Manager Status
1 EDBL 18287 10/12/2017 24/12/2017 404 Ace Capital Limited Coming Soon
IPO
Company Name Units Issue Price
Issue Manager Status
1 Radhi Bidhut Company Limited 764,550 100 Nabil Investment Banking Ltd.
Poush 3
2 Panchakanya Mai Hydropower Ltd. (For Local)
1,100,000 100 Sunrise Capital and Nabil Investment Banking
Coming Soon
FPO
1 Butwal Power Company Limited 4,081,000 501 NMB Capital Limited Coming Soon
2 Premier Insurance Company Limited
659,565 799 NMB Capital Limited Coming Soon
Right Share Status
S.N
Ticker Ratio Units Opening Date
Closing Date
Book Closure Date
Issue Manager Status
1 GDBL 16.74% 4,609,816 12/22/2017 1/25/2018 12/1/2017 Prabhu Capital Upcoming
2 CBL 41.94% 20,740,887 12/8/2017 1/11/2018 11/21/2017 Laxmi Capital Open
3 PICL 0.07% 1,283,040 Upcoming Upcoming 12/1/2017 NIC Asia Capital Upcoming
4 GRDBL 4.44% 4,000,000 Upcoming Upcoming Laxmi Capital Upcoming
5 SADBL 42.22% 1,283,040 Upcoming Upcoming 12/13/2017 Prabhu Capital Upcoming
6 MMDBL 8.40% 345,800 11/23/2017 12/27/2017 11/3/2017 NIBL Capital Open
7 BHBL 42.22% 2,112,000 11/10/2017 12/14/2017 11/1/2017 NMB Capital Open
About Global IME Capital Limited Portfolio Management Services (PMS):
Global IME Capital Limited is set to launch the Portfolio Management Services in the near period. Investors are
offered six different products that are expected to meet the objectives, suitability of the investors. These
products include Balanced Oriented Portfolio (BOP), Income Oriented Portfolio (IOP), Systematic Portfolio
(SIP), Growth Oriented Portfolio (GOP) and Annuity Oriented Portfolio (AOP).
(
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
8 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Debt Markets
“9% NIC Asia Bank 2081/82 Debenture/Bond” coming soon. Out of total NPR. 3,000 million
of issuance, NPR. 2,400 million (80% of the issue) is set aside to be sold under Private
Placement basis and NPR. 600 million (20% of the issue) worth of debentures is offered to the
general public and mutual funds.
Two Week Repo Auction Notice by NRB
a Date of Auction 2074 Mangsir 24, Sunday, 2.00 PM
b Date of Issue 2074 Mangsir 24, Sunday
c Date of Maturity 2074 Push 09, Sunday (14 Days)
d Interest Rate 5.00 % (Please do not quote a different rate)
e Amount Offered Rs. 1000 Crore
f Bid Form Submission Link https://obss.nrb.org.np/pd
Treasury bill Auction Notice
Auction Date and Time: 2074 Mangsir 25 ( 11 December 2017 ) Monday, 2:00 P.M.
Issue Date: 2074 Mangshir 26 (12 December 2017) Tuesday.
Auction Amount and Maturity
Treasury Bill S.N. Renew From Offer Amount (Rs. In crores) Maturity Date
Renewal Fresh Total
28 days 251 247 25 300 325 25/9/2074
91 days 1390 1377 150 76 226 29/11/2074
Total 175 376 551
Bid Form Submission Link: https://obss.nrb.org.np/pd
Issue Manager: NRB Public Debt Management Department, Thapathali, Kathmandu.
Other Information: Discount earning is taxable. Out of total offered amount, 15 percent is reserved for
non-competitive bidders.
Note: Bidders should bid through Online Bidding System (OBS) only.
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
9 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2074/75
1. Economic Growth projection of Nepal:
Projections by: 2074/75 Nepal Government 7.2%
International Monetary Fund 5%
Asian Development Bank 4.7%
World Bank 4.5%
2. In the review period;
Average Inflation rate is 2.9 %, while the annual average inflation rate is targeted to be maintained
within 7 % in the fiscal year 2074/75.
Remittance inflow increased by 2.6% and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was NPR. 6.7 billion.3
3. Massive Import volume and falling remittance growth resulted Trade deficit in the first two
months of the fiscal year. However, there is Trade Surplus of Rs. 4.27 billion in the month of Ashoj.
4. Implementation Status of Monetary Policy Programmes:
Particulars FY 2074/75 Target 2074 Ashoj End Growth Broad Money Supply (M2) 18% 14.2%
Domestic Credit 27.8% 20.9%
Private Sector Credit 20% 18.5%
Particulars First Three Months (Rs. In Billion) 2073/74 2074/75
A) Liquidity Absorbed 90.25 115.4
Deposit Collection Auction (2 weeks) 26.45 -
Deposit Collection Auction (90 days) 5.05 2.45
Deposit Collection Auction (30 days) - 38.2
Reverse Repo 58.75 74.75
B) Liquidity Injected 17.76 0.3
Repo 10.01 -
Standing Liquidity Facility 7.75 0.3
5. Interbank transaction among Commercial bank stood at Rs.202.40 billions that of other financial
institutions (except among commercial bank) Rs. 7.80 billions in the review period.
6. The weighted average interest rate on 91 days Treasury bill and inter-bank rate of commercial
banks stood at 1.18 % and 1.13% respectively in the review period. Such rate was 2.12% and
3.27% in the corresponding period of previous year. The reason for fall in interest rate is due to the
excess liquidity in the review period.
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
10 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
7. The CCD ratio of Commercial Banks as on Ashoj End 2074 is 75.54 %.
8. Though the number of BFI’s has reduced after the Merger and Acquisition policy, the number of
branches of the BFI’s has gradually increased over the period.
9. As on Ashoj end 2074, the paid up capital of the Commercial banks is approx. Rs. 196.1 billion and
the net profits by the commercial banks in the first quarters is Rs.10.9 billion.
Conclusions: Overall Economic Activities of the country is Satisfactory.
10. Global Economic Outlook:
The Global Economy grew by 3.2 % in 2016. International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the world
economy to grow 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. The remarkable growth of advanced
economies like USA, Canada, Euro Zone and Japan has given hopes of positive growth of the global
economy in 2017.
Political Development
Provincial and Parliamentary election was successfully held in the country with major victory secured by CPN-UML on both Federal Parliament and Provincial Assembly, followed by Maoist Center. The unification of major political parties (UML and Maoists Center) became crucial to bring public vote and confidence. The election is key to implementation of Constitution of Nepal, 2015 and formation of a stable government that will run the country for 5 consecutive years along with the Federal government likely to boost each province. The effect of this political milestone is certainly to be felt in the economic profiles of the country as the development expenditures and various other projects are likely to take place and this will have a direct and indirect impact on the capital market of the country.
BFI's Numbers Branches
2073 Ashar 2074 Ashar 2074 Ashoj 2073 Ashar 2074 Ashar 2074 Ashoj
Commercial Banks 28 28 28 1,869 2,274 2,318
Development Banks 67 40 39 852 769 776
Finance Companies 42 28 27 175 130 136
Microfinance Companies 42 53 54 1,376 1,895 2,017
179 149 148 4,272 5,068 5,247
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
11 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Global Markets
Global Indices
S. No. Indices 26th November 7th December % Change
1 S&P 500 2,602.42 2651.5 1.89%
2 NASDAQ 6,889.16 6840.08 -0.71%
3 DJIA 23,557.99 24329.16 3.27%
4 SENSEX 33,679.24 33250.3 -1.27%
5 NIKKEI 22,550.85 22811.08 1.15%
6 FTSE 100 7409.64 7393.96 -0.21%
Global News in Brief (Source: Investing.com)
Bitcoin headlined continuing its uptrend momentum, marked $16,601 level
Gold Futures trading at 5 months low; closed at 1250.3 on Friday, while US Dollar Index
Futures rise to 93.84.
US Monthly employment report showed creation of more jobs than forecast in November. Non-
farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in November against the estimation of 200,000 jobs.
Japan expect to revise up its economic growth forecasts for the current and next fiscal years;
Data showed the economy grew twice as fast as originally estimated in the third quarter,
thanks to a business spending splurge and buoyant exports.
UK’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, somewhat higher than the economy’s speed limit - National
Institute of Economic and Social Research
The Federal Reserve proposed changes to its annual bank "stress testing" process, aiming to
give lenders significantly more information about how their portfolios may perform during
potential market shocks.
Financial regulators reached a deal on Basel III on 7th December to harmonize global banking
rule and reduce regulatory uncertainty. Rules likely to take effect from 2022.
The U.S. Senate voted to proceed to conference on tax reform legislation on 7th December.
RBI study claims major fall in cash payment after demonetization in India.
Investo-School: Oil crisis: its history and the current situation
History:
After the global financial crisis affecting many western countries which has found its path into
the euro zone at this pint of time gave rise to certain disruptive measures in the output
production of many countries. It is noteworthy that in June 2008 the price of western Texas
intermediate (WTI) was 157.73 $. This price had a massive glut of 104 US $ in January 2009
where lowest price was recorded at 52 US$.
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
12 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
Source: Macrotrends.net
This price was not a new low at all, there was record new lows at November 1998. The main
cause could be Iraq disbarment crisis.
With a little bit of history we can move on to the present and current oil glut. The price of
something goes high or catches new lows when there is fluctuation in the demand and supply.
This is the phenomena in every market which is free and has relatively less disruptions.
OPEC:
Same thing goes with oil market. But there are markets which have a power as a legal cartel to
oversee the production of crude oil basket. In the market of oil the main legal cartel is Organization for Petrol Exporting Countries, known popularly as OPEC.
Let us now move on to the characteristics of OPEC. OPEC is a permanent intergovernmental
organization consisting currently of 13 Member Countries located across the continents of
Asia, Africa, and America. Not much need to describe about the OPEC, we can conclude that its
main work is to act judiciously for eliminating unnecessary price fluctuations for steady supply
of oil which would eventually converge the supply to make sustainable income for the OPEC
member countries.
Past Situation:
The situation for oil after 2014 has been a serious matter. According to Brookings Institute at
Doha, the main country which is responsible for upswing or downswing of the prices is Saudi
Arabia .With Chinese low demand and boom in Shale oil production in USA there was a lower
demand for oil in the market. On the top of that cake, Iran which at that time had recently come
out of US sanctions, did not bother about rise in supply and announced it will not stop or slow
down production. On the other hand, Russia was also producing oil in massive scale which
increased the supply which was not matching with demand trends of 2014. Thus, the cause for
the lower prices of oil was Geo Political Issue where on one side there were Saudis and on the
other hand there were Americans, Russians and Iran.
The present situation: OPEC applying theories
Last year, in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced to cut
their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to raise global prices. OPEC nations
GICL Fortnightly Communiqué: Vol- XIII (26th November – 7th December, 2017)
13 | P a g e G L O B A L I M E C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N V E S T M E N T D E P A R T M E N T
used to produce 33.7 million barrels of oil per day. Under the deal, they’ll bring that down to
32.5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait making the biggest cuts.
According to the news, talks nearly deadlocked as Saudi officials tried to convince Iraq and
Iran to reduce production, both countries have been trying to increase oil output of late as they
emerge from war and sanctions, respectively. But in the end, they reached a compromise.
Global oil prices surged 15 percent since the announcement, with Brent crude rising from 46
US $ to 66 US $.
Year 2017: Fresh News and Announcements:
A Reuter’s survey estimated that OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 300,000 barrels per day
(bpd) compared to the previous month. It was the lowest level since May 2017. Production fell
due to the fall in output from Angola, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The decline in OPEC’s
production supported oil prices on December 5, 2017.
Year 2018 and for coming years:
According to the financial times, the world’s biggest oil producers are close to extending a deal
to curb oil production throughout 2018, OPEC ministers said on Thursday, with more work
needed to shrink swollen stockpiles and underpin prices above $60 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s
energy minister Khalid al-Falih, speaking ahead of a meeting of OPEC, Russia and other
producers that represent almost 60 per cent of global production, said the countries were in
perfect agreement as the Saudi kingdom pushes to extend their 1.8m-barrel-a-day supply cuts
throughout next year. According to the news and editorial, all are stressing about Russian
policy for oil production cuts, as they were reluctant to have a full year production cut policy.
Disclaimer: All of the content published on this Communiqué is based on internal data, publicly published
data and other available information believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is
meant for general purposed only without warranty of any kind. The information/data herein alone is not
sufficient and shouldn’t be used for the development, analysis or implementation of an investment strategy.
The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should use this research as one input into formulating an investment opinion. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review of other. This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy/sell the securities/ instruments mentioned or an official confirmation. Global IME Capital Limited is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or for any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. This report does not purport to be offer for purchase and sale of share/ units.
Investing in the stock market may have large potential risks involved in which you can lose some or all your money. You, the reader and not Global IME Capital Ltd, are solely responsible for any losses, financial or otherwise, as a result of trading stocks.
Global IME Capital Limited 3rd Floor, Rastriya Naach Ghar Jamal, Kathmandu, Nepal Contact No:. +977-01-4222460, 4261178, 4223593 Fax No.: +977-01-4222534 Email: [email protected] Website: www.globalimecapital.com