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Gibbs & Cía. S.A.C.Lloyd´s Agent since 1911
Jaime Risopatrón V. Managing Director
London Conference October 2009Presentation
WORLD CRISIS AND EFFECTS ON TRADE & CLAIMS
World production collapsesGlobal IP m/m % Growth
Commodity prices fall sharply through early 2009 Commodity price indices, current U.S. dollars, 2000=100
Industrialized countries and emerging economies stock markets indexes
WORLD GDP GROWTH
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
% World
World 3,1 -1,4 2,5
2008 2009 2010
International Monetary Fund
WORLD GDP GROWTH
-2-101234
% World
World 3 -1,7 2,8
2008 2009 2010
World Bank
Projection world GDP by:
Index of world export volume
81,0
51,065,2
87,192,4
70,8
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fisrt World War GreatDepression
Second WorldWar
First Oil Crisis Second OilCrisis
Actual Crisis
%
Percentage of the world GDP involved in recessionduring the last century
World commerce evolution in principal crisis(Level prior to crisis = 100)
Sharp declines IP across the world, especially incountries especialized in investment goodsIndustrial Production, % Change, January 2009 v/s July 2008
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
%
Latin America and the CaribbeanChile
Latin America and theCaribbean
12,3 15,9 -25 19 21 -19,5
Chile 15,3 -1,8 -23,2 22,6 30,8 -21
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009Exports Imports
Latin America and the Caribbeanevolution of commerce (Goods)
Latin America: Trade Performance by Subregions(Percentage)
Latin America: Trade Performance by Subregions(Percentage)
Crisis effects in Chile&
In the Insurance Market
Chile’s export revenues collapseUS$ Million
4,70
3,20
4,50
-2,00
5,604,60
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
-
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (p)
% % Variation
Chile GDP
Effects in ChileanInsurance Market
1,12%
4,68%
7,67%
-2,06%
-4,01%
-22,59%
-2,11%
-5,00%
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
-25,00%
-20,00%
-15,00%
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
MUS$ Jun. 2008 MUS$ Jun. 2009 Real Variation %
MUS$ Jun. 2008 116.631 168.253 263.568 52.121 34.837 71.749 48.980 295.442
MUS$ Jun. 2009 117.940 164.786 252.990 40.345 36.468 70.238 52.739 280.664
Real Variation % 1,12% -2,06% -4,01% -22,59% 4,68% -2,11% 7,67% -5,00%
Fire Earthquake Motor Marine Liability Personal AccidentCompulsory Motor
SOAP Others
Direct Premium P&C June 2008 - June 2009
Direct Loss Ratio(Percentage)
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
Inland Transit
Marine Transit
Inland Transit 61,59 54,00 60,82Marine Transit 50,26 25,97 56,61
2007 2008 2009
Effects in our BusinessAs Marine cSurveyors
Chile Cargo Exports Tonnage Variation 1st Semester 2008 & 2009
0 6.000.000 12.000.000 18.000.000
Total Tonnage13.872.791
17.572.447
Jan - May 2008
Jan - May 2009
Chile Cargo Imports Tonnage Variation - 21,05%
Number of Calling of National & International'sShips (- 9%)
TYPES OF CLAIMS
- More pilferage claims due to high unemployment.
- Slight increase in lorries highjaking, ( but still is not a big issue in Chile).
- Consignees are more reluctant to accept small damages.
- Through our strategic alliance with Mclarens Young Chilewe have seen in Commercial Line an increase in fraud cases.
- The number of Fidelity and Credit Insurace claims is higher.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Sales
239.000
145.000
Sales 2008 Projection 2009
Motor Vehicles Sales Falls 40% in National Market
Number of Motor Vehicles Imported at San Antonio PortUp to July
Vehicles Inspected at Port up to July (-81,8%)
40.135
28.733
5.100
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
2007 2008 2009
2009
2008
2007
Cars at Ports Arrivals
Stock at Yards
2008
2009
1045
1243
798
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2007 2008 2009
2007
2008
2009
Number of Cargo Inspections up to July (-35,8%)
- Reduction in Exports and Imports of Goods
- Less number of cars imported.
- Decrease of Vessels Callings at Ports.
- Fall of vehicles inspected.
- Less Number of surveys requested.
- Decrease in Marine and Motor Direct Premium.
Summary of Crisis Effect in our Business in Chile
FORECASTS
53,3
46,3
45,7
50,8
48,1
48,9
53,2
42,6
45,2
47,8
47,9
44,8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
China - PMI
Euro-zone - PMI
Germany - PMI
UK - PMI
France - PMI
USA - ISM
Points
June PointsJuly Points
June Points 53,2 42,6 45,2 47,8 47,9 44,8
July Points 53,3 46,3 45,7 50,8 48,1 48,9
China - PMI Euro-zone - PMI
Germany - PMI
UK - PMI France - PMI USA - ISM
Manufacturing Activity Index 2009
2008 and1st half 2009
World Recession
Going deep down butalive like this whale
2009 (2nd half) )
Slow recuperation like a turtle movement.
World GDP -1.5%
2010
As world GDP + 2,5% Depending on China, India and the others G20 economies….we see good sign of recovery….
Conclusion
but still are some clouds in the horizon .
THANKS
Bibliography:
http://www.eclac.org: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Document: Despite Crisis Latin America and the Caribbean Avoid Protectionism
www.worldbank.org
http://www.ccs.cl: SCC Santiago Chamber of Commerce
http://www.imf.org: IMF International Monetary Fund
http://aach.cl: Chile’s Insurer’s Association
http://www.mundomaritimo.cl: Harbour Companies