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SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR VICTORIA AND AUSTRALIA, 2016-17 (PER CENT)
VICTORIA: ENGINE ROOM OF THE NATION
3.3
0.9
3.9 3.9
2.0
0.4
1.4
0.4
Real GSP growth Real GSP per capita growth Employment growth Full-time employment growth
Victoria Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
FISCAL OUTLOOK
VICTORIAN FISCAL FORECASTS
Unit of measure
2016-17 actual
2017-18 forecast
2018-19 forecast
2019-20 forecast
2020-21 projection
2021-22 projection
Net result from transactions
$ billion 2.7 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.9
Government infrastructure investment
$ billion 9.1 11.6 13.7 10.0 8.9 7.6
Net debt $ billion 15.8 19.6 24.3 28.0 29.8 31.4
Net debt to GSP per cent 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.0
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH*
5.2
13.5
3.24.0
1.5
7.7
2.7
5.5
7.4
5.1
8.6
1.6
2.83.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
per
cen
t
Annual Revenue growth (Forecasts) Revenue growth (10 year historical average - 5.5%)
Revenue growth (forward year average - 4.0%) Revenue growth (2010-11 to 2014-15 average - 4.0% )
Forward year average – 4.0%
2011-12 to 2014-15 average – 4.0%
10 year historical average – 5.5%
Source: Budget Papers
TAXATION AND ROYALTY REVENUE PER CAPITA
OUR REVENUE BASE
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
$
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance, Interstate Budget and Budget Update Papers
VICTORIA’S REAL GSP GROWTH FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Pe
r ce
nt
Real GSP/GDP growth forecasts
Victoria's GSP - 2018-19 Budget Victoria's GSP - Deloitte Access Economics (DAE)
Australia's GDP - Commonwealth Treasury Australia's GDP - RBA
Forecast
Source: Budget Papers, Commonwealth Budget Papers, RBA, Deloitte Access Economics
VICTORIA’S WAGE GROWTH FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
per
ce
nt
Wage price index growth forecasts
Victoria's WPI - 2018-19 Budget Victoria's WPI - Deloitte Access Economics (DAE)Australia's WPI - Commonewealth Treasury
Forecast
Source: Budget Papers, Commonwealth Budget Papers, Deloitte Access Economics
ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH, 2007 TO 2017
POPULATION
0
1
2
3
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
per
cen
t
Victoria Australia
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
2018-19 Budget 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Commonwealth Treasury*
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
POPULATION GROWTH FORECASTS FOR VIC
* December year end.
Source: Budget Papers, Commonwealth Budget Papers
VICTORIAN EMPLOYMENT
A STRONG ECONOMY THAT CREATES JOBS333 900 jobs created since November 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
'00
0
Employment growth
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
3.1
4.45.0
4.55.3
5.8 5.4 5.4 5.54.6 4.7
9.1
11.6
13.7
10.0
8.9
7.6
2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22
GOVERNMENT'S RECORD INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, BILLION ($)
BUILDING NOW FOR A BETTER FUTURE
Average GII 2005-06 to 2014-15 ($4.9 billion)
Average GII 2018-19 to 2021-22 ($10.1 billion)
Source: Budget Papers
$167 million to reduce the regional payroll tax rate from 3.65 per cent to 2.425 per cent – the lowest in Australia
$55 million for the Investment Attraction Assistance Program
$51 million to attract more tourists to Victoria
$22 million in specialised support programs to help long-term unemployed Victorians
$16 million to grow agriculture exports, farms and tourism
$14 million supporting Victorian small businesses
TOTAL BUSINESS TAX CUTS, MILLION ($)
CREATING JOBS AND WORKING WITH BUSINESS
Almost $500 million to benefit Victorian businesses
246.3
742.2
2011-12 to 2014-15 2015-16 to 2018-19
Source: Budget Papers
THE RIGHT SKILLS FOR THE JOB
With the right skills and training, Victorians can get the jobs they need for their future
$304 million for new TAFE and training places
$172 million to make training at TAFE free for priority courses
$120 million for three regional TAFE upgrades and better facilities for TAFE students
$109 million to assist students get the right career advice so they can make the right choices early on
$50 million for the Head Start Apprenticeships and Traineeships initiative
$44 million transforming apprenticeships to drive job opportunities in the modern economy
$26 million for secondary vocational pathways
$4.3 billion for better roads around Victoria
$4.2 billion in additional investment in our health and mental health system
$2.8 billion investment in schools
$1.9 billion for public transport
$858 million to continue Roadmap to Reform
$689 million for the Lara Prison Precinct
$266 million to protect our environment
$248 million to boost court capacity and fund more prosecutors
$242 million boost for women’s and community sport
$231 million to redevelop some of our most loved sporting venues
$115 million for police, prevention and protection
THE 2018/19 BUDGETThe Budget funds $9.4 billion in new output measures and up to $9.3 billion in new capital measures
A STRONGER, FAIR VICTORIA
Addressing energy and cost-of-living pressures
$48 million for the Power Saving Bonus – $50 payment to all Victorian households if they seek out a better electricity deal
$22 million to expand the Utility Relief Grants Scheme, which will increase the payment cap from $500 to $650
$172 million to make training at TAFE free for priority courses
RECORD INVESTMENT IN REGIONAL AND RURAL VICTORIA
TOTAL REGIONAL INVESTMENT*
* Includes the total value of output and asset related announcements made in Budget and Budget Update every financial year
2,771
1,656
830
1,953
1,331
3,383
4,470 4,387
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
$ m
illio
n
Source: Budget Papers