Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
G F ENERGY LLC
Getting Real About Global Warming
Roger W. Gale
President & CEO
GF Energy
EPICC
28 April 2009
G F ENERGY LLC
Paradigm
Every era has its defining deadly issue….and evil forces
From The Cold War
to
a hot war
called
Global Warming
An issue that is someone else’s fault and for someone else to fix….but threatens to exterminate us all….
EPICC Global Warming 3
G F ENERGY LLC
Power
“…a power grab over all that
burns, breathes, burps, flies,
drives and passes gas.”
Jonah Goldberg, Los Angeles Times, April 2009
EPICC Global Warming 4
G F ENERGY LLC
Know
The earth is significantly
warming.
Humans are responsible for
some of the heating.
Some of the effects are negative.
China, India, etc. are increasing
carbon emissions.
OECD countries are moving
toward lower emissions.
The US and Canada are inefficient
energy-users.
The Kyoto efforts to limit carbon emissions have
failed.
We are not ready to hit the issue
head-on.
EPICC Global Warming 5
G F ENERGY LLC
Agree
“We have an agreement that there should be an agreement,”
said Mr. Blair, dressed in a white polo shirt, blue cargo shorts and
Nike sneakers.
“But there’s no agreement on what that agreement should be.”
March 2008 comment by Tony Blair on global climate
EPICC Global Warming 6
G F ENERGY LLC
Knowing…and…Acting
EPICC Global Warming 7
G F ENERGY LLC
Life
“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.”
George F. Burns quotes (American comedian 1896-1996)
EPICC Global Warming 8
G F ENERGY LLC
Enable
“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.”
Antoine de Saint-Exupery quotes (French Pilot, Writer and Author of The Little Prince, 1900-1944)
EPICC Global Warming 9
G F ENERGY LLC
Faith
The worst prognoses don't come true,
we are rational enough
to keep the worst from happening.
Adaptation happens.
EPICC Global Warming 10
G F ENERGY LLC
Interpreting
Global Warming:
Distant in time,
Distant in space…
unless you happen to be on the edge already.
EPICC Global Warming 11
G F ENERGY LLC
Affluence
The richer everyone gets,
the greener the planet will be
in the long run.
EPICC Global Warming 12
G F ENERGY LLC
Motivation
People and institutions react to:
firm,
durable,
significant,
direct,
non-avoidable,
enforceable financial obligations
affecting
core behaviors and commitments.
EPICC Global Warming 13
G F ENERGY LLC
Perversity
People and institutions
love delaying action
and
get great pleasure out of
watching others take the heat.
EPICC Global Warming 14
G F ENERGY LLC
Polarize
This has emerged as a two-sided issue.
1. What problem? people
2. Disaster-fatalists
3. We need strong effective engagement people to keep the worst from happening
EPICC Global Warming 15
G F ENERGY LLC
Extrapolation
Katrina Example
EPICC Global Warming 16
G F ENERGY LLC
Question
What motivates and incentivizespeople?
EPICC Global Warming 17
G F ENERGY LLC
The California Thermostat Battle
Customer Control Utility Control
Customer
incentivized to
use less, pay
less, be responsible
Utility manages,
gets credit, replaces
lost KWh sales
EPICC Global Warming 18
G F ENERGY LLC
EPICC Global Warming 19
Envisioning…
G F ENERGY LLC
Today
Where are we today?
Turning onto the road?
Down the road?
Looking for the road?
EPICC Global Warming 20
G F ENERGY LLC
Conclusions
There are going to be “edge” emergencies
Affluence fixes a lot of things
The transition away from fossil fuels is starting
Mostly capital formation driven
Long term issue with faulty short term tools
Hysteria masks path to success
Global warming is a real issue
EPICC Global Warming 21
G F ENERGY LLC
Mantra
“…we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming.”—Al Gore
“It's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”—Barak Obama
EPICC Global Warming 22
G F ENERGY LLC
Perspective
Global Warming
is the biggest threat to the
planet we have ever faced.
EPICC Global Warming 23
Pew Center January 2009
G F ENERGY LLC
EPICC Global Warming 24
Action…
G F ENERGY LLC
F A I L E D
EPICC Global Warming 25
G F ENERGY LLC
Failed
Kyoto Protocol Signers EU
Japan
Canada
Uncommitted US
China
India
EPICC Global Warming 26
G F ENERGY LLC
Why
We don’t know what the issue is…
Messianic
Royal Lie
Emergency
Historic transformation
Personal epiphany
Practical problem
Response to affluence
EPICC Global Warming 27
G F ENERGY LLC
Paradise
EPICC Global Warming 28
G F ENERGY LLC
Us
EPICC Global Warming 29
G F ENERGY LLC
EPICC Global Warming 30
Specifics…
G F ENERGY LLC
Options
1. Cap-and-trade—everywhere
2. Carbon tax—Only BC
EPICC Global Warming 31
G F ENERGY LLC
Wrong Tools
Cap and trade is a cop-out:
like Catholic indulgences
avoids tough actions
free credits destroy credibility
uneven impact
takes the heat off politicians
EPICC Global Warming 32
G F ENERGY LLC
Free
Cap-and-trade is based on free riders
and making somebody else
change their behavior
“I’ll pay you…so I don’t have to….”
EPICC Global Warming 33
G F ENERGY LLC
Taxes
Taxes are (if done right) unavoidable
and
(if set right) behavior altering
EPICC Global Warming 34
G F ENERGY LLC
Next…
EPICC Global Warming 35
G F ENERGY LLC
Trends
Smaller populations
More efficient technologies
More electrification
Less fossil power
More efficient cars
An affluent responsible world
EPICC Global Warming 36
G F ENERGY LLC
Campbell
EPICC Global Warming 37
Carbon Tax:
“It’s a tax that increases our competitiveness.
…If your choice is to waste energy it will cost you more….”
--Gordon Campbell, Business in Vancouver, April 2009
G F ENERGY LLC
BC
Rev-up the climate tax
Make BC a model
Use efficiency tools effectively
Change BC Hydro incentives
EPICC Global Warming 38
G F ENERGY LLC
Conclusion
Global warming is real
There will be emergencies
We are passing the buck
It’s everyone’s responsibility
BC can be a leader
EPICC Global Warming 39
G F ENERGY LLC
Take-Away
EPICC Global Warming 40
Is your behavior changing?
G F ENERGY LLC
GF Energy, LLC
Management Counsel and Strategy
www.gfenergy.com
Roger W. Gale
President & CEO
