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GETTING INTO AND
OUT OF HOT WATER
Peter F Gill
1
MELANIE PHILLIPS, DAILY MAIL,
12 JANUARY 2004
“The claim of man-made global
warming represents the decent of
science from the pursuit of truth into
politicised propaganda. The fact that
it is endorsed by the top scientist in
British government shows how deep
the rot has gone.”
2
THE INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS, CLIMATE
CHANGE PREDICTION, 2005
“This paper, produced on behalf of the Institute of
Physics by Professor Alan J. Thorpe, explains how
predictions of future climate change are made using
climate models. It is hoped that the paper will
increase believability in these models and be
persuasive that anthropogenic activity is likely to be
causing global warming. It aims to convince policy-
makers, the general public and the scientific
community that the threats posed by global climate
change are real”
3
Richard S. Lindzen, CCNet 45/06 -
13 March 2006
A question rarely asked, but nonetheless important,
is whether the promotion of alarmism is really good
for science? The situation may not be so remote from
the impact of Lysenkoism on Soviet genetics.
However, personally, I think the future will view the
response of contemporary society to 'global
warming' as simply another example of the
appropriateness of the fable of the Emperor's New
Clothes. For the sake of the science, I hope that
future arrives soon.
4
CRUDE ESTIMATE OF CURRENT GREENHOUSE EFFECT
TSFC = Te 4
Where: TSFC is temperature of air near Earth’s surface Te is the effective infrared radiation emission temperature Г is an average transmittance of infrared radiation The simplification wrongly ignores other heat transfer mechanisms Thorpe estimates Te ≅ 255K With current concentrations of greenhouse gases Thorpe estimates Г at 0.2 Inserting these figures results in TSFC ≅ 287K or about 14
0C
5
CURRENT RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS
TO GREENHOUSE EFFECT
• Water vapour 95.00%• Carbon Dioxide 3.62%• Methane 0.36%• Nitrous Oxide 0.95%• Other 0.07%NB Anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric
carbon dioxide is about 4% of total which
equates to around 0.15% of GHE.
6
WATER VAPOUR
• As water vapour is by far the most important greenhouse gas changes in the amount in the
atmosphere are likely to be more important than
similar percentage changes in carbon dioxide
• Evaporation of ocean water is a function of temperature, solar irradiance and wind. For a fixed
temperature the latter two factors predominate.
• Link between carbon dioxide and water vapour is mainly ocean temperature.
7
CARBON DIOXIDE• Not a pollutant• Essential for life
• It is a fiction that the pre-industrial content was constant and ideal at 290ppm
• Recent Earth’s history (last 600 million years) shows7000ppm down to 500ppm in Paleozoic
Range 1000 - 2500ppm in Mesozoic
From 1000ppm down to 400ppm in Cenozoic
• Current level is lowest since the end of the Paleozoic• Oceans contain 60 times present atmospheric level
8
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 OVER GEOLOGIC TIME
Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).Temperature after C.R. Scotese http://www.scotese.com/climate.htmCO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)
9
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC CO2
LEVELS & EXCHANGES
• 2,700 gigatons CO2 in atmosphere (380ppm)• Current exchanges with biosphere & oceans
at 440 and 330 gigatons respectively totalling
770 gigatons
• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions currently circa 26 gigatons
• IPCC summary documents mention residence time of CO2 in atmosphere at 50 – 250 years
10
Effective atmospheric CO2 lifetimeThe effective lifetime for CO2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes.
All measurements with different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO2, only ca.5 - 6 years .
Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998) 11
12
13
CO2 VALUE OF 290 ppmv selected by
Callendar is now used in models
Encircled values were selected by Callendar
Redrawn after Fonselius et al.. 1956.
14
Callendar used only 1%
of >90 000 CO2 measurements
without such selection
between 1812 to 1962 (Beck, 2006)
19th century CO2 concentration
averaged 335 ppmv(Slocum, 1955)
Siple Station Ice Core Data Shifted 82
Years
*************************************************************************CO2
Date of Date air concentration inDepth Samples ice enclosed extracted air(m) measured (yr AD) (yr AD) (ppmv)
187.0-187.3 10 1663 1734-1756 279177.0-177.3 10 1683 1754-1776 279162.0-162.3 9 1723 1794-1819 280147.0-147.2 10 1743 1814-1836 284128.0-129.0 47 1782 1842-1864 288111.0-112.0 26 1812 1883-1905 297102.0-103.0 26 1832 1903-1925 30092.0-93.0 25 1850 1921-1943 30682.0-83.0 28 1867 1938-1960 31176.2-76.6 11 1876 1947-1969 31272.4-72.7 11 1883 1954-1976 31868.2-68.6 8 1891 1962-1983 328
*************************************************************************
15
(BERN GROUP: Neftel et al., 1985; Friedli et al. 1986). The age of air bubbles in SIPLE ice deposited in 18 91 was „corrected” by 82 years to 1973 .
All Siple datashifted 82 years
5 bars
15 bars
328 ppmv in 1891
Decrease of CO 2due to formation ofclathrates at pressureabove 5 bars
MOTHER OF ALL CO 2 HOCKEY CURVES: SIPLE, ANTARCTICA
CO2 solubility incresed with depth 3 times
16
17
BECK, 2007. Energy & Environment, 18:259-282
90 000 CO2 CHEMICAL MEASUREMENTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, 1812 - 1961
(ACCURACY 1 TO 3%). MOST IGNORED BY CALLENDAR
proxy
SIPLE ice core
Mauna Loa
1855
19421820
direct chemical
THESE DIRECT ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS ARE IGNORED BY IPCC
INSTEAD PROXY ICE CORE DATA ARE USED, WHICH ARE ARTEFACTS
PROXY DATA IS ONLY INDICATIVE
• Zbigniew Jaworowski has shown that carbon dioxide content of ancient atmospheres
deduced from ice cores is unreliable
• ZJ cites around 20 processes (physical, chemical and physical chemical) cause CO2
depletion relative to O2 & N2
• ZJ estimates that 30-50% (variable) of CO2 is lost from ice inclusions
• It is clear that ‘short term’ detail is lost
18
RECENT PAST RAPID CHANGES IN
CO2 LEVELS
• 1820 – 1847 Average change -32 gigatons/yr• 1855 – 1868 Average change -44 gigatons/yr• 1942 – 1953 Average change -78 gigatons/yr• It follows that the variability of carbon dioxide
emission and absorption by natural processes
exceed current anthropogenic emissions
19
AREAS FOR MORE RESEARCH
• Sun – Earth interactions
• Earth’s Heat transfer mechanisms • Mechanisms for changes of water evaporation rates
from oceans, soils, vegetation etc.
• Clouds• Mechanisms for changes in carbon dioxide (natural)
sinks
• Mechanisms for changes in residence times of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
20
END OF PRESENTATION
21
Timescales and mechanisms of climate
change
• Four timescales to consider:
– Tectonic (millions of years)– Orbital (hundreds of thousands of years)– Millennial (thousands of years)– Decadal (tens of years)
• Different predominant mechanism driving the change depending upon timescale
22
Timescale Predominant driving mechanism
Rate of climate change
Tectonic Plate tectonics, volcanic activity
Changes occurring over millions of years
Orbital Changes in position of Earth’s orbit around sun
100,000’s to 1000’s years (e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles)
Millennial Solar variability, changes in ocean circulatory patterns (THC)
1000’s to
Changes in atmospheric CO2 over tectonic timescale
a) results from Geocarb model (Berner, 2004)
b) results from fossil soil carbonates (Ekart et al., 1999)
Approx. present day
values
2050 values
24
Changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature over orbital timescales
Pre-
industrial
levels
Petit et al., 1999, Nature,
Currently at
380 ppmv
25
26
CO2 IN AIR 6800 TO 8700 YEARS B.P.. BASED ON STOMATA OF FOSSIL BIRCH LEAVES FROM DENMARK,
AND ON ICE CORE FROM TAYLOR DOME, ANTARCTICA (LEFT LINE). AFTER WAGNER ET AL., 2002.
stomataIce core
difference up to
>60 ppmv
Holocene Warm Period
27
CHEMICAL MEASUREMENTS OF CO2 CONCENTRATION IN AIR (BECK, 2007),
AGREE WITH
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS AT 5 ANTARCTIC SITES (SCHNEIDER et al. 2006)
temperature
5 ice cores
CO2 chemical
1820
1855
19421990
Schneider et al. STRANGE CONCLUSION (black thick line):
„ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 0.2OC SINCE THE LATE 19TH
CENTURY”.
IN FACT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT CHANGE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 19TH CENTURY.
BOOKS THAT TELL A DIFFERENT STORY “Air Con” - The Seriously Inconvenient Truth about Global Warming Ian Wishart, Howling at the Moon Publishing Ltd 200 9 ISBN 978-0-9582401-4-7 “Red Hot Lies” Christopher C Horner, Regnery Publishing, Inc. 2008 ISBN 978-1-59698-538-4 “An Appeal to Reason – A Cool Look at Global Warmin g” Nigel Lawson, Duckworth Overlook 2008 ISBN 978-0-7156-378 6-9 “Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years” S Fred Singer & Dennis T Avery, Rowman & Littlefield Publi shers, Inc 2007 ISBN 978-0-7425-5116-9 “The Deniers” Lawrence Solomon, Richard Vigilante B ooks 2008 ISBN 978-0-9800763-1-8 “Cool It – The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide t o Global Warming” Bjorn Lomborg Marshal Cavendish Ltd 2007 ISBN 978-0-462-09912-5 “Climate Confusion” Roy W Spencer, Encounter Books 2008 ISBN 978-1-59403-210-3 “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism” Christopher C. Horner, Regnery Publishing, Inc. 2007 ISBN 978-1-59698-501-8 “Scared to Death” Christopher Booker & Richard Nort h, Continuum Books 2007 ISBN 0-8264-8614-2; 978-0-8264 -8614-1 All the above are available from Amazon 28