Getting ahead of the wildfire problem:

Linking operational fire response to landscape planning objectives

Kit O’Connor1, Jessica Haas1, Dave Calkin1, Matt Thompson2

USFS RMRS Risk Management Team

1Missoula MT, 2Fort Collins CO

christopheroconnor@fs.fed.us

“The mission of the USDA Forest Service is to sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present

and future generations.”

“The mission of the USDA Forest Service is to sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present

and future generations.”

FRR = Forest and Rangeland Research; S&PF = State and Private Forestry; NFS = National Forest System; CI&M =

Capital Improvement and Maintenance; LA = Land Acquisition; and WFM = Wildland Fire Management

Hoover 2016, CBO

FRR = Forest and Rangeland Research; S&PF = State and Private Forestry; NFS = National Forest System; CI&M =

Capital Improvement and Maintenance; LA = Land Acquisition; and WFM = Wildland Fire Management

Hoover 2016, CBO

FRR = Forest and Rangeland Research; S&PF = State and Private Forestry; NFS = National Forest System; CI&M =

Capital Improvement and Maintenance; LA = Land Acquisition; and WFM = Wildland Fire Management

Hoover 2016, CBO

What if we leveraged fire response (following the money) to get where we want to go?

Supporting the tenets of the Cohesive Strategy:

How can wildfire response promote:

• Restoring and maintaining of resilient landscapes

• Creation of fire-adapted communities

Aligning public expectations:

Operational fire incident objectives

that protect

• Life

• Resources

• Assets

The Challenge

Image credit: https://www.pinterest.com/leelindsey44/wildland-firefighter/

Aligning public expectations:

Operational fire incident objectives

that protect

• Life

• Resources

• Assets

With Agency mission:

planning for land management

that promotes

• Adaptation

• Accountability

• Living with fire

• Sustainable management of forests (by including the keystone process of fire)

The Challenge

Image credit: https://www.pinterest.com/leelindsey44/wildland-firefighter/

Proposed new model of pre-fire planning

Formalize integration of risk management principles into the forest and fire management plan revision processes:

• Zone landscapes by fire tolerance and management objectives.

• Develop flexible operational units to manage fire.

• Provide consistent risk and science-based rationale for fire management decisions.

Thompson et. al 2016

Thompson et. al 2016

Thompson et. al 2016

Process to integrate wildfire risk assessment with spatial fire planning and response

O’Connor et al. 2016

Step 1: Understand fire effects in the system: Integrated Risk Assessment

Effects

Risk

Step 1: Understand fire effects in the system: Integrated Risk Assessment

Effects

Risk

Exposure & Effects Analysis Scott et al. 2013 GTR 315

Wildfire Risk Key Components (Conceptual)

Wildfire Risk Key Components (Applied)

HVRAs

• Human Habitation

• Major Infrastructure

• Range Land Values

• Recreation Resources

• Wildlife Habitat

• Timber

• Tribal Lands

• Watershed

• Ecosystem Function

Effects Analysis Defining Response Functions

Strong benefit at low fire intensity decreasing to a strong loss at very high fire intensity.

Loss increases from slight loss at low intensity to strong loss at very high intensity.

Moderate to strong loss as fire intensity increases.

Human Habitation

18%

Major Infrastructure

12%

Range Land Values

6%

Recreation Resources

9%

Wildlife Habitat

9%

Timber 7%

Tribal Lands 6%

Watershed 18%

Ecosystem Function

15%

Decision Analysis Weighting of Relative Importance

Risk Transmission & Source

• Fire Spread

• WUI Issues

• Neighbors

Spatial Risk Results

Step 2: Develop an operational network of control opportunities

Potential wildfire Operational Delineations (PODs)

Operational units can be classified by risk-based strategic objectives

• Depending upon the point of ignition: measured response tailored to short and long-term objectives.

• Risk-based process to support fire management decisions.

• Justification of “management of wildfire to meet resource objectives.”

Planning

Planning PODs

(pPODS)

• Strategic

• Emphasis on long-term mgt. objectives

• Risk-based conceptual burn blocks

Response

Response PODs (rPODS)

• Flexible • incident-tailored

response that aligns with strategic planning

Two components

Identify and engage with a receptive audience

Tonto NF example

• Limited history of managing fire.

• Rough terrain, difficult to suppress fire.

• Safety concerns for fire responders

• Support from the RO to try something new.

• Experience with managed fire on other forests.

Application:

How to do this?

Predictive model of potential fire control locations based on past fires

Natural and constructed landscape features • Topography (complexity and position) • Slope, aspect, soils • Fuel type and density • Fuel/vegetation variability • Developed features (roads, infrastructure) • Barriers (rivers, lakes, impervious

surfaces)

Operational response effort • Resistance to control (Dillon et al. 2011,

2015) • Suppression difficulty index (SDI)

(Rodriguez y Silva et al. 2014) • Travel cost (accessibility to personnel

and equipment) Physical fire behavior • Rate of spread (FlamMap, Finney 2006)

Tonto NF Arizona, USA

O’Connor et al. 2017

Incorporates:

Machine learning model selects best predictors of final fire perimeter

Joseph Bradley and Manish Made, 2015

Averages results from thousands of individual regression trees • captures predictor

interactions • balance model fit with

prediction accuracy (Elith et al.

2008). 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Distance from ridgeline

Distance from valley

Resistance to control (FPA)

Distance from flat

Suppression_difficulty

Distance from non-burnable

Rate of Spread (90th pct)

Travel_Cost (foot)

Distance from highway

Relative influence

Rank of Fire Perimeter Predictors

Modelled potential fire perimeter locations are a proxy for control opportunities. Function of: • Accessibility • Fuels (type and transition) • Natural barriers • Topography Model correctly classifies ~80% of fire perimeters from 1984-2012 (training data) Validated on subset (random 10%) of data

90th percentile fire weather example

Probability of fire perimeter

Field validation and update

Atlas of all possibilities

Prioritize control points by likelihood of success

Connector

Atlas of all possibilities

Repeating the 2016 single fire planning process for a whole forest

Repeating the 2016 single fire planning process for a whole forest

Translate the science into a plan

• Line officers

• Resource specialists

• Fire staff

• Develop language that suits everyone involved

• Roads • Fuel

transitions • Ridges or

valleys • Non-burnable

surfaces • Rate of spread • Resistance to

control

• Connect these into PODs

• Smaller PODs near highly valued resources

• POD boundaries can extend beyond forest boundary where necessary

Develop network of best available control locations from the Potential Control Location (PCL) Atlas

Planning PODs: Integrate the spatial wildfire risk output with defensible fire management locations

*

*Example based on 90th percentile fire weather conditions

Wildfire risk-based objectives grouped with strategic objectives reflected in the Landscape planning documents

Define both planning direction and strategic response strategies

Prior to fire season: Planning PODs can be used to: -Engage the public and partners -Discuss values at risk -Desired fire response Identify areas for priority treatments to expand a functional POD network and locations where additional stakeholder engagement may be necessary.

Integration with WFDSS

Wildfire risk-informed strategic response zones and their POD building blocks meet the requirements for spatial fire planning and provide a direct link between language in the Forest Plan and operational fire management.

2016 spatial fire plan for the Tonto

FMUs define Strategic Objectives and Management Requirements

Shape/FMU Type Strategic Objective/Management Requirement

1A

Strat Obj

Standard and Guidelines for the Tonto portion of Pine Mountain Wilderness will be adopted from Prescott National Forest Land and Resource Management plan since the Prescott assumes responsibility for management of this wilderness.

1B

Strat Obj

All suppression efforts will emphasize minimum impact strategies. Use of mechanized equipment for fireline construction is discouraged. Where use is necessary, rehabilitation will be implemented.

Sonoran Desert Mgmt Req

Wildland Fire occurring within the Sonoran Desert and riparian communities will receive an appropriate management response. Suppression strategy is to minimize damage within this ecosystem.

Recreation Sites Mgmt Req

Prevent Wildland Fire from destroying developed recreation improvements, including a five-chain wide buffer surrounding them.

Strategic objectives can be transferred to planning PODs

During active incident management

Response PODs: Flexible building blocks No single optimized solution Atlas to determine alternative strategies

During active incident management

• PCL atlas used to facilitate communication with IMTs and regional partners

• Visually represent response strategy options during team rotations and communications to the public.

• Use of different fire weather scenarios allows response strategies to change with the conditions on the ground.

During active incident management

• PCL atlas used to facilitate communication with IMTs and regional partners

• Visually represent response strategy options during team rotations and communications to the public.

• Use of different fire weather scenarios allows response strategies to change with the conditions on the ground.

Fire Season 2017

• Technical assistance to the Tonto for weather-specific simulations.

• RVS simulation of 2016-2017 1-hr fuel changes

• We’ll see how it goes

• This is an experiment with an informed and engaged subject • May be success, may be failure, definitely will be learning…

Some parting thoughts:

• Suite of tools to make informed, landscape-scale fire response decisions.

• Designed to improve upon the planning process both before and during an incident.

• Requires interpretation and deliberation to generate a plan that improves efficiency, safety, and both short and long-term outcomes.

Questions?