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Germany 2030Future perspectives for value creation
Germany 2030Future perspectives for value creation
Content
06 Foreword
07 Preliminaryremarks
08 1. Managementsummary
12 2. Procedure
18 3. Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation
26 4. Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
76 5. Paradigmshiftinvaluecreation
80 6. FutureopportunitiesforvaluecreationinGermany81 6.1 Recommendationsforinnovationpolicygearedtovaluecreation92 6.2 Recommendationsforinnovationculturegearedtovaluecreation
100 Listofallfigures
102 Glossaries
110 Editorialinformation
06Foreword
InthisstudytheBDIislookingtothefuture:theBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,composedofexpertsfrombusinessenterprisesandBDImemberassociations,submitsitsassessmentsforthefutureofvaluecreationinGermany2030.ThestudywascommissionedbytheBDI/BDACommitteeforResearch,InnovationandTechnologyPolicyandwassupportedbyZ_punkt,aninstituteconcernedwithstrategicquestionsofthefuture.Theresultsgobeyondtheextrapolationoftrendsorthecondensingofexistingstudiesonfutureresearch.TheanalysisfocusesonthedisruptionsandpossibledevelopmentswhichcouldhaveamajorimpactonthemannerandtheextentofwhatweinGermanyproduceandconsume.Inconcreteterms:whatradicaltechnological,econom-icandsocialchangescanbeexpectedby2030andwhatpossibleeffectscantheyhaveonvaluecreationandjobsinGermany?Howcantheopportunitiesbegraspedandtherisksminimised?Howshouldtheoverallpoliticalframeworkbedevised,especiallywithregardtothepromotionofresearch?
Thesequestionsrequireanongoingdiscussioninthebusinesscommunity,academia,societyandamongpolicy-makerstowhichthisstudyseekstomakeacontribution.Whateverthediversityofthejudgementsandconclusionsexpressed,theyallsharethecommongoalofstrengtheningGermanyasanindustrialnationforthefuture.
Prof. Dr. Dr. Andreas BarnerChairmanBDI/BDACommitteeforResearch,InnovationandTechnologyPolicy
Dr. Reinhold AchatzChairmanBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”
Dieter SchweerMemberoftheExecutiveBoardFederationofGermanIndustries(BDI)
06 |07Preliminary remarks
ThestudywascommissionedbytheBDI/BDACommitteeforRe-search,InnovationandTechnologyPolicy.Itwascarriedoutbythemembersoftheworkinggroupon“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,whichwassetupbythecommitteeandwassup-portedbyZ_punkt,TheForesightCompany,aconsultancyforstrategicquestionsofthefuture.
ThecontentsarenottobeidentifiedwithexistingBDIpositions,nordothestatements,assessmentsandrecommendationsofindividualauthorsorgroupsofauthorsreflecttheopinionsofallauthorsorofthebusinessenterprisestheyrepresent.
Constitutingadiscussionpaper,thecontentsreflecttheevaluationsandconclusionswhichcallforadebateonthefutureofvaluecreationinGermany.Thestudyseekstomakeacontributiontothediscussionoftheopportunitiesandrisksposedbytechnologicalchangeinbusiness,politicsandsociety.Thepaperisaimedatallinterestedpartiesinthegeneralpublicandwasthusdeliberatelywritteningenerallyunderstandablelanguageandwithanextensiveglossary.
081.Management Summary
ThenuclearcatastropheofFukushimaandGermany’sswitchinenergypolicyareaclarioncall:Germany,Europeandtheworldareundergoingaphaseofrapidchange.Thedynamismwhichhasbuiltupinthefinanceandcurrencyareas,inecologicalanddemographicquestions,addedtothehighvolatilityinmanyeconomicandsocialfields,allthesefactorspointtoafutureinwhichchangewillnotbetheexceptionbuttherule,afuturefullofturmoilandupheavals.Thatisthebasicassumptionofthisstudy.
Whattechnical,economicandsocialupheavalscanbeexpectedby2030?AndwhatpossibleimpactwilltheyhaveonvaluecreationinGermany?Inpresentingthisqualitativelyorientedforward-lookingstudy,the“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”workinggroupoftheBDI,supportedbyZ_punktTheForesightCompany,isconsciouslybreakingnewground1.TheprimaryobjectiveistoassesstheopportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreationoverthenexttwodecadesandtoinitiateabroadlybaseddiscussiononhowvaluecreationandconsequentlyjobscanbepreservedinGermanyonasustainablebasis.
Intheprocessitbecomesclearthatnewformsofconstructiveandcooperativeinteractionbetweenpolitics,societyandindustryarenecessary.Thiscooperationshouldalsofindexpressioninviablefuturebusinessmodelsforenterprises.Themostimportantfindingsofthestudy:
Classicalboundariesbetweensectorsaredisappearing.Newcompre-hensivespheresofactivityandformsofcooperationareemerging.Withregardtohealth,forexample,thefocusisontheindividualwithinlargegroupsofpatients,hisgeneticmake-up,hisbehaviour,andhisownindividualenvironment.Personalisedmedicinetakesaccountofthesefactors.Inresearch,interdisciplinarythinkingisfinallywinningthrough.Branchesnolongerregardeachotherasalienbutcooperateprovidedthattheycanparticipateinacommonbusinessmodel.Tailor-madesupplypackagesofproductsandservicesarewinningground.Theclassicsectorsareincreasingly
1 Alongwiththeshortversion,aspresentedinthisbrochure,adownloadoftheGermanlongversionisavailable:www.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie.htm
1.ManagementSummary
08 |09
losingimportance.Intheareasofhealth,nutritionandcosmetics,forexample,newtarget-orientedalliancesareemerging.
Valuecreationin2030demandsasystemicandintegratedunder-standingofinnovation.Mobility,forexample:thecentre-stageisnolongertakenbytheautomobileasasymbolofindividualtransportbutbytheprovisionofintelligentmobilitywhichtranscendsindividualmodesoftransport.Itisimperativetodecideonqualityobjectives:whatkindofmobilitydoweactuallywant,atwhatpriceandonwhatconditions?Newplayersareenteringthemarket:producersofpost-fossilpropulsionsystemsorbatteries,energyandITsuppliers.Municipalitiesandregionsaretakingonmoreresponsibilityandareredefiningpublictransportasanintegralpartofinternationalmobility.Networkedinformationservicesarebringingaboutseamlessmobilityencompassingallmodesoftransport.
Omnipresentinformationdisseminationwilltendtowinthroughinallsectorsandareasoflife.An“InternetofThings”willcomeintobeingwherenotonlyhumanbeingsbutalsoobjectswillexchangeinforma-tionautonomously.Theoutlookisforanautonomousandglobalcontrolofdecentralisedproductionprocessesinrealtime.Thephysicalandthedigitalworldwillbelinked.Knowledge-basedsystemshelptocontrolcomplexity.Theblendingofthesystemsharboursimmensepotential–butalsorisks.Infuture,ITsecuritywillplayamajorrole.
Thevaluecreationofthenexttwodecadeswillultimatelybeshapedbysustainablesolutions.Germanyisanindustrialnationwithfewrawmaterials.Securityofsupplyisandwillremainanissuewithhighpriority.Whetheritbetheswitchinenergypolicy,theenhancingofresourcesefficiencyorrecyclingloopsystems,asustainableinnova-tionstrategywilltakeaccountofmany-sidedandunconventionalapproaches.Andtherearedefinitelyexportopportunitiesintheareaofsustainableinfrastructure.Thatappliestopowerstationtechnolo-gies,storagesystemsinthecontextofthesmartgridandtoenergyefficiency–growthmarketsofthe21stcentury.
10
Futurebusinesslogicrequiresaneworientationofstakeholderandcustomerrelations.Eventoday,customercommunitiesintheinternetalreadyexerciseconsiderableinfluence.Theirstrengthliesintheopennessoftheircommunication.Positionsinthemarketplace–ofproducers,suppliers,customersandNGOs–arealreadyshifting.Businessenterprisescanfallvictimtothisdynamism,buttheycanalsouseittotheirownadvantage.Successwillcometothosecapableofforgingnewalliances.Butanoteofcautionmustbeadded:asaresultofgrowingcomplexity,itisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttocontrolprocesses.Thatisanotherreasonwhyemotionalbondingforcustomerandbrandissoimportant.Future-orientedproductsandservices,foranageingsocietyforexample,requirecommunicationwhichextendsnotonlybeyondsectoralboundariesbutalsoincludesthecustomerasaninnovator.
Changeisfrequentlytriggeredbynewdiscoveriesinscienceandtechnology.Yetimplementationinthemarkettakesplaceonlyonconditionthattheproperinfrastructure,environmentandbusinessmodelsareallinplace.Thatiswhytheopportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation2030maketheirpresencefeltnotleastinthelabourmarket.Itisthehumanbeingwhoisatthecentreofthebusinessworld.Forhimtheremustbeabridgefromtheoldtothenewworldofemployment.
|111.ManagementSummary
10
Figure 1: Value creation and employment effects
Potential hazards
Opportunities
Exploiting opportunities for employment effects
Value creation
12
Changeisomnipresent.Itispickingupspeedanditscomplexityisincreasing,somuchisapparentinallbranchesofindustry.Uncer-taintyisafeatureofthebusinessenvironment,bothincompetitionandinthemarkets.AndGermany’seconomyisinterlockedwiththeglobaleconomytoaspecialdegree.Socialandeconomicupheavalsinthecomingtwodecadesarealreadymakingthemselvesfelt.Theywillleadtoradicalchangesintheprocessesofvaluecreation.Aplanningprojectionwouldthereforeseemtobeindispensable.Andyet,howdohighvolatility,anuncertainoverallframeworkandthedevelopmentofafuture-orientedinnovationpolicyallfittogether?AndwhatdoesthatmeanforthevaluecreationoftheGermaneconomy?
ThatisthebackgroundagainstwhichtheBDIworkinggroup“Innova-tionStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”awardedthecommissionforthepresentstudy2toZ_punktTheForesightCompany.TheresultsarebasedonamethodologicalapproachspeciallydevelopedbyZ_punktandonintensiveandconstructivediscussionswiththemembersoftheworkinggroup.
2 Forthelongversionseefootnoteonp.8
2.Procedure
Figure 2: Project design
TrendsCurrenttrendsofvaluecreation
Areas of activityCross-sectoralcategoriesofneed
DisruptionsCandidatesforbreaksintrends
|132.Procedure
12
Thechangesalreadymakingthemselvesfeltarefrequentlyofadisruptivenature–bydefinitiontheycannotbepredicted.Thatmakesitallthemorevitalinfuturetoinvestigatefundamentalupheavalsandtoassesstheconsequencesforvaluecreationatanearlystage.
Exploringpossibleopportunitiesandriskspromisesasubstantialincreaseinawarenessandopensupoptionsforaction.Changescanberapid,violentandradical.Thosewhomakeallowancesfordisrup-tionsarebetterpreparedfortheincreasinglyvolatileconditionsunderwhichtheGermaneconomycanandmustoperateupto2030.
Thedemandsmadeontheinvestigationareconsiderable,thosemadeontherangeofinstrumentsnolessso.Ajourneythroughtheproject(seefig.2)seekstomakethisclear.Wheredowestandtoday?Thestartingpointisdescribedwiththehelpofcurrenttrendsinvaluecreation(chapter3).Theseinclude,forexample,thereductionofin-houseproductiondepth,ageneralintensificationofknowledgeandchangedcustomerrequirements.Subsequently,fiveintersectoralspheresofactivityareconsideredmoreclosely:mobility,climateandenergy,healthandnutrition,communicationsandsecurity.The
Analysis of the impact on value creation
New alignment of practice of promotionGuidelinesforpolitics
New focuses of investment Guidelinesforindustry
New paradigms Superordinatepatternsinvaluecreation
14
selectioncorrespondstothe“High-TechStrategy2020”oftheGermangovernment3.Therearealsosuper-ordinateissuesaffectingallareas,suchasalackoftechnologyacceptance.
Thisisfollowedbythedecisivestep.Possibleobstaclestovaluecreation,knownasdisruptions,areidentified.Theyformthespecialmethodologicalapproachofthestudy(chapter4).Thesedisruptionsarebreaksintrendsandcannotsimplybeextrapolatedfromexistingtrends.Theiremergencecreatestosomeextentcompletelynewframeworkconditionswhichthepresentstudydescribesinentryscenarios.Shouldthedisruptionsactuallytakeplace,amajorimpactonthestructureofvaluecreationinGermanymustbereckonedwith.Externalshockscanalsohaveanimpactaswellasthearrivalattippingpoints:continuousdevelopmentsintheinterplayofvariousfactorsleadtoapointwherethesituationtopplesover.Fromthenonthereisseriousinstability.Inthebusinesscommunityweoftenexperiencesuchbreaksintrendsintheformofnon-lineardevelop-ments.OneneedonlythinkoftheburstingofthedotcombubbleinMarch2000.
Thedisruptionsarearrangedaccordingtothefiveareasofactivityaddressedaswellasthetopicsaffectionallsectors.Of325possibledisruptionsthatwereoriginallyidentified,28finallyremainedwhichwerethensubjectedtoathoroughanalysis(chapter4;here18ofthe28disruptionsinvestigatedaresetout).Thedecisiveselectioncriteriaforthemembersoftheworkinggroupon“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”weretheforceandbreathoftheimpactexpected.
Itisthegoaloftheselectionprocesstoidentifycandidatesformajorchangesinthestructuresofvaluecreation.Asaruletheyareissueswhicharealreadybeingdiscussed,butwhoserelevancehasnotyetbeenfeltinthemarkets.
3 FederalMinistryofEducationandResearch(Ed.):Ideas.Innovation.Prosperity.High-Tech-Strategy2020forGermany.Bonn,Berlin2010http://www.hightech-strategie.de/en/index.php
|152.Procedure
14
IdentIFIcatIonCriteria:– forceofimpact–degreeofnovelty
Procedure:–surveysand
workshops–branchanalyses–analysisofrecipro-
caleffects
Z_punkt
SelectIon 1Criteria:– forceofimpact–breadthofimpact– foresightknowledge–manageability
Z_punkt
SelectIon 2– forceofimpact–breadthofimpact– foresightknowledge–manageability
BDIandZ_punkt
deScrIPtIonComponentsofdescription:–cause/trigger–character/descrip-
tion–change–displacement
degree–noveleffects–needforaction
BDIandZ_punkt
28 Disruptions
Figure 3Disruption analysis
In general: approx. 125 disruptions
Areas of activity: approx. 200 disruptions
16
Subsequentlytheinitialfactorsaredescribedfortheentryscenarioofthedisruptions.Theemphasisisnotonpredictingdisruptionsbutontheearlyassessmentofpossibleconsequencesonvaluecreation.Heretheopportunitiesandrisksbecomeclear.Theoutlinesofnewpatternsofvaluecreationemergeandthescopeforactionforpolitics,industryandsocietybecomesvisible.ParticipantsintheBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”haveestimat-edtheopportunities,risksandeffectsonthegrossvaluecreationintheeconomyandonemployment.Naturallyfutureprognosesaresubjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty–allthemoresoagainstthebackgroundofthedynamicandcomplexchangesshapingfuturevaluecreation.
Theeffectsofadisruptionofvaluecreationmustnotbeconsideredinisolation.Whatisdecisiveisthedynamismwhicharisesfromtheinterplayofvarioustrends.Thisreleasesunimaginedforces,resultinginachangeofparadigm(chapter5):The“rulesofthegame”change.Valuechainsaresubjectedtoaredesign,newvalueclusterscomeintobeing.Boththechangeinthe“rulesofthegame”andthenewcompositionofthevaluechainsrequirefar-sightednessinadjustment–thecentralmessageofthestudy.Thisaffects,forexample,theinter-connectionswithintraditionalbranchesandalsothoseinnewbranches.Communicationandinteractionarethelocomotivesdrivingthrustsofinnovationandpreviouslyunknownbusinessmodels.
Paradigmshiftshaveamajorinfluenceontheinternationalcompeti-tivenessoftheGermaneconomy.Itslocationfactorsaretherebycalledintoquestionandmustbeadapted.SafeguardingvaluecreationinGermanyinthelongtermrequiresintelligentandefficientcooperationbetweentheparticipantsinsociety,politicsandtheeconomy.Ifneedbe,anewmodeofcooperationwillhavetobefound.Thisistheaimoftherecommendationsforavaluecreationorientedinnovationpolicyandavaluecreationorientedcultureofinnovation(chapter6).Theprimegoalistomaintainthecompetitive-nessoftheGermaneconomy.
|172.Procedure
16
International competitiveness
Advance performance
LocationGermany
Total performance
Disruptions
Figure 4:Disruptions and their impact on value creation in Germany
Value creation in Germany
183. trends and driving forces of value creation
Atrendisadevelopmentlastingseveralyearsandempiricallydocumented.Trendsusuallyrunasteadycourse,cyclicalchangesandfluctuationsdonotaffectthem,nordochangesofcourseorsharprises.Asaruletrendsfollowacleardirection,theircourseisrobust.
Trendsdescribeacontinuationofeventsaccordingtotheprinciple“businessasusual”.Thatiswhytheycanbeseenasformingthenecessarybackdropneededfordeviations,disturbancesanddisrup-tionstobecomevisible.Thepresentcondensedversionofthestudytakesasexamplessixoforiginally15centraltrendsintheareaofvaluecreation,describingthemfromaninter-sectoralandglobalperspective.
Theselectionofthe15trendsisbasedonasurveyamongcompaniesandassociationsintheBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”andondetailedresearchbyZ_punkttheForesightCompany.
Figure 5: Current trends
|193.Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation
18
trendS and drIverS oF value creatIon
1 Growing importance of inter-sectoral, international value creation partnerships
2 Continuingglobalisation
3 Reduction of production depth – reduction of value creation depth
4 Craving share of services in value creation
5 Knowledgeintensificationofvaluecreation
6 Change in customer requirements
7 Individualisation and personalisation of supply
8 Automationofprocessstages
9 Digital integration of processes
10 Newintelligentlogisticsconcepts
11 Increaseduseofmaterialswithnewproperties
12 Changeinrawmaterialssituation
13 Increasingimportanceofwastemanagementandrecyclingtechnologies
14 Increasingimportanceofsustainability
15 Diversitymanagement
20
Increasing importance of inter-sectoral, international value creation partnerships.Futuretechnologiesarebiotopesfornewcooperationbetweenenterprisesfromdifferentbranchesofindustry.Inthefieldofelectro-mobilitythisinvolvesnotmerelytheclassicautomobilemanufacturersbutalsoenergyutilitiesandparticipantsfromtheITsector.Strategicalliancessuchastheseareincreasinglydecidingoversuccessorfailure,acrossnationalborders.Onthehorizontallevel,newareasofknowledgeandadditionalgroupsofcustomersarebecomingacces-siblefortheindividualenterprises.Alongthevaluechain,thisprovidesenterpriseswiththeopportunitytointegratefurtherservicesbutalsoraisesthedangeroflosingcorecompetencesandthusvaluecreation.Fromproducttoservicecanalsomeanserviceinsteadofproduct.Itisnotnecessarytoownanautomobileinordertodriveacar–mobilityasaservicethusillustratesanewbusinessopportunity.
Partialcooperationwithcompetitors(coopetition)onlymakessensewhennodirectcompetitionistobefearedandwhenitofferssubstan-tialcost-cuttingpotential.Internationalcompetitorswhichsupplyothermarketsarepracticallyaninvitationtobecoopetitionpartners.Jointdevelopmentofcomponentsorproductsisalreadycommonintheautomobileindustry.
Openinnovationgoesonestepfurtherbyactivelyincludingcustom-ers,strategicpartnersand–inthepre-competitivestage–evencompetitorsinproductdevelopment.Thedrivingforcesofthesedevelopmentsareglobalisation,thepotentialofjointbusinessoppor-tunitiesandshorterproductlifecycles.Theyalsopromptenterprisestocommunicatetheirinnovationprocessesopenlyandtooptimisethem.
|213.Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation
20
Reduction of depth of value creationThesustainedsuccessofenterprisesrestsonbeingstrategicallypositioned.Apartfromfinancialandpersonnelresources,competitive-nesscruciallydependsonhowenterprisesspecialiseinaparticularareaofthevaluecreationchainandthusdevelopacorecompetence.Onedirectconsequenceisareductionindepthofvaluecreation.Intheautomobileindustry(OEMs)itisaround20percent.
Thedrivingforcesbehindthisdevelopmentareagrowingdynamismofinnovationandtherisingpressureofcosts.Inmanycasesout-sourcinghasbeenandstillremainsthesolution.Apreconditionisthatservicesandproductionprocessescanbestandardised.
Intheglobaleconomysomeregionshaveemergedwithspecialcompetencesandtheirownprofile.Theyhavebecomeideallocationsinwhichtooutsourcecertainpartsofvaluecreation.Forexample,IndiaactsasaglobalservicescentreforIT-basedservices.Chinahasgainedareputationastheworkbenchoftheworld.However,infutureitmaybethatprocessesonceoutsourcedareshiftedbackagaintoagrowingextent.Thereasonsarerisingwagesandeconomicpolicyreformsintherelevantregions.
22
Rising proportion of services in value creationInmanufacturingindustryaparadigmshiftistakingplace:enterprisesaretransformingthemselvesfrommereproducersofproductsintosuppliersofintegratedsolutions.Thedividinglinebetweengoodsandservicesisdissolving.Thistrendisbecomingincreasinglyclearinmechanicalengineering.Companiesarenotmerelysupplyingproductsbutalsoancillaryservicessuchasmaintenance.Ortheymayactfromtheoutsetasoperatorswiththeservicethenreplacingthepurchaseoftheproduct.Thesameappliesequallytomedicaltechnology,opticsandtheelectricalindustry.
Change in customer requirementsThepackagingofproductandservicenotonlykeepsthecompetitionatadistance,aboveallithelpsthecustomer.Withoutdoubt,intimesofsaturatedmarkets,customerretentiontakesonmoreimportance.Successonlycomeswhentheenterprisesucceedsinestablishingalastingemotionalbondwiththeconsumer.
Service-orientationrequiresspecialknow-how.Conventionalmarketresearchisfrequentlynotsufficient.Openinguptotheserviceideathereforedemandsoftheclassicindustrialenterprisethatitchangesitsowncorporateculture.Knowledgeofcustomerrequirementsmustalsobemeaningfullyintegratedintotheprocessesandbecompre-hensivelyexploited.
Productsforagrowingcustomersegment50+areincreasinglyfollowingadesignthatdoesnotmaketheiruserslook“old”butrathergivesthemthefeelingof“eternalyouth”anddiscreetlymaskstheirpersonalweaknesses.Examplesarethecurrentboomonlinercruises,fitnessstudiosfortheelderlyorcarsthataresimplertogetintoandofferthedriverassistance.The“newseniorcitizens”aremoremobileandhealthierthanpreviousgenerationsoftheelderlyandhavemoremoneytospend.Thisdevelopmentisadirectresultofdemographicchangeandthespreadofprosperityinsociety.Smart,long-lastingandtimelessdesignhasafuture.
|233.Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation
22
Convenienceismuchmorethanfastfood.Abroadlybasedtrendispointingtowardsanintelligentlighteningoftheloadofdailylife.Pressureoftime,mobilityandanenormousfloodofinformationwhichhastobegraspedarethedrivingforcesofthisdevelopment.
Manycustomersproceedontheprinciple:let’simprovetheworldwhileshopping.Andthatappliesnotonlytofood.Inthecaseofconsumergoods,travellinganddwellings,ecologicalandsocialdimensionsarebecomingthecentreofattention.However,customersarenotpreparedtogowithouttheiraccustomedamenitiesorhighquality.Thereisagrowingmarketforproductswithhigherecologicalandsocialstandards.YetintimesofgrowingtransparencythroughNGOsandthesocialweb,an“ecologicalhalo”(greenwashing)isbecomingagenuineriskforenterprises.
24
Individualising and personalising supplyTheneedforindividualisinginallareasoflifeisunbroken–andwillremainso.Thepotentialofmassproductionformaturemarketsisincreasinglyexhausted.Inordertomeettherefinedneedsoftheircustomers,enterprisesarefacedwiththelastingtaskofgreaterdifferentiationoftheproductandservicesportfolios.Onepossiblesolutionismasscustomisation,producingforindividualcustomers.Buyingtherightbicycle,ifitisnottobeoneoffthepeg,isnosimplematteranylonger.
Anotherrouteisofferedbymodularproduction,whichhaslongbecomecommonintheITsector.Forenterprisesnewchannelsofcommunicationhavedecisiveadvantages,atthedigitalleveltheseareusertoolkitsandproductconfigurations.Customerrequirementsarebecomingmoredemandingandaremoretransparentthaneverbefore,yetthecostofproductdevelopmentmuststillbecutevenfurther.
Internetande-commerceplatformscreateuser-friendlydistributionmodels.Wheresalesanddistributionareconcerned,limitationsimposedbyshelfareaandshowroomsarethingsofthepast.Thedigitalpathmeansabroadspectrumofnicheproductsreachesacriticalmass.Inthiswayavarietyofmicro-marketshascomeintobeingalongsidethemassmarket.
.
|253.Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation
24
Digital process integrationStandardisationanddigitalisationgohandinhand.Thedigitalpenetrationofenterprisesiscontinuingapace,whetherinmarketing,sales,service,procurement,productionorlogistics.Afterthee-com-mercewave,increasedattentionisnowbeingturnedtooptimisinginternalprocessesandthosebetweenenterprises.Theadvantagesareobvious:efficiency,flexibilityandageneralacceleration.Thetemplateistherealtimeenterpriseinwhichallrelevantinformationisavailableinadigitalmodel.Decisionsandoptionsforactionaremodelledwithcomputerassistance–andcanbeseenintheplanningoffactoryandconstructionprogress.
Withcloudcomputingthestartingbellhasnowsoundedforanotherroundintheprogressofinformationtechnologyinindustry.Theprocessfollowsthelogicofoutsourcing.Withscaleeffectsandflexibleservicemodels–thesoftwarenolongerontheharddiscbutasaservice–majoreconomiesarepossibleinspiteofincreasingtheextentofservice.Atthesametime,thereisincreaseddependence.Dataprotectionandsecurityoftheoutsourceddatahavetobeguaranteed.Expertshaveaclearvisionofthevirtualenterpriseofthefuture.Itconsistsofanetworkoffirmsandfree-lancepersonnel,itworksproject-related,anditscustomersareintegratedasco-produc-ers.However,suchextremelyflexiblestructureswithtemporarycorporategoalsandflathierarchieshaveproblemsoftheirown.Theystartwiththetrainingofpersonnel,continuewithlabourlaw,andendinan(intended)blurringbetweenfree-lanceandsalariedstaff,betweenworkandleisuretime.
264. disruptions – opportunities and risks for value creation
Whereastrendsleadtomoreorlessclearlyforeseeablechangesinvaluecreation,theimpactofthelistofdisruptionsonvaluecreationintheyear2030iscomplexandhardlycalculable.Yetdespitealluncertainties,opportunitiesandriskshavetobesurveyedandassessed.Newalliances,changedcompetitivestructures,andinnovativebusinessmodelsareemerging.Bottlenecksaffectingresourcesarenotonlyconceivablebutprobable;inthedigitalage,knowledgeandtechnologyaredecidedlyfluid.Itisaconstantchallengetokeepthemavailableanddevelopthem.Andwhatmustnotbeforgottenisthesocialacceptancewhichisnecessaryifnewsolutionsandservicesaretoendureatall.
Ifdisruptionsbecomevirulent,theyposeasignificanthazardforvaluecreationandthusforemployment.However,forenterpriseswhichrecognisethechangeingoodtime,opportunitiesopenup.Inordertograspthem,notonlytheenterprisesandtheirdecision-makersbutalsolargepartsofthepopulationmustbereadyfornewtasks.Obstaclesalongthispatharefrequentlyalackofeducationandculturalbarriers.Whetherthesecanbeovercomedependsonthereadinessofsocietyanditsinstitutions,namelykindergarten,schools,universitiesandstateinstitutions.Butitisalsouptoeachindividual.Behindvaluecreationstandhumanbeingswiththeirexperiencesandtheirbiographies,withchildrenandfamilies.Forthemtheremustbeabridgefromtheoldworldofemploymenttothenew.Thenewworldmustofferjobsforasmanypeopleaspossible,whilegrantingthemaccesstothenecessaryqualificationsandremainingopenforchanges.
Subsequentlythedisruptions(18outof28investigated)arefirstoutlinedinanentryscenarioandonthisbasistherefollowsananalysisoftheimpactonvaluecreation.
Figure 6: List of disruptions
|274.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
26
area oF actIvIty – MobIlIty1 Mobility changes from product to service business2 New competitors change the mobility market3 Automationoftrafficflows4 Massivereductionintrafficvolume5 Breakthroughofnewlogisticssystems6 Integration of mobility and energy networks7 Electro-mobility leads to new value creation structures
area oF actIvIty – clIMate and energy1 Far-reaching decentralisation of energy supply2 Worldwidefasterandmoreconsistentswitchtorenewableenergies3 Majordependenceonenergyimports4 Struggle for new sources of raw materials and energy5 TechnologiesforexploitingCO2findwideapplication
area oF actIvIty – health and nutrItIon1 Personalised medicine experiences a breakthrough2 Massivecurtailingofpublichealthcare3 Systemssupplierschangecompetitioninhealthsector4 New convergence markets arise in nutrition sector5 Sustainablenutritionindustrywinsthrough6 Shortage of resources in agricultural sector.
area oF actIvIty – coMMunIcatIon1 Individualisedmediausebecomesstandard2 “Internet of Things” opens up completely new business potential3 Community-based customer behaviour detonates traditional business models4 Knowledge-based systems at the centre of future value creation
area oF actIvIty – SecurIty1 Increased system complexity – higher potential hazard – global extent of damage
Inter-Sectoral FraMework condItIonS1 Lack of acceptance for technology in Europe2 Declining quality and investment holdup through lack of skilled labour3 Reciprocal effects in global finance and currency system and the arrival of new players4 Development of international trade relations with question mark5 Complete internalisation of external costs
28
Area of activity – mobilityWefacegreatupheavalsinglobalmobility.Thedrivingforcesaremanifold:growingregulationintheclimateandenvironmentarea,highpricevolatilityintherawmaterialsectorandintensificationofcompetitionstemmingfromproducersinemergingcountries.Forexample,inGermanytheautomobileindustryhasfordecadesoccupiedakeypositioninthenation’sindustry.Nowcompetitorsfromoutsidethesectorareencroachingontothisterritory.Newalliancesandstrategicpartnershipswithoperatorspreviouslyalientothesectorwillbedecisiveforsafeguardingthemarketposition.
NewpropulsionsystemsandcontinuingITintegrationincars,buses,trainsandaircraft,togetherwiththeattendantinfrastructureleadtovaluecreationstructuresundergoinglastingchange.Thisincludes,forexample,electro-mobilityandtheintermodallinkingofvarioustransportcarriers.
Connectivityinthemobilitysectorwillcontinuetoadvance.Seamlessmobilityisthedemandtoguaranteeasafe,efficientandsustainabletransportofpeopleandgoods.ThisgivesrisetoreciprocaleffectswiththeenergysectorandtheITbranch.Disruptionsinthebusinesssectoraretheresult.Themainemphasisliesonthebenefitsfortheeconomyasawhole,butalsoforeachindividual,withacutintrafficcongestion,increasedsafetyandbetterprotectionoftheenvironment.
|294.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
28
PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 Mobilitychangesfromproduct -/(+) -/(+) toservicesbusiness
2 Newcompetitorschangethe -/(+) -/(+) mobilitymarket
3 Automationoftrafficflows + +
4 Massivedropinvolumeoftraffic - -
5 Breakthroughofnewlogisticssystems + +
6 Integrationofmobilityand + + energynetworks
7 Electro-mobilityleadstonewvalue - - creationstructures
Figure 7:Disruptions in the mobility area of activity
Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101
30
Entry scenarioIn2030mobilitywillbemarkedbyachangeofvaluesinsociety.Thekeywordsare:climateprotectionandsustainability,urbanqualityoflife,timeefficiencyandtherediscoveryoftheregion–notleastasaresultofhighertransportcosts.Trafficbottlenecksandcongestionwillincreasethroughlackofmaintenanceandinadequateexpansionofinfrastructure.Highenergypricesforfossilenergysourceswillleadtomoretransportoffers.
Ifthedevelopmentoftoday’ssmartphonesisprojectedintothefuture,anomnipresentandhighlynetworkedcomputerisationofthewholeofeverydaylifeisconceivable.Successfulconceptsinthemarketmakepossibleaseamless,uncomplicatedandeconomicaldoor-to-doormobility,byplane,train,carorbicycle.Incitiescarswillbespeedilyfoundandusedwhenneeded.
Mobility is changing from product to services business
|314.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
30
Theopportunitiesforsuppliersconsistnotonlyofprovidingfleetsofcarsandinfrastructurebutalsoofinformationserviceswhichmaketotaljourneyplanningpossiblewithswitchingbetweendifferentmodesoftransport–thankstoreal-timetrafficinformation,trafficcontrolsystems,mobilitymaps,accesstechnology,andticketing,allstemmingfromonesource.Publictransportdevelopsintoaplatformsupplier,traditionalcarmanufacturersbecomeprovidersofmobilityservices.Thepreconditionsare:Focusonthecustomer,readinessforcooperationandforfinancingnewinfrastructures.
Thisrequiresafundamentalculturalchangefrommanufacturersandoperators;amoveawayfromtheengineering-basedproducttowardsanintegratedsolutionandsystemicservicesinnovation.Thisbringsustotherisks.Itisafactthattheprincipleof“usingnotowning”canmeandemandforvehicleswillfall.Jobscanbelostatpreciselythetraditionalcomponentsuppliers.Whilenewjobsarecreatedfornewcomponents,suchasbatteriesorelectricmotors,ontheotherhandcompetencesaregraduallylostforcombustionenginesandgearbox-es.Theelectricmotorisrevolutionisingthewholepowertrainandbrakesandsteeringaswell.Thisisasystemicnewapproach.Thequestionisonly,whowillbenefitfromitandwhere.Onbalance,anegativeeffectonvaluecreationcanbepredicted.Lossesindevelop-mentandproductioncannotbeoffsetbyanewrangeofservicesoffered.
Effects
32
Entry scenarioIntheemergingnationsnewcompetitorsaregaininggroundwithsignificantmarketsharesandcustomersegments.IntheprivatecarareaitisparticularlyAsianmanufacturerswithmuchlowerdevelop-ment,productionanddistributioncostswhoaredominatingthelow-costsegmentwithitshugepotentialforgrowth.Low-costproduc-tionishardlypossibleinGermany.Shoulditbeforcedthroughbyglobalcompetition,thiswouldbeadisruptionimpactingonthelabourmarketandthewholeofsociety.Germanmanufacturersshouldaimtocounteractanysuchtrendwithhigherquality.Higherqualitymeanshigherprices.Thepreconditionmustbeanintensificationofresearchanddevelopment,somethingwhichmustalsobeunderstoodbythepoliticians.
New competitors change the mobility market
|334.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Whenelectro-mobilityandmobilityservicesincreaseingeneral,newplayerspreviouslyalientothesectoralsoclaimashareofthebusi-ness:forthemitisanopportunity,fortraditionalautomobilemanufac-turersandtheirsuppliersitismoreofarisk.
Intheautomobilesectortraditionalenterprisescanalsobenefitwhentheycooperatewiththenewactors,oriftheyconsciouslysetthem-selvesapartfromthelow-costsupplierswithlittleproductvariety.Inthefieldofelectro-mobilityadditionalopportunitiesarisethroughenterprisesdevelopingandproducingtheirowne-components,throughinnovativeplatformstrategies,andthemanufactureofnewcompositematerials.Risksforvaluecreationariseforenterpriseswhosesalespotentialiscutbythemarketentryofnewcompetitors.Inthelongtermthereisadangerthatcustomerswilladoptalow-cost,high-qualitymentality.Thatwouldimpairreadinesstopayappropriatepricesforhighclassproducts.
TrainandaircraftconstructionisalsofacedwithcompetitionfromtheFarEast.Capacitiesandtechnicalqualityhavereachedalevelwhichenablesthenewcontractorstosupplyinternationalmarkets:localtolocalisfollowedbylocaltoglobal.Aviationcanbepredictedtobeagrowingmarket,whichreducestherisktosales,unlesscompetitionisdistortedbyextremeprotectionistmeasures.Competitionisgrowingforsuppliersthroughnewaircraftconceptsinthemediumhaularea.Atthesametime,forGermany’ssupplierstoaircraftconstructionthereispotentialsincetheymakeacontributiontothenewcompeti-torsbeingabletoofferproductsatworldmarketlevel.Germanmanufacturersalreadyhavealeadinsubstitutesforscarcerawmaterialsandinrecycling.Heretheycancontinuetoraisetheirprofile.
Inthepremiumautomotivesegmentthereisafundamentaldangerthatjobswillbelost.Newdemandinthelabourmarketcomesfromthesalesanddistributionstructuresofforeignmanufacturersandinmobilityservices.Inviewofthegrowingmarket,anincreaseinjobsisalsotobeexpectedinaircraftconstruction.However,thetotalsumoftheimpactonthelabourmarketisneutralatbest.
Effects
34
Entry scenarioAkeytechnologyofelectro-mobilityisthebattery.Amajorincreaseinenergydensity–ashiftawayfromleadandtowardsthelithium-ionaccumulator–waswhatmadetheboominnewelectricvehiclespossibleinthefirstplace.Intheyear2030electro-mobilitywillhavefinallymadethebreakthrough.Thismeansnewplayersforcetheirwayintothemarket,thereisashiftintraditionalpowerrelationships,classiccorebusinessdisintegrates.Newplayersinthegame,forexample,arealsomunicipalitiesandtheirutilities,andenterpriseswhichhavespecialisedinmanagingvehiclefleets.Electricvehiclesareespeciallywell-suitedforshortjourneys:theyaretheclassiclast-milevehicle.Allinall,electro-mobilitywillleadtocomplexvaluecreatenetworkswithtraditionalautomobilemanufacturersandtheirsuppliers,energysupplyenterprises,softwareproducers,theopera-torsofaccountsettlementsystemsandmobilityserviceprovidersandusercommunities.Therelativemarketpoweroftheplayerswillcruciallydependontheirskillinforgingalliances.
Electro-mobility leads to new structures of value creation
|354.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
34
Enterpriseswhichenterthemarketwithnewsuppliesatanearlystagehaveanearly-moveradvantage.Itcanbepredictedthatthevaluecreationproportionofbatteries(inplug-inhybridsandpurelyelectricvehicles)includingtheservicesroundtheenergystoragesystemwillbeconsiderable,eveniftheaccumulatorsbecomelowerinprice.Incontrast,thepreviouskeytechnology,thepowertrain,willrelativelydeclineinimportance.Batterytechnologyisresource-inten-sive.Notonlylithiumbutalsocobalt,nickelandcopperareusedalongwithhightechrawmaterialssuchasneodymiumforthecontrolelectronics.ForalltheseresourcesitmustbestatedthatGermanydoesnothavethem,ornotenoughofthem,whichwithoutanydoubtputssecurityofsupplyinjeopardytoadegreewhichmustbetakenseriously!
Electro-mobilitycontributestothelong-termsafeguardingofjobsintheGermanautomobileindustry.Higherproductivityinthemanufac-tureoftheelectricmotorpossiblyconstitutesanegativeimpulseforemployment.Forthedevelopmentofgrossvaluecreationitwillbecrucialwhetherthemajorpartsofthecorecomponentofelectro-mobility,thebattery,canbeproducedinGermany.Theassumptionsofarmustbethatonlybatteriesforthetopsegmentwillbeproducedinthiscountry.
Effects
36
Entry scenarioTheexpansionofelectro-mobilityrequiresnewformsofenergyprovision.Thedrawbacksofbatteriesareforeseeableyetremain:highweightandvolume.Thisfoilseffortstoreducevehicleweightbylightweightconstruction.Yetenergy-efficientandthuscarbondioxidereducedmobilityisbecomingmoreandmorenecessary.Asolutioncouldemergeby2030atthelatestiftheelectriccurrentrequiredisgeneratedandsuppliedalongthemobilitynetworks–perhapsevenregainedandstored.Intelligentsolutionstendtobedecentralisedsolutions.Theyembedthegenerationofrenewableenergyindwell-ings,offices,storehouses,citydistrictsorfactoriesandintegratethefunctionissmartenergynetworks.
Integration of mobility and energy networks
|374.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
36
Inthiscasetransportservicesfromdoortodoorarecalculatedinkilowatthoursperkilometre.Thecostsvaryaccordingtotheplaceandtimeofdayandalsoaccordingtotheweightandpaceofthegoodstobecarried.Thechangeintheenergysystem,withlessdiesel/petrolandmore(transport)current,makesnewregulationsandcontrolsystemsprobable.Infuturetherearelikelytobedifferentiatedtariffs,whichchargecostsaccordingtotimeorformofuse,suchasforhaulageorforprivatehouseholds.Alltheseharbouropportunities.
Thedevelopmentofelectro-mobilityintegratedintotheenergynetworkofthefuturedemandsmajorinvestment,bothintechnologyandininfrastructure.Inthelongtermthiscancertainlyproduceimprovementsinthegeneraltransportsituation,competitiveadvan-tagesandalsosavingsintheenergysector.TheeffectsofcreatingtheinfrastructureontheGermanlabourmarketarepositive.Itisobviousthattheinvestmentalsocarriesrisks.Traditionaltransportenterpriseswhichdonotkeeppacewiththisdevelopmentlosemarketshares.
Onbalance,theintegrationoftransportandenergynetworksleadstoapositivedevelopment,withregardtobothemploymentandvaluecreation.
Effects
38
Area of activity – climate and energyClimatechange,anemergingshortageofstrategicresourcesandtheirconsequentincreaseinpriceenforcearethinkingintheenergyandrawmaterialssector.Globalpopulationgrowthiscontinuing.Theglobalpopulationwillrisefromthecurrentseventoeightbillionbytheyear2030.Theeconomiccatchingupprocessesintheemerginganddevelopingcountriesmustbeaddedtothesefactors.Asaconse-quence,demandforresourcesincreases.
Theremodellingofenergysystemsandtheraisingofresourceefficiencyareriskyprojectswhichalsoinvolvesubstantialcosts.Successdependsonthecloseinterlockingofdifferentfieldsofcompetenceandindustries.Reliableplottingofthecoursebythepoliticiansisaprecondition.Inanycase,theremodellingofenergysystemsdependstoadecisiveextentonsocialacceptance.Thatisdemonstratedbythecurrentdebate.Inparticular,thebalancingoftheinterestsofthoseaffectedlocallyandofthosebenefitingbeyondregionshasnotyetmatured.Newformsofcompensationcouldmaketheircontribution.Acentralissueisdecarbonisation,theavoidanceofcarbondioxideemissions,whetherinenergygeneration,inmobility,andinindustrialprocessesingeneral.Onealternativewouldbethematerialutilisationoftheclimategas.
|394.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsofvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101.
PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 Extensivedecentralisation +/(-) +/- ofenergysupply
2 Globallyafasterandmoreconsistent + +/(-) switchtorenewableenergies
3 Extensivedependenceonenergy - - imports
4 Contestfornewsourcesofraw - - materialsandenergy
5 TechnologiesforCO2exploitationfind + + broadapplication
Figure 8:Disruptions in the climate and energy area of activity
40
Entry scenarioCarriedalongbypoliticaldiscussionsandmoodswhichincreasinglyturnagainstglobalisation,againstinfrastructureprojectsandbigindustry,thependulumswingsinpolicy-makingforenergy.Itswingsawayfromcentrallyorganisedstructureswithgreatpowerandtowardsdecentralisedpowergenerationinsmall-scalenetworks,althoughtheincreaseduseoflocation-boundwindandsolarpowerdemandsmajorinnovativeintegratedgrids.
Thepreconditionforeveryconceptisforthecoursetobeclearlymappedoutatthepoliticallevel,accompaniedbylastingacceptancebythegeneralpublic.Inthecaseofasustainedpreferencefordecentralisedenergysupplytherewouldbeconsistentinstallationofcombinedheatandpowerunitsinbuildings.Progressinphoto-volta-ics,inwindpower,biogasandelectro-chemistrycouldleadtoadownrightboominrenewableenergies.Ifthedecisivebuildingblocksfornewconceptsinenergysupplydonotfindblanketacceptance,thiscouldalsoleadtodisruptions.
Extensive decentralisation of energy supply
|414.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
40
Whentheimpactonvaluecreationisconsidered,apictureemergeswithlightandshadows.DecentralisedenergygenerationbenefitsSMEs,especiallyintheinstallationandmaintenanceoftheplantandinheatinsulation.Large-scaleproductionmeanspricesarecut.Inaggressivecompetition,Asianproducersofphoto-voltaicsandwindpowerplantgainground.Atthesametime,thedependenceontheweatherofdecentralisedenergygenerationpushesupenergypricesandincreaseslandconsumption.Powergenerationcostsrise,consequentlyGermanybecomesanelectricityimporter,valuecreationfalls.
Suchascenarioisstronglypromotedbypoliticalframeworkcondi-tions.Thisappliestoenterprisesbutalsotoinvestorsandprivatehouseholds.YettheframeworkoughttoextendbeyondGermanyandcreatecomparableconditionsthroughouttheEU.Theinstrumentsofenergyandclimatepolicyshouldbecoordinatedintheprocessinordertopreservethecompetitivenessofmarketparticipants.IfGermanyleadsthewaydownthispathitcancontinuetoextenditsinternationalleadindecentralisedenergysupply,theintegrationofdifferentenergysourcesandofstoragetechnology.
Throughthedevelopmentandproductionofsmall-scaleinfrastruc-ture,valuecreationincreasesontheonehand,yetontheotheramajorshiftinbranchstructureistobeexpected.Asaresultofhigherelectricityprices,anexodusofenergy-intensivebranchesofindustryispossible.DrawingafinalbalanceoftheeffectsofthechangeofstrategyonemploymentandvaluecreationinGermanyisthereforepossibleonlytoalimitedextent.4
4 Somegoodindicationsareofferedbythestudy“Klima-undStrukturwandel–ChancenundRisikenderdeutschenIndustrie”,IW-AnalysenNo.69,Cologne2011
Effects
42
Entry scenarioGermanyisacountrywithfewrawmaterials.Theglobaltransformationprocessisnowredrawingthegeopoliticalmapforenergysupply.Forexample,largepartsofnaturalgasdepositsaresituatedaroundtheCaspianSea.IntheregionChinawillofferstiffercompetitionwithRussia.InAfrica,ChineseandEuropeaninterestscontinuetoclashinexploitingtherichsourcesofrawmaterialsandenergy.Strategicrawmaterialsareanimportantissuehere.ThealtercationsaboutChineseexportrestrictionsforrareearthswhichareneededforcontrollingelectronicdevicesareonlyaforetaste.Traderestrictionsarespreading.
The contest for sources of raw materials and energy
|434.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Germanyalsohasitsunconventionalsourcesofrawmaterials:amongthemarelandfillminingandurbanmining.Whenpricerelationschange,thesesourcesbecomethefocusofhighlyspecialisedsupplierswithnewtechnologiesforaccess,logisticsandexploitation.Thiscoversmineralrawmaterialsaswellasmetals.Thecradle-to-cradleprinciplecouldbeintheascendantaswellasthetrendtoclosed-loopcyclesformaterialsandgoods.Ifrawmaterialsaretobere-introducedintoeconomiccycles,however,aredesignofmanyproductsisessential.Re-useandrecyclingmustalreadybetakenintoconsiderationatthedesignstage.NationalandEuropeanregulationsarenecessaryforthis.Theyshouldbejustifiedwithrespecttopricerelations.
Despitealltheopportunities,thefactremainsthatGermany,asanindustrialnationwithfewrawmaterials,isatseriousriskfromshortagesofsupplyforimportantresources.GrowingdemandforrawmaterialsfromAfricannationsandanascentrivalrybetweenChinaandEuropeleadtofurtherpriceincreasesforrawmaterials.
ThebottomlineisthataperceptiblelossofvaluecreationinGermanyislooming.Risingimportpricesareathreattothedepthofvaluecreationandtothecompetitivenessoftherelevantbranchesofindustry.
Effects
44
Area of activity – health and nutritionThehealthsectorisintheprocessofbecomingoneofthemostimportantfuturemarketsofall.Anumberofstrongdrivingforcesareleadingtorisingdemandforhealthproductsandservices,themostimportantbeingscientificandtechnologicalprogressinmedicaltechnology,pharmacy,andbio-technology.Oneexampleisthedevelopmentofimagingproceduresinradiologyinrecentyears:fromasimpleX-raytocomputer-assistedcross-sectionalimagingwhichdepictsthewholebodyindetailintheshortestoftime.Sowhatwillbepossibleinanothertwodecades?
Individualisedformsoftherapyoccupyakeypositionintheemer-genceofnewvaluecreationpotential.Theintegrativemomentumoffuturevaluecreationcanbeseenparticularlyclearlyinso-calledpersonalisedmedicine:researchwhichburststheboundsofindividu-aldisciplines,andbrancheswhicharenolongeralientoeachotherbutinteractmoreandmore.Newoffersarisewithtailor-madeservices;productsandservicesblendintohybridsystemsoffers.Here,onceagain,itisinformationandcommunicationtechnologywhichenablestheexchangeofknowledgeandcooperationtoapreviouslyunknowndegree.Theelectronichealthcardnowbeingdevelopedisonlyonebuildingblockinthisdevelopment.
Humanbeingshaveaninherentdesireforalonglifeingoodhealth.Alreadytodaynewchallengesareemergingwithpeoplelivingappreci-ablelonger.Medicalpossibilitiesreinforcetheneedforinformationandprevention.Searchenginesmakeiteasierforpeopletotakeontheresponsibilityforlookingaftertheirownhealth.Convergingtrendsarelikelytoleadtotipping-pointdisruptionsinhealthinsurance(limitingtoseriousrisks,novelcombinationswithownpreventivecare)andinhealthcare(morecompetition,theeliminationofsegmentation,forexamplebetweendoctorswiththeirownpracticesandhospitals).
|454.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Explanationsoftheeffectsofdisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101
Figure 9:Disruptions in the health and nutrition area of activity
PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 Personalisedmedicine + + experiencesbreakthrough
2 Massiverestrictionof -/+ -/+ publichealthcare
3 Systemssupplierschangecompetition +/- + inthehealthsector
4 Newconvergingmarkets + +/- ariseinfoodsector
5 Sustainablenutritionmanagement + - winsthrough
6 Shortageofrawmaterialsin + -/+ agriculturalsector
Thegrowingconvergencebetweenbranchesisnotleasttobeseeninthenutritionindustry.Newtechnologiesfindtheirwayintotheconventionalfoodmarket.Theoldboundariesbetweenfoodandpharmaceuticalsaredissolved.Theblendingofhealthandnutritionsectorsleadstofar-reachingchangesinvaluecreationprocesses.Newmarketscomeintobeingwithnewplayers.
46
Entry scenarioItstartswithinnovation.Progressinmoleculardiagnosticsandthelow-costanalysisofbio-markersopenupnewfieldsofactivity.Thisappliesbothtopreventativehealthcareandtherapies.Thetraditionalassessmentofpatientsaccordingtoage,sexandfamilyhistoryissupplementedbyfarmorepreciseandthusfarmoreeffectivefeatures,suchascanbefoundineachindividualatthegeneticlevel.Thisisalreadyhappeningtoday,suchasinthetreatmentofbowelcancerorleukaemia.However,theapplicationofsuchapproachestootherhealthproblemsstillrequiresmorebasicandtranslationalresearch,whichiscurrentlytakingplace.Personalisedmedicineislikelytoachieveitsbreakthroughby2030–startingwithselectedgroupsofpatientsforwhosecomplaintsthegeneticandothercauseswillhavebeensufficientlyresearched.
Personalised medicine achieves a breakthrough
|474.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
46
Theeffectsofpersonalisationarenottobeunderestimated.Thestartingpointisdata.Itcanbepredictedthatvaluecreationwillfirsttakeplaceinthestronggrowthareaofpreventionanddiagnostics,includingwiththehelpofspecialsensorsorimplantedchips.Meas-urementsarefollowedbyevaluationandvisualisationofthedataandtheirtransformationintoinformationthatcanbeapplied.Theconver-genceofmedicineandinformationtechnologyleadstonewbusinessmodels.ManykindsofITsupportservices,suchasdatatransferandmonitoringpatientsintheirownfourwalls,willgiveafurtherboosttopersonalisedmedicine.Thefactthatthehealthdataofmanyindividu-alsarepermanentlyonhandwillalsohaveamajorinfluenceonnutrition,theworldofwork,andevenonlivesathome.Theopportu-nitiesalsoincludeindividualisedwellnessofferslinkedtosportandtravel.
Newfinancingmodelsfordiagnosticprocedures,formsoftherapyandmedicamentsbringopportunitiesforpatientsbutalsoharboursignificantrisks.Blockbusters(medicamentsforlargegroupsofpatients)willtosomeextentbereplacedby“mini-busters”(nicheproducts)–presentingahigherfinancialriskforpharmaceuticalenterprises.Thedevelopmentwillalsoleadtolargequantitiesofsensitivepersonaldatabeingonhand.Manypeoplewillwonderwhethertheirmedicalhistoryisanybusinessofthestate,insurers,oremployers.Fearofthearrivalofthe“glasspatient”willbemorestronglyvoiced–notleastbydoctorswhosemethodsoftreatmentbecomemoretransparentandopentocomparison.
Personalisationofmedicinewillleadtoanopeningofmarketsforprivatecontractorsandanewwaveofprivatisationofthecosts.Multi-classmedicinedependingontheinformationavailable(expost)wouldprovokeconsiderableresistanceinsociety.Newservicesandproductsleadtopositiveemploymenteffectsandvaluecreationrises.However,risinghealthinsurancechargescouldimpairinternationalcompetitivenessiftheycontinuetoimpactonlabourcostsasisthecasewiththeexistingregulationsandarenotbornebytheindividual.Risingcontributionfortherecipientsofstatebenefits,financedbythestate,couldleadtoadisruptivelimitationoftreatmentspaidforbystatutoryhealthinsurers.
Effects
48
Entry scenarioInfuturefoodwillnotmerelytastegoodandbehealthybutatthesametimepromotehealthandevenbeauty.Theboundariesbetweenfoodandmedicineandalsocosmeticswillevaporate.
Pharmaceuticalcompaniessupplyfoodthatisgoodforthehealth.Foodproducerspenetratesalesmarketswithhealthrelevance:healthfoodshops,drugstoresandchemists.Cosmeticsmanufacturersmoveintothefoodandhealthareas.Allthreeoperators,pharmaceuticals,foodandcosmeticsmanufacturers,exerttheirinfluenceonagricul-tureinordertosecuretheirrawmaterialsbaseandtocontrolitintheirowninterests.Biotechnologyandgeneticengineeringgainimportance.Intraditionalagricultureseedsbecomethefactordecidingsuccess.
New converging markets appearing in the food sector
|494.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Themainriskforthisdevelopmentliesinsocialacceptance.Arethesubstanceswhichhaveabiologicaleffectreallysafe?Andwhataboutsideeffectsanddamagetotheenvironment?Inordertobeabletoanswerquestionssuchasthese,considerableinvestmentisneces-saryinresearchanddevelopment,togetherwithmarketingandpublicrelationsworkinordertocounterpublicmisgivings.Newlegalregulationscomeintoforce.Rawmaterialsmarketsconstitutealimitingfactor,andhereitisabovealltheraresubstanceswhichpresupposerichbiodiversity.
Newproductsleadtopositiveemploymenteffects.Newvaluecreationprocessesarepossibleinagriculture.
Effects
50
Entryscenario
ThereareseriousfoodcrisesinAfrica,Asia,andLatinAmerica.Thenumberofthosestarvingrisesdramatically.Thereasonisthescarcityofthemostvitalrawmaterialsforagriculture:water,fertilizer,andeffectivecropprotectionagents,suchaspesticides.Landavailableforcropsislost.Otherareasaredegraded.Theextensivecultivationofenergyplantsandanimalfeedleadstoafurtherdropinplantfoodproduction.Risingoilandgaspriceshaveahugeeffectonthecostoffertilizer.Theshareofconventionallyusedandhighlyindustrialisedagricultureofthetotalareaoflandusedforagriculturecouldfall.
However,beforethesechangedframeworkconditionsleadtounder-nourishment,sickness,anddeathformanyhumanbeings,thedisruptiveemergenceofgeneticallymodifiedorganisms(GMO),someofwhich,forexample,cancopebetterwithashortageofwater,opensupnewopportunities.AridityandextremeweatheraffectareasoutsideGermanyinparticular.TheycouldbenefitfromGMOs.Nevertheless,thefoodmarketinGermanycouldbecomeasupplier’smarketwithdomesticagriculturegainingcompetitiveness.Increasedcompetitionforlandbenefitsenterpriseswhichoffersolutionsclosetourbancentres,includingverticalfarmingwithelaboratecropsequencesattoplevel.Second-generationbio-fuelswhicharenolongerbasedoncropsbutonplantwasteprovidefarmerswithadditionalrevenue.Inviewofthehugeglobalproblems,includingforthesecuritysituation,therearepoliticalchangesintheregulationofbio-technology.
Shortage of raw materials in the agricultural sector
|514.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Agriculturalenterprisesinregionsremotefrommarketsandlackingfavourablenaturalconditionsbenefitfromnewcompetitiveopportuni-ties.Enterprisesinthefoodandanimalfeedindustrywhichrelyonimportsareconfrontedwithvolatileandsteeplyrisingpurchasingprices.
EmploymentintheGermanagriculturalsectorremainsstablebe-causerisingcostscanbepassedontothoseconsumerswhotendtorejectgeneticallymodifiedfood.Therearemorejobsinthechemicalindustryandinagriculturaltechnologies.Onbalance,theeffectforvaluecreationinGermanyislikelytobearoundneutraltoslightlypositive.
Effects
52
Area of activity – communicationThefutureoftheinternethasonlyjustbegun.Itissteadilypervadingallareasoflife.Virtualnetworking,flexibleformsofcooperationandorganisationarecatapultingcommunicationintoanewdimension.
Enterprisesfindthemselvesincreasinglyconfrontedwithnewcus-tomercommunitiesandmustorientatetheirvaluecreationprocessesmorecloselythanevertotheneedsoftheirtargetgroups.
Machinesreactdirectlytothespokenword,knowledgemanagementinenterprisesisrevolutionised.Therealworld–livingspaces,vehiclesandhighways–isequippedwithsensors,andinformationandcommunicationtechnology.Itmergeswiththevirtualworldandtheworldofpeople.The“InternetofThings”isborn.
|534.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Explanationsoftheeffectsofthedisruptionsofvaluecreationcanbefoundonp.101
Figure 10:Disruptions in the communications area of activity
PoSItIon dISruPtIon eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 Individualisedmediause +/- + becomesstandard
2 The“InternetofThings”opensup + + completelynewbusinesspotential
3 Community-basedcustomerbehaviour + + burststheboundsoftraditional businessmodels
4 Knowledge-basedsystemsat (-)/+ + thecentreoffuturevaluecreation
54
Entry scenarioIntelligentsurroundingsandinteractingobjectsfacilitatepeople’slives.Trafficflowscanbeoptimisedtoconserveresources.Productsareequippedwithamemorythatcancommunicatewithitsenviron-ment.Robotsrecognisetheirphysicalenvironmentandcanactindependently.Productionandlogisticprocessesarefurtherauto-mated,renewableenergiescanbebetterutilisedandpeopleathomearesupportedinconspicuously(ambientassistedliving).
The“InternetofThings”opensupenormousbusinesspotentialintheareasofautomation,logistics,automobiles,health,agingpopulation,environment,energy,businessprocessesandsecurity.Industrialproductionwillundergoafundamentalchange.Technicalsystemswillthemselvestakeovermanagement,controlandplanning.
The “Internet of Things” taps completely new business potential
|554.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Greateffortsarebeingmadeinthisarea,namelyintheUSAandChina.Interdisciplinaryworkinresearchanddevelopmentisbecom-ingacriticalfactorinsuccess.Systemsanddomainknow-howformsthetechnologicalbase.Inparticular,thetransferofresearchresultstoapplicationsmustbespeededup.Sustainablebusinessmodelsandpreciselytailoredcustomersolutionsmustbedeveloped.OnlyifGermanyconsistentlyexploitstheinnovationpotentialoftheinternetcanitcontinuetoplayinthetopleague.Educationandtrainingareadecisiveprecondition.Thismeansknowledgeandroutineinhandlingthedigitalmediainparticular.
TheimpactonemploymentispositiveowingtothemajorbusinesspotentialandthegoodstartingpositionofGermanindustryinrelevantapplications.Grossvaluecreationbenefitsaboveallthroughariseinproductivity.
Effects
56
Entry scenarioTheinternetisbecomingnotonlyincreasinglypivotalforbusinessactivitiesbutisalsomoreandmoreformingtheplatformforcustom-ers.Customercommunitiestherebyacquireincreasinglystrongernegotiatingpowerasagainstsuppliers.Theopenexchangeofexperiencesoftheinternetcollectivemeansnotonlyaclearriseinproducttransparency.Informationaboutbadworkmanshipandpoorservicespreadsinamatterofhours.Evensporadicproductdeficien-ciescanleadtoanabruptlossoftrust.Thatiswhyhighproductqualityiscruciallyimportantintheageoftheinternetasneverbefore.Theinternetconfersoncustomerstheabilitytocompareoffersmuchmorequicklyandtochangetheirsupplier.Ataremarkablespeedcustomersact,fluctuateandreplacesuppliers.However,theattacksofthesecommunitiesdonotalwaysconformtotherulesoffairplay.
Community based customer behaviour bursts the bounds of traditional business models
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Inthemarketplacethepositionsofcompetitors,suppliersandcustomersareinmotion.Businessenterprisescanbesteamrolleredbythisdynamicprocess,ortheycanexploititfortheirownends.Prideofplaceistakenbyemotionalcustomerandbrandbondingforwhichthefoundationstoneiscredibleandprofessionalcommunica-tion.Solutionssuchascloudcomputingandsoftwareasaservicehavegreatpotentialforbindingcustomers.However,thevarietyofapplications,coupledwithgeneralcostpressureandadropinprices,generatesspecialmarketstructureswhosedynamismfaroutstripsthatoftheclassicdisplacementcompetition.Inaddition,earlycustomerbondingpromisesnotonlyanimprovementinproductsbutalsothattheirfurtherdevelopmentwillbeorientedtodemand.
Germanindustryisingoodshapetofacethesechallenges.Germanbrandsenjoyanexcellentreputationtheworldover.Thatiswhyaslightlypositiveeffectonemploymentistobeexpected.Thesameappliestogrossvaluecreation.
Effect
58
Entry scenarioAllstepsinabusinessprocessaresupportedbyknowledge-basedsystems.Atanytimestaffcancallupdataandinformation,irrespec-tiveofwhereitistobefound.Intheprocessnewcontext-relatedknowledgeisgenerated.Routinetasksareautomatedandtendtobeeliminated.Bymeansofknowledgemanagementandknowledge-basedsystems,enterprisesandproductionprocessescanbecontrol-ledinrealtime,drawingoninformationfromallovertheworld.Technicalsystemsalsoexchangeknowledgeindependently.Robotsorsoftwareagentswhichcarryoutcontroltasksareexamples.Thesealsoincludeautomaticproductionsystems.Knowledge-basedsystemsplayakeyroleinthe“InternetofThings”.Theendresultisincreasedproductivityandefficiency.Whetherinthehealthsector,themobilityorenergyindustry,comprehensiveinformationisthefounda-tionforavarietyofnewbusinessmodels–dataasthe“virtualgold”ofanetworkedeconomy.
Knowledge-based systems at the centre of future value creation
|594.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation
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Asalways,thereisadownside.Dataprotectionanddatasecuritytakecentrestage.Criticismfromnumerousscepticsleadstoimprove-ments.Itisoftendemonstratedinpracticethatknowledgemanage-mentisnotrivialmatter.Beingswampedbyinformationisandremainsanissueandthesameappliestodatagraveyards.Aboveall,knowledgeandknowledgetransferinorganisationsarealwaysattachedtopeopleandarepartofthecorporateculture.Knowledgeconferspowerandthereforemustnotbetheprivilegeofindividualpersons.Itispreciselyinthisfieldthatinformationandcommunica-tiontechnologymakesasignificantcontributionthroughthedevelop-mentofintelligentalgorithmsforpowerfulsearchengines.
Numerousservicesarisearoundknowledge-basedsystems,forexampleinfurthertraining.Theseopportunitieswillbegraspednotonlybythemajorplayersbutalsobynicheenterprises.Whereasroutinejobswillceasetoexist,atthesametimenewjobswillariseforsoftwarespecialists,architectsofknowledge-basedsystems,systemsadministratorsandspecialistsforintelligentagentsandassociatedjobprofiles.Theemploymenteffectispositive.ForGermanindustryknowledge-basedsystemsalsocontributetoenhancementofexportcapacity.Thisresultsinapositiveeffectforgrossvaluecreation.
Effects
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Area of activity – securityTheworldofthefuturewillalsobeavulnerableworld.Anditsvulnerabilityisheightenedbythenetworkingofcomplexsystems,thevirtualisationofbusinessprocessesandtheautomationofworkprocesses.Contemporarycivilisationisespeciallydependentonitsinfrastructure,whichwillbeallthemoretrueinfuture.Especiallyworthyofprotectionaretheareasofenergy,includingalltheutilitysupplies(gas,water,districtheating),health,transport,communica-tions,andnaturallythesupplyoffoodforthepopulationandofrawmaterialsforindustry.Themutualinterdependenceofthesystemswillbecomeevenmoreintensive,especiallywithregardtomobilityandenergy.Inallbranchesofindustrytheissueofsecurityistakingonfargreaterrelevance.
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Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101
Figure 11: Disruptions in the security area of activity
PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 Increasedsystemscomplexity–greater + + hazardpotential–extentofglobalharm
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Entry scenarioThescenariosforthreatsareasdiverseasthetargetsunderattack.Theycanbetriggeredbyenvironmentalcatastrophes,potentiallyindimensionsneverpreviouslyexperienced,withtheprincipalcausebeingclimatechange.Casesoftechnicalfailurecanalsoberesponsi-ble,withotherpossibilitiesbeingterrorismorwhitecollarcrime.Asarule,theperpetratorsarehardtoidentify,theyoftenemployanelementofsurprise.Targetedattacksoncriticalpoints–thewatersupplyorpowerstations,forexample–cancausedramaticdamageandhazards.Cascadingeffectsarealwayspossible,infutureevenmoresowithincreasinginterconnectivity.The“InternetofThings”isultimatelyatechnologywhichdrivesthenetworkingofsystemsforwardtoadecisiveextent.Thereisacorrespondingdegreeofpotentialharm,forexamplebytargetedviralattacksonITsystemsorotherformsofcybercrime.
Increased systems complexity – greater hazard potential – extent of global harm
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Thevulnerabilityofinfrastructureisequivalenttothevulnerabilityofsociety.Atriskarestateinstitutions,IT-basedbusinessprocesses,organisations,firmsandadministrations,industrialcomplexesandtransportsystems,gatheringsofpeopleandmajorevents.Thislistalonemakesitclearhowfragilewhatwecallnormalityhasbecome.Thetargetsofattacksarefrequentlypersonswhoarenotinvolvedoronlypresentbychance.Thoseaffectedfeelbothhelplessandpowerless.
Asthethreatsincrease,sodoesinterestindefenceagainstthem.Securitystandardsaretightenedup,ifnotvoluntarilythenbyregula-tion.Suppliersofeffectivesolutionsinsecurityissueswillmeetwithmajordemand.Theseincludedigitalprotectionmechanisms,high-performancesecuritysoftwareandconsultancyservices.Thesuscep-tibilityofsupplynetworkscanpossiblybecounteredwithadditionalcapacitytoabsorbandcushiondisruptionandbyincreasingreserves.Asarule,highersafetystandardsalsomeanhighercosts.
Germanenterprisesdependoncomplexsecurityproductsandserviceswhichdeterminetheircompetitivenesstoaconsiderabledegree.Thisistrueofthesoftwarebranch,forexample,butalsoofthewholesupplyinfrastructure,fromelectricitytofood.Theknow-howofGermanindustrymustalsobesafeguarded.Directandindirectemploymenteffectsensuefromallofthesefactors.AleadingpositionforGermanyinsecuritytechnologyandknow-howharboursmajorexportpotential.
Effects
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Super-ordinate framework conditionsThefollowingdisruptionsarenotassignedtoparticularcategories.Theireffectsarefeltacrosstheboundariesofallsectorsandaregeneralissues.Theyfocusontheoverallframeworkconditionsofvaluecreation,whetherofasocial,political,ormacro-economicnature.Ongoingmonitoringofthisoverallsettingispartofthestandardrepertoryoffuturepolicyforassociationsandenterprises.
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Explanationsoftheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101
Figure 12: Disruptions in the area of super-ordinate framework conditions
PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon
1 LackoftechnologyacceptanceinEurope +/(-) +/-
2 Declininglevelofqualityandinvestment + +/(-) blockagethroughlackofskilledlabour
3 Reciprocaleffectsinglobalfinance - - andmonetarysystemandemergence ofnewplayers
4 Questionmarkagainstdevelopment - - ofinternationaltraderelations
5 Completeinternalisationof + + externalcosts
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Entry scenarioTherisksofnewtechnologiesareoftenconsideredtobegreaterthantheopportunities.Thisappliesespeciallytogeneticandnanotechnol-ogy,andequallytomajortechnologicalprojects.Thepublicfeelsgreatuneaseaboutthedangersforhumanbeingsandtheenvironment.Thereasonforclingingtothestatusquoisinadequatecommunica-tionbetweenpoliticians,enterprisesandthepublic.Asaresult,manytechnologiesthathavealreadybeendevelopedarenotputtouse.Incomparisonwithotherregions,Europeriskslosingoutowingtoawidespreadattitudeofrejection.Longandcomplicateddecision-mak-ingprocessesalsoimpederapidimplementationofprojectsfromtheideatotheproductreadyformarket.
Lack of acceptance of technology in Europe
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Thisdevelopmentgivesrisetofewopportunities.Atbestthemakersofsustainableproducts,fromfoodviaclothingtode-centrallygener-ated,renewableenergies,canbenefitfromit.Theexpansionofnewinfrastructureisdelayedoriscancelled.Thisincludes:expandingairports,constructingsmartgridsoroffshorewindparks.Publicinvestmentinresearchintonewtechnologiesfalls.Asaresult,industryrelocatesitsresearchanddevelopmentactivitiesinregionsmorefriendlytoinnovation,inAsiaandNorthandSouthAmerica.TheconsequencesforgrowthandcompetitivenessinEuropeanindustryaredramatic.
Suchdevelopmentsindicateaclearlynegativeinfluenceonemploy-mentinGermany.Atfirstmanufacturingindustryishit,followedbytheservicessector.Aslumpingrossvaluecreationisprobable.Realincomesfallbyinternationalstandards.
Effects
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Entry scenarioThereasonsforthefuturelackofskilledlabouraremanifold.Thedemographicdevelopmentisamajorfactor:fewerandfeweryoungpeople,moreandmoreelderlyones.Thenumberofyoungpeopleenteringthelabourmarketisfalling.Thereisnoshortageofideasonhowtocounteracttheshortageofskilledlabour.Theyrangefrommeasurestocutthenumberoftraineesabandoningtrainingtorecruitingsuitablyqualifiedpersonnelfromabroad.Ifthesemeasuresfailtohaveresults,thelackofskilledworkersandtop-levelstaffwillbedramaticbytheyear2030.Thisappliesabovealltoprofessionslinkedtomathematics,engineering,science,andtechnology,andalsothoseinhealthandnursingcare.Thedevelopmenthasseriousconsequencesfortheinnovativepoweroftechnologicalcompanies.Partsofenterpriseswillbemovedabroad.Germanywillsteadilylosegroundasanindustriallocation.
Declining level of quality and blockage of investment through lack of skilled labour
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Ifintelligentprocedureisfollowed,therearealsoopportunitiesinthisdevelopment.Valuecreationshiftstoenterpriseswhichmakeeffectiveuseoftheirskilledstaff.Thedegreeofautomationrises.Thereisanexpansioninworkthatismobileandindependentoflocation.Enterprisesfocusonsynergyeffectsbyusingskilledpersonnelfrompartnersinvaluecreation,forexamplethroughopeninnovationandprojectwork.Thereisalsogreaterautomationinmedicineandnursingcare,forexampleinmonitoringnursingcarepatientsviatheinternet.
However,theriskspredominate.Enterpriseswhicharenotabletosecuretheskilledpersonneltheyrequirefallbehindinthecompetitiveprocess.Theycannotcompeteintheinnovationrace.Thisispartlytheresultofhighwagecosts,ifindeedthewageslevelcanbeheldto.Valuecreationmovestootherregions,suchasAsia.Ifthingsgowell,Germanfirmsrelocateorcreatenewlocationsabroad.Iftheygobadly,thewholevaluecreationmigrates.Areductioninemploymentcanbeexpectedaboveallintheexportindustryandthehealthsector,alongwithjobsinmathematics,engineering,scienceandtechnology.Inextremecases,wholeareaswillberelocatedifkeypostscannotbefilled.Valuecreationinproducingindustryfalls.Theprofitsofthesuppliersofautomationtechnologywillnotbeabletomakeupforthisloss.
Effects
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Entry scenarioGlobalregulationofthefinancialmarketsintheG-20frameworkremainsdifficult.Itispossiblethatthebanksslipbackintoriskyspeculation.Atthesametime,manycentralbanksarekeepingtotheirpolicyofcredit-orientedexpansion.Andarealignmentofglobalmonetarypolicyisnotyetinsight.Thehighlevelofsovereigndebtinmanycountrieswillputastrainonnationalbudgetsformanyyearstocomeandcanleadtofallinginvestmentratios.Inthiscontextadoubledip,anothermonetaryandfinancialcrisis,isdefinitelypossible.Theeffectwillbetosteertheglobaleconomyintoaprotract-edrecession.Ultimately,sovereignstatesaretheguarantorsofstability.Yetsincetheyarealreadyheavilyindebt,theirroomformanoeuvreinanysubsequentcrisisisseverelylimited.Packagesrunningintobillionstostimulatetheeconomyareunlikely.
Reciprocal effects in the global finance and monetary system and the arrival of new players
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Inthissituationenterpriseswhichhaveahighlevelofequitycapitalarebetterplacedforcompetition.Yetthedecisivefactorsforwith-standingarenewedcrisisareabroad,cross-sectoralportfolioofproductsandservicesandorientationtowardsmarketsofthefuture.Newplayerssuchasinternationalsovereignwealthfundsfromoil-richcountriesorChinainvestinexpandingenterprisesorbuythemup.Naturally,dependenceoninvestorsalsohasrisksattached.Yetthechancespredominateofreducingprotectionisttendencies.
Otherrisksforthecaseofadoublediparemoreobvious.Govern-mentswillattempttocopewithadifficultsituationinthelabourmarketorintheeconomygenerallybyimposingmoreregulation.Thatcouldimposeconstraintsonenterprisesandresultintheclosingofsomelocations.Moreover,thereremainstheriskofinflation,causedbyexpansivemonetarypolicyandexcessivenationaldebt,thoughhyperinflationisnotlikely.Allthesame,adistinctriseininflationratesisbadforgrowthandemployment,notleastbecauseaslumpintaxrevenuesandahighburdenofdebtforcesgovernmentstoundertakefurthercutsininvestment.
Asanexportingnation,Germanywouldbehardhitbyanybreak-upoftheeurozoneandanotherglobaleconomiccrisis.Thelevelofemploymentwouldbelikelytofall,saleswouldplungeandamassiveslumpinvaluecreationwouldbetheconsequence.
Effects
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Entry scenarioTheglobalvolumeoftradehasbeenrisingforyears.Afterthefinancialandeconomiccrisisitdeclinedatfirstbutonanoptimisticassessmentthesignsareagainpointingtogrowthinthecomingyears.Butthingscanchange.Weareassumingincreasingprotection-ismintherawmaterialssectorandastrategicshortageofmineralandenergyrawmaterialsintheMiddleEast,RussiaorSouthAmerica.Ifthesetendenciesbecomereallyserious,industrialnationswithfewrawmaterialscouldtrytoprotecttheirdomesticmarketswithimporttariffs,borderadjustmentmeasures,orproductionsubsidies.Freeworldtradewouldsuffergreatly.
Question mark against the development of international trade relations
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Hightechenterprisesrelyonstrategicrawmaterials,asisillustratedbysomeexamples:indiumforLCDs,tantalumforcondensers,yttriumforlasers.InEuropeprotectionismleadstolostoutput.Evenenter-priseswhichrelocatetheirproductioninrawmaterialsproducingcountriesaredisadvantagedasagainstdomesticindustry.Notmerelyhigh-techenterprisesbutalsoenergy-intensivebranchessuchasthesteelindustryexperiencecompetitivedisadvantages.Chemicalandpharmaceuticalenterpriseswhichdependoncomplexchainsofsupplyforrawmaterialsandinputproductsfaceaseriousthreatfromsupplybottlenecks.ThelossofinternationalsalesmarketscreatesturmoilfortheGermanautomobileindustry.Substantialfallsinexportsforceenterprisestocutjobsandwagelevels.
Ontheotherhandthereareopportunities,thoughratherfewandfarbetween.Asustainedscarcityofrawmaterialsbenefitsthoseenter-prisesinparticularwhichopenuptheirownsourcesofrawmaterials,enhancetheirresourceefficiencyorcansubstitutecriticalrawmaterials.Opportunitiesforgrowthalsoariseforindustrieswhichoffernewsupporttechnologiesandinfrastructure,forexamplesatellite-assistedgeo-servicesorrobotsformining.
Onbalance,theeffectonemploymentismarkedlynegative.However,somenewemploymentopportunitiesariseinlocaltradesandintheservicesarea.Grossvaluecreationalsosuffers.Atrendtorisingdomesticdemandcannotmakeupforlossesinexports.
Effects
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Entry scenarioTheEuropeanUnionbecomesconvincedthatrobustecologicalcarriersystemsarecrucialforthelongtermhealthofnationaleconomies.Theenvironmentalimpactofproductsandservicesarepriced.Inthemeantimethenecessaryindicatorsandmeasuringinstrumentsareavailablesothatthemechanismwithwhichwearefamiliarfromemissionstrading(EU-ETS,EmissionTradingScheme)isappliedbranchbybranchtothewholeofindustry.Whethergreen-housegases,emissionsintheatmosphere,waterorearth,activitieswhichimpairbiodiversity,allecologicaldimensionsarecovered.Themeasuresofinternalisationgrowhandinhand.Apartfrompenalties,bonuspaymentsaregraduallymadeforproactivemeasuresinthesettingofindustry.
Complete internalisation of external costs
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Massiverestructuringsaretheconsequence.Forexample,thecomprehensiveETSsystemhikesuplogisticcosts,especiallyfortransportbyroadhaulageandfromoverseas.Localsuppliersaretheoneswhobenefit.Fortheendcustomerthereisgreatertransparencysincethepricesnowtelltheecologicaltruth.Marketopportunitiesareenhancedforthosewhowerepreviouslynichesuppliers.Thesystemofbonusesandpenaltiesalsooffersincentivestoeconomiseonmaterialortoprolongproductlifecycles.Suppliersofmodularproductswhichcanbeeasilyrepairedcanbenefitfromthis.Incontrast,thoseenterprisesloseoutwhichdonotadjusttheirproductsandproductionprocessesquicklyenoughtothechangedconditions.Energy-intensiveareasofindustrysuchasaluminiumproductioncanbeexpectedtomigrate.Theincreaseincostofenergywillleadtoserioussetbacksinnearlyallareasofindustry.Aviationandtourismwillsuffersincethepriceofairtravelwillrise.
Thetraditionalbranchesofindustryarelikelytobeseriouslychal-lengedwiththeinternalisationofexternalcosts.Asaresultofmassiverestructuring,intheshorttomediumtermmanyjobswillbemovedabroad.Thiswillaffecttheautomobileindustry,ofcentralpivotalimportanceforGermany,aswellasplantandmechanicalengineer-ing.Ontheotherhand,inthemediumtolongtermnewjobswillbecreatedininnovation-drivenbranches.Asignificantdropinvaluecreationcannotfailtooccur.Yetthiscanbepossiblyoffsetinthefieldsofrenewableenergies,environmentaltechnologyandwork-intensiveproductservices.Inthemediumtermthemostlikelyoutcomeisanincreasedlevelofemploymentwithlowerincomeperhead.
Effects
76
Nowthatthepossibledisruptionsinthefivemajorareasofactivityhavenowbeeninvestigated,itshouldbepossibletogainfurtherinsightfromtheanalysisintofuturevaluecreation.Acloserscrutinyoftheresultsfromoverallperspectiveofallbranchesofindustryandenterprisesrevealssomegeneralpatterns.Fivecentralfindingsonthelong-termchangeinvaluecreation,knownastheparadigmshift,wereidentifiedaspartoftheproject.Itbecomesclearthatthingsdonotbecomesimplerbutmorecomplicated.Andvolatilityrises.
Cooperation management between sectors becomes the critical factor for success in innovation systems geared to value creation.Theboundariesbetweenbranchesofindustryhavelongbeenfluid.Thedecisivestepintothefutureisanoffensiveinterlinkingwithintraditionalbranchesandwithnewones.Thisproducesinnovationandnewbusinessmodels.Providinginexpensive,uncomplicatedandseamlessmobilityforthecustomerisamatterforplayersfromtheautomobileindustry,theenergysectorandtheITindustryaswellasrepresentativesfromcitiesandlocalauthorities.Afterall,electricautomobilesalsohavetobeparkedandrecharged.Theswitchfromcartoplaneorbicycleshouldbesimpleandrelaxed.Thisrequiresplatformswithdiversecompetencesandtheabilitytodeviseproduct-serviceinnovations,notleasttheactivemanagementoftheinterfacesinthenewhybridvaluecreationstructures.
Singleenterprisesinisolationwilltendnottobeapositiontoestablishthedecisiveinnovationsinthemarket.Thewinnerswillbethosewhosucceedinenlistingthevitalstakeholdersforjointstrategies.Thetaskinvolvesassemblingthecompetenceofinternalandexternalknowl-edgeworkersinawaythatisflexibleandproject-related.Itisaquestionoftemporarypartnershipsandtheacceptanceofsolutionsfortheuser.
5. Paradigm shift in value creation
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In the change from partial to holistic innovationSystemsinnovationacrosssectoralboundariesandthedevelopmentofintegratedvaluecreationchainshaveonedecisiveprecondition:thedevelopmentofnewbusinessmodels.Seamlessmobilityrequiresofplayersfromdiversebranchesthattheycreatenewpackagesofproductsandservices.Theseconsist,forexample,ofvehicles,withrealtimetrafficinformation,trafficcontrolsystems,accesstechnologyandotherservices.Inmanycasesthereisawiderdispersionofprofits,butalsoofrisks.
Germany’sinnovationscenetodayisdominatedbyproducts,services,andprocesses.Infuture,businessmodelswillbegivencloserconsiderationfromtheoutset,togetherwiththeattendantfinancinginstrumentsandcriteria.Theperspectiveoftheuserisdecisive.
Sustainable innovations provide the central leverage of value creation.Ifthefossil-basedworldenergysystemhastobedecarbonisedinthelongtermandshortagesofrawmaterialsdemandresource-extensiveeconomy,thennobranchofindustrywillbeabletoescape.Theprocessisdrivennotonlybyecologicalbutalsosocialrequirements,withinnovationsinthetechnicalandsocialareas.Stepbysteptheissueofsustainabilityisassertingitselfinallmarkets,adevelopmentwhichblurstraditionalbranchboundariesandgivesrisetonewvaluecreationchains.Forenterprises,greaterimportanceisattachedtonewinstrumentswhichtakeaccountoftheholisticapproachofsustainability.Innovationwhichisfitforthefuturebecomesthemaindrivingforceofgrowth.
Realscarcitiesandchangedvaluesinitiatethetransformationwhichrespondstotheneweconomicnecessities.Industry’smaterialflowsandexchangeprocessesarere-configuredbecauseawarenessgrowsoflongertermscarcities.
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Formation of new alliances – from shareholder value to stakeholder valueEnterprisesoperateinincreasinglycomplexsystemsofproductsandservices,makingnewbusinessmodelsnecessary.Moreover,theyhavetocoordinatetheirbusinessactivitiesmorecloselywithdiverseinterestgroupsinordertopreservetheirlicencetooperate.Oneexampleisprovidedbytheinternetcustomercommunitiesalreadymentioned,whichsubstantiallystrengthenthepositionoftheenduserinthemarket.
Whileenterprisesfundamentallyremainorientedtoprofits,theyaresubjectedtopublicdebates.Theconcurrenceoforientationtoprofitandtothegoodofthecommunityrepeatedlytakescentrestageindiscussions.Indeed,businessactivitiescomeunderincreasingsocialpressuretojustifythemselves.Allthisproducesthefutureneedtoincludeveryearlyonthevariousstakeholders–socialgroupings,NGOs,andaboveallthecustomers–inbusinessprocesses.Thisfacilitatesinnovation.Ifthereisafailureofcommunication,problemsofacceptancecansoonemergeintherelationshipofbusinessandpoliticswithsocietyingeneral.Thisiscurrentlybecomingclearintheplanningofnewenergyinfrastructure,withdebatesoversitesforwindturbinesandroutesfornewpowerlines.Enterpriseshavetolearntoenterthisplayingfieldandtofindabalancebetweentheexpectationsofthevariousclaimantgroupings.
Enterprises,especiallythoseinmarketsclosetoconsumers,arerewardediftheysucceedinactivelyincludingcustomersandstake-holdersinvariousstagesofvaluecreation–indevelopment,produc-tion,orsales.
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Change from classic planning processes to management and control of complexityItisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttoplanmarkets.Uncertaintyandinstabilityinthecompetitiveenvironmentarepartofthenewnormal-ity.Controllingthemisbecomingthecentralchallenge.Yetthatisbynomeansall.Rawmaterialspricesfluctuate,thepoliticalsettingchanges,economiccyclesgrowshorter,crisesalternatewithbooms.Thevulnerabilityoftheincreasinglyvirtualbusinessprocessesgrowsandcyberattacksareaconstantthreat.
Enterprisescanreacttohighvolatilitybyadjustingtoit,forexamplebyconcludinglong-termagreementsforrawmaterials.Theycanalsosubjecttheirmarketstopermanentmonitoringandimprovetheirownreactionspeed.Thisamountstoachangeofsystem,abandoningtheclassicplanningprocessandswitchingtothecontrolofcomplexity,possiblybyinterlinkingdifferentsystemscomponentsandoperators.Organisationalformschangeaccordingly,movingawayfromlinear-hierarchicalstructurestowardsthemanagementofflowsofcapital,goodsandmaterialindecentralisednetworks.Thefocalpointofvaluecreationmovesinthedirectionof“intelligence”(software,brainware)ofproducts,towardstheacceptanceofutilisationconceptsandnewservice-orientedbusinessmodels.
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Germanyrequiresanewinnovationpolicyorientedtovaluecreation.Thetechnologyorientationwhichhassofarbeendominantisreachingitslimits.Anopensocietythatiscapableoflearningneedsexpandedformsofparticipation,newrulesofthegameandresponsi-bilities.Itisamatterofdevelopinganewcultureofinnovationbasedontheparticipationofthegroupsaffectedandwhichaimsatabasicconsensusinsociety.Thenewcultureofinnovationrequiresinter-branchcooperation,anoverallenvironmentandpolicy-makingdevisedforthelongterm.Nottheleastofitsrequirementsisanewunderstandingofthecommonchallengesandtherecognitionthatthecomplexproblemscanonlybemasteredbytheinteractionofindustry,science,politicsandsociety.Inthislightinnovationcanbeseentodayasaffectingthewholeofsociety.Itistomakeacontributiontothegreatchallengesofthe21stcentury,whethertheybeissuesoffoodandhealth,landutilisationandthedevelopmentofurbanspaces,climatechangeandenergy,mobilityandinformation,orshortageofresourcesandsecurity.
6. Future perspectives for value creation in germany
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6.1 Recommendations for innovation policy geared to value creation
Therecommendationsweredrawnupbymembersoftheworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,supplement-edbyrepresentativesoftheBDI(seeappendix).Theyderivefromthedisruptionanalysesofthepresentstudyandarebasedonexistingproposals,forexamplethosefromacatechandtheFraunhoferGesellschaft.Aselectionof23recommendationsfollows.5Selectedpointsoffivequestionsofresearchpromotionwereaddressed.Therewasanawarenessthatoptimisationoftheuseofscarcepublicfundswasrequiredalongwithadeeperandquantitativeanalysis.
5 AllrecommendationsintheGermanfull-scaleversionunderwww.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie.htm
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Area of activity – mobility
National mobility strategyThepromotionofelectro-mobilityiscurrentlyenjoyingmaximumattention.Technicalissues,suchaspropulsionandstoragesystems,playanimportantpart.Inaddition,Germanyrequiresamulti-modalmobilitystrategytomaketransportfitforthefutureinthelongterm.Thisincludestheimprovementoftrafficflows,thereductionofresourceconsumption,increasingtheefficiencyofallmeansoftransportinordertocutnegativeenvironmentaleffects,betterlinkingofmeansoftransportandnotleastthemaintenanceofaffordablemobility.Thegoalsshouldbelaiddowninanationalmobilityindex,prioritisedandsubjectedtoongoingmonitoringintheirimplementa-tion.Forexample,theauthoritiesatmunicipalandregionallevelcouldsetoutcriteriaonthestatusquoofmobilityandinformwhatexactlytheywishtoachieveinfuture.Ultimatelycustomerdemandiscrucial,butthesustainabilityrequirementsmustbetakenintoconsideration.
Intelligent transport infrastructure and inter-modalityOptimisingthewholemobilitystructureistothebenefitofthepublic,industryandtheenvironment.ItshouldcontinuetobeanimportantgoalofGermantransportpolicy.Thedevelopmentofinformation,communicationandtrafficcontrolsystemsshouldthereforecontinuetobetheobjectofresearch.ThisappliesespeciallytoIT-assistedinterfacemanagementforseamlessmobilityfromdoortodoorcoveringalltransportmeansrequired.However,asyettherearenoadequatefindingsonhowtransportfeaturinginter-modalitywouldaffectthefinancingofinfrastructure.Apartfrompromotingresearchitwouldthereforebeexpedienttosupportpilotprojectsinthefieldofintermodaltransportsystems.Appropriatescenariosshouldbedevisedtoexploretheconditionsinwhichinter-modalitycanbefinanceableandcanpromisesuccess.
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Socio-ecological mobility researchInthemediumtermthebehaviouroftransportuserswillradicallychange.Inordertounderstandandanticipatetheseprocesses,thecontinuationofsocio-ecologicalmobilityresearchisrecommended.Thisincludesinparticularinvestigationsintomobilitybehaviour(inter-modalityandmulti-modality)andintotheattitudeofusersandofsocietytowardscertainmodesoftransport.
Aviation researchItistobeexpectedthattheboomincommercialaircraftwillcontinue,whilecompetitionbecomeskeeneratthesametime.InordertopreservealeadingpositionfortheGermanaviationindustryinthecommercialaircraftmarketthetargetedpromotionofresearchcontinuestobenecessary.Onemainemphasismustbeontheeco-efficiencyofaviation.Inthelongterm,thegrowthexpectedmustnotimposetooundueastrainontheenvironment.Flyingmustbecomecarbondioxideneutral,whichmeansnewconceptsforpropulsionsystems,lightweightconstructionandweightreduction,improvementinaerodynamicsetc.
Electro-mobility competenceDomesticcarsalesarestagnating.Incontrast,electro-mobilitycanprovidegrowthinaforeseeableterm.The“nationalelectro-mobilitydevelopmentplan”shouldbeusedtogainGermanyaleadinelectro-mobility.EstablishingGermanyinbatterycompetencebytargetedresearchpromotionwouldbeanecessaryapproachinordertoreducedependenceonothermanufacturingcountries.Otherissueswouldbethesubsidisingofinfrastructureforresearchandproductionplantalongwiththepromotionofcooperationbetweenbranchesofindustry.
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Climate and energy area of activity
Framework conditions for favourably priced and efficient energyAsecure,globallycompetitive,reasonablypricedandefficientenergysupplyisamustforeverynationaleconomy.Inordertoachievethisgoal,theremustbetheproperframework,bothnationallyandinternationally.Thisrequiresmajorexpenditureonresearchanddevelopment.Thismeansbothbasicandappliedresearchanddevelopment,forexampleinchemicalsandplantconstruction.Theremustalsobeanexpansionofintelligentelectricitygridswithadequatestoragecapacityandflexibledemandcontrol,alongwithariseinefficiencyonbothsides,inenergygenerationandconsumption.Thereisalsostillmajorpotentialinbuildings,ininsulationandheatingtechnology.
Uniform European energy strategyTheswitchtoadecentralisedenergysystemmainlysuppliedfromrenewablesourcestakesyearsandindeeddecades.AuniformEuropeanenergystrategyisnecessaryforthistransformationtosucceed.Legislationandotherrulesandregulationsmustbeharmo-nised,andtrans-Europegridinfrastructuremustbeexpanded.Varyingenergystrategies,suchasthoseofGermanyandFrance,shouldalsobeharmonised.Comparablecompetitiveconditionsshouldbebroughtaboutandthetotalcostofrevampingthesystemshouldbelimited.AtthesametimedialoguewithrelevantsocialgroupslikeNGOsshouldbesteppedup.Thelinkingupofenergysystemswillgivegreaterimportancetolocalinfrastructure.Thisshouldbeinacross-bordercontext.Regionalconsensusisjustasimportantforsuccessasinternationalcooperation.
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Energy conservation and recycling economyIncertainareasofindustry,suchassteelandnon-ferrousmetals,majorsavingsinmaterialsandenergyareconceivablethroughrecycling.Recyclingconceptsthuspromisemajorpotentialforvaluecreation.Bymeansoftargetedpromotion,itshouldbepossibletodeveloptechnologicalprocesseswhichacceleratestillfurthertheeconomiceffectivenessofrecyclingandtherecoveryofrawmaterials.
Power station and efficiency technologiesTheexploitationofrenewableenergiesprobablyoffersGermanysubstantialopportunitiesforexports,especiallyinpowerstationandefficiencytechnologies.Marketsofthefuturealsoincludenewstoragesystems,whichwillprovidedecisiveleverageforalong-termconver-sionofenergysystems.Germanenterprisesshouldsecureaccesstothegrowingmarketsingoodtime.Officialforeigntradepolicycanassisttheseendeavours,forexampleintappingsolarenergyinGreeceorNorthAfrica.
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Health and nutrition area of activity
Clinical research for personalised medicine.Inordertoadvancethebreakthroughofpersonalisedmedicine,notonlyincreasedbasicandtranslationalresearchisnecessarybutalsoanticipatoryclarificationprocessesregardingthequestionofcosts.Costreductionsthroughmoreefficientandtargetedtreatmentcancounteractcostincreases,suchasthosecausedbythedevelopmentofmedicinesforsmallergroupsofpatients.Herethehealthcarestrategyofstatutoryandprivatehealthinsuranceorganisationstakesonkeyimportance.Personalisedmedicinestillrequiresahighdegreeofsocialacceptancethroughforesightinpatientanddataprotectionaswellasthepromotionofhighsafetystandards.
Interdisciplinary research networksResearchpromotionshouldconcentratemorecloselyoninterdiscipli-naryresearchnetworksandclustersofexcellenceintheconvergencefieldsofagriculture,pharmaceuticals,nutrition,andlifesciences.Greatsignificancealsoaccruestobasicandappliedresearchwhichinvestigatesmorecloselythelinksbetweennutritionandlong-termphysicalandmentalhealth,especiallyinordertodojusticetothechallengesofanagingsociety.Thewholefieldofinitialandadvancedtrainingshouldbeonaninterdisciplinarybasisandalsoflexiblydevisedinordertoadapttochangingrequirements.
Preventative health care and translational researchInthehealthandnutritionsectortheaimmustbetoestablishnewmodelsofcollaborationbetweenindustry,scienceandsocietyinordertopromotetranslationalresearchandintegratedpreventativehealthcare.Moreover,independentandanticipatoryriskandacceptanceresearchmustbedevelopedforgreenbio-technology.Finally,itmustbeassumedthattheissueoffoodandnutritionwillcontinuetobemetwithextremesensitivityinpublicperceptions.
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Area of activity – communication
Promotion of information and communicationOpenstandardsandprotocolsarerecommendedforpromotionintheframeworkofthelinkingoftechnicalsystemsattheEuropeanandinternationallevel.Thepromotionofresearchactivitiesin“servicesciences”andopeninnovationapproachesisalsorecommendedalongwitheducationalcampaignsondataprotectionandtherespon-siblehandlingofinformationandknowledge.Thisisbackedupbyatransparentinformationpolicyguidedbytheincreasinginterlinkingbetweenthedigitalandthephysicalworldandbythedrawingupofclearguidelinesfortheprotectionofintellectualproperty,especiallywithaviewtothegrowing(virtual)integrationofinnovationprocesses.
Knowledge-based IT solutions and use potentialAtthecentreofdevelopmentsshouldbetheintensificationofre-searchintoissuesofknowledge-basedtechnicalsystemsandalsothe“InternetofThings”.Furtherusepotentialshouldbetappedbyscenariosandthemicro-simulationofpossibleapplications.Thisincludesarapidprototypeimplementation.Thesameappliestoanacceleratedtransferoftheresultsofresearchanddevelopmentintomarketableproductsandapplications.Newbusinessmodelsshouldbedevelopedwhichalsoactivelyincludecustomersinthedevisingofprocessesandservices,forexamplebymeansofcooperationwithinfluentialcustomercommunities.
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Area of activity – security
Handling of sensitive date and threatsGeneralawarenessforhandlingsensitivedataandthreatsshouldbesharpenedbylong-terminformationcampaigns.However,thesearenotcredibleaslongasthereareblatantbreaches,forexampleinhandlingpersonneldata.Thismustbeavoidedforgood.Thisrequiresconcertedeffortsfromscience,politics,industryandsocialinterestgroups.InbusinessenterprisesthereshouldbebetterinterlinkingbetweeninternalandexternalITexportsandsecurityspecialists.
Complexity of security questionsInscience,researchanddevelopmentnewmethodsofriskanalysismustbedeveloped.Theyshouldtakeheedofthegrowinglinkingbetweendiversesystemsandtheresultingcomplexityofsecurityissues.Thisisespeciallytrueofnew,globalinteraction.Finally,theremustbeendeavourstoimprovecooperationbetweensuppliersofsecuritysystems,inparticularinthedevelopmentofinternationalstandardsforsecuritymechanisms.
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Overall framework
Promotion of acceptance of technology in EuropeBusinesses,associationsandpoliticiansshoulddevelopinstrumentstodetectveryearlyonthosecurrentsinsocietyreactingtotechnologi-caldevelopments.Thiscanpermitareactiontotrendsandcriticaldebatessuchascanbeobservedinsocialnetworks.However,itisprobablyevenmoreimportanttodevelopproactivehightechsce-narios,thesocial,ecologicalandeconomicuseofwhichcanbeclearlycommunicated.Inthefieldofenergysupplythiscouldbethe“CO2neutralcity”.Inthecommunicationofscientificandtechnologi-calpotentialandthedescriptionoftheuseofrelevantsolutionsitisimperativetoinformthepublicandcustomersasearlyaspossibleandtoactivelyincludethem.Developingcommunicationformats“betweenequals”isprimarilyapoliticaltask.ThedevelopmentofapictureofthefuturebyGermanyandEurope,includingtechnologicaldimensions,isstronglyrecommended.
Counteracting lack of skilled labourVocationaltrainingandupgradingisacornerstoneofinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreation.Whilenewmarketsareappearing,whetherinelectro-mobilityorinsecurity,newtrainingopportunitiesshouldbeprovidedfromtheoutsetbystateandprivatesuppliers.Onewayofalleviatingthelackofqualifiedstaffistoextendpeople’sworkinglife.EachyearlongerthatpeopleworkraisesvaluecreationinGermanyby3billioneuros.Inthelong-termtheGermangovernmentiscalledupontoeaseentrytothelabourmarketfurtherforhighlyqualifiedpersonnel.
Encouraging entrepreneurshipNottheleastimportantpartofthepackageofmeasuresforinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreationisencouragingentrepreneurship.Officialpoliciesshouldeaseandfinanciallysupportnewbusinessset-ups.Intheirturn,businessenterprisesarecalledupontomotivatetheiremployeestospotmarketopportunitiesandtodevelopmentideasandbusinessmodels.
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Stabilising the global finance and monetary systemAgainstthebackgroundofaloomingglobaleconomiccrisis,thegovernmentshouldworkflatouttodevisemeansofsustainingthefinancialandmonetarysystem.Thecentralfunctionofthefinancialsystemwasandremainstofinancetherealeconomy–todayareturntothisismorenecessarythaneverbefore.The“systemicrelevance”ofindividualfinanceinstitutionsharbourspotentialforblackmail.Thismustbecounteractedbysuitablemeasures.Thisincludesthedemergingoffinancialinstitutions.Thefoundationsofaviablefinancialandmonetarysystemaremonetarystabilityandtheconsoli-dationofpublicfinances.
Strengthening security of supply of raw materialsThenationalrawmaterialsstrategyshouldbeextendedtocoverEurope.Topprioritycontinuestobefreetradeinrawmaterials.Inaddition,thereareotherwaysofaccessingrawmaterials.Theseincludepurchasingalliances(atnationalorenterpriselevel),theestablishmentofrawmaterialsfundsorpartnershipswithcountriesrichinrawmaterials(securingrawmaterialsinexchangefortransferoftechnologyandvaluecreation).Inordertoforestallbottlenecksinresources,know-howinminingtechnologymustbepreservedandextendedtorelatedtechnicalareas(urbanmining,deepwatermining).
Strengthening recycling technologiesThecradle-to-cradle(c2c)approachreliesonqualifiedpersonnel.Trainingandfurthertrainingtakesonspecialimportance,particularlyintheareasofmaterialstechnology,productdesignandchemicals.
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Complete internalisation of external costsTheinternalisingofexternalcostsandofexternalyieldsisessentialforinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreation.Oneclassicinstrumentforinternalisingexternalyieldsisstatepromotionofresearch.Ininternalisingexternalcostsexperienceshowsthatregulationbyofficialpolicyismoreeffectivethanvoluntarycommitmentsbyindustry.Inordertoavoiddistortionsofcompetition,regulationshouldbeaccom-paniedbyinternationalagreements.Ifthatshouldnotprovepossible,onefeasiblemeanswouldbetoimposetariffsongoodsimportedfromcountriesinwhichexternaleffectsarenotpricedin.WTOrulesshouldalsotakeaccountofthis.Externaleffectsshouldbeimplementedwithinatimeschedulethatisbothambitiousandeconomicallysensible.Thiscouldminimisetheeconomicdislocations.
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6.2 Recommendations for innovation culture geared to value creation
Promotion of inter-sectoral cooperationAstheleadingorganisationofGermanindustry,theFederationofGermanIndustries(BDI)shouldperceivethedissolutionofclassicboundariesbetweenbranchesofindustryasanopportunity.Changewillcomeinanycaseandshouldthereforebeanticipatedandshapedintheinterestsofindustrialenterprises.Asapartnerforinnovationandvaluecreation,theBDIshouldparticipateindevisingnewpatternsofvaluecreation.
Itisthereforerecommendedthataworkinggroup“Inter-sectoralcooperationandnewpatternsofvaluecreation”shouldbefoundedwithintheBDI.Aclearassignmentshouldbeformulatedwithadefinitetimeschedule:openquestionsofsignificanceinthisfieldwillbediscussedandinvestigated;solutionsgearedtopracticewillbeframed.Importantissuesinthisareaaretheopportunitiesforandlimitstocooperation,thedesignoflegallybindingpartnershipmodels,theimportanceofintellectualproperty,thedevelopmentofprojecteconomystructuresandgloballyintegratedvaluecreationmodels.
Restrictionsaretobeanalysedandproposalsdevisedforovercomingthem.Throughouttheresultsshouldhavetheeffectofguidingactionandofhelpingenterprisesintheirimplementation.
New partnerships and forms of participationInnovationpolicygearedtovaluecreationrequirespartners.Uptonowthemainpointofcontacthasbeenthepoliticians.Itwillcontinuetobetheirtasktocreateinfrastructureandtheoverallframeworkandtoallocatethenecessaryfinancialresources.Politiciansarerecom-mendedtoactbeyondthehightechstrategyandtoinstitutionalisetheinterdepartmentalcoordinationandinterlinkingofareasofpolicy(family,education,integration,researchanddevelopmentpolicy)withrelevantactivitiesbyparliamentinthefieldofinnovationpromotion(forexamplethecommissionofenquiryortheofficefortechnologyimpactassessment).
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Fundamentalgoalsofinnovationpolicyshouldbediscussedanddeterminedinpublicdebate.Theworkintheexistingbodiesonresearch,technologyandinnovationpolicy(fromtheIndustry-ScienceResearchUnion6totheHigh-TechStrategyforGermanyoftheFederalgovernmenttothenationalplatformelectro-mobility)shouldbeopenedupforallplayersinsocietythroughpanelsforcontinuousdialogue.
Inthisconnectionrepresentativeformsofpoliticscouldbesupple-mentedbyconsultativeandplebiscite-typeelements.ExperiencessuchasweremadeinthegovernmentethicscommissionortheroundtableovertheStuttgart21railwayprojectcouldmakeacontribution.Suchactivitiesrequiresocialacceptance.Theyshouldbedesignedforthelongterm,independentlyofthelifetimeofasingleparliament.
Shaping by participationTheBDIshouldsendaclearpublicmessageforinnovationandvaluecreationinGermany.Itistobefocusedonatechnology-orientedprojectforthefuturewhichtheFederationselectswithitspartners.ItisrecommendedthatitbelinkedtotheIndustry-ScienceResearchUnion6.
Inthiswayaprojectcouldbecreatedsecuringnewwaysofparticipa-tioninanintegratedinnovationstrategy,atrainingfacilityinwhichfinancingquestions,administrativeproceduresandnewincentivesystemscanbetested.Web-baseddialoguesshouldaccompanytheproject.
Theexperiencegainedbenefitsallthoseparticipating:enterprises,researchinstitutes,cities,chambers,citizens’actiongroups,consum-erassociations,thepublicandthepoliticians.ItwouldbeaninvitationtoanewcultureofinnovationinGermany.
6 AconsultingcommitteetotheFederalMinisterofEducationandResearch
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Orientation as precondition for rational policy makingInnovationpolicyissocialpolicy.InajointinitiativethefederalgovernmentandtheBDIshouldkickstartabroadlybasedprocesstodevelopmodels,scenariosforaGermany2030thatisfitforthefuture.
Whilethescenarioswerebeingdevelopeditwouldalreadybecomeclearwhatobstacleshavetobeovercome,whatcompromiseshavetobemade,andaboveall,whatopportunitieswouldarisetosecurevaluecreationinGermanyonasustainablebasis.Theresultsshouldbeusedtoidentifynewclustersofvaluecreation.Inturn,recommen-dationscouldemergewhichservetoframegoalsforresearchandinnovationpolicyinordertotapmarketsofthefuture.
Themodelscenariosserveasanentrytoalong-termlearningprocess.Itwouldbeasuccessiftheissuesofinnovationandvaluecreationinalltheircomplexityweretomoveclosertothecentreofattention.Themodelscenariosshouldnaturallyserveasorientationforthoseinindustryandpolitics.
Foresight as a condition for changeGermanenterprisesareoftencommittedtoaculturefeaturingengineeringandtechnology.Thesecompaniesinparticularwoulddowelltofocusmoreontheircustomersandtheirrequirementswhendevelopingproductsandservices.Political,socialandculturaldevelopmentsarenamelydecisiveforunderstandingfuturemarkets.AgainstthisbackgroundtheBDIisrecommendedtosupportenter-prisesandassociationsincreatinganindependentforesightcompe-tence.Thisappliesespeciallytoresearchanddevelopment.
Focusingontheinterestsofthecustomerissomethingforwhichawealthofexperienceisalreadyinplacewhichcanbeexploited.Thereisresearchintotechnologyandrisk.Thereisalsoanexchangeofexperiencesbetweencompanieswithcorporateforesightactivities.Theareasofpolicy-makingandadministrationalsoneedtobuildupforesightcompetence.Therearealreadysomebeginningsinthefieldofregionalforesight.Itisrecommendedthattheybefurtherexpanded.
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Innovative power of social consensusAninnovationstrategybasedonvaluecreationdependscruciallyonwhethersocietyacceptsthesolutionsthatareaspiredto.Acceptancedoesnotfallfromtheskies.Itrestsonexperienceandthereforehastobeconvincinglyimparted.Itistheresultoftheinteractionofvariousgroupsandtheirdemands.Therespectivepositionsshouldbemadetransparentandadvantagesopenlyaddressed.Thepublicdoesnotlikethefeelingthattheyarebeingmadeuseofinamannercountertotheirowninterests.
ThestatusquointheframingofgoalsinresearchandinnovationpolicyinGermanyrevealsanasymmetricpicture.Traditionallythefocusesaredecidedbyindustry,scienceandpolicymakers,basedonexpertopinionsandeconomicallydetermined.Ontheotherhand,therearesocialissuesaffectinghumanexistenceandhowpeoplelivetogether.Asscienceprogresses,theseissuestakeonaddedimpor-tancewhennewtechnologiesaffectbasicquestionsofhumanexistence,suchasinnanotechnology,biotechnology,geneticengi-neeringandinformationandcommunicationsciences.
Althoughbothsidesbelongtogether,thedebateoftentakesplaceinseparateforums,notleastforreasonsoftime.Itisthereforerecom-mendedthatfundamentaldecisionsoninnovationstrategybediscussedatanearlystageandkeypointsbeidentifiedforasocialconsensusthatisasbroadaspossible.Thepriorconditionsmustbecreatedbythoseinpolitics,scienceandindustry.Theseincludenewparticipationproceduresandamuchimprovedcommunicationofsciencewiththehelpofeducationalinstitutionsandmedia.
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Innovation with cultureGermansarenothostiletoinnovation.Thisisdemonstratedbythespreadoftheinternetandmobileenddeviceswithouttherehavingbeenaneedforadiscussiononacceptance.Thiswasbecausetheculturalandeconomicadvantageswereobvious.Inthiswaywork,communicationandinteractionwererevolutionisedinashortspaceoftime.Innovationthatistoachievelastingsuccessrequiresacertaincultureanditispreciselythisthatneedstobedeveloped.
Theformationofaninnovationcultureisalong-termprocessandtheplayersinitareassigneddifferentroles.Thepoliticianscreatetheoverallframework,thescientistsfaceuptodiscussionsandthebusinesscommunityopensupanddevelopsuser-friendlysolutions.
Itisrecommendedthatinfutureallgoalsandprogrammesofinnova-tionpolicyshouldmakeaclearcontributiontofosteringacultureofinnovation.Thecorrespondingindicatorsshouldbedevelopedandmaintainedonapracticalbasis.Thecriteriaincludetransparency,participation,needanduserorientation,newpatternsofcompetition,reliableframeworkconditionsandtheabilitytolearninprojects.
Growth, prosperity and sustainabilityTheissueofsustainabilityhaslongsinceprogressedbeyondthesphereofenvironmentalpolicy.Ithasnowbecomeacentralcompo-nentofresearchandtechnologypolicyandatthesametimeataskforalldepartments.Thissuccesscanonlybeexplainedbythefactthattheplayersconcernedalllinkthetopicwithanalternativelogicofeconomicoperationswhichpromisestoguaranteelivelihoods.Whethertheclassicgrowthparameterscomprehensivelyrepresentthegoodofsocietyiscalledintoquestion.Thesettingupofthecommissionofenquiry“Growth,prosperity,qualityoflife–waystosustainableeconomicactivityandsocialprogressinthesocialmarketeconomy”shouldbeseenagainstthisbackground.
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Sofarthecompositionofthecommissionofinquiryrevealscleardistancingfrommembersofthebusinesscommunity.ThefederalgovernmentisthereforerecommendedtoincluderepresentativesofbusinessandtheBDIintheworkofthecommission.TheBDIisrecommendedtodrawupitsownproposalsonthequestionwhetherahighlydevelopedsocietylikeGermanycanmeasureitssuccesssimplybyquantitativegrowthparametersalone.Thethreedimensionsofsustainability–economy,ecology,society–areindispensable.
Sustainability as a success factorManyenterprisesachievesubstantialgrowthratesingreenmarkets.Theshareofvaluecreationandthenumberofjobsinthisareaaresteadilyincreasing.Nevertheless,inmanyenterprisessustainabilityhassofarbeenunderstoodasasupplementarytask.
Itisrecommendedthatenterprisesshouldcomprehensivelyintegrateandimplementsustainabilityintheirinnovationandstrategyproc-esses.Examplesofhowthiscanbedoneareclearself-setobjectivesandmonitoringimplementationbyindicators(keysustainabilityperformanceindicators).
Sustainablefuturemarketsofrestrictedtotheareasofenergyandmobility.Infacttheyextendtoallareasofindustrialproduction.Anintegratedandholisticviewisthekeytoeconomicadvantages.Whatispositiveisthatwithsustainableproductsandsolutionsthequestionofacceptancedoesnotarise.
6.FutureperspectivesforvaluecreationinGermany
Technology development and viability for the futureGlobalmegatrendsshapethemarketsofthe21stcentury:demo-graphicchange,urbanisation,scarcityofresourcesandclimatechange.Theanswer,ifthereisone,tosuchcomplexissuesliesinsystemssolutions.Sotechnologicalcompetencecontinuestobedemanded,competitionininnovationandqualitybecomesmoreimportant.CompetitionthroughpriceundercuttingisnotapromisingstrategyforGermanyinanycasesinceinmanycasesitwouldmeanalossinvaluecreationandincome.Onthewhole,conditionsforGermanindustrytocontinueonasuccessfulpathofgrowthremaingood.
However,intheemergingcountriesseriouscompetitioninthefieldofscienceandtechnologyisgainingstrength.
Furthermore,radicaltechnologicalchangeisconfrontingclassicmanufacturingindustrywithnewchallenges.Theresponseliesinflexibleframeworkconditionsintheareasofeducation,thelabourmarketandmobility.However,thataloneisnotsufficient.Germanymustretainitsabilitytodevelopcentralfuturetechnologies,toconvertthemintosolutionstailoredtomeetneedsandtomakethemmarket-ablebyaccompanyingservicesandbusinessmodels.
Acentralroleinallareasoftechnologicalprogressisplayedbytheprocessingofinformationandknowledge.Italsohelpstheintegrationofvariouscomponentsintothesystemssolutionsalreadymentioned.Personalisedmedicineorthe“InternetofThings”areexamples.Thedemandsmadeonthemanagementofcomplexityincreasesubstan-tially.Itisthereforerecommendedthatinscienceandpolicy-makingthereshouldbeastrongeremphasisonsystemsinnovationsasthesubjectofinterdisciplinaryresearchpromotion,withthefocusonaholisticinnovationapproach.
100list of all figures
Page FIgure
11 Fig1:Valuecreationandemploymenteffects
12 Fig2:Projectdesign
15 Fig3:Disruptionanalysis
17 Fig4:DisruptionsandtheirimpactonvaluecreationinGermany
19 Fig5:Currenttrendsinvaluecreation
27 Fig6:Listofdisruptions
29 Fig7:Disruptionsinthemobilityareaofactivity
39 Fig8:Disruptionsintheclimateandenergyareaofactivity
45 Fig9:Disruptionsinthehealthandnutritionareaofactivity
53 Fig10:Disruptionsinthecommunicationsareaofactivity
61 Fig11:Disruptionsinthesecurityareaofactivity
65 Fig12:Disruptionsintheareaofsuper-ordinateframeworkconditions
|101Listofallfigures 100
legend
+ Positiveeffectsonemploymentorvaluecreation
- Negativeeffectsonemploymentorvaluecreation
+/- Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancepracticallycanceleachotherout
-/+ Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancepracticallycanceleachotherout
+/(-) Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearepositive
(+)/- Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearenegative
-/(+) Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearenegative
(-)/+ Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearepositive
102glossary
Thoseactingsociallyaredescribedasactors.Thereisadistinctionbetweenindividualactors(persons)andcollectiveactors(organisa-tions,enterprises,states).Theyhaveincommonthattheycanbecontacted,i.e.areavailableforcommunication.Relevanteconomicactorsaredescribedasstakeholders.
Inbusinessstudiestheconceptofthestrategicactorisusedinconnectionwiththemodellingofbusinessprocesses.Thetaskistoexplorewhichactorhasaninfluenceonabusinessproject.
SchreyöggG.(1999):StrategischesManagement–Entwicklungs-tendenzenundZukunftsperspektiven.In:DieUnternehmung.Jg.53(1999)Heft6
Clusteringmeansthegroupingorjoiningoffeaturesand/orvariablesonaccountofsimilarity
Raithel(2008):QuantitativeForschung:EinPraxiskurs.Wiesbaden
Changesoftenhaveadisruptivecharacter.Theimpactofdisruptionsisconsiderable.Disruptionsresultfrombreaksintrendsorfromplausibleprolongationsofexistingtrends–bothwithprofoundeffectsonthestructureofvaluecreationinGermany.Externalshockscanalsoimpactaswellasarrivalattippingpoints.Inthebusinessworldweoftenexperiencesuchbreaksintheformofnon-lineardevelop-ments.Whetherdisruptionswillactuallyoccurisnotcertain.However,iftheyaretakenseriously,theyopeneyesforpossiblefundamentalsocialupheavalswithfar-reachingconsequencesforvaluecreation.Thisgivesrisetoopportunitiesandrisks.
Actor
Clustering
Disruption
|103Glossary 102
Theoverallconceptofforesightmeansanextensivesetofmethodsandanalyticalinstrumentsofresearchintothefuture.Aknowledge-basedandinterdisciplinaryprocedureiscommontothemall.Thelengthoftimewithwhichforesightconcernsitselfwithcanrangefromafewyearstoseveraldecades.Thevarietyofperspectivesmakesforesightespeciallyrelevantforcorporatestrategyplanning.
Burmeister,K./Neef,A./Beyers,B.(2004):CorporateForesight.UnternehmengestaltenZukunft.Hamburg.
Afeaturethatpointstoasuper-ordinatedevelopment.
Inempiricalresearchanindicatordescribesalimitedsampletakenfromaquantityofempiricallyverifiabledatawiththehelpofwhichgeneralisingstatementscanbemade.Inindustryindicatorsareunderstoodaspointerstothedevelopmentoftheeconomyortheeconomicsituationingeneral.Example:fallingpurchasingpowerasanindicatorofaneconomiccrisis.
Koch,J.(2004):Marktforschung.(4thimpression).Munich
Informatisationisaprocessofgeneratingandusinginformationinordertobeabletoproducefurtherinformation.Theessenceofinformatisationliesintranslatinginformationintoamaterialobjectofcooperativehumanactivity,forexampleintoavehicle.Theconceptismostlyusedwithamorespecialmeaning:thepenetrationofalllifeareasofsocietybyinformationandcommunicationstechnology,especiallythecomputerandtheinternet.
Foresight (a look into the future)
Indicator
Informatisation
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Thepracticalapplicationofanideatosolveproblemsisdescribedasinnovation.Inindustrythereisadistinctionbetweenthreebasicforms:themanufactureofnewproductsorproductswithclearlyimprovedproperties(productinnovation),achangeinproceduresformakingaproduct(productionorprocessinnovation),andanewwayoforganisingproductionandsales(organisationalinnovation).Innovationscanmeetwithsuccessinthemarketbutcanalsobefailures.
Corporateidentitydescribesalong-term,strategicframingofcorpo-rateobjectivesanddefineshowthegoalsaretobemet.Asapartofcorporateidentitytheenterpriseassessmentmostlyaimsatachievingaconsensusonvaluesbetweenthemanagementandemployees,atstrengtheningthefeelingoftogethernessandalsoprovidingpractica-bleandconsensualrulesincaseofcrisis.
Corporateidentityassessmentseekstodevelopmentacorrespondingcorporatemodelthatisviableforthefutureandtoadjustittospecificneeds.
KiesslingW./BabelF.(2007):CorporateIdentity–Strategienach-haltigerUnternehmingsführung.(3rdimpression).Augsburg
Modellingaimsata(simplified)imageofrealityinordertocaptureessentialmodesofactionandthecausalityofrealprocesses.Model-lingisdistinguishedfromsimulationinthatitremainsofapurelytheoretical/hypotheticalnatureandisnotreproducedexperimentally/virtually.Economicmodelsdescribepresuppositions(apriori)ofeconomicstructuresandprocesses,suchastheinfluenceofindi-vidualbehaviouronmarketdevelopments.
Kirchgässer,G.(2008):Homooeconomicus:DasökonomischeModellindividuellenVerhaltensundsineAnwendungindenWirt-schafts-undSozialwissenschaften.Tübingen
Innovation
Corporate identity
Modelling
|105104Glossary
Non-governmentorganisation
Generalpatternsinthechangeinvaluecreationseenfromanoverallperspectivetranscendingindividualbranchesofindustryorenter-prises.Theseincludeatrendtothedissolutionofseparatebranches,sustainableinnovationasaleverofvaluecreationandanecessityforcontrollingcomplexity.Ingeneraltheparadigmshiftsinvaluecreationdemonstratethatcircumstancesdonotbecomesimplerbutmorecomplicated.Volatilityincreases.
Adefiningpropertyorfeature.Aparametercanbeadefinedvariablewhichhelpstoidentifyanddescribeprocessesanddevelopments.Expandeddefinitionsdescribeparameterpropertieswhicharesituatedoutsidetheobjectunderobservation,whichiswhythetermcanbeusedsynonymouslywithinfluencingfactor.
Bossel,H.(2004)Systeme,Dynamik,Simulation:Modellbildung,Analyse,undSimulationkomplexerSysteme.Norderstedt
Thistermoriginatingfromthefinancialsectordescribesthesumofproducts,servicesandbrandssuppliedbyabusinessenterprise.Instrategicmanagementportfolioservesasananalysiscriterionfordeterminingthemarketpositionofanenterprise.Thegoalinthecreationofasuitableportfolioisthebalancebetweendiversityandconcentrationoncorecompetences.
Jung,H.(2006):AllgemeineBetriebswirtschaftslehre(10thimpres-sion).Munich
NGO
Paradigm shift in value creation
Parameter
Portfolio
106
Trendorcomplexoftrendsthatdeterminesorcharacterisesafieldanditsfuturedevelopment.Itisofnoaccountwhetherthekeyfactordeterminesthefieldasacause(e.g.asexternalinfluencingfactors)orwhetheritdescribesitscentraleffects.Theconceptofthekeyfactorisanattempttomakeasassessmentorjudgementfromamongthevarietyofinfluencingfactors(trendsandalsoactionoptionsofimportantactors)inordertoreducethecomplexityoftheproblemtoamanageablelevel.
Weaksignalsisatermfordevelopmentsortrendswhichappearonlyslightatthetimetheyarediscoveredbutwhichhavethepotentialtobecomekeyfactorsinthefutureoforganisationandenterprises.Consequently,weaksignalsharbourthedangerthattheycaneasilybeoverlookedorunderestimated.Forexample,atthestartoftheinternetagemanyinthebusinesscommunityconsideredwwwtobeatemporarytechnologicalgimmickofnoeconomicimportance.
Röttger,U.(2001):IssuesManagement.In:Nolting,T./Thießen,A.(ed.):KrisenmanagementinderMediengesellschaft.Wiesbaden.
Stakeholdersaregroupswithvestedinterestswhohaveadirectorindirectconnectionwithanenterpriseorventure.Incontrasttotheshareholderapproachwhichconcentratesontheinterestsofthoseholdingequity,thestakeholderapproachaimsatabalancebetweentheinterestsofvariousrelevantstatusgroups.Theseincludeinternalstakeholders(staff,managers,proprietors)andexternalstakeholders(customers,suppliers,investors,state,society).
Ulrich,P.(1999):WasistguteUnternehmensführung?ZurnormativeDimensionderShareholder-Stakeholder-Debatte.In:Kumar,B.N./Osterloh,M./SchreyöggG.(ed.):UnternehmensethikunddieTransformationdesWettbewerbes:Shareholder-Value–Globalisierung–Hyperwettbewerb,Suttgart.
Key factor
Weak signal
Stakeholder
|107106Glossary
Targetedandplannedthoughtandactionbasedonthelongterm.Strategiesaimtostabiliseexpectationsinviewofanunknownfuture.Strategiesenableorfacilitatedecisionsinuncertainconditions.Thetermoriginatesfromthemilitarysphereandiscloselyrelatedtotheterm‘tactics’.Inindustrystrategyisunderstoodasmeaningfulsequencingoftheoperationsofanenterprisewiththeaimofsecuringalastingcompetitiveadvantage.
Lühmann,N.(2006):OrganisationundEntscheidung.Wiesbaden
PorterM.E.(1999):WettbewerbundStrategie.FrankfurtamMain.
Scenariosareconsistentandplausiblealternativeimagesofthefuture.Incontrasttoforecasts,scenariosarehypothetical.Itisuncertainwhichofthepossibilities,whichdetailedaspectsofthescenarioswillactuallyoccur.Takentogether,scenariosillustratethemostsignificantdrivingforceswhichfuturedevelopmentsdependon,provideanoverviewoflinkedeffectsanddescribepossibleconse-quences.
Thetermdescribesagradual,sustainedandgenerallycontinuousdevelopment–incontrasttocyclicalswings,erraticfluctuationsorthearrivalofsomethingessentiallynew.Trendscanbedistinguishedfromshort-termfashionsbyhavingasustainedeffectoverseveralyears.Moreover,theyarerobust,donotchangeabruptlyandcontinueinthesamedirection.Trendshaveacorrespondinglastingeffectonconcretelivingconditionsandthusfulfiltheconditionstobetakenasapointofapproachforthestrategicplanningofenterprises.
Müllert,A./Müller-StewensG.(2009):StrategicForesight:Trend-undZukunftsforschunginUntenehmen–Instrumente,Prozesse,Fallstu-dien.Stuttgart.
Strategy
Scenarios
Trend
Cycleisatermforthetemporary,periodicdeclineandincreaseincertainobservablephenomena.Cyclesaremarkedbyregularity,demonstratecontinuityandarethussuitableformakingforecasts.Oneexampleoftheapplicationofcyclicalthinkinginthefieldofeconomicsareso-calledeconomiccycles,whichproceedsontheassumptionthateconomicperformancerunsincyclesdependingonparadigmsandtechnologicaldevelopments,wherebylongerandshortercyclesoverlap.
Raudenbush(2005):HowDoWeStudyWhatHappensnext.Thou-sandOaks/Chicago.
Cycles
Imprint 110
Published by BDI–FederationofGermanIndustrieswww.BDI.eu
Z_punktGmbHTheForesightCompanywww.z-punkt.de
Project teamBDI working group Innovation Strategies Geared to Value Creation
DirectorDr.ReinholdAchatz(SiemensAG)
Members of working groupDr.StefanBerndes(BDLIe.V.)Dr.ArnevonBonin(BayerAG)Dr.KlausEbert(BoehringerIngelheimGmbH)Dr.KlausGriesar(MerckKGaA)Dr.ChristianHahner(DaimlerAG)AndreKaffenberger(SüdzuckerAG)Dr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.VolkerMeyer-Guckel(StifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.)Dr.MarkusMüller-Neumann(BASFSE)WolfgangMüller-Pietralla(VolkswagenAG)Dr.DianeRobers(PwCAG)Dr.FriedrichSchulte(RWEAG)Dr.TjarkSiefkes(BombardierTransportationGmbH)Dr.JohannesStuhlberger(EADSDeutschlandGmbH)StephanZiegler(BITKOMe.V.)
Editorial team mobilityDr.StefanBerndes(BDLIe.V.)Dr.ChristianHahner(DaimlerAG)WolfgangMüller-Pietralla(VolkswagenAG)Dr.TjarkSiefkes(BombardierTransportationGmbH)
Editorial team climate and energyDr.KlausGriesar(MerckKGaA)Dr.MarkusMüller-Neumann(BASFSE)Dr.FriedrichSchulte(RWEAG)
Editorial team health and nutritionDr.ArnevonBonin(BayerAG)Dr.KlausEbert(BoehringerIngelheimGmbH)AndreKaffenberger(SüdzuckerAG)Dr.Dr.ReinhardLöser(BDIe.V.)CoraOrlamünder(BDIe.V.)
Editorial team communicationsDr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.MichaelLittger(BDIe.V.)Prof.Dr.HartmutRaffler(SiemensAG)StephanZiegler(BITKOMe.V.)
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Editorial team securityRichardArning(EADSDeutschlandGmbH)FelixEsser(BDIe.V.)Dr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.JohannesStuhlberger(EADSDeutchlandGmbH)Dr.MilosSvoboda(SiemensAG)
Editorial team super-ordinate framework conditionsDr.VolkerMeyer-Guckel(StifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.)Dr.DianeRobers(PwCAG)
Project team BDIDr.HeinrichHöferDr.CarstenWehmeyer
Project team Z_punkt GmbHThe Foresight Company KlausBurmeisterHolgerGlocknerDr.KlausHeinzelbeckerKaiJannekCorneliusPatschaSivertvonSaldernMariaSchnurrDr.KarlheinzSteinmüllerBertBeyers
Editorial staff of studyDr.ReinholdAchatzBertBeyersKlausBurmeisterHolgerGlocknerDr.HeinrichHöferDr.CarstenWehmeyer
FundingBASFSEBayerAGBoehringerIngelheimGmbHBombardierTransportationGmbHBoschGmbHDaimlerAGEADSFranceMerckKGaAPwCAGRWEAGSiemensAGStifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.VereinderZuckerwirtschafte.V.VolkswagenAG
DesigngroßgestaltenKommunikationsdesign
BerlinNovember2011
BDI-DrucksacheNo.459Downloadunder:www.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie_engl.htm