German External Relations: Institutions Against Drifting in Global Times

Lecture

Klaus Segbers

Free University of Berlin

March 2003

Content

1 Global Context2 National Context3 Germany‘s Political Agenda4 German Position re. USA

and Iraq5 Lessons from Slipping into

a War

1.1 Global Context (IV glob 1-4)

• Multipolar configuration• Multitude of actors• Relative decline of state

governability • Significant changes re.

sovereignty and territoriality

1.2 Global Context (IV glob 5– 7)

• Medialization of political agendas >>>

• Ad-hocism as predominant mode of politics >>>

• Declining consistency of politics >>>

• Legitimacy gaps

2.1 National Context (IV nat 1-3)

• „Zivilmacht“ (civil power concept)

• Corporatism (politics as bargaining and mediatrion)

• „Handelsstaat“ (trading state)

2.2 National Context (IV nat 4-6)

• Historical Contingencies >>>

• Unification of 1991 >>>

• Normalization and pragmatization of Germany‘s foreign relations

2.3 National Context (IV nat 7- 9)

• Politics of integration

• Politics of institution building

• Social and non-state dimensions

3.1 Causing factors for Germany‘s fp

• Permanent media exposure

• Permanent elections

• Changing coalitions

• Multi-level games

3.2 Topics and interests

Maintaining and developing of effective institutions and regimes

Europe: Stability pactEurope: Enlargement Europe: Institutional reformsEurope: GASP/ CFSPDemographic trends:

regulating migrationsFuture role of U.S.A.:

balancing or inclusion

4.1 Germany‘s foreign policy since September 2002: Background

• Tactical mission: winning elections.

• Excessive statements ...• ...lead to self-constraints of the

governing coalition: parties and society as constraints.

• „Zivilmacht“ by default, not design...

4.2 Constraints on Germany‘s foreign behavior

• Attempts to avoid isolation; cooperation with France and Russia, China

• Non-communication with U.S.A.

• Mutual dependency b/w; pressure and need for domestic reforms and and foreign behavior

4.3 (Past) Options

• (Rather recent) attempts to build a win-position >>>

• ... failed: U.S.A. will act no matter what (costs of non-action too high; corresponds national security strategy/ ideology; geo-economic motivations; group thinking)

5.1 Lessons: Substantial problems with unilateral U.S. Politics toward Iraq

• What is the mission? WMDs? Regime change? Korea?

• Rebuilding Iraq: what commitments are there?

• Consequences for the Near and Middle East – political and social

• Consequences for „Fight against terrorism“

• Oil prices and effects on world markets/ national economies

• Consequences for future behavior of the U.S.A.

5.2 Lessons: Consequences and questions

How to achieve an equilibrium of global asymmetric configurations of actors?

Is it possible to institutionalize the U.S. in a global world?

How to modernize and stabilize the Near and Middle East?

How to control WMD‘s? Can the GASP/ CFSP be re-build,

re-activated? What are relevant macro-

tendencies b/w anarchy; institutionalization; selective stability?

5.3 Lessons from Slipping into another War

Either give the U.S. a wild card, or build and maintain effective institutions

Rethink election cyclesReflect media influence and

modi operandi

The end...

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