Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy

Development

An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic Planning

Plan! Plan! What’s the plan?

Why do we plan?

“Without a vision the people will perish”

“If you don’t know where you are going it is hard to get there”

“The starting point of all achievement is a clear desire.”

“Why are we doing this?

“So you want money to do what?”

Running an organization

If only the world and running our organizations was this simple!

What we expect versus what happens

Where we intended to go

Found something better quicker

Missed it completely

Events pushed us here on the way

The uncontrollable factors in the environment and in our organizations lead to different results

How do we end up somewhere we had no intentions of going?

Political Change

Social Change

Economic Shifts

Environmental Issues

Technological

Change

Demographics

Financial MarketsNew Values

Would you have imagined? All the things we can now do based on the

internet and communications infrastructure? Nelson Mandela’s life story? The tragedy of 9/11? The rise of reality TV? Arnold Schwartzenegger as Governor of

California? People paying $2 for a bottle of water? The rise of China and India?

Can you imagine? What might come from bio-technology and

nano-technology breakthroughs? What the Chinese will do with $1trillion U.S.

dollars they need to spend? Who will immigrate to the U.S. over the next 20

years and the political impacts? The near and long term effects of global climate

change? The shape of the U.S. economy as it emerges

from the 2008-2009 credit crisis?

What is scenario planning?

Creating useful stories about the future of what you are uncertain about

Researching and understanding the drivers of change and using what you learned to create plausible futures

Testing current strategies and creating new ones in the context of possible futures

Learning Forward

The core of scenario thinking Predicting the future accurately and consistently

is a tough task. The more uncertain the factors that are shaping

the future the tougher it is. We are not entirely helpless, we can learn our

way forward and assess options. We can prepare to manage some of the larger

risk and be ready to seize some of the better opportunities.

The key steps of scenario-based strategic planning

1. Get a sense of the problem or decisions2. Ask questions about key uncertainties and

assumptions3. Gather a diverse team of key stakeholders4. Use a good process for creating multiple

scenarios5. Test current strategies, plans, ideas against the

scenarios. Think of new strategies within the context of the scenarios

6. Isolate both robust and contingent steps to take.

Core steps to creating good scenarios1. Get a clear focus question to anchor the scenarios2. Brainstorm the factors and driving forces that might

have influence3. Find a useful model or tool for organizing the key driving

forces into a structure for scenarios (matrix, relational diagrams)

4. Create the stories (logic, time scale, core arguments) using the key drivers and your model

5. Test current strategies within the context of the scenarios. Brainstorm and test new strategies.

6. Prioritize results into robust and contingent categories7. Capture a learning-forward agenda

Contact InformationContacting Gerald Harris:

Email: gerald@artofquantumplanning.com

Or, harrisstrategy@yahoo.com

Phone: 415-350-1531

Address: 6511 Lucas Ave, Suite 8

Oakland, CA 94611

References provided upon request.

Customized assistance with strategic planning to meet the needs of your organization.