Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what

Georgia Environmental Protection Division

Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford:

Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what GA EPD plans to do about it!!

Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan

(Georgia Environmental Protection Division)

Georgia Air Quality SummitAtlanta, GA - May 4, 2006


Policy Development Identify menu of control options

to be considered

Consider regulatory and practical implications along with costs, benefits, & sensitivities

Develop and implement regulations and policies

Air Quality Modeling Meteorology, emissions &

photochemistry for base & future

Sensitivity analysis of responses to various controls

by location and species

Impact (relative reduction factor) of overall strategy

Cost Assessment Evaluate cost-effectiveness ($/ton) of each control option

Benefit Assessment Evaluate health and other benefits of control strategy

Individual measures, overall strategy to model

Sensitivity to controls; Impact & attainment (Y/N)

of overall strategy

Iterative search for additional measures

Control measures

to be evaluated

Estimated $/ton of each measure

Modeled base & controlled pollutant concentrationsMorbidity/mortality

averted, visibility improved, etc. due to control strategy

Integrated Approach to Air Quality Attainment


Non-Attainment in Georgia

Ozone non-attainment areas PM2.5 non-attainment areas

• 8-hour ozone standard (85 ppb): Atlanta, Macon

• Annual PM2.5 standard (15 g/m3): Atlanta, Macon, Floyd county, Chattanooga


Atmospheric Modeling SystemMeteorology (MM5) Emissions (SMOKE)

+

Air Quality (CMAQ)


MM5

Meteorological Observations 3-d model predictions Land use, surface elevation, etc

3-D Meteorological Fields (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, etc)

CMAQ SMOKE

Initial and boundary conditions

Photolysis rates NRM

MOBILE6

TP+

Measured EIEGAS

3-D Pollutant Distributions and 3-D Sensitivities

Modeling System


CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model

Si Si

Riui ui

ui

Ki Ki

Ki

iiiii SRcKcut

c


CMAQ is a “Supermodel”!!

• Need to solve the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation for each species in each grid cell for each time step– (200 * 100 horizontal grid cells) x (19 vertical

layers) x (100 species) x (4 time step/hour) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year)

• IN AN ANNUAL SIMULATION, NEED TO SOLVE OVER 1,330,000,000,000 PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS!!!!


Future year emissions (e.g., 2009)

Air Quality Goals (i.e., attainment status)

Emissions control strategyHealthy Air

Pollutant distributions and sensitivities

Future year (e.g., 2009) emissions with controls

Area not in attainment

Area in attainment

Attainment demonstration and future year modeling

Air Quality Model Both modeling runs use the same meteorological & air quality inputs

Note:Air Quality Model

Pollutant distribution

Model Performance Evaluation

Base year emissions (e.g., 2002)

Base case modeling

Demonstrating attainment using AQ models


Future Emission Projection• Controls and Rules (promulgated as of July 1, 2004):

– Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr SIPs– Combustion Turbine MACT– Gulf Power SCR application– Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard– Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT– Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule– Nonroad Diesel Rule– North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act– NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs– NOx SIP Call (Phase I)– NOx SIP Call (Phase II)– Petroleum Refinery Initiative – RFP 3% Plans where in place for one hour plans– TECO & VEPCO Consent Agreements– Tier 2 Tailpipe– Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs– VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards– Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)


Future Emissions in Georgia

Reductions in NOx and SO2 reductions in ozone and sulfate PM2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

NOx(2002)

NOx(2009)

SO2(2002)

SO2(2009)

VOC(2002)

VOC(2009)

Th

ou

sa

nd

To

ns

Area (VOC)

Point (VOC)

Misc.

Industrial

Other Fuel

EGU

NonRoad

OnRoad


VISTAS 12 km

ALGA 12 km


Attainment Demonstration• Models are used in a relative sense

rather than an absolute sense:

DVFuture = RRF * DVCurrent

– DVCurrent is based on observations

– RRF

Modeled Future Concentration = ---------------------------------------------

Modeled Current Concentration


Reductions in Ozone (2002 2009)

Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022002 Emissions

Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022009 Emissions


Future Ozone Concentrations

Georgia Ozone

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Fu

lton

-0055

Hen

ry-0002

Do

ug

las-0004

Co

bb

-0003

De K

alb-3001

Ro

ckdale-0001

De K

alb-0002

Ham

ilton

-0028

Co

weta-0002

Bib

b-0012

Gw

inn

ett-0002

Ham

ilton

-1011

Pau

ldin

g-0003

Mu

rray-0003

Fayette-0001

Rich

mo

nd

-0091

Daw

son

-0001

Clarke-0002

Mu

scog

ee-1003

Su

mter-1001

Mu

scog

ee-0008

Ham

ilton

-4003

Glyn

n-0006

Ch

attoo

ga-0001

Ch

atham

-0021O

zon

e C

on

c. (

pp

b)

2002

2009

*2009 includes four SCRs at Bowen, two at Wansley, and one at Hammond


Future Ozone Concentrations

*Need ozone “buffer” below 85 ppb (e.g., 3 to 7 ppb in Atlanta) – Marmur et al. (2006)

Georgia Ozone

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Fu

lton

-0055

Hen

ry-0002

Do

ug

las-0004

Co

bb

-0003

De K

alb-3001

Ro

ckdale-0001

De K

alb-0002

Ham

ilton

-0028

Co

weta-0002

Bib

b-0012

Gw

inn

ett-0002

Ham

ilton

-1011

Pau

ldin

g-0003

Mu

rray-0003

Fayette-0001

Rich

mo

nd

-0091

Daw

son

-0001

Clarke-0002

Mu

scog

ee-1003

Su

mter-1001

Mu

scog

ee-0008

Ham

ilton

-4003

Glyn

n-0006

Ch

attoo

ga-0001

Ch

atham

-0021O

zon

e C

on

c. (

pp

b)

2002

2009


*2009 includes 2 scrubbers at Bowen, 1 at Wansley, 1 at Yates, and 4 at Hammond

Future PM2.5 Concentrations

Georgia PM2.5

1011121314151617181920

Fu

lton

-0039

Cla

yto

n-0

091

Fu

lton

-0032

Co

bb

-0003

DeK

alb

-2001

Gw

inn

ett-0

002

DeK

alb

-0002

Cla

rke-0

001

Bib

b-0

007

Flo

yd

-0005

Walk

er-0

002

Wilk

inso

n-0

001

Hall-0

003

Ric

hm

on

d-0

091

Mu

sco

gee-0

011

Mu

sco

gee-0

001

Wash

ing

ton

-0001

Pau

ldin

g-0

003

Do

ug

herty

-0007

Ch

ath

am

-0017

Ch

ath

am

-0091

Bib

b-0

012

Ho

usto

n-0

001

Lo

wn

des-0

003

Gly

nn

-0006

Ham

ilton

-4002

Ru

ssell-0

001

PM

2.5

Co

nc.

(g

/m3 )

2002

2009


Emission Sensitivities


Emission Sensitivities• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (g/m3)

• Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009)• Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009)

• Regional 10% Emission Reductions– Mobile (on-road/non-road) + area + non-EGU– NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon (PC)– Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full

& sub), Floyd County

• Point Emission Reductions – Additional SCRs (NOx) and Scrubbers (SO2) at seven

largest Power Plants in Georgia• 2009 emissions already include 4 SCRs and 2 scrubbers at Plant

Bowen, 2 SCRs and 1 scrubber at Plant Wansley, 1 SCR and 4 scrubbers at Plant Hammond, and 1 scrubber at Plant Yates


Ozone Sensitivity in AtlantaAtlanta_1, GA (13-121-0055) (Summer)

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

NOx_Gro

und

NOx_Poin

t

VOCs

O

3 (

pp

b)

Bio.

Antro.

BCs

MRPO

M-VU

CEN

VISTAS

WV

VA

TN

SC

NC

MS

KY

GA

FL

AL

30% Reductions


NOx & VOCs in Atlanta (Ozone)

10% NOx (38 TPD) 10% VOCs (49 TPD)

June 12, 2009 June 12, 2009


Branch (2 SCRs) Hammond (3 SCRs) McDonough (2 SCRs)

Scherer (4 SCRs) Yates (2 SCRs)

SCR NOx Controls (Ozone)


SCRs at Plant Scherer

Ozone at Confederate Avenue

- 2002 modeled value above 85 ppb - used for RRF calculations

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5/23 5/25 5/27 5/29 5/31 6/2 6/4 6/6 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/14 6/16 6/18 6/20 6/22 6/24

ba

se

, co

ntr

olle

d (

pp

b)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

dif

fere

nc

e (

pp

b)

O3 base O3 controlled O3 difference


Ozone Animations (9:00 pm)

2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer

GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT


Ozone Animations (12:00 am)


GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT




GMT GMT


SensitivityAvg response

(ppb)ppt/TPD

reduction

10% Atlanta NOx (20 counties) 1.36 35.7

10% Atlanta NOx (5 counties) 0.95 41.1

10% Atlanta VOC (20 counties) 0.08 1.5

10% Atlanta VOC (5 counties) 0.07 2.2

2 SCRs at Plant McDonough 0.42 60.4

4 SCRs at Plant Scherer 0.41 13.7

2 SCRs at Plant Branch 0.07 4.6

3 SCRs at Plant Hammond 0.03 2.2

2 SCRs at Plant Yates 0.11 9.9

Ozone at Confederate Avenue


Atlanta, GA (131210039) Annual-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

SO2_EGU

SO2_nonEGU

NOx_Gro

und

NOx_Poin

tNH3

VOCs

PC_Gro

und

PC_Poin

t

PC_Fire

s

P

M2

.5 (

g/m

3)

Bio.

Antro.

BCs

MRPO

M-VU

CEN

VISTAS

WV

VA

TN

SC

NC

MS

KY

GA

FL

AL

Fire Station #8 - Annual

30% Reductions


Scrubber SO2 Controls (PM2.5) Bowen (2 Scrubbers)

Branch (4 Scrubbers)

Hammond (4 Scrubbers)

McDonough (2 Scrubbers)

Scherer (4 Scrubbers)

Wansley (1 Scrubbers)

Yates (2 Scrubbers)

10% PC(Atlanta)


PM2.5 at Fire Station #8

Sensitivity Summer (g/m3)

Winter (g/m3)

Annual (g/m3)

Annual (ng/m3/TPD)

10% Atlanta PC 0.19 0.36 0.25 85.7

10% Atlanta SO2 0.02 0.01 0.01 1.9

10% Atlanta NOx 0.03 -0.02 0.00 -0.09

10% Atlanta NH3 0.05 0.07 0.05 10.8

10% Atlanta VOCs 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.11

2 Scrubbers at Bowen 0.19 0.07 0.091 0.50

4 Scrubbers at Branch 0.15 0.03 0.098 0.63

2 Scrubbers at McDonough

0.11 0.07 0.070 1.39

4 Scrubbers at Scherer 0.38 0.04 0.150 0.56

1 Scrubber at Wansley 0.09 0.06 0.044 0.44

2 Scrubbers at Yates 0.05 0.06 0.037 0.71


Health Benefits Modeling


Health Benefits Modeling

• Modeling avoided mortality and morbidity associated with various emissions reduction scenarios– Evaluate and prioritize various attainment

strategy options– Consider air quality management across

multiple pollutants and regions– Improve the net benefits of attainment efforts– Communicate impacts to decision-makers,

stakeholders and public


Benefits Analysis with BenMAP

Modeled (or measured) reductions in

pollutant levels

(and other benefits analysis

software)

Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs


EPA’s Nonroad Diesel Rule


Health Benefits in Atlanta

Health Endpoint 1g/m3 reduction in PM2.5 10 ppb reduction in Ozone

cases prevented million $ cases prevented million $

Acute Bronchitis 243 0.02 - -

Acute Myocard. Infarct. 216 73.8 - -

Acute Resp. Sympt./MRADs

116,890 8.6 44,331 3.0

Chronic Bronchitis 90 23.4 - -

ER Visits, Resp. 145 0.04 24 0.01

Hospital Adm., Cardiov. 34 1.4 - -

Hospital Adm., Resp. 52 0.8 250 2.5

Lower Resp. Symptoms 2,790 0.1 - -

Mortality 114 700 34 198

Work/School Loss Days 20,232 2.8 52,683 4.1

Total - 811 - 207


Future Analyses

• So far, analyzed health benefits based on observations

• Next step is to analyze health-benefits based on modeled emissions reduction scenarios (annual CMAQ simulations as input to BenMAP)

• Ozone– SCRs at McDonough and Scherer– Ground level NOx sources

• PM2.5– Scrubbers at major power plants– Primary carbon sensitivities


Potential Control Measures


Potential NOx Controls• SCRs at Plant McDonough and Plant Scherer • NOx Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT)

– 16 Facilities in 20 County area with a NOx PTE over 100 TPY

• Truck Stop Electrification (TSE)– Example Rule requiring 20% electrification could result in potential 1.1 TPD reduction

in NOx

• Inspection & Maintenance (I&M)– Assessed for 7 new Atlanta Area non-attainment counties

• Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Hall, Newton, Spalding & Walton– NOx Reduction of 3.17 tons per summer day across all 7 counties

• Additional NOx Controls– Mobile on-road and non-road diesel controls– Traffic Management and Mass Transit– Open Burning Restrictions– Extend stationary source controls outside of non-attainment area


Potential PM2.5 Controls

• Coal/Oil Fired Stationary Sources– Electric Generating Units (EGUs) – Subject to CAIR– Non-EGUs – Subject to RACT

• Mobile Diesel Controls– On-road trucks, buses– Off-road construction, agriculture, airports, and

rail/locomotives

• Open Burning• Commercial Meat Cooking


Clean Air Interstate Rule

• Federal Rule for the abatement of the regional transport of ozone and PM2.5 in 28 Eastern states

• Only Electrical Generating Units Subject to Rule

• 70% reduction in SO2 and 60% reduction in NOx when fully implemented (from 2003 levels)

• Cap and Trade program for NOx and SO2 emissions per ton


Links to Cindy Crawford


Similar Health Impacts….

• Shortness of Breath

• Increased Heart Rates

• Even Heart Attacks!!


EPD Control Strategy


Summary• 8-Hour Ozone

– Macon will likely be in attainment in 2009– Need additional emission reductions to show

attainment in Atlanta• Reduction from “Regional” NOx and EGU NOx

• PM2.5– Macon, Floyd county, and Chattanooga will likely

be in attainment in 2009– Need additional emission reductions to show

attainment in Atlanta • Reductions from “Regional” PC (OC+EC)• Reductions from EGU SO2

• Quantify impact from local sources with a dispersion model (ISC or AERMOD)


Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources

4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354

[email protected] 404-362-4851

Contact Information

Documents

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what