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John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
3.17.2015
The New World Centers – The Rise of the City State, Real Estate is King and Queen, Infrastructure the New
Norm, Currency Wars Begin and IMF Gets Caught Off Guard
Presentation by ]É{Ç extÜwÉÇR & A Consultants Owners Rep
Georgetown University MSRE Guest Lecturer 2006 – 2015; Topics Corporate Real Estate, Global Economy, Capital Movements Worldwide and the New Evolving Global Community
2015 – 2016 Majority of Capital Continues to Move to City States – Governments Focus on Infrastructure Funding For New Public DebtAdditions as a Stimulus Strategy , MNCs M & A reaches Record Levels; WGDP Spiked at Year End Due to Lower Oil Prices, Flight toCurrency and Financial Asset Safety continues InFlows into US and UK, Sovereign Debt Hits $55 Trillion passing 51% of all World Debtand will Double by 2020 just to Maintain the Global Economy at 2‐3% Growth creating the new term “Credit Driven Economy”, RealEstate Transactions Pass $1 Trillion approaching pre‐recession numbers with Record Investor Inflows, Currency Wars have Begun andQuantitive Easing is Alive Now derailing De‐Leveraging by Central Banks ……..
Executive Summary 2015 Spring
Master of Professional Studies in Real Estate
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THE NEW WORLD ORDER Organized or the Wild, Wild West
The New Global Community
• The New World Order• $Trillions in the Balance• Billions of People• The Earth & The Environment• Health Care• Housing & Services• Culture Richness & Human Rights• Resources• Knowledge & Creating • Governance
BASED ON REAL LIFE
…….So How Is It Going So Far….???
FACCHINA FOUNDED IN 1989In a Maryland/D.C. Garage
Construction and Development – The Pentagon, Dulles, National Harbor, Corporate, Science & Technology Parks
FacchinaG R O U P O F C O M PA N I E S , L . L . C .
Construction and Development – The Pentagon, Dulles, National Harbor, Corporate, Science & Technology Parks
FacchinaG R O U P O F C O M PA N I E S , L . L . C .
Partners COPTHINES, TURNBERRY..
Paul Facchina who worked for Pirelli Construction Co left at age 42 to start his own firm in his garage. Joined by five others they built a $450 million/yr operations with Legacy Signature Work throughout Washington D.C. and The S.E./Miami area of the United States
S.E. U.S., Florida & Miami
Washington D.C. Metro
www.Facchina.com
IDRC/CoreNet Global AssnA Global Learning Organization
www.corenetglobal.org
• 7000 Corporate Real Estate Executives Worldwide
– Members In 27 Countries on five continents Overseeing 40 Billion sf of facilities worldwide– The Average Corporate member has a minimum of 1.6 Billion USD in Assets with
annual sales exceeding 1 Billion USD per year– Individual Corporate members employed from 5000 to 400,000 workers worldwide and undertake
on average 200 real estate transactions each year– Largest number of TransNational Corporate (TNC/MNC) members - TNCs 69 million employees worldwide– 2006 TNCs reached $31 Trillion USD in Sales Worldwide - 57% of the Worlds’ GDP – 70% of Global
Growth
• CoreNet Global As A CRE Worldwide Think Tank
– Operates full time offices in the United States, Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas. The World Wide Global Offices are headquartered in Atlanta Georgia.
– Manages active Corporate Real Estate Research on five continents and with members in 27 countries working with senior level corporate executives, governments and key universities within each region.
– Provides professional training to senior executives of corporate real estate departments, service industry support firms and not for profit public facilitators of the industry groups.
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
The Creation of A Global CommunityPlanet Earth
Core Foundation Items• Land• Natural Resources• Livability• People• Government• Laws & Regulations
Enabling Infrastructure• Transportation• Food & Shelter• Health & Education• Communication• Financial System• Business Products &
Services
Structures and Society Moving Towards a Global Community As a Tapestry of People, Cultures
and Opportunities Yet To Be Fully Realized
Our Focus
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY EVOLVINGSETTING THE FRAMEWORK IN PLACE
• 1990’s Global Transportation – 24hrs Anywhere FedX UPS• 1990’s Global DOT COMS – Customers Worldwide in 48 Hrs• 1990’s Global Corporations – Begin Transition to MNCs 70% of W Growth• 2000’s Global Financing – Leveraging Cross Borders Value Creation….• 2000’s Global Cities - 21st Century City -Nations – Now 69% World GDP• 2000’s Global Communications - Social Networks – Without Borders• 2020’s Global Governments – Sub Global Regions, GTax, G Regs,
G Currency, G Government….
A NEW WORLD COMMUNITYTHE CURRENT FRONTIER
Handy Curve – Each New Idea Creates Change and Change Brings New Ideas, Some Good and Some Bad
HANDY CURVE
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THE NEW WORLD
By Freedom
By Social Network Interconnect Relationships By DNA – Lines
The Evolving Globe By Population Density
The New GLOBAL World
Order
By Trade Blocks
By Political Region Blocks Post WWII
By Religion
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL COMMUNITY
Source NaturalEarthData.com - Natural Earth is a public domain map dataset for the map in this slide which reflects Global down to the local level. Government Sovereign entities - http://kelsocartography.com/blog/?tag=patterson
7.3 Billion Global Population End 2014ANNUAL CURRENT GROWTH RATE 1.14% per year = 83.22 million gain in 2015
Global Population Clock - http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
World GDP - Nominal: US$77.609 trillion (2014 est.)[1] WGDP by Purchase Power Value: PPP: US$106.998 trillion (2014 est.)[1] GDP per capita Nominal: US$7,178 PPP: US$12,700 (2012 est.)
LINK
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
FUNDING THE WORLD’S ECONOMY IN A RECESSION
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
2014 WORLD GDP REACHES $ 77.609 TRILLION USD WGDP by Purchase Power Value: PPP: US$106.998 trillion - Up $30.83 Trillion From $46.779 Trillion in 2007
World Overall GDP Growth Rate From Recovery High in 2010 now dropping through 2013 -Economist. By 2014 continued slide offset only by lower oil prices impacting developed economies but still averaging down
The Conference Board forecasts the economies of China andIndia will slow from 2014 - 2019 to 2020-2025 (from 5.9 to 3.5percent in China and 4.8 to 3.6 percent in India). Overall,emerging economies’ growth will slow to 3.2 percent on averageduring 2020-2025 from 4.3 percent during 2014-2019.
Next 7 yrs
$25 T Sovereign Debt Ejected in Systems
Annual Growth Rate Minus Inflation - For All Countries (Important)
2015 Projections Incl Inflation
Credit Driven Economy Losing Steam ???
Central Banks (CB)
CB - Est $12.5 TrillionIn Net IssuanceSince 07’
? More QE
WorldwideEU, China, Japan…
IMF Inflation Interactive For Each Country Map
World Bank – Countries Actual growth charts * Not Adjusted for Inflation
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL DEBT REACHES $109 TrillionDebt globally reached $109 trillion ( 4th QT 14’) with Public Sovereign Debt at $55.5 trillion / 51% of All debt Governments added $25 Trillion in Debt since 07’ to pull their economies and Institutions out of recession .
Estimates are that Public debt Doubles by 2020 (5 yrs) to $110 trillion to Maintain the Global Growth Rate at Current 2 – 3 % “Creating the New Term Credit Driven Global Economy”
PUBLIC DEBT
WORLD PUBLIC DEBT CLOCKIndividual Country Current Debt Today http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/
2015Global Public Debt by 2013 Reaches Over 50% of all Global Debt at $50 Trillion and Continued to Grow To $58 Trillion by Late 2014 and is Now Passing $60 trillion in 1st Q of 2015
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Global Financial Assets SnapshotGlobal financial assets, including India's, Projected to be worth $317 trillion
by 2020: McKinsey - Mckinsey Global Institute
Non Securitized Loans Grow $12 Trillion from $50 Trillion (07) to $62 Trillion (14) Post Recession Start;
Public Debt Grows$25 trillion from $ 33 Trillion to $58 Trillion in the same period ;
Central Banks Holdings GrowCentral Banks Use New Tool Quantitive Easing - Not Reflected in Chart but Net Holdings ie Purchases of Gov’t Securities, Non Performing Mortgage Loans, Other Non-Performing assets from corporations estimated at $12.5 Trillion
Stock Market Capitalization from a high of $65 Trillion (07) drops to $34 Trillion (08) then rises back to $69 Trillion (14) Gaining $4.4 trillion in New Value …Largest buyers of Stock were corporation buying back their shares with low cost loans and reserves.
Net Position Since 07’ Debt VS Value Created - Globe added $53 Trillion* in New Debt with $25 trillion in New Public Debt
-0-2010
+ 12 T
+ 5 T
+ 5 T
+ 25 T
+ 4 T.9% Gain/yr
Over 07’
$52 Trillion in New Value (07-14) @ av 3.6 % gain /year However $57 Trillion was In New Debt Stock Market Gained -$4 Trillion in New Value by 14’ - However Public Debt Added $25 Trillion Not Including Central Bank Debt of $12.5 T
+ 0
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Global Financial Assets OwnersGlobal financial assets, including India's, Projected to be worth $317 trillion
by 2020: McKinsey - Mckinsey Global Institute
• Top 500 Global firms Produce 70% of World Trade
• Top 200 Multinational Corporations Account for 28% of WGDP employing just .82% of Global Workforce
• Forbes Top 2000 MNC’s Account for Over 47 % of WGDP Employing Over 90 million Employees W.W.
• Of The Top 100 Economies in the World 48 are Countries and 52 are Corporations China & U.S. Responsible for
Over 50% of the 2014’ World GDP
This year, the Global 2000 companies hail from 62 countries, up from 46 in our inaugural 2003 ranking. In total, they raked in revenues of $38 trillion and profits of $3 trillion, with assets worth $161 trillion and a market value of $44 trillion. All those totals are higher than a year ago, with the largest growth being in market value (up 13% year-over-year). These firms employ 90 million people worldwide….FORBES
Forbes and Financial Times World Largest Company Lists
Forbes Article on Public Companies in Top 100 China Leads
U.S. Owns 42% of Global Equities and
30% of All Financial Assets
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
“The World RECESSION STATUS “Still Not Stabilizing - Moody’s Analytics
2013
2008
Beginning 2014
Moody’s Site for individual
Country Economic Projections
See Update 2014 Here https://ww.economy.com/dismal/map/default.asp
Recovery CHINA &
RUSSIA DOWN, CANADA & U.S.
UP
End of 2014
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THOUGHTS & QUESTIONS
OK LETS SEE WHERE THE PRIVATE
MONEY & THE SOVERIEGN FUNDS ARE GOING
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
FLIGHT FROM RISK
• Capital’s Flight to Deepest Part of the Security Pool – United States, UK, Germany and New Global MegaCity Nation States
• HNWI (High Net worth Individuals), Sovereign Wealth Funds, Equity Funds
– Defend Asset Values– Defend Against Currency Swings and Currency Wars– Manage Sovereign Debt Impacts– Leverage Population Move to MegaCities and MegaCities as Global Players– Align To Multinational Corporations Centralized Investments– Separate of Movement to Acquire Global Natural Resource Plays ie Africa, Brazil,
Australia, Canada,
GLOBAL MEGACITIES
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
COST OF DOING BUSINESS – THE RISKSAnnual Rate of Growth Declines To Under 1.3% After Inflation
Country Currency Fluctuations & Exchange Rates Impacts Increase
World GDP Projected Growth rates Including Inflation 2013 – 2020 Interactive Maps & charts For Individual CountriesWorld Bank – Countries with Actual growth charts
$25 T Sovereign Debt Ejected in Systems
Interactive Country Corruption Map – The Hidden Cost of Getting Investment In and Getting Investments Out – Plus Inflation and Currency Exchange Rates
Source: Washington Post
GLOBAL INFLATION RATES … IMP!!
14’ 2.6%, 15’ Est 2.5%, 16’ 2.4%. 17’ 2.7%
IMF Inflation Interactive For Each Country Map
2014 Currency Fluctuation Against USD
USD Currency Rate Charts Against Other Currency
Annual Growth Rate Minus Inflation - For All Countries (Important)
CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS - A strongdollar would reduce payments, but if thegreenback fell against the euro, paymentscould be much, much higher than planned for.Solution? Computing the annual cost andsetting aside enough cash in a euro -denominated bank account to cover at leastthree to five years of expenses. A speculatorin foreign real estate faces other risks.because property is hard to sell quickly, it hasa different risk profile
TRANSPARENCY
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
CAPITAL FLOWSFDI VS OVERALL R.E. INVESTMENTS
FDI is Cross Borders Investments Traditionallydriven (80%) by Corporate investments. Can bein facilities and/or M & A
$1.6 Trillion (14’)
From 2003 to 2009, FDI enjoyed year-on-yeargrowth until suffering the effects of the globalfinancial crisis. A slight recovery led to a peak inglobal FDI in 2011, but this has been followed by aperiod of stagnation and slight decline. During thistime, more than one-third of global FDI went to the130 locations analysed for fDi’s Global Cities of theFuture 2014/15 ranking, which pitted regional FDIgiants against each other JJL
Singapore’s software success Of the 130 locationsanalyzed, Singapore reigned supreme as fDi’sGlobal City of the Future for 2014/15. According togreenfield FDI monitor fDi Markets, between 2008and 2013 Singapore was the number one destinationfor FDI projects, with almost 2000 recorded. Therewas year-onyear growth in the software and ITsector between 2009 and 2013, with investmentprojects increasing on average 16% annually. Anattractive investment location, Singapore ranked firstfor both Economic Potential and BusinessFriendliness. The city, which enjoys low rates ofunemployment and inf lation, recorded the highestGDP per capita of all Asian cities in the study.
Global Cities Index reflects totalR.E. investment volumes, size andother factors.
R.E. > $1 Trillion (14’)
Records have been broken in theglobal capital markets over the pastyear. Asia Pacific volumes hit a newhigh in 2014 following a very strongfinal quarter; in the Americas theywere also at near-record levels; andan exceptional Q4 in Europepropelled full-year totals well beyondexpectations. The largest singlequarter that JLL has recorded,pushed full-year 2014 globalinvestment volumes to US$710billion, a 20% increase on 2013 – JLL…Note New Shifts in 2015 AlreadyJJR
Example of Asian Focus Investing in Other Countries
R.E. Total Transactions Approach 07’ Peak by Close of
2014 - BUT
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Capital markets break new records - Records have been broken inthe global capital markets over the past year. Asia Pacific volumes hit a newhigh in 2014 following a very strong final quarter; in the Americas they werealso at near-record levels; and an exceptional Q4 in Europe propelled full-yeartotals well beyond expectations. The largest single quarter that JLL hasrecorded, pushed full-year 2014 global investment volumes to US$710 billion, a20% increase on 2013. - See more at: GLOBAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE
2015 SEEING $1.33 TRILLION IN NEW TRANSACTIONSEXPECTED….2013 R.E. Volume record exceeds US$500 billion with 2014which added another 28% in Growth. 2015 will see transaction pass 2007levels pre recession. Increasing equity allocations and improved debt marketshelp to drive volume growth The second quarter of 2014 has maintained themomentum seen in Q1, underpinned by increasing equity allocations andimproving debt markets. First half 2014 volumes were 28% higher than H12013 at US$297 billion. Over the last five years we have seen an improvementin transactional activity globally, but now the markets are diverging; theAmericas and EMEA continue to grow, while Asia Pacific has, so far in 2014,struggled to keep pace with 2013 activity, although a strong second half isanticipated.
As business and political leaders convene to discuss global challenges at theWorld Economic Forum annual meeting there was a greater appreciation forthe importance of real estate in reshaping cities and, therefore, the world'scommercial geography. According to research by Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL), with real estate investment levels reaching a new high of an estimated tendollars chasing each dollar of prime assets, real estate is no longer considereda consequence of city success, but is now actively employed to drive it.
A look at the 30 cities worldwide where 50 percent of the US$4.6 trillion indirect commercial real estate investments has been concentrated over the pastdecade highlights real estate's impact on the strength of super and primarycities and the growth of second-tier cities. Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) 2014Reportshttp://www.jll.com/gmp/market-perspective/investment
The Focus of R.E. Capital – 2012/2015
2014
http://www.jll.com/research/136/jll-city-momentum-index-2015
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL CITIESNew City Nations BY MULTIPLE FACTORS
London retains its place at the top of the comprehensive ranking from last year andfurther increases its score to widen the gap with New York at No. 2. Tokyo stays atNo. 4 place this year in the comprehensive ranking, but jumps from No. 8 to No. 6 inCultural Interaction, hitherto an area of weakness for the city. This is mainly due to aconsiderable increase in the number of tourists visiting Japan in 2013. In thecomprehensive ranking, high-ranking cities, Singapore at No. 5 and Seoul at No. 6,both continue to increase their scores this year and close the gap on Tokyo at No. 4.In the “GPCI+” ranking, which emphasizes the “intangible values” (elements thatappeal to human senses) of cities, Tokyo comes in at No. 3 in the comprehensiveranking. This can be attributed to Tokyo’s high scores for the Sense of Safety inPublic Places, Kindness of Residents, On-Time Performance of International Airportand Ease of Transportation, among others.
Bigger Cities More People Coming
Looking At Multiple City Index
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL CITIESR.E. INVESTMENT 2014 BY VOLUMNE
TOTAL Volume $$$s BY Total Investment Volume $$$s
#1 NYC by Total Volume,
#1 LONDON by % Increase
LINK TO CHARTSKnight Frank
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
R.E. INVESTMENTS SHIFT OVER 3 YEARS2011 – 2014 IN TOP 30 CITIES IMPORTANT
Source: JLW / Knight Frank
NYC
LONDON
TOKYO
LOS ANGELES
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
FDI TOP 25 CITIESBUSINESS, CORPORATE & SWF INVESTMENTS
From 2003 to 2009, FDI enjoyed year-on -year growth until suffering theeffects of the global financial crisis. Aslight recovery led to a peak in globalFDI in 2011, but this has been followedby a period of stagnation and slightdecline. During this time, more thanone-third of global
FDI went to the 130 locations analyzedfor fDi’s Global Cities of the Future2014/15 ranking, which pitted regionalFDI giants against each other.Singapore’s software success Of the130 locations analyzed, Singaporereigned supreme as fDi’s Global City ofthe Future for 2014/15.
According to greenfield FDI monitorfDi Markets, between 2008 and 2013Singapore was the number onedestination for FDI projects, with almost2000 recorded. There was year-on yeargrowth in the software and IT sectorbetween 2009 and 2013, withinvestment projects increasing onaverage 16% annually. An attractiveinvestment location, Singapore rankedfirst for both Economic Potential andBusiness Friendliness. The city, whichenjoys low rates of unemployment andinflation , recorded the highest GDP percapita of all Asian cities in the study.
Tracking Deals – Financial Times FDILinkred In - FDI Iand Economic Development SourceSource: FDI Intelligence
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
EQUITY FUNDS CONTINUES INCREASING 2014 – 2016INVESTMENTS IN REAL ESTATE
2014 – Pensions & REIT Continue To Increase Investments in Real Estate
As of Jan. 31, 2014, there are 204 REITs registered with the Securities and ExchangeCommission in the United States that trade on one of the major stock exchanges —the majority on the New York Stock Exchange. These REITs have a combined equitymarket capitalization of $719 billion. When added to non listed REIT the totaloperating REINT reach 1100 funds. They comprise of 90% Equity REITs and 10%Mortgage REITs. REITs As of June 30, 2014, the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global RealEstate Index included 456 stock exchange-listed real estate companies in 47countries around the globe. Of the $1.2 trillion in equity market capitalizationrepresented in the Developed Markets index, 78 percent/$930 Billion came fromREITs . This was up from $811 Billion Invested in the previous year.
19,000 Real Estate ProfessionalsMIPIM Mood
Overwhelming Bullish 2014 Report
This year alternative investments accountedfor $5.7 trillion in assets under management,as real estate managers take the largestshare and pension funds gobble up most ofthe investment products….Towers Watson &Co (NYSE:TW) and the Financial Times.
Real Estate Reaches $5.7 Trillion UnderManagers Pension Funds Investments
Pension Fund Plans Top 200 http://www.pionline.com/specialreports/plan-sponsors/20120206?view=rankings
http://www.real-estate-resource-centre.com/en/explore/speakers-presentations/mipim2014-wrap-up/
REIT FUNDS - http://www.reit.com/investing/investing-tools/global-fundsREIT FOCUS _ http://www.reit.com/news/topics/market-analysis
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/07/alternative-investments-aum/
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Sovereign Wealth Funds GrowTo $9 Trillion 20% in R.E. WHO ARE THEY
http://www.swfinstitute.org
SWF INVESTMENTSFOCUS 2012 - 2014
2013
2013
sovereign wealth funds allocate more than $180bn to the Real Estate asset class… https://www.preqin.com/docs/newsletters/re/Preqin_RESL_Nov_13_Sovereign_Wealth_Funds.pdf
http://www.swfinstitute.org/tag/real-estate
2014
2015 - 60% of SWF Managers Increasing R.E. Investments
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THOUGHTS & QUESTIONS
WHATS NEW AND BIG ON THE HORIZON
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
HEAVY FOCUS SHIFTS TO INFRASTRUCTRE NEEDS $57 Trillion
Infrastructure How To Fund It - Economisthttp://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21599394-world-needs-more-infrastructure-how-will-it-pay-it-long-and-winding
Look For Public/Private Partnerships with Asset Holdings and Revenue StreamsROI is High Plus secured revenue streams stable over long periods…Traditional Inflation Adjusted revenues as part of projects…Currency fluctuations though still an issue for shorter term investors and Soveriegn Debt repayments can impact risk/reward outcomes
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
THINGS TO WATCH 2015 –2016
• There is Always (3) Economies in play at a real estate location; – The Local economy driven by vacancies, pricing and local supply and demand, – The Regional/Nat’l economy driven by policies, capital flows and competitive growth initiatives, – The Global economy which can create unforeseen waves of growth or loss of growth.
Current R.E. Drivers - Flight To Safety - Capital and People creating momentum in local and regional markets. Growth in key 1st Tier, 2nd Tier and in Some Tier 3 Global Cities.
Watch and Track
• CURRENCY FLUNCTUATIONS and CURRENCY WARS• REAL INFLATION • SOVEREIGN DEBT IMPACTS ON SOCIAL BENEFIT PROGRAMS AND ABILITY TO PAY• TRANSPARENCY - IN & OUT REAL COSTS
In Today’s Global Economy Money can be transferred from one Country to Another and from Project to Projects within minutes if not seconds. This new virtual world can create major shifts in economic and real estate environments that in past decades took a generation to change. Always have an Executable Exit Strategy Plan……..
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Real Estate Is Simple - RightPlay To Your Strengths – Create Value,
Manage risk – Have an Exit Plan
CAPITAL IN
VALUE ADDED
VALUE LOST
CAPITAL Out
YOU
You & Your Investors
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Lets Get Started
Who’s The Risk Management
HeroI’ll Get It
!!!!!
Our EQUITY
Where Do We Invest Our Capital & That of Our Clients !!!!!
You & Your Clients
Sovereign Debt Impacts
Inflation Impacts MNCs Corporate
Impacts
Transparency By
Governments
What Is Our Exit Strategy
CURRENCY FLUCTATION
S
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
• United Nation – World Investment Report - Transnational Corporations & Transnational Investments General UN Library All Reports: http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_Investment_Report.aspx
• International Monetary Fund – World Economic Outlook & Financial Stability ReportsWorldwide Capital, Debt, GDP and Economic Performance http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2014/01/
World Economic Forum - The Global Competitiveness ReportsCompetitiveness of Individual countries - Report on Future Global Financial Systemshttp://www.weforum.org/issues/global-competitiveness
www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/GlobalFinancialSystem/index.htm
• Global Property Guide – Individual Country Current Real Estate Activity and StatisticsLocal RE Activity, Cost of RE Transactions, Values and Projected Trends 1 – 10 yrs Globallywww.globalpropertyguide.com
• Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute TM – SWF Annual Investment Reports, Individual SWFs, Location, Size, Portfolio, Policies and contactswww.swfinstitute.org http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/ http://www.swfinstitute.org/tag/Real-Assets/
• Global Recession and Recovery – Global Wealth Report • https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=60931FDE-A2D2-F568-B041B58C5EA591A4
• McKinsey Report on Global Cities -http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
• CoreNet Global – Annual Corporate Investments and strategies www.corenetglobal.org
• Global Real Estate Investment Funds – http://www.reit.com/investing/investing-tools/global-funds
KEY GLOBAL RESEARCH RESOURCES
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
CONTACT INFORMATION
John ReardonEconomic-Associates
LinkedIn: John Reardonhttps://www.linkedin.com/pub/john-reardon/13/a19/366
1112 Oakridge Dr., Suite 104 # 218Fort Collins, Colorado 80525Tel: 240-320-2415
Academic Personal Contact email:[email protected]/Fort Collins Colorado
Bio:
Facchina Group of Companies – COO Development
Nevada Cabinet Secretary – CEO – State Economic Development Commission
Wyoming Cabinet Secretary – CEO –State Economic Development Council
President/CEO Denver World Trade Center
Global Director/COO – Int’l Development Research Council - CoreNet Global
Colorado State University – Executive MBA Program Director
Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School MSRE Advisory Council/ Guest Lecturer
Georgetown University - MSRE Corporate Real Estate Advisor / Guest Lecturer
Adjunct and Guest Faculty on Global Real Estate and Capital Movements Worldwide
Over 4 decades of Business, Academic and Economic Development Work Throughout the U.S. and the World
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
SUPPLIMENTAL ITEMSYOU MAY FIND OF INTEREST
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL FINANCIAL ASSETSREACH $294 Trillion In 2014 – What They Are
SWF $9 Trillion - The Shadow Wave of Government Capital -The Sovereign Wealth Funds become Players. The First Wave -Strategic Positioning thru cross border investments – Natural Resources – Global Transportation Ports – Global Production –Secured Debt Instruments, Second Wave -Energy/ Commodities and Equities, Third Wave – Real Estate & Infrastructure
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
GLOBAL SOVERIEGN DEBT & DEFAULT RISK
Sovereign Default: Frustrated Judge Scolds Argentina but Does Not Hold It in Contempt - European creditors seek removal of RUFO clause on Defaulted Argentina Sovereign Debt
European investors holding 5.2 billion dollars of restructured Argentine bonds are negotiating the removal of the Rights Upon Future Options (RUFO) clause that the country claims prevents them from negotiating with vulture funds, sources close to the meetings informed today.If an agreement is eventually reached, it would represent a major breakthrough following President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's refusal to pay holdouts that did not accepted the two debt swap alternatives offered in 2005 and 2010.The government argues it can not propose a better option to so called ‘vulture funds’, due the RUFO clause which prevents giving more benefits to bondholders who did not take part in the previous debt swap processes. Latham & Watkins attorney, Christopher Clark, who counsels bondholders, said they are working on a request to eliminate the RUFO clause.
Source NaturalEarthData.com - Natural Earth is a public domain map dataset for the map in this slide which reflects Global down to the local level. Government Sovereign entities - http://kelsocartography.com/blog/?tag=patterson
Bloomberg News : Public Debt Per Person - Total Debt by Country – Debt as % of Country GDP
IMF Power To Forgive Sovereign Debt:. These cases have reawakened interest in an old proposal by the International Monetary Fund for a system of resolving the debts of countries that would be similar to corporate bankruptcy. The fund would oversee the process and another agency would make sure countries and their creditors come to terms that apply to all creditors….NY Times
Thomas Reuters Country Credit Ratings Link
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
20 Most Active Markets Vol (US$bil) $/sf Cap rate 2011 Place
• 1 London Metro $33.31 $1,027 5.40% $43 Bil / 1• 2 NYC Metro $29.95 $555 5.33% $27 Bil/ 3• 3 Tokyo $18.00 $713 4.75% $32 Bil/ 2• 4 Paris $15.76 $728 6.18% $18 Bil/ 5• 5 SF Metro $13.03 $373 5.32% $ 8 Bil/ 13• 6 LA Metro $11.98 $263 6.43% $10 Bil/ 11• 7 Boston $9.40 $353 6.18% $ 6 Bil/ 18• 8 Sydney $8.87 $632 7.86% $ 7 Bil/ 16• 9 DC Metro $8.27 $374 6.07% $13 Bil/ 7• 10 Hong Kong $7.42 $1,280 3.21% $18 Bil/ 4• 11 Chicago $6.95 $225 7.23% $ 7 Bil/ 14• 12 Shanghai $5.60 $651 $10 Bil/ 10• 13 Frankfurt $5.14 $521 $ 5 Bil/ 20• 14 Moscow $4.75 $807 $ 6 Bil/ 19• 15 Seoul $4.64 $448 5.67% $12 Bil/ 12• 16 Houston $4.60 $234 6.81% $ First Time• 17 Melbourne $4.56 $442 7.10% $ 5 Bil/ 21• 18 Stockholm $3.99 $380 5.80% $ 6 Bil/ 17• 19 Munich $3.94 $360 5.42% $ 4 Bil/ 27• 20 Beijing $3.49 $607 $ 8 Bil/ 12
Based on $203.65 Billion in deals valued at $10 mil. or greater reported in contract or closed in past 12 months – REAL Capital Analytics
Real Estate TransactionsReach $944 billion in 2013 up from $500 Billion in 2012
GLOBAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT VOLUMES TO HIT $1.33 TRILLION IN 2014 – Cushman Wakefield
2014 What US $1 Million buys in S.F in Most Expensive City
$268 Bil
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Real Estate Transactions '07 - '14YTD Entire History †
All Real Estate Country Vol # Vol #($ bil) props ($ bil) props
AMERICAS United States $1,444.60 103,610 $3,427.50 235,734Canada $124.10 6,953 $196.20 10,386Brazil $42.50 1,229 $52.00 1,578Mexico $8.20 707 $21.10 1,700Other $16.50 763 $23.90 937
EMEA United Kingdom $384.20 11,774 $906.00 31,496Germany $271.70 13,336 $433.70 26,844France $157.40 6,886 $260.80 10,620Sweden $75.70 5,459 $120.30 8,315Spain $64.20 5,437 $97.70 9,875Netherlands $57.40 4,585 $87.60 6,096Russia $64.80 1,547 $88.90 1,826Mideast $35.00 1,429 $44.60 1,561Africa $13.90 787 $19.60 1,120Other $275.50 11,899 $426.70 17,875
ASIA PAC China $1,217.60 25,498 $1,930.20 40,470Japan $271.20 7,382 $477.40 12,210Australia/NZ $135.90 6,128 $230.00 9,508Singapore $107.60 1,046 $162.10 1,717Hong Kong $118.90 4,684 $167.50 6,185India $44.90 728 $54.10 962Other $152.00 4,095 $221.30 5,821
Globe Total ALL $5,083.80 225,962 $9,449.20 442,836
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
07' - 2014 YTD US Non-US Grand Total
July 29, 2014 Vol # Vol # Vol #Property Type ($ bil) props ($ bil) props ($ bil) props
OFFICE $1,095.60 40,603 $1,738.10 45,033 $2,833.60 85,636DEV SITE $160.90 13,730 $2,242.70 49,354 $2,403.60 63,084RETAIL $594.50 51,472 $1,029.80 48,069 $1,624.30 99,541APARTMENT $817.40 58,125 $315.20 27,625 $1,132.60 85,750INDUSTRIAL $435.60 50,713 $382.00 24,961 $817.60 75,674HOTEL $242.80 12,984 $294.40 10,380 $537.20 23,364SENIORS HSE & CARE $66.00 5,209 $16.20 1,294 $82.20 6,503OTHER $14.90 2,898 $3.40 387 $18.20 3,285
Total $3,427.70 235,734 $6,021.80 207,103 $9,449.30 442,837
Real Estate Transactions
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
Residential Weakens But Commercial Continues to Strengthen – Risk VS Reward
CBRE Global Vision 2014 http://www.cbreglobalinvestors.com/research/publications/Documents/Vision%20Series/Global%20Vision%20H1%202014.pdf The macro-economic backdrop to real estate investment is not without its challenges, but is still more benign than at any time since the Great Recession began…CBRE 2014
http://my.knightfrank.com/research/?regionid=7
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
R.E. Worldwide ROI
John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC
• GDP per capita Nominal: US$7,178 PPP: US$12,700 (2012 est.)