Geopolitical forecast: natural gas 2020

26 March 2014

Conference “The Future of Natural gas”

Summary

In the world the production of conventional gas from new fields will increase sharply, chiefly in sea areas; the shale gas revolution will change the composition and structure of manufacturers and consumers; many new gas pipelines, liquefaction and regasification terminals will facilitate and diversify gas supplies; Iran and Iraq will restore their positions as gas exporters; the influence of the spot market on the price of supplies will increase; the role of Russia and Turkey as actors in the gas market will diminish.

The European Union will attain its strategic goals for energy security: sufficient quantity of gas for the community, extracted locally and imported; diversification of external suppliers; diversity of transportation means; integrated gas infrastructure for the 28 EU states.

In Bulgaria the share of natural gas in the country’s energy consumption will increase considerably as that fuel has much higher efficiency than electricity and is environmentally friendly. That will improve the energy efficiency and competitiveness of Bulgarian economy .

Gas production in the world by countries and regions* In billions of m3

2000 2012 2018 (red) Russia (grey) USA (green) Western Europe (yellow) Caspian region (blue) Other countries

Natural gas production from the Caspian region

* In billions of m3

1200

Natural gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean

* In billions of m3

Natural gas fields in the Back Sea* In billions of m3

Shale gas basins in the world, May 2013

in red – estimated reservesin yellow – localized reserves

New gas pipelines to/in Europe by 2020

LNG re-gasification terminals in Europe

12 under construction19 operating

LNG re-gasification terminals in SEE by 2020

• Revitusa• Aliaga• Marmara-

Ereglisi

• Alexandropulis• Krk • Constanta• Saros• Crete

LNG terminals under construction in USA for export of natural gas

Liquefaction terminals

Bulgaria in “Connected Europe 2020“ Projects of interconnectors between Bulgaria and neighboring countries

Risk Management Laboratory

Thank you for your attention

site: www.riskmanagementlab.com e-mail: riskmlab@nbu.bg