Evening RoundupSeptember 12, 2019

European Central Bank's Interest Rate Decision @ 17:15 IST

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So Far

• Risk sentiments continued its broad recovery momentum on tacking the

trade friction which eased after some positive measures from U.S. and

China ahead of trade talks next month, coupled with hopes of further

stimulus move from European Central Bank later today in its meeting.

Major equity indices across globe stretched its gains. Global commodities

seen on mixed note. While on currency space, dollar index slipped

moderately ahead of ECB policy meet and inflation data from U.S.

• Precious metals gained back after recent rough days, however some signs

of de-escalation of trade tension and risk appetite limited its gains. Both

gold and silver gained around half a percent in London market. Gold spot

seen steady above $1500 an Ounce. While silver spot seen steady above

$18.

• Crude oil prices remained under pressure after a bleak demand outlook

created by OPEC in its forecasting of 2020 oil demand. Meanwhile positive

development in trade war and a significant draw in US inventory failed to

support the prices from correction. Both crude blends, WTI and Brent,

shed around half a percent. Meanwhile, OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial

meeting set to meet today on discuss to any deeper production cut or need

of any adjustments in the ongoing pact.

• Copper and Nickel rallied in LME platform while rest of the peers traded

moderately. U.S. decision to delay tariffs on $250 billion worth Chinese

goods improved sentiments in industrial metal complex. In MCX, base

metals traded on positive turf.

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

LME STOCKRATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold37882 -0.24 37898 37950 37788 37974 8648

Silver 47562 0.13 47430 47789 47290 47500 10952

Crude Oil 3942 -1.62 4019 4024 3938 4007 103584

Natural Gas 180.2 -1.8 182.7 182.7 179.7 183.5 17638

Copper 455.35 1.09 451.9 456.95 451.9 450.45 10654

Nickel 1267.5 0.96 1262 1284.2 1262 1255.4 25840

Lead 154.65 0.26 154.4 154.95 154.4 154.25 1911

Zinc186.9 0.27 187 187.65 186.25 186.4 6262

Aluminium 140.25 0.04 140.1 140.55 140.05 140.2 877

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1501.6 0.29

Silver (c/oz) 18.1847 0.58

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 55.38 -0.66

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.52 -1.25

LME Copper ($/T)5879.5 1.72

LME Nickel ($/T) 18100 1.34

LME Lead ($/T) 2082.5 -0.17

LME Zinc ($/T)2362 0.3

LME Aluminium ($/T) 1817.5 0.06

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 27201.0 0.21

CAC** 5614.4 -0.07

DAX** 12377.8 0.15

Shanghai* 3031.2 0.75

MSCI Asia Pacific index 158.2 0.963

Baltic Dry index 2366 -1.128

Dollar index 98.57 -0.08

Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio79.63 80.58 79.63 88.26 79.34 92.75 79.34

Gold Crude ratio152.82 152.82 146.51 166.88 145.37 166.88 113.57

Lead Zinc ratio0.83 0.84 0.83 0.86 0.80 0.86 0.66

Steel Nickel ratio44.47 45.69 44.38 45.82 36.65 45.82 26.36

Lead Aluminium ratio1.10 1.11 1.10 1.14 1.09 1.15 0.99

79.63 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

152.82 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.83 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

44.47 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel

1.10 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

Net

change

Warrant

change

Tonnage

ratio

Copper-5475 5425 23.82

Aluminium-2375 1775 22.64

Nickel-252 -5466 50.37

Zinc-475 225 36.81

Lead-125 100 8.08

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Forecast Previous

Monday, September 9, 2019

5:20 Japan High GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.30% 1.80%

5:20 Japan High GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.30% 0.70%

14:00 UK Moderate GDP (QoQ) -0.10% -0.20%

14:00 UK Moderate GDP (MoM) 0.00%

19:30 US Moderate CB Employment Trends Index (Aug) 111

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

All Day Holiday India - Moharram

0:30 US Moderate Consumer Credit (Jul) 16.00B 14.60B

7:00 China Very High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.60% 2.80%

7:00 China Very High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.50% 0.40%

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 0.401M

16:30 US Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -3.10%

16:30 US High OPEC Monthly Report

18:00 US Moderate PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.20%

18:00 US Moderate PPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.70% 1.70%

19:30 US Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.20% 0.00%

20:00 US Very High Crude Oil Inventories -2.488M -4.771M

20:00 US Very High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.484M -2.538M

20:00 US Very High Gasoline Inventories -1.523M -2.396M

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Tentative China High Trade Balance (US) 45.06B

14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -1.60%

14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) -1.30% -2.60%

15:30 US Very High OPEC Meeting

17:15 Euro-Zone Very High ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 0.00% 0.00%

17:30 INR Moderate CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.30% 3.15%

17:30 INR High Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 2.30% 2.00%

17:30 INR High Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Jul) 1.20%

18:00 US Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,685K 1,662K

18:00 US High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.80% 1.80%

18:00 US High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.30%

18:00 US Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 219K 217K

18:00 Euro-Zone High ECB President Draghi Speaks

18:00 Euro-Zone Very High ECB Press Conference

20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 82B 84B

Friday, September 13, 2019

All Day Holiday China - Mid-Autumn Festival

10:00 Japan Moderate Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jul) -2.60%

10:00 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 1.30%

14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Trade Balance (Jul) 20.6B

18:00 US High Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.20% 0.70%

18:00 US High Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 3.45%

19:30 US High Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.00%

19:30 US High Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 90.5 89.8

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Oct

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 40220

R2 39700/39980

R1 38680/38900/39490

Turnaround 38300

S1 37670/37400

S2 37120

S3 36870

Technical Commentary

A major price recovery may re-establish only above the Bollinger middle band

level of 38300. Which if remained unbroken may grab prices lower to 37670

then to 37400

Technical Levels

R3 51400/51890

R2 49800/50480

R1 48790/49220

Turnaround 48200-47200

S1 46870/46600

S2 45830

S3 45400

Technical Commentary

Prices expect to trade within the trading range of 48200-47200. A firm move

which breaks either side of the above recommended region could set the

directional move.

SILVER M

MCX Nov

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 4230

R2 4095/4167

R1 3998/4048

Turnaround 3910

S1 3880/3825

S2 3910/3885

S3 3825/3750/3670

Technical Commentary

By breaking the level of 3910 could push prices lower the immediate price

objective of 3880 then to Bollinger lower band level of 3825 region. Inability

to mark trades below 3910 could lift prices higher 3998 then to 4048.

Technical Levels

R3 195.40/205.80

R2 190.90/194.30

R1 183.60/186/189.80

Turnaround 179

S1 176.80//174.60

S2 171.50

S3 170.20

Technical Commentary

Prices have been approaching towards the internal trend line hindrance of

179 region. Which if remained untouched could anticipate a recovery move

towards the upside 183.60 followed by 186.

NICKEL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

COPPER

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 467/471

R2 463.50

R1 461.20

Turnaround 457.80

S1 452.80/449.40

S2 447.30/444.40

S3 442/438.40

Technical Commentary

Sturdy trades above 457.80 may lift prices further to 461.20 or even higher.

Failed to sustain above the Bollinger upper band level of 457.80 may squeeze

down prices lower 452.80 then to 449.40.

Technical Levels

R3 1365

R2 1334

R1 1302/1314

Turnaround 1286

S1 1250/1222/1204

S2 1190/1152/1121

S3 1103/1096

Technical Commentary

Rise above the hindrance of 1286 could boost prices higher towards 1302

firstly then to 1314 region. But there is equal plausible chance of long

liquidation move if prices failed to crack 1286 and such weakening trade

may find support at 1250.

Zinc M

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead M

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 193.20/194.40

R2 192

R1 188.60/190.20

Turnaround 187.70

S1 185.60/183.90

S2 182.30/180.20

S3 178.50/176.80

Technical Levels

R3 160.40

R2 158.40/159.20

R1 156.50/157.20

Turnaround 153.70

S1 152.90/151.30

S2 149.80

S3 148.50

Technical Commentary

Solid trades above the EMA level of 187.70 could lift prices higher. Else hold

the same for a weak bias towards 185.60 then to 183.90.

Technical Commentary

Prices still in a congestion region with lack of directive trades. However

slippage trades below the 153.70 may grab prices lower to Bollinger lower

band level of 152.90 followed by 151.50. Botched effort to win below 153.70

could push prices higher.

Alumini

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 143.50/144.80

R2 142.40

R1 141.60

Turnaround 141.40

S1 139.30/138.60

S2 137.70/134.90

S3 133.40/131.30

Technical Commentary

Determined trades above the sloping trend line resistance of 141.40 could boost

prices higher. Inability to succeed above the same could call a long liquidation

move towards the EMA level of 139.30 region.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I, Krishna prasad N.B, an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the

recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be

further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.

GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,

nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained

within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the

rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the

exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original

publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained

herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.

RISK DISCLOSURE

Geojit Financial Services Limited and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the

analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from

any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment

under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors

should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional

advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial

situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The

user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make

such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the

Commodity/(ies) referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and

income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may

exceed their original capital.

The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is

recommended that an independent investment advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report

constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is

suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of

GFSL.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:

Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited

(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit

Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management

Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of

Insurance and MF Units). In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit Financial

Services Limited affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and we issue research reports /research

analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary

action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities.

In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also

provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:

1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:

GFSL confirms that:

It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity

futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.

Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:

He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,

and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.

2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:

During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from

any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.

3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:

It is affirmed that I, Krishna prasad N.B, employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation

of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the

report.

4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:

Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity

futures.

Copyright in this report vests exclusively with GFSL

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.,34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Toll-Free Number: 1800-425-5501 / 1800-103-5501, Paid Number: 91 - 484 – 2901000

Research Entity SEBI Registration Number: INH200000345

Email id: customercare@geojit.com, Web: www.geojit.com

SEBI Stock Broker Registration No INZ000104737, Research Entity SEBI Reg No: INH200000345, Investment Adviser SEBI Reg No:

INA200002817, Portfolio Manager:INP000003203, SEBI Registration No. Stock Broker: INZ000104737 / Depository Participant: IN-DP-

325-2017, ARN Regn.Nos:0098, IRDA Corporate Agent (Composite) No.: CA0226.