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4/13/16
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GEOG 401 Climate Change
The IPCC
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
FAQ 2. 1, Fi gur e 1
• Scientific body • Intergovernmental
organization of the UN • IPCC is the leading
body for the assessment of climate change
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Founding of IPCC Established in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP)
UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53 6 December 1988
Prepare comprehensive review and recommendations of:
1. The state of knowledge of the science of climate change
à WG1 ß 2. Social and economic impacts of climate change
à WG2 ß 3. Possible response strategies
à WG3 ß 4. Elements for inclusion in a possible future international
convention on climate à UNFCCC ß
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From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer
From Talk by John Houghton, Former Co-Chair of IPCC WG1
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2013 - AR5
UNFCCC
a.k.a. “UNF-Triple C” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
• International treaty signed by 192 countries • Entered into force 21 March 1994 • To consider what can be done to reduce (mitigate) global
warming and cope with (adapt to) inevitable change • Many nations signed an addition to the treaty: the Kyoto
Protocol
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Kyoto Protocol • Text adopted at the 3rd COP session in Kyoto, Japan on 11 December
1997
• Difference between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol: – Convention encouraged countries to stabilize GHG emissions – Protocol commits them to do so
• 84 countries signed the Protocol including the USA • Entered into force on 16 February 2005, 90 days after ratification by at
least 55 parties to the Convention, which accounted for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990
• Ratified by 189 countries. One signatory country has not ratified: USA
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Ratification Status
Ratified by 189 countries. Only one signatory country has not ratified: USA
Green: signed and ratified
Grey: not yet decided
Red: No intention of ratifying
COP21: Paris Agreement
• 32-page document • You can read it on the UNFCCC website: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf • Sets binding limits on emissions • Not yet ratified • Not enough
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Role of IPCC
• First Assessment Report served as the basis for negotiating UNFCCC
• Relationship between IPCC and UNFCCC has continued and serves as a model for interaction between science and policy makers
IPCC’s Keys to Success
• Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive
• Emphasis on scientific integrity, openness, and transparency
• Rigorous review process involving many experts and open to all member governments
• Enthusiasm and cooperation of thousands of experts who serve as authors and reviewers
Source: IPCC. 2004. 16 Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention.
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From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer
Review Process
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From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer
Reaction to IPCC
• Widely praised as a model of scientific collaboration
• Lauded for unprecedented achievement
• Nobel Peace Prize 2007
• IPCC has also been criticized
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Criticisms and Controversies
• Current approach not effective: warnings have attracted attention and the work garnered awards, but has not to led to effective action
• Assessment reports watered down to lowest common denominator: member governments must approve line by line
• Can’t keep pace: explosion of climate research cannot be quickly assimilated under current IPCC procedures
Not Doing Enough
Criticisms and Controversies
• Cherry-picking studies to play down uncertainties: a relatively small group of scientists feel that studies opposing the mainstream view are not given enough weight – Hurricane (typhoon) activity
– Hockey stick graph
Doing Too Much
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Criticisms and Controversies
• Political interference: objectivity has been called into question because of vetting of reports by governments
• Too conservative: reports tend to understate dangers; fail to report on issues of potentially great importance, because of scientific uncertainty
• Reports are immediately outdated: mandate for periodic comprehensive report and the thorough review process delay the release until well after the original research
Approach Flawed
AR5 and Beyond • Refocusing scientific priorities
(See: IPCC. 2009. Chairman’s Vision Paper. AR5 Scoping Meeting, July 2009. http://www.ipcc.ch/scoping_meeting_ar5 /documents/doc02.pdf )
• Continuing march toward improved understanding
• Gradual reduction in uncertainty • Structural changes?
– More focused, expeditious reports? – Report dangers that are still highly uncertain? – Constant updating using Wikipedia-style
system? – More attention to psychology/sociology of risk
response?
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Risk Response
How Are We Doing?
• Kyoto countries are having a hard time meeting commitments
• Emissions and concentrations continue to rise
Fi gur e 2. 3
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IPCC: Evidence of Global Warming is Overwhelming
Yet public perception and political will lag. Why?
Fi gur e 2. 21
FAQ 2. 1, Fi gur e 1
IPCC: Evidence of the Impacts of Global Warming Accumulates
Yet public perception and political will lag. Why?
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IPCC: Future Changes May Be Catastrophic If We Continue On
Present Course
Yet public perception and political will lag. Why?
Why No Significant Response • Science is hard • Powerful interests feel threatened by
possible response strategies; try to confuse issue
• Scientists need to do a better job of explaining complex issues
• Media need to do a better job of informing public and reducing bias in coverage
What Needs To Be Done
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Journalistic Balance • Journalistic fairness requires presentation of
competing points of view
• Works well to check biased reporting of political or social issues
• For scientific reporting, it demands that competing views be presented as though they had equal scientific validity, when they actually do not
• Results in systematic informational bias
See: Jules & Maxwell Boykoff, Journalistic Balance as Global Warming Bias. Fair, http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1978
Concluding Thoughts
• Science will continue to improve understanding
• Uncertainties will remain
• Public must recognize the urgency, but also understand that acting soon will make a difference
• Policy makers must find the will to act, despite uncertainties
• Journalists are key players who need to be knowledgeable about climate change
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Something to Ponder
To what degree should scientists become activists for policy changes to combat global warming?
THANK YOU FOR YOUR COMMITMENT TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND THIS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT PROBLEM