Gwendolyn S Shearer

Genesys Model Enhancements

October 4, 2011

NW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Summary of Model ChangesHourly Loads & WindSlice LogicOperating Year ChangedHydro ShapingBorrowed HydroPurchasesThermal CommitmentTransmission lossesNew Outputs

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Hourly Loads & Wind ChangeChanged to random draws from

temperature years for loads and wind years for wind

Wind is modeled as a nameplate capacity at a site and wind capacity factors by hour

Draws can be random, sequential, or lockstep with water condition

Wind is a load reduction resource

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Hourly Loads

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Dec. 25 Loads 80 Temperature Years

Hour

MW

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Hourly Wind

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Dec. 25 Wind Capacity Factors 3 Historical Years

Series1Series2Series3

Hour

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Slice Logic – Fed OnlyCan now model BPA’s system

separate from rest of PNW because of slice logic

Slice logic mimics BPA’s contractual obligation to Slice customers

User specifies which resources are sliced or not sliced

Amount of generation going to sliced customers calculated

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Hydro Shaping Improved

Look ahead decision-making improved

Day average hydro shaped to meet hourly load improved

Hourly hydro logic improved to better meet load

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Hydro Shaping

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 475000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Hydro Adjustments

ShapeSim Dis

Hour

MW

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Borrowed Hydro OptionBorrowed Hydro is hydro that is

below firm rights and can be used under certain conditions, specified by the user

Measure of when borrowing hydro improved

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Borrowed Hydro

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 159300

9400

9500

9600

9700

9800

9900

10000

Window Hydro Energy Oct 1930

Hyd RegAdj ECC

Window

Mwa

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Purchase OptionsSpot market purchases are

available in all hours specified by the user at a given price

Purchase ahead resources are available looking ahead two days

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Thermal Logic OptionCoal can be modeled as must run

for a day (important for overgeneration spill calculation)

Gwendolyn S Shearer

Possible Future Improvements

Thermal commitment logicTreaty Storage RegulationBetter shaping of hydro within

monthIncorporate LOLP calculation

within model