Genesys

Hydro Shaping & Thermal Logic

Review of Dispatch

• Monthly –> monthly hydro energy

• Window –> hourly hydro dispatch price

• Day –> hydro energy for day shaped into hours

• Hourly -> final hourly dispatch

Day Dispatch• Economic dispatch of thermal and hydro resources

• Output is amount of hydro energy for the day

• Assuming thermal is run flat through the day (with exceptions) the hydro energy is shaped to the hourly load

• Hydro shaping determines hydro amount in each hour

Hourly Dispatch

• Hydro amount for the hour is broken into two parts: hydro minimum @ zero price and rest of hydro @ window marginal hydro price

• Thermal is either must run or completely displaceable

June 22nd 1931 Water

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

HydroThermalLoad CurtailmentWind

December 15th 1931 Water

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

HydroPurchasesThermalLoad CurtailmentWind

“Thermal Cycling”completely displaceable thermal plants can

make hourly individual plant results look

funny

October 20th 1931 WaterHour 1 Hour 2 Hour 3 Hour 4 Hour 5 Hour 6 Hour 7 Hour 8 Hour 9 Hour 10 Hour 11 Hour 12 Hour 13 Hour 14 Hour 15 Hour 16 Hour 17 Hour 18

Centralia 1 184 125 10 157 184 184 192 192 192 192 192 0 0 0 0 0 192 192Centralia 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 192 192 192 192 192 57 0 0 0 72 192 192

LOLP

• Affected by water condition, thermal FOR, wind variation, load variation

• Not affected by thermal commitment

Genesys Conclusions

• Current Hydro / Thermal logic reflects whether we can keep the lights on

• It does not reflect accurate results for individual thermal plants