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Generations
The role of Millennials, GenX, Boomers, The role of Millennials, GenX, Boomers, Silents and Plurals in society and cultureSilents and Plurals in society and culture
Dr. Pete MarkiewiczIndiespace/Lifecourse Associates
Topics
• What are generations?• Cohort effects• Defining generations• Generational models
– Generation Me– GenY– Millennials
• The S&H generational model– Features– Evidence
What are generations?
• Common birth range (cohorts)
• Shared place in history, common experience
• Features cross gender, racial, ethnic lines
• Retain attitudes independently of their biological age
Generations DO NOT define individuals. Rather, they are a public “archetype” referenced by
individuals within the generation.
Life Stage vs. Generation
• Example of “Life Stage” statements“…Kids always rebel”
“…old people are conservative”
• Example of “Generational” statements“…Boomers are re-defining what it means to be old”
“...Youth today are closer to their parents in values and culture than the youth of 30 years ago”
What is generation-dependent?
• Traits depending on cohort/generation– Taste in music, pop culture– Attitudes toward money, debt– Sense of personal/collective destiny
• Traits depending on generation and life stage– Politics– Attitudes to children (the biggest effect is having them)
• Traits depending on life stage– Candy preference – Risk-taking behavior
• None of the above– Expectations for children of immigrants
Cohort effects
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40+
Baby Boomers purchase more music than other generations, even as they grow older
Younger generations were buying less music before Napster
SOURCE: RIAA
Napster
US CD sales by age, 1991-2005
Cohort effects
SOURCE: US 2000 Census data
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
2003
1979
Boomers in 1979Boomers in 2003
Suicide Rates, Teen and Adults
Cohort effects
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Per
cent
of
All
Col
lege
Fre
shm
en
be very well off financially develop meaningful philosophy of life
College Freshmen Survey, 1967-98:Personal Objectives Considered Important...
Source: UCLA Freshman Poll, "The American Freshman" (1997, 1999)
http://www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri/norms06.php
Out of wedlock – age effects
0.05
10.05
20.05
30.05
40.05
50.05
60.05
70.05
80.05
90.05
Ages 15-17
Ages 18–19
Ages 20–24
Ages 25–29
Ages 30–34
Out of Wedlock Births, by Age, 1980-2008
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
Out of wedlock – relative
0.05
0.55
1.05
1.55
2.05
2.55
3.05
Ages 15-17
Ages 18–19
Ages 20–24
Ages 25–29
Ages 30–34
Out of Wedlock Births, Normalized, 1980-2008
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
Defining generations
• Birthrates and Population (parent optimism) • Society-wide attitudes to children• Parental child-rearing strategies• Youth “zeitgeist”• External behavior (crimes, community service
participation, chosen professions, pop culture)• Internal states (beliefs, feelings, attitudes about
oneself)• Perceived role in history (the generational “myth”)
US births - per 1000
0.05
5.05
10.05
15.05
20.05
25.05
30.05
35.05 Relative Birthrates per Thousand, 1910-2009
SOURCE: Childstats.gov
WWII Gen
Wave
Boomer
Wave Echo Boom
Bir
thra
tes
per
100
0
US births - absolute
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000 Absolute Births, 1910-2009
Boomer
Silent
Xer
Millennial
Mill
ions
US population by age
20
25
30
35
40
45
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Year
ly B
irth
s, M
illio
ns
U.S. Youth Population, Aged 15-24in Millions, 1930 to 2020
Future years taken from official middle series projections.Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
Millennial
WaveBoomer
Wave
WWII Gen
Wave
Desire for kids
0.05
1.05
2.05
3.05
4.05
5.05
6.05
Ages 15-19
Teen Pregnancy/Abortion Ratios, 1972-2008
SOURCE: Guttmacher Institute
Rowe vs. Wade
Millennial Birth YearsMore Pregnancies
Carried to term
Fewer Pregnancies
Carried to term
Child-rearing strategies• 1970s
– Child-rearing manuals advised letting the child “raise themselves” to avoid hampering parental self-discovery
– Children were seen as “little adults”– Education strategies threw away rules in favor of
exploration
• 1990s– Child-rearing manuals advised strict rules with a paternal
style– Family values replaced self-discovery– Children were seen as…well, children– Education moved to standards-based tests with scores
and levels
Society’s attitude to youth
GenX (late 1980s) Millennial (early 2000s)
Perceived role in history
• Generations may see themselves as:– Heroes fixing the world– Prophets redeeming the world– Nomads trying to survive the world
• Popular culture (e.g. movies) archetypes may describe generational styles
Generational models
• Generation Me (Twenge)
• GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
• Millennials Rising (Strauss & Howe)
• GenY (Ad Age)
• GenTech/Net (Various)
How Generational Models Differ• Generation Me (Jean Twenge)
– Focus on reported “inward” feelings– Negative about youth
• GenY (Bruce Tulgan)– Focus on “outward” characteristics– Generations mapped to business savvy– Neutral about youth
• Millennials Rising (Strauss & Howe, Winograd & Hais)– Focus on “outward” characteristics– Generations fit to archetypes– Very positive about youth
• GenY (Ad Age) and GenTech/Net– Focus on current media use– Generations mapped to technology– Positive about youth (as avid consumers)
Generation “Me”
• Developed by Jean Twenge, PhD• Similar analysis in “Lost in Transition”
by Smith et. al.• Emphasis:
SOURCES: http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/lost_in_transition_i
Gen ME website: http://www.generationme.org/
Lost In Transition, Christian Smith et. al., Oxford
•Uses reported inner feelings to define generations
•Connects negative youth attitudes to “broken” popular culture
•Blames rise in narcissistic behavior due to indulgent Boomer parenting styles
•Traces breakdown in moral reasoning to “postmodernism” education
•Fragile economy driving increased dependency of children on parents
Generation “Me”
• Features – Overly-entitled attitudes with “special” feeling– Relativistic reasoning– “Submersion of self into private networks of technologically
managed intimates and associates.” – Failure to launch from parents– Maximize options/postpone commitments – “Good” behavior due only to society pressure– Alienated, anxiety-burdened, miserable inner lives
• Prescriptive– Parents should reduce “I am special” parenting– Schools should emphasize, critical thinking
GenY (Bruce Tulgan)• Developed by Bruce Tulgan• Several authors make similar analysis (e.g.
Carolyn Martin, Homo mobilis in The Economist)• Emphasis:
•GenX * GenX = GenY
•Pampered, nurtured, programmed by indulgent parents
•Polished by social networks
•More information-savvy than their bosses
•Raised to equate social interaction with network communication
•Born to multitask
GenY (Bruce Tulgan)
• Features:– Expect constant praise for “specialness”– Information-smart: more factoids at their fingertips– Local transactions are the only reality– Constantly optimize work & life via social networks– Demand work-life balance– High value on personal self fulfillment – Ignore business hierarchy
• Prescriptive– More equal employer-employee relationships– Let them exploit their networks– Flexibility in work time, methods– Clearly describe, “gamelike” levels in a career
Strauss & Howe
• Developed by Bill Strauss & Neil Howe• Similar analysis by Morley Winograd &
Mike Hais focuses on US political cycles• Emphasis:
SOURCES: Generations: A History of America’s Future
Lifecourse Website: http://www.lifecourse.com
•Uses outer behavior to define generations
•Generations are defined by parenting, zeitgeist
•Describes an ~80 year cycle which sees the passage of 4 generational archetypes:
•Defines historical “realignments” based on features of rising generation
•Civic – Millennial, “Greatest” Gen
•Adaptative – Silent, Plural
•Prophet – Boomer, “Missionary”
•Nomad – GenX, “Lost”
Strauss & Howe
• Features– Millennials are a “Civic” generation– They will shift society in a “conventional” direction– A “fix-it” gen repairing damage from the1960s and 1970s– “Special” and “sheltered” but also “achieving” and “pressured”– Millennials look to the group, rather than the individual to solve
problems– Millennials represent the rising wave of a 40-year liberal political
realignment– Someday, their “Prophet” children will rebel against them
• Prescriptive– Be Obi-wan to their Luke Skywalker– Treat them as rule-followers– Paternalistic management style– Let them work in teams
US generations - birth era
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Mill
ions
of B
irths
Total US births in millions, 1950-1998
Unchanged fertility means unchanged at every age from 1975 levels.Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
BOOMERS GEN-XERS MILLENNIALS
Births withunchanged fertilitybehavior since 1975
Various GenYGen ME: 1970-2000
“Echo Boomers”
The Long BoomPostwar Boom Stagflation
SOURCE: Lifecourse Associates, from US 2000 Census data
Generational ages in 2012
Plurals0-9?
Millennials are where Boomers were in 1972, and Generation X was in 1986
Silents
70-87
Boomers
52-69
Xers
31-51
Millennials
10?-30
“Boomers” (1943-1960)
• Childhood– Economic boom– Children indulged– Social stability– Standards were loosening
• Core values– Ideological– Spiritual – Judgmental, pessimistic– Perfectionist– Narcissistic– Rebellious– PROPHET
“GenX” (1961-1981)• Childhood
– Economic bust– Children unprotected,
criticized– “Latch-key” childhood– Social instability– Standards were loosening
• Core values– Pragmatism – Authenticity– “No Rules” edgy– “Whatever works”, speed– Transaction-focused– Results-focused– NOMAD
GenX/Y childhood in media1964 Children of the Damned
1967 Rosemary’s Baby
1973 The Exorcist
1974 It’s Alive!
1976 Look What’s Happened to Rosemary’s Baby
1976 The Omen
1976 Carrie
1977 Exorcist II: The Heretic
1977 Eraserhead
1978 It Lives Again
1978 Damien—Omen II
1978 Halloween
1979 The Brood
1980 The Children
1981 The Final Conflict
1981 Halloween II
1984 Firestarter
1984 Children of the Corn
1988 Child’s Play
There’s only one thing wrong with the Davis baby . . .
Millennials (1982-2004)• Childhood
– Economic boom– Children protected & celebrated– “Helicopter parents” make kids friends– Ultra-planned childhood– Social stability via “Lockdown”– Standards were tightening
• Core values– Special– Confident, optimistic– Rules-focused– Connected– Team-players– Socially conscious– CIVIC
Millennial parental generation
Millennial
Birth years
SOURCE: US Census data, rebundled by generation
http://www.census.gov
Boomer
Birth yearsXer
Birth years
Millennial diversity
35.5%
32.1%
24.1%
19.3%
14.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Millennial Gen-X Boom Silent G.I.
Per
cen
t o
f G
ener
atio
n
Other
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Nonwhite Race and Hispanic Ethnicity,by Generation, in 1999
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
born1982 on
born1961-81
born1943-60
born1925-42
born1901-24
How parents created Millennials
• Boomer parents in the 1980s and 1990s ceased self-discovery – and focused on their children as “very special.”
• Hands-off child rearing was replaced by child protection laws, “standards-based” school testing, and “no tolerance” behavior guidelines.
• Even “progressive” Boomer parents developed hyper protective parenting styles (Elaine Bell Kaplan, USC sociology dept.)
• Millennials are most often the children of immigrants, (first-generation high expectations)
Helicopter parents
“…Jessica Wolf is being watched. Every homework assignment she turns in, every class she attends, every test the 15-year-old sophomore takes at Sabino High School, her mother, Tina, can simply log on to her home computer and check her daughter's academic progress….via the Tucson Unified School District's parental-access system, an online network that allows parents to track attendance and grades and e-mail teachers.
At some other local schools, parents can even check what their kids buy for lunch…”
SOURCE: Daniel Scarpinato, Arizona Daily Star, http://www.azstarnet.com, 10.16.2005
Millennial childhood in media1982 E.T The Extra-Terrestrial
1986 Aliens
1987 Three Men and a Baby
1987 Raising Arizona
1987 Baby Boom
1989 The Little Mermaid
1989 Look Who’s Talking
1989 Parenthood
1990 Look Who’s Talking Too
1990 Home Alone
1991 Little Man Tate
1993 Three Men and a Little Lady
1993 Searching for Bobby Fisher
1994 The Lion King
1994 Angels in the Outfield
1997 Liar Liar
1998 Rugrats: The Movie
1999 Big Daddy
1999 The Iron Giant
2000 My Dog Skip
2001 The Princess Diaries
2002 Spy Kids
2001 Monsters, Inc.
2001 Harry Potter
2002 Big Fat Liar
2002 About a Boy
They changed her diapers. She changed their lives . . .
Millennial traits summarized
• According to S & H, Millennials are…– SPECIAL (wizards in training)– SHELTERED (naïve about real world)– CONFIDENT (I can do anything))– CONVENTIONAL (rules, authority have value)– TEAM-PLAYER (group most important)– PRESSURED (work, work, work…)– ACHIEVING (value society’s rewards)
0.05
20.05
40.05
60.05
80.05
100.05
120.05
Pregnancy
Births
Abortions
Millennial reproduction
SOURCE: Guttmacher Institute
Teen Pregnancy, Birth and Abortion, Ages 15-19
Teen birthrate
lowest in 70 years
Millennials
Abortion rate
Comparable to 1972
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
yo
uth
s, 1
2-17
Offender RateVictimization RateArrests
Millennial crime
Serious violent crimes are murders, rapes
robberies, and aggravated results
SOURCE: US. Department of Justice ·Bureau of Justice Statistics,US DOJ Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention
GTA 1
GTA 3
Serious Violent Crime, Age 12-17*
Millennials
School Shootings
SOURCE: National School Safety Center Report, http://www.schoolsafety.us/media-resources/school-associated-violent-deaths
Grade/High School Shootings, 1992-2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Millennials
School violence
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Total faculty, student, staff violent deathsWith student homicide and suicides ages 5-18 at school
SOURCE: National Center for Educational Statistics
http://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/crimeindicators2011/figures/figure_01_1.asp
Millennials
Student
Faculty
Staff
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Perc
ent o
f All
Kids
, 12-
1 7
Share of Teens Aged 12-17 Having Specified DrugWithin the Last Month, 1979 to 1999
Source: U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (1999)
Alcohol
Cigarettes
Binge Alcohol
Marijuana
Cocaine
Drug use by generations
Boomers
Xers
Millennials
Millennial role models
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Parents Teachers Police Music Celebs Athletes
SOURCE: ZOOM and Applied Research & Consulting LLC 2001 survey of nearly 10,000 kids aged 9-13 for PBS
Who did Millennial Tweens Trust in 2001?
Millennial test scores
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
MathOnly
CriticalReading
SOURCE: College Board 2006 Report
http://professionals.collegeboard.com/data-reports-research/sat/archived
SAT Scores of College-Bound Seniors – 1967-2006
Millennials
Millennial volunteerismYouth volunteer activity, 1976-2004
Millennial religion & politics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
School Prayer Fed. Aid to Religion Restrict Abortion
TeensAge 27-59
SOURCE: UC Berkeley Survey Research Center as part of the center's Public Agendas and Citizen Engagement Survey (PACES) project, 2002
Religion and Politics (2002)
Perc
ent S
uppo
rt
Millennial house of worship
Millennial voting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18-24
25-44
45-64
65-100
Voter Turnout, Presidential Elections 1964-2008
SOURCE: US Census, Historical Election Data
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html
Pe
rce
nt T
urn
ou
t
Millennials
Youth
Boomers
Elder
Xers
Midlife
Voting by generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Lost
GI
Silent
Boom
Generation X
Millennial
Presidential Election Turnout,
Rebundled by Generation, 1964-2008
SOURCE: US Census, Historical Election Data
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html
Pe
rce
nt T
urn
ou
t
Negative trends - activity
169%
138%
86%
58%
38%
-11%
-13%
-24%
-51%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Weekly Hours of Children Aged 3-12, by ActivityPercent Change, from 1981 to 1997
Source: Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan (1999)
Outdoors
Free Play
TV
Eating
School
Studying
Organized Sports
Household Work
Visiting / Traveling
Percent Change
Negative trends - health
• Large numbers of Millennials have documented disabilities
• Take drugs to get “better” (Boomers took drugs to get worse)
• Lack of physical activity = obesity
• Millennials could be the first US generation with a lower life expectancy than its parents
Negative trends - gender
Boys, 18%
Boys, 31%
Boys, 45%
Boys, 64%
Girls, 32%
Girls, 49%
Girls, 60%
Girls, 81%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
I earn mostly A's
I give priority to homework
I take the most challengingcourses
I try to do their best in allclasses
Survey of Students Aged 14-18 in 1998-99,Answers by Gender
Source: Horatio Alger Association (1999)
Millennial Gender Gap in College
Low-income (Less than $30,000)
Middle-income ($30,000 to $69,999)
Upper Income ($70,000 or more)
1995-96 1999-00 2003-04 1995-96 1999-00 2003-04 1995-96 1999-00 2003-04
White 46 42 42 50 46 43 52 48 49
Black 32 36 36 48 42 42 41 48 48
Hispanic 43 43 39 46 51 42 50 52 49
Asian 53 51 47 57 48 50 52 54 51
All 44 42 40 50 47 44 51 48 49
Data: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Postsecondary Student Aid Studies, 1995-96, 1999-2000, 2003-04
Income ranges adjusted for inflation to 1995-96 dollars; Source: ACE Center for Policy Analysis
SOURCE: http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2005-10-19-male-college-cover_x.htm
College “gender gap” by age in 2005
Negative trends - work
SOURCE: Economic Policy Institute
http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/leaving_in_droves/
Millennial economics 2012
• A typical U.S. household headed by someone 65 or older has 46 times the net worth of one headed by someone under 35
• The median net worth of households headed by someone 65 or older is 42% more than in 1984
• The median net worth for younger-age households was $3,662, down by 68% from the 1980s
• Households headed by someone under age 35 had their median net worth reduced by 27% in 2009 as a result of unsecured liabilities, mostly a combination of credit card debt and student loans.
Sources: Pew Research Center
US Census Bureau
Negative trends - debt
Millennial “Zeitgeist”
• Society becoming safer• Social norms continue to tighten• Heroes replace anti-heroes• The end of identity politics• The end of the “get rich or die trying” era• Entitlement (a generation’s naïve behavior)• Generation Debt (especially for school)• Failure to launch as the economy crashes• “Outsider” violence and threats• Girl power and “the boy problem”• Class replaces race, gender as the social issue• Politics and groups are (once again) the solution
Recommended Reading
Not Everyone Geta A Trophy:
How to Manage Generation Y
by Bruce Tulgan (2009, Wiley)
ISBN: 978-0-470-25626-8
Millennials Incorporated
by Lisa Orrell (2008, Wyatt-MacKenzie)
ISBN: 978-1-932279-82-5
Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube &
The Future of American Politics by Morley
Winograd, (2008, Rutgers) ISBN: 0-8135-
4301-0
Millennials and the Pop Culture by Pete
Markiewicz, (2005, Lifecourse)
http://lifecourse.com/store/books.html
Millennials Rising: The Next Great
Generation
(2000, Vintage), ISBN: 037570719-0
Generations: A History of America’sFuture 1594 to 2069 by William Strauss& Neil Howe (1992, Harper)ISBN: 0688119123
