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Generating scenarios of salmon recovery: what are the mechanisms linking climate
variability to marine survival?
E. Logerwell1, N. Mantua2, P. Lawson3,
R. Francis4 and V. Agostini4
1Alaska Fisheries Science Center
2 Univ. Washington School of Marine Affairs/Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
3 Northwest Fisheries Science Center
4 Univ. Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science
Salmon and Climate
Mantua, et al. 1997
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index
above average
below average
#
Columbia River
Newport
Oregon
Washington
California40° 40°
41° 41°
42° 42°
43° 43°
44° 44°
45° 45°
46° 46°
47° 47°
48° 48°
49° 49°
127°
127°
126°
126°
125°
125°
124°
124°
123°
123°
122°
122°
121°
121°
Oregon Production Index (OPI) Coho Salmon
OPI Coho Survival
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
1969 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99Year (ocean entry)
Sur
viva
l (pr
opor
tion
)
Previous studies link coho survival to ...
• Upwelling (Nickelson, 1986)
• Sea surface temperature (Cole, 2000)
• Spring transition (Ryding & Skalski, 1999)
• Spring and winter ocean conditions (Koslow, et al. in press)
• Select variables that represent local nearshore conditions
• GAM to understand effects of ocean processes on survival
• Examine linkages between model variables and climate indices
Our study of coho survival
Conceptual model
Spring transitiondate
Water column stratification(influenced by winter climate)
Spring/Summerupwelling winds
1st Winterocean feeding
Smolt migration
Feeding and predatoravoidance
Overwintermortality
Coho early marine life history
Environmental bottlenecks
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-1000 mb
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
NPI
60 80 100 120 140 160
Julian Day0.
000.
040.
080.
12
Sur
viva
l
Spring transition*
0 20 40 60
m^3/s/100 m
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
Upwelling*
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-1000 mb
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
NPI
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
m^3/s/100 m
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
Upwelling*
10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
degrees C
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
SST
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
m^3/s/100 m
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
Upwelling
9 10 11 12
degrees C
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
SST*
-150 -100 -50 0 50
mm
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
lSea level*
9 10 11 12
degrees C
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
Sur
viva
l
SST*
Winter (Jan-Mar) before smolt migration
Spring (April-June)
Winter (Jan-Mar) after smolt migration
Transition
GAM Results
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
1969 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99Year (ocean entry)
Sur
viva
l (pr
opor
tion
) ObservedPredicted
How might recovery scenarios affect salmon?
• Life stage? – marine survival
• Habitat characteristics? – winter SST, spring transition, spring upwelling
• Forecasts? – climate linkages between NPI, PDO and pre-
smolt winter SST
Uncertainty?
• Biological dimension of ocean habitat– Predators? – Prey?
• Climate forecasts– Natural variability (El Niño, PDO, other)– Anthropogenic change
Alternative scenarios?
Can we make a similar forecast for ocean variables (such as SST) or climate variables (such as NPI)?
Beth Sinclair and Tonya Zepplinhttp://nmml.afsc.noaa.gov/AlaskaEcosystems/sslhome/Program%20Review%20Presentations/Program%20Review.htm