General Recommendations on STS

General Recommendations on STS

Carsten Boldsen Hansen

Economic Statistics Section, UNECE

UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) and Seasonal Adjustmentand Seasonal Adjustment14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan

March 2011 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2

Overview

General guidelines and quality Sources for methodology guidelines Response burden STS vs. SBS Time series Release Practices Metadata User consultation


“The use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels.”The ninth principle of The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

in the Region of the Economic Commission for Europe, UNECE


General Guidelines

The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (UN)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/gp/fundprinciples.aspx

Quality of Statistics• Data Quality Assessment Framework (IMF)

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/dsbb/2003/eng/dqaf.htm

• ESS quality framework (EC) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/quality/introduction

• OECD quality framework (OECD)http://www.oecd.org/document/43/0,3343,en_2649_33715_21571947_1_1_1_1,00.html

Handbook of Statistical Organization, The Operation and Organization of a Statistical Agency, 2003http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/hb/default.aspx


The Fundamental Principles

1. indispensable for a democratic society 2. statistical agencies decide methods and

procedures 3. present data according to scientific

standards 4. comment on erroneous interpretation5. statistical agencies choose the data

sources with regard to quality, timeliness, costs and burden


The Fundamental Principles

6. strictly confidentiality of individual data and use exclusively for statistical purposes

7. statistical laws, regulations and measures to be made public

8. coordination among statistical agencies within countries

9. use of international concepts, classifications and methods

10. bilateral and multilateral cooperation


Respondent Burden

Minimizing respondent burden should be an important objective vs. cut-off sampling

Coordination of data collections would help reducing response burden and to divide it more evenly among respondents

Existing sources of information should be used to the largest extent possible• Administrative registers• Commercial datasets• Data collected by other organizations


Coherence

= Degree to which data is logically connected and mutually consistent• Coherence within a data set• Coherence across data sets

common concepts, definitions, valuation principles, classifications and co-operation

• Coherence over time• Coherence across countries

Extent to which the recommendations have been adopted

Link to national accounts important


STS vs Structural Statistics (SBS)

STS = measures economic developmentsSBS = a snapshot describing structure & detail STS and SBS have different data sources,

definitions, statistical methods, timing and coverage (fiscal/calendar)

Treatment of changes in the population• SBS: the population in the reference year as it is• STS: makes different time periods comparable

(by correcting for mergers and splits etc) Further improvement of coherence needed!


List of Methodology Guidelines

Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics (EC), 2006 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-06-001-EN.pdf

International Recommendations for the Index of Industrial Production (UN), 2010 http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc10/BG-IndustrialStats.pdf

Use of Administrative Sources for Business Statistics Purposes (EC), 1999 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/CA-24-99-897-__-N-EN.pdf

International Recommendations for Distributive Trade Statistics (UN), 2009http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/Inter_Rec_for_Distribut_Trade_Stat.pdf

Methodological guide for Producer Price Indices for Services, (EC) 2005 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-06-003-EN.pdf

Evolution of Service Statistics, proceedings of a seminar, (EC) 2002 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-02-001-__-N-EN.pdf

Consumer Price Index Manual, Theory and Practice, 2004 (ILO) http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guides/cpi/index.htm

Practical Guide to Producing Consumer Price Indices, 2009 (UNECE/ILO)http://www.unece.org/stats/publications/Practical_Guide_to_Producing_CPI.pdf

Producer Price Index Manual, Theory and Practice, 2004 (IMF) http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/tegppi/index.htm

Export and Import Price Manual, 2008 (IMF)http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/tegeipi/index.htm


Time Series Recommendations

Fixed base indices and/or absolute values for discrete periods to be provided

New series should be linked to the old series to produce continuous series

Cumulative statistics should be published only as additional information

If seasonality influences the indicator, seasonally adjusted and trend series to be published

Reference period should be a year and be updated when the weights are updated


Importance of Long Time Series (1)

Long and consistent time series important for• International comparison• Analysis • Appraisal of business cycles

Current practices of countries vary significantly Currently no international standards on:

• Length of time series • Methods for backcasting• Implementing changes of classifications


Importance of Long Time Series (2)

STS regulation (EC) requires time series from 2000, Eurostat recommends much longer series

Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics:

“To carry out statistical analysis such as seasonal adjustment it is generally considered necessary to have observations for a minimum of 5 years… …for example, in the search for turning points it is important to be able to have data available for several complete cycles.”


Dissemination

Data should be released as soon as possible• Trade off between timeliness and quality

Data to be released according to a set timetable Confidentiality to be secured Data made available to all users at the same time Data to be revised as new information is available Data to be accompanied by explanations Contact details of relevant statisticians to be given

Source: Index of Industrial Production (UN)


Reference Period

Some guidelines by IMF and Eurostat:

• Prices, output and sales Monthly

• (GDP), labour variables at least Quarterly (un/employment monthly)


Timeliness Guidelines

Some guidelines by IMF and Eurostat

Indicator DaysEurostat IMF

output 40 45prices 30-45 30new orders 50sales / turnover 60 60persons employed 60hours worked 90wages and salaries 90 90


Metadata and Dissemination Guides

UN • The Common Metadata Framework• Making Data Meaningful 1 and 2• Guidelines for Statistical Metadata on the Internet• Terminology on Statistical Metadata

OECD • Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation• Glossary of Statistical Terms • Publishing Standards for Datasets and Data Tables

IMF • Guide to the Data Dissemination Standards


Metadata Management

“data about data” Identify users and provide only valuable metadata Ensure metadata is easily available Reuse metadata for integration and efficiency Preserve history (old versions) of metadata Document variations from standards Make metadata work an integral part of production Create a coherent system for metadata Ensure that the metadata for users reflects the real

production process


Contents of Metadata Purpose and main uses of the statistics Definitions of the underlying economic concepts Reference to the respective legislation Data coverage, periodicity and timeliness Self assessment of data quality

• revision history and accuracy of concepts• availability, comparability and coherence• limitations in the use of statistics

Descriptions of the methodologies used• Index formula, weighting and frequency of revising• Frequency of re-basing and linking methods• Treatment of changes in commodities or quality

Source: Index of industrial production (UN) & some NSO’s recommendations


User Consultation

Create mechanisms to obtain users’ views on regular basis in order to• identify priority areas for improvement• ensure responding to user needs• provide users with advice on the strengths and

weaknesses of your statistics Important with key indicators (CPI, IPI, GDP...) Engaging users should be an integral part of the

work in the NSO• Mutual understanding and exchange of information

(=transparency) builds trust• Decisions will be made independently by the NSO

Source: Practical Guide to Producing CPI (UN)

Documents

General Recommendations on STS