GCM 2006

Physical Fundamentals of GC19.12.2006

Boris Michel

Possible Ecological, Economical and Social

Impacts of Climate Change

Sources

•Atlas der Globalisierung•IPCC: 3rd Assessment Report 2001.

• Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber: Der Klimawandel.• Schellnhuber et al.: Avoiding dangerous climate change.• Stehr, von Storch: Klima, Wetter, Mensch.• Stern: Review on the Economics of Climate Change.

• www.pik-potsdam.de• www.un.org• www.un.org/esa/sustdev/documents/agenda21/• www.wikipedia.org

Contents

1. Introduction: Impact Research

2.Ecological Impacts

3.Economical and Social Impacts

3.1 Natural disasters3.2 Agriculture3.3 Water supply3.4 Human health

4.Conclusion

Impact Research

Global warming happens – but nobody can feel it…

On a regional scale Climate Change can be experienced, e.g. by extreme weather events, changed precipitation or temperature.

Regional fluctuations are stronger than the global ones, but they are dependent on atmospheric and oceanic circulation and thus difficult to calculate and to predict. Forecast is less reliable.

Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001

Temperature-related regional climate change impacts:

Ecological Impacts

... depend from Climate Change on a regional scale

... affect complex and living systems

hard to calculate and to predict

Surveys showed:

Diversification of ecosystems goes into the direction to the frontiers of acclimatization – which mostly is towards the pole.

The human influence:

• climate will get warmer than during the last millions of years

• change will come faster than ever

• human land-use is a barrier for the movement of animals and plants

dramatic loss of biodiversity

Examples:

• by a warming up to 1 K:disturbance on sensitive ecosystems

• by a warming of 1-2 K:severe damage on sensitive and other ecosystems

• by a warming of 2-3 K:collaps of the rainforest in the Amazon; extinction of many plant species in New Zealand, Europe, Tibet

• by a warming of more than 3 K:total melting of the arctic sea ice

Economical and Social Impacts

Economical impacts of CC affect the society, and social impacts disturb the (development of) economy.

Economy

ClimateChange

Society

Natural disasters:

The frequency of extreme weather events increases.

Examples are:

El Niño 1997/1998

www.liv.ac.uk/~sdb/Safari-2005/Images/1344-el-nino.jpg

Elbe flood 2002

http://map.ioer.de/website/hochw/hw-bilder/terassenufer.htm

Katrina/Hurricane season 2005

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Navy-FloodedNewOrleans.jpg

Agriculture:

Crop yield responses to climate change...

... increased CO2 concentration stimulates growth and yield

… vegetation period gets longer

but

... higher temperatures could be too hot

... higher temperatures cause water stress

... irrigation stresses the soil

http://ihp.bafg.de/servlet/is/8397/drought1.jpeg

www.drk.de/afrika/pressefotos/Hungerhilfe/images/mosambik_ueberschwemmung.jpg

Water supply:

The difference between wet and dry seasons/humid and arid regions will increase due to changing precipitation and streamflow patterns.

Demand for water is increasing, depending on population growth, use efficiency and irriagtion demands.

20% of the population live without clean fresh water, 50% without sanitary facilities. (Agenda 21) About 5 billion people will live in water-stressed countries in the year 2025.

Human health:

Besides the direct impacts of natural disasters:

• Agenda 21: 1/3 of all deaths in developing countries happen because of contaminated water.

• Furthermore insect-transmitted diseases (Malaria, Dengue-fever, FSME) will spread out.

• WHO-Study from 2002: 150 000 per year die because of global warming.

Conclusion

Despite the warming of only 0.8 K its impacts can be observed and should not be neglected.

Poor people in the less developed countries and next to coasts are more vulnerable than others.

Humans, animals and plants are very adjusted to the actual climate, and not all of them would survive a shift of the climes.

Thanks for your attention!!!

19.12.2006Boris Michel

Comments for Boris Michel from Manfred Stock

1. To be finished .....