GCC Hotels Future Pipeline Survey, September 2011 September 14 th , Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Dubai. Presenter: Guy Wilkinson, Viability

www.viability.ae…when diligence is due

GCC Hotels Future Pipeline Survey, September 2011September 14th, Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Dubai. Presenter: Guy Wilkinson, Viability

Hyatt at Capital Gate, Abu Dhabi


Viability Management Consultants

• Hospitality and real estate development consultancy• Established in 2006• Principals have consulted in every country in the Middle East except

Iraq, as well as many in Africa• Specialized in providing:

– Bankable feasibility, market and related studies– Operator selection and contract negotiations– Strategic advice

• Reputation for quality, detail and realistic advice

“Truly an expert consulting company.”

“…a most valuable contribution to our knowledge base.”

“All responses from Viability were exceptionally prompt and pertinent.”


Viability’s annual GCC future hotel survey: methodology

• 13th continual year of survey.• All chains active in the GCC are canvassed directly.• Ranking based on numbers of rooms and suites only. • Ranking includes only chain hotel projects that are firmly

committed.• Excluded:

– All rumoured projects.– All unsigned projects.– All projects for which opening dates have yet to be confirmed.– All single owner-operated properties. – All serviced and residential apartments, chalets and villas

(but more on those later...)


GCC Confirmed Future Hotel Pipeline Trends, 2007 - 2011

199

295325

283 274

57,743

82,357

92,026

83,604

77,020

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

HotelsRooms


GCC Hotel Chain Rankings, September 20111 Marriott 10,472 2 Hilton 9,894 3 IHG 7,316 4 Rotana 5,367 5 Starwood 4,938 6 Accor 4,422 7 Fairmont Raffles 3,966 8 Millennium 3,745 9 Movenpick 3,187 10 Rezidor 2,233 11 Best Western 2,132 12 Kempinski 1,779 13 Jumeirah 1,428 14 Hyatt 1,340 15 Golden Tulip 1,250 16 Four Seasons 973 17 Coral 967 18 Wyndham 881 19 City Seasons 845 20 Citymax 753 21 Premier Inn 742 22 Formosa 737 23 MGM 671 24 MENA 584 25 Southern Sun 552 26 QNH 540 27 Oetker 500 28 Rocco Forte 440 29 Ramee 415 30 West Paces 414

1 Marriott 332 IHG 263 Hilton 244 Rotana 185 Accor 176 Starwood 177 Millennium 158 Best Western 109 Movenpick 910 Rezidor 911 Coral 712 Fairmont Raffles 713 Golden Tulip 714 Kempinski 615 Jumeirah 516 Citymax 417 Four Seasons 418 Hyatt 419 Wyndham 420 Anantara 321 City Seasons 322 MENA 323 Premier Inn 324 QNH 325 Ramee 326 Ayla 227 Banyan Tree 228 Formosa 229 Mandarin Oriental 230 MGM 2

Rooms/Suites Hotels


Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Chain, September 2011

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Future GCC Hotels by Chain, September 201133

2624

1817 17

15

109 9

7 7 76

54 4 4 4

3 3 3 3 3 32 2 2 2 2

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


All Future GCC Letting Units by Chain, September 2011

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Rooms Apartments & Villas


Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Country, September 2011

Bahrain, 3,271 , 4% Kuwait, 1,793 , 2%

Oman, 4,579 , 6%

Qatar, 6,859 , 9%

Saudi Arabia, 28,260 , 37%

UAE, 32,258 , 42%


Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Country, 2009-2011

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE2009 2010 2011


Future GCC Hotels by Country, 2009-2011

13 1624 27

52

193

2010

1829

46

160

137

2227

95

110

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE

2009 2010 2011


Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by City, September 2011

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Future GCC Hotels by City, September 2011

4442

2725

1916

12 11 107 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


Future GCC Hotels by Project Status, September 2011

Advanced 1 year, 9, 3%

On time, 167, 61%

Delayed 1 year, 50, 18%

Delayed 2 years, 32, 12%

Delayed 3 years, 13, 5%

Delayed 4 years, 2, 1% Delayed 5 years, 1, 0%


GCC Hotel Projects Put on Hold or Cancelled, 2009-2011

3 3

108 7

44

2

68

2

12

37

6

0

4 57

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


2009 2010 2011


GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites Put on Hold or Cancelled, 2009-11

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


2009 2010 2011


Jabal Omar, Makkah• $5.5bn project largely

responsible for keeping Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt at the top of the rankings.

• Between them, these three leading operators are planning to open 12 hotels with almost 7,000 rooms in the Jabal Omar project.

• Hilton alone will open no less than 6 hotels with >4,000 rooms at Jabal Omar, under its Conrad, Hilton, Hilton Suites and DoubleTree brands.


New Chains & Brands• Ayla is a new operator specializing in Al

Ain in Abu Dhabi emirate. • Taiwanese company Formosa will open the

first Regent hotel in Abu Dhabi, having bought the brand from Rezidor.

• Mandarin Oriental is making its GCC debut with properties in Abu Dhabi and Doha.

• Saudi chain Mena will soon open its first non-Saudi property in Muscat.

• MGM, star of Las Vegas, is bringing its Bellagio and MGM Grand brands to the Dubai Pearl project.

• Established by former Ritz-Carlton pioneers, West Paces is debuting its luxurious Solis brand in Doha.

• Accor will open the first example of its design-focussed MGallery concept in Doha.

• Hyatt Place, formerly AmeriSuites, will open in Makkah.

• The first Langham Place will be in Doha.• Millennium’s upscale brand The Biltmore

will debut in Abu Dhabi.• Swiss Belhotel will launch Swiss Bellin

and Swiss Belexpress hotels in Oman.

Regent Emirates Pearl Hotel, Abu Dhabi


Abu

Dhab

i Pip

elin

eNo Brand Rooms Apts Villas Total Year Rating1 Anantara 223 223 2012 52 Biltmore 226 226 2013 53 Centro 229 229 2011 34 Centro 414 414 2012 35 City Seasons 355 355 2012 56 City Seasons 189 189 2012 37 Citymax 250 250 2015 38 Courtyard by Marriott 195 195 2014 49 Cristal 112 112 2011 410 Danat 11 11 2011 511 Dusit Thani 401 131 532 2012 512 Fairmont 446 446 2014 513 Four Seasons 200 125 325 2014 514 Hotel Le Bristol 250 250 2014 515 Hotel Le Bristol 250 250 2014 516 Hyatt 200 200 2011 517 Ibis 294 294 2012 318 InterContinental 275 275 2014 519 Jumeirah 400 202 602 2011 520 Mandarin Oriental 160 35 195 2014 521 Marriott 379 379 2014 522 Millennium 412 229 641 2012 523 Movenpick 473 240 713 2015 524 Movenpick 400 400 2015 525 Movenpick 500 500 2014 526 Novotel 361 361 2012 327 Novotel 160 64 224 2012 328 Park Hyatt 290 290 2011 529 Premier Inn 242 242 2011 330 Premier Inn 300 300 2013 331 Ramada 120 120 2011 432 Regent 377 60 437 2012 533 Renaissance 279 132 411 2014 534 Ritz Carlton 567 567 2012 535 Rocco Forte 281 281 2011 536 Rosewood 190 140 330 2012 537 Rotana 354 13 367 2014 538 Rotana 315 315 2012 539 Sofitel 280 280 2012 540 Southern Sun 352 352 2013 441 St. Regis 279 279 2012 542 St. Regis 380 380 2011 543 W 330 330 2013 544 Westin 148 148 2011 5


Duba

i Pip

elin

eNo Brand Rooms Apts Villas Total Year Rating1 Novotel 376 90 466 2012 42 Pullman 278 76 354 2012 43 Sofitel 356 187 543 2013 54 Sofitel 350 350 2013 55 Auris 337 337 2012 56 Citymax Hotels 150 150 2015 37 City Seasons 209 209 2014 48 Corp Executive Hotel 208 208 2011 49 Fairmont 382 382 2012 510 Conrad 559 559 2012 511 Doubletree by Hilton 344 344 2012 412 Hilton 415 100 515 2014 513 Hilton 371 371 2011 514 Crowne Plaza 407 407 2014 515 Crowne Plaza 400 400 2013 516 Holiday Inn 416 416 2015 417 Jumeirah 293 293 2012 518 Courtyard by Marriott 152 152 2015 419 Courtyard by Marriott 250 250 2013 420 Courtyard by Marriott 220 220 2015 421 JW Marriott 167 167 2013 522 JW Marriott 900 900 2012 523 Marriott 355 355 2012 524 Renaissance 300 300 2015 525 Renaissance 328 328 2013 526 Ritz Carlton 163 163 2012 527 Melia 164 164 2011 528 Bellagio 291 160 451 2014 529 MGM Grand 380 20 400 2014 530 Millennium 416 416 2011 531 Ramee Grand 175 175 2015 532 Rosewood 190 190 2012 533 Centro 537 537 2014 334 Rayhaan 428 428 2011 535 Sheraton 640 640 2014 536 Palazzo Versace 215 215 2012 537 Ramada 252 252 2011 438 Movenpick 168 308 476 2011 339 Movenpick 296 296 2012 540 Movenpick 324 324 2012 541 Park Inn by Radisson 268 268 2014 442 Park Inn by Radisson 310 60 370 2013 4


Survey Highlights• 4th largest pipeline ever recorded: 274 planned hotels with 77,020

rooms under development as at September 2011.• Just a 9% reduction over 2010 levels of rooms development and a 20% fall

compared to 2009, the all-time record year.• 15 chains each declaring more than 1,000 rooms under development,

compared to 23 in 2009. • US chain Marriott again ranked No 1, with an all-time record rooms

pipeline exceeding 10,000 rooms for the first time ever.• Survey canvassed 104 hotels chains active in our region, compared to 80 last

year.• Of these, 45 chains declared future pipelines (+4 serviced apartment chains).• UAE still has the largest country pipeline, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi have the

largest city pipelines.• 98 projects had been delayed by between 1 and 5 years compared to their

original programmes declared to us in 2010.• 58 projects had been ‘put on hold’ or cancelled altogether since the 2010

rankings, accounting for 15,757 potential rooms. • Since the recession started in earnest, back in 2009, we calculate that around

50,000 rooms in total have fallen into this category.


Thanks for listening

Tel +971 3 344 3734Fax +971 4 344 0907

Documents

GCC Hotels Future Pipeline Survey, September 2011 September 14 th , Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Dubai. Presenter: Guy Wilkinson, Viability