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GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hickeen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=5

Lately,solaractivitydecreasingwhilewarming

GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.Hicke

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Obliquity

currently:23.4º

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GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.Hicke

Eccentricity

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

oceanworld.tamu.edu

www.soes.soton.ac.uk/staff/ejr/DarkMed/ch5.html

PrecessioncombineswitheccentricityKeyforclimate:whichhemisphere(NorS)

pointstowardthesunatperihelion

GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Orbital,solarforcing

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GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

ElNiño/SouthernOscillation

GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke

iri.columbia.edu

ElNiño/SouthernOscillation

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GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

ENSOeffectsonglobalclimate

coolphase(=LaNiña) warmphase(=ElNiño)

GlobalClimateChange 11 ProfJ.HickeFosterandRahmstorf,2012

ENSOeffectsonglobalwarming

GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

AtlanticMultidecadal Oscillationandeffectsonhurricanes

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GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.Hickejisao.washington.edu/pdo

PacificDecadalOscillation

GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hicke

PDO’seffectsonUSNorthwestTemperature

green=T,black(red,blue)isPDO

appinsys.com/globalwarming/PDO.htm

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.Hickewww.grida.no

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GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

ContributionsofmajorGHGstowarming

note:longwave,notsolar,radiation!!!

GlobalClimateChange 17 ProfJ.Hicke

GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.Hickewww.globalwarmingart.com/images/7/76/Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png

notethattimeincreasesfromrighttoleft!

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GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

SmallvariationsinCO2 inspace,time

GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicke

IPCCAR5WGI,2013

Contributionoflandusechangeto

radiativeforcingviaalbedochanges(“biogeophysical

effect”)

contrastwith“biogeochemical”(carbon)effect

GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Aerosolplume

brighterfromspacebecauseofhigheralbedo,

morereflectedsolarradiation

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GlobalClimateChange 22 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5WGI,2013

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5WGI,2013

Contributionstoradiativeforcingsince1750

GlobalClimateChange 24 ProfJ.Hicke

IPCCAR5,WGI

Contributionsofnaturaland

anthropogenicforcings inunitsof

temperature

noteyaxesscales!

temperature

factorsdrivingchangesintemperature

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GlobalClimateChange 25 ProfJ.Hicke

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Climatefeedbacks

GlobalClimateChange 26 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5WGI,2013

Cloudsarecomplicated!Lotsofdifferenttypes/heights/thicknesses

GlobalClimateChange 27 ProfJ.Hicke

IPCCAR5WGI,2013

Cloudfeedbacksred:predictedchangesthataremorecertainandpositivefeedback