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Balancing Actions
22
Balancing Responsibilities
Shippers Role
Obliged to provide commercial input and output nominations (forecasts)
No obligation to physically balance portfolio
Incentivised to balance portfolio
Gas Supply Gas demand
NTS Connected Sites
Obliged to provide physical entry profiles (DFN’s)
NTS Connected Sites
Obliged to provide physical exit profiles (OPN’s)
National Grid’s Role – Residual Balancer
Ensure NTS balance is within safe operating limits
NG balancing trade actions at times of forecast imbalance
Cannot ‘instruct’ users
NG neutral to direct costs of system balancing, but
NG incentivised to ensure
Daily change in line pack < 2.8mcm
Impact of actions taken on price is minimised
33
Shipper Balancing Responsibilities
Shippers Role
Obliged to provide commercial input and output nominations to National Grid before the day (forecasts)
Can chose to re-nominate throughout the gas day
Incentivised to ensure nominations / re-nominations are accurate
Incentivised rather than obliged to physically balance portfolio
Gas Supply Gas demand
NTS Connected Sites
Obliged to provide physical entry profiles (DFN’s)
NTS Connected Sites
Obliged to provide physical exit profiles (OPN’s)
4
Projected Closing Linepack v Closing Linepack
4
5
Linepack Target
National Grid are incentivised to keep linepack changes to below 2.8mcm day on day.
The volume of linepack required could differ each day due to:
Changes in Supply and Demand ranges
Maintenance Activities
Pressure requirements at the offtakes of our customers
Operational Risk Envelope
5
66
10th September 2014
Opening Linepack339.9, PCLP 348.8,
Target 340
System closed at 337.2
Supply Reduction: 7.4 Interconnector
Supply Increase: 1.8 Storage
Supply Loss: 4.4 UKCS
Supply Loss: 5.7 UKCS
Supply Increase: 2.0 Storage
Supply Reduction: 2.7 Interconnector
Supply Increase: 2.4 UKCS
Demand Increase: 2.2 Interconnector
PCLP
NGBuy
NGBuy
NGBuy
06:00 18:0016:0014:0012:0010:0008:00 20:00 06:0004:0002:0000:0022:00
349 340 338 337 336 337336332334332334335
337336333335335332348 336335334335340
77
10th September – OCM Trading
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
09/S
ep/2
014
13:2
010
/Sep
/201
4 06
:10
10/S
ep/2
014
07:2
210
/Sep
/201
4 08
:51
10/S
ep/2
014
10:3
210
/Sep
/201
4 10
:55
10/S
ep/2
014
11:5
210
/Sep
/201
4 12
:17
10/S
ep/2
014
12:3
910
/Sep
/201
4 13
:24
10/S
ep/2
014
14:1
610
/Sep
/201
4 14
:47
10/S
ep/2
014
15:4
710
/Sep
/201
4 16
:06
10/S
ep/2
014
16:2
110
/Sep
/201
4 16
:51
10/S
ep/2
014
17:1
4
10/S
ep/2
014
17:4
110
/Sep
/201
4 17
:43
10/S
ep/2
014
17:4
310
/Sep
/201
4 17
:44
10/S
ep/2
014
18:3
410
/Sep
/201
4 18
:34
10/S
ep/2
014
19:0
010
/Sep
/201
4 19
:08
10/S
ep/2
014
19:2
910
/Sep
/201
4 19
:35
10/S
ep/2
014
19:3
510
/Sep
/201
4 19
:59
10/S
ep/2
014
20:1
510
/Sep
/201
4 20
:21
10/S
ep/2
014
20:4
410
/Sep
/201
4 21
:01
10/S
ep/2
014
21:1
510
/Sep
/201
4 21
:33
10/S
ep/2
014
22:2
010
/Sep
/201
4 22
:24
10/S
ep/2
014
22:4
010
/Sep
/201
4 22
:45
10/S
ep/2
014
22:4
710
/Sep
/201
4 22
:54
10/S
ep/2
014
22:5
810
/Sep
/201
4 23
:23
10/S
ep/2
014
23:2
410
/Sep
/201
4 23
:47
10/S
ep/2
014
23:5
911
/Sep
/201
4 00
:14
11/S
ep/2
014
00:1
711
/Sep
/201
4 00
:19
11/S
ep/2
014
00:5
911
/Sep
/201
4 01
:07
11/S
ep/2
014
01:1
911
/Sep
/201
4 01
:32
11/S
ep/2
014
01:4
6
11/S
ep/2
014
02:1
011
/Sep
/201
4 02
:28
Default SMP Buy Default SMP Sell SAP SMP Buy SMP SellShipper Transco
National Grid Gas Trading Performance
88
06:00
332 329 321 322 322 331 330 326 333 333 334 333
334 333
06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00
322 330 330 329 333336 332 329 320 320
14th September 2014
Opening Linepack335.9, PCLP 335.6,
Target 336
Supply Reduction: 3.5 Interconnector
Supply Loss: 3.3 UKCS
Supply Reduction: 8.2 Interconnector
Supply Increase: 2.0 UKCS
Supply Increase: 8.2 Storage
Supply Increase: 2.8 LNG
System closed at 333.0
NGBuy
NGBuy
NGBuy
PCLP
99
14th September – OCM Trading
1010
06:00
307 307 318 319 327 332 333 335 329 329 331 331
330 331
06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00
324 334 335 335 330307 307 313 319 323
15th September 2014
Opening Linepack333.0, PCLP 307.4
Target 336
Supply Increase: 7.0 Storage
Supply Increase: 2.8 LNG
Supply Increase: 3.7 Interconnector
Supply Increase: 4.2 UKCS
Supply Increase : 2.7 Storage
Supply Loss: 6.4 UKCS
Supply Increase: 3.2 Storage
Supply Increase: 3.2 Interconnector
System closed at 330.2
NGBuy
NGBuy
NGBuy
NGBuy
PCLP
1111
15th September – OCM Trading
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14/S
ep/2
014
19:1
2:22
14/S
ep/2
014
20:5
9:46
14/S
ep/2
014
23:1
4:44
15/S
ep/2
014
07:4
3:33
15/S
ep/2
014
10:4
9:07
15/S
ep/2
014
12:0
7:55
15/S
ep/2
014
14:5
1:28
15/S
ep/2
014
15:1
4:45
15/S
ep/2
014
15:5
3:48
15/S
ep/2
014
16:2
1:24
15/S
ep/2
014
18:1
4:29
15/S
ep/2
014
19:0
8:17
15/S
ep/2
014
19:2
1:22
15/S
ep/2
014
19:3
1:23
15/S
ep/2
014
19:5
7:18
15/S
ep/2
014
20:0
6:18
15/S
ep/2
014
20:5
1:17
15/S
ep/2
014
20:5
8:48
15/S
ep/2
014
21:2
8:23
15/S
ep/2
014
22:0
1:36
15/S
ep/2
014
22:0
1:57
15/S
ep/2
014
22:0
9:50
15/S
ep/2
014
22:1
8:00
15/S
ep/2
014
22:4
8:56
15/S
ep/2
014
22:5
3:11
15/S
ep/2
014
23:0
6:46
15/S
ep/2
014
23:0
7:25
15/S
ep/2
014
23:1
0:40
15/S
ep/2
014
23:1
9:00
15/S
ep/2
014
23:5
3:14
15/S
ep/2
014
23:5
4:09
16/S
ep/2
014
00:1
7:14
16/S
ep/2
014
00:1
8:47
16/S
ep/2
014
00:2
4:20
16/S
ep/2
014
00:3
5:28
16/S
ep/2
014
00:3
8:18
16/S
ep/2
014
00:4
6:01
16/S
ep/2
014
00:4
9:07
16/S
ep/2
014
00:5
4:39
16/S
ep/2
014
01:0
2:19
16/S
ep/2
014
01:0
7:33
16/S
ep/2
014
01:0
8:31
16/S
ep/2
014
01:1
2:27
16/S
ep/2
014
01:1
7:54
16/S
ep/2
014
01:3
1:25
16/S
ep/2
014
01:3
6:33
16/S
ep/2
014
01:3
8:42
16/S
ep/2
014
01:4
4:32
16/S
ep/2
014
02:0
0:50
Default SMP Buy Default SMP Sell SAP SMP Buy SMP SellShipper Transco
National Grid Gas Trading Performance
1212
06:00
356 361 359 359 357 359 359 358 355 351 349 347
349 348
06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00
359 359 358 355 353358 361 361 359 359
18th October 2014
Opening Linepack 345.6, PCLP 358.2
Target 344
Supply Increase: 3.0 Norway
System closed at 345.6
Supply Reduction: 2.0 Norway
Supply Reduction: 2.8 Norway
Supply Reduction: 2.5 Norway
Demand Decrease: 2.35 Storage
Demand Increase: 1.2 Interconnector
Supply Reduction: 1.8 UKCS
PCLP
NGSell
NGSell
NGSell
NGSell
NGSell
1313
18th October – OCM Trading
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Interesting Day Gas Day 29th October 2014
15
High level timeline
341
Max LP Swing (16.2 mcm)
40414243444546474849505152535455565758
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
335
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
Price (p/th)Linepack (mcm)
Actual LP PCLP Target LP Opening LP Max LP Swing (16.2 mcm) SMP Buy SMP Sell SAP Buy Trade Sell Trade
Withdrawal Increase:34mcm MRS
Injection Decrease:5.9mcm MRS
Withdrawal Decrease:11.5mcm MRS
Withdrawal Increase: 2.6mcm
MRS
Withdrawal Increase:4.7mcm MRS
Supply loss:5.9mcm UKCS
Withdrawal Increase: 3.11mcm
LRS
Withdrawal Increase: 1.8mcm
MRS
The day opened at 340.7, target set to 342. System
closed at 338.18
16
Storage Physical Flows
17
Shipper ImbalanceTop 10 Shipper Light Imbalance at End of Day Trading (MCM)
Shipper/Hour bar Shipper 1 Shipper 2 Shipper 3 Shipper 4 Shipper 5 Shipper 6 Shipper 7 Shipper 8 Shipper 9 Shipper 10
16:00 -0.16 3.31 -2.07 4.35 0.27 3.10 -0.77 -0.16 -4.93 -0.02
17:00 -0.16 3.31 -4.24 4.35 -0.03 3.66 -4.55 -0.16 -3.40 -0.11
18:00 -12.54 -4.60 0.89 1.58 -0.99 2.71 -0.02 -0.16 -0.14 -0.11
19:00 -10.61 -4.60 1.16 1.21 -0.99 2.37 -0.02 -0.16 -0.14 -0.11
20:00 -9.28 -2.64 1.61 0.68 -0.96 1.87 -1.36 -0.16 -0.14 -0.11
21:00 -11.95 -3.10 0.30 0.69 -1.27 2.38 -0.76 -0.16 -0.14 -0.11
22:00 -9.59 -0.95 -0.10 0.65 -1.66 1.46 -0.29 -0.16 0.00 -0.12
23:00 -9.01 -0.69 -0.14 0.50 -1.59 1.29 -0.26 -0.16 0.00 -0.12
00:00 -6.14 0.68 -0.28 0.47 -1.36 -0.04 -0.23 -0.16 0.00 -0.09
01:00 -5.94 2.58 -1.62 -0.36 -0.57 -0.27 -0.48 -0.16 -0.01 -0.06
02:00 -5.94 -1.25 -0.04 -0.89 -0.58 -0.59 -0.21 -0.16 -0.01 -0.06
03:00 -5.93 -1.31 -0.75 -0.72 -0.35 -0.59 -0.21 -0.16 -0.09 0.00
04:00 -5.92 -1.43 -0.76 -0.66 -0.59 -0.59 -0.21 -0.16 -0.14 -0.13
18
OCM Trading
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28/O
ct/2
014
13:4
5:42
29/O
ct/2
014
06:1
4:52
29/O
ct/2
014
08:2
3:06
29/O
ct/2
014
09:5
8:50
29/O
ct/2
014
10:3
6:14
29/O
ct/2
014
11:3
4:36
29/O
ct/2
014
12:3
0:32
29/O
ct/2
014
14:5
8:43
29/O
ct/2
014
15:5
8:26
29/O
ct/2
014
17:4
0:59
29/O
ct/2
014
18:1
4:46
29/O
ct/2
014
18:3
3:29
29/O
ct/2
014
18:4
9:00
29/O
ct/2
014
19:1
0:30
29/O
ct/2
014
19:2
6:03
29/O
ct/2
014
19:4
0:47
29/O
ct/2
014
19:4
0:49
29/O
ct/2
014
19:4
4:26
29/O
ct/2
014
19:4
5:41
29/O
ct/2
014
20:1
2:01
29/O
ct/2
014
20:1
3:43
29/O
ct/2
014
20:1
7:21
29/O
ct/2
014
20:1
9:58
29/O
ct/2
014
20:2
7:46
29/O
ct/2
014
20:3
8:29
29/O
ct/2
014
20:3
9:22
29/O
ct/2
014
21:0
1:29
29/O
ct/2
014
21:0
6:09
29/O
ct/2
014
21:0
9:59
29/O
ct/2
014
21:2
2:47
29/O
ct/2
014
21:3
1:08
29/O
ct/2
014
21:3
7:40
29/O
ct/2
014
21:4
3:13
29/O
ct/2
014
21:5
8:19
29/O
ct/2
014
22:4
1:36
29/O
ct/2
014
22:4
8:38
29/O
ct/2
014
22:5
8:22
29/O
ct/2
014
23:0
2:04
29/O
ct/2
014
23:0
3:21
29/O
ct/2
014
23:0
4:10
29/O
ct/2
014
23:1
0:06
29/O
ct/2
014
23:1
0:49
29/O
ct/2
014
23:2
4:21
29/O
ct/2
014
23:4
8:27
30/O
ct/2
014
00:0
6:58
30/O
ct/2
014
00:0
7:05
30/O
ct/2
014
00:1
0:05
30/O
ct/2
014
00:2
3:41
30/O
ct/2
014
00:2
4:29
30/O
ct/2
014
00:2
7:07
30/O
ct/2
014
00:3
1:11
30/O
ct/2
014
00:3
9:24
30/O
ct/2
014
01:0
6:47
30/O
ct/2
014
01:2
7:42
30/O
ct/2
014
02:0
9:57
30/O
ct/2
014
02:1
6:32
30/O
ct/2
014
02:2
1:45
30/O
ct/2
014
02:4
2:24
30/O
ct/2
014
03:0
4:50
30/O
ct/2
014
03:3
4:58
Default SMP Buy Default SMP Sell SAP SMP Buy SMP SellShipper Transco
National Grid Gas Trading Performance
