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Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost
EstimationNecessary Ingredients for Project
Success and Affordability
Garry Roedler, ESEP
LM Fellow
INCOSE Founder
IEEE Golden Core Member
Note: This presentation reflects the positions of the presenter and is being given from the perspective of the industry association roles held by the presenter. It does not necessarily reflect the positions held by any specific organization or his employer.
Communication and Program PerformanceStatistics on program failures conclude: Most IT projects are failing.
The predominant reason: Communication breakdown.
The Standish Group CHAOS report
Reasons for project failure:1.Expectation mismatch amongst stakeholders.2.Improper and unclear communication with
stakeholders. Global Project Management – Vote from LinkedInPoor communication is the reason most IT projects fail.
Unrealistic deadlines is another leading cause.Web Poll – Computing Technology Industry Assoc. – 1000 respondents
Communication consistently cited as a top reason for project failure paired with expectations and estimates
Elements of Objective CommunicationLooks for the truth, uses hard data, tries to explain as well as
predict (deterministic)Avoids potential of multiple interpretations or misinterpretation Unambiguous
Clarity of meaning; single interpretation Common vocabulary – words can have multiple meanings
Void of subjectivity Avoids personal bias; keeps out personal values (“value-free”) “Lack of judgment”
Factual Quantitative, over qualitative Focus on cause and effect Predictive – looks for predictability Based on universal laws Validates theory with objective methods; e.g., experiments and
surveys Applies objective research with precise measurement and data
analysisDoes this look like objective communication?http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/0000/900/929/929.strip.zoom.gif
Supports Objective Discussion for Affordability & Other Objectives
Obstacles for Objective CommunicationPsychological factors
E.g., ego, optimism/pessimism, past influences Sociological factors
E.g., culture, peer pressure, social normsStake in the gameLack of information Lack of common experienceLack of common vocabulary
Why Objective Communication is Important in Engineering
Agreement between supplier and acquirer Understanding the needs/requirements Ensuring joint understanding
Team understanding of requirementsInsight to manage risks or make decisions
Not a spectator sport; participative Understanding of decision criteria Using predictive insight from leading indicators
and risk assessmentsIncludes confidence in the information (i.e.,
uncertainty)Progress and status
Example of Ambiguity
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAG39jKi0lI
Semantic AmbiguityThe English language can be ambiguous … some sample newspaper headlines:
• “Lack Of Brains Hinders Research”• “Kids Make Nutritious Snacks”• “Queen Mary Having Bottom Scraped”• “Miners Refuse to Work after Death”• “Police Begin Campaign To Run Down
Jaywalkers”• “Red Tape Holds Up New Bridge”• “Juvenile Court To Try Shooting Defendant”• “Panda Mating Fails; Veterinarian Takes
Over”• “Astronaut Takes Blame For Gas In
Spacecraft”• “Grandmother Of Eight Makes Hole In One”• “Enraged Cow Injures Farmer With Ax”• “NJ Judge to Rule on Nude Beach”
Mic
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Syntactic Ambiguity
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Punctuation can cause very different meanings!
Example of SubjectivitySubjective language includes phrases such as:
Easy-to-use, user-friendlyClose quicklyHigh-speed, medium-sized, low-frequency (high,
medium, low, large, small, …)Best practicesMinimize, maximize, optimize
Subjective terms:Create problems in verification Often lead to Affordability issues
The use of these adjectives allows for multiple interpretations
Example of Potential Numerical Misinterpretation
Option A Option B Option C935
940
945
950
955
960
965
970
Series1
Option A Option B Option C0
100200300400500600700800900
1000
Series1
Image from The World is Flat: http://salyee.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/week-11-infographics/ 10/14/12
Drug company states that a competing drug increases risk of death by 100%.
Using Objective Information to Improve Program Decisions
Aids programs by providing true understanding and insightProvides the facts and quantitative information Focus on cause and effectAllows predictions/estimations – built on historical
data, empirical relationships, accepted principles, …Validated through experiments, surveys, and
calibrationCannot eliminate all subjective, ambiguous
informationAssumptionsDifferences from historical informationEmerging informationHumans are involved
How this Relates to Measurement & Cost/Schedule Estimating
Measurement is at the root of objectivityBasis of factual information Basis of models and estimation
Realize all information is not precise – account by using ranges and distributions, where applicable
Necessary for calibration to improve applicabilityCost/schedule estimation provides a model of a
class of programsBasis of predictions using key variables (drivers) Developed from objective research (i.e., precise
measurement and data analysis)Provides a point of departure from what is known
But … requires verification and validationDoes this look like your program?http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/6000/300/6379/6379.strip.zoom.gif
Where We Are NowLeading Indicators
SE Leading Indicators Guide
System Devel. Perf. Measurement
Technical Measurement
Cost Estimation
COCOMO®
…
Other “COCONuts” and Vendor Models for SW and SE
Standardization & Harmonization
MeasurementProcess Std
Life Cycle Process Stds – 15288, 12207
SEVOCAB
Applications / Other Guidance
PSM CMMI
Where We Are Now
Where We Are Now
Where We Are Now
Where We Are Now
Where We Still Need To GoCost EstimationLeading Indicators
Standardization & Harmonization Applications / Other Guidance
Extensive piloting and usage of SELI and SDPM
Linkage of SELI to results of SE Effectiveness Survey and Risk Models
Leading Indicators for SW
Enhance ability to support trades Account for more of the key
decisions (e.g., Product Lines) Better account for uncertainty
Integrated cost estimation Full system cost estimation
Full life cycle cost estimation
Complete harmonization of System and SW
Continue to migrate to common vocabulary
Revision of PSM guidance to state of standard
Extend PSM for emerging information needs
Determine measures and cost estimation that best applies through life cycle stages and decisions
QUESTIONS?Microsoft Clip Art Image 2007