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Game Rules
• Rule #1: – The number of objects left in the bowl at
the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14)
• Rule #2: – The object of the game is for the players to
acquire as many objects as possible.
• Rule #3:– Players cannot communicate with each
other
Dollar Auction
• I will auction off a dollar in class today
• Rules: – Both the highest bidder and the
previous highest bidder have to pay their bids
International trends• In 1971, Italy’s population - 54
million• Bangladesh had 66 million people in
a smaller area (size of Wisconsin)
• In 2000, Italy’s population stabilized at 57 million
• Bangladesh population doubled to 132 million, and still growing
International trends• Italians now among world’s wealthiest &
best educated.• Bangladeshi children are mostly underfed,
unemployment is high, and literacy rate is low (65 percent are illiterate).
• Bangladeshis emigrants not welcome in India (also overcrowded). ~ ½ size of U.S., almost 4x number of people
• Why don’t Bangladeshis, like Italians, stop self-destructive overpopulation?
Defining Social Dilemmas
• Social Dilemma:– A situation in which individuals profit
from selfishness unless everyone chooses the selfish alternative, in which case everyone loses.
– Individuals must choose between maximizing their personal outcomes and maximizing their group’s outcomes
Bonnie and Clyde Arrested!
• Bonnie and Clyde have been arrested for suspected bank robbery, but the police has little evidence
• The police offered them immunity from prosecution for a confession
• If both stay silent then both get a short sentence on a minor charge
• If both blame other then both receive a moderate sentence
• If only one blames the other then that criminal goes free and the remaining criminal gets a long sentence
Keep silent (Coop)
Blame other (Defect)
Keep silent(Coop)
Blame other(Defect)
1 year
1 year
ClydeClyde
20 Years
20 YearsLife
Parole
Life
Parole
Prisoner’s Dilemma
BonnieBonnie
• This a social dilemma—there is no perfect choice.
• The best outcome occurs if both individuals cooperate and remain quiet.
• But the best individual outcome comes from confessing.
• Many social dilemmas pit individual against group interests.
What’s the Dilemma?Cooperate? Compete?
Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of
the Commons• Garrett Hardin (1968) noted common pastures in New England were often overgrazed.
• Each individual who shared a common pasture faced a dilemma:– Adding another animal could help him/her.– However, if everyone did this, the common pasture would be quickly ruined.
Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of
the Commons•Replenishing Resource
Management Dilemma: a situation in which group members share a renewable resource that will:– Continue to produce benefits if group
members don’t over-harvest, but – Each person profits from harvesting as
much as possible.
If students kept pool in top quarter,
points replenished
rapidly (1 every 6 sec)
2424
1818
1212
00
66
If they took points too fast, replenishment slowed
00
2424
1818
1212
66
Down to 12 sec in second
quarter
18 sec in third quarter
24 sec in 4th quarter
When last point taken,
the game was over
U.S. U.S. populatiopopulation as % of n as % of
world world totaltotal
U.S. U.S. energy energy
use as % use as % of world of world
totaltotal
“Goals” of Social Dilemmas
1. Gain immediate satisfaction
2. Defending ourselves and others
3. Reproduction
1. Gaining Immediate Satisfaction
• Social trapSocial trap situation where individuals or groups are drawn towards immediate rewards that later prove to have unpleasant or lethal consequences
1. Gaining immediate satisfaction
• How can we change the consequences of short-sighted behavior?
• Change the timing of rewards & punishments1. Use alternative technologies to change long-
term negative consequences2. Move future negative consequences into
present3. Add immediate punishments for undesirable
behavior4. Reinforce more desirable alternatives
Will any one strategy work?
Command-and Command-and ControlControl
Type of Type of InterventionIntervention
Market-basedMarket-based
VoluntaristVoluntarist
Motive Motive ActivatedActivated
FearFear Loss of Loss of educational educational benefits for benefits for
families families having too having too
many many childrenchildren
ExampleExample
GreedGreed
Tax rebates Tax rebates for for
consumers consumers who who
purchase purchase solar heating solar heating
panelspanels
Organization Organization appeals for appeals for people to people to
write write Congress in Congress in support of support of wilderness wilderness
preservationpreservationSocial Social
ResponsibilityResponsibility
2. Defending ourselves and others
• Defensive behavior in response to group conflict often has unintended negative consequences
Research Study: Threats• Participants could win/lose $$ by
making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes
• Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent
• Most $$ by cooperating on direct route
The Trucking Game
ACMEStart
ACMEDestination
BOLTDestination
BOLT Start
• Each company has indirect route
• A shared one lane short route
• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route
ACMEStart
The Trucking Game
• Each company has indirect route
• A shared one lane short route
• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route
Start A DestinationA
DestinationB
ACMEDestination
BOLTDestination
BOLT Start
ACMEStart
The Trucking Game
• Each company has indirect route
• A shared one lane short route
• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route
Start A DestinationA
DestinationB
ACMEDestination
BOLTDestination
BOLT Start
Research Study: Threats• Participants could win/lose $$ by making
“truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes
• Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent
• Most $$ by cooperating on direct route• Opponent’s strategy:
– Punitive deterrent severe punishment if blocked
– Nonpunitive deterrent mild punishment, switched back to cooperative
– Turn-the-other-cheek no punishment ever
Ave
rage
Pay
off
Ear
ned
Ave
rage
Pay
off
Ear
ned 12
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
10
8
6
4
2
0
15 trial blocks
Non-punitive deterrentNon-punitive deterrent
Punitive deterrentPunitive deterrent
Turn-the-other-cheekTurn-the-other-cheek
The punitive strategypunitive strategy started out successfully, but over time it made the opponent angry and elicited
costly counter-attacks
Non-punitive Non-punitive deterrentdeterrent is similar to
“Tit-for-Tat” - rewards
cooperation, punishes defection
2. Defending ourselves and others
• Complex thinking in leaders goes down as conflict goes up
• Likelihood of failing at social dilemmas increases
The Dollar Game
• A game in which a group bids for a dollar, but in which second bidder also has to pay.
• Bidders begin seeking easy reward, but end up desperately trying to avoid loss.
• Bids sometimes go as high as $20(Teger, 1980)
• Real world example? – U.S. / U.S.S.R. arms race
The Dollar Game• 1947 - U.S. Sen. Edward
Johnson - “God almighty in his infinite wisdom dropped the A-bomb in our lap”
• 1948 - General Carl Spatz - predicted nukes would lead to “lasting peace”
• 1949 - Russians also blessed with the A-bomb
• 1952 - Americans developed more powerful H-bomb, Russians followed shortly
• 1950s- U.S. military concerned Russians had more nukes, feverishly built B-52 bombers
• 1961 - Americans 600 nuke bombers
Russians 190
• 1964 - Americans 800 ICBMs
Russians 200
• 1969- Americans – 4200 nukes
Russians - 1300
All the other dots All the other dots represent represent
firepower of firepower of world’s nuclear world’s nuclear
weapons by 1981weapons by 1981
Center dot Center dot represents represents
total total firepower of firepower of
all bombs all bombs dropped dropped
during WWIIduring WWIIincluding including
Nagasaki and Nagasaki and HiroshimaHiroshima
Defending ourselves and others
• What can we do to interrupt these dilemma spirals?
• One strategy = GRITGRIT (Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension-reduction)– Publicly challenge the opponent to
match your de-escalations. – Used successfully by Kennedy on Kruschev, and Gorbachev on Reagan.
3. Reproduction
• According to natural selection, the implicit goal is to get more stuff in order to further reproductive ends – (e.g., more kids, kids that survive longer)
• The outcome of this goal may be the root of all major problems facing us today
• “No technical solution can rescue us from the misery of overpopulation. Freedom to breed will bring ruin to all.” – Garrett Hardin
What is the biggest problem facing the world?
OverpopulationOverpopulation
Dwindling Natural Resources Dwindling Natural Resources
Economic ProblemsEconomic Problems
Political and Military ConflictPolitical and Military Conflict
SOCIAL SOCIAL DILEMMASDILEMMAS
Human population
of world (Billions)
6
YEAR
0
5
4
3
2
1
1850 1900 1950 20001800
State of the World
Pop: 132 millionPop: 132 million
What can we do?
1. Recognize social dilemmas2. Resist ineffective interventions (e.g.,
punitive deterrent, turn-other-cheek)3. Education and population control4. Change salient goals (esp. away from
immediate satisfaction)5. Put tradition in its place6. Recognize there are no simple
solutions