Gambling Research Reveals - Issue 4, Volume 8 - April / May 2009

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Poker and artifcial intelligence Dr. Michael Bowling In a ascinating presentation, computer scientist Dr. Michael Bowling provided an over-

view o the challenges involved in developing a computer program that could beat theworlds best poker players in a two-player game. Bowling explained that Holdem pokerprovides a ormidable challenge to arti cial intelligence (AI) researchers because there areliterally billions o possible decision points in poker, the absolute margin o victory overan opponent is vitally important, and luck is involved in some aspects o game play(e.g., the starting cards a player is dealt as well as the subsequent community cards).

Dr. Bowling explained that the Computer Poker Research Group at the University o Alberta has been involved in the development o poker-playing computer programssince 1997. The current generation o AI so tware has been dubbed Polaris. In 2007,as test o Polaris abilities, Bowling arranged or it to take on pro essional playersin the Man-Machine Poker Championship. This involved a series o head-to-head

duplicate matches 1 o Limit Texas Holdem. It managed to score a tie and one victoryover the humansperhaps the rst time a computer program had ever won againstpro essional playersbut Polaris ended up losing the overall our-match series.

The second Man-Machine Poker Championship tookplace one year later (July, 2008) in Las Vegas and pittedPolaris against seven o the worlds highest-rated limit pok-er pro essionals. This time, Polaris emerged victorious inthe overall series with three wins, two losses, and a draw.Bowling credits Polaris victory to a re-programming o the AI that he described as lying to the computer abouthow the game works. Essentially, Polaris became a more

challenging rival by adapting its strategy to one o vedistinct game-play personalities based on what Polarisdetermined to be most e ective against its opponentsplaying style.

Though beating the worlds top limit poker pro essionalswas satis ying, Bowling required con rmation o the e -

ectiveness o Polaris play by evaluating it using statisticalmethodologies 2. To do so, he had to control or the infuence o luck on the outcome o the matches. According to Bowling, Luck is what changes the possible expected outcomeo a starting hand as the betting progresses; skill is involved to see how much less ormore money is lost. Bowling and his team devised several complementary statisticalmeasures 3 which required data on ar ewer hands played to draw statistically signi cantconclusions. A ter these measures were applied to match data rom the 2008 competition,Bowling ound that Polaris match per ormance was perhaps even more impressive thanthe actual results indicated. All three o its wins were statistically signi cant.

In concluding, Bowling noted that poker is a game o imper ect in ormation whichmirrors many real-world scenarios. Research being undertaken by the Computer PokerResearch Group involving Game Theory has numerous applications in situations(e.g., online auctions) where crucial decisions must be made in the absence o keyin ormation about what competitors are doing. A ter all, said Bowling, Game theorysuggests i youre playing correctly, then even i your opponent knows how you play,you wont lose money.

1 In a duplicate match, the samecards are dealt to both human

players and Polaris, but withthe seating reversed.2 Con rmation using existing

methodologies was impossiblebecause none o Polaris matchresults were considered statisticallysigni cant. Data rom at least20,000 separate hands o poker arerequired or results to be statisti-cally signi cant when using moneyas a tool to evaluate poker players.

3 The DIVAT analysis tool as well asa technique known as imaginaryobservation.

Luck is whatchanges the possibleexpected outcome of a starting handas the betting

progresses; skill isinvolved to see howmuch less or moremoney is lost.

Michael Bowling

Rob Williams, con erence presenter

Michael Bowling


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Protective eatures or Swedens online gamblers Jakob JonssonResearcher Jakob Jonsson o Swedens Spelinstitutet provided details about how online

poker is o ered in Sweden and results o investigations examining Swedish Internetpoker players. He explained that the long-established tradition o card playing amongthe Swedes has allowed or a seamless transition to the world o Internet poker. Thecountrys gambling help line, however, reveals that this game is consistently re erenced asa problematic ormat by those experiencing gambling-related di culties. Jonsson notedthat, in contrast to some other jurisdictions o ering online gambling, Swedens state ownedlottery Svenska Spel only permits access to Swedish citizens. Although some Swedishonline poker players are also using international sites, Jonsson said that there is a desireto bring them back home to the Svenska Spel site.

Protective eatures were built into the Svenska Spel poker so tware to encourageSwedish citizens to gamble in a responsible manner. For example, there are mandatory

5-minute breaks every hour during play, requirements that players establish time andspending limits be ore participating, and promotions (e.g., play money ormats, rakebacks, reerolls, etc.) are taboo. Players can use a navigator eature to be continually apprisedo how much time and money theyve spent during gameplay. For individuals concernedabout their gambling behaviour, a sel -test exists which assesses gambling habits todetect any signs o problems. Those in need what Jonsson described as a cool-o periodcan also choose to take advantage o a sel -exclusion option.

As a way o testing the e ectiveness o the suite o Svenska Spel harm-minimiza-tion strategies, Jonsson undertook two studies which involved a series o web ques-tionnaires. Playing habits were explored and measured using the Problem GamblingSeverity Index (PGSI) instrument that was specially modi ed or Internet poker. Data

were collected rom poker players at the Svenska Spel site as well as those individuals whorequented other international poker sites. An analysis o results revealed that there

were higher rates o problem gambling or those people who exclusively played atinternational sites.

In his conclusion, Jonsson indicated that his researchound poker players generally liked the Svenska Spel

responsible gambling eatures. These eatures werealso surprisingly e ective though there was seeming-ly room or improvement. Jonsson said that, Todayten per cent o Swedes gamble on the Internet andgrowth in gambling is nowhere else. He is also certainthat, within ten years, the online ormat will be largerthan the land-based one. Fittingly, Jonsson closed bycommenting that new Swedish poker players nowalmost always start at the Svenska Spel poker site.

Today ten per centof Swedes gambleon the Internet andgrowth in gambling

is nowhere else.Jakob Jonsson

Sarah Nelson, con erence presenter

Martin Sychold, con erence presenter

Jakob Jonsson


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ALbeRTA GAmInG ReseARChInsTITUTe boARd o dIReCToRsDr. Nady el-Guebaly, Chair,

University o CalgaryDr. Jo-Anne Fiske, University

o Lethbridge

Dr. Andre Plourde,University o AlbertaDr. Chris Hosgood,

University o LethbridgeMrs. Sheila Murphy, Public

MemberDr. Erin Gibbs Van Brunschot,

University o CalgaryDr. Renee Elio,

University o Alberta

exeCUTIVe dIReCToRVickii Williams

([email protected])

node CooRdInAToRsUniversity o Alberta:

Dr. Garry Smith([email protected])

University o Calgary:Dr. David Hodgins([email protected])

University o Lethbridge:Dr. Robert Williams([email protected])

InsTITUTe LIbRARIAnRhys Stevens

([email protected])

Your comments and queries are welcomeeither by e - mail : [email protected] : 780.492.2856

Rhys Stevens Writer

Leena Vanhala Editor

Epigrafx Design/Layout

Media queries 780.492.2856

* The Institute is funded by the Albertagovernment through the Alberta LotteryFund.

ISSN 1499-2647AGRI 2009

The development o British Columbias onlinelottery presence Kevin GassKevin Gass, Vice-President o Corporate A airs or the British Columbia Lottery Corpo-

ration (BCLC) presented on the steps his organization took in the development o itsonline gaming presence. The prospect o operating online gambling sites rst caught the

attention o BCLC about six years ago.At that time, it recognized that a pro-li eration o advertising or grey mar-ket (i.e., non-regulated) online gamingsites was occurring. In addition, revenuegenerated rom traditional lottery prod-ucts in British Columbia was projectedto fatten out and likely decline in the

uture1. Gass explained that, Instead

o sticking our head in the sand aboutInternet gambling and pretending itdidnt exist, we looked to Europe wherethey had several additional years o experience.

Approximately ve years ago BCLC launched their PlayNow.Com site to provide onlinelottery games. Gass said that a rationale or this initiative was to re-capture spendingby British Columbians that was fowing to sites in o shore jurisdictions. At present,games available on PlayNow.Com include lotto, 5-minute keno, e-bingo and interactives(i.e., electronic versions o scratch-and-win products that include entertainment

eatures). Additional lottery games have been gradually introduced since the launch o

the site.Public reaction to PlayNow.Com has been positive as evidenced by the act thatthere are now 115,000 registered online players. Access is restricted to residents o British Columbia who are 19 years o age or older. Built into the site are a variety o protective eatures that allow players to set personal weekly spending limits, view real-timeon-screen session and spend logs, review their 52-week account history, and voluntarilysel -exclude2. According to Gass, an un oreseen bene t o the site has been to heightenthe publics perception o trustworthiness when making lottery transactions. Purchasinglottery products online rom BCLC is viewed as greatly reducing opportunities or raudwhen compared to over-the-counter ticket purchases.

Peering into the uture o BCLCs online lottery products, Gass oresees a greater emphasison sports betting, new lottery games, partnerships with the pro essional sports teams(e.g., Vancouver Canucks pro essional ice hockey team), propositional betting, and onlinepoker. He concedes that, rom a purely business view, online products are one o the

ew growth areas available to lottery providers in most jurisdictions. Gass ended hispresentation with the observation that, In Canada, we can choose to regulate, legallyoppose or compete with the o shore sites British Columbia has adopted a strategy o competing with them and the province has encouraged BCLC to do so.

1 Gass stated that traditional ticket lottery revenue in most Canadian jurisdictions comes rom an olderdemographic and there are ewer new or younger lottery participants.

2 Over 200 people have sel -excluded on PlayNow.Com which is a much smaller number than have registeredwith BCLCs casino sel -exclusion program.

Documents

Gambling Research Reveals - Issue 4, Volume 8 - April / May 2009