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Galvin Mobility ProjectReason Foundation
By Adrian Moore, Vice PresidentandRobert W. Poole, Jr., Director of Transportation Studies
Reason Foundationwww.reason.org
Mobility Project: http://www.reason.org/mobility/index.shtml
Galvin Mobility Project
Bob Galvin, Former Chairman of Motorola, Inc.
Took over Motorola in 1959 and built it into a global communications powerhouse before retiring in 1990.
A great believer in change, Bob thinks that congestion will kill our cities unless we start doing things differently.
The Galvin Mobility Project is a major initiative to develop and implement a framework for removing congestion as an obstacle to mobility in American cities.
Project Advisory Board
Al Appleton, Regional Plan Assoc. Rob Atkinson, ITIF Peggy Catlin, Colorado DOTRobert Cervero, UC Berkeley Randall Crane, UCLA Elizabeth Deakin, UC BerkeleyMax Donath, University of Minnesota Robert Dunphy, Urban Land Institute James Ely, IBTTADavid Fleming, Latham & Watkins, LLP David Gillen, Univ. of British Columbia Genevieve Giuliano, USCPeter Gordon, USC Gary Groat, Fluor David Hartgen, UNC Charlotte Patrick D. Jones, IBTTATony Kane, AASHTO Steve Lockwood, PB Consult Wayne Lusvardi, Valuation ConsultantJim March, FHWA Joel Marcuson, Jacobs Engineering
Nancy McGuckin, ConsultantMichael D. Meyer, Georgia Tech James Moore, USC John Njord, Utah DOTKen Orski, Innovation Briefs Mary Peters, Former FHWA Director Alan Pisarski, ConsultantSteve Pontell, LaJolla Institute Peter Rahn, Missouri DOT Jon Ramirez, Cofiroute USADarrin Roth, American Trucking Assoc. Gabriel Roth, Transport Economist Tom Rubin, ConsultantPhillip Russell, TxDOT Peter Samuel, Transportation ConsultantWilliam Simon, Jr., William E. Simon & Sons, LLC Ken Small, UC Irvine Pravin Varaiya, UC BerkeleyChristopher Voyce, Macquarie Chip White, Georgia Tech Geoff Yarema, Nossaman
Project Products
1. A series of studies on vital issues regarding mobility;
2. Detailed proposals for congestion reduction in individual cities across the United States, including Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, McAllen (TX), and Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers (FL);
3. A comprehensive policy recommendation for urban mobility (Fall 2006);
4. A book, The Road More Traveled, by Samuel Staley and Ted Balaker, explaining how improved mobility can revitalize America’s cities.
Congestion
Will get a lot worse, unless we change course.
A Week spent in Traffic (1982)
LA
A Week spent in traffic (2003)
LA
San Francisco
DC
Atlanta
Houston
Dallas
ChicagoDetroit
Riverside
Orlando
San Jose
San Diego
Miami
Boston
Denver
Austin
BaltimoreNew York
Phoenix
Seattle
Tampa
Minneapolis-St. Paul
CharlotteLouisville
Sacramento
LA
How Bad Will It Be by 2030? Congested lane-miles up 50% 11 metro areas will have worse congestion than
today’s Los Angeles (TTI=1.75) Atlanta Baltimore Chicago Denver Las Vegas Miami Minneapolis/St. Paul San Francisco Bay Area Seattle Washington, DC
Congestion hurts all kinds of businesses
Delivery—from pizza to parcels Wasted gas Paying people to sit in
traffic Cement business
Sat deliveries. Pay overtime
Congestion hurts all kinds of businesses
Blue collar
Plumber Landscaper Air conditioning
repairman
Congestion hurts all kinds of businesses
White collar Real Estate Agent Salesman
Staffing headaches High Tech Accounting
Congestion Shrinks the Pie
Your Job ChoicesYour Customers
Your Potential Partner
Mobility Boosts Business
Think agglomeration economies!
Study of 22 French cities.
When travel speeds increased 10 %
Labor market increased 15%
Productivity up 3%
Employers gained access to better employees, more customers.
(Remy Proud’homme)
Congestion and Life
Frustrated drivers do stupid things
Drive erratically Tailgate Force their way into
turns Secondary accidents
Congestion slows emergency care
67,000 deaths from “savable” cardiac arrest.
6 min.
Not just ambulances, not just heart attacks
Congestion isn’t gravity.
Lots More Driving, Not So Much More Road
82%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
VMT
Hwy LaneMiles
Congestion is Directly Related to Roadway Capacity vs. Demand.
Metro area Person Hours of Delay/Peak Traveler
Freeway Lane-Miles/ 1000 Daily
VMT
Los Angeles 136 43San Francisco 92 49Washington, DC 84 55Seattle 82 57Houston 75 65
Salt Lake City 20 78Pittsburgh 15 107Oklahoma City 12 83Rochester 8 91
More Capacity = Less Congestion
TTI Data and other sources show that adding capacity reduces congestion
Not sustainable unless capacity is well managed, also. . .
SOV remains and WILL remain, the overwhelming choice: Only SOV and Telecommute have increased market share in last decade.
Despite major investment in HOV and transit:Carpool to work: 11.2% in 2000 vs. 13.4% in 1990Transit to work: 4.73% in 2000 vs 5.27% in 1990
The 10 Most Anti-Highway Metro Areas
Metro area LRTP$ Hwy$ %HwyBoston $48.3B $4.5B 9%San Jose 8.5 1.1 13%Salt Lake City 23.0 3.2 14%Charlotte 7.6 1.2 16%New York 327.8 78.7 24%San Diego 32.2 8.1 25%Miami 19.3 6.0 31%San Francisco 118.0 42.0 36%Philadelphia 57.4 21.9 38%Washington, DC 93.3 36.9 40%
The Next 10 Metro Areas
Metro area LRTP$ Hwy$ %HwyLos Angeles $115.4B $48.5B 42%Seattle 101.6 49.4 49%Baltimore 25.5 13.2 52%Chicago 61.0 33.5 55%Atlanta 53.0 29.6 56%Houston 77.3 46.7 60%Denver 87.8 53.9 61%San Antonio 10.5 6.5 62%Mpls/St Paul 8.8 5.6 64%Dallas/Ft Worth 45.1 30.6 68%
Adding Capacity to Kill LOS F: First Mobility Project Study
• Total cost over 25 years is a bit over $21B/year, mostly in larger urban areas.• This averages 28% of what MPOs already plan to spend on transportation.• Average cost per commuter trip is 30-60 cents in most cities.• Time saved is worth several times as much as cost/trip.
One Reason We Aren’t Building Much: Major Funding Shortfall
2002 FHWA Conditions and Performance Report Found Annual capital spending: $68 billion Investment needed to maintain performance:
$119 billion
Urban expressway lane--$5-10m/lane mile Elevated lanes--$15-30m/lane mile Costs to build, operate, maintain--19-90
cents/mile, gas tax 2-3 cents/mile
How to Fit In More Capacity
Ever-wider freeways
not the best approach. Find new ROW for
smaller addition of
specialized lanes (cars, trucks) Add capacity within existing ROW (build
upward) Add missing links by tunneling.
HOT Lanes
Variable pricing Keeps traffic moving 65mph vs 20mph
Electronic Toll Collection
Popular
Equitable
+ High Quality Transit
Variable pricing can give bus riders the unthinkable—reliable travel.
Priced lanes are the “virtual” equivalent of exclusive bus lanes, but most of the vehicles are cars that pay tolls.
Houston Katy project: 25% for transit and super-HOVs
= VEB (Virtual Exclusive Busway)
Something for everyone.
Transit users get better
service. Motorists get a free flowing escape route.
Local govts get new funding source.
Bottom Line
1. Building a case for policy makers to take congestion far more seriously.
2. Good new research on capabilities, costs, innovations, methods, constraints, and how to overcome them.
3. Illustration with detailed proposals for congestion reduction in individual cities, including Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, McAllen (TX), and Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers (FL).
4. Work on institutional changes and implementation
Research Studies
Why Mobility Matters: A much more detailed look at the costs of congestion than the TTI cost figures, and at the benefits of mobility (Ted Balaker).
Adding Capacity to Metro Areas: A calculation of the capacity needed to be added in the 403 metro areas by 2030 to eliminate LOS F congestion, the costs of doing so, and the benefits (David Hartgen, UNC Charlotte)
Likable Roads--Innovative Highway Design Concepts: Ideas and innovation in highway and arterial designs to make new capacity more efficient and feasible in urban settings and more acceptable to the communities they traverse (Peter Samuel)
The Demographics of Cities & Travel: A new analysis of changing urban demographics and lifestyle and job trends are influencing travel behavior and the implications for transportation planning (Joel Kotkin and William Frey)
Congestion Relief Toolbox: A plain-English guide to existing congestion relief tools that are underutilized by most metro areas (Ted Balaker and Adam Summers)
Research Studies
Mass Transit's Role in Relieving Congestion: An examination of what conditions and strategies make transit more or less able to help reduce congestion (Tom Rubin)
Congestion Reduction and Policy Change in Texas: A report on what lessons can be learned from the process Texas decision-makers recently went through to win support for a comprehensive congestion mitigation strategy at the state and metropolitan level (Wendell Cox and Alan Pisarski)
Land Use Impacts on Traffic Congestion: A plain-English guide to what we know about the effects of commercial and residential land use on transportation mode choice, particularly whether changes in land use, by increasing density or mixing commercial and residential uses, can significantly influence decisions about whether people drive or use another mode (UC Irvine's Marlon Boarnet and UCLA's Randall Crane, co-authors of Travel by Design)
Systems and Operations Management to Manage Congestion: A framework for a performance-based approach to transportation systems operations and management.
Research Studies
And studies on:
•Measuring the Economic Costs of Congestion
•Measuring the Social Costs of Congestion
•PPP’s and Toll-based Financing of Projects
•Air Quality Impacts of Adding Urban Road Capacity
•A Better Understanding of Non-Work Travel
•A Framework for Urban Corridor Design and Context Sensitivity
•Innovations in Environmental Mitigation of New Capacity
•Where the Transportation Planning Process has Gone Astray and How to Fix It
Questions?
Dr. Adrian Moore
Robert Poole
www.reason.org/mobility
