FY12 Financial Update Draft - 5-10-11 (5) [Read-Only]

1

FINANCIAL UPDATE

Board of Supervisors May 10, 2011

2

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

Part I– State and National Economic Outlook and Update; State and Federal Budget Impacts

Part II– Financial Plan Update

Part III - Discussion

3

PART I – STATE AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND BUDGET IMPACTS UPDATE

4

STATE AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

5

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

National Economy and OutlookGDP

Employment

Outlook

6


National Economy - CurrentFinancial Crisis Averted

Recession Ended

Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending

Continuing Drags on Growth

7


US REAL GDP % Change Annualized

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

8


National Outlook – Near TermContinuing Drags on Economy

International Issues

US Domestic Demand

Continuing Uncertainty

Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending

End of Quantitative Easing

9


National Outlook – Long TermRisks to US Competitiveness

Labor Force Skills

Federal Deficits

Tax Levels

Asian Growth and Development

Governance & Culture

10

STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Arizona Economy and OutlookGDP

Employment

Outlook

11


Arizona Economy - CurrentSlow National Improvement

Tourism Recovering

Slow Consumer Spending Recovery

Continuing Housing Drag

12


AZ GDP Amounts ($ millions)

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Constructio

All I d t i

Manufacturing

13


Arizona Employment (000's)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total

Construction

Private

14


Arizona Outlook – Near TermContinuing Drags on Economy

US Domestic Demand

Continuing Uncertainty – Indecision

Continuing Housing Drag

Slow Consumer Spending Recovery

15


Arizona Outlook – Long TermRisks to AZ Competitiveness

Labor Force Skills

Tax and Regulatory Structures

California’s Decline

Asian Growth and Development

16

COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Coconino Economy and OutlookEmployment

Outlook

Opportunities

17


Coconino Employment (000's)

50

55

60

65

70

75

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*0

2

4

6

8

10

Total

Construction

18


Coconino County Outlook Linked to Arizona’s Prospects

Satellite to Phoenix Metro

Fundamentally Less Volatile

Strong Fundamentals – With Risks

19


County Outlook – Near TermGrowth from “New Normal” Base

Potential for Reliable Trends

Likely Returning to 90’s Pattern

More Uncertainty than Certainty

20


County Outlook –Long TermStrong Fundamentals

Location

Quality of Life

But, With RisksLabor Force Skills

Business Climate – Tax / Regulation

21


Coconino County Opportunities National Caliber University

Desirable Location

Effective Governments

22


Alliance Tax Study Review of Combined Local Taxes

Foundation for Discussions

Foundation for Decisions

Community Priorities

23

STATE AND FEDERAL BUDGET IMPACTS

24

FY 2012 BUDGET

AZ Legislature and Governor Passed Budget Making $1.1 Billion in Cuts

Federal Assistance and Maintenance of Efforts Protection Eliminated Reduced Amount of Individuals on AHCCS Rolls

K-12, Universities, Community Colleges Impacted

25

FY 2012 BUDGET IMPACTS

Initial Budget Passed by the Senate Included: Shift of Prisoners

HURF Shifts (Shift to DPS/Shift to MVD)

Fill the Gap Sweeps

Final Budget Passed Signed by the Governor Included: $93 million in Cuts to Counties

26

FY 2012 STATE BUDGET

$1,837,013$93.40 million(Includes items not mentioned above)

FY 2012 Grand Total

$50,405$7.0 million50% of Sexually Violent Persons Costs In State Hospital

$235,000 (Based on FY 09 and FY 10 State Funding)

N / ALake Enforcement / Boating Safety Fund

$65,594$1.3 millionReduce State Share of JP Salaries

$317,383$5.17 million100% of Rural Restoration to Competency Costs in State Hospital

$550,035$7.6 millionCounty Assistance Fund 10% Reduction*

$618,596$20.9 millionHURF

Coconino County CostTotal Statewide Impact to Counties

27

FY 2013/FY 2014

Deficit Projected at $612 Million for FY 2013

FY 2014 - Deficit Projected at $1.12 Billion End of Statewide Sales Tax

Unclear on How State Recovery Will Impact Deficit for FY 2014

Unclear How State Will Address Deficits for FY 2013 and FY 2014

28

BUDGET THREATS

State Shared Revenue Diversion

Shift of State Prisoners

Forced Fund Transfers ALTCS, VLT, HURF, etc.

Secondary Property Tax Caps Public Health, Library, Flood Control

Shift of State Programs

29

FEDERAL ISSUES

Congress Passed Continuing Resolution for the Rest of Fiscal Year

Budget Resolution for FY 2012 and Beyond Unknown Impacts of Medicaid Changes on the

State of Arizona and Impact on Counties

30

Federal Issues

Payment in Lieu of Taxes Fully Funded for FY 2012 Full Funding Expires September 30, 2012

Unknown Cuts in the FY 2012 Budget Cuts to Community Services Block Grants,

Department of Justice Grants, Community Development Block Grants, Workforce Investment Funding

31

SECURE RURAL SCHOOLS

SRS Reauthorization Expires September 30, 2011 County Working with NACo and Partnership for

Rural America on Reauthorization President’s Budget for FY 2012 includes a

reauthorization of Secure Rural Schools. The President’s budget for fiscal year 2012 proposes a

five year extension of SRS, calling for 2012 to be funded at same level as 2011 and then ramping down payments over the next four years (decrease of 20% in 2013, 10% in 2014, 25% in 2015 and a final 25% in 2016).

32

SECURE RURAL SCHOOLS

House Republicans, led by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, have proposed a budget that establishes a reserve fund for Secure Rural Schools and PILT, as long as such funding does not increase the federal deficit;

Congressional leaders from throughout the country have voiced their support for SRS, including over 25 House members and members of Arizona’s Congressional delegation who called for a ten-year renewal.

33

PART II – FINANCIAL PLAN UPDATE

34

CONCEPTUAL LONG-TERM PLAN TO ADDRESS NEEDS

Global View

Overlapping Needs; All Pieces Need to Go Together

Consider Individual Areas in Larger Picture

Con in One Area May Be Pro/Positive Overall

Overview

35

CONSIDERATIONS

Community Member’s Requests for Plan That Addresses All Needs (not added incrementally) Political Environment & Elections Partnerships With Other Agencies &

Organizations (Alliance for 21st Century) Economic Environment – Local, State and

National

36

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

Community Tax Capacity Alliance Partnership Sponsoring Study

Tax Capacity of Citizenry

Declining Assessed Values Impact on Secondary Taxes

Incremental Tax Increases vs Overall Long Term Multi-Year Plan

37

FINANCIAL PLAN FOUNDATION KEY ELEMENTS

10 Year Plans for All Major Funds

Recessionary Revenue Model

Align Expenditures to Available Revenues

Prioritize County-Wide Mission Critical Areas• Personnel and Operational Infrastructure

Match Critical Programs to Highly Reliable Revenues to Protect Essential Services

Link One-Time, Deferrable Spending to Less Reliable Revenue

Maintain Adequate Reserves including Revenue Smoothing Reserve

Long Term PerspectiveFinancial Independence – Develop New Revenue Sources

Avoid Dependency on Temporary/Cyclical Revenues

Seek Relief from Mandates

Prudent Growth in Programs, FTEs and Recurring Expenditures

Continuous Improvement and ManagementCost containment opportunities through preventative efforts, efficiencies and use of technology

Sustainability

Emphasis on Essential Programs and People

Strategic Budget Process• Prioritize Core/Essential Services & Programs

• Allocate Resources based on Priorities

• Evaluate Mandates/Legally Required Programs

3 Prong Approach to Address Economic Impacts, Funding Shortfalls & Cost Shifts • Review and Reduce Expenditures and Service Levels

• Strategic Use of Reserves

• Develop Additional Revenue

38

THE GREAT RECESSION:WHAT WORKED?

Financial Plan Instrumental in County’s Ability to Weather the Impacts of Downturn

Reserves Available to Smooth Revenue

Emergency Reserves for 2010 & 2011 Emergencies

Recessionary Revenue Model (Lesson Learned)

Benefit but Now Must Adjust to “New Normal”

3 Prong Approach Compensation Plan Components Implemented

Resulted in Lower Turnover, Improved Retention

39

THE GREAT RECESSION:THINGS PUT ON HOLD

Compensation Plan – Implementation of Next Phases

Facilities Master Plan

Information Technology Strategic Plan

Major Capital Projects and Purchases

No New Programs and/or Services

40

LESSONS LEARNED: MAJOR REVENUE FORECASTING

$7,000,000$9,000,000

$11,000,000$13,000,000$15,000,000$17,000,000$19,000,000

FY95

FY97

FY99

FY01

FY03

FY05

FY07

FY09

FY11

FY13

FY15

FY17

FY19

A B C Actual Population + CPI Projected

Pop + CPI = 3.95%

Actual = 4.18%

Pop + CPI = 4.37%

Actual = 5.71%

Pop + CPI = 4.35%

Actual = -6.96%

3.95%

84%

85%

41

LESSONS LEARNED: MAJOR EXPENDITURE BUDGETING

Traditional Budgeting

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

Program A Program B Program C Total

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

•Guaranteed base + incremental increases

•Operating costs increased with no change in service levels

•Overall budget increases

•Prioritization of services could result in some program increases and some decreases

•Service level changes needed

•Overall budget increases unsustainable

New Normal

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

Program A Program B Program C Total

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

42

EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT TRENDS

Major Revenues – Signs of Improvement Year Over Year But Still Some Uncertainty in Short Term Continuing Cuts/Cost Shifts From State and

Feds To Pass Deficits To Local Gov’ts Health Insurance & Retirement Contribution

Increases (expenditure growth % higher than revenue growth %)

Increasingly Competitive Labor Market Declining Assessed Values

43

WHAT CHALLENGES DO WE FACE?

“Existing, ongoing (recurring) budget areas that are under funding pressure eg: HURF New, ongoing (recurring) program area that

will require funding eg: Restoration to Compentency Existing, one time budget areas that are

under funding pressure eg: Flood Control New one time, program area that will

require funding eg: Assessor Property Valuation System (Tyler Software Purchase)

44

CURRENT FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT

Leakage – State and Federal Cuts, Sweeps and Shifts

Increased Demand for Services State - Transparency Requirements

Federal – Health Care Reform Requirements - W-2 Health Care Coverage Reporting

New “Reset” Economy

Increasingly Competitive Labor Market Challenges in Replacing/Filling Positions

45

CURRENT FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT

Grant Funding More Competitive vs Specific Allotments (eg. Health, Emergency Services)

State and Federal Deficits – Solutions Will Impact Local Government

Expenditure Growth Faster than Revenue Growth – Ongoing in All Funds Current Impacts Can Accelerate

46

JAIL DISTRICT EXAMPLE

$10,000,000$11,000,000$12,000,000$13,000,000$14,000,000$15,000,000$16,000,000$17,000,000$18,000,000$19,000,000$20,000,000

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Total Revenues Total Expenditures

Tax

Increase

Prisoner

Shift

A

B

A: Debt retired, expenditure decrease

B: Facility expansion

47

AREAS UNDER FUNDING PRESSURE

MAJOR FUNDS

General Fund

HURF – Public Works

County Parks and Open Space – Parks & Recreation

Flood Control

Public Health Services District

Jail District

48

AREAS UNDER FUNDING PRESSURE

MISSION CRITICAL

OPERATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Compensation Plan

Facilities Repair and Replacement

Information Technology Repair and Replacement

49

MAJOR FUND: GENERAL

Short and Long Term Concerns Budget Cuts Past 2 Years

Based more on available capacity than strategic program changes many not sustainable and could be reinstated?

Program Service Delivery Impacted

R & R Projects Postponed

CPOS expiration; shortfall in operations and maintenance staff funding in FY13

State Funding Cuts & Shifts; Federal Impacts of SRS and PILT Full Funding Reauthorizations

50

MAJOR FUND: HIGHWAY USERS REVENUE - PUBLIC WORKS

Short and Long Term Concerns Highway Funding (HURF, SRS, VLT, Cost Share

Contracts) All At Risk

Service Levels Will Be Impacted Likely Service Reductions Needed

Evaluate Discretionary Non-Mandated Programs

Some Current Service Levels Inconsistent

Service Levels Not Maintained - eg. Roads Deterioration Due to Lack of Maintenance

Replacement Required Earlier When Not Maintained

51

MAJOR FUND: COUNTY PARKS AND OPEN SPACE - PARKS AND RECREATION

Short and Long Term Concerns CPOS Funding Expires in September, 2014

(FY15) CPOS Funding Operations and Maintenance

Positions; $3M exhausted in FY12 Current Parks Maintained With “One-Time”

Funding Addition of Parks and Open Space has

Increased Operating and Maintenance Costs

52

MAJOR FUND: FLOOD CONTROL

Short and Long Term Concerns Unfunded Response to Annual Ongoing Summer

Flooding Recurring Cost of Safety, Property Protection and

Debris Removal Mitigation Projects – Federal and State Grant Funds

Require Cost Share; Very Limited Funding County-Wide Construction Projects – Limited Funding

for Many Needs Adequate Funding Level Not Known – Project

Identification Process in Progress Reimbursement Basis for Response & Mitigation Costs

53

MAJOR FUND: PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT

Short and Long Term Concerns

Declining assessed value (full cash) impacts revenue (secondary tax)

State Mandated Costs Will Continue to Increase County % of Cost Share and Usage Likely to Increase

Expenditure Growth Exceeds Revenue Growth

Grant Revenue – Grants Becoming Competitive

Federal/State Budget cuts/cost shifts/sweeps

54

MAJOR FUND: JAIL DISTRICT


Department of Corrections Prisoner Shift Facility Capacity

Loss of Bed Rental Revenue

Expenditure Growth Faster Than Revenue Growth

No Permanent Revenue Fixes

55

MISSION CRITICAL: COMPENSATION


No Merit Increases In 3 Years to Help Balance Budget

41% of Positions Under Market; Some 30% Below

HAY Study Identified Positions Needing Reclassification– Currently No Funding To Correct

Consequence of Not Funding = Increase In Turnover Costs

Impacts All Funds

56

MISSION CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: FACILITIES

Short and Long Term Concerns Status Quo Option Results in Higher Cost in

General Fund Assets Continue to Deteriorate; Expensive Failures

Possible Scenario #2 with Information Technology Strategic

Plan Compliments Bonds Issued, Tax In Place and Construction – 2 years

after Voter Approval

Higher Turnover Cost and Lower Morale Impacts All Funds

57

MISSION CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Short and Long Term Concerns Technology Is Essential To Everyday Work Major Computer Replacement Programs – Underfunded Personal Computers and Servers

Network and Smartphones County-Wide Licensing Compliance for existing software

applications Enterprise Systems Optimizing Technology Use – Video/Teleconferencing for

Training, Meetings Impacts All Funds

58

MAJOR FUND 10 YEAR PLAN GRAPHS

PHSD

$9,000,000$9,500,000

$10,000,000$10,500,000$11,000,000$11,500,000$12,000,000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21


HURF

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021


Fund balance deficit

Jail District

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

$18,000,000

$20,000,000

$22,000,000

$24,000,000



General Fund

$50,000,000

$55,000,000

$60,000,000

$65,000,000

$70,000,000

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021


59

MAJOR FUND 10 YEAR PLAN GRAPHS

CPOS

$-$1,000,000$2,000,000$3,000,000$4,000,000$5,000,000$6,000,000$7,000,000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Total Revenue Total Uses of Funds

$33 million collected

Flood Control

$-

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000



Mitigation match unknown

60

COMBINED 10 YEAR PLANS

5-Year Fund Balance Projections

$-

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

HURF

General Fund

CPOS

Flood Control

PHSD

Jail

HURF: Fund balance deficit in FY16

General Fund: Spend unreserved fund balance; no R&R or ITSP

CPOS: Collect $33 million by FY14

Flood Control: Fund balance deficit in FY15???

61

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

62

NEW TIMES = CHANGE APPROACH

Costs in All County Funds Increase Over Time Expenditures Grow Faster than Revenues

Status Quo Does Not Address Issues Need to Change How We Do Business (Services Provided

and Level of Services)

Normal Revenue Growth Not Enough to Sustain Current Service and Program Levels and Needs

Only Increasing Tax Revenue Will Not Solve Problems

In Future, Cannot Meet All Needs

63

CRITICAL DECISIONS NEEDED

Prioritize Core County Services & Staffing and Set Appropriate Service Level (level of service in programs) Based On: Available Future Resources

AND

Possible New Revenue Sources Based on Essential County Programs

AND

Mandate Re-evaluation – Legislative and Self Imposed

64

CONSIDERATION GOING FORWARD: ESSENTIAL COUNTY PROGRAM FOCUS

Public Safety

Public Health

Courts and Criminal Justice

Roads

Government Support Services: Assessor Treasurer Recorder County Attorney

Focus Across All Programs and Funds:

Maintain Current Assets

Cost Efficiency Into the Future, not Short-Sighted “Windfalls”

65

CONSIDERATIONS GOING FORWARD

Workforce Challenges

Competitive Compensation Plan

Proactive approach as labor market recovers; not reactionary; learn from past

Maintain a Current Compensation Plan Reduce FTEs As Needed to Fund Adjustment

Employee Training

Tools and Workspace

66

CONSIDERATIONS GOING FORWARD

Workforce Challenges – Continued

Retention and Recruitment

Cost of Turnover is High – Keep Employees Who Are Trained and Performing Well

Be Competitive in the Market – Ability to Recruit

67

SOLUTIONS: TOOLS IN OUR TOOLBOX

3 Prong Approach Revenue Opportunities

Reduce Programs/Services Costs

Reserves

Legislative Relief (Adds to 3 Prong Approach)Mandates and Required Programs

Revenue Opportunities

68

REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES

Prong #1

69

REVENUE INCREASE EXAMPLES

Recurring:1/10th Cent Sales Tax $2.4 million per year$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per year (Depends on District

Boundaries)

One-Time:$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per yr = about $12M Bond, 10 yrs$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per yr = about $25M Bond, 20 yrs

70

REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES

HANDOUT #1 – Revenue Options by Fund and Mission Critical Area

71

OTHER CONSTRAINTS

Timing Issues Tax Increases – November Election in Even Years Other Elections Community Tax Capacity – Other Jurisdictions

Tax Rate or amount limits Rates Subject to Caps and Limits

Use limitations (flexibility) Special Districts Debt Issues – Secondary Property Tax for Capital

Only

72

REDUCE PROGRAMS AND SERVICE COSTS

Prong #2

73

SERVICE/PROGRAM REDUCTIONS

Core Services Identified Based on Priority/Essential Function in Each Major Fund

Service Cuts to Those Major Funds Under Pressure

Determine Discretionary Programs Reduce or Eliminate Consideration of Private Sector Alternatives Evaluate Subsidies

Level of Service for Mandates Determine Highest Priorities – Citizens, Board of

Supervisors, County Manager, Elected Officials/Appointed Directors

74

SERVICE/PROGRAM REDUCTIONS

Cost Reductions Must Be a Part of The Solutions

Some Major Revenue Funds Do Not Have Additional Options

Options Are Limited and/or Not Adequate

Example: General Fund Has More Needs than Resources and Limited Readily Available Revenue Options Use of General Fund Resources Not Restricted

Other Funds Seek Backfill Funding from General Fund

75

USE OF RESERVES

Prong #3

76

USE OF RESERVES

Revenue Smoothing Reserves Available

Reserves Available to Draw on Until “New Reality”Picture Clearer

Many Unknowns Until Return to “Normal” May Never Return to “Normal”

Took Time to Build; Used in Past 3 Years 10 Years to Build/Save; Need to Replenish

Use in FY 12 To Get To Decision Points Provide Time to Follow Action Plan Steps

77

USE OF RESERVES

HURF: Reserves through FY14 General Fund: (Non-Contingency) Reserves to

Backfill Across All County Funds Flood Control: Reserves through FY14? Revolving Loan Fund $2 mil balance could be used

for road related capital

PHSD & Jail District: Spending down, but reserves available through 10-year projection period

78

LEGISLATIVE RELIEF

Can Add to 3 Prong Approach by

Authorizing Revenue Opportunities

Lifting Mandates for Programs, Services, Service Levels

Allowing Flexibility in Use of Revenues

Flexibility in Service Delivery of Required Programs

79

CONCEPTUAL EXAMPLE

LONG TERM STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR FUTURE

80

PLAN KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Consistent Application of Foundations Previously Adopted and Implemented Constrained Areas of Needs That Are Part of the

Core Service Prioritized Core Services Needed to Maintain

Capacity Without Focusing on “Urgent” or “Immediate Needs” First Aligned Solutions System (County)-Wide Order of Events Based on “Naturally Occurring

Dates”

81

STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:NEXT STEPS

Step One: Prioritization of Long-Term Core Programs & Preferred Solutions (regardless of timing) Include Citizens, Board of Supervisors, County

Manager and Leadership Team in Process to Determine Core Programs Preferred Solutions Include Priority to Core

Programs, Cuts/Reductions, Funding Sources and Legislative Relief

82

STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:NEXT STEPS

Step Two: Translating Priorities to Annual Budgets and 10 Year Financial Plans Continual Process – Can’t Fix Everything in One Year How to Time Decisions - Considerations Phasing Election Dates Legislative Sessions Public Outreach

Step Three: Developing Timeline/Schedule to Implement Preferred Solutions

83

STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP ONE

PRIORITIZATION & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS ROAD MAP KEY ELEMENTS

Board of Supervisors, County Manager, Leadership Team Evaluation & Prioritization of Programs/Services and Service Levels Departments & County Manager Board of Supervisors & Leadership Team Retreat Board of Supervisors & County Manager Retreat

Citizen Outreach & Input

Draft of Detailed Road Map In Progress

84

STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP TWO

TRANSLATING PRIORITIES AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS INTO ANNUAL BUDGET ROAD MAP

KEY ELEMENTS

Decisions from Step One Used to Update Financial Plan (10 Year)

Use Strategic/Annual Budget Process Integrate Timeline Components Evaluate Annually, Adjust as Needed

Draft of Detailed Road Map In Progress

85

STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP THREE

TIMELINE/SCHEDULE TO IMPLEMENT PRIORITIES & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS KEY ELEMENTS

Layout Priorities and Preferred Solutions by Fiscal Year – Timing of Solutions CPOS Expires 9/2014 Elections

Schedule Steps (Action Plans) Leading Up To Implementation of Each Preferred Solution

Draft of Detailed Timeline/Schedule In Progress

86

DISCUSSION

Questions?

Thoughts, Concerns, Feedback

Requests for Additional Information and/or Clarifications

87

NEXT STEPS

Budget Meetings begin May 23rd

Update on FY11 Financial Status FY12 Budget Outlook Review Highlights of Long Term Strategic

Recovery Plan Presentation of Detailed Road Maps and

Timeline/Schedule for Strategic Recovery Plan

Meetings with Departments May 24-27th Wrap up Budget Meetings on May 31st

88

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

County Financial Planning Team Members: County Manager’s Office Steve Peru, County Manager Mike Townsend, Deputy County Manager Larry Dannenfeldt, Deputy County Manager Joanne Keene, Government Relations Director Lucinda Andreani, Special Initiatives Director Alan Maguire, Consultant

Human Resources – Allison Eckert, Director

Finance – Sandi Schulz, Director Finance - Siri Mullaney, Budget and Planning Manager

1

FY11 3rd Quarter Update and FY12 Proposed Budget

May 23, 2011

2

Overview

Introductory Comments FY11 3rd Quarter Financial Update FY12 Proposed Budget

Break

Financial Planning Update

3

General Fund: Revenues

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

County Sales Tax 11,287,500$ 7,318,657$ 65.5% 11,175,000$ (112,500)$ -1.0%State Shared Sales Tax 15,225,000 10,179,604 67.1% 15,175,000 (50,000) -0.3%Property Tax and Penalties 8,189,961 7,638,022 92.1% 8,289,961 100,000 1.2%Auto Lieu 3,202,500 2,325,651 75.0% 3,100,000 (102,500) -3.2%PILT 1,514,240 - 0.0% 1,514,240 - 0.0%Other Intergovernmental 1,553,308 1,240,492 83.2% 1,491,419 (61,889) -4.0%Charges for Services 5,025,779 4,372,158 82.5% 5,300,000 274,221 5.5%Fines, Fees, and Forfeits 1,154,400 865,322 78.4% 1,103,868 (50,532) -4.4%Licenses and Permits 889,300 563,584 64.3% 875,950 (13,350) -1.5%Investment Income 355,000 231,314 72.0% 321,359 (33,641) -9.5%Other 311,290 387,121 86.6% 446,883 135,593 43.6%Transfers In 1,908,963 71,877 4.0% 1,789,935 (119,028) -6.2%Total 50,617,241$ 35,193,802$ 69.6% 50,583,615$ (33,626)$ -0.1%

Variance from BudgetYear to Date

(as a % of estimate)

Revenues are projected to be within 1% of the original budget

4

General Fund: Expenditures

Net of carryover appropriations, we are projecting we will be $2 million under budget due to salary and benefit savings

Operations, travel, capital, and carryovers will be expended 6% vacancy savings rate

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

Salary 24,793,881$ 18,728,516$ 75.5% 23,689,684$ (1,104,197)$ -4.5%Benefits 8,914,888 6,362,455 71.4% 8,039,187 (875,701) -9.8%Operations & Travel 9,325,264 6,758,085 72.5% 9,013,683 (311,581) -3.3%Capital 612,476 352,722 57.6% 315,064 (297,412) -48.6%Transfers Out 9,211,250 5,211,722 56.6% 8,927,628 (283,622) -3.1%Carryovers into FY12 806,391 806,391 Total 52,857,759$ 37,413,500$ 70.8% 50,791,637$ (2,066,122)$ -3.9%

Revenue 50,617,241$ 35,193,802$ 69.5% 50,583,615$ (33,626)$ -0.1%

Salary Savings (300,000)$

Use of Fund Balance (1,940,518)$ (2,219,698)$ (208,022)$ (1,732,496)$

FY11 Year to Date Variance from Budget

5

General Fund: Expenditures

Handout #1: Budget to estimate by department Includes direct General Fund programs only FY11 estimates are net of appropriation

carryovers

6

HURF

Due to delayed capital projects, there will be a net increase in fund balance

16% vacancy savings rate

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

HURF RevenueGasoline Tax 9,030,500$ 5,638,371$ 64.7% 8,720,000$ (310,500)$ -3.4%Auto Lieu 1,892,347 1,380,985 75.2% 1,837,475 (54,872) -2.9%Other 1,579,945 1,274,416 79.6% 1,601,408 21,463 1.4%Transfers In 3,604,500 1,535,739 94.9% 1,618,239 (1,986,261) -55.1%

Total Revenue 16,107,292$ 9,829,511$ 71.3% 13,777,122$ (2,330,170)$ -14.5%

ExpendituresSalaries 5,495,383$ 3,651,281$ 77.7% 4,696,318$ (799,065)$ -14.5%Benefits 2,109,054 1,298,030 76.8% 1,691,010 (418,044) -19.8%

Operations & Travel 6,598,690 2,809,204 58.0% 4,843,644 (1,755,046) -26.6%Capital 11,141,729 164,048 89.6% 183,054 (10,958,675) -98.4%Transfers Out 356,060 - 0.0% 323,941 (32,119) -9.0%

Total Expenditures 25,700,916$ 7,922,563$ 67.5% 11,737,967$ (13,962,949)$ -54.3%

Use of Fund Balance (9,593,624)$ 2,039,155$ Ending Fund Balance 8,116,088$ 19,748,867$

Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance

7

Jail District

$1.1 million increase in fund balance 13% vacancy savings rate

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

Jail District RevenueSales Tax 11,287,500$ 7,311,426$ 65.4% 11,175,000$ (112,500)$ -1.0%Bed Rental 2,276,366 1,470,938 62.6% 2,348,235 71,869 3.2%General Fund MOE 2,413,595 2,011,329 84.8% 2,371,944 (41,651) -1.7%Other 262,951 85,875 39.4% 217,885 (45,066) -17.1%

Total Revenue 16,240,412$ 10,879,568$ 67.5% 16,113,064$ (127,348)$ -0.8%

ExpendituresSalaries 6,883,678$ 4,898,130$ 79.7% 6,142,559$ (741,119)$ -10.8%Benefits 2,588,829 1,633,128 78.4% 2,082,506 (506,323) -19.6%

Operations & Travel 3,868,581 2,858,762 73.9% 3,868,581 - 0.0%Capital 392,480 214,600 87.8% 244,359 (148,121) -37.7%Debt Service 2,061,475 90,574 4.4% 2,060,506 (969) Transfers Out 60,389 - 0.0% 29,658 (30,731) -50.9%

Total Expenditures 15,855,432$ 9,695,194$ 67.2% 14,428,169$ (1,427,263)$ -9.0%

Increase In Fund Balance 384,980$ 1,684,895$ Ending Fund Balance 8,926,938$ 10,226,853$


8

PHSD

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

PHSD RevenueProperty Tax 5,028,462$ 4,612,548$ 91.7% 5,028,462$ -$ 0.0%General Fund MOE 3,739,233 3,152,892 84.3% 3,739,233 - 0.0%Other 1,223,929 974,944 82.1% 1,187,997 (35,932) -2.9%

Total Revenue 9,991,624$ 8,740,384$ 87.8% 9,955,692$ (35,932)$ -0.4%

ExpendituresSalaries 2,504,760$ 2,006,097$ 78.2% 2,564,224$ 59,464$ 2.4%Benefits 813,159 638,883 77.4% 825,093 11,934 1.5%

Operations & Travel 5,746,452 4,375,514 83.0% 5,268,724 (477,728) -8.3%Transfers Out 200,306 - 0.0% 154,789 (45,517) -22.7%

Total Expenditures 9,264,677$ 7,020,494$ 79.7% 8,812,830$ (451,847)$ -4.9%

Increase In Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$ Ending Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$

VarianceYear to Date


$200,000 budgeted savings in mandated payments from Federal offsets

Ending fund balance = 11% of revenues

9

CPOS

$9.5 million in sales tax capacity to reach $33 million (projected 1st quarter of FY15)

$3 million O&M funds exhausted in FY13

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

CPOSSales Tax 2,821,875$ 1,827,095$ 65.4% 2,793,750$ (28,125)$ -1.0%Grant Revenue 6,159,921 6,159,921 100.0% 6,159,921 - 0.0%Investment Income 190,000 18,244 40.5% 45,000 (145,000) -76.3%

Total CPOS 9,171,796$ 8,005,260$ 89.0% 8,998,671$ (173,125)$ -1.9%

CPOS TransfersOperations & Maintenance 560,913$ 459,837$ 82.0% 560,514$ (399)$ -0.1%Capital Projects 19,113,470 13,449,558 97.2% 13,833,678 (5,279,792) -27.6%

Use of Fund Balance (10,502,587)$ (5,395,521)$ Ending Fund Balance 1,701,130$ 6,808,196$

Sales tax collected through FY11 23,568,760$


10

Flood Control District

Most response & mitigation reimbursements for FY11 expenditures will be received in FY12 - FY14

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

Flood Control Administration & Capital ProjectsProperty Tax 1,437,347$ 1,365,707$ 95.0% 1,437,347$ -$ 0.0%Other Revenue 48,117 29,700 69.7% 42,597 (5,520) -11.5%Administration (357,188) (267,182) 74.8% (357,188) - 0.0%Capital Projects (1,959,500) (10,739) 100.0% (10,739) 1,948,761 -99.5%

Net Admin & Projects (831,224)$ 1,117,486$ 100.5% 1,112,017$ 1,943,241$ -233.8%

Emergency Response & MitigationResponse Expenditures (2,768,431)$ (2,600,000)$ 93.9% (2,768,431)$ -$ 0.0%Response Reimbursements 242,960 177,786 73.2% 242,960 - 0.0%Mitigation Expenditures (2,264,069) (1,104,645) 48.8% (2,264,069) - 0.0%

Mitigation Reimbursements - - 0.0% 20,000 20,000 Net Response & Mitigation (4,789,540)$ (3,526,859)$ 73.6% (4,769,540)$ 20,000$ -0.4%

VarianceYear to Date


11

Other (Non-Major) Funds: Revenues

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

Federal Grants & Shared Revenues 15,202,007$ 8,509,074$ 64.2% 13,253,581$ (1,948,426) -12.8%State Grants & Shared Revenues 7,026,602 4,928,191 71.1% 6,934,782 (91,820) -1.3%Charges for Services 5,288,108 3,744,865 63.4% 5,905,044 616,936 11.7%Property Tax 4,760,948 4,471,038 93.9% 4,760,948 - 0.0%Transfers In 4,533,564 356,456 9.8% 3,646,449 (887,115) -19.6%Solid Waste Contract 889,546 - 0.0% 1,070,473 180,927 20.3%Fines, Fees, an Forfeits 825,000 649,261 79.2% 820,000 (5,000) -0.6%Other 735,949 535,109 70.6% 758,461 22,512 3.1%Special Assessments 565,277 280,759 49.3% 569,099 3,822 0.7%Investment Income 358,975 335,643 75.2% 446,526 87,551 24.4%Total 40,185,976$ 23,810,396$ 62.4% 38,165,363$ (2,020,613)$ -5.0%

Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance from Budget

Non-major funds = 30% of total estimated revenues & expenditures

12

Other (Non-Major) Funds: Expenditures

Overall increase in other fund balances of $500,000 for FY11

16% vacancy savings rate

FY11Budget

FY11Estimate

Salary 12,524,751$ 8,540,337$ 68.2% 10,698,244$ (1,826,507)$ -14.6%Benefits 4,116,824 2,610,886 63.4% 3,328,624 (788,200) -19.1%Operations & Travel 21,874,015 12,270,504 56.1% 19,846,416 (2,027,599) -9.3%Capital 1,357,979 263,768 19.4% 433,646 (924,333) -68.1%Transfers Out 3,558,665 1,905,832 53.6% 3,292,763 (265,902) -7.5%Total 43,432,234$ 25,591,327$ 58.9% 37,599,693$ (5,832,541)$ -13.4%

Revenue 40,185,976$ 23,810,396$ 59.3% 38,165,363$ (2,020,613)$ -5.0%

Use of Fund Balance (3,246,258)$ (1,780,931)$ 565,670$ 3,811,928$

FY11 Year to Date Variance from

Budget

13

3rd Quarter Financial Update: FY2011

Summary Total revenues will be within 2% of budget Total expenditures will be 18% under budget

10% Vacancy Savings 8% Operations & Travel Savings 54% Capital Savings

Overall $3.6 million decrease in fund balance Net use of fund balance = $0 due to future emergency

response reimbursements

14

FY12 Proposed Budget:Assumptions

15

FY2012 BudgetKey Considerations

Economic recovery began in FY11 New “normal” level of revenues Flat budget Changes & reallocations at the

department/program level Use of reserves

Resume R&R with fund balance available if needed

16

FINANCIAL PLAN FOUNDATION KEY ELEMENTS

10 Year Plans for All Major Funds

Recessionary Revenue Model

Align Expenditures to Available Revenues

Prioritize County-Wide Mission Critical Areas• Personnel and Operational Infrastructure

Match Critical Programs to Highly Reliable Revenues to Protect Essential Services

Link One-Time, Deferrable Spending to Less Reliable Revenue

Maintain Adequate Reserves including Revenue Smoothing Reserve

Long Term PerspectiveFinancial Independence – Develop New Revenue Sources

Avoid Dependency on Temporary/Cyclical Revenues

Seek Relief from Mandates

Prudent Growth in Programs, FTEs and Recurring Expenditures

Continuous Improvement and ManagementCost containment opportunities through preventative efforts, efficiencies and use of technology

Sustainability

Emphasis on Essential Programs and People

Strategic Budget Process• Prioritize Core/Essential Services & Programs

• Allocate Resources based on Priorities

• Evaluate Mandates/Legally Required Programs

3 Prong Approach to Address Economic Impacts, Funding Shortfalls & Cost Shifts • Review and Reduce Expenditures and Service Levels

• Strategic Use of Reserves

• Develop Additional Revenue

17

Revenues by Type: All Funds

FY12 Operating Revenues = $115 million

(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $128 million)

Other Intergovernmental

23%

Fines, Fees, & Forfeits

2%

State Shared Sales Taxes

13%

Charges for Serv ices

9%

HURF7%

Sales Taxes22%

Other Taxes5%

Property Taxe16%

Licenses & Permits

1%Other

2%

Other Intergovernmental 25,090,758$ HURF 8,450,000$ Sales Taxes 25,646,625 Other Taxes 5,777,000 Property Taxes 18,327,068 Other 2,644,029 State Shared Sales Taxes 15,326,750 Fines, Fees, & Forfeits 1,995,400 Charges for Services 9,937,190 Licenses & Permits 1,627,057

18

Top 10 Revenues: All Funds

Top 5 are the same in FY12 as FY11 Top 4 sources are sales based

FY12 FY11State Shared Sales Tax 1 1County & Jail District Sales Tax (equal) 2/3 2/3HURF Gasoline Tax 4 4General Fund Property Tax 5 5Vehicle License Tax 6 8Public Health Services District Property Tax 7 7Library District Property Tax 8 9County Parks and Open Space Sales Tax 9 10Federal Payment in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) 10State Heritage Grant Funding for Rogers Lake 6

19

Top 10 Revenues: State Shared Sales Tax

FY11 is 8.4% above FY10 to date FY11 projected at $1.5 million below FY07

high

State Shared Sales Tax

$900,000$1,100,000$1,300,000$1,500,000$1,700,000

July

Augus

tSep

tembe

rOcto

ber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

aryFe

bruary

March

April

MayJu

ne

FY07 FY10 FY11

20

Top 10 Revenues: State Shared Sales Tax

Formula change = 5% growth No Census impact FY12: 2% growth

State Shared Sales Tax: Quarterly Trends

Q1 FY08

Q2 FY08Q3 FY08

Q4 FY08Q1 FY09

Q2 FY09

Q3 FY09

Q4 FY09Q1 FY10

Q2 FY10Q3 FY10

Q3 FY11 (to date)

Q2 FY11Q4 FY10Q1 FY11

-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%

21

Top 10 Revenues: Local Sales Tax (General Fund, Jail District, CPOS)

FY11 is 4.5% above FY10 to date FY11 projected at $2.8 million below FY08

high (all funds total)

Local Sales Tax

July

Augus

tSep

tembe

rOcto

ber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

aryFe

bruary

March

April

May

June

FY07 FY10 FY11 Actual

22

Top 10 Revenues: Local Sales Tax (General Fund, Jail District, CPOS)

FY12: 2% growth

Local Sales Tax Quarterly Trends

Q1 FY08

Q2 FY08

Q3 FY08

Q4 FY08

Q1 FY09

Q2 FY09

Q3 FY09

Q4 FY09Q1 FY10Q2 FY10

Q3 FY10

Q2 FY11Q3 FY11(to date)

Q4 FY10

Q1 FY11

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

23

Top 10 Revenues: HURF Gasoline Tax

FY11 is flat with FY10 to date FY11 is projected at $2 million below FY07 high FY12 = 3% decline due to additional State shifts

HURF Revenues by Month

$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000

$1,000,000$1,100,000

July

Augus

tSep

tembe

rOcto

ber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

March

April

MayJu

ne

FY07 FY10 FY11

24

Top 10 Revenues: Primary Property Taxes

FY12 values will drop 5.7% FY12 rate projected at $0.4303 Total Levy = $7,788,390

Primary Values & Levy History

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

$1,800,000,000

$2,000,000,000

FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11 FY12$5,500,000$6,000,000$6,500,000$7,000,000

$7,500,000$8,000,000$8,500,000

Assessed Value Levy

25

Top 10 Revenues: Secondary Property Taxes(Public Health Services District, Library District,

Flood Control District)

Flood control = 14% levy decline Public Health Services District = 8.6% levy decline Library District = 8.6% levy decline

Secondary Tax Levies

$-$1,000,000$2,000,000$3,000,000$4,000,000$5,000,000$6,000,000

Flood Control District Library District Public HealthServices District


Tax Rate = $0.20

Tax Rate = $0.25

$0.1899

$0.2293 $0.2367

26

Top 10 Revenues: Property Taxes

Handout #2: FY12 Rates & Levies

27

Top 10 Revenues: Vehicle License Tax

FY11 is within 1% of FY10 to date FY11 is 10% below FY07 high FY12 = 2% growth

Vehicle License Taxes by Month

July

Augus

tSep

tembe

rOcto

ber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

aryFe

bruary

March

April

May

June

FY07 FY10 FY11

28

Economic Indicators: Building Permits

Building Permits and Plan Check Fees

$0

$650,000

$1,300,000


Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

46% drop

Relatively flat from FY10 to FY11

29

Federal Budget Impacts

Secure Rural Schools PILT Full Funding Future Program Reductions? $2.7 million Public Health Funding $1.2 million HURF funding $1 million Community Services Funding $1 million Career Center Funding $700K Public Safety Funding

30

State Budget Impacts

Direct Cost Shifts = Direct Cash Outflow Cost Shifts in State Budget and from State Agencies

Revenue Reductions = Reduced Cash Inflow General Fund Revenue HURF Shifting for DPS Program (grant) Reductions

Health & Social Services Courts & Public Safety

Annual Total = $3.8 Million/Year

Cumulative Impact FY09 to FY12 = $11.8 Million

31

State Budget Impacts

FY09 FY10FY11

(estimated)FY12

(projected)Court Liability Insurance 12,450$ 54,510$ 54,510$ 73,000$ Restoration to Competency Cost Shift 59,384 317,383 140,000 125,000 Sexually Violent Predators Cost Shift - 20,682 45,000 50,000 County Justice of the Peace Salaries - 70,804 75,817 75,817 CAMA System - 562,181 578,133 778,727 Subtotal: Direct Cost Shifts 71,834$ 1,025,560$ 893,460$ 1,102,544$ Reduction in Grant Funding/Agency Cost Shifts 900,000$ 1,200,000$ 1,200,000$ 1,200,000$ Reduction in County Assistance Funds (Lottery) 27,502 245,654 550,035 550,035 HURF Shifts 600,000 650,000 650,000 900,000 Subtotal: Revenue Reductions 1,527,502$ 2,095,654$ 2,400,035$ 2,650,035$ Grand Total State Budget Impacts by Year 1,599,336$ 3,121,214$ 3,293,495$ 3,752,579$ Cummulative State Budget Impacts 1,599,336$ 4,720,550$ 8,014,045$ 11,766,624$

General Fund Total = over 3% of FY12 revenue

HURF Total = over 10% of FY12 gas tax revenue

Grant Funding/Agency Cost Shifts Total = over 8% of State grant revenue

32

Employees and Benefits

Compensation Merit increases not recommended for FY12 Employee pay frozen since 7/1/09 Hay study implementation

41% of positions under market Recommend implementation of new classification structure (mid-year)

Phased Approach

Benefits Health Insurance = 8.5% rate increase

Employee premium waived

Retirement system employer increases ASRS 53%/47% change

33


*Single Health Benefit rate includes $20 monthly employee premium. The County is recommending we waive this employee premium pending implementation of a wellness program

**ASRS shown before 53%/47% impact

Employer RatesFY11

Cost/RateFY12

Cost/Rate

GeneralFund

Impact All Funds

Impact *Health Benefits: Single 5,030$ 5,458$ 428.33$ 8.52%Health Benefits: Dependent 4,245$ 4,610$ 364.81$ 8.59%Other NAPEBT Benefits 443$ 472$ 28.56$ 6.44% 13,500$ 24,000$ PSPRS 32.61% 38.47% 5.86% 17.97% 153,500$ 167,000$ AOC 11.64% 13.13% 1.49% 12.80% 46,000$ 81,500$ CORP 5.12% 5.74% 0.62% 12.11% 200$ 26,000$ **ASRS 9.85% 10.75% 0.90% 9.14% 204,000$ 355,000$ EORP 17.42% 17.96% 0.54% 3.10% 9,000$ 9,500$

200,000$

Benefit Changes: Employer Rates

365,000$

Increase

34


*ASRS shown before 53%/47% impact

53%/47% ASRS Impact = $65 net pay reduction per $10,000 of wages

Employee RatesFY11

Cost/RateFY12

Cost/RateHealth Benefits: Single -$ -$ -$ 0.00%Health Benefits: Dependent 3,652$ 3,948$ 296.00$ 8.11%Other NAPEBT BenefitsPSPRS 7.65% 7.65% 0.00% 0.00%AOC 8.41% 8.41% 0.00% 0.00%CORP 8.41% 8.41% 0.00% 0.00%*ASRS 9.85% 10.75% 0.90% 9.14%EORP 7.00% 7.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Benefit Changes: Employee Rates

Increase

Various: Depends on Plans Selected

35


Take home pay (employees with dependent health coverage)

Average ASRS employee take home pay reduction = -2.3% ($296) health ($360) ASRS rate increase ($258) ASRS 53%/47%

Average non-ASRS employee take home pay reduction = -0.7% ($296) health No PSPRS, AOC, CORP, or EORP employee rate changes

36

Expenditures by Strategic Priority Area: All Funds

FY12 Operating Expenditures = $135 million

(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $154 million)

Public Health: Other2%

Economic Vitality & Development

1%

Public Safety: Criminal Justice

38%

Public Safety: Other17%

Public Health: PHSD10%

Cultural & Natural Resources

5%

Organizational & Fiscal Health

12%

Community Vitality15%

37

FY12 Proposed Budget: Major Funds Outlooks

38

Revenues by Type: General Fund

FY12 Operating Revenues = $50.3 million

(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $50.5 million)

Sales Tax es23%

Other Tax es8%

Lic ens es & Permits

2%

State Shared Sales Tax es

30%

Other1%

Charges f or Serv ic es

3%

Fines , Fees , & Forf eits

2%

Property Tax es15% Trans f ers In

3%

Indirec t Cos t Rec ov ery

8%Other

Intergov ernmental (State & Federal

Grants )5%

State Shared Sales Taxes 15,326,750$ Transfers In 1,652,957$ Sales Taxes 11,398,500 Charges for Services 1,378,052 Property Taxes 7,783,484 Fines, Fees, & Forfeits 1,125,400 Indirect Cost Recovery 4,108,200 Licenses & Permits 892,300 Other Taxes 3,917,000 Other 431,436 Other Intergovernmental 2,265,899

39

Operating Expenditures by Strategic Priority Area: General Fund

FY12 Operating Expenditures = $52 million

(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $51.6 million)

Cultural & Natural Resources

0.4%

Public Health: Other1.0%

Economic Vitality & Development

0.3%

Public Health: PHSD7.2%

Organizational & Fiscal Health

27.3%

Public Safety: Other3.3%

Public Safety: Criminal Justice

50.2%

Community Vitality10.4%

40

Expenditures by Category: General Fund

Salary47%

Benefits18%

Operating15%

Travel3%

Capital1%

Transfers Out16%

65% of General Fund budget is direct salary & benefits Transfers out is 75% maintenance of effort payments (Jail

District, PHSD)

41

General Fund

Handout #3: General Fund 10-Year Financial Plan

42

Major Fund Revenues by Type: HURF



Gasoline Tax60%

Vehicle License Tax13%

Other4%

Federal & State Capital Projects

Grants9%

National Forest Fee Revenue

11%Flood Control

District Transfer In3%

43

Major Fund Expenditures by Category: HURF

Salary28%

Benefits11%Operations

34%

Travel0%

Capital25%

Transfers Out2%

FY12 Operating Expenditures = $19.3 million


Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $5.1 million

44

HURF

Handout #4: HURF 10-Year Financial Plan

45

Major Fund Revenues by Type:Jail District


(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $16.2 million)

General Fund MOE13%

0%

Sales Tax62%

Other1%

Bed Rentals12%

Debt Proceeds: Transitional

Housing12%

46

Major Fund Expenditures by Category: Jail District



Budgeted Operating Increase In Fund Balance = $500,000

Salary41.1%

Benefits16.3%

Operating22.0%

Debt Service12.2%

Travel0.5%

Capital7.6%

Transfers Out0.3%

47

Jail District

Handout #5: Jail District 10-Year Financial Plan

48

Major Fund Revenues by Type:Public Health Services District



Charges for Services

4%

Other2%

General Fund Maintenance of

Effort39%

Property Taxes48%

Licenses & Permits

7%

49

Major Fund Expenditures by Category: Public Health Services District

Salary43%

Benefits14%

Operations35%

Capital2%Travel

3%

Transfers Out3%



Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $0

(without mandated payments)

Salary27%

Operations59%

Capital1%

Benefits9%

Travel2%

Transfers Out2%

(without mandated payments)(with mandated payments)

50


Handout #6: Public Health Services District 10-Year Financial Plan

51

Major Fund Revenues by Type:CPOS

FY12 Operating Revenues = $3 million


Sales Tax98%

Investment Income

2%

52

Major Fund Expenditures by Category: CPOS



Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $4.4 million

Capital Salaries & Benefits

2%

Capital Operating and

Travel5%

Capital Projects

85%

Operations and Maintenance

8%

53

CPOS

Handout #7: CPOS 10-Year Financial Plan

54

Flood Control

Handout #8: Flood Control 10-Year Financial Plans

55

Summary

Flat budget

Resume R&R with fund balance available if needed

Begin implementation of long-term “roadmap” to financial sustainability during FY13

56

FY2012 Proposed Budget Meetings

Book Materials Reference Section Department walk-through Outside Agencies Additional Materials?

Meeting Schedule & General Format

Follow-Up Item Tracking

57

Strategic Plan to Maintain Long Term Fiscal Health and Wellness

58

Review of Plan Key Considerations

Consistent Application of Foundations Previously Adopted and Implemented

All Major Funds and Mission Critical Areas Are Under Funding Pressure

Constrained Areas of Needs That Are Part of the Core Service

Prioritized Core Services Needed to Maintain Capacity Without Focusing on “Urgent” or “Immediate Needs” First

59

Review of Plan Key Considerations

Aligned Solutions System (County)-Wide Order of Events Based on “Naturally Occurring

Dates” Potential Loss or Cap of Available Revenue

Opportunities

60

Critical Decisions Needed

Prioritize Core County Services & Staffing and Set Appropriate Service Level (level of service in programs) Based On: Available Future Resources

AND Possible New Revenue Sources Based on Essential

County ProgramsAND

Mandate Re-evaluation – Legislative and Self Imposed

61

Essential County Program Focus

Public Safety

Public Health

Courts and Criminal Justice

Roads

Government Support Services: Assessor Treasurer Recorder County Attorney

Focus Across All Programs and Funds:

Maintain Current Assets

Cost Efficiency Into the Future, not Short-Sighted “Windfalls”

62

Mission Critical Focus

Workforce Challenges Competitive Compensation Plan

Proactive approach as labor market recovers; not reactionary; learn from past

Maintain a Current Compensation Plan Reduce FTEs As Needed to Fund Compensation Adjustments

Employee Training Tools and Workspace (Facilities and Information

Technology)

63

Mission Critical Focus

Workforce Challenges - Continued Retention and Recruitment

Cost of Turnover is High – Keep Employees Who Are Trained and Performing Well

Be Competitive in the Market – Ability to Recruit

64

Solutions: Tools in our Toolbox

3 Prong Approach Revenue Opportunities

Reduce Programs/Services Costs

Use of Reserves

Legislative Relief (Adds to 3 Prong Approach)Mandates and Required Programs

Revenue Opportunities

65

Long Term Strategic Plan:Next Steps

Step One: Prioritization of Long-Term Core Programs & Preferred Solutions (regardless of timing) Include Citizens, Board of Supervisors, County

Manager and Leadership Team in Process to Determine Core Programs

Preferred Solutions Include Priority to Core Programs, Cuts/Reductions, Funding Sources and Legislative Relief

66

Long Term Strategic Plan:Next Steps

Step Two: Translating Priorities to Annual Budgets and 10 Year Financial Plans Continual Process – Can’t Fix Everything in One Year How to Time Decisions – Considerations

Phasing Election Dates Legislative Sessions Public Outreach

Step Three: Developing Timeline/Schedule to Implement Preferred Solutions

67

Long Term Strategic Plan:Step One

PRIORITIZATION & PREFERRED SOLUTIONSROAD MAP KEY ELEMENTS

Board of Supervisors, County Manager, Leadership Team Evaluation & Prioritization of Programs/Services and Service Levels

Citizen Outreach & Input

HANDOUT #9 – DRAFT Road Map

68

Long Term Strategic Plan:Step Two

TRANSLATING PRIORITIES AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS INTO ANNUAL BUDGET ROAD MAP

KEY ELEMENTS Decisions from Step One Used to Update

Financial Plan (10 Year) Use Strategic/Annual Budget Process Integrate Timeline Components Evaluate Annually, Adjust as Needed

DETAILED ROAD MAP UNDER CONSTRUCTION

69

Long Term Strategic Plan:Step Three

TIMELINE/SCHEDULE TO IMPLEMENT PRIORITIES & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS KEY ELEMENTS

Layout Priorities and Preferred Solutions by Fiscal Year – Timing of Solutions examples: CPOS Expires 9/2014 Elections

Schedule Steps (Action Plans) Leading Up To Implementation of Each Preferred Solution

DETAILED TIMELINE/SCHEDULE UNDER CONSTRUCTION

70

Discussion

Questions? Thoughts, Concerns, Feedback Requests for Additional Information and/or

Clarifications

1

Coconino County Trends

Coconino County Board of SupervisorsNovember 2, 2011

The Arizona Rural Policy InstituteJeff Peterson, Research AssociateWayne Fox, DirectorThomas Combrink, Senior Research Specialist

2

This presentation is based in large part on a template

developed by Bill Towler,

Former Director of Community Development

Coconino County

And Russell Crawford, Coconino County Intern

3

16% Increase between 2000 and 2010



Coconino County Population1950 23,910 1960 41,857 1970 48,326 1980 78,008 1990 96,591 2000 116,320 2010 134,421

‐

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Pop

ulation

Year

Coconino County Population

US Census

Coconino County Annual Population Growth Rates

4

1950-2010 – 2.9% Average Annual Growth Rate0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

1950‐1960

1960‐1970

1970‐1980

1980‐1990

1990‐2000

2000‐2010

5.8%

1.4%

4.9%

2.2%

1.9%

1.5%

US Census

City of Flagstaff Population

5




‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Flagstaff Population1950 7,663 1960 18,214 1970 26,117 1980 34,743 1990 45,857 2000 52,894 2010 65,870

US Census

City of Flagstaff Annual Population Growth Rates

6

1950-2010 - 3.7% Average Annual Growth Rate

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

1950‐1960

1960‐1970

1970‐1980

1980‐1990

1990‐2000

2000‐2010

9.0%

3.7%

2.9%

2.8%

1.4%

2.2%

US Census

Coconino County Land Area18,617 Square Miles

11,887,000 Acres

Population Density (2010)Coconino County - 6.85 persons per square mile

Arizona – 56.3 persons per square mileUnited States – 87.4 persons per square mile

7US Census

8Coconino County Adopted Budget 2011

39%

27%

12%

10%7% 5%

Reservation

Forest Service

Private Property

State Land

Other/Public Lands

Bureau of LandManagement

Coconino County Land Ownership

Private Land Owners

Nine entities own 70% or 1,012,300 acres of all privately owned land in Coconino County

9Bill Towler

Incorporated Community Populations

10US Census * Greater Flagstaff includes the FMPO region

City or Town 2000 2010Flagstaff 52,894 65,870 Greater Flagstaff* 69,148 85,151 Page 6,809 7,247 Williams 2,842 3,023 Fredonia 1,036 1,314 Sedona (Coconino County) 2,963 2,842 Tusayan 562 558

FMPO Region

11

Select Unincorporated-Census Designated Places Populations

12US Census

Native American Reservation Populations within Coconino County

13US Census

County Race and Ethnicity

14US Census

Race1990 2000 1990-2000

Change 2010 2000-2010 Change

White 61,836 73,318 19% 82,967 13%

Native American 28,233 33,161 17% 36,714 11%

African American 1,419 1,215 -14% 1,629 34%

Asian/Pacific Islander 861 1,018 18% 2,010 97%

Other 4,242 4,801 13% 6,990 46%

Two or More Races NA 2,744 NA 4,111 50%

Hispanic Ethnicity1990 2000 1990-2000

Change 2010 2000-2010 Change

Number 9,696 13,383 38% 18,166 36%Percent of Population 10% 12% 2% 14% 2%

Race in Coconino County

15

White 63%

Native American

29%

African American

1%

Asian/ Pacific Islander

1%

Other 4%

Two or More Races

2%

2000

White 62%

Native American27%

African American1%

Asian/Pacific Islander2% Other

5%

Two or More Races3%

2010

US Census

16

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Births Deaths

Births & Deaths, Coconino County

Year Births Deaths 2009 1,894 6762008 1,985 6752007 2,132 6212006 2,062 6192005 2,070 6322004 2,027 5922003 1,920 6202002 1,867 5922001 1,873 5482000 1,858 501

Arizona Department of Health Services

Age Groups to 19

17US Census

Age 1990 2000 2010Under 5 years 8,613 8,444 8,945 5 to 9 years 8,535 9,122 8,763

10 to 14 years 8,159 9,965 8,599 15 to 19 years 9,868 10,188 13,324

Age Groups 20 to 44

18US Census

Age 1990 2000 201020 to 24 years 11,148 12,512 15,925 25 to 29 years 8,225 8,710 9,943 30 to 34 years 8,287 7,570 8,186 35 to 39 years 7,937 8,539 7,849 40 to 44 years 6,486 9,098 7,650

Age Groups 45 to 64

19US Census

Age 1990 2000 201045 to 49 years 4,611 8,699 8,664 50 to 54 years 3,548 6,892 9,289 55 to 59 years 2,960 4,777 8,677 60 to 64 years 2,672 3,661 6,683

Age Groups 65+

20US Census

Age 1990 2000 201065 to 69 years 2,107 2,856 4,463 70 to 74 years 1,480 2,159 2,984 75 to 79 years 950 1,537 2,035 80 to 84 years 553 897 1,350

85 years and over 452 694 1,092

Average Household Size

Average Family Size

21US Census

1990 2000 % Change 2010 % Change2.99 2.8 -6.8% 2.69 -3.9%

1990 2000 % Change 2010 % Change3.54 3.36 -5.4% 3.26 -3.0%

Coconino County Income Comparison in Nominal Dollars

22US Census

Between 1990 and 2000, median family incomes in dollars rose 50% and median household income rose 47%. Between 2000 and 2010 median family income rose 16% and median household income rose 10%. The number of households earning over $100,000 rose by 369% between 1990 and 2000, and 58% between 2000 and 2010.

1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010

% Change, 2000‐2010

Median Family Income $ 30,648 $ 45,873 50% $ 53,187 16%

Median Household Income $ 26,112 $ 38,256 47% $ 42,130 10%Number of Households with Income >$100K 730 3,422 369% 5,409 58%

Income Comparison in 2010 Dollars

23ACS Estimates 1990, 2000, 2010; US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator

Flagstaff 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010

% Change, 2000‐2010

Median Family Income $ 61,464 63,384 3% $ 56,839 -10%Median Household Income $ 49,910 $ 48,619 -3% $ 45,042 -7%

Rural Coconino County* 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010

% Change, 2000‐2010

Median Family Income $ 47,054 $ 57,254 22% $ 49,678 -13%Median Household Income $ 42,310 $ 51,283 21% $ 39,332 -23%

Coconino County 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010

% Change, 2000‐2010

Median Family Income $ 53,895 $ 60,041 11% $ 53,187 -11%Median Household Income $ 45,918 $ 50,072 9% $ 42,130 -16%

*Rural Coconino County is the County outside of Flagstaff

Education- NAU Mountain Campus Enrollment

24

Enrollment Change, 2005‐2010Freshman 70%Sophomore 48%Junior 41%Senior 39%Graduate ‐7%

Northern Arizona University

12,107 12,14211,867

12,340

12,859

13,752

14,982

16,116

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Coconino Community College Enrollment

3,785 3,798

4,380 4,382 4,561 4,553 4,646 4,961

3,048 3,044 3,516 3,418 3,596 3,588 3,588 3,700

737 754 864 964 965 965 1,058 1,261

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Fall Enrollment Numbers

Total Students Part‐Time Students Full‐Time Students

25Coconino Community College

FUSD Enrollment By Grade

26Flagstaff Unified School District, (2010-2011) 120 Day Count

27

FUSD Historic Enrollment

Flagstaff Unified School District

Coconino County Historical School Enrollment

28Arizona Department of Education, Includes Charters

Educational Attainment 25 yrs +

29American Community Survey, 2005-2009

4% 6%

19%

24%7%

21%

18%Flagstaff6% 8%

24%

25%

7%

17%

13%Coconino County

Educational Attainment 25 yrs +

30

10%

14%

29%20%

10%

9%8%

Tuba City2% 4%

29%

38%

9%

12%6%

Page

9%

15%

39%

23%

7%6% 2%

Fredonia

<9th

9‐12 (no diploma)

HS grad

Some College, NoDiploma

Associates

Bachelors

Grad or ProfessionalDegree

0% 3%

30%

32%

13%

21%0%

Tusayan

American Community Survey, 2005-2009

Total Housing UnitsTotal Housing Units, Coconino County

1990 ∆ 2000 ∆ 201042,914 25% 53,443 18% 63,321

31US Census

Tenure of Occupied Housing Units

32

61%

39%

Coconino County

Owner OccupiedRenter Occupied

48%52%

Flagstaff

US Census

Coconino County Rents, 2000 & 2009


34

35

Flagstaff Rents, 1990, 2000, & 2009

US Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2009

36

Flagstaff Rents, 1990, 2000, & 2009

7%

13%

56%

22%

2% 0%2% 3%

16%

46%

23%

8%

2%0% 1%

8%

17%

33%31%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 2000 2009

US Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2009

Rent Trends

37US Department of Housing and Urban Development

Fair Market Rents, Coconino County

Efficiency One‐Bedroom

Two‐Bedroom

Three‐Bedroom

Four‐Bedroom

FY 2011 $845 $1,005 $1,136 $1,461 $1,843 FY 2010 $820 $975 $1,102 $1,417 $1,787 Annual Increase 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Average Sales Price January 2010: $300,000 Average Sales Price January 2011: $267,000

• Even as sales prices drop, rents continue to rise

Foreclosure Data

38RealtyTrack.com

• Houses Receiving Foreclosure Filings in September, 2011:• Arizona, 1 in every 305 (9,022)• Coconino County, 1 in every 471

(101)• Flagstaff: 1 in every 453 (72)

Recent Home Sales, Flagstaff

39

Month YearNumber Sold Median Price Median Size

(sq feet)Price/Square

Foot

January 2011 41 $ 267,000 2,116 $ 144

July 2010 82 $ 296,000 1,915 $ 155

January 2010 38 $ 300,000 1,788 $ 146

July 2009 83 $ 300,000 2,014 $ 149

January 2009 31 $ 315,000 1,790 $ 176

July 2008 79 $ 315,000 1,732 $ 202

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

July, 2008 January, 2009 July, 2009 January, 2010 July, 2010 January, 2011

Northern Arizona Association of Realtors

Coconino County Building Permits

40Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino County. US Census Bureau.

Year Buildings Residential Units

Construction Costs (millions)

1999 702 949 $ 111 2000 598 683 $ 99 2001 857 877 $ 115 2002 841 865 $ 119 2003 900 1,189 $ 148 2004 899 910 $ 165 2005 821 1,080 $ 175 2006 838 1,080 $ 184 2007 474 477 $ 103 2008 279 283 $ 66 2009 155 482 $ 54

Coconino County Building Permits

41Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino County. US Census Bureau.

Employment

42

Coconino County Employment

February 2011

January 2011

February 2010

Change, February 2010‐

February 2011

Civilian Labor Force 76,800 76,600 74,800 2,000

Unemployment 6,800 7,200 7,600 ‐800

Unemployment Rate 8.9% 9.4% 10.2% ‐1.3%

Total Employment 70,000 69,400 67,200 2,800

Arizona Department of Commerce

Total employment in the county Increased more than the size of the workforce between February, 2010 and February, 2011.

Unemployment

43State of Arizona Research Center

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Arizona 6.0% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 9.7% 10.0%Coconino County 5.4% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.3% 3.7% 5.3% 8.3% 8.9%Rural Coconino County 7.1% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 5.6% 4.8% 7.0% 10.8% 11.6%Flagstaff 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 5.3% 5.9%United States 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7%

Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff

Poverty in Coconino County


Coconino County Rural Coconino CountyTotal Population Under 18 Total Population Under 18

2007 15.9% 19.5% 16.3% 22.6%2008 15.8% 20.5% 16.2% 23.5%2009 17.9% 22.5% 17.6% 25.3%2010 25.9% 29.7% 25.9% 35.9%

Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff

Employment

45

Industry 2000 2005 2010 2011

State and Local Government 16,800 15,900 16,300 16,400

Leisure and Hospitality 11,200 12,400 12,300 12,500

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,600 9,600 9,500 9,600

Educational and Health Services 5,800 7,100 8,000 8,100

Manufacturing 2,900 3,300 3,700 3,800

Federal Government 3,400 3,100 3,200 2,900

Professional and Business Services 2,600 3,400 2,600 2,600

Mining and Construction 2,800 3,300 2,000 2,000

Other Services 1,200 1,900 1,800 1,800

Financial Activities 1,600 1,700 1,300 1,300

Information 500 500 400 400

Average Number of Employees within Coconino County by Year.

Arizona Department of Economic Security

Poverty Comparison

462005-2009 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau

ArizonaCoconino County

Flagstaff

15% 17% 18%

21%21%

19%

7%13%

9%

11% 11%

10%

Total Population in Poverty Under 18 in Poverty 65+ in Poverty Families in Poverty

AreaTotal

Population in Poverty

Under 18 in Poverty

65+ in Poverty Families in Poverty

Arizona 15% 21% 7% 11%Coconino County 17% 21% 13% 11%Flagstaff 18% 19% 9% 10%

Coconino County Workforce Growth

47

2000-2010 Workforce Change: 23%

Arizona Department of Administration, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Arizona Workforce Growth

48



Flagstaff Workforce Growth

49



‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

20002010

31,596 38,162

2009 Transportation

502005-2009 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates

Commuting Method Flagstaff Coconino County Arizona United

States

Median Travel Time to Work 15.3 minutes 18 Minutes 24.9 Minutes 25.2 Minutes

Drive Alone66% 68% 75% 76%

Carpool15% 14% 13% 11%

Public Transportation1% 1% 2% 5%

Walk7% 7% 2% 3%

Other Means7% 4% 2% 2%

Work at Home5% 6% 5% 4%

Public Transportation:Average Monthly Mountain Line Ridership

51

24.6% Average Annual Increase in Ridership, 2002-2010

15,959

24,551 30,070

35,528

51,159

60,948

74,933

86,12592,938

‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

NAIPTA

County Expenditure Comparisons

52Coconino County Budget Office

‐

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

Fiscal Year Actual County Expenditures

2000 80,854,013 2001 91,133,646 2002 86,682,993 2003 86,641,977 2004 96,260,335 2005 104,224,410 2006 116,181,618 2007 113,147,723 2008 135,690,142 2009 120,765,542 2010 113,771,637

County Per-Capita Expenditure Comparisons

53Coconino County Budget Office and US Census Bureau

Fiscal YearEstimated Per-

Capita Expenditure

2000 $ 695

2001 $ 774

2002 $ 720

2003 $ 713

2004 $ 780

2005 $ 835

2006 $ 922

2007 $ 888

2008 $ 1,057

2009 $ 930

2010 $ 846

$‐

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

FY11Budget

FY11 Year to Date

FY11Estimate

ProjectedVariance

18 Adult Probation 1,442,761$ 1,109,256$ 1,373,869$ -5%

12 Assessor 1,636,359 1,133,893 1,493,506 -9%

1 Board of Supervisors 1,334,128 931,968 1,333,399 0%

23 Clerk of Superior Court 1,089,835 846,547 1,039,466 -5%

4 Community Development 1,378,443 1,094,667 1,356,504 -2%

34 Community Services 923,962 681,496 887,667 -4%

17 Constable 89,191 61,290 84,847 -5%

25 County Attorney 2,780,883 2,088,936 2,665,131 -4%

33 County Manager 1,159,838 901,225 1,114,539 -4%

2 Facilities Management 2,542,360 1,833,909 2,323,964 -9%

9 Finance 1,325,157 997,559 1,243,233 -6%

11 Human Resources 1,211,851 901,736 1,126,744 -7%

16 Information Technology 2,403,862 1,875,359 2,177,398 -9%

21 Justice Court - Flagstaff 1,217,243 886,527 1,126,618 -7%

38 Justice Court - Fredonia 151,044 121,327 148,536 -2%

40 Justice Court - Page 330,573 246,972 319,007 -3%

43 Justice Court - Williams 336,510 244,414 315,739 -6%

24 Juvenile Court 2,549,384 1,715,224 2,410,622 -5%

28 Legal Defender 760,903 586,900 779,341 2%

at Non-Departmental: Assessor/ Treasurer System 980,757 561,437 887,847 -9%

7 Non-Departmental: Other 1,145,741 549,271 1,077,482 -6%

26 Parks & Recreation 761,864 582,297 761,864 0%

27 Public Defender 2,029,027 1,586,408 1,966,300 -3%

5 Recorder 1,661,221 1,229,193 1,572,904 -5%

20 Sheriff 7,689,250 5,869,728 7,459,404 -3%

22 Superior Court 2,624,203 1,996,540 2,624,203 0%

13 Treasurer 604,139 444,141 563,367 -7%

General Fund Expenditures by Department

Handout #1

FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.4303$ 0.3953$ 0.0350$ 8.9%AV 1,809,990,684$ 1,920,050,800$ (110,060,116)$ -5.7%

Levy (Total) 7,788,390$ 7,589,961$ 198,429$ 2.6%

FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2367$ 0.2367$ -$ 0.0%AV 1,839,054,680$ 2,011,384,698$ (172,330,018)$ -8.6%

Levy (Total) 4,353,042$ 4,760,948$ (407,905)$ -8.6%Library Operations 4,055,116$ 4,435,103$ (379,988)$ -8.6%State Budget Impacts 297,927$ 325,844$ (27,917)$ -8.6%

FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2500$ 0.2500$ -$ 0.0%AV 1,839,054,680$ 2,011,384,698$ (172,330,018)$ -8.6%

Levy (Total) 4,597,637$ 5,028,462$ (430,825)$ -8.6%

FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2000$ 0.2000$ -$ 0.0%AV 793,527,519$ 924,932,135$ (131,404,616)$ -14.2%

Levy (Total) 1,587,055$ 1,849,864$ (262,809)$ -14.2%Levy (Operating District) 1,232,990$ 1,437,347$ (204,357)$ -14.2%

FY12 FY11Primary Levy 40.56$ 39.53$ 1.03$ 2.6%Library District 21.64$ 23.67$ (2.03)$ -8.6%Public Health Services District 22.86$ 25.00$ (2.14)$ -8.6%Flood Control District 17.16$ 20.00$ (2.84)$ -14.2%

Total per $100,000 of FY11 Value 102.22$ 108.20$ (5.98)$ -5.5%

FY12 Property Taxes: Coconino County Taxing Districts

Change

Change

ChangeProjected Levy per $100,000 of FY11 Value

General Fund Primary Tax

Library District


Flood Control DistrictChange

Change

Handout #2

Actual Budget EstimatedFY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

Revenues and Transfers InTaxes 22,091,428$ 22,679,961$ 22,601,930$ 22,998,984$ 23,992,684$ 25,169,096$ 26,076,138$ 27,016,756$ 27,974,768$ 28,967,585$ 29,977,732$ 31,023,895$ 32,087,243$ Licenses and Permits 847,683 889,300 875,950 892,300 936,915 1,002,499 1,022,549 1,043,000 1,081,591 1,121,610 1,161,988 1,203,819 1,245,953 Intergovernmental 17,899,917 18,292,548 18,180,659 18,241,412 18,073,391 19,208,467 19,879,444 20,575,614 21,279,382 22,008,891 22,745,143 23,507,607 24,275,817 Charges for Services 3,462,114 5,025,779 5,300,000 4,637,489 4,691,013 4,784,834 4,887,307 4,991,998 5,098,958 5,208,234 5,319,878 5,433,943 5,550,480 Fees, Fines, and Forfeits 1,165,450 1,154,400 1,103,868 1,125,400 1,142,281 1,159,415 1,176,806 1,194,459 1,212,375 1,230,561 1,249,019 1,267,755 1,286,771 Investment Income 419,410 355,000 321,359 386,420 351,023 317,128 331,875 362,278 424,010 507,231 625,060 765,778 946,788 SRP Contributions 136,481 125,000 137,087 140,636 133,604 126,924 120,578 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Miscellaneous 183,465 186,290 272,827 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 Transfers In 2,883,684 1,908,963 1,789,935 1,652,957 651,422 589,742 596,060 602,493 608,711 615,034 621,592 627,780 633,932

Total Revenues and Transfers In 49,089,632 50,617,241 50,583,615 50,266,398 50,163,132 52,548,904 54,281,557 56,077,397 57,970,595 59,949,946 61,991,213 64,121,378 66,317,784

Expenditures and Transfers OutSalaries 25,945,977 24,793,881 24,793,881 24,544,151 24,896,509 25,359,400 25,908,990 26,393,821 26,937,771 27,416,232 27,981,122 28,451,064 29,006,651 Benefits 8,329,268 8,914,888 8,914,888 9,475,691 9,787,603 10,139,131 10,489,505 10,830,504 11,172,168 11,503,801 11,872,401 12,193,462 12,509,130

Less: Projected Salary Savings (1,496,865) (300,000) (1,979,898) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) Operations 7,996,080 8,000,976 7,654,681 7,988,372 7,234,268 7,144,890 7,345,648 7,307,633 7,484,768 7,423,145 7,651,685 7,566,481 7,771,454 Travel 1,186,309 1,324,288 1,359,002 1,322,927 1,335,156 1,348,508 1,361,993 1,375,613 1,389,369 1,403,263 1,417,295 1,431,468 1,445,783 Capital 456,497 612,476 315,064 583,286 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 Total Transfers Out 8,039,145 9,211,252 8,927,628 8,830,031 8,328,985 8,354,939 8,451,533 8,401,651 8,502,020 8,565,433 8,667,654 8,734,773 8,834,307

Total Expenditures and Transfers Out 50,456,411 52,557,761 49,985,246 52,444,458 51,292,974 52,057,319 53,268,120 54,019,675 55,196,549 56,022,326 57,300,609 58,087,700 59,277,777

Total Surplus/(Deficit) (1,366,779) (1,940,520) 598,370 (2,178,060) (1,129,841) 491,585 1,013,436 2,057,722 2,774,046 3,927,621 4,690,604 6,033,677 7,040,007 Beginning Fund Balance 14,647,229 13,280,450 13,280,450 13,878,820 11,700,760 10,570,918 11,062,503 12,075,939 14,133,662 16,907,708 20,835,329 25,525,933 31,559,610 Net Ending Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 11,339,930$ 13,878,820$ 11,700,760$ 10,570,918$ 11,062,503$ 12,075,939$ 14,133,662$ 16,907,708$ 20,835,329$ 25,525,933$ 31,559,610$ 38,599,617$

Fund BalanceUnreserved

General Fund 6,349,558$ 4,033,688$ 6,559,768$ 3,408,744$ 2,144,162$ 2,268,629$ 4,023,115$ 5,812,426$ 8,303,425$ 11,935,092$ 16,320,490$ 22,035,571$ 28,747,039$ Loan to Flood Control District - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - -

Emergency Reserve 6,930,892 7,306,242 7,319,052 7,292,016 7,426,757 7,793,874 8,052,825 8,321,236 8,604,283 8,900,237 9,205,443 9,524,040 9,852,578 Total Unreserved Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 10,339,930$ 12,878,820$ 10,700,760$ 9,570,918$ 11,062,503$ 12,075,939$ 14,133,662$ 16,907,708$ 20,835,329$ 25,525,933$ 31,559,610$ 38,599,617$

Assumptions & Changes:Vacancy Savings & PDP 1,400,000 300,000 1,979,898 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Transfers for State Budget Impacts 282,195 409,265 409,266 298,103 Merit Increases ($800,000/year) 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

5 Operations/Travel Increases 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%Loss of SRS Funding for Superintendent of Schools, Patrol, Search and Rescue 725,000 Recurring funding lossLoss of PILT full funding 400,000 Recurring funding lossCapital R&R Funding 1,210,000 1,210,000 750,000

Coconino CountyGeneral Fund Ten Year Financial Plan: Operating Revenues and Expenditures (Slow Growth)_Merit & CPI

Projected

234

1

8

67

5/14/2011Handout #3

Actual Budget EstimatedFY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

Revenues and Transfers InTaxes 22,091,428$ 22,679,961$ 22,601,930$ 22,998,984$ 23,992,684$ 25,169,096$ 26,076,138$ 27,016,756$ 27,974,768$ 28,967,585$ 29,977,732$ 31,023,895$ 32,087,243$ Licenses and Permits 847,683 889,300 875,950 892,300 936,915 1,002,499 1,022,549 1,043,000 1,081,591 1,121,610 1,161,988 1,203,819 1,245,953 Intergovernmental 17,899,917 18,292,548 18,180,659 18,241,412 18,073,391 19,208,467 19,879,444 20,575,614 21,279,382 22,008,891 22,745,143 23,507,607 24,275,817 Charges for Services 3,462,114 5,025,779 5,300,000 4,637,489 4,691,013 4,784,834 4,887,307 4,991,998 5,098,958 5,208,234 5,319,878 5,433,943 5,550,480 Fees, Fines, and Forfeits 1,165,450 1,154,400 1,103,868 1,125,400 1,142,281 1,159,415 1,176,806 1,194,459 1,212,375 1,230,561 1,249,019 1,267,755 1,286,771 Investment Income 419,410 355,000 321,359 386,420 351,023 317,128 314,909 309,730 312,185 309,561 312,600 306,953 307,635 SRP Contributions 136,481 125,000 137,087 140,636 133,604 126,924 120,578 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Miscellaneous 183,465 186,290 272,827 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 Transfers In 2,883,684 1,908,963 1,789,935 1,652,957 651,422 593,780 604,407 616,524 628,795 641,557 654,968 668,371 680,755

Total Revenues and Transfers In 49,089,632 50,617,241 50,583,615 50,266,398 50,163,132 52,552,943 54,272,938 56,038,880 57,878,854 59,778,798 61,712,129 63,703,143 65,725,454

Expenditures and Transfers OutSalaries 25,945,977 24,793,881 24,793,881 24,544,151 24,896,509 25,782,621 26,782,802 27,861,920 29,038,826 30,191,358 31,473,585 32,702,056 33,918,160 Benefits 8,329,268 8,914,888 8,914,888 9,475,691 9,787,603 10,236,680 10,692,162 11,172,284 11,661,665 12,149,606 12,684,899 13,176,779 13,633,309

Less: Projected Salary Savings (1,496,865) (300,000) (1,979,898) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) Operations 7,996,080 8,000,976 7,654,681 7,988,372 7,234,268 7,144,890 7,345,648 7,307,633 7,484,768 7,423,145 7,651,685 7,566,481 7,771,454 Travel 1,186,309 1,324,288 1,359,002 1,322,927 1,335,156 1,348,508 1,361,993 1,375,613 1,389,369 1,403,263 1,417,295 1,431,468 1,445,783 Capital 456,497 612,476 315,064 583,286 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 Total Transfers Out 8,039,145 9,211,252 8,927,628 8,830,031 8,328,985 8,403,737 8,552,538 8,529,136 8,681,241 8,799,672 8,962,426 9,093,202 9,247,659

Total Expenditures and Transfers Out 50,456,411 52,557,761 49,985,246 52,444,458 51,292,974 52,626,887 54,445,594 55,957,038 57,966,321 59,677,495 61,900,343 63,680,439 65,726,817

Total Surplus/(Deficit) (1,366,779) (1,940,520) 598,370 (2,178,060) (1,129,841) (73,944) (172,656) 81,842 (87,467) 101,303 (188,213) 22,705 (1,364) Beginning Fund Balance 14,647,229 13,280,450 13,280,450 13,878,820 11,700,760 10,570,918 10,496,974 10,324,318 10,406,161 10,318,693 10,419,996 10,231,783 10,254,487 Net Ending Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 11,339,930$ 13,878,820$ 11,700,760$ 10,570,918$ 10,496,974$ 10,324,318$ 10,406,161$ 10,318,693$ 10,419,996$ 10,231,783$ 10,254,487$ 10,253,124$

Fund BalanceUnreserved

General Fund 6,349,558$ 4,033,688$ 6,559,768$ 3,408,744$ 2,144,162$ 1,703,100$ 2,274,039$ 2,092,807$ 1,731,185$ 1,549,410$ 1,073,209$ 799,272$ 496,419$ Loan to Flood Control District - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - -

Emergency Reserve 6,930,892 7,306,242 7,319,052 7,292,016 7,426,757 7,793,874 8,050,280 8,313,353 8,587,509 8,870,586 9,158,574 9,455,216 9,756,705 Total Unreserved Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 10,339,930$ 12,878,820$ 10,700,760$ 9,570,918$ 10,496,974$ 10,324,318$ 10,406,161$ 10,318,693$ 10,419,996$ 10,231,783$ 10,254,487$ 10,253,124$

Assumptions & Changes:Vacancy Savings & PDP 1,400,000 300,000 1,979,898 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Transfers for State Budget Impacts 282,195 409,265 409,266 298,103 Merit Increases ($800,000/year) 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00%

5 Operations/Travel Increases 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%Loss of SRS Funding for Superintendent of Schools, Patrol, Search and Rescue 725,000 Recurring funding lossLoss of PILT full funding 400,000 Recurring funding lossCapital R&R Funding 1,210,000 1,210,000 750,000

Coconino CountyGeneral Fund Ten Year Financial Plan: Operating Revenues and Expenditures (Slow Growth)_Pay Plans

Projected

234

1

8

67

5/14/2011Handout #3

5/19/2011

Actual Budget EOY Est FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021Operating Revenues

Taxes 1,892,189$ 1,892,347$ 1,837,475$ 1,860,000$ 1,971,600$ 2,089,896$ 2,169,312$ 2,251,746$ 2,335,061$ 2,421,458$ 2,508,630$ 2,598,941$ 2,689,904$ Licenses and Permits 24,270 16,525 46,000 16,525 16,856 17,193 17,536 17,887 18,549 19,235 19,928 20,645 21,368 Intergovernmental 9,042,778 9,193,920 9,045,602 8,483,420 8,694,670 8,954,508 9,177,535 9,406,138 9,640,455 9,880,631 10,126,812 10,379,146 10,637,790 Investment Income 543,403 250,000 350,000 250,000 311,996 200,748 73,221 (37,351) - - - - - Gain on Sale of Equipment 40,430 250,000 - 170,663 227,574 311,885 289,722 294,611 216,341 344,891 96,925 261,542 242,266 Miscellaneous 10,583 - 60,806 - 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Transfers In 1,614,945 1,645,000 1,607,500 1,625,000 1,625,000 642,234 123,516 1,003 - - - - - Total Revenues 13,168,598 13,247,792 12,947,383 12,405,608 12,852,695 12,221,463 11,855,842 11,939,034 12,215,406 12,671,215 12,757,295 13,265,275 13,596,327

Operating ExpendituresSalaries 4,737,694 5,495,383 4,696,318 5,364,258 5,424,764 5,533,927 5,726,448 5,953,913 6,184,150 6,423,621 6,609,916 6,794,484 6,984,451 Benefits 1,680,010 2,109,054 1,691,010 2,124,620 1,816,316 1,886,440 1,967,660 2,055,399 2,141,058 2,227,935 2,309,457 2,382,075 2,449,105 Salary Savings (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) Operations 2,157,657 3,232,765 2,035,307 3,216,015 3,293,600 3,318,536 3,343,721 3,369,158 3,394,850 3,420,798 3,447,006 3,473,476 3,500,211 Commodities 1,486,366 1,523,315 1,292,180 1,548,605 1,574,424 1,600,708 1,627,466 1,654,706 1,682,438 1,710,672 1,739,415 1,768,679 1,798,473 Contingency 12,794 900,000 670,000 900,000 - - - - - - - - - Equipt & Lt Veh Replacement 450,509 2,640,375 14,930 2,212,041 2,492,543 2,628,945 2,504,014 2,253,309 2,917,240 2,329,772 2,556,389 2,680,521 4,106,964 Travel 23,021 68,670 18,500 63,670 64,307 64,950 65,599 66,255 66,918 67,587 68,263 68,945 69,635 Facility Improvements 70,650 - - - - - - - - - - - - Capital (Routine Equipment) 208,071 691,300 84,394 628,906 69,370 32,370 47,370 69,370 32,370 47,370 32,370 32,370 47,370 Transfers Out 1,019,477 1,183,182 1,151,063 1,230,269 1,222,278 1,256,928 1,297,159 1,340,289 1,384,273 1,429,628 1,472,859 1,516,456 1,560,974 Total Expenditures 11,846,249 17,844,044 11,653,702 16,288,384 14,957,601 15,322,803 15,579,437 15,762,399 16,803,297 16,657,383 17,235,675 17,717,006 19,517,183

Total Operating Surplus/(Deficit) 1,322,349 (4,596,252) 1,293,681 (3,882,776) (2,104,906) (3,101,340) (3,723,595) (3,823,366) (4,587,891) (3,986,167) (4,478,381) (4,451,732) (5,920,856)

Capital Road Improvement RevenuesIntergovernmental 282,900 900,000 819,000 1,325,846 - - - - - - - - - Transfers In 199,815 1,959,500 10,739 425,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 Total Revenues 482,715 2,859,500 829,739 1,750,846 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000

Capital Road Improvement ExpendituresROW Acquisition 128,846 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 Improvements 641,864 6,850,000 8,730 1,942,138 4,382,500 4,300,000 2,780,000 3,060,000 3,152,500 3,200,000 3,150,000 3,250,000 3,250,000 Federal Stimulus (ARRA) 819,000 931,872 535 - - - - - - - - - - Total Expenditures 1,589,710 7,856,872 84,265 2,017,138 4,457,500 4,375,000 2,855,000 3,135,000 3,227,500 3,275,000 3,225,000 3,325,000 3,325,000

Total Capital Surplus/(Deficit) (1,106,995) (4,997,372) 745,474 (266,292) (3,457,500) (3,275,000) (1,805,000) (2,085,000) (2,127,500) (2,225,000) (2,175,000) (2,275,000) (2,275,000)

Total Surplus/(Deficit) 215,354 (9,593,624) 2,039,155 (4,149,068) (5,562,406) (6,376,340) (5,528,595) (5,908,366) (6,715,391) (6,211,167) (6,653,381) (6,726,732) (8,195,856) Beginning Fund Balance 17,494,358 17,709,712 17,709,712 19,748,867 15,599,799 10,037,393 3,661,053 (1,867,542) (7,775,908) (14,491,298) (20,702,465) (27,355,846) (34,082,578) Net Ending Fund Balance 17,709,712$ 8,116,088$ 19,748,867$ 15,599,799$ 10,037,393$ 3,661,053$ (1,867,542)$ (7,775,908)$ (14,491,298)$ (20,702,465)$ (27,355,846)$ (34,082,578)$ (42,278,433)$

( FY12 and beyond Exp linked to ExpRevised TAB)

HURF

Financial Summary

PROJECTED FY2010 FY2011

Ten Year Financial Plan: Adjusted for Inflation and Pay Plan

5/19/2011 3:42 PMHandout #4

FY12FY10 Budget Estimate Budget FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

RevenuesMOE 2,325,435$ 2,413,595$ 2,371,944$ 2,420,000$ 2,468,400$ 2,517,768$ 2,568,123$ 2,619,486$ 2,671,876$ 2,725,313$ 2,779,819$ 2,835,416$ 2,892,124$ Sales Tax 10,791,078 11,287,500 11,175,000 11,398,500 11,968,425 12,622,499 13,102,154 13,600,036 14,103,237 14,625,057 15,151,559 15,697,015 16,246,411 Bed Rentals 2,428,754 2,276,366 2,346,745 2,275,162 - - 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 Other 346,251 262,951 219,375 234,155 367,457 309,517 286,928 251,607 234,858 218,804 212,890 212,111 217,321

Total Revenues 15,891,518$ 16,240,412$ 16,113,064$ 16,327,817$ 14,804,282$ 15,449,784$ 18,147,205$ 18,661,128$ 19,199,971$ 19,759,174$ 20,334,269$ 20,934,542$ 21,545,856$

ExpendituresSalaries 6,010,141$ 6,883,678$ 6,142,559$ 6,839,350$ 6,920,097$ 7,074,799$ 7,232,962$ 7,396,634$ 7,555,277$ 7,717,329$ 7,882,863$ 8,042,649$ 8,205,685$ Benefits 2,168,128 2,588,829 2,082,506 2,704,178 2,797,402 2,906,027 3,009,563 3,116,142 3,222,218 3,331,010 3,445,943 3,557,045 3,667,555 Operating 3,772,358 3,765,363 3,765,363 3,712,870 3,664,787 3,701,435 3,738,449 3,775,834 3,813,592 3,851,728 3,890,245 3,929,148 3,968,439 Debt Service 2,574,622 2,061,475 2,060,506 2,061,650 - - - - - - - - - Travel 74,305 103,218 103,218 89,218 90,110 91,011 91,921 92,841 93,769 94,707 95,654 96,610 97,576 Capital 18,498 392,480 244,359 185,000 185,000 185,000 850,000 265,000 425,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 Transfers Out 16,790 60,389 29,658 44,137 11,080 11,302 11,528 11,758 11,994 12,234 12,478 12,728 12,982

Total Expenditures 14,634,842$ 15,855,432$ 14,428,169$ 15,636,403$ 13,668,476$ 13,969,574$ 14,934,424$ 14,658,209$ 15,121,850$ 15,227,007$ 15,547,183$ 15,858,179$ 16,172,238$

Net Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance 1,256,676$ 384,980$ 1,684,895$ 691,414$ 1,135,806$ 1,480,210$ 3,212,781$ 4,002,920$ 4,078,121$ 4,532,167$ 4,787,086$ 5,076,363$ 5,373,618$

Additional ServicesTransitional Housing: Staff 159,587$ 478,762$ 492,929$ 506,867$ 521,265$ 535,657$ 550,525$ 565,888$ 581,248$ 597,121$ Transitional Housing: Capital & Debt Service 1,100,000 1,350,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 Transitional Housing: Debt Proceeds (2,200,000) - - - - - - - - - Facilitiy Expansion: Staff 385,714 396,374 406,995 417,954 429,266 440,536 452,168 Facility Expansion: Operating 1,652,772 1,669,300 2,246,760 2,269,228 2,291,920 2,314,839 2,337,988 2,361,367 2,384,981 Facility Expansion: Debt Service 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000

Total Decrease for Additional Services -$ -$ -$ (940,413)$ 3,481,784$ 2,412,479$ 4,654,591$ 4,702,117$ 4,749,822$ 4,798,569$ 4,848,391$ 4,898,401$ 4,949,520$

Net Increase/(Decrease) in Fund BalanceAfter Additional Serivces 1,256,676$ 384,980$ 1,684,895$ 1,631,827$ (2,345,978)$ (932,269)$ (1,441,809)$ (699,197)$ (671,701)$ (266,401)$ (61,306)$ 177,962$ 424,098$

Beginning Fund Balance 7,285,282 8,541,958 8,541,958 10,226,853 11,858,680 9,512,702 8,580,433 7,138,624 6,439,426 5,767,725 5,501,324 5,440,018 5,617,980 Endng Fund Balance 8,541,958$ 8,926,938$ 10,226,853$ 11,858,680$ 9,512,702$ 8,580,433$ 7,138,624$ 6,439,426$ 5,767,725$ 5,501,324$ 5,440,018$ 5,617,980$ 6,042,078$

Assumptions:Merit 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Transitional Housing Debt Service 250,250 RecurringTransitional Housing Staffing beginning March 2012 (10 FTEs) 159,587$ 478,762 Transitional Housing Capital 1,100,000$ 1,100,000 Facility Expansion 3,897,474$ Recurring

FY11 Projected

JAIL DISTRICT10 YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN

Handout #5

FY11Budget

FY11Estimates

FY12Budget FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

District RevenuesProperty Taxes 5,028,462$ 5,028,462$ 4,600,357$ 4,370,339$ 4,501,449$ 4,726,522$ 5,057,378$ 5,310,247$ 5,506,726$ 5,704,969$ 5,910,347$ 6,117,210$ General Fund MOE 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 General Fund Loan - - - 230,018 98,908 (63,082) (228,511) (37,332) - - - -

Investment Income - 9,000 12,000 22,230 25,389 17,795 6,585 - - - - - Total District Revenues 8,767,695$ 8,776,695$ 8,351,590$ 8,361,820$ 8,364,979$ 8,420,468$ 8,574,685$ 9,012,148$ 9,245,959$ 9,444,202$ 9,649,580$ 9,856,443$

-

Mandates & IndirectsMandates (3,377,465)$ (3,187,665)$ (3,628,565)$ (3,772,848)$ (3,924,346)$ (4,051,603)$ (4,183,952)$ (4,321,594)$ (4,464,741)$ (4,576,397)$ (4,691,402)$ (4,809,857)$

Indirects (1,385,040) (1,417,519) (1,263,516) (1,276,151) (1,288,913) (1,301,802) (1,314,820) (1,327,968) (1,341,248) (1,354,660) (1,368,207) (1,381,889) Total Mandates & Indirects (4,762,505)$ (4,605,184)$ (4,892,081)$ (5,048,999)$ (5,213,258)$ (5,353,405)$ (5,498,771)$ (5,649,562)$ (5,805,989)$ (5,931,057)$ (6,059,608)$ (6,191,745)$

4,005,190$ 4,171,511$ 3,459,509$ 3,312,821$ 3,151,720$ 3,067,063$ 3,075,914$ 3,362,586$ 3,439,970$ 3,513,145$ 3,589,972$ 3,664,697$

Program ActivityProgram Revenues 1,223,929$ 1,178,997$ 1,259,239$ 1,295,780$ 1,358,553$ 1,406,872$ 1,456,981$ 1,507,634$ 1,560,115$ 1,613,079$ 1,667,906$ 1,723,145$

Salary (2,504,760) (2,564,224) (2,590,495) (2,622,775) (2,681,459) (2,741,462) (2,802,812) (2,862,066) (2,922,577) (2,984,371) (3,043,776) (3,104,367) Benefits (813,159) (825,093) (868,493) (900,402) (937,057) (971,252) (1,005,464) (1,037,605) (1,069,614) (1,104,312) (1,133,833) (1,160,073) Operations & Travel (983,947) (663,540) (985,857) (986,424) (996,288) (1,006,251) (1,016,313) (1,026,476) (1,036,741) (1,047,108) (1,057,580) (1,068,155) Capital - - (98,500) - - - - - - - - - Transfers Out (200,306) (154,789) (206,760) (194,960) (199,195) (203,406) (207,687) (211,831) (216,039) (220,420) (224,537) (228,599)

Net Use of Funds: Programs (3,278,243)$ (3,028,649)$ (3,490,866)$ (3,408,781)$ (3,455,447)$ (3,515,498)$ (3,575,295)$ (3,630,345)$ (3,684,856)$ (3,743,132)$ (3,791,820)$ (3,838,050)$

726,947$ 1,142,862$ (31,357)$ (95,960)$ (303,726)$ (448,435)$ (499,382)$ (267,759)$ (244,886)$ (229,987)$ (201,848)$ (173,353)$ Beginning Fund Balance - - 1,142,862 1,111,505 1,015,545 711,819 263,384 (235,998) (503,757) (748,643) (978,630) (1,180,478) Ending Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$ 1,111,505$ 1,015,545$ 711,819$ 263,384$ (235,998)$ (503,757)$ (748,643)$ (978,630)$ (1,180,478)$ (1,353,831)$

Public Health Services District: 10-Year Financial Plan

Change in Fund Balance Before Programs

Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance

Projected

Handout #6

FY03 - FY10 FY11

Budget FY11

Estimate FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 TotalRevenues:

Sales Tax 20,775,011$ 2,821,875$ 2,793,750$ 2,849,625$ 3,020,603$ 3,191,267$ 369,745$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 33,000,000$ Investment Income 1,767,327 190,000 45,000 64,676 73,516 35,432 - 9,426 9,708 10,000 10,300 10,609 2,035,993 Grants 844,304 6,159,921 6,159,921 - - - - - - - - - 7,004,225

Total Revenue 23,386,643$ 9,171,796$ 8,998,671$ 2,914,301$ 3,094,119$ 3,226,698$ 369,745$ 9,426$ 9,708$ 10,000$ 10,300$ 10,609$ 42,040,219$

Expenditures:Fort Tuthill Expansion 3,084$ -$ -$ -$ 1,378,361$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1,381,445$ Kachina Area Forest & Wetlands 895,370 805,554 - - 25,593 - - - - - - - 920,963 McMillan Mesa - - - 187,019 - - - - - - - - 187,019 Observatory Mesa 86,520 33,000 - 33,000 1,538,213 - - - - - - - 1,657,733 Old Growth Forest - - - - - 2,805,588 - - - - - - 2,805,588 Rogers Lake 103,640 12,509,124 12,509,124 1,100,000 - - - - - - - - 13,712,764 Walnut Canyon - - - - - 1,657,733 - - - - - - 1,657,733 Project Administration 2,077,234 402,038 401,928 370,204 377,608 - - - - - - - 3,226,974 FTCP Fairgrounds 131,526 1,588,558 52,055 2,036,503 337,577 - - - - - - - 2,557,661 FTCP Amphitheater 1,908,260 1,746,265 - 1,746,265 - - - - - - - - 3,654,525 Cataract Lake County Park - 50,000 50,000 417,649 - - - - - - - - 467,649 Navajo Interpretive Sites - - - - 374,078 - - - - - - - 374,078 Peaks View County Park 321,497 133,751 - 133,751 332,166 - - - - - - - 787,414 Raymond Park 352,795 810,949 811,571 - - - - - - - - - 1,164,366 Sawmill County Park 126,163 25,000 - 25,000 - - - - - - - - 151,163 Tuba City Park 3,207,106 18,501 9,000 9,501 - - - - - - - - 3,225,607 Doney Park Urban Trail 85,251 943,970 - 605,471 - - - - - - - - 690,722 Kanab Creek Trail - 46,760 - 46,760 - - - - - - - - 46,760 Water/Wastewater Project - - - - - - - - - - - - - Operations & Maintenance 1,884,480 560,913 560,514 560,832 - - - - - - - - 3,005,826

Total Uses of Funds 11,182,926$ 19,674,383$ 14,394,192$ 7,271,955$ 4,363,596$ 4,463,321$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 41,675,990$

Net Increase/(Decrease) 12,203,717$ (10,502,587)$ (5,395,521)$ (4,357,654)$ (1,269,477)$ (1,236,623)$ 369,745$ 9,426$ 9,708$ 10,000$ 10,300$ 10,609$ Beginning Fund Balance -$ 12,203,717$ 12,203,717$ 6,808,196$ 2,450,542$ 1,181,065$ (55,558)$ 314,187$ 323,613$ 333,321$ 343,321$ 353,620$ Ending Fund Balance 12,203,717$ 1,701,130$ 6,808,196$ 2,450,542$ 1,181,065$ (55,558)$ 314,187$ 323,613$ 333,321$ 343,321$ 353,620$ 364,229$

Coconino County Parks and Open SpaceLong-Term Plan: $33 Million Sales Tax Ballot Initiative

5/19/2011Handout #7

5/19/2011

FY10 Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Revenue

Property Taxes 1,972,685$ 1,849,864$ 1,849,864$ 1,587,609$ 1,508,229$ 1,545,934$ 1,669,609$ 1,753,089$ 1,840,744$ 1,932,781$ 1,971,437$ 2,010,865$ 2,051,083$ Less: Sedona Levy (288,574) (308,724) (308,724) (266,903) (253,558) (259,897) (280,689) (294,723) (309,459) (324,932) (331,431) (338,059) (344,821) Less: Williams Levy (100,370) (103,793) (103,793) (87,715) (83,329) (85,412) (92,245) (96,858) (101,701) (106,786) (108,921) (111,100) (113,322) Other Revenue 59,649 48,117 42,597 8,117 59,832 68,333 24,759 8,217 8,247 8,279 8,313 8,349 8,386

Total Revenue 1,643,390$ 1,485,464$ 1,479,944$ 1,241,108$ 1,231,174$ 1,268,958$ 1,321,434$ 1,369,726$ 1,437,832$ 1,509,343$ 1,539,398$ 1,570,055$ 1,601,327$

Flood Control Administration Expenditures 298,277 357,188 357,188 286,661 291,723 297,456 305,470 314,532 327,572 337,067 345,148 352,942 360,778 Schultz Fire Mitigation Staffing - 50,000 50,000 108,847 111,555 114,406 118,254 122,575 127,008 131,596 135,609 139,613 143,669

Net Available for Capital 1,345,113$ 1,078,276$ 1,072,756$ 845,600$ 827,895$ 857,095$ 897,710$ 932,619$ 983,252$ 1,040,680$ 1,058,640$ 1,077,500$ 1,096,880$

Capital Transfers 154,915$ 1,959,500$ 10,739$ 1,175,000$ 970,000$ 1,000,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,350,000$ 550,000$ 1,050,000$

Schultz Flood Response 8,715 2,766,743 2,766,743 - 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Schultz Flood Response Reimbursements - (242,960) (242,960) (1,004,460) (430,483) - - - - - - - - Schultz Flood Mitigation Projects - 2,215,757 2,215,757 - - - - - - - - - - Schultz Flood Mitigation Reimbursements - - (20,000) (1,146,796) (494,159) (189,595) - - - - - - - General Fund Loan - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - - Net Schultz Flood Response & Mitigation 8,715$ 3,739,540$ 3,719,540$ (2,151,256)$ (424,642)$ 1,310,405$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$

Loan RepaymentNet Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance 1,181,483 (4,620,764) (2,657,523) 1,821,856 282,537 (1,453,310) (702,290) (617,381) (566,748) (459,320) (591,360) 327,500 (53,120)

Beginning Fund Balance 1,377,283 2,558,766 2,558,766 (98,757) 1,723,099 2,005,637 552,327 (149,963) (767,344) (1,334,092) (1,793,412) (2,384,772) (2,057,272)

Ending Fund Balance 2,558,766$ (2,061,998)$ (98,757)$ 1,723,099$ 2,005,637$ 552,327$ (149,963)$ (767,344)$ (1,334,092)$ (1,793,412)$ (2,384,772)$ (2,057,272)$ (2,110,392)$

*Secondary Property Tax Rate 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$

Capital Expenditures Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Forest Lakes culverts 154,915$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Merzville & Sheep Springs Culverts - 64,500 10,739

Bader Rd Rio crossing - 425,000 - 425,000 Timberline Drainage Improvements - Phase I - 500,000 - 750,000 Kachina Village detention 70,000 - 70,000 Elk Place & Hillside Dr. drainage improvements 350,000 - 350,000 Mt. View Ranchos drainage 150,000 - 150,000 S. Snowbowl Rd 400,000 - 400,000 Hillside Drive drainage improvement 500,000 Turkey Trail drainage 500,000 Mountain Dell drainage box culverts 600,000 Clear Creek Pines 4, 5 & 6, drainage system 500,000 Pine Del drainage improvements 600,000 Spring Valley Road - replace low water crossing 450,000 Fernwood drainage improvement 700,000 Cedarwood Dr. & Bow String Rd - drainage improvements 350,000 Suzette Lane - install Rio De Flag stream crossing 600,000 Clear Creek Pines 3 & 7, drainage system 500,000 Cumberland Road 600,000 Kaibab Estates West drainage improvements 750,000 Timberline Drainage improvements - Phase II 550,000 Espee Road Stream crossing 1,050,000

Total Capital Expenditures 154,915$ 1,959,500$ 10,739$ 1,175,000$ 970,000$ 1,000,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,350,000$ 550,000$ 1,050,000$

Coconino County Flood Control District10-Year Financial Plan: Before Future Schultz Flood Project Match: $0.2000 Rate

FY11

FY11

Projected

Deficit

Handout #8

5/19/2011 Coconino County Flood Control District10-Year Financial Plan: Before Future Schultz Flood Project Match: $0.2000 Rate

Schulz Flood Response Expenditures Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Emergency Response & Supplies 8,715$ 2,766,743$ 2,766,743$ -$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$ Right of Ways - 1,688 1,688 - - - - - - - - - - Sunset Crater Mitigation Design - 230,088 230,088 - - - - - - - - - - Fernwood Drainage Design - 50,000 50,000 - - - - - - - - - - Drainage Master Plan - 320,000 320,000 - - - - - - - - - - Cinder Lake Study - 124,000 124,000 - - - - - - - - - -

Copeland Channel Liner - 700,000 700,000 - - - - - - - - - - Campbell Ave. Channel - 789,981 789,981 - - - - - - - - - -

Total Schulz Flood Response 8,715$ 4,982,500$ 4,982,500$ -$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$

Schulz Flood Response Reimbursements Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Emergency Response & Supplies -$ (242,960)$ (242,960)$ (1,004,460)$ (430,483)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Right of Ways - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sunset Crater Mitigation Design - - - (120,796) (51,770) - - - - - - - - Fernwood Drainage Design - - - - - - - - - - - - - Drainage Master Plan - - - (300,000) - - - - - - - - - Cinder Lake Study - - (20,000) (26,000) - - - - - - - - -

Copeland Channel Liner - - - (700,000) - - - - - - - - - Campbell Ave. Channel - - - - (442,389) (189,595) - - - - - - -

Total Schulz Flood Response -$ (242,960)$ (262,960)$ (2,151,256)$ (924,642)$ (189,595)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

FY11

FY11

Handout #8

HANDOUT # 9

COCONINO COUNTY LONG TERM STRATEGIC FISCAL HEALTH AND WELLNESS PLAN

STEP ONE: PRIORITIZATION OF LONG TERM CORE PROGRAMS AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS

Citizen Outreach Departments County Manager Board of Supervisors

Summer Citizens’ Survey Dept & CM Mtgsi Dept Meetings Review and Discuss Plan

June, July, Aug Community Mtgs with Board Community Meetings

Stakeholder Focus Groups

Presentation of Census Data & Trends; Review Revenue Options & Compensation Philosophy

Board Retreat #1ii

Fall Results Teamsiii Results Teams Present to CM

Aug, Sept, Oct Annual Leadership Retreat with Board and Directorsiv_______________________________

Winter

Nov, Dec, Jan Board Retreat #2v

Board Retreat #3vi

i Review of programs on basis of results and basic program/service attributes; review mandates, cost recovery, demand for program/service, citizen reliance on program/service; identify discressionary programs and levels of service with a goal of a three to five year transition; initial discussion on prioritizing preferred solutions ii Review historical role of county and evolution of current county programs and services; review services by area; mandates; core functions; role of County government and percent budget allocation by strategic priority area. Outcome = confirm the six areas for focus, identify specific questions on programs or services, explore mandates and begin to discuss board agreement on current percentage allocation of resources; begin discussion on prioritization of preferred solutions iii Create asset map of what others are doing, review map and strategies in light of the role for government identified by the Board, and review of prioritization of programs and service level options and preferred solutions. ivDiscuss Board agreement on percentage allocation per area. Presentations from Results Teams and small group discussion concerning role of the county, prioritized programs, mandates and preferred solutions. vReview prioritized programs and levels of service by priority area with some actual budget estimates/scenarios, review budget assumptions and percentage allocations.

HANDOUT # 9

vi Finalize budget assumptions, finalize allocation percentage by area, and reach agreement on the current prioritization of programs and preferred solutions going into the FY13 budget meetings.

Documents

FY12 Financial Update Draft - 5-10-11 (5) [Read-Only]