8/6/2019 FX Weekly Commentary May 29 - June 3 2011
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May 30th
2011 June 3rd
2011
Weekly FX CommentaryWeekly FX Commentary
Event Risk of the Week:** All times in (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time
(US & Canada)
Monday:
Tuesday: EUR: German Retail Sales,2am
EUR: CPI Flash Estimate &Unemployment rate 5am
USD: CB Consumer Confidence 10am
AUD: GDP 9:30pm
Wednesday: GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employmentchange 8:15
USD: ISM Manufacturing 10am
AUD: Retail Sales & Trade balance9:30pm
Thursday: GBP: Construction PMI & Inflation Report
4:30am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am
Friday: GBP: Services PMI 4:30am
USD: Non-farm employment change8:30am
USD: Unemployment rate 8:30am
USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing 10am
Trader Insight: Trade with rules:
m sure you all have experienced breaking a rule in some area of
life and suffered the consequence.Also pretty sure you felt like I
did once you looked back at when you broke the rule, saying to
yourself,
why did I do that". In life we all live by different sets of
rules that guide us to where we want to go. Theules are made to
reduce our risk and keep us on track to achieve our goals.
Trading is a game won with a clear cut plan to reach your goals.
Inside the plan needs to be clear cutules that you follow with
discipline. The rules should be wrapped around your trading plan to
keep you
on track. Once you have your plan, set the rules that will allow
you to achieve your goals. Following theules will be the key to
your success, you will see that most of your mistakes in trading
fall within a
violation of a rule you set. Make your plan set your rules and
trade your plan, this will bring you that muchcloser to all your
goals.
Trade of the week:
GBPJPY LongSupport: 133.22 132.80 132.64Targets: 134.17
135.14Stop: below 132.00
Look for cycle play up to 135.14 thisweek, look for move up on
GBPUSD firstand check event risk to pull up their,careful of
holding long above 135.00,opple after 135.14 then look short
plays.
Look for pullback to 132.90 for next bullmove up.
FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis
Currency/Commodity Market Focus Short TermComment
0-3 MthForecast
Support Resistance
EUR/USD EUR/USD hit 1.3968 on Monday, the pairs lowest since
March 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4315 byclose of
trade on Friday, jumping 1.32% over the week.
U.S. markets closed Monday, investors will be looking towards
Fridays data on U.S. non-farm payrolls to gauge theeconomic
recovery strength. A speech on Thursday by ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet will also be closelywatched.
StrongBullish
1.4500 1.4001 1.4422
USD/JPY USD/JPY hit 82.21 on Tuesday, the weekly high; the pair
subsequently consolidated at 80.77 by close of trade onFriday,
tumbling 1.22% over the week.
U.S. markets closed Monday, investors will be looking towards
Fridays data on U.S. non-farm payrolls to gauge theeconomic
recovery strength
StrongBearish
83.00 80.04 81.41
GBP/USD GBP/USD hit 1.6056 on Tuesday, the pairs lowest since
April 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6504 byclose of
trade on Friday, surging 1.7% over the week.
In the week ahead, markets are to remain closed on Monday for
holidays in the U.S. and the U.K., while investorswill be looking
towards Fridays data on non-farm payrolls to gauge the strength of
the U.S. economic recovery.
StrongBullish
1.6300 1.6266 1.6660
USD/CHF USD/CHF hit 0.8461 on Friday, the pairs all-time low;
the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8503 by close of
trade, dropping 3.26% over the week. U.S. markets will be closed
on Monday for a public holiday, while investors will be looking
towards Fridays data on
U.S. non-farm payrolls to gauge the strength of the economic
recovery. Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish officialdata on
first quarter GDP and retail sales.
StrongBullish
0.8900 0.8300 0.8662
USD/CAD USD/CAD hit 0.9815 on Thursday, a two-month high; the
pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9759 by close of tradeon
Friday, slipping 0.19% over the week.
In the week ahead, U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for a
public holiday, while investors will be lookingtowards Fridays data
on non-farm payrolls to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic
recovery.
Neutral 0.9800 0.9653 0.9815
AUD/USD AUD/USD hit 1.0718 on Friday, the pairs highest since
May 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0686 byclose of
trade, climbing 0.45% over the week.
In the week ahead, U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for a
public holiday, while investors will be lookingtowards Fridays data
on U.S. non-farm payrolls to gauge the strength of the economic
recovery. Meanwhile,Australia is to publish official data on first
quarter GDP and retail sales
StrongBullish
1.0100 1.0508 1.0888
NZD/USD NZDUSD hit 0.8196 on Friday, the pair's highest since
March 17, 2008; the pair subsequently consolidated at0.8188 by
close of trade, jumping 3.1% over the week, its biggest weekly gain
since late March.
In the week ahead, U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for a
public holiday, while investors will be lookingtowards Fridays data
on U.S. non-farm payrolls to gauge the strength of the economic
recovery. Meanwhile, New
Zealand is to publish official data on its trade balance as well
as a report on building consents.
StrongBullish
0.7700 0.7860 0.8214
NY Crude Oil OPEC is likely to increase production quotas to 27
million to 27.5 million barrels a day when it meets in Vienna
June8
Traders will be closely watching data in coming weeks for signs
of gasoline demand over the Memorial Dayweekend, celebrated May 30,
which marks the start of the summer driving season
Bearish USD120.00
USD92.60
USD110.71
Gold Gold ended the second consecutive week with gains on the
shift in the market sentiment and high uncertainty
andvolatility
As we start a new week, gold remains volatile and will be
subject to heavy fluctuations alongside the mixedsentiment, yet we
can surely see the upside support for the metal prevailing from the
high uncertainty.
Neutral USD1,500
USD1,361
USD1,577
* Note FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis
source Citibank Wealth Management & Forex Pros
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