8/6/2019 FX Weekly Commentary May 23-27 2011

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May 22th

2011 May 28st

2011

Weekly FX CommentaryWeekly FX Commentary

Event Risk of the Week:** All times in (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)

Monday: EUR: Flash PMI 3am-4am

NZD: Inflation Expectation 11pm

Tuesday: EUR: German Ifo Business Climate

4am

GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing4:30am

USD: New Home Sales 10am

JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Min7:50pm

Wednesday: EUR: GFK German Consumer

Confidence 2am

GBP: Revised GDP 4:30am USD: Core Durable Goods 8:30am

Thursday: USD: Revised GDP 8:30am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

Friday: GBP: National HPI 2am

EUR: German Preliminary CPI

CHF: KOF Economic Barometer5:30am

USD: Pending Home Sales 10am

Trader Insight: Fear of making the right decision:

Have you ever processed all the data necessary in making a decision on a trade, took time to thoroughlyevaluate the trade based on your defined parameters, when done made the call and walked away feeling

good? I'm sure most of you are saying sure, happens frequently with my disciplined trading style. Wellm sure some of you, like I have felt the fear that once the decision was made and action taken that itwas maybe the wrong decision. This is a natural emotion of fear that we all deal with everyday of ourves in all the decisions we make. It's critical that we stand by our decisions we make, no matter right or

wrong, when the work has been done to move forward with a decision. This is not time to second guesshe work, unless you feel the work was done inaccurately.

t's crucial to your trading career that you are aware when fear enters your thoughts. This awareness willallow you to assess the work you have done to logically walk away feeling confident with the decision.An exercise you can do to conquer this is: when you enter into this scenario, recognize it, write downwhat your feeling and why you are feeling that way. Identify if the work has been done accurately and ifyou conclude it has you will then have faced your fear of making the right decision.

Trade of the week:

USDJPY long

Support: 81.67, 81.48, 81.10

Stronger support at 80.58 and 79.56

Targets: 82.50, 83.30, 84.00

Keep stop below 80.58

FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical AnalysisCurrency/Commodity Market Focus Short Term

Comment0-3 Mth

ForecastSupport Resistance

EUR/USD EUR/USD hit 1.4345 on Friday, the pairs highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4158 byclose of trade, easing up 0.48% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be themain focus of attention, while the euro zone is to release a closely watched report on Germanys business climate.

StrongBearish

1.4500 1.4047 1.4345

USD/JPY USD/JPY 82.23 on Thursday, the pair s highest since April 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.69 by closeof trade on Friday, gaining 1.02% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus ofattention, while Japan is to publish data on its trade balance and retail sales.

Bullish 83.00 80.72 81.33

GBP/USD GBP/USD hit 1.6304 on Friday, the pairs highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6228 byclose of trade, easing up just 0.12% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be themain focus of attention. The U.K. is also to publish revised data on first quarter GDP.

Bearish 1.6300 1.6105 1.6304

USD/CHF USD/CHF hit 0.8746 on Friday, the pairs lowest since May 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8771 byclose of trade, tumbling 1.73% over the week

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be amajor focus of attention, while Switzerland is to publish official data on its trade balance and employment level.

StrongBullish

0.8900 0.8675 0.8937

USD/CAD USD/CAD hit 0.9653 on Thursday, the pair s lowest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9738 byclose of trade on Friday, gaining 0.53% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be amajor focus of attention, while markets in Canada are to stay closed on Monday.

StrongBullish

0.9800 0.9603 0.9739

AUD/USD AUD/USD hit 1.0710 on Friday, the pairs highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0657 byclose of trade, climbing 0.75% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus ofattention, while Australia is to publish data on private capital expenditure. The guide skips Monday, as there are norelevant events on this day.

Neutral 1.0100 1.0594 1.0888

NZD/USD NZDUSD hit 0.7997 on Friday, the pair's highest since May 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7955 by closeof trade, jumping 1.35% over the week.

In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus ofattention, while New Zealand is to publish a report on inflation expectations. The guide skips Monday, as there are

no relevant events on this day.

Bearish 0.7700 0.7860 0.8064

NY Crude Oil Crude oil pricesfell during this past week, settling below $100/Barrel. Heavy pessimism weighed down commoditymarkets keeping pressure on crude prices with investors growing concern over major global economies show signsof slowing growth.

In the week ahead important US economic reports are due out on growth, income and spending with an expectedheavy impact on crude prices. Price outlook is unclear expect oil volatility to dominate crude oil movement.

Neutral USD120.00

USD92.60

USD110.71

Gold Gold prices rebounded last week, adding 1.2 percent having suffered heavy losses over the preceding 10 days.

Looking ahead, three weeks until QE2 is completed expect an increased urgency behind the unwinding of goldpositions pushing gold lower in the process.

Bearish USD1,500

USD1,361

USD1,577

* Note FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis source Citibank Wealth Management & Forex Pros

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