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CCY Bollinger Band Commodity Channel Index Directional Movement Moving Average Conv/Div Relative Strength Index Stochastics Moving Average Moving Average Average True Range Current Signals EURO-USD buy 0.00 buy sell - - - - 0.01 GBP-USD buy buy sell sell - - - - 0.01 AUD-USD sell 0.00 buy 0.00 - - - - 0.01 CAD-USD buy buy sell sell - - - - 0.01 JPY-USD - - sell sell - - - - . Values EURO-USD 1.38 -30.29 21.23 0.00 49.04 15.60 1.39 1.38 0.01 GBP-USD 1.66 -183.58 18.19 0.00 39.33 10.41 1.66 1.66 0.01 AUD-USD 0.90 63.79 27.58 0.00 55.82 65.89 0.91 0.90 0.01 CAD-USD 0.90 -209.81 15.97 0.00 34.82 12.32 0.89 0.90 0.01 JPY-USD 0.01 -15.34 20.39 0.00 49.62 47.14 0.01 0.01 0.00 7 Days Earlier EURO-USD sell sell buy buy - - - - 0.01 GBP-USD buy buy buy sell - - - - 0.01 AUD-USD sell 0.00 buy 0.00 - - - - 0.01 CAD-USD buy 0.00 sell 0.00 - - - - 0.01 JPY-USD sell sell buy buy - - - - . 30 Days Earlier EURO-USD sell sell buy buy - sell - - 0.01 GBP-USD sell - buy buy - - - - 0.01 AUD-USD sell - buy - - - - - 0.01 CAD-USD buy - sell - - - - - 0.01 JPY-USD - - buy sell - - - - . Fear and Greed William's %R Momentum Rate Of Change Hurst Exponent Trender MaxMin MovingAverageOscillator ExponentialMovingAverage Current Signals EURO-USD greed sell 0.00 buy buy 0.00 buy buy sell GBP-USD fear sell 0.00 buy buy 0.00 buy sell sell AUD-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy CAD-USD fear sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell sell JPY-USD fear buy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy sell Values EURO-USD 0.00 -71.04 -0.01 1.09 0.44 1.38 1.38 0.01 1.38 GBP-USD -0.02 -90.85 -0.02 0.59 0.66 1.67 1.67 -0.01 1.66 AUD-USD 0.00 -32.02 0.00 1.18 0.51 0.89 0.90 0.01 0.90 CAD-USD -0.02 -90.46 -0.01 -1.92 0.48 0.90 0.90 -0.01 0.90 JPY-USD 0.00 -46.06 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 7 Days Earlier EURO-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy GBP-USD greed sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell buy AUD-USD greed buy 0.00 sell 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy CAD-USD fear sell sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell sell JPY-USD greed buy 0.00 buy 0.00 0.00 buy sell buy 30 Days Earlier EURO-USD greed buy 0.00 sell 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy GBP-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy AUD-USD fear buy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy CAD-USD greed sell sell 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy sell JPY-USD greed sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy FX Technical and Commentary

FX Commentary and Technical Views

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Page 1: FX Commentary and Technical Views

CCY Bollinger Band Commodity Channel Index Directional Movement Moving Average Conv/Div Relative Strength Index Stochastics Moving Average Moving Average Average True Range

Current Signals

EURO-USD buy 0.00 buy sell - - - - 0.01

GBP-USD buy buy sell sell - - - - 0.01

AUD-USD sell 0.00 buy 0.00 - - - - 0.01

CAD-USD buy buy sell sell - - - - 0.01

JPY-USD - - sell sell - - - - .

Values

EURO-USD 1.38 -30.29 21.23 0.00 49.04 15.60 1.39 1.38 0.01

GBP-USD 1.66 -183.58 18.19 0.00 39.33 10.41 1.66 1.66 0.01

AUD-USD 0.90 63.79 27.58 0.00 55.82 65.89 0.91 0.90 0.01

CAD-USD 0.90 -209.81 15.97 0.00 34.82 12.32 0.89 0.90 0.01

JPY-USD 0.01 -15.34 20.39 0.00 49.62 47.14 0.01 0.01 0.00

7 Days Earlier

EURO-USD sell sell buy buy - - - - 0.01

GBP-USD buy buy buy sell - - - - 0.01

AUD-USD sell 0.00 buy 0.00 - - - - 0.01

CAD-USD buy 0.00 sell 0.00 - - - - 0.01

JPY-USD sell sell buy buy - - - - .

30 Days Earlier

EURO-USD sell sell buy buy - sell - - 0.01

GBP-USD sell - buy buy - - - - 0.01

AUD-USD sell - buy - - - - - 0.01

CAD-USD buy - sell - - - - - 0.01

JPY-USD - - buy sell - - - - .

Fear and Greed William's %R Momentum Rate Of Change Hurst Exponent Trender MaxMin MovingAverageOscillator ExponentialMovingAverage

Current Signals

EURO-USD greed sell 0.00 buy buy 0.00 buy buy sell

GBP-USD fear sell 0.00 buy buy 0.00 buy sell sell

AUD-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy

CAD-USD fear sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell sell

JPY-USD fear buy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy sell

Values

EURO-USD 0.00 -71.04 -0.01 1.09 0.44 1.38 1.38 0.01 1.38

GBP-USD -0.02 -90.85 -0.02 0.59 0.66 1.67 1.67 -0.01 1.66

AUD-USD 0.00 -32.02 0.00 1.18 0.51 0.89 0.90 0.01 0.90

CAD-USD -0.02 -90.46 -0.01 -1.92 0.48 0.90 0.90 -0.01 0.90

JPY-USD 0.00 -46.06 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01

7 Days Earlier

EURO-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy

GBP-USD greed sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell buy

AUD-USD greed buy 0.00 sell 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy

CAD-USD fear sell sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy sell sell

JPY-USD greed buy 0.00 buy 0.00 0.00 buy sell buy

30 Days Earlier

EURO-USD greed buy 0.00 sell 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy

GBP-USD greed buy 0.00 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy buy

AUD-USD fear buy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy

CAD-USD greed sell sell 0.00 buy 0.00 buy buy sell

JPY-USD greed sell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 buy buy buy

FX Technical and Commentary

Page 2: FX Commentary and Technical Views

Country Period Survey Previous Revised

UK Feb -7.0B -25.4B --

UK Feb 8.6B -4.7B --

UK Feb 7.9B -6.4B --

AU Jan -- 0.80% 0.90%

FR 4Q F 0.20% 0.20% --

IT Jan -- -0.30% --

EC Jan -- 33.2B --

EC Mar A -12.3 -12.7 --

CA Jan 0.70% -1.80% --

CA Feb 1.00% 1.50% --

CA Feb 1.10% 1.40% --

Retail Sales MoM --

CPI YoY --

CPI Core YoY --

Industrial Sales MoM --

Current Account NSA --

Consumer Confidence --

Public Sector Net Borrowing --

Conf. Board Leading Index MoM 0.20%

Wages QoQ 0.20%

Indicator Actual

Public Finances (PSNCR) --

PSNB ex Interventions --

A quiet day for cable in terms of data releases today with only public borrowing data on show today. The

downword momentum should continue for the day. The resistance looks set at 1.6600 while a breather is

expected at 1.6400 with the big support being 1.6290.

AUD

Aussie continues to enjoy the upward momentum despite an upbeat in US and a slowdown in China -one of the

main trading parters of the country-. A fostering job market coupled with a recovery in housing has put

Australian Dollar in a relatively insulating position vis a vis softening oil prices and sluggishness in the main

export market for Australian Ores-China-. The currency is already trading in an expensive range and a breaking

of 0.9100 would certain temp aussie to test 0.9137- a good selling point-, On the downside, 0.9013 and then

below 0.8990

Economic Releases Calendar

CAD

CAD is being subjected to the ‘see-saw’ effect of Fed’s actions. With no other major data around the corner

except CPI coupled with BoC staying put with ‘hold’ stance, the CAD is being clearly driven by Fed’s actions.

Despite being backed by strong fundamentals (increasing Oil prices and Fiscal consolidation at federal level),

CAD has been trading in a range of 1.1000 to 1.1150 for quite some time after testing 1.1224 in January.

However, as the Fed announced a reduction in tapering off (in line with market expectations of USD 55 Bio A

month), the markets have markedly “over-reacted” to CAD by testing 1.1280. However, these levels are

unsustainable as CAD’s has adopted a ‘range-bound’ approach to depreciation vis-à-vis USD. Despite CAD

looking all set up to test 1.1300 there the developments in Ukraine are likely to support the case for a stronger

CAD. Firstly, the officials Russian Central Bank –World’s 5th largest FX reserves holder- have indicated that they

would be diversifying away from the USD and the money is likely to go into commos (CAD and AUD). Secondly,

the new finance minister Joe Oliver vowed to keep the fiscals on course for a surplus budget from 2015 onwards.

The CAD is likely to trade within the range of 1.1180-1280 with a downward breather at 1.1120. The CAD is

trading in a cheap range today since the expectations from today’s economic released are positive which would

tempt CAD to test 1.1045.

FX View

GBP

EUR

Euro took retreated as the Fed reduced its bond buying to 55 Bio a month. However, EURO is taking a breather

for the time being after testing 1.3750 yesterday. However, the news that european policymakers have decided

to grant ECB the powers to close down sick banks in Eurozone. The move should provide some comfort to falling

Euro against USD for the time being. Furthermore, A number of Fed Governors are speaking today and markets

will be looking at their interpretation about members of MPC indicating the policy rate at 0.75% by the end of

this year. On data, Italian industrial and EMU Consumer Confidence are due today. The short term immidiate

buy range looks good around <1.3720. The next big support is at 1.3480

JPY

A day off in Japan coupled with lack of data released today would likely see JPY witnessing a calm and thinly

traded market. While JPY seems to be trading in a `fair' range, levels 102.00/101.30 and 102.80/103.10 are

expected to be the soft\hard support and resistances.