Futurism Workshop Structured brainstorming about the future March 15, 2008 Futurism Workshop2 Why is the future important? Source: GBN Futurism Workshop3 Source: GBN Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling Scenarios, : the future looks clear Futurism Workshop4 Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling, : discontinuities happen all the time Source: GBN 1. Estimated 2. Actual Futurism Workshop5 Step 1: Determine Decision Issue Criteria Sufficient issue breadth, time range Possible examples What will science be like in 2020? What will US competitiveness be like in 2020? How will globalization impact science in 2020? Action: Group Brainstorm Futurism Workshop6 Step 2: Brainstorm Driving Forces PESTE Political Economic Social (e.g.; what will social aspects of science be like in 2020?) Technological Environmental Action: Group Brainstorm Futurism Workshop7 Step 3: Vote on Driving Forces Each person has 2 blank post-its Please walk up to the board and vote for two Driving Forces with your post-its The moderator will tabulate what the group finds to be the two most important Driving Forces Action: Group Vote Futurism Workshop8 Step 4: Map Scenarios Map top two Driving Forces to Scenario quadrants (example: customer demand and interest rates) High DemandLow Demand High RatesLow Rates High RatesLow Rates High Demand Low Demand Futurism Workshop9 Step 5: Small Group Deliberation Each of 4 groups is assigned one scenario Please spend minutes discussing what it would be like in your scenario (PESTE: political, economic, social, technological, environmental) Anti-Western Norms Pro-Western Norms Economic Growth Economic Stagnation Davos WorldPax Americana Cycle of Fear A New Caliphate Futurism Workshop10 Step 6: Scenario Planning Debrief Looking at the Decision Issue, (e.g.; What will the Philadelphia economy be like in 2010?), the group determined the two key driving forces of (e.g.; demand, rates) and discussed 4 possible future scenarios Next step would be forming an action plan for each scenario and a list of early warning indicators to track High Rates Low Rates High Demand Low Demand Scenario 1Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4