Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Augusta Maria PaciMaria Stella Chiacchio

ITIA-CNR

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008


Rationale

1. FTA in research and innovation is the relevant process for planning collaborative development of future industrial technologies.

2. New approach to technology foresight – coupled with the roadmapping and impact assessment for implementation.

3. The Rolling programme method to bring R&I forward processing multiple inputs from multiple stakeholders to produce a unique common direction for multiple stakeholders serving as a new input for action.


Rolling Programme: FRIM cycle

F R

IM

VISION

Foresight: demand driven process for future technologies with attractiveness and feasibility analysis.

Roadmapping: open process for screening and planning of the RTD prioritization of next generation technologies with feasibility and traceability of industrial expected impacts by time horizons.

Implementation: the process towards consistency of efforts for stakeholders interventions. Plans of priorities to minimizing threats, maximizing opportunities and reducing risks for new HAV products/services, processes and business models.

Monitoring: the assessment and evaluation process towards innovation knowledge capture and CBA.


Rolling Programme visibility

Rolling Programme ensures through Knowledge Management for Innovation effectiveness, efficiency and consistency to futuring-oriented technologies for production systems emerging paradigms.

The goal is to track and make the end to end visibility of the advancements towards turning knowledge into innovation.

EPPLab, 2008


The empirical study: Impact assessment

The autonomous study “Transectoral technologies’ impact on sectors”, carried on by EPPLab in the FP6 SSA Leadership project, deals with:

• RTD pre-competitive areas analyzing the industrial expected impact at European level;

• Industrial targets of innovation of 25 manufacturing sectors that are analyzed with regard to the futuring expected impact of 49 RTD areas;

• the synthetic Impact view that is in the “Initial Impact Matrix” consistent with the ManuFuture reference model.

Leadership Information Base

• 25 manufacturing sectors and Sectoral roadmaps;

•147 industrial targets from the industrial survey of 120 KOLs;

• 49 RTD macro areas published in the Overall ManuFuture Roadmap;

• 491 technology fact sheets produced by the Leadership Roadmapping.

The Background: Leadership SSA project


www.leadership-ssa.org Empirical study: Initial Impact Matrix

Main results:

• the cross-referenced demand driven prioritization of RTD areas

• 100 top topics for Call Topics for the Stakeholders and for the European Commission multi-annual planning in the FP7 Programme 4.3 “New Production”.

6 ManuFuture SRA Pillars Interested Sectors

temporal distribution of sectors’ innovation

http://www.leadership-ssa.org/


Application of demand driven Futuring Model

Demand driven

FRIM cycle


Empirical study: Operative method flow

INFORMATION ANALYSISof sectoral Roadmaps

Focus on:• sectors HVA targets;• Time horizon;• multi-sectoral perspective;• multi-technological perspective.

EXTRACTION Sectors’ targets

CATCHING

RELATIONSHIP

Sectors’ targets content and time horizon

Macro areas and sectors, giving:• Traceability of transectoral macro areas by the multiple sectors demand;• Visibility of time horizon;• Prioritization of macro areas.

Hierarchy of precompetitive innovation needs:1. A transectoral technology need2. A multisectoral need3. A sector need

• Initial Impact matrix• Twofold view matrix

SCOPESCOPE RESULTSRESULTS


Development of FTA in research and innovation

RESEARCH

(RTD Macro area)

INNOVATION

(Sector)

Focus Technological driver Innovation driver

Relation 1 macro area: n sectors 1 sector: n macro areas

RESULTS

Assess Multi-sectoral impact of RTD areas

Impact of transectoral technologies at sector level

Trace Transectoral feature R&D direction of sector innovation

Identify time distribution Time distribution of macroareas Time distribution of sector innovation

Prioritize Macro areas

(Common and advanced)

Transectoral technologies at sector level

Show the perspective Multi-sectoral Multi-technological

Empirical Study: twofold view


FTA in research: example of RTD Macro Area view

Demand: 25 Sectors

Offer: RTD Macro area

Direct element:Time horizonContinuous need

Indirect element:TraceabilityExpected impact (grey color)

Indirect element:TraceabilityNo expected impact (white color)


FTA in research and innovation for policy and decision making

The empirical study:

• supports European stakeholders, researchers, Industries and Policy Bodies at multilevel for competitiveness and sustainability to develop new capabilities to generate anticipatory initiatives that require impact assessment analysis to understand the entire transformation process.

• contributes to the direct involvement of stakeholders on planning and coordinating future actions in terms of R&D programmes, competitive calls and funded projects.

• responds to the need of “Sound Intelligence support” already envisaged by CREST Multilevel Policies Report, 2007.


Conclusions: a new futuring context

• to build an open environment networking industrial research and innovation communities;

• to develop new foresight method - from a linear to a complex approach - to respond to the increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain realms of today’s business and policy strategy in the Knowledge economy;

• to create a value upstream through availability of existing competences and of sound directions;

• to support FTA for Industrial Research with the rolling programme.

A new futuring context for research and innovation requires:

This is the new futuring context of research and industry stakeholders to operate more effectively and to proceed faster toward the common goal.


Acknowledgments

The authors are pleased to acknowledge Mr. Andrea Gentili, Coordinator for the European Commission of the ManuFuture Platform, and Mr. Jyrki Suominen, Scientific Officer of European Commission and Project Officer of Leadership project, for their precious collaboration and suggestions.

Acknowledgements are also due to ManuFuture European Technology Platform, to ManuFuture National Technological Platforms and to the Leadership Consortium.

A particular appreciation is to industrial key opinion leaders of about 120 companies and to roadmappers of research organizations involved in the roadmapping activity of the Leadership project.


Augusta Maria Paci

EPPLab Responsible

Maria Stella Chiacchio

doctoral student in Economic and Management Engineering

at “Tor Vergata” University in Rome

EPPLab of ITIA-CNR (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche)

Via dei Taurini, 19

00185 Rome, Italy

+39 06 4993 7870

[email protected]

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies