Futures Research Program

Futures Research ProgramFutures Research Program

Melanie Swan, FuturistMelanie Swan, FuturistMS Futures GroupMS Futures GroupPhone: 650-681-9482Phone: 650-681-9482Fax: 504-910-3803Fax: 504-910-3803http://www.melanieswan.comhttp://[email protected]@melanieswan.com

Bringing structure to the way we think about the futureBringing structure to the way we think about the future

Futures Research ProgramFutures Research Program 22

AgendaAgenda

What is Futures Research?What is Futures Research? Why a Futures Research program?Why a Futures Research program? Worldwide Futures Studies in AcademiaWorldwide Futures Studies in Academia Futures Research TechniquesFutures Research Techniques Futures Research Topical CoverageFutures Research Topical Coverage


What is Futures Research?What is Futures Research? An approach, structure and philosophy for thinking about the future An approach, structure and philosophy for thinking about the future

Formal quantitative and qualitative techniquesFormal quantitative and qualitative techniques

How does Futures Research fit with other organizational planning How does Futures Research fit with other organizational planning techniques?techniques? Most organizational planning is limited to forecasting, short-term Most organizational planning is limited to forecasting, short-term

(months, quarters) linear predictions with many data elements present(months, quarters) linear predictions with many data elements present Futures Research uses a variety of quantitative and qualitative Futures Research uses a variety of quantitative and qualitative

techniques to think more abstractly about the longer-term future (5-20+ techniques to think more abstractly about the longer-term future (5-20+ years out), identify potential discontinuities and compose strategies for years out), identify potential discontinuities and compose strategies for responding to whatever future scenarios occur responding to whatever future scenarios occur

Futures Research is not explicitly about making predictions Futures Research is not explicitly about making predictions Too easy to be wrong, hard to add valueToo easy to be wrong, hard to add value Incidental predictions arise such as the likelihood of certain trendsIncidental predictions arise such as the likelihood of certain trends


Why a Futures Research program?Why a Futures Research program?

The future is important and many institutions have Futures GroupsThe future is important and many institutions have Futures Groups Most branches of the US government (FBI, Army, Navy, DHS, DARPA)Most branches of the US government (FBI, Army, Navy, DHS, DARPA) Many non-profit organizations (AARP, American Cancer Society)Many non-profit organizations (AARP, American Cancer Society) A growing # of corporations (British Telecom, IBM, Hallmark, Nortel)A growing # of corporations (British Telecom, IBM, Hallmark, Nortel)

Futures Studies is a discipline, there are formal ways to think about Futures Studies is a discipline, there are formal ways to think about the futurethe future University of Hawaii and University of Houston offer undergraduate and University of Hawaii and University of Houston offer undergraduate and

advanced degrees advanced degrees A futures studies course is compulsory for all undergraduates in TaiwanA futures studies course is compulsory for all undergraduates in Taiwan

Useful offerings flow from the Futures Studies discipline; cutting Useful offerings flow from the Futures Studies discipline; cutting edge Futures Research is valuable to a number of audiencesedge Futures Research is valuable to a number of audiences People must be quickly and effectively informed of new technologies People must be quickly and effectively informed of new technologies

and ideas from a trusted sourceand ideas from a trusted source Pace of technology creation and adoption continues to acceleratePace of technology creation and adoption continues to accelerate New concepts are applying across industries (e.g.; open source, long New concepts are applying across industries (e.g.; open source, long

tail, tagging, globalization, interactive entertainment)tail, tagging, globalization, interactive entertainment)


Futures Studies is an important Futures Studies is an important global academic imperativeglobal academic imperative

Degree programs and/or research centers Degree programs and/or research centers University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii

http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/ University of HoustonUniversity of Houston

http://b3308-adm.cl.uh.edu/futureweb/http://b3308-adm.cl.uh.edu/futureweb/ Finland Futures Research CentreFinland Futures Research Centre Tamkang University, TaiwanTamkang University, Taiwan StellenboschStellenbosch Charles University, PragueCharles University, Prague


Formal Techniques: Formal Techniques: Quantitative and QualitativeQuantitative and Qualitative

Forecasting: Short-term linear extrapolation from

the present state

Scenario Planning: Unlikely but possible future

states of the world and accompanying action plans

Ecosystem Collaboration: web-based interaction between customers, vendors, end-users, financial community

Business Intelligence and Trend Prediction: How are competitive dynamics and

other forces changing

Systems Thinking: How system complexity

influences outputs

Simulation: Multi-party role play and experience of

impact of decision-making through successive steps


Futures Research: Topical Futures Research: Topical Coverage as of October 2005Coverage as of October 2005

New World Phenomena New World Phenomena The world is flat (globalization, localization); outsourcing, insourcing, rightsourcing The world is flat (globalization, localization); outsourcing, insourcing, rightsourcing New business models: open source, flat tail, collaboration, wikis, folksonomy New business models: open source, flat tail, collaboration, wikis, folksonomy News and entertainment trends, interactivity, gaming, metaverse-worlds, PVRs, flat News and entertainment trends, interactivity, gaming, metaverse-worlds, PVRs, flat

panel, HDTV, IPTV, storage is free, blogging, podcasting, vlogging panel, HDTV, IPTV, storage is free, blogging, podcasting, vlogging Communications: Skype; worldwide wireless broadband, mobile devices, wearable Communications: Skype; worldwide wireless broadband, mobile devices, wearable

computing, heads-up displaycomputing, heads-up display Institution evolutionInstitution evolution

Corporate citizenship, resource sustainability, poverty eradication, social Corporate citizenship, resource sustainability, poverty eradication, social entrepreneuring, meaningful work; post-money transcendence culture entrepreneuring, meaningful work; post-money transcendence culture

Rethinking institutions; government, law enforcement, patents, healthcare, Rethinking institutions; government, law enforcement, patents, healthcare, insurance, universitiesinsurance, universities

Long-term state of the world trends Long-term state of the world trends Demographics: global graying, young adults living at homeDemographics: global graying, young adults living at home Energy: worldwide rate of energy consumption declining, hybrids, alternative fuelEnergy: worldwide rate of energy consumption declining, hybrids, alternative fuel Decline of US and Western productivity; declining numbers of immigrants, PhDs Decline of US and Western productivity; declining numbers of immigrants, PhDs

and patents awarded, papers published, corporate scandals, Sarbanes Oxleyand patents awarded, papers published, corporate scandals, Sarbanes Oxley Rise of the creative class, services economy, informal learning Rise of the creative class, services economy, informal learning

Thank You!Thank You!

Melanie Swan, FuturistMelanie Swan, FuturistMS Futures GroupMS Futures GroupPhone: 650-681-9482Phone: 650-681-9482Fax: 504-910-3803Fax: 504-910-3803http://www.melanieswan.comhttp://[email protected]@melanieswan.com

Licensing:Licensing: Creative Commons 3.0

Documents

Futures Research Program